peace

Huffington Post…

NEW YORK — Osama bin Laden is dead. Now it is time for the peace dividend. That’s a phrase you may remember from the early 1990s, when Soviet Communism, the big existential threat of the second half of the 20th century, collapsed. Today, America needs a peace dividend even more than it did 20 years ago. But cashing it in will be a challenge.

Original post:
How America Can Use Osama’s Death To Better Position Its Economy

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Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) criticized the country’s current tax code as “a weapon of mass destruction” in a speech she delivered Saturday night to local Republican activists in South Carolina, the Spartanburg Herald-Journal reports . According to the local outlet, the Tea Party favorite called for the system to be abolished. “We need a radically different system,” she stressed to a crowd of nearly 200 guests. In speaking out on the state of the U.S. economy, Bachmann didn’t hold back in taking aim at President Barack Obama’s handling of the issue. “Our Peace Prize-winning president is very busy bowing these days to kings,” she reportedly said . “He is bending down to dictators, and he is brown-nosing the elites that are in Europe, and he’s babying the jihadists who are following Sharia-compliant terrorism.” Sharing her take on how the White House has handled the recent uprisings in Egypt and Iran , Bachmann suggested, “[Obama's] making Jimmy Carter look like a Rambo tough-guy.” The conservative congresswoman’s trip to South Carolina has led some to speculate she may be mulling a bid for the White House in 2012. Despite once denying a presidential campaign could be in her political future, the Republican lawmaker has more recently signaled a run may not be off the table. “I’m hopeful and very optimistic about where we’re going to go in 2012,” Bachmann said at one stop on her trip, according to the Associated Press. Bachmann has not decided if she will run for president in 2012. Her consideration is taking her to other early contest states including Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. She drew applause when she defended the tea party activists, saying they are simply people who think taxes and the deficit are too high and support the U.S. Constitution. Bachmann reportedly lauded South Carolina as a “GOP paradise.”

More:
Michele Bachmann: Tax Code ‘A Weapon Of Mass Destruction’

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David Isenberg: Outsourcing War and Peace: Part 2

January 9, 2011

Here is the second of five excerpts from law professor Laura Dickinson’s book, Outsourcing War and Peace: Preserving Public Values in a World of Privatized Foreign Affairs . Find the first part here. PMC supporters will be heartened to read her view that she does not believe the cure to more effective oversight and accountability is passage of more laws. She makes the point, which some have argued for years, that the main problem is in choosing to act, i.e., mustering the political will to do so, as opposed to finding the proper means. But insofar as means are an issue she make the case that tort law is just as effective than criminal or civil law. If, as we have seen so far in this book, the use of private military contractors is on the rise and unlikely to be eliminated in the near future, the obvious question is: How can these contractors be regulated and restrained? Even if the kinds of abuses described above are not typical, what mechanisms of accountability might be available when such incidents do occur, and how effective are these mechanisms likely to be? Each of the next four chapters examines a different possible mechanism of accountability and constraint and assesses its efficacy. Let us begin with the most obvious such mechanism: the use of formal legal regulatory systems, either criminal or civil, to hold contractors accountable for the wrongs they commit. This focus, in turn, leads to a new set of questions: What laws regulate these contractors? Might international or domestic law be applied to prohibit states from hiring private contractors altogether? Alternatively, assuming states do privatize, what laws exist to hold these actors in check? And finally, what accountability mechanisms can be used to enforce these laws, and how effective are they? This chapter answers these questions in ways that may be surprising to some. Contrary to the claim often made that private military contractors inhabit a virtual regulatory void, I argue that they are in fact subject to a broad legal and regulatory framework that seeks to control their behavior. To be sure, this framework has holes that need plugging. But perhaps even more important, privatization poses challenges to the organizational and institutional apparatus used to enforce existing laws and regulations. Thus, if we want to strengthen our legal and regulatory framework, we need to look beyond writing new treaties, statutes, and agency rules, and focus more attention on finding better ways to ensure that these treaties, laws, and rules have force on the ground. To begin, it is important to recognize that international law does not pose an outright bar to the use of contractors, at least in most circumstances.7 Protocol I to the Geneva Conventions, drafted in the 1970s, does seek to punish mercenaries somewhat, by denying them prisoner-of-war status. But even this protocol defines mercenaries narrowly and elsewhere both extends protections to indigenous guerrillas and preserves the rights of foreign military forces fighting on their behalf, clearly reflecting postcolonial debate and biases regarding the use of mercenaries in struggles for liberation. The International Convention Against the Recruitment, Use, Financing and Training of Mercenaries (drafted between 1980 and 1989) goes further, because it imposes criminal liability on mercenaries, accomplices to mercenaries, and anyone who “recruits, uses, finances, or trains” them. In addition, the convention seeks to impose an affirmative duty on states to prohibit, and perhaps prevent, mercenarism. Nevertheless, the convention on mercenaries, like the protocol, defines “mercenary” narrowly, requiring, for example, proof that the contractor was motivated by financial rather than ideological gain. Moreover, it is significant that, even with such limitations, the treaty took quite some time (until 2001) to enter into force–when Costa Rica became the twenty-second state to ratify it–and it still does not enjoy particularly widespread support. Likewise, though some countries, such as South Africa, forbid the use of military contractors as a matter of domestic law, such provisions are not common. And, of course, none of these provisions–international or domestic–would bar the use of contractors in the foreign aid context. Although states are therefore unlikely to be barred from privatizing altogether, both international humanitarian law and human rights law, as well as domestic criminal law and tort law, do place important limitations on contractors. And while this regulatory framework is more of an uneven latticework than a solid wall, I argue that the architecture is there, and it can potentially be used more aggressively in the future to better deter and punish abusers. On the criminal side, the problem is not so much an absence of applicable law (though there are holes that need filling) but rather the mobilization of sufficient political will to actually enforce the laws that exist by making important organizational reforms or through other means. On the civil side, although some important threshold questions remain unresolved, contractors could potentially be more subject to accountability through the tort system than are comparable governmental actors. This chapter is divided into four parts. The first part discusses the general international humanitarian and human rights law governing the use of force and prohibiting serious human rights abuses. Here, I address the extent to which this law applies to private military and security contractors and can therefore be used to place limits on their behavior. The second part surveys domestic law potentially applicable to private military contractors, focusing primarily on the United States. The third part examines the organizational and institutional apparatus used to enforce this legal framework, and shows how privatization poses particular challenges for enforcement. The fourth part then analyzes how useful this international and domestic legal framework is actually likely to be in holding private actors to account. Using the contractor abuse story from Abu Ghraib as an example, I discuss the various possible means of subjecting these contractors to criminal or civil actions. I conclude that, although international criminal prosecution is unlikely, the legal framework for domestic criminal prosecution is in place if U.S. government officials are willing to use it. Moreover, domestic tort suits are at least a possibility. Thus, while the mechanisms of legal accountability over contractors could certainly be improved, we should not leap to the conclusion that the mere fact of privatization eviscerates all legal oversight. To the contrary, as we shall see with regard to civil suits under ordinary domestic tort law, legal actions against contractors may sometimes have greater chances of success than similar suits against government or military actors. This does not mean, of course, that the existing legal and regulatory framework merely requires minor adjustments in order to cope with the growing use of contractors. Rather, my argument is that, contrary to what some have suggested, and contrary to the dominant frame in the popular press, we cannot solve the accountability problem simply by enacting more federal statutes to allow for criminal prosecution of contractors. Congress has already provided a legal framework for holding contractors criminally accountable, either in civilian or in military courts, when they commit abuses–but this framework does not work. To be sure, as discussed in more detail below, there are some jurisdictional holes in the law, and Congress could, and should, address these deficiencies. But the real problem is that neither civilian nor military prosecutors have thus far done much to enforce these statutes. As we shall see, prosecutors probably could have indicted the contractors implicated at Abu Ghraib under existing law–but they did not. This failure is evidence of a lack of political will, but it also suggests an absence of the critical organizational and institutional structures necessary to foster meaningful enforcement. Thus, the point of this analysis is not to say that the legal framework is sufficient and therefore we have no problem but to say that we should not be focusing exclusively on how to solve the supposed legal gaps regarding contractors. Instead, real accountability for contractors requires organizational and institutional arrangements that would encourage enforcement and help mobilize political will: law in action is as important as the law on the books.

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David Isenberg: Outsourcing War and Peace: Part 1

January 7, 2011

It’s a new year so it’s time for a new book on private military contractors. Out later this month is Outsourcing War and Peace: Preserving Public Values in a World of Privatized Foreign Affairs by Laura A. Dickinson. She is a law professor at Arizona State University. I’m in the process of writing a review and don’t want to give anything away but there is a lot of useful information here. So with the permission of her publisher, Yale University Press, I am going to post three excerpts from the book. Here is the first part. Privatization of Defense Department Operations It was not until the presidency of Bill Clinton that privatization began to penetrate deeply into the corridors of the Pentagon and other foreign policy agencies. Through the reinventing government program of Vice President Al Gore, the Clinton administration accelerated the privatization pace across all governmental sectors. But what is significant for our purposes is that in this period the foreign policy sector was also part of the privatization trend. At the DOD, Secretary William Cohen was a key figure. Caught between escalating price tags for weapons systems and political pressure to cut costs in the post-Cold War era without weakening the military’s capabilities, Secretary Cohen turned to the private sector for advice. During the summer of 1997 he assembled a committee that included leading executives from private industry to offer their wisdom about the road ahead. Cohen then proceeded to pursue a reform path that aimed to modernize defense by embracing the rhetoric, practices, and methodologies of American businesses.39 This embrace is perhaps most apparent in his Defense Reform Initiative, which he launched in the fall of 1997 as an effort to “aggressively apply to the Department those business practices that American industry has successfully used to become leaner and more flexible in order to remain competitive.” The four pillars of the initiative included the following practices: “(1) reengineer by adopting the best private sector business practices in defense support activities; (2) consolidate organizations to remove redundancy and move program management out of corporate headquarters and back to the field; (3) compete many more functions now being performed in-house, which will improve quality, cut costs, and make the Department more responsive; and (4) eliminate excess infrastructure.” To further these goals, Secretary Cohen proposed reductions of 33 percent in the number of employees in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, 29 percent in the Joint Staff, 10 percent in military headquarters, 21 percent in defense agencies, and 36 percent in departmental field activities. He also sought to make at least thirty thousand DOD positions subject to competition with the private sector each year for five years, outsourcing those that the private sector could perform better–dwarfing any previous outsourcing efforts. Thus, he sought to implement the troika of practices that had become the buzzwords of American industry in the 1980s and 1990s: downsize, compete, and outsource. While Secretary Cohen cut many civilian employees, Pentagon officials downsized troops and closed military bases, replacing uniformed soldiers with contractors for certain support roles. In the words of one senior DOD official, “The peace dividend requirement forced us to downsize. We had to reduce Army divisions from 18 to 10. But we didn’t cut all types of troops proportionally. We didn’t want to take the risk on the combat side. We took the risk on the support side. In 1991 we had 56 combat brigades. We cut the number down to 46. But if we had taken I down proportionally, we would have taken it down to 36.” Thus, the Pentagon increasingly came to rely on contractors to supply food, build bases, deliver latrines, and perform other support roles. Yet, at the same time, DOD cut its acquisitions staff by 38 percent. As a senior DOD official later noted, “Where we screwed up was not to cut the guys who buy the tanks and the big equipment; instead, we cut the guys who do nuts, bolts, supplies and so on–these were the guys who we were going to need as we turned more and more to service contractors. Thus, at the very moment that the military was turning increasingly to contractors to provide support services to troops, the Pentagon, under pressure from Congress, cut back severely on the acquisitions workforce that would become increasingly necessary to manage those contractors. Yet such cuts were politically much easier to make because, as Steven Schooner has argued, there is no natural political constituency for the acquisitions workforce.

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John Robbins: Who’s Done More Damage, Bernard Madoff or Alan Greenspan?

December 11, 2010

Exactly two years ago today, I received a phone call from hell. My financial adviser and close friend, with whom I had invested all of my family’s life savings, called to tell me that overnight we had lost 95 percent of our net worth. It turned out that our life savings had been invested in a fund that had been handled by Bernard Madoff. Because we weren’t direct investors (I didn’t even know who Madoff was prior to his arrest), there was no hope of our ever recovering a penny. Tragically, what happened to my family overnight is happening to many, many people today, only more slowly. It is one of the darkest nightmares of our times that so many people are losing their homes, their pensions, their jobs, their savings, and any semblance of financial security. The official unemployment rate is 9.8 percent, but if you include the underemployed (those who have part-time work but can’t find a full-time job, though they need one), and add in also the huge numbers of unemployed people who have given up looking for work because they feel the search is hopeless, the figure rises to above 22 percent. There are already 19 million vacant homes in the country, with another 10 million foreclosures in the pipeline. The average household credit card debt is nearly $16,000. And the U.S. dollar, which has been the world’s reserve currency for almost 100 years, is losing value and appears increasingly unstable. How did we ever get into such a mess? Last year, a Newsweek poll found Bernard Madoff to be the most despised person in history. Having been a victim of his fraud, I understand. But some people think that when it comes to wreaking financial havoc, Madoff was a piker compared to the man who was dubbed history’s greatest Federal Reserve chairman upon his retirement in 2006 — Alan Greenspan. Why? Because Greenspan may be more responsible than any other single human being for the disastrous developments in our nation’s economy. Author Matt Taibbi doesn’t mince words on the subject. In his new book about how bubbles and bailouts have decimated the U.S. economy, he none-too-subtly calls Greenspan “the biggest asshole in the universe.” Madoff lived high and mighty as a billionaire as long as he kept his Ponzi scheme afloat. Greenspan was revered as long as he kept the party going for the ultra-rich, as long as he kept one bubble after another inflated. But with every party, there’s always the morning after. The collapse of Madoff’s Ponzi scheme bankrupted not just tens of thousands of families, but many charitable foundations, nonprofit organizations, and hospital and school endowments. The bursting of Greenspan’s bubbles, on the other hand, decimated the entire U.S. economy, bankrupting tens of millions of families. In his biography of Greenspan, appropriately titled Greenspan’s Bubbles , MSN Money columnist William Fleckenstein recounts the devastating series of bubbles and crashes that directly ensued from Greenspan’s policies. The Savings and Loan scandal was the first tip-off. As a paid consultant for Lincoln Savings and Loan, Greenspan was an ardent advocate of Savings and Loan deregulation. When Lincoln’s parent corporation went bankrupt in 1989, more than 21,000 mostly elderly investors lost their life savings. This was, however, peanuts compared to what was to follow. With Greenspan as the head of the Federal Reserve from 1987 to 2006, and with his policies running the show, the tech bubble was inflated only to burst in 2000, closely followed by the real estate bubble that began to burst in 2007, and the credit bubble that burst in 2008. Greenspan’s policies contributed massively to each of these bubbles, and thus to their inevitable collapse. Like Madoff’s Ponzi scheme, they provided illusory returns, not based on any real goods, services or value provided, but rather on the attraction soaring returns have for new entrants into the game. The costs of each of these market collapses are measured not in the billions but in the trillions of dollars, and they’ve come so quickly on the heels of one another that we may think of them as business as usual. That’s why it’s important to grasp that, prior to Greenspan’s arrival, the U.S. had been nearly bubble-free for more than 50 years. The only exception? A brief mania for gold and other precious metals in late 1979 and early 1980. Prior to running the Federal Reserve, Greenspan headed the National Commission on Social Security Reform. The original intent behind Social Security was generous and benevolent. At the height of the Great Depression, our society resolved to create a safety net that would pay modest benefits to retirees, the disabled, and the survivors of deceased workers. It was the formalizing of the long-respected tradition of supporting elders and others who are less able to fend for themselves. The idea was to create less fear and more economic security. But once Greenspan got involved, things immediately began to change. His policies triggered a staggering transfer of wealth from the lower and middle classes into the hands of the richest members of society. It is not an exaggeration to say that the resulting concentration of money and power in the hands of the few is undermining the economy, corrupting democracy, deepening the racial wealth divide, and tearing communities and families apart. It was primarily due to Greenspan’s proposals that the Social Security tax rate went from 9.35 percent in 1981 to 15.3 percent in 1990. Social Security taxes are borne primarily by the lower and middle economic classes. They only apply to wage income, not to investment income, so people who work for a living pay through the nose while those who invest for a living pay not at all. Fair, right? Social Security taxes are currently capped at about $106,000. This means that a married couple who earns $106,000 a year will pay more than $16,000 in Social Security taxes. They will pay the same amount that Oracle CEO Larry Ellison and his wife will pay, even though Ellison’s income over the past 10 years was nearly $2 billion . A couple near the bottom of the economic ladder, earning $30,000 a year between them, obviously has nothing to spare, yet they pay $4,590 in Social Security taxes. Billionaire investors and hedge-fund managers, meanwhile, may pay nothing, because they can usually structure their income so that none of it is subject to Social Security or Medicare taxes. The policies that were implemented following the recommendations of Greenspan’s commission have produced, in the last 20 years, $1.7 trillion in new taxes borne almost entirely by the lower and middle class. There might have been some justification for this if the amount of benefits you would eventually receive was directly related to the amount of money you paid into the pool, and if the money was set aside for future Social Security recipients. Prior to Greenspan’s reforms, that’s essentially how things were done. But thanks to his innovations, this is no longer the case. The money is no longer held separate from the rest of the budget, and has been used instead for other government spending. It was George W. Bush’s first Treasury secretary Paul O’Neill who publicly announced the bad news. “I come to you as managing director of Social Security,” he said. “Today we have no assets in the trust fund. We have the good faith and credit of the United States government that benefits will flow.” It’s hard to avoid noticing that Social Security is increasingly taking on some of the characteristics of a legally-mandated Ponzi scheme. Bernard Madoff was a liar and psychopath who recklessly stole tens of billions of dollars. He will spend the rest of his pathetic life in prison. Alan Greenspan, on the other hand, is still widely admired. Not that long ago, he was almost considered a candidate for Mt. Rushmore. He was certainly the most influential proponent of financial deregulation in the last century. But a generation from now, who will history judge with more scorn? For practical, down-to-earth advice on how you can thrive in these hard economic times, see John Robbins’ new book, The New Good Life: Living Better Than Ever in an Age of Less . John’s other bestsellers include The Food Revolution and Diet For A New America . He is the recipient of the Rachel Carson Award, the Albert Schweitzer Humanitarian Award, the Peace Abbey’s Courage of Conscience Award, and Green America’s Lifetime Achievement Award. To learn more about his work, visit www.johnrobbins.info .

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Jeffrey Wasserstrom: Covering China for Marketplace: A Quick Q & A With Rob Schmitz

November 16, 2010

Over the summer, there was a changing of the guard in the Shanghai office of Marketplace , a radio program that has consistently carried smart reports about China. Scott Tong moved from the PRC back to the US (where he continues to work for the show) and former Peace Corps volunteer Rob Schmitz took his place. I had the pleasure of meeting them both in Shanghai in July and ran a post with the former in early August, in which he reflected on his time covering the China beat. Now, as a sequel to that post, comes a quick q and a with Schmitz, who recently did a great feature on Inner Mongolia (listen to it here, and check out the striking photos that he took to accompany the report here ), which among other things is a fascinating addition to the growing number of intriguing pieces, in varied media, on how life in the PRC is being transformed by the increasing importance of cars as forms of transportation and status symbols: JW: What story has been the most fun to cover for Marketplace since you arrived in Shanghai? RS: I just finished a series of stories on the rapid economic transformation of the Ordos basin in Inner Mongolia. All the big dreams, hope, and optimism that make life in today’s urban China so full of electricity seemed to shine even brighter in this tiny region. The area is making a mint off its status as one of the most prominent coal and natural gas producers of China. Nearly everyone I met there was either looking for investors or looking to invest. Both groups were overcome with a type of gold fever that made them fun to be around. One guy intercepted me on the airplane to Ordos and talked me into scheduling an interview with the CEO of his logistics company. When I showed up the next morning, I was ushered to the corner office. The CEO shook my hand without letting go. At the point where it started to become uncomfortable, a photographer appeared out of nowhere and began to snap photos. The CEO then released my hand and announced that he was too busy for an interview. They had gotten what they needed: a photograph of their leader with a foreigner for promotional material to attract more investors. But I fought for a consolation prize. After the paparazzi shoot, I asked my new acquaintance for a tour of the automobile industrial park his company was constructing. He was happy to do so, and the result ended up in the first piece of the series. Two days later, I met my Mongolian fixer. I found him through a mutual acquaintance, and we had spent the week prior emailing each other about the details of my upcoming trip and some of the rural areas where we could find ethnic Mongolian herders to talk to. I expected him to be middle-aged, possibly a former herder. Not even close. Baigaal was 24 years old, had a shaved head, and upon meeting me, had one question: “Do you like Eminem?” Baigaal was an aspiring rapper. He brought two of his college friends along on our day-trip through the grasslands. There we were: three ethnic Mongolians, my Chinese assistant, and me, crammed into a tiny Suzuki Swift, listening to a mix CD Baigaal had put together of Mongolian hip-hop music. All of the sudden the car goes silent. Two electronic gongs pound through the speakers. It’s ‘Beat It’ by Michael Jackson. Within a minute, we’re all humming along–Mongolians, a Chinese, and an American–as the grasslands of Inner Mongolia flash by outside our Japanese car… there’s nothing like Michael Jackson to make the world a little smaller. JW: What do you consider the biggest challenge to reporting from China just now? RS: On the surface, China is a journalist’s playground: It’s changing at an historic pace, it’s home to the largest human migration the world has ever known, and its fate has become intertwined with the world’s fate. The trick is to make sense of all this. China forces you to become a better reporter–you’re constantly having to check your facts, because what you thought were facts oftentimes weren’t facts to start with. It’s difficult to find the reality behind economic numbers from Beijing, and it requires persistent follow-up with a variety of economists, academics, social scientists, and, most importantly, laobaixing. Once you’ve got what you think is a reasonable amount of material to tell a story, then the challenge becomes trying to fit the nuance and complexities of China into a four-minute feature. The amount of material left on the cutting room floor could fill books. JW: What has surprised you most about how China has–or hasn’t–changed since you were there last? RS: After living in Sichuan as a Peace Corps Volunteer in the mid-90s, I’ve returned to China every two years or so as a journalist, and, like many who live here, I’ve learned to reset my expectations each day when I wake up. Anything can and will happen here, and the rapid pace of change makes surprises an everyday part of life. I just came back from a weekend trip in Hangzhou. My wife, son, and my mother, who’s visiting from the states, walked a few blocks from our home to the subway, where it took 20 minutes to arrive to Shanghai’s new Hongqiao train station. From there, we boarded a sleek, comfortable bullet train that whisked us to Hangzhou in 38 minutes. A trip that used to take 3-4 hours was now reduced to under an hour. As the countryside went by at around 220 mph, my two year-old sat in my lap with his forehead planted on the window, screaming in excitement at how fast we were going. I felt the same way. JW: During your first stay in China you were based in Sichuan and now you are living in Shanghai. Any thoughts you want to share, besides the obvious ones of infrastructure and access to international goods and the like, about how the two living experiences are similar and different? RS: My China experience has changed alongside my evolving career path and in tandem with the economic transformation of the country. In the 1990s, I was a volunteer teacher in the city of Zigong. My Peace Corps site mates and I were the first foreigners to live in the city since 1949. I lived on a hundred US dollars a month and it was my job to help people. Today, I’m a journalist in China’s largest city, I’m one of at least 150,000 foreigners in Shanghai, and it’s my job to pester people with questions. I make more money than I did during my Peace Corps days, but I miss the relationships I shared with my Chinese students and colleagues when I was a teacher. As a journalist, it’s more difficult to cultivate these types of meaningful relationships because you’re always rushing to meet the next deadline. But it’s not impossible. I’m working hard to establish a handful of sources from all walks of life who I can check-in with from time to time. It’s not a daily routine like I had when I was a teacher, but it’s regular enough to serve as a suitable substitute. On the flip side, being a journalist gives me the freedom to explore and analyze parts of Chinese society I was always curious about but didn’t have access to as a teacher. It gives me the opportunity to tell the stories of the Chinese people to an audience thirsty for more knowledge about this fascinating land. It’s a fantastic job. China inspired me to become a journalist in the first place, and I’m thrilled to have this opportunity. JW: Now that the Expo is over, any predictions on how it will be viewed in China a year from now, whether it will be thought of as a success, a failure, a bit of both? RS: I think it depends on whom you talk to. For the Chinese, I think Expo was a rousing success. Tens of millions of people attended the event. Many of them were from smaller cities throughout China and were making their first trip outside their province to ‘see the world’ in Shanghai. It’s easy to criticize the flaws of the event, and many foreign journalists did. But I think dwelling too much on the negative aspects misses the point that this World’s Fair really wasn’t designed for the international community. It was made for China, and the Chinese clearly benefitted from it, no matter how long the lines became and how tacky some of the pavilions were. For the more sophisticated worldly visitor, yes, parts of the Expo were a huge disappointment. To many, the mix of corporate and Chinese propaganda throughout much of the fair was an accurate reflection of a disturbing new world order. But for me, a former teacher in rural Sichuan whose Chinese friends were constantly dreaming of seeing the world and learning about different cultures and ideas, Expo gave them a chance to do that, and I think that’s great. * This piece also appeared today, under a different title, at “The China Beat” blog/electronic magazine.

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Julia Moulden: Over 50 and at the Top of Your Game? Here’s What’s Next

October 23, 2010

You’ve passed the half-century mark, and a question has been rattling around in your brain: “What’s next?” Recently, you answered it with a single word: “work.” And now you’re beginning to see that you can be part of something unprecedented, that the work you do later in life can be the most satisfying of your entire career. You can, as I describe it, “ripen.” Cool. But now a new question pops up. “What work, exactly?” Loyal readers will know that I’m writing a book called “RIPE: Rich, Rewarding Work After 50.” As I listened to ripe pioneers, I began to see a pattern emerging and plotted a matrix: along one side, the reasons people begin this journey, along the other, the possible paths forward. Where might you be on this matrix? For instance, you might have been successful in your chosen field and are now ready to try something new. You want to break new ground or implement innovative ideas, maybe realize a lifelong dream or assist in the birth of a compelling new vision. Arianna Huffington is a terrific example of this kind of ripening. At 56, she launched the Huffington Post. As a new media model, it would welcome voices not normally heard in the mainstream press: “curated news and instant intelligent opinion for an engaged community,” as she says. HuffPost quickly became one of the most widely read and talked-about new media brands. Many boomers will answer the question, “What work, exactly?” with, “Start a business.” Some of us will do it because it’s something we’ve always wanted to do, others because we can’t find work and need to create it. But hanging out a shingle is suddenly on the upswing, especially among people over 50. Just ask the folks at the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation , the world’s largest foundation dedicated to entrepreneurship. Their research shows that the average age of first-time entrepreneurs is now between 55 and 64. “The United States is on the cusp of an entrepreneurship boom — not in spite of an aging population, but because of it.” The Kauffman Foundation is referring to people like Lee Weinstein . Lee and I met when he approached me last year to introduce one of his clients, Icebreaker , an innovative sportswear company from New Zealand. I had no idea he was a ripe pioneer until we started chatting. Turns out he’d spent 15 years working for Nike and knew that it was time to get out and do something new. A two-year process of introspection led to him reinvent his work; he now runs a PR agency with his wife, who also worked at Nike. Not only are they doing well, with just the right number of clients (including Nike), but they have a more balanced life, with time to enjoy the pleasures of not working, too. Which sounds pretty ripe to me. Given the number of emails I’ve received — and the comments on the first few columns about RIPE — I know that you’re all over this idea. We’re eager to hear your stories, so please share how you plan to spend the years between 50 and 100-plus, or feel free to contact me directly via my website. And since we’re on the subject of valuing people of a certain age, are you wondering why this extraordinary group of people who called themselves The Elders aren’t getting press coverage? As I write, The Elders have been in the Middle East for a few weeks, making a unique contribution to the peace process. I know this because I get their media releases. But I haven’t seen anything about their mission in the mainstream media. What’s up with that? Julia Moulden is an author, speaker, and columnist. Read Julia Moulden’s HuffPost archive, including the first columns about RIPE .

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Richard (RJ) Eskow: Backdoor Bailout, Tea Party Fakeout: The GOP’s Secret $90 Billion Gift to Wall Street

October 22, 2010

GOP candidates are making a point of running against “bailouts” this year. Yet even as they rail about rescuing big banks, they’re working on a plan that would slip those same banks an estimated $90 billion in taxpayer money…and that’s just in the first ten years. “Fiscal conservatism,” anyone? It was always hypocritical to slam a bailout that they and their party initiated. But it turns out they were just warming up. Now they’re trying to pull a fast one on the American public, tapping Tea Party rage about big government spending even as they prepare to slip the big bankers some big bucks. They’re planning to siphon off $90 billion meant for America’s college students and their families and give it to Wall Street. Any Tea Partier who votes for these guys is being played for a sucker. The Republican repeal plan wouldn’t just put tens of billions of public dollars in bank coffers. It would also raise the maximum amount a graduate is forced to pay each year from 10 percent to 15 percent of income. And it would extend the length of time before their debt is forgiven from 20 to 25 years. Your GOP: Sending billions in taxpayer money to rich bankers, and squeezing young people starting out in life. Call it the New Populism. Small government? Less spending? The Republican Party’s backdoor bailout of wealthy bankers is bigger than the auto-industry bailout. It’s bigger than the home-loan program. It’s bigger than the lending program for small businesses. And unlike those programs, it serves no social purpose at all: This week, two Republican senatorial candidates were the latest to push this secret subsidy for Wall Street. Washington’s Dino Rossi and Mark Kirk in Illinois were obviously working from the same playbook, since they made almost identical points while declaring their opposition to this year’s student-loan reform. “You know, part of the takeover of government has been part of the student loans,” said Rossi. “I don’t think that we should adopt legislation that the Congress has moved forward to have a complete government takeover of all student loans,” said Kirk. Kirk and Rossi are talking about this year’s student-loan reform. That program eliminated a cushy deal that gave private banks a percentage of government-loan funds for “administering” loans (they weren’t actually lending the money). They performed their administrative duties both inefficiently and unethically. What’s more, the banks took a portion of their vig and spent it on lobbyists in order to keep the pot sweetened for themselves. It didn’t work — but if the GOP has its way, it’ll work next year. You’re not seeing a “populist” uprising on the right. You’re seeing lobbyist and billionaire money at work, channeling genuine frustration and anger into an electoral plan designed to help bankers get even richer. The “government takeover” argument is ridiculous, of course. In this case they’re talking about a government takeover… of government . This is the public’s money, and it’s intended to be lent to students and their families so that the dream of an ever-more-expensive college education is available to more families. Taxpayers support this program so much that neither Kirk nor Rossi could afford to criticize it. But not too many of those taxpayers would support taking billions of their dollars and funneling it to Wall Street, as the GOP would do. The “complete government takeover” statements are also absolutely false, since private students loans are still available. (See Pat Garafolo’s excellent pieces on Rossi and Kirk for more detail.) When private bankers managed the student-loan process, it was filled with rampant corruption that included kickbacks to school administrators. Millions of dollars meant for students were also stuffed in the pockets of lobbyists and politicians. (Details here .) And as for that “privatization” mantra we keep hearing from the GOP, consider this: The government created and funded Sallie Mae to help students get these government loans, and then privatized it. The result was a taxpayer-created and financed company that bought itself three private jets, paid bloated executive salaries, and threw government money at Washington pols (including a quarter of a million dollars for George W. Bush’s inauguration). (We’ve got more information on the loan program , and a rundown on the “private” Sallie Mae Corporation that includes a photo of one of those jets and their ID numbers.) Because of our current hard times — hard times brought about by the very same bankers who would get billions under the GOP plan — our student-loan program is even more important than ever. Unemployment and underemployment for college graduates is soaring. The average college graduate’s debt in 2009 was $24,000 , up six percent from the year before, and that’s before the full impact of the economic downturn. Diverting billions in federal student loan money to Wall Street under these circumstances is nothing short of obscene. But the GOP has made it clear that they’re in the bankers’ back pockets. Sen. John Cornyn, head of the Republican Senate campaign committee, indicated they would immediately move to repeal the financial-reform bill if they gained power. That would give their banker friends free reign to exploit consumers and take even greater risks with the economy. This $90 billion giveaway of government money — our money — is just part of a larger pattern. While neither Kirk nor Rossi were originally Tea Party candidates, they’ve both made their peace with the movement. Unnamed “Tea Party activists” from the State of Washington issued a letter of support for Rossi , while the formerly centrist Mark Kirk has flip-flopped on multiple issues in the last few months in order to pass Tea Party muster. Both candidates are part of a larger GOP plan to use anti-spending, anti-bank rhetoric in order to spend billions on subsidizing banks. Billions for bankers, benefit cuts for students. A “privatization” scheme that lets a few people get rich off government programs, promoted in the name of “less spending” and “less taxes.” That’s the system that these Republicans want to bring back and even expand. They want to use student loan money as a piggy bank for rich piggies, tapping taxpayer dollars to to enrich their pals. So my question for the Tea Party rank and file is this: Are you going to let the big banks and their politician cronies play you like this? Are you going to be a sucker? They’ve got $90 billion that says you will. ______________ About the table: The Department of Education Arne Duncan estimates the bank subsidy was costing approximately $9 billion per year, including the interest banks were able to collect . Given the rapid and ongoing increases in college tuitions, it’s not unreasonable to think that the total amount could be wind up being much more than either figure. I used the data compiled by the New York Times for the other figures. In every case, I used the highest possible figures for the final cost of each program, to make my estimates as conservative as possible. (I stayed away from TARP, even though we’re told it’s making a profit, because the total cost is still unknown.) The result was clear: This GOP’s planned Wall Street giveaway was the biggest and costliest of all the programs listed. Richard (RJ) Eskow, a consultant and writer (and former insurance/finance executive), is a Senior Fellow with the Campaign for America’s Future. This post was produced as part of the Curbing Wall Street project. Richard also blogs at A Night Light . He can be reached at “rjeskow@ourfuture.org.” Website: Eskow and Associates

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Nathan Gardels: To Balance Global Economy, Recalibrate Democracy

October 18, 2010

As the G-20 gears up to meet next month in Seoul, it is not surprising that the United States and China are at loggerheads. The “clash of systems” between America, the borrower and consumer, and China, the saver and manufacturing exporter, has generated an imbalance in the global economy that, if not corrected, threatens the peace and prosperity that has so far been achieved through globalization. That correction cannot occur overnight and cannot be economic alone. It depends ultimately on the recalibration of democracy in both the West and East. In China’s case, further democratization would include free labor unions and expanded rights for the rapidly growing urban middle class. Less censorship and more robust forms of political accountability would aid the reorientation of its juggernaut from export-led growth toward domestic consumption. Such changes would inevitably make the well-being of the household competitive, as a political priority, with the factory. China might learn from the policies of Asia’s development pioneers — Japan, South Korea or Taiwan — where income became more evenly spread as wages rose to capture productivity increases, and a credible safety net was put in place with high and broad levels of investment in education to enable the next generation to move up the value-added ladder. All these neighbors of China managed a middle-income transition by establishing the reliable rule of law that made government accountable, through freer expression and some sense of social security. In a developing market, confident expectations about how society will work widely stimulate greater consumption. In the U.S., political reform necessarily involves a shift away form the short-term political horizons and cultural habits of consumer democracy. Unless we can find ways to integrate the long-term perspective in governance and insulate it from immediate political pressures, it will be difficult to adopt policies that lead us back to fiscal prudence, revived productive employment, replenished savings and a middle class built on rising income instead of debt. Absent such a shift, there is certain to be a backlash against globalization — aimed with populist anger at China. Corrective policies, in other words, must seek to undo the way American and Chinese inequalities have played off of each other — a low-wage, export-led economy piling up huge reserves from overconsumption by an American middle class that fills the gap in its falling status through borrowing at rates pushed low by flush liquidity from China and an accommodating U.S. Federal Reserve. Former IMF chief economist Raghuram Rajan has argued that political pressures to compensate for America’s growing inequality gap over the past 30 years through eased credit by the Federal Reserve, abetted by huge Chinese purchases of U.S. Treasury debt, were a driving dynamic behind the housing bubble. Since 1975, Rajan points out, the wages of the 90th percentile of the U.S. population (the top 10 percent) grew 65 percent more than the 10th percentile. In 1975, the top 10 percent earned about three times the bottom 90 percent. By 2005 it had risen to five times. In an economy where consumption accounts for 70 percent of GDP, the gap between the American Dream and the American Reality was bridged by debt. In short, easy credit, not savings, enabled the demoted middle class to “keep up with the Joneses.” By 2007, consumer debt in the U.S. equaled 100 percent of GDP. Rajan sensibly worries that reigniting growth by encouraging renewed purchases of houses and cars through further easy-credit policies, even if it successfully avoids deflation, will only lead us back to an unsustainable bubble. In the U.S., the proper tax and education policies (because, in an era of technological change, education is the key variable of income differentials) as well as policies that foster infrastructure investment and domestic production would diminish the rapidly rising inequality Rajan documents. Fairer wage spreads in a developed consumer economy would enable the middle class to once again thrive on earnings and savings instead of seek to maintain their diminishing status through credit. Change won’t be easy. Vested interests in China favor export production industries and the associated political stability of continued rapid job growth that goes along with a strategy that has worked for decades. Vested interests and cultural inertia in the U.S. favor a return to the high consumption which has driven growth during that same period. China, at least, has the political capacity as an authoritarian mandarinate to change course from the top if the Communist Party is confident enough to heed the feedback signals of a burgeoning middle class that is demanding a more open society. Premier Wen Jiabao has said “the people’s wishes and needs for democracy and freedom are irresistible,” that “freedom of speech is indispensable for any country,” and that “without the safeguard of political reform, the fruits of economic reform would be lost.” It seems an equally daunting challenge to convince an open society used to living off of leverage to mend its ways. But if reality is the mother of fundamental reform in China, it can be no less so in the United States. © GLOBAL VIEWPOINT NETWORK/TRIBUNE MEDIA SERVICES

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David Isenberg: Putting the Lawyers in Lawyers, Guns and Money

September 28, 2010

Doubtlessly, Warren Zevon and writer of the legendary song, Lawyers, Guns and Money, would appreciate this, if he were still alive. By now you may have noted that I like writing about law journal articles on private military and security contractors. Perhaps it is just because reading them put me to sleep quicker than taking Sominex. Nevertheless once you get past the deadly eye glazing prose, at least to those of who aren’t lawyers, they do have interesting things to say. The latest to attract my attention is Military Lawyers, Private Contractors, and the Problem of International Law Compliance by Laura A. Dickinson , published earlier this year in the New York University Journal of International Law and Politics. Dickinson is Professor of Law, Sandra Day O’Connor College of Law at Arizona State University and author of the forthcoming book, ” Outsourcing War and Peace: Preserving Public Values in a World of Privatized Foreign Affairs . She accepts that private contractors are likely to become a permanent part of the military landscape. Her concern is how can we make it more likely that contractors will respect core human rights norms? She writes it will not be sufficient merely to focus on the degree to which these contractors are formally governed by international and domestic law. In her view, “the problem is much less about the formal legal framework and much more about the subtle ways in which norm compliance actually operates on the ground. After all, legal rules are often followed not because of the formal existence of a norm, but because of more inchoate processes involving how much the legal norm is internalized by relevant actors.” Specifically she seeks to understand how international legal norms are currently inculcated within the uniformed military, and then see whether those institutional structures are less present (or indeed are undermined entirely) in the private military context. To do so she summarizes conclusions drawn from a series of interviews she conducted with U.S. military lawyers in the Judge Advocate General (JAG) Corps. She says these lawyers, embedded with troops in combat and consulting daily with commanders, have, to a large degree, internalized the core values inscribed in international law–respect for human rights and the imposition of limits on the use of force–and seek to operationalize those values. In her view their stories strongly indicate that the presence of lawyers on the battlefield can help produce military decisions that are more likely to comply with international legal norms. Dickinson believes that: Differences in organizational structure and institutional culture (and not just differences in the applicable legal regime) may be principal reasons that the rise of private military firms threatens core rule of law values. In particular, the use of contractors may jeopardize certain aspects of military culture, both because the intermingling of contractors and uniformed troops on the battlefield may weaken public values within the military, and because contractors operating outside the military chain of command may themselves develop a different organizational culture and set of values that come to predominate in conflict and post-conflict situations as contractors assume ever-greater responsibilities. Thus, if we are to address how to maintain public law values in an era of privatization, we must take seriously the question of organizational structure and culture, its importance, and the ways it might be shaped. Organizational theory have long recognized that group norms and internal organizational structures can further (or hinder) an organization’s goals, as well as the goals of individuals within organizations. The central question is how best to ensure that compliance agents within an organization–such as lawyers– can most effectively bring about compliance with central rules and values of the firm as well as various public norms. Theory suggests such agents will tend to be most effective under the right conditions: (1) the accountability agents must be integrated with other, operational employees; (2) the agents must have a strong understanding of, and sense of commitment to, the rules and values being enforced; (3) they must be operating within an independent hierarchy; and (4) they must be able to confer benefits or impose penalties on employees based on compliance. Uniformed military lawyers–the career judge advocates–are essentially the compliance unit within the military. These lawyers work to ensure that commanders and troops obey the rules of engagement, which are the rules that operationalize the law of armed conflict in a particular war or occupation. Dickinson spends several pages describing in exacting detail how JAGs do this so I will spare you the details. But, and I’m sure you see this coming, in contrast, her interviews reveal that contractors largely fall outside this organizational accountability framework. While they may receive some training in the rules regarding the use of force, that training does not typically include updated advice on the battlefield about how the rules apply in specific scenarios likely to arise on that battlefield. Contractors also do not receive ongoing situational advice from military lawyers or even from private lawyers employed by the firm itself. Indeed, although the contract firms do employ lawyers, these lawyers do not typically spend time on the battlefield and do not have the same independent chain of command that is available to uniformed military lawyers. Finally, the accountability system that has applied to troops has not, at least until recently, been extended to contractors. Thus, the interviews suggest that many crucial, though subtle, mechanisms of compliance with public values are significantly weakened in the privatization process. I should take a moment here to note that many PMC advocates often argue that the discipline and accountability that former military personnel experienced on active duty somehow carries over automatically when they work as private security contractors. It’s as if a Good PSC Fairy waves her wand and these qualities are transferred over by some sort of magical osmosis. Of course, only those who have never served on active military duty could say this with a straight face. Anyone who has ever been in the military understands that due to the stakes the military invests enormous resources into processes like chain of command, command responsibility, and individual accountability. In terms of its scope and breadth the private sector simply has no equivalent. To understand why this is a real problem, consider the following excerpts from the JAG interviews: Judge advocates described a somewhat uneasy relationship between contractors and troops, and in particular, between security contractors and troops. Although they respected the willingness of these contractors to put themselves in danger, the judge advocates interviewed perceive security contractors to be more willing to shoot than troops and therefore worry about the impact of these contractors on the overall missions in Iraq and Afghanistan. … Judge advocates also reported that the attitude of the contractors seemed to have a negative impact on the troops, in part because the contractors did not need to follow the same military discipline. As one judge advocate observed, “Blackwater gave the impression, ‘We’re going to do what we want and we don’t have to follow the rules. We’re not in America.’” Such an attitude: was bad for us because the soldiers saw it. I would talk to company commanders, with 6-9 years military experience, supervising young soldiers putting boots on ground, on the receiving end of insurgents. They could see the Blackwater guy drinking, on steroids, not following rules. It fostered discipline problems. … A number of judge advocates reported that individuals who had left the military because of discipline problems but were later hired by private firms to work as contractors. As one judge advocate observed, “There were plenty of stories that a guy working as a contractor got court-martialed when he was a platoon member, and now he’s back making $100 grand [per year],” as compared to uniformed military specialists who only earn $20,000. As another judge advocate noted, “I used to hear that some of the contractor guys, security contractors and others, had been kicked out of uniform, not for serious disciplinary issues, but rather because they got administratively separated. Now they were making $80,000 riding desk at [the Coalition Provisional Authority].” Yet another judge advocate reported, “There are stories that circulate among the JAGs that a soldier who’s been kicked out of the army with a bad conduct discharge can turn around and earn twice as much working for a contractor. “While, as the judge advocates acknowledge, these stories may be apocryphal, they reflect the unease that the judge advocates feel about the ability of contractors to flout military rules without suffering employment consequences. … Finally, the judge advocates generally reported that the training of the private security contractors was not as extensive as for troops. As one judge advocate recounted, “We were told they received training in their own rules on the use of force. We were told that they received certification from their super visors, and there was a form.” But, as this judge advocate observed, “There was no looking behind the forms.” Under federal law, contractor employees must be certified as having no prior convictions for domestic violence, but judge advocates report that the certification process was “completely ineffective” because “while violence against women is a serious offense,” it is not the best indicator of whether someone will use a weapon properly in Iraq. And as for whether third-country nationals had a criminal record or had even been convicted of war crimes, “no one was looking behind the veil on this.” Of course, at this point PMC advocates would argue that new laws passed in recent years, mainly modifications to the Military Extraterritorial Jurisdiction Act and the Uniform Code of Military Justice, helps solve these problems. Uh right; here is what Dickinson says in regard to that: First, it appears that few of the security contractor firms have accountability agents or ombudspersons who are charged with monitoring abuses and who are actually integrated in the field with operational employees, as the judge advocates are. While the firms typically rely on their general counsel for legal advice, the lawyers in these offices appear to remain primarily at headquarters rather than deploying in the field. … Second, the employees of these companies seem to lack a strong sense of even what the applicable laws and norms are, let alone have any great commitment to them. For example, in congressional testimony, Blackwater CEO Erik Prince appeared to have at best a murky understanding of the precise legal rules and regulations that governed his employees’ use of force and available accountability mechanisms for the misuse of that force. Thus, he asserted that his employees were subject to punishment in military courts under the Uniform Code of Military Justice, even though the military had not yet implemented recently enacted legislation extending military jurisdiction to contractors, and even though UCMJ jurisdiction over State Department–as opposed to Defense Department–contractors had still not been clearly established. … Third, contract employees seem to receive insufficient training in applicable laws and rules, particularly those that govern the use of force. While such contracts often now require training, government reports and other investigations have suggested in numerous instances that this training has not been adequate. … Fourth, the fact that many companies use foreign labor complicates training and accountability efforts, as well as the broader effort to instill public law values. So what is to be done? While there have been a few baby steps taken, such as giving JAGs the authority to investigate and prosecute cases of contractor misconduct or allowing security contractors to receive training from judge advocates Dickinson aims bigger: A more ambitious approach would be to try to recreate the full panoply of organizational features for contractors that the military created post-Vietnam for its own personnel. Such features could be mandated either through terms in the contracts with private firms or through direct regulation. And though it is debatable how best to implement these institutional features outside the uniformed military context, it is clear that this is an area that should be considered seriously in any effort to reform the contracting process. Rather than seeking more commingling of government accountability agents with contractor employees, another possible reform approach would seek to encourage or compel contractors themselves to institute processes that would help establish the organizational or professional culture necessary to protect public values. Thus, through governmental regulation or independent industry efforts, contract firms might create internal organizational structures to enhance compliance with the public law norms and values this article has discussed. Such efforts would involve firms adopting the kinds of reforms that the military adopted post-Vietnam with regard to its judge advocates. These efforts include requiring contractors to establish compliance units or hire ombudspeople who would accompany operational employees in theater, advise commanders, report through an independent chain of command, and have authority to confer benefits and impose punishments. In short, the idea would be to create within firms themselves a cadre of lawyers who would be analogous to the judge advocates within the military.

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Gwen Ruta: How Did They Do That? Students Find $350 Million in Savings Over the Summer

September 16, 2010

Remember when a summer job meant scooping ice cream at the local Dairy Queen? Not anymore. This year, a crop of 51 bright young business students found $350 million worth of business savings over their summer break. As members of Environmental Defense Fund’s Climate Corps , these future business leaders were in search of energy savings in lighting and ventilation systems, data centers and retail spaces. And find them they did. Working at companies across the country like Adidas, Hospital Corporation of America, JCPenney and Procter & Gamble, the EDF Climate Corps fellows found enough energy savings to power 60,000 homes, and greenhouse gas emissions savings that would be like taking 67,000 SUVs off the road. So right now you might be scratching your head, asking, “How did they do that in just 10 weeks?” Certainly they had specialized training , strong financial skills, and a laser focus on energy efficiency. And if you met just one of them, you’d know that their excitement level was over the top. But as young people, they also brought the right mix of youthful ignorance and arrogance to their excitement. Take, for example, Jen Snook. An MBA student at Duke University and previous Peace Corps volunteer, Jen was completely ignorant of energy efficiency issues before she started her Climate Corps fellowship at AT&T . She found that AT&T’s equipment rooms are lighted roughly half the time, but occupied less than 10% of the time. Jen calculated that by installing occupancy sensors, AT&T could cut its energy use up to 80% across 100 million square feet, saving hundreds of millions of kilowatt hours annually. Or take Dylan Hedrick , an MBA student at Rice University, who worked with ServiceMaster on lighting upgrades and computer power systems at the company’s headquarters and branch locations for subsidiaries like TruGreen and American Home Shield. Dylan found $495,000 in potential savings and almost 8 million kilowatt hours/year in possible energy savings. But with a young man’s arrogance, he worried that his ideas would be forgotten when he left for school in the fall, so he enlisted the help of a new ServiceMaster manager to make sure that his legacy would be realized. Or Sarah Will. After graduating from Bainbridge Graduate Institute with an MBA in Sustainable Business, Sarah spent her summer at sporting goods retailer REI, where she uncovered almost $900,000 and 6.5 million kilowatt hours in annual savings. Thankfully, Sarah wasn’t daunted by the common wisdom that REI had already harvested most of its energy efficiency opportunities. When you’re young and idealistic and excited to make a difference, you’re not afraid to question long-held assumptions, you don’t even realize that you might be crossing the kind of organizational barriers that hold most of us back, and you believe to your core in the importance of your mission. And when that happens, you really can change the world. Jen, Dylan and Sarah certainly did.

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Curtis Valentine: The Economic Crisis: Is There a Silver Lining?

August 15, 2010

The Great Recession of the 20th century may very well have a silver lining. Once upon a time the notion of troubling a neighbor for a cup of sugar or flour was an everyday occurrence in America. During and after the only other economic crisis to be given the designation of “Great”, Americans utilized the informal system of bartering to supplement sparse foodstuffs they couldn’t afford themselves. The idea of borrowing and sharing created a communal system that fostered trust and reinforced interdependence amongst groups from similar socio-economic backgrounds. Over the past twenty-five years, the exorbitant increase in the American standard of living has had an inverse affect on our tendencies to borrow and share. With millions of Americans enjoying a flourishing economy, the idea of Keeping up with the Jones’ was given new meaning and the term community development was reserved for poor neighborhoods filled with America’s underprivileged. For all the Americans migrating to major cities and the immigrants arriving on our shores over the past century, this sense of community was the expectation not the exception. The recent age of overconsumption has caused the middle class to become less dependent on one another creating a level of independence that altered the traditional idea of community as we all envisioned it. For decades we have debated the role and importance of the middle class. Ironically, while we debated, countries around the world have sought to replicate the model of a middle class we have yet to perfect. The recent 2010 Ideas Festival sponsored by the Aspen Institute, thought so much of the subject that it assembled a panel of experts [including Huffington Post co-founder and Editor-in-Chief Arianna Huffington] to discuss Is America The Land of Opportunity: Taking a Hard Look at the Middle Class . One “Great Idea” emerging from the discussion was the notion that though the current economic crisis has brought devastation to millions of Americans, it can very well be the means by which America returns to the very system of community that formed the foundation for the country’s first middle class. For all the stories about the devastation brought on by the crisis millions of Americans are going through, there very well may be a silver lining awaiting them on the other end. In small towns and major cities around the country, Americans are choosing to use the institutions that were historically established to develop and strengthen communities. Formal institutions like the Community College are, for some, a way to better prepare for a 4-year college, but for many it’s a cost saver. The Pew Research Center and U.S. Census Bureau have reported a continuous increase in Community College enrollment due, in part, to the decline in household income brought on by the crisis. Approximately 11.5 million students, or 39.6% of all young adults ages 18 to 24, were enrolled in either a two- or four-year college in October 2008. Informal institutions, like carpools, often overlooked but incredibly important to building and sustaining community relations, are on the rise as well. The rise and fall of the American carpool: 1970-1990 , suggested that the most important factors associated with declines in carpooling to and from work in the US included increasing household vehicle availability, falling real marginal fuel costs, and higher average educational attainments among commuters. The economic crisis has reversed each of these indicators and, invariably, aided in the re-establishment of an institution on the decline. Necessity is still the mother of invention and the motivation to do more and invest further in one’s community has traditionally come down to need. Budget cuts in public schooling and policing has brought with it an increase in the need for volunteerism in our schools and in Neighborhood Watch groups. As cuts in the number of classroom teachers will invariably increase student-teacher ratios, already overworked teachers will have additional demands placed on them. In cases like these, the community will be called upon to fill in the gaps. Fortunately, in the case of public safety, we have seen how effective ordinary citizens can be if integrated into a larger system. Increases to participation in community institutions like Neighborhood Watch have resulted in a decrease in the crime rate as much as 41% in places like Orlando, Florida. With all the talk about preserving the institution of marriage and strengthening the American family, there has been little discussion about creating communities and institutions that can act as a support system or safety net for the families in times of need. The need is even more pronounced in single-parent homes that depend on extended family members, friends, and neighbors for emotional and financial support. The early 20th century American concept of community exists in the developing world and South Africans have even given it a name: Umbuntu. South Africans believe a person is a person , through other people and that only through strong personal relationships do we create and sustain community. The long-term benefits of a resurgence of America’s community-based institutions like Community Colleges and Neighborhood Watch can very well usher in the revival of community. Americans will rebound, the unemployment rate will improve, and if we’ve learned from our past, what will remain will be a middle class less preoccupied with overconsumption and more prepared to live a lifestyle of moderation and interdependence. If America can sustain the community institutions that have been built during this crisis, America will in fact stronger for it. Ultimately, Americans will be better prepared to support themselves and, most importantly, one another through the next economic crisis. Curtis Valentine is a humanitarian aid professional, community organizer, and political consultant. A 2010 Aspen Ideas Festival Scholar Fellow, Curtis is currently drafting a memoir documenting his experience as a Peace Corps Volunteer in post-apartheid South Africa.

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Katy Welter: To Be a Banker Is to Be in Heaven

July 28, 2010

As a kid, I knew a boy whose father was a carpenter. The boy learned how to use a circular saw at an alarmingly young age, and he and his father built a magnificent tree house that earned the envy of the grade school. Another friend’s dad was an FBI agent. The son never really knew what his father did, which ensured that the dad was perceived to be important, but the son didn’t learn a trade. My father was a banker. He ran a community bank in Valparaiso, Indiana for thirty years until the bank was sold against my dad’s and my every effort to prevent the sale . I began answering the bank’s switchboard at age 5. I couldn’t really read yet, so I memorized twenty or so extension numbers for the most frequently requested employees and departments. I passed off the phone to the operator–my first of many bank supervisors–when I didn’t recognize a name. At 9, I was filing paperwork for various departments, and at 15 I became a teller. I still remember when my dad tried to convince me that “Congress did a good thing today.” It was 1999 and Congress had just passed the now-vilified Gramm-Leach Bliley Act (GLBA). GLBA (pronounced glee-bah) freed commercial banks to engage in non-banking financial activities, such as insurance sales and stock brokering. I was seventeen years old. By the time the bank was sold, I had worked in and heard my dad’s philosophy about nearly every aspect of banking, from IT to Trust and Roosevelt to Reagan. Banking came as naturally to me as carpentry to my classmate. It got in my blood. It’s easy to suppose that I was raised with a sense of entitlement about the bank. But that wasn’t the case. I learned that the bank existed because of its employees and customers–not its shareholders. And that the money in the bank did not belong to us. We were its custodians. We mediated between the savers and the borrowers in an act of financial alchemy I now know to be called the “multiplier effect.” The process, as we’ve all learned, is more treacherous than a circular saw and as mysterious as the FBI. But I grew up with it, and came to understand and appreciate the magic of collecting one hundred deposits in order to provide one loan, which generates more deposits and loans, and so on. Upon my college graduation, my dad gave me a strange-looking picture I had made when I was nine years old. I’d drawn a large grey cat in a shirt and tie (presumably an illustration of my father, modeled after our family cat), wearing a familiar bank pin on his lapel. The cat stands in his office and next to a yellow couch sprinkled with dollar signs. Above the couch, I drew a brown wooden frame around the declaration, “To Be a Banker is To Be in Heaven!” I knew my place in the world earlier than most. After years of working at–and then trying to stave off the sale of–the bank, completion of law school, and finally, an exhaustive (but ultimately withdrawn) pursuit to form a de novo (new) bank, I find myself playing a new role in the world of community banking–as an advocate. From here on out, I’ll be blogging regularly about community banking issues–legislation, current events, publications, and generally about what community banks are and do and why they’re an essential and overlooked part of our economy. I stumbled upon this opportunity after becoming enamored with the Move Your Money campaign, which was co-founded by Arianna Huffington. I hope to support that campaign by explaining just what makes a community bank unique, useful, and deserving of your money. “To Be a Banker Is to Be in Heaven” still hangs on the wall of my home office as a reminder of the peace of mind I enjoyed for so long about the vocation. But now I can’t help but wince when I consider the philosophy. It was always odd and maybe absurd, but now it just seems tasteless. To be a banker is to be an embarrassment. But it doesn’t have to be. In this forum, I hope to show the world that there are banks where your money is safe, your fees are reasonable, and the service is friendly and competent. I bet there’s one in your community.

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Frida Berrigan: A Way Forward: Reexamining the Pentagon’s Spending Habits

July 14, 2010

Crossposted with Foreign Policy in Focus What is a trillion? It is a big number for sure. The best explanation I have found for this mind-blowing figure is from children’s book author David Schwartz. “One million seconds comes out to be about 11½ days. A billion seconds is 32 years. And a trillion seconds is 32,000 years.” What is a trillion dollars? What can you get for that much money? Rethink Afghanistan — Robert Greenwald’s effort to help us understand the war on terror, its costs, and consequences — has a new Facebook application aimed at breaking down exactly how much we can get for one trillion dollars. It is fun (in a qualified-world wide web-war on terror sort of way), and eye-opening. During one round of the game, we were able to spend $999.5 billion to: Hire every worker in Afghanistan for one year at a total cost of $12 billion;

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Toyota Lashed Out At Professor David Gilbert During Big Recall

July 10, 2010

CARBONDALE, Ill. — It’s the kind of publicity any university might dream about: An instructor uncovers a possible flaw that’s causing some of the world’s most popular cars to accelerate suddenly. His ground-breaking work attracts interest from Congress and reporters worldwide. But as Southern Illinois University’s David Gilbert sought to show that electronics might be to blame for the problem in Toyotas, the world’s largest automaker tried to cast doubt on his findings. One Toyota employee even questioned whether he should be employed by the school, which has long been a recipient of company donations. Electronic messages obtained by The Associated Press show the automaker grew increasingly frustrated with Gilbert’s work and made its displeasure clear to his bosses at the 20,000-student school. “It did kind of catch us off-guard,” university spokesman Rod Sievers said. So did the fallout. Two Toyota employees quickly resigned from an advisory board of the school’s auto-technology program, and the company withdrew offers to fund two spring-break internships. “I didn’t really set out to take on Toyota. I set out to tell the truth, and I felt very strongly about that,” said Gilbert, who was among the first to suggest that electronics, not sticky gas pedals or badly designed floor mats, caused the acceleration that required the Japanese automaker to recall millions of vehicles. Toyota insists its relationship with the school remains “strong,” and company officials say they have no plans to stop contributing to SIU. They also say the two Toyota representatives who stepped down from the advisory board did so merely to avoid any appearance that the company was exerting influence over Gilbert’s testimony. “We have absolutely no issues with SIU and retain an excellent relationship. That won’t change,” Toyota spokeswoman Celeste Migliore said. Driven by his own curiosity, Gilbert in January found he could manipulate the electronics in a Toyota Avalon to recreate the acceleration without triggering any trouble codes in the vehicle’s computer. Such codes send the vehicle’s computer into a fail-safe mode that allows the brake to override the gas. Gilbert said he reported his “startling discovery” to Toyota, and the automaker “listened attentively.” But Gilbert said he never heard back from the company, which has steadfastly maintained the problems were mechanical, not electronic. Next, Gilbert told the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, then made plans to tell Congress. “I didn’t feel I could just be passive in this,” he said. Along the way, Gilbert told the university in writing that he had been tapped as a consultant for a company called Safety Research & Strategies Inc., which asked him to study the safety of electronic throttle controls. Gilbert’s boss, Terry Owens, wished him well: “Good luck in your investigation,” Owens wrote in a Feb. 10 e-mail. “I hope it leads to public safety and publications.” One of Gilbert’s research partners, an assistant professor named Omar Trinidad, nervously asked Owens whether the findings would “negatively affect my tenure track or even jeopardize my tenure with SIUC? If you have any reservations on what we are doing, please do not hesitate to inform me.” Owens tried to reassure Trinidad: “If your investigations are upheld and have major impact resulting in papers, presentations, and national recognition of expertise, these are all factors that will benefit your research productivity.” Hours later, on the eve of his congressional testimony, Gilbert appeared in an ABC News “World News” report showing correspondent Brian Ross driving a Toyota rigged to quickly accelerate. When it did, a shaken Ross said he had a hard time getting the car to come to a stop. ABC News later acknowledged that a picture in the segment showing a tachometer with its needle zooming forward was taken from a separate instance in which a short-circuit was induced in a parked car. But almost immediately after the ABC report, media outlets began calling the school looking for Gilbert. By then, he was headed to Washington – without a cell phone. Hardly anyone at the university knew Gilbert was going to Washington to testify, Sievers said. The next day, Gilbert made his case to the House Energy and Commerce Committee, and lawmakers seized on the testimony as proof Toyota engineers missed a potential problem with the electronics. Gilbert’s appearance unleashed a publicity firestorm that Southern Illinois scrambled to control. E-mail chatter among administrators talked of the need to tout Toyota’s “very productive relationship” with the university. Within days, a product-liability attorney representing Toyota said company attorneys wanted to meet with Gilbert and university officials to discuss Gilbert’s use of donated Toyota vehicles and “related matters.” “We would like to explain our analysis of the situation and what we believe is a reasonable solution,” Vincent Galvin wrote. At the meeting four days later, Gilbert said, the visitors pressed him to justify his testimony – something he refused to do, saying he stood by his sworn statements to Congress. Gilbert, who owns a Toyota Tundra pickup, believes the meeting “was meant to maybe intimidate me.” The university asked Gilbert and Jack Greer – director of the auto-technology program – to fly to California to see a demonstration at Exponent Inc., a consulting firm hired by Toyota. “I wasn’t really sure what the point of the trip was, but to keep the peace, I agreed to go,” Gilbert said. Toyota did not wait for that visit to fire back. Six days later, a group of experts assembled by Toyota to refute Gilbert’s findings told reporters his experiments were done under conditions that would never happen on the road. Gilbert’s work “could result in misguided policy and unwarranted fear,” Chris Gerdes, director of Stanford University’s Center for Automotive Research, told reporters. His organization is funded by a group of auto companies that include Toyota. To Gilbert, “it seemed like an awful large amount of effort to be extended by a company to dispel something.” He was unswayed by what he saw in California. The pressure on him continued to build. On March 8, Mark Thompson – identifying himself as an SIU alum and, without elaboration, a Toyota Motor Sales employee – voiced in an e-mail to the university’s then-chancellor, Sam Goldman, his “great concern and disappointment” about Gilbert. Thompson said he was “deeply disturbed” by what he called Gilbert’s false accusations about the automaker. Thompson reminded Goldman that he and Toyota regularly contributed to the university – including a $100,000 check to the auto-tech program in late 2008 – and “due to the outstanding reputation your automotive technology program has, we donate much more than money,” including cars. “I ask you why your organization allows such activities to be performed by one of your professors and most importantly allowed to be reported to the media in a false manner,” Thompson wrote. “I believe he should not be an employee of our fine university.” Goldman later assured Thompson that “we are taking this matter very seriously for the reasons you cite in your e-mail and for our very strong desire to maintain our relationship with Toyota.” As a research university, Goldman added, faculty are allowed to research independently and publish their findings, while observing ethical and conflict-of-interest guidelines. Gilbert insists he never felt his job was threatened, though “there were some moments where I kind of felt I was standing alone.” Still, he said, if his work “can somehow make a car safer in the very narrow scope of electronic throttle controls … then to me it’s worth it. Because that could be someone’s life that I could be saving.”

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Banks With State Debt Ignore Not-If-But-When Default

June 11, 2010

By Niklas Magnusson, Elena Logutenkova and Aaron Kirchfeld June 11 (Bloomberg) — European banking shares indicate a Greek debt default may be just a matter of time. Investors have already pushed down financial stocks enough to imply the “erosion” in book value that may result from losses tied to a sovereign debt restructuring, said Dirk Hoffmann-Becking , an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein in London. A Bloomberg index of European financial firms dropped as much as 22 percent since April 15 to the lowest level since July. A $1 trillion aid package from the European Union and International Monetary Fund may delay a Greek default and give Spain, Italy and possibly Portugal time to get their finances in shape, averting a wider contagion, analysts said. Greece’s debt burden is likely to prove unsustainable, said Thomas Mayer , Deutsche Bank AG’s London-based chief economist. “Deficit reduction alone doesn’t solve the debt issue,” Mayer said in a telephone interview. He estimates Greece’s debt will rise to 150 percent of gross domestic product following the country’s austerity program, from 120 percent. “Hardly anyone I know believes they can carry it out and still not restructure. This is basically the expectation across all asset classes.” Writedowns stemming from a Greek default would total almost $200 billion, estimates Jon Peace , an analyst at Nomura Holdings Inc. in London. Banks globally could lose as much as $900 billion in a worst-case scenario where Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain all have to restructure their debt, Nomura estimates. ‘Prisoner’s Dilemma’ Banks holding sovereign debt are faced with a “prisoner’s dilemma,” said Hoffmann-Becking, referring to a mathematical theory that seeks to explain the behavior of two parties that can choose to either cooperate or pursue their own interests. “From an individual bank’s perspective, it would be great to get rid of the sovereign debt,” Hoffmann-Becking said by telephone. “However, if everybody did it you’d have a rapid collapse of the government bond market and then you’d have the default. And in the default, the fact that you have no sovereign debt actually doesn’t help you at all.” German financial companies including Deutsche Bank agreed in May to refinance maturing Greek debt and maintain existing credit lines to Greece and its lenders for the next three years. French banks made a similar pledge. A majority of European banks haven’t tendered their Greek sovereign debt to the European Central Bank, according to an informal survey by Morgan Stanley analysts. One reason may be that some banks bought their Greek bonds when they were trading at 20 percent above par, meaning a sale to the ECB would prompt a loss, Morgan Stanley’s London-based analyst Huw van Steenis said in a note to clients on June 9. Most See Default Deutsche Bank Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackermann said May 14 that Greece may not be able to repay its debt in full, adding that Spain and Italy are “strong enough” to service their debt following the EU aid plan, while this may be “slightly more difficult” for Portugal. Global investors have little confidence in Greece’s ability to solve its debt crisis, with 73 percent calling a default by the country likely, according to a quarterly poll of investors and analysts who are Bloomberg subscribers. Some 35 percent of those surveyed said a default by Portugal was likely, while more than a quarter said the same about Spain. A Spanish or Italian cancellation of payments would dwarf a potential Greek default. European banks’ claims on Spain totaled $832 billion at the end of 2009, while those on Italy stood at $1.02 trillion, according to figures from the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland. That compares with claims on Greece and Portugal of $193 billion and $240 billion, respectively. No Capital Needed EU banks could absorb losses on government and private debt in Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland without having to raise funds, Moody’s Investors Service said in a report today, after surveying more than 30 lenders in 10 nations. The value of private loans such as mortgages and business credit is greater than that tied to government debt, Moody’s said, adding that any losses on private loans would be absorbed over several years. “Based on our stress test, we believe that these banks would be able to absorb the losses that could arise from such exposures without requiring capital increases — even under worse-than-expected conditions,” the credit rating company said. While investors may have priced in the immediate costs of a Greek and possibly even a Portuguese default, they haven’t reckoned on the wider impact of such an event, analysts said. Valuing ‘Armageddon’ “If Greece defaulted in the near future, the ramifications wouldn’t just be banks holding Greek debt, but also Spain and Portugal and Italian bonds — and how do you value Armageddon?” said Gary Jenkins , head of credit research at Evolution Securities Ltd. in London. “The idea is to postpone reality. If it had happened in a disorderly manner in May, it would’ve been such a quick event that it would have been very difficult for authorities to control the reactions on Portugal and Spain.” Some analysts say the recent declines among European banks represent a buying opportunity on the grounds that a Greek default would be manageable and that Spain and Italy won’t have to restructure their debt. Nomura’s Peace said in a June 2 note that European bank shares are “attractive.” ‘Clear Message’ “The stocks are way too deep — I don’t think we’ll see restructuring and sovereign defaults,” said Dirk Becker , a Frankfurt-based analyst at Kepler Capital Markets. “Everything depends on making a bet on whether we’ll see a restructuring or a default or not, but the EU delivered a clear message and the IMF is in the boat and we have austerity measures.” Greece’s public finances began rattling investors late last year, when the country more than tripled its budget deficit forecast for 2009. Stock markets fell, credit default swaps to protect against a sovereign default rose, and borrowing costs climbed for indebted nations such as Greece, Portugal and Spain, as well as European banks. The euro dropped to a four-year low of $1.1876 on June 7. New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini said June 4 that an orderly restructuring of Greece’s public debt in the next 12 months may be necessary to avoid “massive losses” for the financial system. Orderly Plan He recommended stretching the maturities of the country’s debt by five to 10 years, capping the interest rate at a below- market level and maintaining the face value of the bonds at par to limit writedowns for banks. Further declines in the euro would also help sustain Europe’s economies, he said. Roubini, who predicted the global financial crisis, also remained gloomy on equity markets heading into a rally that lifted the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index by 80 percent last year. European financial firms trade at 0.85 times book value, compared with 1.06 times on April 15 and more than two times book value at the end of 2006, based on the 52-company Bloomberg Europe Banks and Insurance Index . Banks in Europe, on average, are pricing in an implied return on equity of 9.5 percent, below a “normalized” ROE of 12.5 percent, Hoffmann-Becking said in a May 26 note. Return on equity is a measure of profitability. The expectation for an erosion of book value is “particularly pronounced” for French lenders, Hoffmann-Becking said. Paris-based Credit Agricole SA and Societe Generale SA trade at an implied return-on-equity of 5.8 percent and 6.9 percent, respectively, he said in the note. Societe Generale published an after-tax ROE of 11.1 percent in the first quarter, while Credit Agricole didn’t report a figure. Priced In Both banks have subsidiaries in Greece. Credit Agricole’s Emporiki Bank of Greece SA had 22 billion euros ($26.6 billion) of loans at the end of March, according to company reports. Societe Generale owns 54 percent of Greece’s Geniki Bank SA, which had 4 billion euros of loans and advances at the end of the quarter, according to the Athens-based lender’s website. “If you look at some of the names like Credit Agricole or Societe Generale, they’re trading well below tangible book and so you’re looking at some 20 percent to 25 percent cuts to equity,” Hoffmann-Becking said in a telephone interview. “I think that certainly covers the primary effects of a potential writedown on Greek, Irish or Portuguese debt. The thing that we may not have priced in, in full, is secondary and tertiary effects.” French banks had claims on Greece of $78.8 billion at the end of 2009, the most of any country, according to BIS figures. In Germany, where banks’ Greek claims totaled $45 billion, the risks probably lie mostly with Landesbanks and government-owned lenders that aren’t publicly traded, Hoffmann-Becking said. To contact the reporters on this story: Aaron Kirchfeld in Frankfurt at akirchfeld@bloomberg.net Elena Logutenkova in Zurich at elogutenkova@bloomberg.net Niklas Magnusson in Stockholm at nmagnusson1@bloomberg.net

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EU Banks Holding Sovereign Debt Ignore Not-If-But-When Scenario of Default

June 10, 2010

By Niklas Magnusson, Elena Logutenkova and Aaron Kirchfeld June 11 (Bloomberg) — European banking shares indicate a Greek debt default may be just a matter of time. Investors have already pushed down financial stocks enough to imply the “erosion” in book value that may result from losses tied to a sovereign debt restructuring, said Dirk Hoffmann-Becking , an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein in London. A Bloomberg index of European financial firms dropped as much as 22 percent since April 15 to the lowest level since July. A $1 trillion aid package from the European Union and International Monetary Fund may delay a Greek default and give Spain, Italy and possibly Portugal time to get their finances in shape, averting a wider contagion, analysts said. Greece’s debt burden is likely to prove unsustainable, said Thomas Mayer , Deutsche Bank AG’s London-based chief economist. “Deficit reduction alone doesn’t solve the debt issue,” Mayer said in a telephone interview. He estimates Greece’s debt will rise to 150 percent of gross domestic product following the country’s austerity program, from 120 percent. “Hardly anyone I know believes they can carry it out and still not restructure. This is basically the expectation across all asset classes.” Writedowns stemming from a Greek default would total almost $200 billion, estimates Jon Peace , an analyst at Nomura Holdings Inc. in London. Banks globally could lose as much as $900 billion in a worst-case scenario where Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain all have to restructure their debt, Nomura estimates. ‘Prisoner’s Dilemma’ Banks holding sovereign debt are faced with a “prisoner’s dilemma,” said Hoffmann-Becking, referring to a mathematical theory that seeks to explain the behavior of two parties that can choose to either cooperate or pursue their own interests. “From an individual bank’s perspective, it would be great to get rid of the sovereign debt,” Hoffmann-Becking said by telephone. “However, if everybody did it you’d have a rapid collapse of the government bond market and then you’d have the default. And in the default, the fact that you have no sovereign debt actually doesn’t help you at all.” German financial companies including Deutsche Bank agreed in May to refinance maturing Greek debt and maintain existing credit lines to Greece and its lenders for the next three years. French banks made a similar pledge. A majority of European banks haven’t tendered their Greek sovereign debt to the European Central Bank, according to an informal survey by Morgan Stanley analysts. One reason may be that some banks bought their Greek bonds when they were trading at 20 percent above par, meaning a sale to the ECB would prompt a loss, Morgan Stanley’s London-based analyst Huw van Steenis said in a note to clients on June 9. Most See Default Deutsche Bank Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackermann said May 14 that Greece may not be able to repay its debt in full, adding that Spain and Italy are “strong enough” to service their debt following the EU aid plan, while this may be “slightly more difficult” for Portugal. Global investors have little confidence in Greece’s ability to solve its debt crisis, with 73 percent calling a default by the country likely, according to a quarterly poll of investors and analysts who are Bloomberg subscribers. Some 35 percent of those surveyed said a default by Portugal was likely, while more than a quarter said the same about Spain. A Spanish or Italian cancellation of payments would dwarf a potential Greek default. European banks’ claims on Spain totaled $832 billion at the end of 2009, while those on Italy stood at $1.02 trillion, according to figures from the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland. That compares with claims on Greece and Portugal of $193 billion and $240 billion, respectively. Valuing ‘Armageddon’ While investors may have priced in the immediate costs of a Greek and possibly even a Portuguese default, they haven’t reckoned on the wider impact of such an event, analysts said. “If Greece defaulted in the near future, the ramifications wouldn’t just be banks holding Greek debt, but also Spain and Portugal and Italian bonds — and how do you value Armageddon?” said Gary Jenkins , head of credit research at Evolution Securities Ltd. in London. “The idea is to postpone reality. If it had happened in a disorderly manner in May, it would’ve been such a quick event that it would have been very difficult for authorities to control the reactions on Portugal and Spain.” Some analysts say the recent declines among European banks represent a buying opportunity on the grounds that a Greek default would be manageable and that Spain and Italy won’t have to restructure their debt. Nomura’s Peace said in a June 2 note that European bank shares are “attractive.” ‘Clear Message’ “The stocks are way too deep — I don’t think we’ll see restructuring and sovereign defaults,” said Dirk Becker , a Frankfurt-based analyst at Kepler Capital Markets. “Everything depends on making a bet on whether we’ll see a restructuring or a default or not, but the EU delivered a clear message and the IMF is in the boat and we have austerity measures.” Greece’s public finances began rattling investors late last year, when the country more than tripled its budget deficit forecast for 2009. Stock markets fell, credit default swaps to protect against a sovereign default rose, and borrowing costs climbed for indebted nations such as Greece, Portugal and Spain, as well as European banks. The euro dropped to a four-year low of $1.1876 on June 7. New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini said June 4 that an orderly restructuring of Greece’s public debt in the next 12 months may be necessary to avoid “massive losses” for the financial system. Orderly Plan He recommended stretching the maturities of the country’s debt by five to 10 years, capping the interest rate at a below- market level and maintaining the face value of the bonds at par to limit writedowns for banks. Further declines in the euro would also help sustain Europe’s economies, he said. Roubini, who predicted the global financial crisis, also remained gloomy on equity markets heading into a rally that lifted the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index by 80 percent last year. European financial firms trade at 0.85 times book value, compared with 1.06 times on April 15 and more than two times book value at the end of 2006, based on the 52-company Bloomberg Europe Banks and Insurance Index . Banks in Europe, on average, are pricing in an implied return on equity of 9.5 percent, below a “normalized” ROE of 12.5 percent, Hoffmann-Becking said in a May 26 note. Return on equity is a measure of profitability. The expectation for an erosion of book value is “particularly pronounced” for French lenders, Hoffmann-Becking said. Paris-based Credit Agricole SA and Societe Generale SA trade at an implied return-on-equity of 5.8 percent and 6.9 percent, respectively, he said in the note. Societe Generale published an after-tax ROE of 11.1 percent in the first quarter, while Credit Agricole didn’t report a figure. Priced In Both banks have subsidiaries in Greece. Credit Agricole’s Emporiki Bank of Greece SA had 22 billion euros ($26.6 billion) of loans at the end of March, according to company reports. Societe Generale owns 54 percent of Greece’s Geniki Bank SA, which had 4 billion euros of loans and advances at the end of the quarter, according to the Athens-based lender’s website. “If you look at some of the names like Credit Agricole or Societe Generale, they’re trading well below tangible book and so you’re looking at some 20 percent to 25 percent cuts to equity,” Hoffmann-Becking said in a telephone interview. “I think that certainly covers the primary effects of a potential writedown on Greek, Irish or Portuguese debt. The thing that we may not have priced in, in full, is secondary and tertiary effects.” French banks had claims on Greece of $78.8 billion at the end of 2009, the most of any country, according to BIS figures. In Germany, where banks’ Greek claims totaled $45 billion, the risks probably lie mostly with Landesbanks and government-owned lenders that aren’t publicly traded, Hoffmann-Becking said. To contact the reporters on this story: Aaron Kirchfeld in Frankfurt at akirchfeld@bloomberg.net Elena Logutenkova in Zurich at elogutenkova@bloomberg.net Niklas Magnusson in Stockholm at nmagnusson1@bloomberg.net

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Obama Tells Palestinians’ Abbas Gaza Situation `Unsustainable,’ Offers Aid

June 9, 2010

By Kate Andersen Brower June 9 (Bloomberg) — President Barack Obama called the situation in the Gaza Strip “unsustainable” after he and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas met in an effort to restore momentum to the peace process. Obama announced the U.S. will provide $400 million in aid for housing, school construction and other infrastructure improvements in Gaza and the West Bank to help improve the “day to day lives of ordinary Palestinians.” “The situation in Gaza is unsustainable,” Obama said after today’s Oval Office meeting. “Increasingly you’re seeing debates within Israel recognizing the problems with the status quo.” Israel’s security needs must be met as well as the humanitarian needs of the people in Gaza, Obama said as he called for a new “conceptual framework” for Israel’s blockade of ships bringing supplies to Gaza to focus on stopping the flow of arms into Gaza. Obama said he will be talking to leaders in Europe, Egypt, Israel and the Palestinian Authority, about ways to achieve that. Abbas, speaking through a translator, thanked the U.S. president for the aid pledge, calling it “a positive signal” that the “United States cares about the suffering of the people in Gaza and about the suffering of the Palestinian people.” Raid on Flotilla A May 31 Israeli raid on a ship in an aid flotilla that resulted in the deaths of nine pro-Palestinian activists has drawn international criticism. Israel says the blockade is aimed at preventing Hamas, whose charter calls for the destruction of the Jewish state, from getting weapons smuggled in with aid shipments. Obama said he and Abbas agree that “Israelis have the right to prevent arms from entering into Gaza that can be used to launch attacks into Israeli territory.” However, he said, “the key here is making sure that Israel’s security needs are met but that the needs of the people in Gaza are also met.” Obama affirmed Israel’s right to “not have missiles flying out of Gaza into its territories.” He said there should be a way “to stop the flow of arms that could endanger Israel’s security” while at the same time allowing “people in Gaza to live out their aspirations and their dreams.” Investigation Obama said he stands by a June 1 UN Security Council resolution condemning the violence and calling for a “credible, transparent investigation” into the raid. He said he has told the Israelis that it is in their interests to “make sure that everybody knows exactly how this happened so that we don’t see these kinds of events occurring again.” Still, Obama said if both sides recognize what’s at stake there could be “significant progress” in the peace process before the end of the year. “There’s a lot of work that remains to be done so that we can create a two-state solution in the Middle East,” he said, including more progress on security and incitement in Palestine. “In the long run the only real way to solve this problem is to make sure that we’ve got a Palestinian state side by side with an Israel that is secure.” Abbas said that he appreciated Obama’s “attention and determination” in moving the peace process forward and he said “time is of the essence” to bring peace and security to the region. Abbas said there is a need to “open all the crossings” and “let building material and humanitarian material and all the necessities” into Palestinian territories. The Palestinian president said he wants “an independent Palestinian state that will live side by side with Israel in peace and stability.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ’s planned meeting with Obama at the White House was canceled last week because of the raid. To contact the reporters on this story: Kate Andersen Brower in Washington at Kandersen7@bloomberg.net

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Women Prefer Men Holding Government Bonds, Japan Finance Ministry Ad Says

June 9, 2010

By Wes Goodman and Theresa Barraclough June 9 (Bloomberg) — Japanese women are seeking men who invest in government bonds, according to an advertisement being run by the Ministry of Finance. “I want my future husband to be diligent about money,” a 27-year-old woman says in an ad being run in free magazines promoting a fixed-rate, three-year note that Japan started selling last week. “Playboys are no good.” She’s one of five women featured in the page, which says “Men who hold JGBs are popular with women!!” The ministry commissioned the ads to appeal to citizens for money at a time when record government borrowing threatens to outstrip demand. Prime Minister Naoto Kan , who took office yesterday, said he doesn’t have an instant fix to rein in the world’s largest public debt. The government’s plan to attract marrying-age men comes after a campaign aimed at retirees started last August. That push featured Junko Kubo, a former anchor on Japan’s public broadcaster NHK , in ads placed in the backs of taxi cabs. Kubo followed Koyuki, an actress and model who in 2003 appeared in “The Last Samurai” with Tom Cruise as well as posters for government bonds. “It strikes of desperation,” Christian Carrillo , a senior interest-rate strategist in Tokyo at Societe Generale SA said about the ad campaign. “I doubt this will be a successful strategy to attract retail investors.” Individuals can buy government debt at local banks for 10,000 yen ($109) according to the ads. The finance ministry in 2002 hired Koushiro Matsumoto, an actor in Kabuki theater, and model Norika Fujiwara in its bond campaigns. Japan’s government debt amounted to a record 882.9 trillion yen as of March 31, according to the Ministry of Finance. A 600 billion yen sale of 30-year bonds yesterday attracted bids for 2.25 times the amount on offer, the least since April 2004. Biggest Market Japan has the world’s largest bond market, followed by the U.S., based on a ranking of 35 nations by the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, using data through September 2009. Kan, the former finance minister, takes office facing a debt burden that has increased by almost 80 percent in a decade and it is equivalent to 180 percent of the nation’s annual economic output. “I don’t think fiscal rehabilitation can be done overnight,” he told reporters last week. Moody’s Investors Service rates Japan’s debt at Aa2, the third-highest investment grade, with a stable outlook. Standard & Poor’s cut the outlook on Japan’s AA grade in January, citing diminishing “flexibility” to cope with the nation’s swelling debt load. Former Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama ’s decision to quit last week “has no credit implications, but that in itself is positive news, given reports that Japan’s ship of state is rudderless,” Thomas Byrne , senior vice president of Moody’s, wrote in a statement released June 7. Declining Holdings “The world is full of dirty shirts in terms of excessive debt,” Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., said in an interview June 4. Japanese households have started to cut their holdings of the nation’s debt. Their ownership of government securities declined to 35 trillion yen as of Dec. 31 from a record 36.7 trillion yen a year earlier, according to the Bank of Japan. Masaaki Kaizuka , director of debt management at the Ministry of Finance, aims to change that. The ministry started selling three-year bonds tailored for individuals on June 3, after conducting a market survey that showed pent-up demand for shorter-term securities, Kaizuka said. ‘Untouched Group’ “What we can do is try to attract an untouched group of people to find a different sort of investor,” Kaizuka said. Shorter bonds are seen as safer because they mature faster. This campaign for JGBs was crafted by Dentsu Inc., Japan’s largest advertising company, which the ministry chose through an annual bidding process, Kaizuka said. “Retail government bonds, which provide the peace of mind that women want, are now available in three-year maturities with a fixed rate,” the ad says. The bonds are called “Kotei3,” meaning “Fixed3” because they mature in three years. Japanese government securities maturing in 2013 yield 0.176 percent as of 3:26 p.m. in Tokyo, versus 1.20 percent for same- maturity debt in the U.S. The yield turns to about 1.38 percent in Japan after accounting for falling prices in the economy. The so-called real yield in the U.S. is negative 1 percent. Japan’s bonds handed investors a 1.32 percent gain this year, versus 3.96 percent for sovereign debt globally, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes. To contact the reporter on this story: Wes Goodman in Singapore at wgoodman@bloomberg.net ; Theresa Barraclough in Tokyo at tbarraclough@bloomberg.net .

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U.S. Urges Gaza Aid Ship to Change Course, Avoid Confrontation With Israel

June 4, 2010

By Calev Ben-David and Gwen Ackerman June 5 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. urged an aid ship heading for Gaza to avoid confrontation with Israel by going to the port of Ashdod, hours after organizers of the effort said they will make another attempt to break a blockade on the territory. The Irish-owned MV Rachel Corrie and other vessels should sail to the southwest Israeli city to deliver goods to Gaza, “in the interest of the safety of all involved,” National Security Council spokesman Mike Hammer said in a statement released by the White House. Israel is weighing easing the restrictions on Gaza after nine activists died during a military raid on a similar vessel to the Rachel Corrie this week. Hammer said it is a “U.S. priority” to help the Gaza people. “The current arrangements are unsustainable and must be changed,” he said. “We are working urgently with Israel, the Palestinian Authority, and other international partners to develop new procedures for delivering more goods and assistance to Gaza.” The ship Rachel Corrie , named after an U.S. activist killed in Gaza in 2003, is expected to be 20 miles (32 kilometers) off the Palestinian enclave at about 10 a.m. local time today, Dennis Halliday , an Irish activist on the vessel who is a former United Nations humanitarian coordinator in Iraq, told Ireland’s RTE radio. The vessel’s voyage was organized by the Free Gaza Movement , which also arranged the flotilla halted by Israeli commandos in international waters on May 31. ‘Stop It’ “We’ll have to stop it,” said Michael Oren , the Israeli ambassador to the U.S., in an interview with Bloomberg Television’s “Political Capital with Al Hunt ,” airing this weekend. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will consider easing the blockade and changing methods of monitoring goods allowed in, including stationing United Nations inspectors at Israel’s Ashdod port to help with sorting, Israeli Army Radio reported, without saying where it got the information. The U.S., which has declined to join in the international condemnation of Israel over the raid, is seeking ways to widen the flow of aid to Gaza, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said. “We’re open to any suggestions,” Oren said about easing the blockade. “We agree with Secretary Clinton that the status quo is not sustainable.” Top Israeli ministers have met to review the embargo on deliveries of goods to Hamas-controlled Gaza by sea, and explore ways of modifying it, an Israeli official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because he wasn’t authorized to speak to the press on the matter. He gave no other details of the meeting. ‘No Weapons’ Israel won’t board the ship provided it agrees to sail to the port of Ashdod instead of Gaza and unload the cargo there, Foreign Ministry Director General Yossi Gal said in a statement yesterday. The goods would then be taken to Gaza after checks to ensure “no weapons and war materials” are among them, and representatives of the aid groups are “welcome to accompany the goods to the crossings,” he said. Israel says it attempted to prevent clashes with the aid flotilla earlier this week by issuing numerous warnings beforehand to change course for Ashdod and unload there. Free Gaza said in an e-mail that the Rachel Corrie has no “intention of ever docking in Ashdod.” The ship will move toward the exclusion zone in daylight, Halliday told RTE. “At that point we may meet Israeli forces who will prevent us entering that zone,” he said. “It’s more likely, however, they will jump on us in the dark. “We are prepared for the worst but hopeful that maybe an exception will happen, that Israel will get some good sense and give us a chance to take this cargo and get into Gaza.” No Resistance Mairead Corrigan Maguire , an Irish Nobel Peace Prize laureate who is also on the ship, told the Associated Press that she and the other activists won’t offer any resistance if Israeli forces come aboard. Netanyahu met yesterday with U.S. Middle East envoy George Mitchell in Jerusalem, U.S. Embassy spokesman Kurt Hoyer said, without providing further details of their discussion. Mitchell, who is trying to keep alive U.S.-mediated indirect peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians, said this week during a visit to Bethlehem that the flotilla violence “underscores the need to make progress in the negotiations,” according to Arlissa Reynolds, a spokeswoman for the U.S. Consulate in Jerusalem. The U.S. confirmed this week that an American citizen, identified as 19-year-old Furkan Dogan, was killed by multiple gunshots during the Israeli raid. He was also a Turkish citizen, as were the other eight people killed. ‘Nothing to Fear’ Three Israeli Cabinet ministers have called for a probe into the raid. Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said Israel should conduct its own investigation and allow limited outside participation. Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz called for a parliamentary investigation. “We have nothing to fear,” Industry and Trade Minister Binyamin Ben -Eliezer said in an e-mailed statement. “Everything is in the open, transparent. The video footage, the photographs can be shown to anyone who asks.” Israel has said its soldiers were attacked with knives and clubs after boarding the Mavi Marmara, one of the six vessels in the flotilla, and seven were wounded, including by gunfire after volunteers aboard the ship managed to grab Israeli firearms. Activists have said they threw the firearms into the sea. There was no violence on the other five ships. Criticism within Israel on the flotilla operation has focused largely on the execution of the raid and not the blockade. A survey of Israeli Jews published in the Maariv daily on June 2 showed 94.8 percent agreeing that it was necessary to stop the boats, with 62.7 percent saying it should have been handled in a different manner. Only 8.1 percent thought Netanyahu should resign. The newspaper didn’t say how many people were surveyed or give a margin of error. UN Condemnation The UN Security Council on June 1 condemned the violence that led to the deaths of the aid activists, and called for an impartial inquiry. Turkey, which along with South Africa withdrew its ambassador from Israel over the incident, says an Israeli investigation wouldn’t meet that criteria. Israel has been blockading Gaza since Hamas ousted forces loyal to Abbas’s Fatah group and seized control in 2007, after winning Palestinian parliamentary elections the previous year. Hamas is considered a terrorist organization by Israel, the U.S. and the European Union. Israel launched an operation in the Gaza Strip in December 2008 which it said was meant to stop the firing of rockets into its territory. More than 1,000 Palestinians and 13 Israelis were killed in the conflict. Since the end of the three-week operation, some 330 rockets have been fired from Gaza into Israel, killing one foreign worker last March, the Israeli army said. Palestinians, backed by the UN and human-rights groups, say the restrictions on food imports and construction materials have created a humanitarian crisis. Israel says it blocks building materials because they can be used by Hamas to build rockets and bunkers. To contact the reporters on this story: Gwen Ackerman in Jerusalem at gackerman@bloomberg.net ; Calev Ben-David in Jerusalem at Cbendavid@bloomberg.net .

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Clinton Says North Korea Role in Sinking Demands World Response

May 21, 2010

By Nicole Gaouette and Takashi Hirokawa May 22 (Bloomberg) — U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urged international action to answer North Korea’s suspected sinking of a South Korean warship, just before she arrived in China for talks set to deal with the crisis. The U.S. wants China to help shape a response to North Korea, an American official told reporters yesterday in Shanghai. China is an ally of North Korea and has hosted now stalled international talks on reining in the regime’s nuclear arms effort. The U.S. official, who asked not to be identified, said South Korea doesn’t want war to break out over the crisis. The evidence that North Korea fired a torpedo and sank the ship is “overwhelming and condemning,” Clinton said at a press briefing in Tokyo with Japanese Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada during a short stop before she flew on to China. The March 26 sinking of the 1,200-ton Cheonan killed 46 South Korean sailors. South Korea’s options for a response include seeking action by the United Nations Security Council, shutting down humanitarian aid work and the Kaesong industrial park in North Korea, and joint military exercises with the U.S., according to John Park, director of the Korea Working Group at the U.S. Institute of Peace in Washington. “The U.S. is in a tough position” at the UN, Park said in an interview. “With talks on Iran sanctions going on, they will be asked by countries like China what their priority is.” China joined the U.S., U.K., France and Russia this week to back a draft UN Security Council resolution on Iran that would bolster an arms embargo, restrict financial transactions and enhance authority to stop and seize Iranian cargo suspected of ties to nuclear or missile work. War Threat Kim Jong Il ’s regime in North Korea, already under UN sanctions for its second nuclear-weapons test last year, threatened “all-out war” if the international body imposes additional restrictions. In Tokyo, Clinton and Okada offered unqualified support for South Korea after an international panel issued a report saying evidence provided “conclusive” proof of North Korea’s role in the ship incident. “The importance of the Japan-U.S. alliance is increasing as the sinking of the South Korean ship shows the instability” in the region, Okada said. Another U.S. official told reporters in Shanghai that the sinking shifted Japan’s attitude in a dispute over moving an American base on Okinawa and that Japan would make a contribution on a deal. The official also asked not to be identified. Futenma Issue Clinton and Okada discussed the dispute over where to relocate the American military facility. Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama , who initially called for moving the Futenma Marine Base off the island in response to local sentiment, said earlier this month he will transfer the base within Okinawa, largely in line with a 2006 bilateral agreement. Clinton said both countries share the same goals on moving the base and are seeking an “operationally viable and politically sustainable” solution. Both sides would try to conclude the matter by the end of the month, Okada said. Tension on the Korean peninsula is overshadowing the planned centerpiece of Clinton’s Asia trip. She and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will be in Beijing May 23-25 to take part in the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue. Climate, Energy While Geithner will press the Chinese to improve domestic demand and address the value of the yuan, Clinton’s agenda includes climate change, energy security and Iran. She then will go to Seoul to discuss the South Korean report. The talks in China come as both countries are trying to improve ties after strains earlier this year. Chinese censorship of Google Inc. , the Mountain View, California-based Internet- search company, a Washington visit by the Dalai Lama and disagreements over China’s currency weighed on relations. In Shanghai, Clinton will visit the U.S. pavilion at the 2010 World Expo . More than 4 million people already have visited the $44 billion, six-month exposition that opened May 1, including French President Nicolas Sarkozy . To contact the reporters on this story: Nicole Gaouette in Shanghai at ngaouette@bloomberg.net ; Takashi Hirokawa in Tokyo at thirokawa@bloomberg.net

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ElBaradei’s Campaign to End Mubarak’s Rule Spurned by Egyptian Opposition

May 18, 2010

By Daniel Williams May 18 (Bloomberg) — Hundreds of flag-waving Egyptians greeted Mohamed ElBaradei at Cairo’s airport on Feb. 19. The former head of the United Nations atomic-energy agency was coming home to lead a movement to oust President Hosni Mubarak , and opposition leaders rallied in support. Three months later, some activists have abandoned the 2005 Nobel Peace Prize laureate, calling him aloof, absent and out of touch. And his campaign has failed so far to pressure Mubarak into adopting new regulations allowing independent candidates, including ElBaradei, to run in next year’s election. ElBaradei’s endeavor is “a fiasco,” said Hisham Kassem , a former newspaper publisher and member of Kifaya, a group of anti-Mubarak activists. “Everyone has his own agenda.” If ElBaradei fails, it would be the latest in a series of unsuccessful efforts to end 28 years of one-man rule and return Egypt to democracy for the first time since 1952, when the military overthrew a constitutional monarchy. While Mubarak supporters say his strong hand maintains stability, critics say the price has been corruption, oligarchy and persistent labor unrest in a country operating since 1981 under a state of emergency that permits arbitrary arrest, detention without trial and suppression of political associations and demonstrations. The critics also say stability is illusory. Forty-two percent of Egyptians live in poverty, and there has been an upsurge in illegal protests, with more than 1.7 million workers participating in some 1,900 strikes and other actions between 2004 and 2008, according to the Washington-based Solidarity Center , a labor-rights group. Nuclear Proliferation ElBaradei, 67, returned to Egypt after a long career abroad. He served as director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna for 12 years, sharing the Nobel prize with the agency for work to prevent nuclear proliferation for military use. A former diplomat, he’s never held elected office. “Egyptians are looking for a savior to pull them out of their misery,” Kassem said. ElBaradei formed the National Association for Change, an umbrella group designed to pressure Mubarak, in February. He has called for term limits on the presidency and said Egyptians should boycott next year’s elections if Mubarak doesn’t change the constitution. Under current rules, presidential candidates must be members of established parties, including Mubarak’s National Democratic Party , or be endorsed by parliament and municipal councils, all dominated by the NDP. Grooming a Successor Mubarak, 82 and ailing, hasn’t said if he’ll seek another six-year term. Opposition groups say he is grooming his son Gamal , 47, to succeed him, a claim both men deny. After initial expressions of support, groups that might help channel public enthusiasm for ElBaradei into a mass movement now display little interest in joining him. The Muslim Brotherhood , Egypt’s largest opposition faction, which is legally banned from politics, isn’t willing to back ElBaradei even though it agrees with his call for open elections, spokesman Ali Abdul-Fattah said. “He doesn’t speak the language of the people, and he wants to manage things as an outsider instead of getting down to the struggle,” Abdul-Fattah said. “In any case, there is no possibility for change.” Lawyer Ayman Nour , who ran for president in 2005 as head of the Tomorrow Party and got 7 percent of the vote, joined ElBaradei’s group initially and then split off. ElBaradei “just showed up in February,” Nour said, adding he plans to run again in 2011. “The movement can’t be based on one personality. For instance, our party has a history. He is just an individual.” Reject Leadership Officially recognized parties, which have little following in Egypt, reject ElBaradei’s leadership. The socialist Tagammu Party, which was founded in 1977 and has one seat in parliament, forbade its members from joining ElBaradei’s association. “We worked for years and now we are expected to back this phenomenon? No,” said Hussein Abdul Razek, a top official. The April 6 Youth Movement, a collection of young people who lobby for democracy on the Internet , rallied around ElBaradei at first and now has become frustrated by his performance, said its leader Ahmed Maher. “Time is passing, everyone’s ambitions are clashing and ElBaradei is just talking,” he said. “It’s a huge disappointment, but we still have hope.” An ElBaradei representative, Hassan Nafaa, a Cairo University professor who coordinates the NAC, acknowledged ElBaradei must do more to mobilize support. ‘Complicated’ Politics “Egyptian politics are complicated,” he said during a May 3 rally protesting Mubarak’s plan to add two more years to the state of emergency. “It’s hard to keep people together.” The demonstration drew about 100 participants, who mainly spent their time debating whether to break through police lines and march on parliament or give television interviews. ElBaradei was absent, traveling in the U.S. “We have to do better organizing; activity must go on even in ElBaradei’s absence,” Nafaa said, adding ElBaradei would soon promote civil disobedience. A second protest, hastily convened on May 12 when Mubarak extended the emergency law, also drew about 100 demonstrators, many repeaters from May 3. ElBaradei, still abroad, Twittered that the extension was a “continuation of repression” and a “violation” of human rights. He should spend more time in Egypt and lead demonstrations, said the youth movement’s Maher. “We can’t have an opposition in the transit lounge,” he said. To contact the reporter on this story: Daniel Williams in Cairo at dwilliams41@bloomberg.net .

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Thailand Clashes Subside With Protesters, Authorities Seeking Negotiations

May 18, 2010

By Daniel Ten Kate and Supunnabul Suwannakij May 18 (Bloomberg) — Thai political violence that has killed 38 people in gun battles over the past week subsided today as authorities and protesters sought talks. “There should be good news” as negotiations take place, police spokesman Prawut Thavornsiri said by phone. “Tensions may ease or protests will probably end.” Protest leader Nattawut Saikuar said today his group is willing to accept an offer by the Senate to mediate a solution. The government wants to avoid further loss of life and may reopen talks on an early election, chief negotiator Korbsak Sabhavasu said in an interview. Willingness to compromise on both sides may hasten an end to a two-month standoff over a new election that has led to Thailand’s worst political violence in 18 years. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is seeking to contain violence, which threatens to undermine growth in the $260 billion economy. Thailand’s benchmark SET Index rose 0.9 percent at 3:44 p.m. local time after falling 2 percent yesterday. The baht climbed 0.4 percent from a seven-week low. “We don’t want innocent people to get killed,” Korbsak said. “We are working hard for a political solution.” Abhisit withdrew an offer to hold a Nov. 14 election when protesters failed to disperse by a May 12 deadline. A fresh poll may be put back on the table if protesters stop confronting troops setting up checkpoints, Korbsak said. ‘Willing to Renegotiate’ “We are willing to renegotiate the election,” Korbsak, a former deputy prime minister, said today. “We are not holding onto power, we want to do the best for the country.” The demonstrators, who say Abhisit’s rule has no legitimacy, have struggled to contain armed members battling soldiers around the main site, making cease-fire talks difficult, Chaturon Chaisang , a former Cabinet member aligned with the protesters, said by phone yesterday. “It could go either way” between a peaceful settlement and forced dispersal, he said. “Time is running out.” Korbsak blamed ex-leader Thaksin Shinawatra for the failure to negotiate a settlement over the past two weeks, a charge he denies. Protest leader Nattawut had initially agreed to call fighters back to the main base, only to renege on the agreement, Korbsak said. ‘Stop Firing’ “We want the government to stop firing now,” so we can hold talks, Nattawut said today from the main stage at the central Bangkok protest site. “No prime minister will ever win by killing people.” Nattawut, a former government spokesman in two pro-Thaksin administrations, said troops are preventing supporters from rejoining the main group, making it harder for Red Shirt leaders to keep the peace. Army spokesman Sansern Kaewkamnerd said Nattawut is a “major terrorist” for saying he could control fighters on the outskirts of the city. The military “won’t back off,” he said. The United Nations called on both sides to find a peaceful solution to the situation and prevent further casualties. “I urged leaders to set aside pride and politics for the sake of the people of Thailand,” UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay said in a statement late yesterday. “I appeal to the protesters to step back from the brink, and the security forces to exercise maximum restraint.” Deadline Extended The government yesterday extended its deadline for thousands of mostly poor, rural protesters to leave their fortified camp after many stayed. About 5,000 people, including many women, remained at the main site, police spokesman Prawut said today. The number of people wounded in clashes during the past four days climbed to 256, according to a statement on the website of Bangkok’s Emergency Medical Service. The two-month street campaign for a new election has claimed 67 lives in total. Pro-Thaksin parties have won the past four elections on a platform of improved health care and cheap loans. Abhisit took power in a December 2008 parliamentary vote after a court disbanded the ruling party for election fraud. His Democrat party hasn’t won the most seats in a nationwide vote since 1992. “The crisis in Thailand is not an issue that will be resolved in the short term,” said Ernest Bower , an analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “Thais are redefining themselves and their country, and the journey has started out to be a bloody one.” To contact the reporter on this story: Daniel Ten Kate in Bangkok at dtenkate@bloomberg.net

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Thai Government Renews Election Offer to End Days of Clashes in Bangkok

May 18, 2010

By Daniel Ten Kate and Supunnabul Suwannakij May 18 (Bloomberg) — Thailand’s government said it is willing to reopen talks on holding an early election to help avoid bloodshed after six days of gun battles in Bangkok that have killed at least 36 people. “We are willing to renegotiate the election,” Korbsak Sabhavasu, the government’s chief negotiator and a former deputy prime minister said in a phone interview today. “We are not holding onto power, we want to do the best for the country.” Thai protest leader Nattawut Saikuar said today his group is willing to accept an offer by the Senate to mediate. Korbsak, who spoke yesterday to Nattawut, indicated the government is anxious to avoid further loss of life. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is also bidding to keep the Red Shirt protest movement from expanding beyond Bangkok to rural areas where his administration has less control. Failure to contain the deadliest political clashes in two decades has exposed a widening social rift that threatens to undermine growth in the $260 billion economy. “We don’t want innocent people to get killed,” Korbsak said. “We are working hard for a political solution.” Abhisit withdrew an offer to hold a Nov. 14 election when protesters failed to disperse by a May 12 deadline. The group, which says his rule has no legitimacy, attached new conditions to his offer, including criminal charges against his deputy. ‘Stop Firing Now’ “We want the government to stop firing now,” so we can hold talks, Nattawut said today from the main stage at the central Bangkok protest site. “No prime minister will ever win by killing people.” “Time is running out,” Chaturon Chaisang , a former Cabinet member aligned with the protesters, said by phone yesterday. “It could go either way” between a peaceful settlement and forced dispersal, he said. Thailand’s benchmark SET Index, which fell 2 percent yesterday, was trading 0.3 percent lower at 11:37 a.m. local time. The baht climbed from a seven-week low. Korbsak said Nattawut had initially agreed to call fighters back to the main base, only to renege on the agreement. Nattawut said troops are preventing supporters from rejoining the main group, making it harder for Red Shirt leaders to keep the peace. Struggle to Contain Protest leaders yesterday struggled to contain armed elements battling soldiers around the main site, making cease- fire talks difficult, Chaturon said. The United Nations called on both sides to find a peaceful solution to the situation and prevent further casualties. “I urged leaders to set aside pride and politics for the sake of the people of Thailand,” UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay said in a statement late yesterday. “I appeal to the protesters to step back from the brink, and the security forces to exercise maximum restraint.” The government yesterday extended its deadline for thousands of mostly poor, rural protesters to leave their fortified camp after many stayed. About 3,000 people, including many women, remained at the main site, army spokesman Sansern Kaewkamnerd told reporters. Two-Month Campaign The number of people wounded in clashes during the past four days climbed to 256, according to a statement on the website of Bangkok’s Emergency Medical Service. The two-month street campaign for a new election has claimed 65 lives in total. Pro-Thaksin parties have won the past four elections on a platform of improved health care and cheap loans. Abhisit took power in a December 2008 parliamentary vote after a court disbanded the ruling party for election fraud. His Democrat party hasn’t won the most seats in a nationwide vote since 1992. “The crisis in Thailand is not an issue that will be resolved in the short term,” said Ernest Bower , an analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “Thais are redefining themselves and their country, and the journey has started out to be a bloody one.” To contact the reporter on this story: Daniel Ten Kate in Bangkok at dtenkate@bloomberg.net

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Erdogan Visit May Smooth Path for Greek Defense Cutbacks to Reduce Deficit

May 14, 2010

By Patrick Donahue and Ben Holland May 14 (Bloomberg) — Fear of Turkey’s army led Greece to become the European Union’s biggest military spender as a share of the economy in the past decade. Now, détente between the neighbors offers Prime Minister George Papandreou a route to squeeze extra savings from his country’s army. Papandreou hosts Turkish premier Recep Tayyip Erdogan , who may also want to cut military spending, in Athens today. Matching cuts from strategic rival Turkey would help Greece make the reduction in military expenditures it pledged in return for $139 billion of International Monetary Fund and European Union loans to stave off a debt default . Greece has spent 50 billion euros ($63 billion) on the military in the past decade, with the budget rising each year since 2003 as the army added fighter jets, submarines and tanks. They are mostly for defense against Turkey: the two NATO members came close to war over territorial rights in the Aegean in 1996, and though ties have improved their pilots regularly engage in mock dogfights above its waters. A Greek pilot was killed in 2006 after colliding with a Turkish plane. Turkey and Greece “are allies not competitors” and “we might together decide to reduce the defense allocation of our respective budgets,” said Egemen Bagis , Turkey’s minister for EU membership negotiations, in an interview in Istanbul late yesterday before departing for Athens. He declined to say whether the two premiers will agree on such cuts today. Erdogan told Greece’s state-run NET television last night that both countries have “very high defense spending.” Unarmed Flights “We can reduce this spending and divert this money away from the weapons industry to other areas,” he said. As an initial step toward disarmament, Erdogan proposed that fighter planes from both countries flying over the Aegean should take off unarmed. Papandreou has to slash the budget deficit to 3 percent of gross domestic product by 2014, from last year’s 13.6 percent to meet its commitments to the IMF and EU. Concern that he won’t be able to meet that target sent yields on 10-year Greek debt to 12.4 percent last week, before European central banks started buying the bonds of indebted EU nations after agreeing to a $1 trillion bailout. Yields rose 28 basis points to 7.64 percent at 12:55 p.m. in Athens today. “It’s inevitable to try to find a way with Turkey to limit defense equipment expenditures on both sides of the Aegean,” said Yannos Papantoniou , Greece’s finance minister from 1994 till 2001 and defense minister for the next two years. One way is for Erdogan and Papandreou to build “a better political understanding,” he said. Education, Not Arms Erdogan met Greek President Karolos Papoulias after arriving in Athens today. He’s accompanied on the trip by 10 Cabinet ministers who’ll attend a joint meeting with their Greek counterparts later today. Greek military spending was 3.6 percent of gross domestic product in 2008, the EU’s highest, and the country with a population of 11 million was the world’s fifth-biggest weapons importer between 2005 and 2009, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Beneficiaries of the spending include Duesseldorf-based steelmaker and shipbuilder ThyssenKrupp AG, which is supplying submarines for the Greek navy under a contract worth more than 2.5 billion euros ($3.2 billion). Greece fell behind on payments to the company last year. Turkey’s population is 72 million and its 600,000-strong army is the second-biggest in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization after the U.S. Turkey’s Finance Ministry says defense spending will be about $10 billion this year, or 1.5 percent of GDP. SIPRI, whose estimates are typically higher than government figures, says it was 2.1 percent of GDP in 2007. No Peace Dividend “The conflict with Turkey has been overwhelmingly the thing that’s been keeping Greek military spending as a share of GDP and the arms purchases high” since the Cold War ended, said Sam Perlo-Freeman , head of SPIRI’s military expenditure project. “In the rest of Europe it’s been for the most part completely flat or declining over the last 10 years.” Papandreou has announced defense savings of about 500 million euros this year. The cuts were visible on March 25, Greece’s independence day, when celebrations lacked the usual tank parades and air displays. For Erdogan, cutting military spending may help curb the political influence of Turkey’s army, which has ousted four governments since 1960. Throughout a seven-year premiership Erdogan has clashed with generals who view his Islamist-rooted party as a threat to Turkey’s secular system. Coup Plot Trial Dozens of military officers are facing trial on charges of plotting to oust Erdogan. Prosecutors say the plan involved attacks on non-Muslim minorities and provoking Greece into shooting down a Turkish plane, to destabilize Erdogan’s government. “If they can strike some kind of deal with the Greeks, it would help Erdogan increase leverage over the military,” said Wolfango Piccoli , an analyst at the New York-based Eurasia Group, which measures political risk. It will take time because “with military spending the cutting needs to be gradual, it can’t be done overnight.” Turkey keeps about 30,000 troops on Cyprus since a 1974 invasion to reverse a coup by supporters of union with Greece. In 1996 Turkey and Greece exchanged threats over ownership of uninhabited rocks in the Aegean. Other disputes include definitions of airspace and territorial waters. “There is more or less a consensus in this country that there is a challenge, a threat from Turkey,” making some areas of the military budget hard to cut, said Thanos Dokos , the director of the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy in Athens. Still, “the Greek armed forces were in need of an overhaul in spite of the crisis,” Dokos said. “The crisis will be an opportunity to trim them down.” To contact the reporters on this story: Patrick Donahue in Berlin at pdonahue1@bloomberg.net ; Ben Holland in Istanbul at bholland1@bloomberg.net .

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Netanyahu Says He Will Know in Days If Talks With Palestinians to Proceed

April 25, 2010

By Gwen Ackerman April 25 (Bloomberg) — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said today he will know soon if the peace process will move forward, after he met with U.S. Middle East envoy George Mitchell . Mitchell had “positive and productive talks” with Israeli and Palestinian leaders in his three-day visit, an e-mailed statement from the U.S. Embassy said. The visit was the latest attempt to get Israel and the Palestinians to agree to U.S.- mediated indirect talks. “Israel wants the peace process to start immediately,” Netanyahu said today in comments broadcast on Army Radio. “The U.S. wants the process to start immediately, and I can only hope the Palestinians want to start the process immediately.” The Israeli leader said he will know “in the next few days” if negotiations will resume. Talks between Israel and the Palestinians stalled in December 2008 at the start of an Israeli military operation in the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip that Israel said was aimed at stopping rocket attacks on its southern towns and cities. U.S. efforts to get the sides to resume negotiations have been stymied by Israeli plans to build 1,600 new homes for Jews in a part of Jerusalem captured from Jordan in the 1967 Middle East War and which the Palestinians seek as the capital of a future state. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has demanded the building plans be frozen before indirect talks can begin. Netanyahu has said Israel will continue to build in Jerusalem. Mitchell, who also met with Abbas, plans to return to the region next week, the embassy statement said. To contact the reporter on this story: Gwen Ackerman in Jerusalem at gackerman@bloomberg.net

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Petraeus Says U.S. Is Stepping Up Commando Raids on Afghan Taliban Leaders

April 15, 2010

By Tony Capaccio and Lizzie O’Leary April 15 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. military has “substantially increased” its specialized counter-terrorism teams in Afghanistan designed to kill Taliban leaders, General David Petraeus , the head of U.S. Central Command, said today. The “operational tempo” in Afghanistan of so-called special mission units “is going to increase in the months ahead,” Petraeus said in an interview in Washington. Alongside that military effort, the U.S. is working with President Hamid Karzai on his plan for a loya jirga, or tribal assembly, next month to discuss possible reconciliation with some Taliban loyalists, the commander said. The U.S. has “increased our special mission unit effort there, which substantially increased the numbers of our ‘special’ special operations forces, our counter-terrorist forces,” he said. The increased missions are part of a strategy intended to deny Taliban leaders unlikely to give up the fight any sanctuary in Afghanistan. The U.S., NATO and Afghan allies are seeking to secure population centers and train the country’s police and soldiers to take control starting in July 2011. U.S. special forces “have been going after the Taliban leaders and the leaders of the other extremist elements that cause problems for our troopers and Afghanistan partners at a higher operational tempo in recent months,” Petraeus said. “I don’t think you should ever assume that there is a location in Afghanistan that is beyond the reach of our forces,” Petraeus said. ‘Fusion Cells’ The U.S. has set up “intelligence fusion cells” in Afghanistan similar to those established during the 2007 surge of forces in Iraq. The cells integrated commando and conventional forces with intelligence agencies to carry out quick attacks on suspected terrorists, Petraeus said. These cells “help everyone — not just to help special mission units, that was to help all forces,” he said. The U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal , directed the Iraq efforts and has consolidated all special operations — including special mission units — under his authority. U.S. intelligence agencies and elite special-forces units in Iraq worked in “fusion cells” that consolidated and analyzed real-time information from informants, satellites and eavesdropping on top al-Qaeda operatives. The strategy enabled quick, focused strikes. ‘Decapitation’ Strikes McChrystal, in a Dec. 10 interview, said the most effective approach to attacking al-Qaeda is not to strike solely at the leaders – “decapitation” strikes such as the U.S. endorsed after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. “What I have come to believe is you take the middle of the network — experienced professionals,” he said on PBS Television’s Charlie Rose show. The U.S. also is working more with Karzai on his plan to move toward a peace agreement with the Taliban. Petraeus said Afghan leaders persuaded him and other U.S. officials including special envoy Richard Holbrooke during a meeting in Kabul earlier this week that they had a plan for reaching a “national consensus” on terms for reconciliation. The process would include interests such as those of women in Afghanistan, the commander said. National Consensus “A light came on for a number of us about the importance of the peace jirga and the importance of national consensus,” Petraeus said. “There’s a very sophisticated analysis on the Afghan side.” Actual reconciliation, or bringing members of the Taliban into the government, isn’t likely until after they see the prospect of defeat, Petraeus said, referring to a position often expressed by Defense Secretary Robert Gates . “That’s not to say there shouldn’t be an effort to achieve national consensus on reconciliation, should the opportunity present itself,” Petraeus said. In the meantime, the country’s leaders need to agree on “what are the red lines for the different communities within Afghanistan,” he said. To contact the reporters on this story: Tony Capaccio in Washington at acapaccio@bloomberg.net ; Lizzie O’Leary in Washington at loleary2@bloomberg.net

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Gartmore Shows U.K. Financial Firms More Cautious as FSA Pursues Traders

April 1, 2010

By Tom Cahill and Sarah Jones (Corrects age in 14th paragraph.) April 1 (Bloomberg) — Gartmore Group Ltd. ’s suspension this week of hedge-fund manager Guillaume Rambourg underscores heightened caution among U.K. companies as the Financial Services Authority cracks down on illegal trading. “A number of people said this sounds like this is a little bit too far, too much of a wrap on the knuckles,” Jeffrey Meyer , chief executive officer of London-based Gartmore, said in a telephone interview yesterday. “But we were in consultation with the FSA. We got their views on the situation.” Rambourg, a 15-year veteran of the firm who runs marathons to raise money for charity, may have directed buy and sell orders to favored brokers in violation of internal rules, Meyer said. The firm has a central desk with responsibility for routing trades. Its compliance managers uncovered the breaches late on March 24 and the FSA was alerted the next day. Gartmore announced its decision on March 30, a week after the FSA, the primary financial-services regulator in Britain, arrested employees of Deutsche Bank AG, Exane BNP Paribas and Moore Capital Management LLC in a probe of insider trading. In a separate case, the FSA yesterday charged seven people in connection with an insider-trading ring that prosecutors said made about 2.5 million pounds ($3.8 million) in illegal profits. The Conservative Party has said it wants to phase out the FSA, which Prime Minister Gordon Brown created in 1997 while finance minister. The Conservatives, who are squaring off with Brown’s Labour Party in an election that must be held by June 3, argue the agency was too lax and was partly to blame for the worst market turmoil in a generation. Gartmore’s decision to suspend Rambourg shows that what may have once been considered minor infractions are now being dealt with harshly, said Jon Moulton , founder and chairman of Better Capital Ltd., a London-based investment manager. FSA More Aggressive “There’s bound to be some worried traders out there,” said Moulton, the former managing partner of buyout firm Alchemy Partners LLP. “If you’re engaged in inappropriate behavior then this latest crackdown by the FSA must be pretty scary. The FSA is being much more aggressive than it used to be.” Gartmore’s market value tumbled by almost a third within two hours of the suspension announcement. Rambourg, together with Roger Guy , managed 8.1 billion pounds ($12.3 billion), or more than a third of the firm’s assets. Guy isn’t under investigation, Gartmore said yesterday. “Boards are usually afraid of star fund managers, especially if they’re successful,” said Joe Seet , senior partner at Sigma Partnership, a London hedge-fund advisory firm. “It takes some guts to say the rules are the rules, no matter who you are.” Short Sellers Traders had increased their bets that Gartmore’s stock would fall before the probe was disclosed. The percentage of shares on loan, which usually indicates short-selling interest, reached 23 percent on March 26, seven times the amount a month earlier, according to Data Explorers in London, a consultant on short selling and securities financing. Short sellers profit by borrowing shares on the expectation they will drop in price and be cheaper to buy and replace later. Gartmore yesterday rose 9 pence, or 7.8 percent, to 125 pence in London trading , giving it a market value of 384 million pounds. The company has lost about 43 percent of its value since its initial public offering in December. Rambourg ranks as the firm’s second-largest individual investor with 11.8 million shares, or 3.85 percent of the company, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Guy is the largest individual investor with a 5.6 percent stake. Rambourg, 39, spent more than a decade running some of the U.K.’s best-performing hedge funds. Capella, Tucana Funds He and Guy managed Gartmore’s $2.3 billion Alphagen Capella fund since it started in 1999 and the $828 million Alphagen Tucana Fund since its inception in 2005. Tucana returned 42 percent last year, ranking in the top 20 percent of similar funds, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Capella rose 12 percent in 2009. Two months ago, the pair collected the award for 2009’s best European Equity Fund of more than $500 million from EuroHedge, an industry publication that stages an annual black- tie awards dinner for more than 800 fund managers at Mayfair’s Grosvenor House Hotel. “He’s been in the game for a long time and is one of the industry better respected individuals,” said Morten Spenner, chief executive officer of London-based International Asset Management Ltd., which manages $3 billion in hedge funds. “On the surface the situation doesn’t seem as grave as people have interpreted it to be.” American Accent Born in Ottawa, Rambourg is the son of United Nations diplomat whose upbringing in New York left him with an American accent. He graduated from ESSEC, one of France’s top business schools, in 1993 after majoring in finance, and joined Gartmore in 1995, according to the firm’s Web site. He became an associate member of the U.K. Society of Investment Professionals in 1997. He didn’t respond to e-mails or calls for comment. Rambourg last April completed the London Marathon in three hours and 11 minutes, finishing in the top 5 percent of runners. He raised 35,000 pounds for charities Peace One Day and Get Kids Going, according to an e-mail he sent thanking supporters. “This is a guy that in my five years in dealing with him has acted with a great deal of integrity and respect and always puts the interest of his clients first,” said Meyer. Gartmore hasn’t suffered “material outflows yet,” he said. Analysts said withdrawals may be coming. “I don’t see why anyone would want to put their money into Gartmore funds,” Katrina Hart , an analyst at Cannacord Adams in London, said in a telephone interview yesterday. “Once you get these reputational question marks, it is very, very difficult to contain.” The analyst cut her rating on Gartmore to “sell” from “hold.” To contact the reporters on this story: Tom Cahill in London at tcahill@bloomberg.net ; Sarah Jones in London at sjones35@bloomberg.net .

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Fortune’s Stanley Bing: The Stuff That CEOs Are Made Of

March 22, 2010

I’m sure there are many more important events going on in the world of business and finance today, but I don’t care. I’m too grouchy to write about them. I flew in from the left coast last night and didn’t get my normal three hours of shuteye on the plane. That’s because in the cabin with me was one of those horrendous, narcissistic, noisy, infantile Chief Executive Officer types. She kept all of us awake for the entire flight with her temper tantrums, squeals of outrage and general outlandish behavior. No one, not even her exhausted handlers, could control her. Which was pretty remarkable, because she couldn’t have been more than two feet tall on her tiptoes. That’s right. The young executive in question was a toddler of about two, and the way she manipulated everybody around her, making their lives miserable and ruining their peace of mind, can only be compared to the antics of successful senior officers, who have maintain this particular style since birth. First, upon boarding, she had a huge problem with her seat. So she screamed and yelled her head off for about an hour, solid. I had made a critical mistake. I was in a perfectly comfortable and quiet location in Business, but was upgraded. That’s always a flattering experience. Who questions such a move? From now on, I will. “Are there any insane babies in the First Class cabin?” will be my immediate question. A nice quiet seat location in Purgatory beats a luxury cabin in Hell any day. So the little baby screamed and yelled until we took off, and then, sobbing noisily, fell into a torpor until the food arrived. Then she vocalized a little more and threw it around the room for a while. I was strongly reminded of a mogul I know who, when served food from the wrong deli in the G4 not too long ago, actually hurled a chicken leg at the head of the flight attendant. Nobody spanked him, either. About halfway through the flight, the littlest CEO grew tired of fussing and decided to squeal in a high-pitched, siren kind of thing. For her own amusement, you know. She would emit this piercing noise, and then crack up at some private joke that was of absolutely no interest to anybody else. I had a boss like that once. He’s retired now, and spends most of his time in some kind of philanthropic effort. By the time we were landing, more than five hours into this ordeal, the entire First Class cabin was in a state not unfamiliar to anybody works one of these guys. Everybody was on edge. Nobody looked each other in the eye, for fear that somebody would do something to annoy the monster. All we wanted to do was get out of there. And the teeny tyrant babbled on, a river of barely intelligible needs constantly burbling from her, running around the enclosed space we were all to share as relative equals, commanding the entire attention of all who were in her vicinity. Not one of us stopped her. She reigned supreme. I wish I could tell you that reason, equality and good manners triumphed in the end. But it did not. And today, I find myself wondering what life must be like for those who must work for her full-time. Whatever power it is she possesses, they should probably bottle it and teach it at Wharton. Maybe they already do, come to think of it.

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Clinton Awaits Israeli Response on Commitment to U.S.-Brokered Peace Talks

March 16, 2010

By Indira A.R. Lakshmanan March 17 (Bloomberg) — Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the U.S. is seeking assurances from Israel and the Palestinian Authority of each side’s commitment to U.S.-brokered indirect peace talks following a flap over Israeli settlements. A scheduled trip to Israel and the Palestinian territories by U.S. special envoy George Mitchell was postponed in part because the Obama administration is awaiting a response from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to requests Clinton made during a phone call to him on March 12, State Department spokesman Phillip J. Crowley said yesterday. “We are engaged in a very active consultation with the Israelis over steps that we think would demonstrate the requisite commitment to this process,” Clinton told reporters in Washington yesterday. Mitchell was planning to set the so-called proximity talks in motion, adding momentum to President Barack Obama ’s efforts to settle Israeli-Palestinian differences and move toward creation of a Palestinian state. The Israeli government stood firm yesterday on its policy of building Jewish homes in all parts of Jerusalem in the face of U.S. objections and outbreaks of violence in the capital’s Arab neighborhoods. Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said any ban on Jewish building in east Jerusalem is unacceptable. “There can’t be a situation where only Jews are prohibited from building in Jerusalem, while Arabs are allowed to both build and buy,” Lieberman said in an interview with Israel Radio. Protesters Dispersed Police used stun grenades to disperse Palestinian protesters in two areas of east Jerusalem and arrested 60 of the demonstrators yesterday. Fifteen policemen were injured in the disturbances. Clinton said she had expressed to Netanyahu U.S. “dismay and disappointment” over Israel’s announcement during a visit last week by Vice President Joe Biden of plans to construct 1,600 apartments for Jewish residents in east Jerusalem. Palestinians want east Jerusalem as the site of a future capital of an independent state. The U.S. asked Palestinian leaders this week to refrain from any incitement that could stoke tension in the region. Clinton dismissed the suggestion that U.S.-Israeli relations were experiencing their worst strain in three decades, saying, “I don’t buy that,” and stressing Washington’s “close, unshakeable bond” with the Israeli people. Speech Planned Clinton plans to speak next week at the Washington policy conference of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which has called on the administration to “defuse the tension” with Israel. Michael Oren , the Israeli ambassador to the U.S., said in a statement late yesterday that “recent events do not — I repeat — do not represent the lowest point in relations between” the two countries. He added: “Though we differ on certain issues, our discussions are being conducted in an atmosphere of cooperation as befitting long-standing relations between allies. I am confident that we will overcome these differences shortly.” Clinton’s Call In the 43-minute call on March 12, Clinton told Netanyahu that the U.S. wants three things from Israel to prove its commitment to Mideast peace: a freeze on construction of the new housing units announced for east Jerusalem; a gesture to bolster the Palestinian Authority, such as the restoration of economic exchanges, and a pledge that talks would tackle substantive issues, such as the final status of Jerusalem and the return of refugees, a U.S. official familiar with the talks said. The official, who was privy to the talks, spoke on condition of anonymity because the conversation was private. A response from Netanyahu is possible as early as today, the official said. As a gesture to kick-start stalled peace talks, Netanyahu had pledged a 10-month settlement freeze, with certain exclusions, on territories annexed by Israel since 1967. Palestinian officials for the past year had opposed any return to negotiations without a settlement freeze first. Arab states earlier this month endorsed U.S. plans for indirect talks, in part because of Israel’s conditional moratorium. The State Department last week used some of its strongest language toward Israel since Obama took office, going so far as to question Israel’s attitude toward its friendship with the U.S. Crowley said Clinton had told Netanyahu that he would have to “demonstrate not just through words, but through specific actions, that they are committed to this relationship and to the peace process.” To contact the reporter on this story: Indira Lakshmanan in Washington at ilakshmanan@bloomberg.net

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MILF: Peace deal unlikely under Arroyo

March 13, 2010

MILF: Peace deal unlikely under Arroyo

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India Bombing Kills Nine, Prompts Opposition Calls to Scrap Pakistan Talks

February 14, 2010

By Saikat Chatterjee and Jay Shankar Feb. 14 (Bloomberg) — Nine people were killed when a bomb ripped through a bakery popular with international visitors in the Indian city of Pune, prompting opposition demands that the government cancels peace talks with neighboring Pakistan. Police said at least 53 people were injured late yesterday by the blast that ripped billboards from their mountings and left tables and chairs scattered in the street. It was the biggest terrorist strike in the nation since the 2008 Mumbai attack left 166 people dead and strained ties between the neighboring countries as India blamed Pakistan-based militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba. “Terror and talks cannot go together,” Prakash Javadekar, spokesman for the Bharatiya Janata Party , said in a phone interview today from the capital, New Delhi. “Pakistan is sponsoring terrorism. We can’t negotiate at this stage.” The Congress Party, which heads India’s ruling coalition, said people shouldn’t “jump to conclusions” about the impact of yesterday’s attack on the talks scheduled for Feb. 25 between the nations’ foreign secretaries. “The BJP should understand that people of this country don’t like people playing politics with terror,” spokesman Manish Tewari said in a televised address. The Mumbai assault interrupted five years of peace talks that led to increased cultural, transport and sporting links between the countries, which have fought three wars since independence in 1947, two of them over Kashmir. The divided Himalayan territory is claimed in full by both nations. Progress in Talks The government in New Delhi says progress in the talks depends on Pakistan ensuring its territory isn’t used for terrorist activities. Troubled relations between the two South Asian rivals are a concern for the Obama administration as it seeks to defeat a Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan aided by militants in Pakistan’s northwest. Home Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram said yesterday’s attack was “the biggest terror incident in 14 months.” Evidence “points to a plot to explode a device at a place frequented by foreigners and locals,” he said, adding that forensic investigations must be completed before it’s possible to say who was behind the bombing. A spiritual center near the bakery was among five locations surveyed by David Coleman Headley , a Chicago man indicted by the U.S. for scouting targets before the Mumbai terrorist attacks, Home Secretary Gopal K. Pillai told reporters. Headley, 49, the son of an American mother and Pakistani father who was born Daood Gilani, was arrested by U.S. authorities on Oct. 3 and has pleaded not guilty to the charges. Five Trips Prosecutors say he made five trips to Mumbai from 2006 to 2008, taking photographs and making videotapes of targets later attacked. “Irrespective of what happened in Pune, the government of India is pursuing the case of David Coleman Headley,” Chidambaram said. “We have not given up our case that we should be given access to Headley for interrogation.” Following the Mumbai attack, Chidambaram created a federal investigation agency, strengthened patrols of coastal areas and improved training for anti-terrorism police as part of a national security overhaul. Pillai said Dec. 9 that India remains vulnerable to terrorist attacks even after the revamp. Ports, power plants, nuclear installations, oil refineries and information technology firms are particularly vulnerable as groups based in India and abroad try to “wreck India’s economy,” he said. Rebel Groups Rebel groups in the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir have been fighting for independence from India or a union with Pakistan since 1989. The country also faces insurgencies in some northeastern states, while Maoist guerillas have attacked economic infrastructure and security forces in southern and eastern parts of the country. The attack was “overdue” rather than an attempt to “scuttle the peace between India and Pakistan,” Ajai Sahni , executive director of New Delhi-based Institute of Conflict Management said in a phone interview. “It’s a miracle that 2009 passed without a major incident. The surprise is it has taken so long coming.” To contact the reporters on this story: Saikat Chatterjee in New Delhi at schatterjee4@bloomberg.net ; Jay Shankar in Bangalore at jshankar1@bloomberg.net

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Karzai Says Afghanistan May Need Foreign Troops for Another 10 to 15 Years

January 28, 2010

By James Rupert and Thomas Penny Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) — A $500 million plan to entice Taliban fighters to quit the growing insurgency in Afghanistan will form the centerpiece of a conference in London after President Hamid Karzai warned that international troops may be needed in his country for as many as 15 years. More than 60 foreign ministers are meeting top Afghan officials to approve a political strategy backing the U.S.-led troop surge. The ministers will show support for Afghan President Hamid Karzai and resolve to stabilize his country, while countering falling public support for the war in Europe and the U.S. by offering a timeline for troops to come home. “This conference marks the beginning of the transition process, agreeing the conditions under which we can begin district by district, province by province, transferring the responsibility for security from international forces to Afghan forces,” U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown said in a speech today opening the one-day meeting. Governments at the conference will pledge about $500 million, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said, to provide jobs, homes and farming help for Taliban fighters who return to civilian life. Alexander Dobrindt, deputy leader of Merkel’s sister party, the Christian Social Union , dubbed the plan a “Taliban cash-for-clunkers” program. Conference attendees will also renew pressure on Karzai to reduce official corruption that has weakened his government. Karzai, in an interview with BBC television, said he’ll present a “new, invigorated” anti-corruption plan. The blueprint will include more deadlines, laws and regulations than previous plans, he said. Sanctions Lifted The reconciliation offer “goes to those who are not part of al-Qaeda or other terrorist networks who have accepted the Afghan constitution,” Karzai said. The United Nations Security Council this week lifted sanctions against five former Taliban officials, in what Afghan UN ambassador Zahir Tanin called “a message for anyone in the Taliban that wants to join the peace process.” The Taliban’s regional commander for southern Afghanistan, Akhtar Mohammad, dismissed the London conference as “nonsense that will do nothing to bring Taliban to the negotiating table.” In a telephone interview from an undisclosed location, Mohammad repeated the guerrillas’ demand that all foreign forces leave Afghanistan. In trying to stabilize the Afghan government before 2011, when the U.S. plans to begin reducing its military forces, governments may be hampered by Karzai’s political weakness. The Afghan leader has failed to get parliament to approve his full Cabinet 12 weeks after being declared the winner of a fraud- tainted election. ‘Loss of Momentum’ The conference, hosted by the British government , will try to reverse what “was essentially a loss of momentum in the whole Afghan project” last year because of distractions around the disputed elections, plus Taliban military gains, said Mark Sedwill , the British ambassador to Afghanistan, who was appointed this week as the top civilian North Atlantic Treaty Organization official in the country. In 2009, 520 NATO troops were killed in the Afghan war, a 76 percent jump over 2008, according to the casualty-monitoring Web site iCasualties.org . NATO is getting 38,500 reinforcements in Afghanistan that will bring its troop strength to almost 150,000 in the ninth year of the war. Foreign Troops Needed Afghanistan may need the support of international forces for as long as 15 years, Karzai told the BBC. For training the Afghan forces, “five to 10 years is enough,” Karzai said. “With regard to sustaining them, the time may be extended to 10 to 15 years.” Since 2003, several Afghan reconciliation plans have collapsed because the government failed to deliver on promises of land, money or jobs for Taliban who quit the war. “This time they have to be sure the money gets through,” said Shada Islam , an analyst at the European Policy Centre , a research institute in Brussels. The new effort has a better chance because it has greater international support, Afghan Finance Minister Omar Zakhilwal said in an interview with Bloomberg Television yesterday. The U.S. backs the plan, its special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Ambassador Richard Holbrooke , told MSNBC this week in an interview. Germany will contribute $70 million, Merkel has said. Mullah Omar A reconciliation program should work at local and provincial levels to woo lower-level Taliban, and should exclude the Taliban leadership including its commander, Mullah Omar , former Afghan Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah told Bloomberg Television in an interview yesterday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Afghanistan is seen as the world’s second-most corrupt country, according to the annual survey by Transparency International , a Berlin-based corruption-monitoring group. Graft has outstripped the country’s violence as the biggest worry for Afghans, 59 percent of whom called it their top concern in a survey released this month by the UN Office on Drugs and Crime. To contact the reporters on this story: James Rupert in New Delhi at jrupert3@bloomberg.net ; Thomas Penny in London at tpenny@bloomberg.net ;

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Taliban Pay-for-Peace Plan to Be Put in Motion at London Afghan Conference

January 27, 2010

By James Rupert Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) — A $500 million plan to entice Taliban fighters to quit the growing insurgency in Afghanistan will be put in motion today by governments at a conference in London. More than 60 foreign ministers will meet top Afghan officials to approve a political strategy backing the U.S.-led troop surge. The ministers will seek to show support for Afghan President Hamid Karzai and resolve to stabilize his country, while countering falling public support for the war in Europe and the U.S. by pledging troops can start coming home by 2011. “The trick in London will be to balance these two conflicting messages,” said Shada Islam , an analyst at the European Policy Centre , a research institute in Brussels. Governments attending the one-day meeting will pledge about $500 million to fund Taliban fighters who return to civilian life, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Jan 26. The money will go for housing, jobs and agriculture. A senior member of Merkel’s Christian Social Union sister party, CSU General Secretary Alexander Dobrindt, dubbed it a “Taliban cash-for- clunkers” program. Conference attendees also will renew pressure on Karzai to reduce official corruption that has weakened his government. “We have made it clear that we want a transparent Afghan government and that fighting corruption must be a high priority,” Merkel told reporters yesterday after meeting Karzai in Berlin. Sanctions Lifted The reconciliation bid comes as the United Nations Security Council this week lifted sanctions against five former Taliban officials, in what the Afghan UN ambassador, Zahir Tanin , called “a message for anyone in the Taliban that wants to join the peace process.” The Taliban dismissed the London talks as “a waste of time” and repeated demands for a pullout of international forces, Pakistan’s GEO television reported, citing an e-mailed statement. In trying to stabilize the Afghan government before 2011, when the U.S. plans to begin reducing its military force, governments may be hampered by Karzai’s political weakness. The Afghan leader has failed to get parliament to approve his full Cabinet 12 weeks after being declared the winner of a fraud- tainted election. The London meeting will skip some issues, in part because Afghan government departments “still don’t have permanent ministers in all of the jobs,” said Mark Sedwill , the British ambassador to Afghanistan, who was appointed this week as the top civilian North Atlantic Treaty Organization official in the country. ‘Loss of Momentum’ The conference, hosted by the British government , will try to reverse what “was essentially a loss of momentum in the whole Afghan project” last year because of distractions around the disputed elections, plus Taliban military gains, Sedwill told reporters last week. In 2009, 520 NATO troops were killed in the Afghan war, a 76 percent jump over 2008, according to the casualty-monitoring Web site iCasualties.org . Since 2003, several Afghan reconciliation plans have collapsed because the government failed to deliver on promises of land, money or jobs for Taliban who quit the war. “This time they have to be sure the money gets through,” said the European Policy Centre’s Islam. The new effort has a better chance because it has greater international support, Afghan Finance Minister Omar Zakhilwal said in an interview with Bloomberg Television yesterday. U.S. Backing The U.S. backs the plan, its special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Ambassador Richard Holbrooke , told MSNBC this week in an interview. Germany will contribute $70 million, Merkel has said. A reconciliation program should work at local and provincial levels to woo lower-level Taliban, and should exclude the Taliban leadership including its commander, Mullah Omar , former Afghan Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah told Bloomberg Television in an interview yesterday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. With governments in Britain, Germany and the U.S. losing support for any long-term commitment of their troops in Afghanistan, today’s conference will try to set “an indicative timeline” for NATO to hand over security control of districts and provinces to Afghan troops and police, Sedwill said. Merkel said yesterday she wants all security operations to be carried out by Afghan forces from 2014. Yet she said that setting any deadline for withdrawing foreign troops would be a “mistake” that would “only encourage the Taliban to carry out more attacks.” Corruption Concern Afghanistan is seen as the world’s second-most corrupt country, according to the annual survey by Transparency International , a Berlin-based corruption-monitoring group. Graft has outstripped the country’s violence as the biggest worry for Afghans, 59 percent of whom called it their top concern in a survey released this month by the UN Office on Drugs and Crime. Corruption has made it harder for Western governments to sell troop increases in Afghanistan to voters at home. NATO is getting 38,500 reinforcements in Afghanistan that will bring its troop strength to almost 150,000 in the ninth year of the war. While conceding that corruption is a problem rooted in “weak institutions” in Afghanistan, Zakhilwal disputed as “flawed” a conclusion by the UN report that Afghans pay annually the equivalent of 23 percent of the country’s gross domestic product in bribes. The Afghan government will detail its new anti-corruption plans at today’s conference, said Zakhilwal. “What we are aiming is not a 100 percent removal of corruption, but significant reduction, which will be possible.” To contact the reporter on this story: James Rupert in New Delhi at jrupert3@bloomberg.net .

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Democrat Dodd Won’t Seek Re-election to U.S. Senate After 29-Year Career

January 6, 2010

By John Brinsley and Michael Forsythe Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) — Senator Christopher Dodd , a five-term Connecticut Democrat trailing in the polls, will not run for re- election in November, according to a congressional aide familiar with the matter. Dodd, 65, will hold a press conference today to announce his decision, the aide said, speaking on condition of anonymity. Dodd spokeswoman Justine Sessions was unavailable for comment. The Washington Post reported the retirement plan earlier. Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal , a Democrat, told Bloomberg News that he will run for Dodd’s seat. He plans to hold a news conference today at 2:30 p.m. in Hartford. Blumenthal, a Democrat, said he favors a consumer financial protection agency and would focus on jobs and the economy. “We need financial regulatory reform and stronger advocacy and protection for consumers,” Blumenthal, 63, said in a telephone interview. “I’m going to fight for economic recovery relentlessly and tirelessly.” Dodd, as chairman of the Senate Banking Committee , has had a leading role in crafting an overhaul of U.S. financial rules, and last month he supported Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke for a second term. He is also a top Senate negotiator on legislation that would expand U.S. health-care coverage. Dorgan Announcement Dodd’s announcement would come a day after North Dakota Democratic Senator Byron Dorgan said he won’t seek re-election. The party is bidding to maintain its control of 60 votes in the 100-member chamber, the number needed to cut off stalling tactics that can be used to thwart legislation. Dorgan, 67, said in a statement yesterday that he wants to pursue other interests, including teaching, writing and working on “energy policy in the private sector.” “Although I still have a passion for public service and enjoy my work in the Senate, I have other interests and I have other things I would like to pursue outside of public life,” Dorgan said. Dorgan’s decision is a boost for Republicans. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report in Washington said in an update of its 2010 campaign analysis that his announcement “hands Republicans one of their best opportunities to pick up a Democratic-held seat” and “greatly diminishes the odds that Democrats can hold” their 60-vote mark in the Senate. Trailing in Poll A Nov. 3-8 Quinnipiac University survey showed Dodd trailing former Connecticut Republican Congressman Rob Simmons by 11 percentage points in a hypothetical contest for the November Senate race. The poll of 1,236 registered Connecticut voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points. Dodd’s popularity waned after Portfolio magazine reported in 2008 that he and Senator Kent Conrad , a North Dakota Democrat, received discounts on home loans from Countrywide Financial Corp., now part of Bank of America Corp. Both senators said they were unaware they were receiving preferential treatment. Dodd made a failed bid for his party’s nomination in the 2008 presidential election, moving his family to Iowa, where the first balloting was held. Not ‘Right Answer’ Dodd didn’t offer support last month for a proposal by Senator John McCain , an Arizona Republican, and Maria Cantwell , a Washington Democrat, to reinstate the Depression-era Glass- Steagall Act that split commercial and investment banking. The plan, which would require New York-based JPMorgan to split from Chase and would require Bank of America and Merrill Lynch & Co. to separate, was proposed to rein in Wall Street firms in response to the financial crisis. “There are other things we can do to break them up, but I’m not sure that’s the right answer,” Dodd said in a Dec. 16 interview. During his last re-election contest in 2004, Dodd counted employees of Bear Stearns Cos. and Citigroup Inc. as his top donors , according to the Washington-based Center for Responsive Politics, which tracks political donations. For his 2008 presidential bid, executives at the hedge fund SAC Capital Advisors LP, based in Stamford, Connecticut, were Dodd’s biggest backers, donating a combined $248,200, according to the center’s figures. Dodd served in the Peace Corps in the Dominican Republic in the 1960s and is a fluent Spanish speaker. His father, the late Thomas Dodd, was also a Connecticut senator. The elder Dodd also faced controversies and was censured by the Senate for ethical problems. To contact the reporters on this story: John Brinsley in Tokyo at jbrinsley@bloomberg.net ; Michael Forsythe at mforsythe@bloomberg.net

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Connecticut’s Dodd Won’t Run for Re-election; Blumenthal Will Seek Seat

January 6, 2010

By John Brinsley and Michael Forsythe Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) — Senator Christopher Dodd , a five-term Connecticut Democrat trailing in the polls, will not run for re- election in November, according to a congressional aide familiar with the matter. Dodd, 65, will hold a press conference today to announce his decision, the aide said, speaking on condition of anonymity. Dodd spokeswoman Justine Sessions was unavailable for comment. The Washington Post reported the retirement plan earlier. Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal , a Democrat, told the Associated Press today that he will run for Dodd’s seat. He planned to publicly announce his candidacy later today, AP said. Dodd, as chairman of the Senate Banking Committee , has had a leading role in crafting an overhaul of U.S. financial rules and last month supported Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke for a second term. He is also a top Senate negotiator on legislation that would expand U.S. health-care coverage. Dodd’s announcement would come a day after North Dakota Democratic Senator Byron Dorgan said he won’t seek re-election. The party is bidding to maintain its control of 60 votes in the 100-member chamber, the number needed to cut off stalling tactics that can be used to thwart legislation. Dorgan Announcement Dorgan, 67, said in a statement yesterday that he wants to pursue other interests, including teaching, writing and working on “energy policy in the private sector.” “Although I still have a passion for public service and enjoy my work in the Senate, I have other interests and I have other things I would like to pursue outside of public life,” Dorgan said. His decision is a boost for Republicans. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report in Washington said in an update of its 2010 campaign analysis that Dorgan’s announcement “hands Republicans one of their best opportunities to pick up a Democratic-held seat” and “greatly diminishes the odds that Democrats can hold” their 60-vote mark in the Senate. A Nov. 3-8 Quinnipiac University survey showed Dodd trailing former Connecticut Republican Congressman Rob Simmons by 11 percentage points in a hypothetical contest for the November Senate race. The poll of 1,236 registered Connecticut voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points. Home Loan Dodd’s popularity waned after Portfolio magazine reported in 2008 that he and Senator Kent Conrad , a North Dakota Democrat, received discounts on home loans from Countrywide Financial Corp., now part of Bank of America Corp. Both senators said they were unaware they were receiving preferential treatment. Dodd made a failed bid for his party’s nomination in the 2008 presidential election, moving his family to Iowa, where the first balloting was held. Dodd didn’t offer support last month for a proposal by Senator John McCain , an Arizona Republican, and Maria Cantwell , a Washington Democrat, to reinstate the Depression-era Glass- Steagall Act that split commercial and investment banking. The plan, which would require New York-based JPMorgan to split from Chase and would require Bank of America and Merrill Lynch & Co. to separate, was proposed to rein in Wall Street firms in response to the financial crisis. Not ‘Right Answer’ “There are other things we can do to break them up, but I’m not sure that’s the right answer,” Dodd said in a Dec. 16 interview. During his last re-election contest in 2004, Dodd counted employees of Bear Stearns Cos. and Citigroup Inc. as his top donors , according to the Washington-based Center for Responsive Politics, which tracks political donations. For his 2008 presidential bid, executives at the hedge fund SAC Capital Advisors LP, based in Stamford, Connecticut, were Dodd’s biggest backers, donating a combined $248,200, according to the center’s figures. Dodd served in the Peace Corps in the Dominican Republic in the 1960s and is a fluent Spanish speaker. His father, the late Thomas Dodd , was also a Connecticut senator. retaining 60 votes in the 100-member chamber. For Related News and Information: Stories on Congress: CNG Today’s top financial stories: FTOP Top Stories: TOP Stories on Dodd’s Campaign Donors: TNI ?13387312 CAMPFIN

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Lisa Earle McLeod: Emotions Count: Five Tough Leaderhip Lessons For 2010

December 28, 2009

We’ve all been told not to bring our emotions to the work. But the idea that feelings don’t belong in the office is one of the biggest myths in business today. If you want passionate customers, excited employees and motivated managers, how are you going create them if you don’t engage with people on an emotional basis? Like it or not, feelings count. The way people feel affects everything that they do. As we wrap up what Time Magazine referred to as “The Decade from Hell,” here are a few tough lessons we need to take into 2010. 1. Face Fear Fear is a paralyzing emotion. But you can’t make it go away by ignoring it or stuffing it down. It’s time to get the fear on the table and deal with it. Leaders have to acknowledge the angst in the air if we’re going to move past it. Speaking the truth about fear doesn’t make it worse; it enables people to deal with it. 2. Make Peace with Ambiguity The reality is, you can’t promise bonuses next year. You don’t know how the market may turn. We don’t even know what’s going to be invented in the next decade. You’ve got to be able to function in the face of uncertainty, and you’ve got to teach your people the discipline of doing the same. People still need goals, but the organizations that succeed in 2010 and beyond will be ones that are nimble, flexible and can turn on a dime. 3. No Secrets It’s a transparent world. You can no longer hide information about your compensation plan, a bad product or even a single bad customer or employee experience. Thanks to the Internet, the Sarasota grandma who thinks your CEO makes too much money and that your customer service people are rude is now empowered to create a YouTube video about her grievances and tweet it out to all her peeps. Lest you think your texts or e-mails are safe, ask Tiger Woods how much losing Gatorade cost him. Save yourself a scandal; don’t do anything you’ll need to cover up later. 4. Connectivity Is Key You’ve got to communicate authentically (and kindly) with everyone in your organization and outside it. Customers now know your product or company, warts and all, thanks to technology, so you need to learn to use it to your benefit. The Internet didn’t de-personalize the world; in many ways, it personalized it more. Companies can no longer treat the general public like one big, slobbering uber-consuming mass. You’ve got to make interpersonal connections with people if you want them to buy into you or your organization. 5. The “L” Word In the end, it all comes down to love. If you want your customers to love your product, your employees to love their jobs and the market to love your organization, you’ve got to be the one putting the love in before you can expect to get any back out. The situation we’re living with today is a direct result of the emotional climate we’ve created over the last 10 years. Choose greed, you get this. Choose love, and you’ll start creating something much better. Lisa Earle McLeod is an author, syndicated columnist and inspirational thought-leader. Her newest book is The Triangle of Truth: The Surprisingly Simple Secret to Resolving Conflicts Large and Small. (WATCH VIDEO) A popular keynote speaker, Lisa is principal of McLeod & More, Inc., a training and consulting firm specializing in sales, leadership and conflict management. www.TriangleofTruth.com

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Obama Says He Is Humbled by Nobel Peace Prize, Understands the Cost of War

December 10, 2009

By Julianna Goldman Dec. 10 (Bloomberg) — President Barack Obama said he was humbled to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize and used his acceptance speech to defend the concept of a “just war” that is necessary to further the cause of freedom and human rights. “Compared to some of the giants of history who have received this prize — Schweitzer and King; Marshall and Mandela — my accomplishments are slight,” he said during the Nobel ceremony in Oslo. “But perhaps the most profound issue surrounding my receipt of this prize is the fact that I am the commander-in-chief of a nation in the midst of two wars.” Obama said he has an “acute sense” of the price of military conflict at a time when he is deploying thousands of troops into battle. “Some will kill. Some will be killed,” he said. The Nobel ceremony in Oslo comes a little more than a week after the president announced deployment of 30,000 more U.S. troops to Afghanistan. He also is winding down the U.S. military commitment in Iraq even as terrorist violence continues. “I do not bring with me today a definitive solution to the problems of war,” Obama said. “We must begin by acknowledging the hard truth that we will not eradicate violent conflict in our lifetimes.” While expressing appreciation for the non-violent creed preached by Martin Luther King Jr . and Mahatma Gandhi, Obama said that as U.S. leader he can’t “be guided by their examples alone.” Necessary Force “I face the world as it is, and cannot stand idle in the face of threats to the American people,” Obama said. Negotiations didn’t stop Adolf Hitler and won’t stop al-Qaeda, he said. “To say that force is sometimes necessary is not a call to cynicism — it is a recognition of history; the imperfections of man and the limits of reason.” There are times and events where the use of military force is “not only necessary but morally justified,” he said. Among recent conflicts, Obama cited the military intervention in the Balkans, the first Gulf War to drive Iraqi armed forces under Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait and the U.S.-led overthrow of the Taliban in Afghanistan after the Sept. 11 attacks. He didn’t mention the 2003 invasion of Iraq to topple Hussein that was undertaken by his predecessor, former President George W. Bush . When war is waged, it must be done under universal standards of conduct, even when the enemy doesn’t follow the same code, Obama said. Standards for Conflict “I, like any head of state, reserve the right to act unilaterally if necessary to defend my nation,” he said. “Nevertheless, I am convinced that adhering to standards strengthens those who do, and isolates — and weakens — those who don’t.” Obama told his audience there are three ways to “build a just and lasting peace.” They include sanctions that “exact a real price;” the promotion of human rights; diplomacy and engagement; and economic security and opportunity. Security doesn’t exist, he said, “where human beings do not have access to enough food, or clean water, or the medicine they need to survive. “The absence of hope can rot a society from within.” Obama also said the world must come together to confront climate change. “There is little scientific dispute that if we do nothing, we will face more drought, famine and mass displacement that will fuel more conflict for decades,” Obama said. ‘Cooperative Climate’ While Obama is the third sitting U.S. president to win the prize, he’s the first to win it so early in his term. Former presidents Theodore Roosevelt won in 1906 and Woodrow Wilson won in 1919. Former President Jimmy Carter won in 2002 and former Vice President Al Gore received it in 2007, both after leaving office. Thorbjoern Jagland , chairman of the five-member Nobel committee , said the awarding of the Peace Prize this year “must be viewed in the light of the prevailing situation in the world, with great tension, numerous wars, unresolved conflicts and confrontations on many fronts.” Obama “has been trying to create a more cooperative climate which can help reverse the present trend,” Jagland said in the text of his remarks at the ceremony. “It is now, today, that we have the opportunity to support President Obama’s ideas. This year’s prize is indeed a call for action to all of us.” The president arrived in Oslo early today and went directly to the Nobel Institute where he signed a guest book in a room with walls covered with photographs of former laureates including slain civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr . The president said he and first lady Michelle Obama were touched by the wall of pictures. “When Dr. King won his prize, it had a galvanizing effect around the world, but also lifted his stature in the United States in a way that allowed him to be more effective,” Obama said. To contact the reporter on this story: Julianna Goldman in Washington at jgoldman6@bloomberg.net .

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Edward Harrison: A Minsky moment: How financial stability creates instability

December 4, 2009

This article originally appeared on my site Credit Writedowns Below are three videos from a talk at the 2009 Economics of Peace Conference in Sonoma, CA, where James Galbraith talks about the Hyman Minsky concept of the instability of stability. This concept is fundamental to the behavioural psychology behind capitalist systems.

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Lapham’s Quarterly: The Darkest Days: Black Friday, Saturday, Sunday, And The Rest

November 27, 2009

Despite the popularity of Black Friday among retailers and the local news media, every day of the week has at some point or another been described as “black.” In fact, an entire week can be cobbled together out of the darkness. For more dark days, visit www.laphamsquarterly.org . Our Deja Vu blog can be found here . Black Sunday (1977) 1977 movie about a blimp pilot / Vietnam veteran driven mad by torture as a POW who uses his intricate knowledge of blimps to attempt to detonate a bomb at the Super Bowl. Much of the film was shot live at Super Bowl X, in which the Dallas Cowboys triumphed over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Black Monday (1987) Describes the largest one-day decline in stock market history which occurred on Monday October 19 1987. Also ascribed to part of the Black Long Weekend of 1929 (see “Black Thursday” and “Black Tuesday”) Black Tuesday (1929, 2001) The day the financial repercussions of 1929′s Black Thursday set in, causing wide-spread panic when everyone attempted to pull out of the market at the same time. Also used to describe the events of September 11th, 2001. Black Wednesday (1992) Describes the situation in Britain on September 16, 1992 when the government was forced to withdraw the pound from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism due to currency speculators. The fiasco cost the UK Treasury an estimated 3.3 billion pounds. Black Thursday (1929, 1993) This was, of course, the day of the 1929 Stock Market Crash, but is it also used to describe a terrible Thursday in 1993 when Phillies player Pete Incavigila shouted obscenities at his fans and stormed out of an autograph session at the Granite Run Mall in Media, PA. Black Friday (1869, 1929, present) On September 24, 1869, during one of the great scandals of the Reconstruction era, two speculators sent the market into freefall by buying up government gold in a time the government was run primarily on credit. Black Friday is perhaps better known as, the day after Thanksgiving, on which the Christmas retail season pins most of its hopes. In the United Kingdom, it’s the name given to the last Friday before Christmas when widespread alcohol abuse is expected to occur and police are given extra leniency to combat any disturbances of the peace. Also in Europe, this is used to refer to the “Black Thursday” 1929 crash because of the time difference. Black Saturday (1621) Saturdays are rarely ruinous. The only Black Saturday on record occurred when a particularly nasty storm raged over the skies of Scotland on August 4th, 1621. This was largely regarded as the judgment of God on recent acts passed by the Scottish Parliament concerning the Episcopal Church.

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Terrorist Attacks Roil Businesses in Pakistan’s Punjabi Economic Heartland

November 17, 2009

By James Rupert and Farhan Sharif Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) — A spate of attacks in Pakistan’s Punjab as Islamic militants work more closely with the Taliban has raised business concern in the province that generates more than half of the country’s economic growth. Forty-two people were killed last month in Punjab, home to Pakistan’s largest bank and companies producing clothing for retailers Levi Strauss & Co. and Gap Inc. Recent increases in surveillance and arrests are unlikely to reverse the violence that killed more than 220 people in the province in the first 10 months of this year, 20 percent more than 2008, said Ayesha Siddiqa , a Punjabi researcher on military and security issues. The Karachi Stock Exchange 100 Index fell 2 percent last month, the most since January and only the third negative month this year, as bombings and militant assaults in major cities nationwide hurt investor confidence. “The implications of this war spreading to Punjab are pretty severe,” said Standard Chartered Plc economist Sayem Ali in Karachi. Punjab represents 55 percent of Pakistan’s gross domestic product, he said. With foreign direct investment down by 60 percent in the three months to September, “our domestic security problems cloud companies’ strategies for coming back into Pakistan any time soon.” Since the army began its biggest anti-Taliban offensive on Oct. 17 near the border with Afghanistan, bombings have killed about 350 people nationwide, mostly civilians. Cricket Ambush While Punjab has seen fewer terrorist attacks than Pakistan’s ethnic Pashtun northwest, guerrillas in Lahore attacked three police headquarters last month and ambushed the Sri Lankan national cricket team’s bus in March. Militants last month raided the army headquarters in Rawalpindi, also in Punjab. The province is home to about half of the country’s 180 million people . The government must continue to stand up to the guerrillas or “the violence will continue to spread and investors will not feel safe anywhere” in Pakistan, said Habib-ur-Rehman , who manages $48 million of stocks and bonds at Karachi-based Atlas Asset Management Ltd. Punjab is home to much of Pakistan’s textile sector and the nation’s largest bank by market value, MCB Bank Ltd. Textiles account for two-thirds of the country’s exports in a $165- billion economy. Pakistan’s overseas direct investment fell 58 percent to $463 million in the three months ended Sept. 30, from $1.1 billion a year ago, according to data from the central bank. Surveillance Cameras “We have to keep so many security guards, set up surveillance cameras at the factories,” said Raza Mansha , chief executive of D.G. Khan Cement Ltd., Pakistan’s second-biggest cement maker, based in Lahore, Punjab’s capital and the country’s second-largest city. It “adds to our non-productive expenses and gives foreign visitors a bad impression.” D.G. Khan Cement and MCB Bank are part of the Nishat Group, Pakistan’s largest industrial group. D.G. Khan shares fell 16 percent in October and have risen 4.3 percent this month. MCB was down 4 percent in October and is up 7 percent this month. The benchmark share index has gained 56 percent this year after losing 59 percent in 2008. It rose 2.6 percent yesterday. Interior Minister Rehman Malik told reporters last month that at least two Punjab-based groups — Jaish-e-Muhammad (Soldiers of Muhammad) and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (the Army of Jhang, a southern Punjab city) — were operating jointly with the Taliban and al-Qaeda to attack the Pakistani state. Limited Crackdown Still, Pakistan’s crackdown on jihadist groups in the province has been limited, and won’t reverse the decades of growth that have made the militant groups a durable part of the political landscape, said Siddiqa. “The state’s response really has been business-as-usual — selective pressure” rather than a systematic campaign against Islamic radicalism, Islamabad-based Siddiqa said in a phone interview. For Umer Mansha , chief executive officer of Lahore-based Nishat Mills Ltd. , that’s a worrying message. His company produces garments for San Francisco-based Levi-Strauss, the closely held maker of blue jeans and Dockers pants, and Gap, based in the same U.S. city and operator of the Old Navy and Banana Republic chains. “Textile buyers like to come, see and feel the product,” Mansha, whose company is also part of the Nishat Group, said in an interview Nov. 12. “Buyers are simply not willing to come here. It’s very hard to get new clients.” More Than Last Year More than 10,000 Pakistanis — civilians, security forces and militants — have died in the country’s violence this year, a rate 75 percent higher than last year’s record, according to the New Delhi-based Institute for Conflict Management . “The tactics used in recent attacks in Punjab, plus the literature recovered by police in making arrests, shows that there is more coordination and contact now between Punjab militants and the Arabs of al-Qaeda,” said Muhammad Amir Rana, director of the Islamabad-based Pak Institute for Peace Studies . Punjab Home Ministry and police officials didn’t respond to phone calls and e-mail messages asking how many alleged perpetrators have been detained in the province. The “poverty of southern Punjab in particular, and the covert support and funds that militants have had” from Arab donors and Pakistan’s military, “have let them build durable organizations,” said security researcher Siddiqa. “Militancy in Punjab is now a fixture.” To contact the reporter on this story: James Rupert in Lahore at jrupert3@bloomberg.net .

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All-Pro Larry Johnson Is Released by Chiefs Following Two-Week Suspension

November 9, 2009

By Mason Levinson Nov. 9 (Bloomberg) — Former All-Pro running back Larry Johnson was released by the Kansas City Chiefs after serving a two-week suspension, ending his seven-year tenure with the National Football League franchise. The move was announced in a two-paragraph news release posted on the team’s Web site. Johnson, who turns 30 on Nov. 19, was told to stay away from the team Oct. 27 after apologizing for making gay slurs on his Twitter Web site account and in an exchange with reporters. He also questioned Chiefs coach Todd Haley’s credentials on the social-networking site. Johnson was drafted 27th overall out of Penn State University in 2003 and departs Kansas City with 55 rushing touchdowns and 5,996 rushing yards, 75 short of breaking Priest Holmes’s all-time team mark. He broke the Chiefs’ rushing record in both 2005 and 2006, following his 1,750-yard season with a 1,789-yard campaign. He was named to the Pro Bowl both years and an All-Pro in 2006. Johnson failed to amass even half as many yards in any other season. He had a career-low 2.7 yards-per-carry average in 2009 with 358 yards through seven games for Kansas City, which yesterday fell to 1-7. Johnson also was suspended for one week last season by NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell for breaking rules of conduct. He was sentenced to two years probation after pleading guilty to two counts of disturbing the peace for separate incidents involving women at nightclubs, the Associated Press reported. Johnson signed a six-year contract to remain with Kansas City in August 2007. It included a $19 million guarantee, AP said. To contact the reporter on this story: Mason Levinson in New York at mlevinson@bloomberg.net .

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Netanyahu Departs for Washington With Middle East Peace Effort in Disarray

November 8, 2009

By Jonathan Ferziger Nov. 8 (Bloomberg) — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu headed for Washington today after a round of diplomacy that may have narrowed gaps with President Barack Obama while slowing peace efforts with the Palestinians. Netanyahu will give a speech Monday to an annual conference of North American Jewish organizations. He did not respond when asked by reporters aboard his plane whether he would meet with Obama during the trip. The visit comes just a week after Netanyahu won praise from Secretary of State Hillary Clinton for his “unprecedented” proposal to limit West Bank settlement expansion to completion of around 2,500 new homes. That was a turnaround from the U.S. position last May that Israel must freeze all settlement building, and one that left Palestinian leaders upset. “This isn’t easy for the Palestinians to absorb because Obama made such an extreme effort early on to improve the U.S. relationship with the Arab world,” said Dan Schueftan , director of the National Security Studies Center at Haifa University. “It’s very tricky and Obama doesn’t want to look too cozy with Netanyahu right now, but eventually they’ll work something out.” Palestinian leaders are insisting on an end to all settlement construction as a precursor to resuming peace talks. By the end of the week, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas withdrew his candidacy for re-election and others within his Fatah party warned of a new outbreak of violence. ‘Settlements or Peace’ “Israel has a choice: settlements or peace,” said Abbas’s top negotiator, Saeb Erakat . Nabil Shaath , an aide to Abbas, said there was a risk of violence if Israel continues to build settlements. At Clinton’s meeting last week with Arab leaders in Marrakech, Morocco, which was overshadowed by her shift on settlements, Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa said the remarks had crippled the Middle East peace process. “Failure is in the atmosphere all over,” he said. Since then, the secretary of state and other administration officials have been backtracking, saying Palestinian advances in training security forces on the West Bank were also “unprecedented” and that Obama still considers Israeli settlements illegal. That wasn’t enough for Abbas, who spoke in a prime time televised address on Nov. 5 to tell Palestinians that he had “no desire” to run again for the presidency in elections scheduled for January. Meeting Agenda During his trip, Netanyahu will likely focus on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Iran’s nuclear program, and a United Nations report that said Israel may have committed war crimes in the Gaza Strip. The prime minister had no scheduled meetings with Obama, Clinton or other senior administration officials, according to his spokesman Mark Regev , who spoke before the departure. The only item on his agenda in Washington was the speech to the General Assembly of the United Jewish Communities, an umbrella group for North American Jewish organizations. Netanyahu is expected to stop in Paris on his way back from the U.S., according to the prime minister’s office. Regev said no meeting with President Nicolas Sarkozy has been scheduled. Schueftan suggested the lack of clarity over Netanyahu’s movements this week derives from the raw feelings left by Clinton’s Middle East tour. “Obama had a slow learning curve but now he understands that Netanyahu couldn’t freeze settlement completely even if he wanted to,” Schueftan said. “It’s going to take some time for the Palestinians to get used to this but I don’t think it’s going to shut off the peace process.” To contact the reporters on this story: Jonathan Ferziger in Tel Aviv at jferziger@bloomberg.net

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Clinton Detours to Cairo to Calm Arab Concerns, Press for Mideast Peace

November 3, 2009

By Indira A.R. Lakshmanan Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) — Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will seek to give a push to the Middle East peace process and allay Arab concerns about the U.S. role in talks today with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak . “Mubarak is a very adroit reader of the parties” who has “a very good working relationship” with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu , State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley told reporters traveling with Clinton, who arrived in Cairo yesterday after four days of intensive discussions with leaders in the region. She wants to see Mubarak “face to face” to discuss pushing the stalled peace process forward, Crowley said. Clinton’s detour to Egypt before returning to Washington reflects President Barack Obama’s push to engage all parties to press Israel and the Palestinians back to the bargaining table. While Obama has made a two-state solution a priority, the gap between the two sides requires energy to keep the process alive and expectations are low for a breakthrough anytime soon, officials say. “Without this effort, it’s likely that things would go from difficult to worse,” Crowley said of Clinton’s consultations since Oct. 31 with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in Abu Dhabi, Netanyahu in Jerusalem and Arab leaders at a conference in Marrakech, Morocco. Pitfalls of Waiting Waiting for perfect conditions “is never a good thing,” Crowley said. “Sometimes the effort has an impact in and of itself.” Clinton met with Egyptian intelligence chief Omar Suleiman in Cairo last night to discuss his efforts to encourage a unity government between rival Palestinian factions, Fatah and Hamas, and with Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit . She also conferred in Cairo with U.S. special envoy George Mitchell , who has been meeting with Israeli and Palestinian leaders and King Abdullah of Jordan, the only Arab state aside from Egypt to recognize Israel. Clinton suggested yesterday in Morocco that she “could have been clearer” when she hailed as “unprecedented” a proposal from Netanyahu to limit, not freeze, the expansion of Israeli settlements on the West Bank. The comments, during her Oct. 31 visit to Jerusalem, sparked an outcry from Arab leaders. “President Obama was absolutely clear,” she said in an interview taped with Al Jazeera before she left Marrakech. “He wanted a halt to all settlement activity. And perhaps those of us who work with him and for him could have been clearer in communicating that that is his policy, that is what we’re committed to doing.” Palestinian State Clinton said she “was the first American associated with any administration to call for the establishment of a Palestinian state” 10 years ago. “A lot of people thought that was very radical; now there is consensus.” Tempering her earlier praise for Netanyahu’s offer, Clinton said at a Nov. 2 gathering of Arab and Group of Eight foreign ministers in Morocco that it “falls far short” of U.S. calls for a total settlement freeze. Steps to improve West Bank security by Palestinian Authority President Abbas and Prime Minister Salam Fayyad were also “unprecedented” and Israel “should reciprocate,” Clinton said. The decision to clarify her remarks underscores the Obama administration’s balancing act in nudging Israelis and Palestinians back to talks. Last May, Clinton said only a complete construction halt in the West Bank would be acceptable. In September after meeting Abbas and Netanyahu at the United Nations, Obama referred only to a “restraint” in settlements. Libyan Meeting Before leaving the Marrakech conference yesterday, Clinton met with Libyan Foreign Minister Musa Kusa, a former intelligence chief when the U.S. classified Libya as a state sponsor of terrorism. The countries normalized relations in 2003, and the U.S. has credited Kusa and Libyan intelligence with cooperating against al-Qaeda. Clinton and Kusa discussed Sudan, Darfur and counterterrorism, said Crowley, who attended the meeting. He said they didn’t raise the case of Abdel Basset al-Megrahi , the Lockerbie bomber whose August release from a Scottish prison to Libya angered families of the 270 airline-crash victims. “While the issue of Megrahi did not come up, our views on that have not changed and the Libyans understand” that “very well,” Crowley said. Before Clinton walked back her settlement remarks, Amre Moussa, secretary-general of the 22-member Arab League and a senior Egyptian diplomat, said he feared the peace process had been crippled. Arab Criticism “Failure is in the atmosphere all over,” he said. Clinton’s words left the impression that “Israel can get away with anything.” Clinton’s clarification didn’t allay the Arab League’s frustration over the apparent U.S. retreat from demanding a settlement freeze, Hisham Youssef, Moussa’s spokesman, said in a telephone interview yesterday. As recently as the 2007 peace conference in Annapolis, Maryland, Israel committed to stopping settlements under the Bush administration’s 2003 “road map” for peace and must do so before talks can start, he said. Clinton’s revised remarks satisfied Palestinian Foreign Minister Riad Malki , who told reporters in Marrakech his government was “happy that such a position was highlighted and brought back to the right line.” Clinton corrected herself in her Al Jazeera interview after aides pointed out she misspoke by saying the Camp David accords under her husband Bill Clinton’s administration would have achieved an Israeli capital in East Jerusalem. She meant a Palestinian capital. To contact the reporters on this story: Indira Lakshmanan in Cairo at ilakshmanan@bloomberg.net

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Clinton Tempers Praise for Israel to Calm Arabs on Settlements Proposal

November 2, 2009

By Indira A.R. Lakshmanan Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) — Facing criticism from Arab leaders, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton tempered praise of Israel’s offer to restrict West Bank settlements and announced a trip to Egypt to confer with President Hosni Mubarak about the stalled Mideast peace process. Two days after hailing an “unprecedented” proposal from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to limit settlement expansion as a move to resume peace talks, Clinton yesterday said the offer “falls far short” of U.S. calls for a total settlement freeze. Steps to improve West Bank security by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Salam Fayyad “are also unprecedented,” she said, and “Israel should reciprocate.” Clinton’s comments, at a two-day regional forum in Marrakech, Morocco, aimed to assure Arab and Palestinian leaders that her positive words in Israel didn’t mean acceptance of what she called illegitimate Jewish settlements. The decision to clarify her remarks underscores the delicate balancing act the Obama administration faces in trying to nudge Israelis and Palestinians back to the bargaining table. Israel is obliged to freeze all Jewish settlements in occupied territories under a 2003 framework for peace brokered by the Bush administration. Last May, Clinton said only a complete construction halt would be acceptable to President Barack Obama . Last month, Obama referred only to “restraint” in settlement activity, not a “freeze.” Under Fire Clinton has come under fire from Arab leaders and media for her enthusiasm in an Oct. 31 news conference in Jerusalem over Netanyahu’s proposal to limit settlements. Hours earlier, she had met in Abu Dhabi with Abbas , who rejected anything short of a total settlement freeze. Her praise of the Israeli proposal was widely seen as putting pressure on Palestinian authorities. Before Clinton walked back her earlier remarks, Amre Moussa, secretary-general of the 22-member Arab League and a senior Egyptian diplomat, told reporters he feared the peace process had been crippled by her comments in Jerusalem. “I still wait until we have our meetings,” said Moussa, also in Morocco for the Forum for the Future conference. “But failure is in the atmosphere all over.” “All of us, including Saudi Arabia, including Egypt, are deeply disappointed” by Clinton’s words in Jerusalem, he said. She “left the impression that “Israel can get away with anything.” Position Unchanged Clinton, seated alongside Moroccan Foreign Minister Taieb Fassi-Fihri an hour later, referred to a prepared statement when asked if her comments had undermined trust in the peace effort. “The Obama administration’s position on settlements is clear, unequivocal, it has not changed,” she said. The U.S. “does not accept the legitimacy of continued Israeli settlements.” Clinton said her intent was to “offer positive reinforcement to the parties when I believe they are taking steps that support the objective of reaching a two-state solution.” She said she “will also push them, as I have in public and private, to do even more.” Her clarification satisfied Palestinian Foreign Minister Riad Malki . “We are happy that such a position was highlighted and brought back to the right line,” Malki told reporters in Marrakech. Two-State Solution Palestinians “completely appreciate the sincere efforts made by President Obama and his team” to make a settlement freeze “a top priority,” and “believe in his sincerity in his commitment” to a two-state solution, Malki said. At the same time, Malki said, the Palestinian Authority is worried that the U.S. “might reach a point where they feel that they cannot really push any further with the Israelis.” Haim Malka , deputy director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said by telephone that Clinton “is trying to put a positive spin on the positions of both sides with the hope that direct negotiations can still be cobbled together.” Calling it a “tough sell,” Malka said “the gaps between both sides are so far apart right now that those negotiations are not going to get very far” even if they start. Cairo was added late yesterday as a last-minute destination in Clinton’s weeklong trip from Pakistan to the Persian Gulf, Israel and Morocco. Douse Criticism Asked if the trip was an effort to douse criticism from one of only two Arab states that recognize Israel, Crowley said Clinton wanted to consult with Egypt while in the region and the country hadn’t sent a senior official to the Morocco conference. The U.S. must provide “guarantees about issues of settlements, East Jerusalem and the peace efforts in general,” Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit said in a news conference in Cairo the day after Clinton spoke in Jerusalem. Netanyahu said Sept. 17 that about 2,400 new homes are already under construction in the West Bank and plans for another 500 or so have been approved. The U.S. understanding of Netanyahu’s proposal to restrain settlements is that the homes already under construction could be completed, while others approved or in the planning stages wouldn’t start, a senior State Department official told Bloomberg News. The prime minister has also promised not to take over any more Palestinian land in the West Bank to expand settlements. Clinton said Netanyahu’s plan “falls far short of what we would characterize as our position or what our preference would be, but if it is acted upon, it will be an unprecedented restriction on settlements and would have a significant and meaningful effect on restraining their growth.” Israeli-Palestinian negotiations broke down in December when Israel began a military operation in the Gaza Strip. To contact the reporters on this story: Indira Lakshmanan in Marrakech, Morocco at ilakshmanan@bloomberg.net

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Clinton Seeks to Prod Israelis, Palestinians to Table During Mideast Trip

October 30, 2009

By Indira A.R. Lakshmanan and Jonathan Ferziger Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) — Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has returned to the Middle East in a bid to prod Israelis and Palestinians to the negotiating table five weeks after President Barack Obama failed to kick-start peace talks. Clinton flew from Pakistan late yesterday to Abu Dhabi on the Persian Gulf, where she plans to meet Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas . Late today, she will head to Israel for consultations with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu , who has resisted U.S. pressure to halt settlement construction in the West Bank as a gesture toward peacemaking with the Palestinians. The Mideast swing comes a week after Clinton reported to Obama that it is premature to resume formal Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations. The Palestinians need to do more to stop incitement and prevent terror, and Israel needs to do more to improve the lives of the Palestinians, an administration official said Clinton told Obama. Obama had ordered a review of the peace effort after holding a three-way meeting with Abbas and Netanyahu Sept. 22 in New York. “We are going to continue down this road and do everything we can to clear away whatever concerns that the parties have, to actually get them into negotiations where they then can thrash out all of these difficult issues,” Clinton said in an interview with CNN before she left Pakistan. In Jerusalem, Netanyahu met yesterday with U.S. envoy George Mitchell to prepare for the Clinton meeting and said he hoped the secretary of state would enable Israelis and Palestinians to restart peace talks “as soon as possible.” Extended Diplomacy Still, Clinton may be anticipating extended diplomacy before the U.S. can show results. Abbas has said he won’t return to the negotiating table until Netanyahu backs a settlement freeze. “From the very beginning, the Obama administration set a goal of demonstrating progress in a Palestinian-Israeli peace track,” Gerald Steinberg , a Bar-Ilan University political scientist, said in a telephone interview. “If there can’t be progress, there can at least be lots of effort, which means more visits and more photo opportunities.” Palestinians have been losing faith in Obama’s peacemaking ability and in U.S. policies in the Mideast, according to a survey released Oct. 18 by the Jerusalem Media & Communications Center. Slightly less than 24 percent of those questioned said Obama could boost chances of peace, down from 35.4 percent who in June said they were optimistic about U.S. participation in the Mideast effort, according to the poll. ‘Some Kind of Gesture’ “I don’t think that Abbas will go back to the table without at least satisfying the issue of settlement expansion,” said Mkhaimar Abusada, a political scientist at Al-Azhar University in the Gaza Strip. “There has to be some kind of gesture from Netanyahu, even if it’s just temporary.” Israelis and Palestinians are still fighting over the same issues since peace talks began through the 1993 Oslo accords at a White House ceremony presided over by former President Bill Clinton , Hillary Clinton’s husband. The agenda includes the future of Jerusalem, the fate of Palestinian refugees and the borders of a future Palestinian state. “I watched in the ‘90s as my husband just kept pushing and pushing and pushing and good things happened,” Hillary Clinton said in the CNN interview. “There wasn’t a final agreement but fewer people died, there were more opportunities for economic development, for trade, for exchanges. It had positive effects, even though it didn’t cross the finish line.” Iran Deal Clinton’s stopover in the Persian Gulf emirate of Abu Dhabi comes after Iran demanded changes to a United Nations-brokered deal that would send Iranian enriched uranium to Russia for processing into nuclear fuel for a Tehran research reactor. The Iranian reaction cast doubts over wider talks to allay suspicions Iran is seeking the means to build a nuclear weapon. Netanyahu praised the offer made to Iran, according to an e-mailed statement from his office. The proposal “is a positive first step,” Netanyahu told Mitchell yesterday in Jerusalem. The United Arab Emirates, an oil-producing U.S. ally that hosts American military bases, is a trading partner for Iran, which ships three-quarters of its refined fuel imports through Emirati ports. The U.S. Congress is considering legislation aimed at cutting off gasoline deliveries to Iran, which relies on imports to meet a third of its refined fuel needs. Clinton plans to meet with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan during her visit. The crown prince, who is also deputy supreme commander of the U.A.E. armed forces, conferred with Obama at the White House in September. ‘No Coincidence’ “Clinton’s trip is no coincidence,” said Christopher Davidson , a Middle Eastern studies professor at Durham University in the U.K. “The U.A.E. has now become a major element in U.S. foreign policy because of Iran.” Dubai, the second-largest of the seven emirates in the U.A.E. after Abu Dhabi, also is a destination for Iranian investment and maintains trade and financial links. “Dubai is Iran’s main window to the global economy, and the U.S. is likely to press the U.A.E. to control Dubai’s relations with Iran,” said Davidson, author of “Dubai: The Vulnerability of Success,” published last year. To contact the reporters on this story: Indira Lakshmanan in Abu Dhabi at ilakshmanan@bloomberg.net ; Jonathan Ferziger in Jerusalem at jferziger@bloomberg.net

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Clinton Says UN Monitors Need Broader Powers to Find Secret Nuclear Sites

October 21, 2009

By Janine Zacharia Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) — Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said United Nations inspectors should get broader powers to detect secret nuclear facilities such as an underground Iranian uranium enrichment site revealed last month. “The International Atomic Energy Agency doesn’t have the tools or authority to carry out its mission effectively,” Clinton said in a speech today to the U.S. Institute of Peace in Washington. “We saw this in the institution’s failure to detect Iran’s covert enrichment plant and Syria’s reactor project.” Among the powers inspectors should be given is the ability to probe nuclear weapons-related activities even when nuclear materials aren’t present, Clinton said. The IAEA should also be able to carry out aggressive, short-notice inspections more widely, she said. Clinton coupled her call for a stronger IAEA with warnings to Iran to suspend uranium enrichment in accordance with UN demands, and to North Korea to scrap its nuclear weapons program if it wants a normalized relationship with the U.S. “Current sanctions will not be relaxed until Pyongyang takes verifiable, irreversible steps toward complete denuclearization,” Clinton said. “Its leaders should be under no illusion that the United States will ever have normal, sanctions-free relations with a nuclear-armed North Korea.” China’s government has renewed its commitment to UN- approved sanctions against North Korea, two weeks after Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao met North Korean leader Kim Jong Il in Pyongyang and agreed to an aid package for the regime, the U.S. said this week. U.S. Arsenal Alongside efforts to curtail the nuclear ambitions of North Korea and Iran should be a reassessment of the role of atomic weapons, Clinton said. The U.S. can’t continue to rely on “recycled Cold War thinking” and must reduce the size of its nuclear weapons arsenal and the role of the arms in American defense strategy, she said. “We can reduce our stockpiles of nuclear weapons without posing any risk to our homeland, our deployed troops or our allies,” Clinton said. “Clinging to nuclear weapons in excess of our security needs does not make the United States safer.” The U.S. is reviewing its nuclear posture. It is also negotiating to renew a treaty with Russia, set to expire Dec. 5, that governs the size of U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals and how they are inspected. While focusing on Iranian and North Korean nuclear efforts, the U.S. has also drawn attention to other countries it says have tried to develop an atomic capability. U.S. officials said last year that Syria was trying to build a secret reactor facility with North Korean help. The site was bombed by Israeli warplanes in September 2007. To contact the reporter on this story: Janine Zacharia in Washington at jzacharia@bloomberg.net

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Afghan Presidential Runoff Vote Is `a Likely Scenario,’ Karzai Envoy Says

October 16, 2009

By Indira A.R. Lakshmanan and Viola Gienger Oct. 16 (Bloomberg) — A runoff election between Afghan President Hamid Karzai and his main challenger is “a likely scenario,” Afghanistan’s ambassador to the U.S., Said Jawad , said as an announcement of ballot-recount results draws near. A probe by Afghan and United Nations officials into allegations of fraud in the Aug. 20 presidential election has trimmed Karzai’s share of the vote to 47 percent, the Washington Post reported today citing unnamed officials. A preliminary count last month put Karzai’s vote at almost 55 percent, higher than the more than 50 percent needed to avoid a runoff. Early November would be the latest the new vote could be held between Karzai and former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah because the extreme winter cold would make turnout difficult, Jawad told the U.S. Institute of Peace in Washington. “If it’s delayed until spring, that’s a recipe for disaster,” Jawad said yesterday. The Afghan government and its projects would be “in limbo,” he said, putting pressure on both the U.S. and Afghanistan to deliver results without a new president and cabinet. The commission investigating fraud will announce its findings in the next day or two, State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said today. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said in a CNN interview that Afghans should follow “whatever their recommendation is” and predicted that if a second round is held, the likelihood of Karzai winning “is pretty high.” Obama Reconsiders President Barack Obama’s advisers have said Afghanistan needs a legitimate, stable government to harness the support of the country’s people and security forces to marginalize extremists. The uncertainty surrounding the election was among the elements that prompted Obama to reconsider U.S. strategy and troop levels in the country. “We don’t have any favorites in this race,” White House spokesman Bill Burton told reporters aboard Air Force One with the president today. “The legitimacy of this election and its outcome is in the hands of the Afghan people,” Burton said. “We’re looking for them to get through this process just like everyone else is.” Bruce Riedel , a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, said the “most immediate requirement we need is to fix the Afghan election fiasco.” “If there is a second round,” as looks increasingly likely, “we need to make sure it is not marred” by fraud and corruption, said Riedel, who led Obama’s interagency Afghan- Pakistan strategy review earlier this year after advising the National Security Council under the last three presidents. Coalition Government Karzai probably will try to organize a “national participation government,” Jawad said in an interview yesterday, without giving details. A coalition government would create problems such as the requirement to dole out appointments based on loyalty rather than merit, Jawad said. For now, the Obama administration can help cool tensions after the recount by making “tough decisions” to press both sides toward an agreement, said Ashraf Ghani , a former finance minister in Afghanistan who ran fourth in the election. “One party or the other is going to contest the decision and is going to declare it illegitimate,” Ghani said yesterday at the Atlantic Council of the United States, a policy group in Washington. “The key is to get all parties on board to accept a road map, reach an understanding and move on.” Alternatives Ghani said a coalition government is a possible solution to an impasse. Another alternative, he said, would be an interim administration similar to the one established in 2002 after the U.S. ousted the Taliban for harboring al-Qaeda, the group responsible for the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on the U.S. Still another would be a national government with specific goals and timelines for delivering public services, Ghani said. Or, the U.S. could bypass the central government and concentrate on working with local leaders, he said. Obama’s presidency “in part rests on getting Afghanistan right, as does the future of my people,” Ghani said. Karzai is indisputably a force in Afghanistan even after the fraud allegations, Ghani said. Still, the president “understands the depth of the crisis of his legitimacy,” Ghani said. “Without international support, Mr. Karzai’s government could not last 10 days.” Clinton said earlier this week that the U.S. will expect the next Afghan president to increase stability in the country. Karzai Helpful When asked about a potential Karzai victory, Clinton told British Broadcasting Corp. radio that he “had been very helpful on many fronts.” “If this election results in him being re-elected, there must be a new relationship between him and the people of Afghanistan, between his government and governments which are supporting the efforts in Afghanistan to stabilize and secure the country,” Clinton said. Afghanistan’s Independent Election Commission said on Sept. 16 that Karzai held a nominal lead of almost 55 percent, compared with 28 percent for Abdullah. The commission joined with a separate Electoral Complaints Commission composed of two Afghans and three foreign officials to announce on Sept. 24 an audit of suspect ballots by sampling. Kai Eide , the top UN envoy to Afghanistan, said at an Oct. 11 news conference in Kabul there was “significant fraud” at some voting stations. To contact the reporters on this story: Indira Lakshmanan in Washington at ilakshmanan@bloomberg.net ; Viola Gienger in Washington at vgienger@bloomberg.net .

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Clinton to Urge Northern Ireland to Push Ahead With Peace in Belfast Visit

October 11, 2009

By Janine Zacharia and Colm Heatley Oct. 12 (Bloomberg) — Secretary of State Hillary Clinton wades into the Northern Ireland peace process today during a visit to Belfast meant to push for implementation of a peace deal negotiated during her husband’s presidency. Clinton will be the first senior foreign dignitary to address the regional Stormont assembly, which is battling a recession that has seen property prices slump and unemployment soar amid the worst upsurge in terrorist violence in a decade. A row over policing between the pro-U.K. Democratic Unionist Party and the Irish nationalist Sinn Fein party has recently threatened the accord, negotiated in 1998 by former U.S. Senator George Mitchell , now President Barack Obama’s Middle East peace envoy. Clinton’s visit follows one by U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown , who a week ago met with Northern Ireland’s political leaders in an attempt to resolve a dispute over the appointment of a policing minister for the U.K. region. Brown pushed for agreement between First Minister Peter Robinson of the DUP and Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness , of the pro-united Ireland Sinn Fein party, to agree to a timeframe for the devolution of powers. The two parties are the biggest in the power-sharing assembly. Sinn Fein insists the policing and justice powers need to be devolved to the assembly before the end of the year, while the DUP has refused to set a timeframe for the transfer. In June 2008, Sinn Fein exercised a veto on the assembly over the issue, causing the suspension of the ruling executive for five months. ‘Essential Milestone’ “The step of devolution for policing and justice is an absolutely essential milestone,” Clinton said yesterday in Dublin in a preview of her remarks. “Clearly, there are questions and some apprehensions, but I believe that due to the concerted effort of the British government, the Irish government, the support of friends like us in the United States, that the parties understand that this is a step they must take together.” Northern Ireland’s Irish National Liberation Army said yesterday it rejected violence and pledged to achieve its objectives peacefully, following the lead of the U.K. region’s other main terrorist groups who fought in the four-decade long conflict known as “The Troubles.” The violence claimed more than 3,500 lives. The INLA, which killed 113 people during its 30-year campaign to unite Ireland, “no longer wants to maintain a military option and is pledged to supporting peace,” Martin McMonagle, who sits on the executive of the INLA-aligned Irish Republican Socialist Party said yesterday in a telephone interview. Earlier, McMonagle gave the same message to a crowd of republicans in Bray, County Wicklow. Renounced Violence All of the main terrorist groups who fought in Northern Ireland’s conflict have now renounced violence. Still, the peace process has been shaken by violence this year. Dissident republican terrorists, opposed to the power sharing, killed two British soldiers and a policeman in gun attacks in March, the first fatalities for the military in the region since 1997. Last month dissidents planted a 600-pound (272-kilogram) bomb in a bid to kill police and since July have been blamed for orchestrating riots in Belfast. Clinton stayed at Belfast’s Europa Hotel, which was the most-bombed in Europe during the conflict. Clinton, who appointed a special economic envoy for Northern Ireland, said the region could thrive if it moved forward with the peace process. Economic Slump The global economic slump is already undermining the peace dividend in Northern Ireland. Unemployment has almost doubled in the past year as companies from Caterpillar Inc . to Ulster Bank Ltd. cut jobs amid the global recession. House prices have fallen by almost 35 percent since hitting a peak of 227,970 pounds in late 2007, according to Nationwide Building Society. Clinton noted that she often refers to the Northern Ireland peace process as an inspiration to other foes to make peace. “Many people who are despairing over the prospects of peace look to Northern Ireland,” she said yesterday after meeting with Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen . “They think to themselves that if it could be done there, then perhaps we, too, have a chance to try to cross that border between conflict and peace.” Before flying to Belfast yesterday, Clinton made an impromptu, campaign-like stop in downtown Dublin, detouring to Grafton Street, the city’s fashionable main drag, while en route to the airport. Clinton stunned patrons first at Bewley’s cafe when she came in and ordered a cappuccino. She then walked to an Irish pub, McDaids, and hoisted a Harp beer as people there cheered and raised glasses of Guinness to her. To contact the reporters on this story: Janine Zacharia in Belfast, Ireland at jzacharia@bloomberg.net ; Colm Heatley in Belfast at cheatley@bloomberg.net .

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Nobel Peace Prize Award to Obama Generates Surprised, Divided Reactions

October 9, 2009

By Jeff Bliss and Meera Bhatia Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) — The award of the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize to President Barack Obama caught the winner off guard, divided Washington along familiar partisan lines and left foreign-policy experts and some past recipients puzzling over the choice. “I am both surprised and deeply humbled,” Obama, 48, said in the White House Rose Garden yesterday. Summing up much of the worldwide reaction, he said, “I do not view it as a recognition of my own accomplishments, but rather as an affirmation of American leadership.” Democrats defended the prize as an endorsement of Obama’s diplomatic initiatives. Republicans, who oppose Obama’s domestic agenda and are urging him to grant U.S. military requests for as many as 40,000 additional troops in Afghanistan, said the choice was based more on popularity than accomplishment. “It is unfortunate that the president’s star power has outshined tireless advocates who have made real achievements working towards peace and human rights,” Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele said in a statement. Political analysts said the award may have been an attempt by the Nobel committee to underscore its opposition to the policies of former President George W. Bush . The selection also is a way for the committee to boost Obama’s initiatives on nuclear-weapons reduction and climate change. ‘New Climate” In announcing the prize, Thorbjoern Jagland , chairman of the five-member Nobel committee , said Obama “created a new climate in international politics.” The committee “in particular looked at Obama’s vision and work toward a world without atomic weapons,” Jagland said. Some foreign leaders praised the decision. “It sets the seal on America’s return to the heart of all the world’s peoples,” French President Nicholas Sarkozy wrote to Obama. “Very few leaders, if at all, were able to change the mood of the entire world in such a short while with such profound impact,” said Israeli President Shimon Peres , co-winner of the 1994 prize. None of the analysts who follow Nobel prizes predicted the choice of Obama, who is just nine months into his term and became the third U.S. president to receive the award while in office. Roosevelt, Wilson President Theodore Roosevelt won the prize in 1906 and Woodrow Wilson in 1919. Former President Jimmy Carter won in 2002 and former Vice President Al Gore received it in 2007. Supporters and critics alike of the committee’s decision agreed that it was based more on Obama’s aspirations than his achievements. “He hasn’t made such a contribution,” said Nobel laureate and former Polish President Lech Walesa . “He’s proposing things, getting started, but he still has to do something.” Obama said he saw the award as an opportunity to move forward on his agenda. “I do not feel that I deserve to be in the company of so many of the transformative figures” who have won previously, he said. “I will accept this award as a call to action, a call for all nations to confront the common challenges of the 21st century.” Money to Charity White House spokesman Bill Burton said Obama will donate the 10 million Swedish kronor ($1.4 million) in prize money to charity. Obama is presiding over two wars and met yesterday with U.S. generals and his foreign policy advisers yesterday for three hours to discuss troop levels in Afghanistan. His administration also is negotiating with Iran and North Korea to curtail their nuclear programs. He was elected last year on a platform that included extracting U.S. forces from Iraq and closing the terror detention center at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. These and other positions contributed to changing the perception of the U.S. in much of the world. The Nobel committee alluded to the shift in tone. “Multilateral diplomacy is again central, with emphasis on the role the United Nations and other international institutions should play,” Jagland said. “Dialogue and negotiations are the preferred method to solve even the most difficult international conflicts.” Bush Critic The Nobel committee had been critical of the Bush administration. Upon awarding Carter the peace prize, Gunnar Berge , the Norwegian committee chairman, responded with “an unconditional yes” when asked if the award was meant as a rebuke of Bush. Bush declined to comment through his spokesman, David Sherzer. Obama moved quickly to fulfill his campaign pledge for greater U.S. support for the UN, a contrast with the Bush administration’s skeptical stance toward the organization. Last month, Obama became the first U.S. president to preside over a meeting of the UN Security Council, which unanimously adopted a U.S.-written resolution calling for progress toward his goal of nuclear-weapons disarmament. Obama’s administration also paid U.S. debts to the UN for the first time since 1999. Cairo Speech Obama has sought to improve U.S. relations with the Muslim world. In a June 4 speech at Cairo University, he pledged to “seek a new beginning” on this front that would end a “cycle of suspicion and discord.” Those questioning whether he deserved the prize included Fawzi Barhoum , a Hamas spokesman in the Gaza Strip. “There’s a lot more that Obama needs to achieve for peace and for the Palestinian people in order to receive this award,” Barhoum said in a telephone interview. The U.S., European Union and Israel brand Hamas, which controls Gaza, a terrorist organization. Other Arab politicians said they hoped the prize would strengthen Obama’s hand in Middle East peace negotiations. The award may “provide a stimulus for peace,” said Lebanon’s foreign minister, Fawzi Salloukh . The prize, along with honors for literature, physics, medicine and chemistry, was created by Swedish industrialist Alfred Nobel in his will and first awarded in 1901. Past laureates include Martin Luther King Jr ., Desmond Tutu , Mother Teresa and groups such as the International Committee of the Red Cross. Most Nominations There were 205 names submitted for this year’s prize, the highest number in the award’s history. The winner is selected by a committee of five people elected by the Norwegian parliament. The prizes for literature, chemistry, medicine and physics, are picked by the Stockholm-based Nobel Foundation . Obama said he learned of the award when White House spokesman Robert Gibbs woke him with the news at 6 a.m. yesterday. The president said that after he found out, his daughter, Malia, “walked in and said, ‘Daddy, you won the Nobel Peace Prize, and it is Bo’s birthday,’” a reference to the family dog. He said his other daughter, Sasha, added, “‘Plus, we have a three-day weekend coming up.’ So it’s good to have kids to keep things in perspective.” To contact the reporters on this story: Meera Bhatia in Oslo at mbhatia2@bloomberg.net ; Jeff Bliss in Washington at jbliss@bloomberg.net .

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