potential

The Potential for Fed QE Steals the Spotlight from a Week of Major Event Risk

November 1, 2010

The Potential for Fed QE Steals the Spotlight from a Week of Major Event Risk

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The Potential for Fed QE Steals the Spotlight from a Week of Major Event Risk

November 1, 2010

The Potential for Fed QE Steals the Spotlight from a Week of Major Event Risk

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Video: Mikos Says Pot Legalization May Not Raise Expected Funds

October 29, 2010

Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) — Robert Mikos, a law professor at Vanderbilt University, discusses the potential revenue implications if California legalizes marijuana. Mikos speaks from Nashville, Tennessee, with Lisa Murphy on Bloomberg Television’s “Fast Forward.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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European Stocks Closed Mixed as Investors Question Potential QE Success

October 29, 2010

European Stocks Closed Mixed as Investors Question Potential QE Success

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Richard Barrington: Foreclosure Documentation Scandal Speaks Volumes About the Mechanics of the Mortgage Mess

October 27, 2010

Current mortgage rates are at an all-time low, but if you are wondering why this hasn’t provided the desired support for the housing market, look no further than the foreclosure documentation scandal that has recently rocked some prominent banks. Recent revelations about faulty foreclosure documentation provide a window into the reality of how banks operate — and the view isn’t pretty. The foreclosure documentation scandal — what it says about banks Bank officials are supposed to personally verify the information on foreclosure documents before signing off on them. It turns out, though, that when faced with an overwhelming volume of foreclosures, some bank officials signed off on the documents automatically, without reviewing them — a practice that has become known as “robo-signing.” Does this mean that the epidemic of foreclosures over the past couple years need not have occurred — that it was just a banking error? Unfortunately, no. The likely outcome is that the vast majority of foreclosures that were robo-signed would have gone through anyway had they been properly reviewed. What this does confirm is two things about the way some banks responded to the flood of foreclosures: Besides the financial losses of loan defaults, the mortgage crisis saddled banks with a paralyzing bureaucratic burden. At a time when banks were cutting back on mortgage staff, mortgage departments were trying to process an avalanche of paperwork. Some cut corners as a result. Banks were tone-deaf about how to handle the crisis. If they couldn’t keep up with the pace of foreclosures anyway, banks could have gotten some public relations benefit at no cost to themselves by extending a grace period to troubled home owners. This would have helped mortgage departments catch up on foreclosure paperwork, and might even have allowed some home owners to turn things around. Muting the impact of current mortgage rates What happened instead has muted the potential benefit of current mortgage rates . Houses have been precipitously dumped on the market via foreclosures, and overwhelmed mortgage departments have been slow to write new loans. To the extent this has prolonged the housing slump, banks may be victims of their own bureaucracy. The original article can be found at MoneyRates.com: Foreclosure Documentation Scandal Speaks Volumes About the Mechanics of the Mortgage Mess

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Video: Nomura’s Janjuah Says Global Asset Bubble Is `Building’: Video

October 27, 2010

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) — Bob Janjuah, co-head of cross-asset allocation strategy at Nomura International Plc, discusses the outlook for the global economy. Janjuah, speaking with Erik Schatzker on Bloomberg Television’s “InsideTrack,” also talks about the potential impact of further quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve on the U.S. economy, emerging-market valuations and expectations for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: UBS’s Ryan Sees Temporary Extension of Bush-Era Tax Cuts: Video

October 21, 2010

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) — Mike Ryan, chief investment officer at UBS Wealth Management Americas, discusses the implications of the mid-term congressional elections for the U.S. economy and the potential impact of an extension of Bush-era tax cuts on financial markets. Ryan speaks with Margaret Brennan on Bloomberg Television’s “InBusiness.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Florida Election Burdened With Growing Foreclosures: Video

October 21, 2010

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) — Bloomberg’s Lizzie O’Leary reports on the increasing number of home foreclosures in Florida and the potential impact on midterm elections. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Miller Says Foreclosure Woes `Unquantifiable’ for Banks: Video

October 19, 2010

Oct. 19 (Bloomberg) — Paul Miller, an analyst at FBR Capital Markets, discusses Bank of America Corp.’s $7.3 billion third-quarter loss reported today and the potential impact of foreclosures on the company. Miller speaks from Arlington, Virginia, with Betty Liu on Bloomberg Television’s “In the Loop.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Martha A. Duggan: The Case for a Federal ‘Green Bank’

October 14, 2010

Conventional wisdom says that it will be exceedingly difficult for the United States Congress to pass energy legislation in its next session. For those who are waiting on signals that demonstrate our government’s willingness to incentivize investments in clean energy, this has been a depressing period. But while I understand the frustration expressed from nearly every faction of the energy sector, I am optimistic about the potential to capitalize on this seemingly-lost opportunity in the next Congress. In the past several weeks there has been a notable shift in media coverage of the politics of energy reform. What began as a message of shock and despair, has now turned to one of acceptance and genuine desire to start with a clean slate, and try once more for an improved, cleaner, and more efficient energy economy. The recent coverage of the Coalition for Green Capital (CGC), a non-profit organization based in Washington, DC, exemplifies this shift. As a member of its Board of Directors I appreciate the media coverage of the CGC’s positive efforts to produce a road map for the clean energy future of the United States. The New York Times article, ” A Climate Proposal Beyond Cap and Trade “, by David Leonhardt, describes the view of a prominent environmental economist who “should be despondent over Washington’s failure to pass a climate bill.” However, according to Leonhardt, MIT Professor Michael Greenstone, is not despondent. Rather, “he thinks the benefits of the bills that died in the Senate — which would have raised the cost of carbon emissions, through a system known as cap and trade — were sometimes exaggerated.” Leonhardt notes that after all the necessary compromises had been made the bills would not have raised the price of carbon enough to have any meaningful impact, and would also have done little to address the increasing emissions from the developing world. Leonhardt goes on to recognize Reed Hundt, CEO of the Coalition for Green Capital, and the Coalition’s efforts over the past two years to create a federal financing entity that would make clean energy cost competitive with carbon intensive energy. The New York Times is not alone in recognizing the value in creating such an entity. A recent article by HuffPost’s Dan Froomkin titled ” A Convenient Truth: Gearing up for Climate Change Could Supercharge the Job Market “, also focuses on a silver lining in the dark cloud over the clean energy sector and reinforces the need for a clean energy economy as envisioned by the Coalition for Green Capital. Froomkin writes: Could one major crisis be solved by solving another? If we’re talking about the nation’s desperately poor job market on the one hand, and the dire threat of climate change on the other, then the answer is: Quite possibly, yes. The solution to both would be an enormous investment in green technology and green jobs – creating a “clean energy economy” while reducing carbon emissions; putting millions of Americans back to work while increasing our energy independence; rebuilding our manufacturing base while saving consumers money on their energy bills; and saving the planet. It certainly sounds a heck of a lot cheerier than the alternative. These media outlets have called attention to the fact that reflecting the true cost of clean energy is, and will continue to be, unpopular — a completely logical fact given the current state of our economy. This means that the time is now for the creation of a federal clean energy financing institution (a “Green Bank”) which would lower the cost of clean energy. We do not need to take the unpopular route of making carbon-intensive energy more expensive. Instead we can make clean energy sources more affordable. The energy sector has huge potential for new investment and widespread expansion, and this potential can only be realized if this sector is provided with the proper incentives. On November 16th, the Coalition for Green Capital will be holding a public conference in Washington, DC entitled “The Future of Energy Reform.” We will lay out our Coalition’s road map for a clean energy future in the US. I encourage anyone interested to visit our website for further information: CoalitionForGreenCapital.com , or to reach out via email to sarahdavidson635@gmail.com

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Dollar at Risk as All Eyes Turn to FOMC Minutes To Gauge QE Potential

October 12, 2010

Dollar at Risk as All Eyes Turn to FOMC Minutes To Gauge QE Potential

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Angela Haines: How to Invest in Life Sciences

October 5, 2010

No area of investing has greater potential risks — or greater pay-offs — than companies in the life sciences sector, especially if you consider their potential benefits to society. Who doesn’t want to contribute to a cure for Parkinson’s or Alzheimer’s disease or even to the development of a “marker” to help in the diagnosis of a disease? It’s often a hugely personal decision for investors whose interest may be peaked because a family member or friend has a particular disease. But investors have to be prepared to understand what makes life sciences companies different from other investments. And they need to know what questions to ask. In a recent presentation for angel investors at a Golden Seeds forum, Anne Shehab, who holds a PhD in Chemical Engineering as well an MBA, and has filled strategic leadership posts at DuPont, Biogen, Arthur Little, and Valeritas suggests three distinguishing industry features: it’s a highly regulated industry worldwide; the value chain has an imbalanced power structure, which gives more control to the payers (insurance companies, for example) than to the ultimate beneficiary, the patient. It’s also an industry in transition in terms of delivery systems, technology, diseases in the spotlight and regulations, especially since the recent health reform act passed. So what’s an investor to do? First, understand that regulation and pathways differ substantially for drugs, devices and diagnostics. What Anne Shehab suggests is to review the impact of the company on each link in the value chain. Here are some considerations: • Hospitals are continuously challenged to allocate their scarce resources between patient care and technology. They need a good reason to switch from existing practices: new technology must not only improve patient care, but also be cost-effective. • Doctors are reimbursed based on set codes set by insurance companies or Medicare. So, as well as improving patient care, new technology or drugs have to help them make money by saving time, moving reimbursement to higher paying codes, increasing patient recruitment, or providing access to new group of patients. • Payers are also increasingly demanding cost effectiveness data before new products are reimbursed. Start-ups must collect this data during clinical trials if possible. For devices, getting reimbursement codes takes a long time, though sometimes it’s possible to make use of existing codes. This issue applies to international health care systems too. Start-ups should develop not just a US-based strategy, but also European and Asian strategies too. • A good sales rep or distributor wants to maintain and grow the use of leading brands and technology and will try to ward off low-cost competitors. To do this, they often become partners with MD’s and even assist in surgeries which use the devices they sell. Thus, a start- up is fighting a Goliath! Good investors always focus on exit strategies. Assuming the company has a quality team, a strong competitive position, patent-protected technology and demonstrated development experience, investors must also look for potential pre-launch milestones that demonstrate the company’s potential for an early exit. For example, for new drugs in pre-clinical development, investors should look for strong, tightly-linked animal data in models that can reliably predict human outcomes. Manufacturing processes should fit with existing commercial systems. For new medical devices, look for clinical studies demonstrating efficacy and proof of market acceptance with early revenue streams, and, ideally, profits! Diagnostic products require early revenues too, along with clinical studies demonstrating efficacy and cost-effectiveness, and compatibility with current lab systems. Finally investors should never hesitate to ask hard questions of life science entrepreneurs: • How will you demonstrate efficacy claims to FDA? • What type of clinical data will convince end users (including practicing physicians) to adopt the product?. • How do you plan to set pricing? Have you developed pricing scenarios based on different levels of product performance expectations? • Can you launch your product under current reimbursement codes? What data will payers want to see before developing a new code? • What’s the launch strategy for outside the US? • How will MD’s incorporate your drug or product into their current treatment modes? How will this product expand their business? • What is the distribution plan? What type of marketing partnerships might help accelerate your growth? • What milestones will offer proof of viability? What’s the likely timeline to exit? • Who are the potential exit partners, and why is your business compelling to them? One longtime diagnostics veteran, Marie Wesselhoft, who recently launched a company, MSDx Inc., which commercializes biomarkers for monitoring therapeutic effectiveness in patients with multiple sclerosis, is experiencing the challenges of a life science start-up. Her first step was to secure patents to protect her technology; the next hurdle is to address the regulatory process, both of which require hiring external expertise. But in the end, Wesselhoft observes, “life science investors are not like other investors. You have to be o.k. with a long term exits because the process takes time. But when you see a company that is going to produce a product that makes a difference at an attractive profit, you don’t look back. You know it’s worth all the trials. For me, it’s a mission and a passion with a hugely significant social goal — the health of the society.” And investors have to share that same drive, passion and patience!

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Video: Marshall Says Selection of Apotheker Is Positive for HP: Video

October 1, 2010

Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) — Brian Marshall, an analyst with Gleacher & Co. in San Francisco, talks about Hewlett-Packard Co.’s new chief executive officer Leo Apotheker and his potential impact on the company. Marshall speaks with Jon Erlichman on Bloomberg Television’s “InsideTrack.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Researchers Test Sound to Break Silence of Electric Cars

October 1, 2010

Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) — Bloomberg’s Louise Beale reports on the production of electric cars and the potential safety hazards posed to pedestrians.

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Video: Acampora Sees `Majority’ of Bad News Priced in Stocks: Video

September 30, 2010

Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) — Ralph Acampora of Altaira Wealth Management, talks with Bloomberg’s Carol Massar and Matt Miller about the outlook for the U.S. stock market and the potential impact of the November elections on equities. (This is an excerpt of the full interview. Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Wallison Says AIG Exit Plan Not a Win for U.S. Taxpayers: Video

September 30, 2010

Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) — Peter Wallison, co-director of financial policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, discusses American International Group Inc.’s agreement with U.S. regulators to repay its bailout by converting the government’s holdings into common shares for sale. Wallison, speaking with Deirdre Bolton on Bloomberg Television’s “InBusiness,” also discusses the potential impact of Republican congressional victories in the midterm elections on the Dodd-Frank Act. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Unemployment Could Rise To 10.1 Percent In 2011, Economists Say

September 27, 2010

Even as the economy continues to grow, unemployment could rise over the next year to as high as 10.1 percent, according to a new paper by the San Francisco Fed (hat tip to the Wall Street Journal ). The paper’s authors, economists David Lang and Kevin Lansing, say that if the economic growth in the first half of 2011 is “at or below” the potential for growth, then unemployment will rise. And, they say, it’s looking like growth won’t meet its potential, which is estimated to be at least 2.1 percent annually for the next five years. Citing a rule called “Okun’s law,” the economists say that changes in the unemployment level generally correspond to changes in GDP, or economic output. If GDP growth remains lackluster, then unemployment could increase to 10.1 percent, from its current 9.6 percent. The National Bureau of Economic Research said last week that the recession ended in June 2009 , a technical demarcation that means the economy stopped shrinking and started growing. Indeed, according to data from the St. Louis Fed , the GDP bottomed out during that period and grew steadily over the next four quarters. Still, growth was modest. The seasonally adjusted annual growth rate for the GDP, according to St. Louis Fed data , was 0.9 percent in the second quarter of this year. Economists, such as Minneapolis Fed president Narayana Kocherlakota , have argued that the unemployment problem is “structural,” or that there is a “mismatch”: “Firms have jobs, but can’t find appropriate workers. The workers want to work, but can’t find appropriate jobs,” Kocherlakota said last month. “There are many possible sources of mismatch — geography, skills, demography — and they are probably all at work.” Others, though, such as Paul Krugman , have dismissed that theory as “foolish,” saying the problem is simply that companies don’t want to hire — that demand for labor is low. “Job openings have plunged in every major sector, while the number of workers forced into part-time employment in almost all industries has soared. Unemployment has surged in every major occupational category,” Krugman writes. The economic picture for most of the country remains bleak, as the net worth of American households and non-profits dropped in the second quarter of this year to a level not seen since the third quarter of 2009.

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Video: Rajadhyaksha Says Treasury Yields to Be `Range Bound’: Video

September 22, 2010

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) — Ajay Rajadhyaksha, managing director and head of U.S. fixed-income strategy at Barclays Capital Inc., talks with Bloomberg’s Julie Hyman about U.S. Treasuries and the potential impact of the November elections on the bond market. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Brynjolfsson Says Fed `Hands Tied’ Until After Election: Video

September 21, 2010

Sept. 21 (Bloomberg) — John Brynjolfsson, chief investment officer at Armored Wolf LLC, talks with Bloomberg’s Mark Crumpton and Julie Hyman about Federal Reserve monetary policy and the potential impact of today’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting on financial markets. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: David Kelly Sees Good Market Reaction if Fed Says Little: Video

September 21, 2010

Sept. 21 (Bloomberg) — David Kelly, chief market strategist for JPMorgan Funds, discusses the potential impact of today’s Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting on U.S. financial markets and his investment strategy. Kelly talks with Betty Liu, Sheila Dharmarajan and Jon Erlichman on Bloomberg Television’s “In the Loop.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Dean Maki Says Global Economy Growing at `Solid Rate’: Video

September 13, 2010

Sept. 13 (Bloomberg) — Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital, talks about prospects for the global and U.S. economies, and the potential economic effect if all tax cuts enacted under George W. Bush’s administration are not extended. Maki talks with Carol Massar and Matt Miller on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Houdulik Sees `Better Growth’ for AT&T Over Competitors: Video

September 13, 2010

Sept. 13 (Bloomberg) — John Hodulik, an analyst at UBS Securities LLC, talks with Bloomberg’s Julie Hyman about the potential impact of Apple Inc.’s iPhone sales on AT&T Inc.’s earnings. Hodulik also discusses the outlook for tablet computers and growth prospects for mobile broadband. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Dino Kos Discusses New Basel Capital Requirements: Video

September 13, 2010

Sept. 13 (Bloomberg) — Dino Kos, managing director at Portales Partners LLC, discusses the new capital requirements set forth by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and the potential impact on the global banking industry. Kos speaks with Margaret Brennan on Bloomberg Television’s “InBusiness.” (This is an excerpt of the full interview. Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Pimco’s Crescenzi Sees `Bumpy Road’ for Deleveraging: Video

September 13, 2010

Sept. 13 (Bloomberg) — Anthony Crescenzi, a strategist at Pacific Investment Management Co., discusses Basel bank capital requirements, the outlook for stocks and bonds, and the potential impact of the mid-term elections on markets. Crescenzi talks with Betty Liu on Bloomberg Television’s “In the Loop.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Aaron, Foster Discuss Obama Tax Policy, Stimulus: Video

September 8, 2010

Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) — Henry Aaron, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, and J.D. Foster, a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation, talk with Bloomberg’s Melissa Long about President Barack Obama’s tax policy and the potential impact of higher taxes on the economy. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Garmin GPS Recall: Everything You Need To Know About The Nuvi Recall

August 26, 2010

NEW YORK – Garmin Ltd. said Wednesday it is recalling roughly 1.3 million Nuvi GPS devices worldwide because their batteries have the potential to overheat and create a fire hazard. About 796,000 of the GPS units were sold in the U.S. Garmin said that certain batteries provided by a separate company have overheated in some Nuvi models. The company said it has identified fewer than 10 cases of overheating, none of which produced any property damage or injury. Garmin said the battery supplier has agreed to share the cost of replacing the battery packs and that the recall will not have a material affect on its financial results. According to Garmin , the defective Nuvi GPS include those with the following model numbers: 200W, 250W, 260W, and the Nuvi 7XX (where xx is a two-digit number). The Nuvi model number is located on the label on the back or bottom of the GPS device. It said owners should not attempt to remove or service the battery on their own, and asked that any affected unit be taken to a Garmin-authorized facility. Garmin shares fell by a penny to $26.54 in late morning trading. Online: Nuvi owners were directed to this address to see if their device has been recalled. http://www.garmin.com/nuvibatterypcbrecall

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Video: U.S. Stocks Advance Despite Housing, Durable Goods Data: Video

August 25, 2010

Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) — Bloomberg’s Courtney Donohoe reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average recovering from an early 102-point slide, as investors speculated that recent declines in equities overshot the potential damage from a slowdown in the economy. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Loretta Cross Sees `Flurry’ of M&A in Gulf Oil Industry: Video

August 25, 2010

Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) — Loretta Cross, managing partner for corporate advisory and restructuring services at Grant Thornton LLP, discusses the potential impact of the BP Plc Gulf of Mexico oil spill on mergers and acquisitions in the energy industry. Cross talks with Margaret Brennan on Bloomberg Television’s “InBusiness.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Marty Zwilling: Eight Questions Every Startup Hopes You Won’t Ask

August 24, 2010

If you really want to impress a startup founder as a potential employee, or you want to be a smart investor, you need to know the right questions to ask. These are the questions that get past the hype of a founder “vision to change the world,” and into the realm of real business strengths, weaknesses, and current health. Some founders try to deflect these questions by talking incessantly, so you often need to be calm, patient, and persistent to get the answers. My advice to founders out there is to not volunteer too much, but be open and honest in the face of direct questions like the following: What is your burn rate and runway today? These are investor slang terms referring to how fast money is being spent, with an implicit question of how long the startup can survive before break-even or another cash infusion is required. You need to know this as a future employee, since it probably gates how long your new job will last. If the runway is less than six months, with no new source signed, both you and the startup are at risk. How much “skin” is already in the game? The intent of this question is to determine the level of commitment of founders, both cash and “sweat equity,” and how much others have already invested into this plan. Implicit in the analysis of the answers is how much progress has been made for the investment, and how stable the business is now. What’s the total history of this company? Gaps in the history of a startup are big red flags, just like gaps in your resume. If the company was incorporated five years ago, and is still in early stages, with the same founding team, chances are slim that it will suddenly get back on track with you as an employee, or you as an investor. How well do the founders get along with each other, and with the team? The smartest people are often the most eccentric, so some conflict in the ranks is normal. Excessive conflict, lack of communication, or lack of mutual respect is indicative of a dysfunctional team, and eventual failure of the startup. You won’t get this answer from the founder, but it’s not hard to get it by talking to other team members. What’s in this deal for me? Investing in a startup, or joining a startup, is always a very big risk, so the potential return better be large. As an employee, you salary will likely be low, your job security low, so the job title better be large, and the stock options better be large. As an investor, look for an ROI that is 10x your initial investment, based on something more than a dream from the founder. What traction can be measured today? Who do you have as outside board members? The only true outside board or advisory members are not family members, not current investors, but are experienced entrepreneurs with deep knowledge and connections in the relevant business area. They should be asking to speak to you if you are a potential investor or a superstar hire. If you talk to them, they better know the answers to the previous questions. Who is a real customer that I can talk to? Real customers are ones who have paid full price for the product, have it installed and in use, and are still satisfied. Free trials don’t count, betas don’t count, and “excited about the potential” doesn’t count. If there are no customers yet, when will the product ship, and how many times has the date been set? How solid is the intellectual property? Provisional patents, or lawsuits pending, don’t add up to a strong sustainable competitive advantage. You need to know these things before you put your money on the table, or bet your career and your family’s future on this startup. Again, I’m not suggesting that you go on the attack to get answers to these questions. But don’t let management divert you with comments on your failure to understand “the vision and the big picture.” If you are a potential employee, it probably makes sense to get the job offer first before you tackle some of these, always staying calm and assertive. In the parlance of an investor, asking these questions and getting answers is the heart of that mysterious “due diligence” process. Now you know. If you are a potential employee, you need to do the same due diligence before you sign on. Every good founder will have done the same on you, before they make you an offer.

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Katherine Warman Kern: Innovation Is Relative

August 23, 2010

In John Kao’s Book, Innovation Nation , he says: “breakthrough technologies regularly set the stage for staggering waves of innovation.” In other words, he is establishing that new technology isn’t innovation. It simply creates the potential for innovation. This is a critical distinction. What are the factors that make the potential created by new technology realized? Alan Patrick , an author of the Big Potatoes: The London Manifesto for Innovation , provides a summary of the research he did on the pace of innovation : ” . . . I looked at . . . the history of innovation over the last 100 years, from 1909 to 2009. If I had a hypothesis before starting it would be that there was an accelerating pace of innovation. The results — so far — tell me that is not the case, and it is probably cyclical. In fact, one could argue that innovation in 1909, 1949 and 1969 was greater than 2009.” Alan told me that my Grandfather (1989-1990) probably experienced more “Future Shock” than I have. But while discussing this with my Grandfather’s daughter ( my “early-adopter” Mother who rightly says she has been much more likely to try new technology than her father ever did), I understood what John Kao meant when he said that “Probably, the most widely shared misconception about innovation is that it’s all about science and high tech.” My grandfather really didn’t have a reason to be motivated to use many of the new technologies which emerged in his lifetime. As a dentist, neither the telephone nor air flight were critical to expanding his revenue potential. He had plenty of business in his hometown to fill his calendar. No need for conference calls by telephone. All phone appointments were made through his assistant. In fact, he was never comfortable talking to me on the phone even when I was hundreds of miles away. He preferred letters. So he didn’t experience so much “Future Shock.” In fact, when interviewed by the local NBC affiliate on his 100th birthday and asked what the most important advancement in his time was, his answer — “The forward pass.” Why would he think allowing the forward pass in American football was the most important advancement in his time when automobiles, air flight, telephones, radio, television, film, etc. were introduced? Because football was his passion. The memories he cherished the most from his life were when he played football for his college team (picture scenes from the movie, Leatherheads ) and coaching football as a high school teacher before he went on to study to become a dentist. This implies that a factor that transforms a new technology into an innovation is the reason to use it. In other words, innovation is relative to the reason as much as the technology. This makes sense when you consider that people need a reason to be highly motivated to leave behind what is comfortable to discover new possibilities. What are the reasons that disrupt the ambiguity of the pros and cons of risking something new? In a previous post, I gave the example of turning a loss into a positive . In a subsequent post, I discuss the evidence that innovators and creators are playing it safe because the perceived risks are too high to explore possibilities with unknown outcomes. Next I will explore examples of reasons that have motivated people to “disrupt the ambiguity” created by new possibilities.

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Video: Gulley Sees Other Bidders, Higher Offers for Potash: Video

August 17, 2010

Aug. 17 (Bloomberg) — Mark Gulley, an analyst at Soleil Securities, talks about Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc.’s rejection of an unsolicited $39 billion takeover proposal from BHP Billiton Ltd. and the potential of additional bidders making offers for the world’s largest fertilizer producer. Gulley speaks with Erik Schatzker on Bloomberg Television’s InsideTrack.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Gulley Sees Other Bidders, Higher Offers for Potash: Video

August 17, 2010

Aug. 17 (Bloomberg) — Mark Gulley, an analyst at Soleil Securities, talks about Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc.’s rejection of an unsolicited $39 billion takeover proposal from BHP Billiton Ltd. and the potential of additional bidders making offers for the world’s largest fertilizer producer. Gulley speaks with Erik Schatzker on Bloomberg Television’s InsideTrack.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Gulley Sees Other Bidders, Higher Offers for Potash: Video

August 17, 2010

Aug. 17 (Bloomberg) — Mark Gulley, an analyst at Soleil Securities, talks about Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc.’s rejection of an unsolicited $39 billion takeover proposal from BHP Billiton Ltd. and the potential of additional bidders making offers for the world’s largest fertilizer producer. Gulley speaks with Erik Schatzker on Bloomberg Television’s InsideTrack.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Frezza Says Ending Bush Tax Cuts Will Cause a `Disaster’: Video

August 16, 2010

Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) — William Frezza, a partner at Adams Capital Management, talks with Bloomberg’s Julie Hyman about the potential economic impact of ending the tax cuts passed during the administration of President George W. Bush. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Argus’s Weiss Discusses Potential BP Oil Spill Costs: Video

August 13, 2010

Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) — Philip Weiss, an analyst at Argus Research, talks with Bloomberg’s Julie Hyman about BP Plc’s oil spill in Gulf of Mexico and the potential costs to the company. (This is an excerpt of the full interview. Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Scott Minerd Discusses July U.S. Jobs Report, Fed Policy: Video

August 6, 2010

Aug. 6 (Bloomberg) — Scott Minerd, chief investment officer at Guggenheim Partners, discusses the U.S. July employment report released today and the potential impact on Federal Reserve monetary policy. Companies in the U.S. added workers in July for a seventh straight month at a pace that suggests the labor-market recovery will be slow to take hold. Minerd talks with Scarlet Fu on Bloomberg Television’s “In the Loop With Betty Liu.” (This is an excerpt of the full interview. Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Firestein Says Replacing Hayward Won’t Change BP Image: Video

July 26, 2010

July 26 (Bloomberg) — Peter Firestein, a consultant at Global Strategic Inc. and author of the book “Crisis of Character: Building Corporate Reputation in the Age of Skepticism,” talks about the potential impact of BP Plc’s possible removal of Chief Executive Officer Tony Hayward on the company’s image and the qualifications of Robert Dudley, the director of BP’s oil spill response unit. He speaks with Margaret Brennan on Bloomberg Television’s “InBusiness.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Gheit Says Appointing Dudley as BP CEO Would Make Sense: Video

July 26, 2010

July 26 (Bloomberg) — Fadel Gheit, managing director of oil and gas research at Oppenheimer & Co., talks about the possibility that Tony Hayward will be replaced by Robert Dudley as chief executive at BP Plc. Gheit, talking with Carol Massar on Bloomberg Television’s “In the Loop,” also comments on the potential costs the company faces from the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. (This is an excerpt of the full interview. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Unemployment: Report Says Jobs Hole Could Persist For A Decade (CHART)

July 20, 2010

The U.S. Senate’s epic struggle just to reauthorize unemployment benefits for the long-term jobless suggests that policymakers in Washington fundamentally don’t understand the jobs hole we’re in, according to a team of trained economists. The progressive Center for Economic and Policy Research reports that it could take an entire decade for the national unemployment rate to come down to pre-recession levels. “Between December 2007 — the official first month of the recession — and December 2009, the U.S. economy lost more than eight million jobs,” write CEPR’s John Schmitt and Tessa Conroy. “Even if the economy creates jobs from now on at a pace equal to the fastest four years of the early 2000s expansion, we will not return to the December 2007 level of employment until March 2014. “And, by the time we return to the number of jobs we had in December 2007, population growth will have increased the potential labor force by about 6.5 million jobs. If job growth matched the fastest four years in the most recent economic expansion, the economy would not catch up to the expanded labor force until April 2021.” Here’s a dramatic chart from CEPR showing the total number of jobs lost since the recession began: Click HERE to see even more horrifying charts.

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Video: Wieting Sees Most Companies Beating 1st-Qtr Earnings: Video

July 12, 2010

July 12 (Bloomberg) — Steven Wieting, managing director of economic and market analysis at Citigroup Global Markets Inc., talks about the outlook for second-quarter corporate earnings and the potential implications of tax rate increases in 2011. Wieting speaks with Margaret Brennan on Bloomberg Television’s “InBusiness.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: LeBron Chooses Heat, Knicks Miss Revenue Opportunity: Video

July 9, 2010

July 9 (Bloomberg) — Two-time National Basketball Association Most Valuable Player LeBron James selected the Miami Heat as his new team, spurning his former team the Cleveland Cavaliers, as well as the New York Knicks, who tried to woo the free agent. Bloomberg’s Jon Erlichman reports on the potential impact of James’s decision on the Knicks’ revenue. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Barbary Says BP May Interest Sovereign Wealth Funds: Video

July 8, 2010

July 8 (Bloomberg) — Victoria Barbary, senior analyst at Monitor Group, talks about the potential attraction of BP Plc to sovereign wealth funds. Barbary talks with Betty Liu on Bloomberg Television’s “In the Loop.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: SVM’s McLean Sees BP Changing Chairman First, Then CEO: Video

July 6, 2010

July 6 (Bloomberg) — Colin McLean, managing director at SVM Asset Management Ltd., talks about the potential for leadership change at BP Plc as the company copes with the Gulf of Mexico oil leak. McLean, speaking with Erik Schatzker on Bloomberg Television’s “InsideTrack,” also discusses BP’s cash position. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Liddell Says Financial Bill Is `Good Step Forward’: Video

July 2, 2010

July 2 (Bloomberg) — Roger Liddell, chief executive officer of LCH.Clearnet Group Ltd., discusses the potential impact of U.S. financial-regulatory overhaul legislation on the over-the-counter derivatives market. Liddell talks with Deirdre Bolton on Bloomberg Television’s “InsideTrack.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Video: Hodulik Says All Carriers May Sell IPhone by Year-End: Video

June 30, 2010

June 30 (Bloomberg) — John Hodulik, an analyst at UBS Securities LLC, talks about the outlook for AT&T Inc. losing exclusive rights to carry Apple Inc.’s iPhone and the potential impact on the wireless industry. Hodulik talks with Margaret Brennan on Bloomberg Television’s “InBusiness.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Crude Oil May Become Rangebound, Gold Has Potential Key Reversal

June 22, 2010

Crude Oil May Become Rangebound, Gold Has Potential Key Reversal

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Leo W. Gerard: American Wind Turbines Sound Like Freedom

June 18, 2010

The sound that American wind turbines produce as their giant, breeze-propelled blades whip around is a distinctive: Neh-neh-neh-neh-neh-neh . The anticipation is that those energy-generating, whirling arms would create a whooshing sound. And maybe they do in some countries. But here, in America, they echo the almost melodic taunt of a schoolyard victor — Neh-neh-neh-neh-neh-neh: You can’t get me . That’s because American wind turbines are the manifestation of freedom from foreign oil. The more American wind turbines, the fewer barrels of oil America must import to meet its energy needs. And American-built wind turbines help propel the nation out of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression by generating good-paying American jobs. President Obama talked about the ugly results of the nation’s refusal to solve its dependency problem – its guzzling of 20 percent of the world’s oil while controlling less than two percent of the world’s reserves. America’s combination of oil addiction and lack of adequate oil resources enslaves the nation to foreign sources, often foreign sources hostile to America. A generation ago, former President Jimmy Carter warned of the consequences of this abusive relationship as Iran held 52 Americans hostages and long lines formed at gasoline stations during a season of shortages. Carter installed on the White House roof a symbol of the solution — solar panels. His successor there, Ronald Reagan, pulled them down. And the nation went on its merry way forgetting the once-empty gasoline stations and ignoring its ever-increasing foreign dependency – even as the Exxon Valdez mucked Prince William Sound two months after Reagan left office. Here’s what Obama said about that wasted opportunity: “And for decades, we have failed to act with the sense of urgency that this challenge requires. Time and again, the path forward has been blocked – not only by oil industry lobbyists, but also by a lack of political courage and candor. The consequences of our inaction are now in plain sight. Countries like China are investing in clean energy jobs and industries that should be right here in America. Each day, we send nearly $1 billion of our wealth to foreign countries for their oil. And today, as we look to the Gulf, we see an entire way of life being threatened by a menacing cloud of black crude.” The explosion of the Deep Water Horizon oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico, the deaths of 11 workers, the uncontrolled gushing of more than 50,000 barrels of oil a day into the sea, and the mucking of brown pelicans and four states’ coastlines have given Obama the ability to take up Carter’s righteous clean energy campaign. And Obama accepted the challenge: “The tragedy unfolding on our coast is the most painful and powerful reminder yet that the time to embrace a clean energy future is now. Now is the moment for this generation to embark on a national mission to unleash America’s innovation and seize control of our own destiny.” The president noted that wind turbines are being built in retrofitted factories that were once abandoned right here in America. That happened in Pennsylvania. The wind turbine manufacturer Gamesa converted defunct mills into centers for wind turbine construction. And it cooperated with the United Steelworkers (USW) to provide good-paying union jobs. That is the potential President Obama sees – independence from foreign sources and resurgence of America’s economy. It is the potential that the USW and the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) pictured when they agreed earlier this month to work together to accelerate development and deployment of wind energy production in the U.S. Like the Steelworkers, the national trade association of America’s wind industry believes the U.S. must move toward renewable energy sources and must construct them itself. U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio explained it simply when the USW and AWEA announced their partnership: “We can’t replace our dependence on foreign oil with a dependence on Chinese-made wind turbines. It’s critical that American manufacturers have the resources to develop and deploy wind energy components. Clean energy will help America regain its leadership in manufacturing. We need to ensure American workers and manufacturers are building the clean energy components that will be used around the world.” Obama called on Americans to “seriously tackle our addiction to fossil fuels.” But like any rehab program, success won’t come easily. Oil companies will continue to lobby against it. Swayed by their money, some politicians will oppose the legislation essential to encourage it. But symbolic solar panels must remain on the White House roof this time. Renewable energy, as Obama said, enables America to shape its own destiny The President urged the nation to free itself from its oil dependency now: “As we recover from this recession, the transition to clean energy has the potential to grow our economy and create millions of jobs – but only if we accelerate that transition. Only if we seize the moment.” This is the time for wind turbines. For solar. For hydro. This is the moment to hear increasing numbers of rotor blades whipping up the sound of independence. Carpe diem.

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Video: SVM’s McLean Says BP Spill Costs May Reach $40 Billion: Video

June 17, 2010

June 17(Bloomberg) — Colin McLean, managing director at SVM Asset Management Ltd., talks about the outlook for BP Plc and the potential costs the company faces from the oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico. McLean talks with Deirdre Bolton on Bloomberg Television’s “InsideTrack.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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