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FOREX: Yen Falls on Rating Cut Threat, Dollar Sold Amid Easing EU Debt Fears

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FOREX: Yen Falls on Rating Cut Threat, Dollar Sold Amid Easing EU Debt Fears

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Standard & Poor’s announced on Monday that its credit rating for the United States was affirmed at AAA (the highest level possible) but that it was revising the outlook for this rating to “negative.” In this context, that was a warning “that we could lower our long-term rating on the U.S. within two years” (see Page 5 of the report). This news temporarily roiled equity markets around the world, although the bond markets largely shrugged it off.

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Simon Johnson: Behind The S&P Warning on the Deficit

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Euro Falls After Moody’s Further Downgrades Ireland

April 15, 2011

DUBLIN (Padraic Halpin) – Moody’s cut Ireland’s sovereign rating by two notches to the verge of junk status on Friday and kept its outlook on negative, pushing the euro lower and adding to renewed pressure on the euro zone’s weaker countries. The move sent Ireland’s borrowing costs up and cut short a rare spell of good news after the government said on Thursday it had passed a review of its economic progress by creditors and ratings agency Fitch upgraded its outlook. A soaring of Greek borrowing costs to new highs has turned up the heat on fellow strugglers Ireland and Portugal this week after Germany said for the first time that Athens may have to restructure its huge public debt. Moody’s official Dietmar Hornung told Reuters, however, that the chances of Ireland having to restructure any of its debt were very remote and said he expected Dublin’s debt-to-GDP ratio to level off at a “sustainable” 120 percent. An advisor to Greece’s Prime Minister said last week that its debt-to-GDP will jump to over 150 percent by the end of the year, and higher still by the end of 2012. However Moody’s said Ireland’s growing debt would be high by EU standards and that weak economic growth prospects together with the expected decline of the government’s financial strength threatened its ability to manage the burden. “Should the intended fiscal consolidation goals not be met, a further rating downgrade would likely follow,” Moody’s said. “Moreover, a further deterioration in the country’s economic outlook would also exert downward pressure on the rating.” Moody’s said the downgrade to BAA3 from BAA1 — which puts its rating two notches below both Fitch and Standard and Poor’s — was also due to uncertainty around solvency tests required by the European Stabilization Mechanism (ESM) It said the country may need to take further austerity measures to meet its fiscal goals and that its financial position may suffer as a result of rises in European Central Bank interest rates. One in ten Irish mortgages were either in arrears or restructured at the end of 2010 and more customers are set to fall into difficulty after the ECB raised its base rate earlier this month. The ratings cut pushed the euro to a session low against the dollar, falling as low as $1.4451, down 0.2 percent on the day, and moving further away from its 15-month high around $1.4521 hit earlier this week. The Irish/German 5-year government bond yield spread was 20 basis points wider on the day at 724 bps. The equivalent 10-year spreads, which narrowed by around 100 basis points after an end-March fresh round of bank stress tests, were little changed on the day. ALL ABOUT GROWTH Ireland has been struggling to convince markets its spluttering economy can grow fast enough to sustain its debt burden since the International Monetary Fund and European Union arranged an 85 billion euros bailout last year. The IMF this week slashed its forecast for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to 0.5 percent from 0.9 percent previously and said it did not expect Ireland to meet the target of getting its budget deficit under an EU limit of three percent by 2015. The government, which will get a full update on its progress on the IMF/EU deal later on Friday, is updating its forecasts but currently predicts 1.7 percent growth this year to give it a budget deficit of 9.4 percent. Analysts said the Irish story would now be all about growth. “I still think we will maintain investment grade, but at the same time the risks around achieving debt sustainability are to the downside,” said Dermot O’Leary, chief economist at Goodbody Stockbrokers. “It’s absolutely all about growth now. I think we’ve parked the banking issue which is a positive and you can get that from the readings of the ratings agencies views.” On a positive note, Moody’s said that upward pressures could also develop on Ireland’s rating and that the country’s long-term potential growth prospects remain higher than those of many other advanced nations. (Editing by Patrick Graham) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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The 10 Major Conclusions Of The Financial Crisis Commission

January 27, 2011

In a report released today, the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission found that “reckless” Wall Street firms, an abundance of cheap credit and “weak” federal regulators caused the crisis. “This financial crisis could have been avoided. Let us be clear,” chairman Phil Angelides said at the Washington press conference marking the official release of the report. “The record is replete with evidence of failures. None of what happened was an act of God.” Former California treasurer Angelides confirmed that the bipartisan panel appointed by Congress to investigate the financial crisis concluded that several financial industry figures appear to have broken the law and has referred multiple cases to state or federal authorities for potential prosecution. The report also revealed that Goldman Sachs collected $2.9 billion from the American International Group as payout on a speculative trade it placed for the benefit of its own account, receiving the bulk of those funds after AIG received an enormous taxpayer rescue, according to the FCIC. The 662-page report, available online , and as a book, offers 10 main conclusions: “This financial crisis was avoidable.” “Despite the expressed view of many on Wall Street and in Washington that the crisis could not have been foreseen or avoided, there were warning signs,” the report reads.”The tragedy was that they were ignored or discounted.” “Widespread failures in financial regulation and supervision proved devastating to the stability of the nation’s financial markets.” “Securities and Exchange Commission could have required more capital and halted risky practices at the big investment banks. It did not,” the report reads. “The Federal Reserve Bank of New York and other regulators could have clamped down on Citigroup’s excesses in the run-up to the crisis. They did not. Policy makers and regulators could have stopped the runaway mortgage securitization train. They did not. “Dramatic failures of corporate governance and risk management at many systemically important financial institutions were a key cause of this crisis.” Financial institutions acted recklessly and depended too heavily on short term loans, the inquiry found. “Compensation systems–designed in an environment of cheap money, intense competition, and light regulation–too often rewarded the quick deal, the short-term gain–without proper consideration of long-term consequences,” it reads. “A combination of excessive borrowing, risky investments, and lack of transparency put the financial system on a collision course with crisis.” The inquiry found that in the years leading up to the crisis, American households, and institutions, borrowed too much and saved too little. “When the housing and mortgage markets cratered, the lack of transparency, the extraordinary debt loads, the short-term loans, and the risky assets all came home to roost. What resulted was panic,” the report reads. “We had reaped what we had sown.” “The government was ill prepared for the crisis, and its inconsistent response added to the uncertainty and panic in the financial markets.” Key government agencies, the Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve Board, and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York were behind the curve, the report concluded. “They were hampered because they did not have a clear grasp of the financial system they were charged with overseeing, particularly as it had evolved in the years leading up to the crisis.” “There was a systemic breakdown in accountability and ethics.” Many borrowers lied about being able to pay mortgages, lenders made loans they knew borrowers couldn’t afford, the report said. “Countrywide executives recognized that many of the loans they were originating could result in ‘catastrophic consequences.’ Less than a year later, they noted that certain high-risk loans they were making could result not only in foreclosures but also in ‘financial and reputational catastrophe’ for the firm. But they did not stop.” “Collapsing mortgage-lending standards and the mortgage securitization pipeline lit and spread the flame of contagion and crisis.” The report found irresponsible lending was prevalent, and there were warnings, but “the Federal Reserve neglected its mission,” and mortgage lenders passed the risk along. “From the speculators who flipped houses to the mortgage brokers who scouted the loans, to the lenders who issued the mortgages, to the financial firms that created the mortgage-backed securities, collateralized debt obligations… no one in this pipeline of toxic mortgages had enough skin in the game.” “Over-the-counter derivatives contributed significantly to this crisis…” Speculating on devices like collateralized debt obligations fanned the flames, with everyone from farmers to corporations to investors betting on prices and loan defaults. When the housing bubble popped, these were at the center of the fallout. “The failures of credit rating agencies were essential cogs in the wheel of financial destruction…” But, the report found, those bets wouldn’t have been possible without the seal of approval from ratings agencies. “This crisis could not have happened without the rating agencies. Their ratings helped the market soar and their down- grades through 2007 and 2008 wreaked havoc across markets and firms,” the report reads.

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Japan Rating Cut to AA- by S&P; Yen Drops Across the Board

January 27, 2011

Japan Rating Cut to AA- by S&P; Yen Drops Across the Board

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China Weekly: S&P Lifts China’s Rating; Steel Shares Likely to Remain Weak

December 20, 2010

China Weekly: S&P Lifts China’s Rating; Steel Shares Likely to Remain Weak

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Moody’s May Downgrade Spains Debt

December 15, 2010

MADRID — Ratings agency Moody’s on Wednesday warned it may downgrade Spain’s debt because the government is vulnerable to a borrowing crunch next year, when the recapitalization of weak banks could prove more costly than expected for public finances. The agency, which lowered Spain’s rating from Aaa to Aa1 in September, says it will review the rating again because of high financing needs in 2011 but does not expect the country to need a bailout. The government’s bond yields have risen to high levels in recent weeks amid Europe-wide debt market turmoil. Investors fear that countries like Spain or Portugal will have trouble handling heavy debt loads and require emergency help, like Greece or Ireland. Spain is considered a risk because it is still struggling to emerge from nearly two years of recession, has the highest unemployment rate in the eurozone and a swollen deficit. Madrid’s main stock index fell nearly 2 percent in morning trading after the report. Pressure also increased on Spain’s 10-year bonds, with yields up 0.07 percentage points to 5.6 percent. That puts the yield 2.6 percentage points higher than the benchmark German 10-year bond – still below the euro-era record difference of 3.05 percentage points hit earlier this month. The government has continually denied it will need aid, stressing reforms and austerity measures will bring it through the crisis. Commenting on the report in Parliament, Finance Minister Elena Salgado said she “hopes that before three months we can provide sufficient arguments to make that negative prospect positive.” Rating agencies normally conclude their reviews within three months. In its statement Wednesday, Moody’s Investors Service said it “does not believe that Spain’s solvency is under threat,” and does not expect the government will have to ask for European Union help. “However, Spain’s substantial funding requirements, not only for the sovereign but also for the regional governments and the banks, make the country susceptible to further episodes of funding stress. This is one of the drivers behind the review for possible downgrade,” said Kathrin Muehlbronner, the agency’s lead analyst for Spain. Moody’s stressed “that it continues to view Spain as a much stronger credit than other stressed Euro zone countries. This is reflected in the significantly higher rating for the Spanish sovereign. Moody’s review will therefore most likely conclude that Spain’s rating will remain in the Aa range.” The statement came two days after the ratings agency said it was keeping a negative outlook on Spanish banks because their capitalization, profitability and access to market funding are expected to remain weak amid Europe’s unresolved financial crisis. The agency expects the banks’ credit conditions to be difficult for at least 12 months. Spain’s real estate sector, the economy’s driving force for more than a decade, collapsed two years ago and many savings banks – or “cajas” – are now stuck with billions of euros in foreclosed property. Many of these banks are being forced to merge under a consolidation process scheduled to finish this month. Spain has also begun implementing austerity measures in a bid to slash a swollen deficit from 11.2 percent of GDP in 2009 to within the EU limit of 3 percent by 2013. The country’s third-quarter economic growth was flat after two quarters of weak growth, although it was up 0.2 percent year-on-year – the first such rise in seven quarters.

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Moody’s Warns On U.S. Credit Rating After Tax Cut Deal

December 13, 2010

NEW YORK – Moody’s warned on Monday that it could move a step closer to cutting the U.S. Aaa rating if President Barack Obama’s tax and unemployment benefit package becomes law. The plan agreed to by President Barack Obama and Republican leaders last week could push up debt levels, increasing the likelihood of a negative outlook on the United States rating in the coming two years, the ratings agency said. A negative outlook, if adopted, would make a rating cut more likely over the following 12-to-18 months. For the United States, a loss of the top Aaa rating, reduce the appeal of U.S. Treasuries, which currently rank as among the world’s safest investments. “From a credit perspective, the negative effects on government finance are likely to outweigh the positive effects of higher economic growth,” Moody’s analyst Steven Hess said in a report sent late on Sunday. After Obama announced his plan, Treasury prices fell sharply in volatile trade last week and yields have hit a six-month high, in part due to concerns over the effect the package will have on government debt levels. If the bill becomes law, it will “adversely affect the federal government budget deficit and debt level,” Moody’s said. On Monday, the Democratic-led U.S. Congress moved toward grudging approval of President Obama’s deal with Republicans to extend expiring tax cuts, even for the wealthiest Americans. Last week, Moody’s and Fitch Ratings both expressed concerns about the U.S.’s rating longer term, with Moody’s fearing the impact if the tax cuts become permanent. In a market obsessed with the euro sovereign debt crisis, the Moody’s note reminded foreign exchange investors about their worries of growing U.S. debt and was a factor pressuring the dollar on Monday. The cost of insuring U.S. government debt in the credit default swap market was little changed on Monday at around 41 basis points, or $41,000 per year to insure $10 million in debt for five years, according to Markit Intraday. NEGATIVE IMPACT A negative outlook would indicate that the rating may be more likely to be cut from the top Aaa rating over the following 12 to 18 months. The United States currently has a stable outlook, indicating a rating change is not anticipated over this time frame. Moody’s estimates the cost of the funding the proposed tax bill, along with unemployment benefits and other policy measures, may be between $700 and $900 billion, which will raise the ratio of government debt to GDP to 72 to 73 percent, depending on the effects on nominal economic growth. This means that the government’s debt relative to revenues will decline much more slowly over the coming two years, to just under 400 percent from 420 percent at the end of fiscal year 2010. “This is a very high ratio compared with both history and other highly rated sovereigns,” Moody’s said. (Reporting by Karen Brettell in New York and Walter Brandimarte in Sao Paulo; Editing by W Simon ) Copyright 2010 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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BP Defends ‘F’ Ratings On Alaska Oil Pipelines

November 5, 2010

ANCHORAGE, Alaska — Internal “F” ratings of pipeline sections operated by BP PLC in Alaska’s North Slope show the company’s corrosion monitoring program is succeeding, not failing, a company spokesman said Thursday. Spokesman Steve Rinehart was responding to a report by the independent investigative news organization ProPublica that said the rating means the pipeline walls are 80 percent corroded and could rupture. That’s not always the case, Rinehart said. Pipes with less corrosion but in such sensitive areas as high-pressure lines could also get that rating, which doesn’t always mean the line is unsafe or facing imminent failure, he said. “What it does mean is it prompts a higher priority repair plan,” Rinehart said. That could mean immediate repairs, taking a line out of service, or reducing pressure in the line pending a longer-term solution. ProPublica says it obtained an internal BP maintenance report generated in early October that noted at least 148 pipelines received the most critical “F” rating. But Rinehart said as of Wednesday, 151 locations – not entire pipes – had the rating among more than 1,600 miles of pipelines. “Most of these are small areas that are identified through a big and continuing inspection program,” he said. North Slope pipeline corrosion came under intense public scrutiny with two large oil spills in 2006. Both spills were traced to BP’s failure to regularly clean and inspect two of its pipelines over the course of several years. Rinehart said the spills reinforced the need to intensify the company’s corrosion efforts, which it began to do earlier in decade. BP ultimately agreed with federal prosecutors to pay $20 million in fines and restitution for the first spill, the largest ever on Prudhoe, the nation’s largest oil field. The spills also led BP to replace 16 miles of transit lines. Critics used the events as examples of the oil industry’s failure to properly maintain the North Slope’s aging infrastructure. Among problems they list are pipelines dotted with inadequate patches and gas-leak warning systems they call obsolete. Marc Kovac, a 33-year BP employee who works as a well-pad mechanic on the North Slope, said he is among several staffers who have gone to company managers with safety concerns including pipeline corrosion. “Management didn’t care,” he said. Kovac said BP takes too long to address “F”-rated pipelines. He believes the company should be more concerned about safety and less driven by cutting costs. “Once a piece of pipe, or an area in a piece of pipe or vessel, has become ‘F’ ranked, it means that it’s in trouble,” he said. BP says it spends millions annually on North Slope maintenance and upgrades. The current capital budget totals $850 million, according to Rinehart, who said he didn’t know how much was targeted for repairs and maintenance. This year, the company conducted more than 150,000 exterior pipeline inspections, Rinehart said. BP also ran 77,000 internal inspections, using a variety of tools, including “smart pigs,” tools sent through pipelines to assess their condition, he said. “We’ve got a very active and continuing corrosion-mitigation program,” Rinehart said. “And it’s been successful. By our markers, corrosion-related failures are coming down.”

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Richard (RJ) Eskow: Wall Street Noir: Moody’s "Double Agent" Ratings

September 28, 2010

What happened to Moody’s is what happens to every “agent” who thinks he can serve two masters. The sad thing is that it keeps happening, even though we’ve seen this movie before. Credit rating agencies are supposed to monitor debt that’s issued by financial institutions and governments. It’s their job to protect investors from purchasing financial instruments that are misleadingly packaged or are riskier than the buyer can afford. These “agencies” hold extraordinary power — to destroy companies, to make people fabulously rich, even to influence governments. The problem is they’re not “agencies” at all. They’re for-profit companies who have their palms outstretched to the big banks for revenue even as they’re “policing” the soundness of their portfolios. Consider the recent checkered past of Moody’s, which holds a 40% market share in the worldwide credit rating business. Allegations have been raised about its CEO’s stock trading, harassment of a whistle blower, and intentional deception of the public for its own financial gain. It got everything wrong when it came to rating debt, despite reports it should have known all along. How is Moody’s handling the public shame caused by its ignominious failures? By lecturing the government on how to handle the disaster its own ratings helped to create. The Moody’s File The SEC declined to file fraud charges against Moody’s last month, not because they thought the “agency” was innocent — the evidence showed otherwise — but because it said there was a jurisdictional problem. As the SEC’s report made clear, Moody’s knew a number of credit ratings had been incorrectly rated too favorably. But rather than face the public embarrassment of admitting its mistake, Moody’s let the public believe the ratings were accurate. Moody’s looked the other way as investors were placed at risk, twiddling its thumbs and whistling to itself like a crooked cop ignoring a robbery. To conceal its mistake, Moody’s s-l-o-w-l-y let the numbers climb back to where they should have been all along. As the SEC makes clear in its report, there is substantial evidence that fraudulent behavior occurred and that investors were misled as a result. The report also presents evidence which shows that Moody’s misled the SEC itself, which is a violation of law. In the latest scandal, a firm that analyzes home mortgages just testified that it told banks that the mortgages they were bundling were a mess , with more than one in four failing to meet even basic underwriting standards — and they kept on doing it anyway. They told the rating franchises, too . But, as the head of the analysis firm observed, “if any one of them would have adopted it, they would have lost market share.” He can’t help it if he’s lucky As if Moody’s reputation wasn’t battered enough, there’s the matter of Kevin Hall of McClatchy Newspapers as follows: “If you look at his major sales in 2007, 2009, 2010, they are all around price peaks and followed by large declines. The likelihood that this is just ‘lucky’ is very low — it appears he is using inside information to time his trades.” Hall and McClatchy had been on the Moody’s story like white on rice, as the saying goes. The headline McClatchy gave to Hall’s October 2009 story, ” How Moody’s Sold Its Ratings — And Sold Out Investors ,” shows how strongly his editors backed his work. Senate panels and the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission both began investigating Moody’s shortly thereafter, and the FCIC found it tough sledding. Both the FCIC and California Attorney General Jerry Brown found that Moody’s was dragging its feet on providing requested documents. The FCIC was forced to issue a subpoena, and Brown had to go to court to force compliance with a subpoena he had already issued. Revenue over research Moody’s drive to “always be selling” severely compromised its judgment, according to reports. As Hall reported last June , Moody’s executives described its former CEO as “getting in their face whenever they raised obstacles to rating a complex deal, often boasting that they weren’t the ones responsible for Moody’s surge in revenues.” “Agencies” like Moody’s don’t make money by generating accurate ratings. They make it by generating ratings that make the customer — the banks, funds, and insurance companies issuing these debts — look good. No wonder analysts were discouraged from raising red flags about risky deals. A review of emails and other documents generated by the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations provided more evidence of this pattern. As an internal PowerPoint showed, consultants who spoke with members of the group that rated the riskiest financial instruments found that they saw their roles as follows: Generating increased revenue. Increasing Market Share and/or Coverage Fostering good relationships with issuers and investors Delivering high quality ratings and research Just in case that didn’t make priorities clear enough, the consultants added: “When asked about how business objectives were translated into day-to-day work, most agreed that writing deals was paramount, while writing research and developing new products and services received less emphasis.” A “franchise,” not an agency That’s why the word “agency” is such a misnomer. It’s a word with multiple meanings, but in this case it suggests a quasi-government function. The FBI is an “agency.” The Environmental Protection Agency is an “agency.” Moody’s isn’t that kind of agency. You’d have to look to another definition , like “the capacity, condition or state of exerting power” or “an establishment engaged in doing business for another.” The analysts who placed “writing deals” above research aren’t “agents,” except for the high-stakes gamblers who pay their fees. Follow the money. McDaniel held a “town hall meeting” with employees as the economy was crashing around them, thanks in large part to the great ratings they and their colleagues had given to fraudulent products. He said “… my thinking is there’s a much greater concern about the franchise. Everyone in this room is a long-term investor (ed: presumably in Moody’s stock), for sure.” The raters all own stock in Moody’s and want “the franchise” to succeed. That’s not an agency. It’s a “franchise.” That’s why the company reportedly ” purg(ed) analysts and executives ” who warned that there was trouble coming. It’s why Moody’s and its competitors don’t want to be held liable for “recklessly” issuing bad information. It’s why they withheld their services at a crucial time because they didn’t want to responsible. Now an ex-employee is alleging they defamed him after he raised issues of fraud and inflated ratings internally, and then to investigators. Agencies don’t do that. Franchises do. Ending the rigged game Despite all the evidence, Moody’s is still treated as a credible player … and one that’s powerful enough to send a warning shot across the bow of the United States government . It threatened to downgrade the US government’s debt last March if more wasn’t done to reduce the government’s debt. That’s the kind of rigged game we’re facing: One of the biggest sources of the government’s debt is the economic collapse. That collapse was enabled in large measure by the bad ratings issuing by rating franchises like Moody’s. Now Moody’s wants to hamstring the government’s ability to repair the damage it helped create. And it might. They’re that powerful, and the system is that rigged. Imagine: Moody’s still holds enormous power because it can deny the government a AAA rating — the same rating it once freely gave to mortgage securities underwritten so badly that 28% of them were virtually worthless. It’s a classic film noir ending: The double agents, the cops on the take, they’re the ones who wind up having connections, the ones who seem to come out on top in the end. The Franken Amendment would slow down the profit-driven salesmanship of the ratings franchises. Good idea, but why stop there? Where are the prosecutions? And it’s time to consider shutting these groups down. You’ve seen this movie, too: everybody knows you can’t trust a double agent. _______________________________________________________________ Richard (RJ) Eskow, a consultant and writer (and former insurance/finance executive), is a Senior Fellow with the Campaign for America’s Future. This post was produced as part of the Curbing Wall Street project. Richard also blogs at A Night Light . He can be reached at “rjeskow@ourfuture.org.” Website: Eskow and Associates

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Bill Singer: Fired Analyst Loses Multi-Million Dollar Arbitration Against Former Employer

September 8, 2010

Rodman & Renshaw and other Claimants filed a FINRA Arbitration Statement of Claim (initially in October 2006 and thereafter as amended) against Respondent Matthew N. Murray. Among other claims, Claimants alleged defamation, tortious interference with business relations, breach of fiduciary duty, conversion, breach of contract, and prima facie tort, trademark infringement, and cybersquatting. In the Matter of the Arbitration Between Rodman & Renshaw, LLC, John Borer, Edward Rubin, Michael Vasinkevich, and Wesley K. Clark, Claimants , vs. Matthew N. Murray, Respondent (FINRA Arbitration 06-04643, August 26, 2010). The relief and damages sought by Claimants in the original Statement of Claim included: compensatory damages in an amount to be determined at trial, but at least $10,000,000.00; the recovery of Claimant’s costs and expenses of this proceeding, including reasonable attorneys’ fees; punitive damages in the sound discretion of the arbitrators but at least $15,000,000.00; an order enjoining Respondent from continuing to disseminate defamatory materials and information concerning Claimant and its principals and Chairman of its holding company; an order requiring that Respondent return to Claimant all documents and other assets belonging to Claimant, including Claimant’s proprietary and confidential contact list, and enjoining Murray from using any of those assets or materials; and granting such other and further relief as the arbitrators deem appropriate. In two additional Amended Statements of Claim, Claimants further sought an order pemnanently enjoying Respondent from: using the Rodman trademark and trade name, and any variations of the Rodman trademark and trade name, or any other mark confusingly similar to such trademark and trade name, or any other mark or variation of a mark belonging to Rodman or the Internet or in any other medium; creating or maintaining any website or the Internet using any of Rodman’s trademark and trade name; using any Claimant’s name or any variation of any Claimant’s name in a domain name in any manner likely to cause confusion by the public, including, without limitation, the following domain names: — generalclarkandrodman.com, — johnborer.com, — edwardrubin.com, — michaelvasinkevich.com, and — jayauslander.com; and using any Claimant’s name in any manner likely to induce the belief that any of the Respondent Websites is endorsed by any Claimant. Respondent Murray generally denied the allegations and asserted various affirmative defenses. Respondent Counterclaims In his Counterclaim, Respondent Murray asserted breach of contract and defamation and sought the following relief and damages: compensatory damages in an amount to be determined at trial, but at least $2,000,000.00; the recovery of Respondent’s costs and expenses of this proceeding, including reasonable attorneys’ fees; punitive damages in the sound discretion of the arbitrators but at least $2,000,000.00; expungement of all defematory statements from his Form U5; a declaration that all Claimants (except General Clark) improperly retaliated against him from attempting to exercise his independence as a research analyst by removing him from the research department and then terminating his employment; a declaration that all Claimants (except General Clark) defamed him by causing a defamatory statement to be published on his Form U5; a declaration that all Claimants defamed him by publishing statements that he had been fired for sound business reasons; a declaration that Rodman violated NASD Rule 2711 by firing him and removing him from the research department in retaliation for attempting to exercise his independence as a research analyst; a declaration that Rodman violated SEC Regulation AC when it refused to remove his name from a research report after he stated that he no longer believed that the contents of the report were true; a declaration that General Clark breached his fiduciary duties as Rodman’s Chairman by refusing to conduct an independent investigation into his allegations of improper retaliation against him and by covering up the misconduct that has occurred; a declaration that, by filing the District Court action and obtaining preliminary injunction against him, Claimants have waived their rights to arbitrate both the claims they asserted in this arbitration and his counterclaims in this arbitration; and granting such other and further relief as the arbitrators deem appropriate. Arbitration Panel Ruling The FINRA Arbitrators found Respondent Murray liable for and ordered him to pay to Rodman & Renshaw, LLC, compensatory damages in the amount of $10,700,000.00 plus interest at 9% per annum from August 9, 2006 until August 12, 2010. Respondent’s Counterclaim request for expungement were denied. Bill Singer’s Comment : According to press accounts, in 2005, Murray had recommended Halozyme Therapeutics, a biopharmaceutical company, when its shares were trading at $1.86, with a $2.88 price target. Rodman & Renshaw was part of a banking group that raised $17.5 million for the company in a public stock offering. After the publication of Murray’s buy recommendation, Halozyme rose over to over $3. Subsequent to Halozyme reaching his price target, Murray attempted to downgrade his recommendation. Thereafter, Rodman & Renshaw’s Director of Research sent an email to Murray that included a suggestion that the analyst “finesse his target price.” Although Rodman & Renshaw agreed in subsequent legal filings that the finesse suggestion was an awkward request, the firm characterized the language as little more than an attempt to improve the precision of the rating. Murray disputed that explanation and cited to more heavy-handed actions by the firm, which he claimed were intended to supress his independece. Murray noted that after Rodman & Renshaw denied his request for the downgrade, that on two occasions the firm refused his request to have his name removed from coverage of Halozyme. In February 2006, John J. Borer, III, President of Rodman & Renshaw Holding, LLC announced the appointment of General Wesley K. Clark (ret.) as Chairman of the Board and Head of the Advisory Board. Clark was a thirty-four year United States Army veteran, who rose to the rank of 4-star general and NATO Supreme Allied Commander. He was also a candidate for President of the United States in 2003. Rodman & Renshaw’s 2009 10-Q (May) states in part under Item 1. Legal Proceedings (see, at http://www.wikinvest.com/stock/Rodman_&_Renshaw_Capital_(RODM)/Legal_Proceedings ) [A]s a result of allegations by Mr. Murray that we terminated him in violation of NASD Rule 2711 (“Rule 2711″) and SEC Regulation AC (“Reg AC”) in retaliation for his desire to downgrade an issuer that he provided research coverage on, the Committee on Finance of the U.S. Senate (“SFC”) and the SEC commenced inquiries, the AG issued a subpoena and FINRA initiated an investigation. The SFC, by letter dated May 25, 2006 from its former chairman, Senator Charles E. Grassley (“Grassley”), requested that our Chairman make himself available for an interview with Grassley’s staff and respond to certain questions in connection with Murray’s termination. By letter of the same date, Grassley, along with Senator Max Baucus, who was at that time the ranking member of the SFC, wrote to Christopher Cox, then chairman of the SEC, asking the SEC to conduct a “comprehensive and thorough examination” into our termination of Murray. Both the letter to us and the letter to Cox reference possible violations of Rule 2711 and Reg AC. We responded to the letter from Grassley and our Chairman voluntarily appeared for an interview by Grassley’s staff in July 2006. The last written correspondence from Grassley’s offices to us with respect to this matter occurred in September 2006. Neither former chairman Grassley nor the SFC has contacted us since that date, and the SFC has not, to our knowledge, issued any subpoena in connection with its inquiry. By letter dated March 27, 2006, the SEC advised us that it was undertaking an inquiry of us and it requested that we produce documents in connection with that inquiry. Although the letter from the SEC does not specifically reference either Rule 2711 or Reg AC, the documents they requested and our counsel’s conversation with the SEC staff indicated that the focus of the inquiry was Murray’s allegations. We responded to the SECinquiry and produced responsive documents to the SEC. In addition, we produced our chief compliance officer for an interview at the SEC. By letter dated April 18, 2007, the SEC advised us that its inquiry had been terminated and that no enforcement action had been recommended. On or about July 7, 2006, the AG served us with a subpoena containing a number of requests for information and documents concerning, among other things, the termination of Murray. The subpoena does not specifically reference either Rule 2711 or Reg AC. We produced documents and information responsive to the subpoena (including all of the documents that we also had previously provided to the SEC). To our knowledge, the AG has not interviewed any of our employees and we have not received any communication from the AG since the end of August 2006. By letter dated April 10, 2006, FINRA advised us that it was reviewing matters related to the circumstances surrounding the termination of the former employee and requested that we produce documents in connection with that review. By letter dated April 11, 2006, FINRA withdrew its request, to avoid regulatory duplication, upon learning that the SEC was also reviewing the same events. However, in 2007 we received certain letters from FINRA requesting certain information, documentation and interviews. We produced all information and documentation requested, complied with the request for interviews and continue to cooperate fully with FINRA’s investigation. We have not received any further communication from FINRA since December 2007.

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SEC Threatens Credit Rating Agencies With Fraud Charges

August 31, 2010

WASHINGTON — The Securities and Exchange Commission has declined to seek fraud charges against Moody’s Investors Services over its ratings of risky investments that led to the financial crisis. But the SEC said it decided against seeking civil charges only because it determined it lacked authority to charge a foreign affiliate of Moody’s. Instead, in a report on its investigation, the SEC warned all credit rating agencies that they could face charges if they mislead investors with deceptive ratings. Investors rely on the statements these agencies make in their applications and reports to the SEC, Robert Khuzami, the SEC enforcement director, said in a statement. “It is crucial that (rating agencies) take steps to assure themselves of the accuracy of those statements and that they have in place sufficient internal controls over the procedures they use to determine credit ratings,” he said. The warning is the latest step by the SEC to address the conduct of major financial firms that contributed to the Wall Street meltdown. Goldman Sachs & Co. agreed in July to pay $550 million to settle civil fraud charges related to its sales of mortgage investments. And Citigroup Inc. agreed to pay $75 million to resolve charges it misled investors about billions of dollars in potential losses from subprime mortgages. The financial overhaul law enacted in July calls for reducing the influence of the big three rating agencies – Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings. They were discredited in the financial crisis for giving high ratings to risky mortgage securities. The financial overhaul law also gave the SEC authority to pursue alleged fraud by foreign affiliates of U.S. rating agencies that could have a significant effect within the U.S. The SEC accused Moody’s of failing to disclose ratings misconduct by a European affiliate when it registered with the agency, as required by law at that time. Because the alleged misconduct occurred before the financial overhaul law took effect, the SEC said it lacked jurisdiction to pursue an enforcement case against Moody’s. According to the SEC report, a Moody’s analyst found in 2007 that a computer error at the European affiliate had resulted in certain bonds receiving ratings that downplayed their level of risk. A Moody’s rating committee later voted against changing the rating, partly out of concern that it would harm the firm’s reputation, the SEC said. A January 2007 e-mail quoted in the report, from a member of the rating committee to the panel’s chair, said: “In this particular case we seem to face an important reputation risk issue.” Even “the possibility of a hint that the (computer) model has a bug” should be avoided, the panel member urged. The committee’s conduct violated Moody’s risk practices as described in its application to register with the SEC, the agency said. The report says the SEC will pursue antifraud actions involving deceptive ratings, including cases overseas. Moody’s spokesman Michael Adler said the firm was pleased that the matter was resolved and the SEC wasn’t pursuing enforcement action. “We fully support the (SEC’s) message that every rating decision must be based only on credit considerations, and we are committed to maintaining robust procedures to ensure that our internal company policies are followed,” he said. The rating agencies’ grades of public companies and securities can affect a company’s ability to raise or borrow money and how much investors will pay for securities. The big agencies assigned AAA ratings to securities tied to risky subprime mortgages that later went bad and helped cause the housing bust. Afterward, the agencies had to downgrade many of the bonds as home-loan delinquencies soared and the value of those investments sank.

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Richard (RJ) Eskow: Coup d’Etat: Standard & Poor’s Is Now Giving Orders to Congress … and the American People

August 30, 2010

There’s been a lot of talk recently about the enormous power that’s been given to the Deficit Commission, which is co-chaired by Alan ” Social Security recipients are milking it ” Simpson and dominated by people who have advocated cuts to Social Security and Medicare. But here’s an aspect of the story that’s gone unremarked: Standard & Poor’s, the credit agency whose reputation should rightfully have been shattered by the economic crisis, is now dictating policy to the United States government. S&P just put our elected officials on notice: Submit to the proclamations of the Deficit Commission or we’ll downgrade our rating of government debt. That’s blackmail, plain and simple. This threat comes from a privately-owned company whose rating process is riddled with conflicts, and which has gotten virtually every critical assessment of recent years spectacularly wrong. Enron? Lehman? Subprime mortgages? They were zero for three. Yet rather than reining back their penchant for reckless proclamations, the chairman of S&P’s “sovereign rating committee” said that our elected officials’ response to the Deficit Commission would be crucial to its analysis of US debt. John Chambers said last week: “It is very important for the credit standing of the United States that the Congress considers very carefully what the fiscal commission proposes.” Just in case his intent wasn’t clear enough, he added: “It is very important for Congress to take the required steps.” “Sovereign” is right. That’s a kingly proclamation. Bear in mind, we supposedly don’t know yet what the Deficit Commission will propose. (We have a good idea, of course, since both the Democratic and Republican co-chairs are long-time advocates for cutting Social Security.) The total extent of the Commission’s recommendations, and the extent to which they’ll actually provide financial stability, are supposed to be completely unknown at this point. S&P’s statement isn’t an analysis, since there’s nothing to analyze. It’s a threat: Turn your authority as elected representatives over to this unelected body or we’ll cause financial damage to the United States Government. It’s not a hollow threat, either. This statement was made one day after S&P downgraded Ireland’s debt . A downgrade could cause massive harm to the United States government at a time of extreme difficulty. Debt could be harder to obtain, and it would become more expensive. That, in turn, would plunge the US deeper into debt. So who, exactly, is issuing this warning? What kind of credibility do they have? Standard & Poor’s is a division of McGraw-Hill, a publicly traded publishing company. They are a for-profit company, as is their fellow rating agency Moody’s (which issued a similar threat last March). Both of these for-profit companies have eagerly pursued the very institutions they were rating, to disastrous effect. Internal documents obtained by the Levin Subcommittee showed that both Moody’s and S&P let the profit motive compromise their judgments in the run-up to the economic meltdown. As we noted in a previous analysis , one internal S&P email said this about a rating they did for a customer: “”I don’t think this is enough to satisfy them. What’s the next step?” Here’s another example of S&P’s integrity . When an analyst asked to review loan files for a security he was asked to rate, his supervisor told him the request was “TOTALLY UNREASONABLE!” And consider this reported comment , which occurred during exploratory acquisition talks with investment research company Morningstar: “The S&P people insisted to Joe Mansueto (Founder/Chairman) that he was leaving big mounds of money on the table by not charging mutual funds for their ‘star’ ratings. Joe replied to the S&P bidders that it was an obvious conflict of interest to charge the funds for their own ratings — how would Morningstar maintain its independence? They called him naive — and stopped the merger talks.” The comments, though unconfirmed, have not been denied. Expert money manager Barry Ritholtz, who reported the story, indicated his confidence in his source and added, “This anecdote rings rather true to me.” Moody’s fared even worse in our review of Levin Subcommittee documents. Of four key objectives for its Structured Finance Group, responsible for ratings, “high quality ratings and research came in dead last – behind “generating increased revenue,” “increasing market share …,” and “fostering good relationships with issuers and investors.” Get the picture? Why would companies like Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s issue threats of this kind? There could be many reasons. One might be to please its corporate clients, who would like to see government spending cut for both ideological and business reasons. Another might be to encourage cuts in Social Security because, under current proposals from both parties, that would place more retirement savings in funds and accounts managed by S&P’s key clients. Moody’s may also legitimately believe that the deficit needs to be reduced immediately, which is debatable on economic grounds. But if the Moody’s action was arguable, S&P’s statement is indefensible. The ratings agency system is broken. These private companies have accrued enormous power without earning it. A lot of that power has been handed to them by government actions that rely on their ratings. That’s why the Senate voted for the Franken Amendment, which — while leaving these companies private — would have removed the inevitable conflict of interest that’s created when they compete for business. (The House/Senate Conference eliminated the Franken Amendment, calling instead for a two-year study. While the final bill is weighted toward an action of the kind called for by Franken’s amendment, two years gives lobbyists a long time to influence the outcome.) Standard & Poor’s are called “agencies,” but they should be called by their proper name: For-profit companies. These “ratings companies” have undermined the free market by allowing powerful issuers and investors to influence their own ratings. Markets with bad information – information that’s bought and paid for – aren’t really “free.” Now the “rating companies” are targeting the democratic process, too. We need a national discussion about the proper role of these companies, before they cause even more damage. Standard & Poor’s should be reprimanded for its inappropriate and unprofessional intrusion into the working of government. And everyone needs to be reminded: Neither Congress nor the Executive Branch can ‘outsource’ the democratic process. They are our elected representatives. They must not be forced to submit to conflict-ridden private companies with a track record of failure. _______________________________________________________________ Richard (RJ) Eskow, a consultant and writer (and former insurance/finance executive), is a Senior Fellow with the Campaign for America’s Future. This post was produced as part of the Curbing Wall Street and Strengthen Social Security projects. Richard also blogs at A Night Light . He can be reached at “rjeskow@ourfuture.org.” Website: Eskow and Associates

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Mark Miller: Will You Run Out of Money Before You Run Out of Years to Live?

August 2, 2010

A new report by one of the nation’s most respected retirement research groups confirms the worst fears of pre-retirement Americans: Many of us are on track to run out of money before we run out of years to live. That’s the top-line finding of the 2010 Retirement Readiness Rating from the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI). The report projects future retirement readiness each year by crunching actual performance data from 24 million actual 401(k) plan participants. EBRI defines “running short of money” as households that won’t have enough cash to meet basic expenses or to meet projected uncovered home health care or nursing home expenses. The remarkable finding in this year’s report is that shortfalls are occurring up and down the income spectrum. For example, almost one-third of Americans in the second-highest income bracket studies are projected to run out money after 10 to 20 years in retirement. And, nearly two-thirds (64 percent) of Americans in the two lowest pre-retirement income brackets will run short after 10 years in retirement. Most at-risk by age are the older baby boomers now approaching retirement age. Nearly half of older boomers (47 percent) are likely to run out of money, compared with 44 percent of younger boomers and GenXers. Washington policymakers should consider these grim findings as they deliberate possible cuts in Social Security benefits this summer. The EBRI report assumes no changes to current Social Security benefits — and those benefits clearly will be more critical than ever in keeping millions of Americans out of abject poverty in old age. President Obama’s National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform is tossing around changes such as a higher Social Security benefit eligibility age and reducing the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA). Social Security is on the table as part of the debate on federal deficit reduction — despite the fact that Social Security’s trust fund is running a $2.5 trillion surplus. That surplus is parked in government securities — and hence worries deficit hawks who see it as a government obligation now worthy of avoiding. But I digress — and the situation isn’t all doom and gloom. In fact, EBRI’s report does contain one remarkable silver lining — and an important caveat to the predictions of penniless retirement. Overall, Americans’ retirement readiness has improved a whopping 10 percentage points since 2003, the year of EBRI’s first report. The change results mainly from employer adoption of automatic enrollment and automatic contribution escalation features. “The biggest surprise in this year’s findings was the overall improvement in readiness–especially in the lower-income quartiles,” said Jack VanDerhei, EBRI’s research director. The improvement in participation rates was most dramatic among workers in the lower third of income; they roughly doubled their participation rates to well over 80 percent, VanDerhei said. Automation has been gaining ground quickly in retirement plans since the Pension Protection Act became law in 2006. Some of that law’s provisions aimed to boost participation in workplace retirement plans by encouraging employers to enroll new workers automatically in retirement plans, and by making it easier to offer target date funds, which re-balance portfolios to a more conservative stance as retirement dates approach. About half of companies that offer defined benefit savings — mainly 401(k)s — now auto-enroll their employees, and one-third of those that don’t are thinking of adopting it, according to Towers Watson, the employee benefits consulting firm. Ibbotsen Associates reported that assets in target funds hit $256 billion at the end of 2009, up from $159 billion at the end of 2008. Here’s another silver lining in EBRI’s report: the running-out-of-money forecast assumes everyone will retire at age 65. While that may be a reasonable average figure, many Americans will work beyond that age — both because they need to, and will want to stay engaged in their careers. Working longer is one of the best ways to improve future retirement security and address longevity risk, because it means fewer years drawing down savings, and more years of retirement account contributions. So, if Americans do work longer, a higher Social Security retirement age shouldn’t be a concern, right? Not so fast. A key question is how many older workers can be absorbed in an economy featuring chronic high unemployment. Another key issue is the impact of pushing back benefits for low income workers, many of whom have physically-demanding jobs ill-suited to workers in their mid-60s. So, for many workers, a later eligibility age could simply mean lower lifetime benefits. The Urban Institute reports boosting the Normal Retirement Age to 70 and Early Retirement Age to 65 would push an additional 1.5 million older Americans into poverty by 2050. Changes to the COLA would be equally dramatic. A 1 percentage point reduction in the annual COLA now would reduce benefits over time so that a future 75-year-old would see an 11.9 percent cut in benefits, according to research by the Center for Economic and Policy Research. Some changes to Social Security are inevitable. The program is on course to exhaust its trust fund around 2037, at which point current tax revenue would only cover 75 percent of benefits. But the debate should include discussion of benefits adequacy and revenue increases — not just benefit cuts.

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David Fiderer: An S.E.C. Lawsuit Does Little To Strip Away The Secrecy Surrounding Certain AIG CDOs

July 29, 2010

Thomas C. Priore had a very impressive resume . Harvard B.A., Columbia M.B.A., fourteen years of structured credit investment and origination experience, and a 76% ownership stake in Institutional Credit Partners LLC, better known as ICP. Priore was also the President and CEO of ICP, which arranged and structured about $11 billion worth of CDOs. A big chunk of that risk, about $4.3 billion, was insured by AIG , and later acquired by the New York Federal Reserve as part of Maiden Lane III. Priore’s accomplishments were truly extraordinary. He helped found ICP in August 2004 as an affiliate of The Bank of New York, which sold him a majority ownership stake in May 2006, when he was 37. In September 2006, Priore launched a $2.5 billion deal, CDO Triaxx Prime CDO 2006-1 , which was jointly arranged with Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce. AIG insured about 2/3 of that deal, or $1.8 billion, for the benefit of UBS. Later, ICP Securities acted as the sole arranger for a $5 billion deal called Triaxx Prime CDO 2006-2 . About half of that deal, $2.5 billion, was insured by AIG for the benefit of Goldman Sachs. AIG and Goldman must have been dazzled by Priore. I can’t think of any other instance when a big institution bought a billion-plus piece of a deal that wasn’t structured and arranged by a large bank or brokerage firm. Other banks take comfort from knowing that the entity behind a deal has a big capital cushion and is subject to regulatory oversight. ICP was a three-year-old company owned by one guy who lived in Chappaqua. Many CDOs are structured in ways that offer opportunities for abusive self-dealing, and the Triaxx deals were no exception. Investors in these deals did not acquire static portfolios; they were either actively managed deals, and/or deals that enabled the asset manager, ICP, to pick and choose which investments were added to the CDO portfolio during the ramp up period. The investments were subject to certain eligibility criteria, most notably that they had to be rated triple-A and they had to be residential mortgage backed securities. The senior tranches of the CDOs of were entitled to a fixed rate of return, and any excess profits, above and beyond that fixed return, went directly to ICP, which held the equity in the deals. A month ago, the S.E.C. alleged in a complaint that Priore’s firm made all sorts of fraudulent transfers for the benefit of himself and ICP, at the expense of investors in the Triaxx CDOs. The most notorious transfer, according to the S.E.C.’s complaint, was Priore’s fast-and-loose acquisition of a $1.3 billion of Bear Stearns bonds initiated in late June 2007, when Bear was seeking to raise cash to bail out two failing hedge funds . Priore had agreed to purchase the bonds for the Triaxx CDOs, but later decided assign the purchased assets to a different investment account managed by ICP. Shortly thereafter, Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s , within a few hours of each other, announced a series of downgrades on a relative handful of subprime bond issues. Those downgrades spooked the market, and sent prices of the mortgage bonds downward. So in August 2007, Priore arranged a series of unauthorized forward sales of the Bear mortgage bonds to the Triaxx CDOs, which acquired the assets at higher-than-current-market prices. The S.E.C.’s case does not address the more questionable attributes of the deal. What were Goldman, or UBS, or AIG thinking, when they signed on for billions in credit risk on transactions sponsored by a fledgling operation? Why did AIG, the rating agencies, and the U.S. government feel the need to transfer the Triaxx deals into Maiden Lane III? At the time of the transfer, they were still rated Aaa by Moody’ s, which downgraded the Triaxx deals to Caa levels on January 30, 2009. Ostensibly, these CDOs did not invest in subprime mortgages. But we have no way of finding out what went on, because the government still refuses to lift the veil of secrecy surrounding all CDOs, not only those acquired by the Federal Reserve. Until the government voids the nondisclosure agreements that limit public disclosure of CDO performance reports, persons far more culpable than Thomas Priore remain insulated from accountability.

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David Fiderer: Why Goldman Got the S.E.C. to Back Off

July 15, 2010

The weaknesses in the S.E.C.’s case against Goldman were always obvious. To win, the government needed to prove that Goldman lied, and that the lie mattered. The truth is that the bigger deceptions were not lies, but distractions. All the marketing materials and legal documents for Abacus 2007-AC1 were distractions from the most important part of the deal, which was accessible from data service providers but never disclosed by Goldman. Nowhere did Goldman divulge the current performance data on the assets insured by the CDO, 90 deeply subordinated tranches of subprime mortgage bonds. At the end of the day, an investor who bought Abacus 2007-AC1 was buying a static portfolio of risks. It didn’t matter who chose the underlying investments in the CDO, or whether John Paulson was destined to receive a windfall. If you were a sophisticated investor who had done his due diligence, you didn’t need to be told that the deal was designed to fail. You would have figured it out for yourself. If you actually reviewed the performance of mortgage backed securities held by the CDO and understood how cash flow waterfalls and delinquency triggers worked, then you could see that subordinate tranches being insured for the benefit of Goldman were already worthless when the CDO closed. You could also figure out that the rating agencies had deliberately delayed announcing downgrades of the RMBS within the CDO, in order to keep the markets and the deal flow moving. But the dirty little secret on Wall Street was that all too often, due diligence was a sham. People went through the motions without a thorough understanding of what they were doing, like school kids who write reports by plagiarizing the encyclopedia. Investors saw triple-A ratings and stopped thinking. Goldman didn’t need to lie in order to sell “shitty deals.” It only needed to find a greater fool with an impressive resume at a multibillion-dollar institution who didn’t ask too many questions. And it was able to keep the scam going because all CDOs remain shrouded in secrecy to this day. The only people who can buy access to CDO performance data on ABSNet are actual investors, who are subject to nondisclosure agreements. The risk to Goldman is that more of its dirty laundry would be exposed. As we learned from David Viniar’s testimony before the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, the company remains in lockdown mode. And once again, the S.E.C. shows little appetite for digging deeper, especially since its new COO of the Enforcement Division is a 30-year-old kid from Goldman.

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Portugal’s Credit Rating Downgraded By Moody’s

July 13, 2010

LISBON, Portugal — Moody’s credit rating agency downgraded Portugal’s debt on Tuesday, casting fresh doubt on the country’s ability to weather its debt crisis as the economy weakens. Moody’s Investors Service cut Portugal’s government bond ratings to A1 from Aa2. The move deepens the country’s financial woes because foreign lenders will likely demand higher interest returns for the risk of loaning it money. Portugal’s financial ordeal is part of a government debt crisis that has engulfed the eurozone and weighed on the shared currency. The cuts in Portugal’s rating by international agencies in recent months have stoked market concerns that the crisis, which led Greece to the brink of bankruptcy and a bailout, could spread to other financially troubled countries in the eurozone. The government debt agency is scheduled to auction at least euro1 billion ($1.25 billion) in bonds on Wednesday. So far this year Portugal has experienced no liquidity problems and no difficulty raising money on international markets. Moody’s said feeble growth and climbing debt levels over the past two years will continue to sap Portugal’s fiscal strength. The budget deficit ballooned to 9.4 percent of GDP last year, the fourth highest rate in the euro zone. Over the same year the economy contracted 2.7 percent amid the global downturn. The center-left Socialist government has enacted an austerity package to slash the debt but has struggled to find new sources of economic growth. Moody’s said it expects the government’s debt situation “to continue to deteriorate for at least another two to three years” before stabilizing. Portuguese Finance Minister Fernando Teixeira dos Santos said the downgrade, which followed cuts by other rating agencies, including Standard and Poor’s, was expected. “There is no point grieving over this,” Teixeira dos Santos said. “We have to do what the markets demand, which is swiftly put our public finances in order.” The government has set a deficit target of 5.1 percent for 2011, and intends to get the deficit below 3 percent the following year, but financial markets are worried the austerity plan could choke a recovery. The financial crisis, and the government’s measures to address it, have been blamed for pushing the jobless rate to almost 11 percent, one of the highest levels in the euro zone. The minority government, which has resisted trade union protests over a civil service pay freeze and tax hikes, has pointed to recent signs of fresh growth as evidence its policies are working. In the first quarter, Portugal’s gross domestic product rose 1.7 percent from the same period a year earlier – the strongest recovery in the European Union. Goncalo Pascoal, chief economist at Portuguese bank Millennium bcp, said that while growth has been robust so far Portugal’s recovery could still be checked by the austerity measures and continuing difficulties in its main export markets, especially Spain. “We don’t know if the growth will continue,” he said. Moody’s said its outlook for Portugal remains “stable,” meaning it is not expected to downgrade its rating further in coming months. “Whilst the government’s debt metrics have undoubtedly deteriorated, Moody’s believes that they will stabilise at levels that are commensurate with a strong A rating,” the agency said. “In our view, upside and downside risks to that base case scenario are evenly balanced.” The Portuguese Finance Ministry said that its debt-cutting strategy would remain in place. While cuts might not guarantee a quick rebound, “it is nevertheless a necessary condition for a sustained economic recovery,” the statement said.

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Douglas J. Elliott: Financial Reform: Now It’s Up to the Regulators

July 12, 2010

The simpler half of financial reform will be completed shortly with the passage of the Dodd-Frank financial reform bill. Hard as it may be to conceive, the complexity embedded in its over 2,000 pages of text is likely to be exceeded by the complications involved in the regulatory implementation of financial reform. This isn’t just a technical question of working through the multiple thousands of pages of rule-writing, the creation of operating procedures, and the writing of supervisory guidelines. Critical choices will be made — regulatory decisions are likely to be as important as the law itself in determining the success or failure of the effort to bring needed stability to our financial system. What will be the key decisions for regulators to make? Consumer protection. Dodd-Frank establishes a new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). Regulators will decide almost everything about how this works. Congress laid out a broad mandate, a set of criteria to be considered when balancing decisions, and a few limitations. The rest will be up to the regulators. These initial structural and substantive decisions will matter considerably, since precedents, once established, create very substantial political and bureaucratic inertia. Derivatives. Congress directed the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to take a number of crucial steps to reduce the risk of the derivatives markets and to make them more transparent. In particular, they are to ensure that standardized derivatives are traded on exchanges and cleared through central clearinghouses and that appropriate collateral and capital requirements are set for those derivatives that continue to be traded over the counter (OTC). Banking regulators will also be heavily involved, since the major derivatives dealers are all affiliated with commercial banks at this point. Regulators will determine the rules for when a derivative is standardized enough that it must be traded on an exchange. Indeed they may even be called on to make decisions on specific derivatives at times, especially until the rules are clear to everyone. They will also set the rules determining the collateral that derivatives counterparties must put up on over the counter (OTC) trades, as well as the capital required by banks and their affiliates. These choices will significantly affect the cost and attractiveness of derivatives, which matters a great deal given the importance of these instruments in our financial system. Beyond that, the law will make derivatives clearinghouses far more critical than they have been. In practice, these will be institutions that are “Too Big to Fail”, increasing the priority of careful regulation, since the taxpayer could be on the hook in an emergency. There may also be significant decisions to be made about how to implement the provisions backed by Senator Lincoln that force certain types of derivatives transactions out of commercial banks and into their affiliates, if they are still to be done within the banking group. Securitization and rating agencies. Congress mandated a number of changes to securitizations and to how the rating agencies that are central to that market must operate. A considerable number of decisions are left up to the regulators. For example, the SEC is mandated to study whether there is a better approach than Senator Franken’s provision that has the federal government determine who the first rating agency is for any new securitization. (Others could be hired as well, but this would guarantee that a rating would be available from at least one agency not chosen by the issuer or their investment bank.) There will also be questions about how to implement the “skin in the game” requirement that issuers of many securitizations keep 5% of the risk. The Volcker Rule. Congress ordered the banks, after a transition period, to shed their “proprietary” activities. However, there is no satisfactory definition of what this means. Nor are there clear definitions of the several exemptions to the proprietary trading rules, such as the maintenance of securities inventories to facilitate customer transactions. The regulators will be faced with the need to find a way to operationalize the limitations they are required to impose. If they err on the side of toughness, it may limit legitimate bank activities and increase customer costs, whereas if they err in the other direction it could effectively gut what Congress intended. Oversight of the financial system as a whole. There is broad agreement that one of the failings of the prior regulatory system was that no one was clearly responsible for monitoring the system as a whole, such as watching out for developing bubbles in the housing market or elsewhere. Congress therefore established the Financial Stability Oversight Council, which is to delegate much of its efforts to the Fed. This council is new, as is the Fed’s role in working as its agent. As with the CFPB, this means that regulators will be making critical decisions about how it will all work, as they build the structure. “Too Big to Fail”. The media, public, and politicians have devoted a great deal of attention to the question of how to deal with systemically important financial institutions, ones where the government might be forced to intervene if they ran into trouble in a future financial crisis. In the end, virtually all of this will be left to regulatory discretion. The Financial Stability Oversight Council can determine that any financial institution is systemically important. Under those circumstances, the council acquires a great deal of discretionary authority to force divestiture of certain activities, the raising of additional capital, or other steps, as the regulators deem necessary. Further, it is likely that additional burdens will be placed on the big banks and other systemically important institutions, such as the imposition of higher capital requirements than those existing for smaller banks. It is already clear that any additional taxes or insurance premiums on banks will be tilted to make the larger institutions pay higher percentages. Why will regulatory decisions matter? Congress often specifically ordered the regulators to decide how to handle an important issue. There are at least 40 instances in the legislation where Congress required the regulators to conduct a formal study and then choose how to address a specific issue. New legislative mandates will require a large number of critical implementation decisions. There are a number of new aspects of regulation that are created under Dodd-Frank which will require regulators to make key policy decisions that will set precedents for many years to come. The need for global harmonization of financial reform adds complexity and increases the importance of regulatory choices. The most critical examples of this come in the areas of minimum capital and liquidity requirements. The legislation encourages the regulators to raise these requirements significantly, but leaves up to them how high the requirements should go and how the tests should be calculated. There is already an international coordinating process for these two crucial areas, known as Basel III, run by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. The final international agreement will have a major effect on the financial sector and, potentially, on the economy as a whole. The Institute of International Finance (IIF), an industry group, has preliminarily calculated that the economies of the US and Europe could be 3% smaller after five years than they would be without the Basel III rules. My own analyses suggest this figure is quite considerably overstated, but there clearly will be a significant impact which will almost certainly take the form of a trade-off of reduced economic growth in most years in exchange for the mitigation of damage to the economy during financial crises. Many policy decisions must be made by experts in order to have a chance of being effective, given the complexity of the financial sector. Congress is sometimes accused of micro-management, but the complexity of the financial sector and the vast scope of the reforms would have defeated any effort by Congress to make all the important decisions. Why is global coordination critical? Global coordination of public policy in any complex area is difficult, time-consuming, and requires the U.S. to compromise on some of our preferred approaches. Why then should the U.S. regulators put a major effort into global coordination of financial reform? There are at least four reasons why we should often compromise in order to ensure global standards that meet acceptable minimums: Regulatory arbitrage can create a dangerous race to lower standards. If one jurisdiction chooses to set rules that are too lenient, there would be a strong tendency for finance business to move there. Sound regulation is in almost everyone’s long-term interest because of the damage to the financial industry and the economy that is caused by financial crises. However, business can be substantially cheaper to do during the non-crisis years if regulation is lax. The competitiveness of U.S. financial institutions is affected by international rules. The financial sector is a major part of the U.S. economy. Financial activities constitute over a tenth of GDP, our financial institutions employ millions of people, and the leading global position of many of these institutions makes them a significant exporter in an American economy that could use more exports. If international rules are laxer than American ones, then our institutions are likely to lose business. Financial crises have a habit of spreading around the world. Financial crises do not respect international borders. This is partly due to direct financial ties between institutions in different countries, partly due to international capital flows set off by crises, and partly due to changes in sentiment that can spread around the world, including the onset of outright panic. It is in our interest to encourage other nations to avoid lax regulation that could trigger such crises. Economic pain in other countries affects us as well. A foreign recession would hurt us through trade flows and currency movements. Major financial crises generally create or exacerbate recessions, as we saw very clearly two years ago. Conclusions Regulators here and around the world will be critical to the success of financial reform. It behooves us to pay careful attention and to encourage decisions that appropriately balance increased safety with the regulatory burden imposed by new rules. Equally importantly, global harmonization will matter a great deal and should be encouraged, difficult and frustrating though the process can often be. The greatest opportunities in this area stem from the expertise and dedication of financial regulators. The greatest dangers come from the complexity of financial markets, which means mistakes are easy to make, and from the lack of attention paid by the media, the public, and even Congress to the regulatory processes. Bureaucratic self-interest, ignorance of financial concepts, and excessively close ties to vested interests have more room to do damage when external attention is absent.

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David Fiderer: Deciphering Joe Cassno’s Lies Before The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission

July 11, 2010

Joe Cassano is a very good liar, which is why it would be so hard to prosecute him for perjury. When testifying before The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, the former head of AIG Financial Products kept blending in half-truths with his audaciously dishonest claims, so that the overall effect was nonsensical. For instance, to justify his outrageous claim that, “the books were generally considered fully hedged,” he explained that “we were using it basically in actuarial basis …[so] it’s not hedged in the conventional sense.” (Translation: The book was never hedged in any sense. Nor was there any actuarial analysis, only a reliance on triple-A credit ratings.) These rhetorical tricks were designed to throw sand in everyone’s face. But his tactics seem to have worked. The staunchly unregenerate Cassano framed a media narrative that deflected away from his dishonesty and gross incompetence. Here’s a reality check on some of his more ridiculous claims, in order of appearance: 1. Cassanos’s Claim: AIGFP never compromised its high underwriting standards. The Truth: AIGFP had no underwriting standards pertaining to the most important risk, which affected AIG’s liquidity . Commission Chairman Phil Angelides asked Cassano if he understood the subprime risks he insured. Cassano stonewalled with a lot of doubletalk: Angelides: I want to talk to you about this, that these were represented as multisector CDOs. But if you look at — we did a sample of some of these in 2004, 2005, 2006, they were almost overwhelmingly residential-backed and very substantially subprime. For example, in the survey we did of some of these CDOs that you issued protection on, 84 percent were backed by RMBS residential mortgages in ’05, 89 percent in ’06. And just as an example, while you indicated you decided to stop writing on subprime instruments in January of ’06, for example, you backed an instrument called RFC III where that CDO was 93 percent subprime and seven percent HELOC home equity loans. My question for you, Mr. Cassano, is was there — you said you did thorough due diligence. Were you aware of the quality of the mortgages? Do you do direct analysis of the loan data? Were you confident that you had a full understanding of the nature of what you were backing? Cassano: Chairman Angelides, the numbers that you are referencing in these portfolios, I don’t know specifically. I’m happy to look at them again and go through that with you. Reality Check: Cassano insults everyone’s intelligence by refusing to admit that he insured tens of billions of dollars of toxic investments that were primarily comprised of subordinated tranches of subprime mortgage securities. The CDOs that caused the collapse of AIG were no more “multi-sector” than the government of Iceland is multiracial. His unwillingness to acknowledge the obvious truth is a rhetorical device intended to cast doubt and cause confusion among listeners and the media. Cassano: But I think to answer your question more directly, we never diluted our underwriting standards at any point in time. We had rigorous standards, standards set by the AIG credit risk management that we then employed in underwriting these transactions. Reality Check : Cassano said he would answer the question “directly” and then didn’t. The question asked whether he personally understood the risks associated with the subprime mortgages embedded within the CDOs. It wasn’t about what “we” did, and it wasn’t about some dilution or non-dilution of some undefined underwriting standards that may have had nothing to do with subprime risk. What remains indisputable is that there were no standards for protecting AIG’s liquidity. AIGFP was in the business of trading derivatives. The liquidity risk, pertaining to collateral postings, was never even considered when these deals were approved. It sold $78 billion worth of long-term credit default swaps that were unhedged. As part of those swap agreements, AIGFP agreed to post margin, or cash collateral, without ever attempting to define the basis by which those collateral postings would be calculated. The stupidity of Cassano and other top managers at AIG cannot be overstated. They operated like an 11-year-old driving a motorcycle. The current chief risk officer at AIG explained: Angelides: Mr. [Robert E.] Lewis, you are the chief risk officer. Anything you want to add to this? Lewis: I would state that the risk issues that were the focus of the attention at AIG were around the actual credit risks in the underlying portfolios. And our — the rigorous work that we did together with FP was to determine what the likelihood was of suffering credit losses through defaults and losses in the underlying mortgages. The liquidity aspects were something, quite frankly, just didn’t focus on to the extent that we now know we should have. The — these instruments up until the time of the crisis had traded in very narrow bands, highly liquid AAA securities, until the crisis occurred when they traded off quickly and then there was no market. So — Angelides: But were you — but you — were you aware that there was a liquidity provision, you weren’t, were you? Lewis: No, I was not until — Angelides: All right. Lewis: — till the date I just testified. [i.e. July 2007, several years many of the deals were booked] Reality Check: Lewis, like Cassano, had no idea what he was doing. Every trader, every junior risk analyst, every deputy assistant treasurer with the most minimal level of competence knows the dangers of selling an unhedged derivative. You can lose money when the swap terminates, and you can lose liquidity before the swap terminates. The longer the tenor of the swap, the bigger the risk. This isn’t some honest mistake, some detail that could ever be overlooked. A financial company depends on liquidity the same way that a mammal relies on oxygen to stay alive. Lewis acted like the traffic cop who looks at cars in the left lane and ignores the vehicles in the right lane. The only plausible explanation why Lewis still has his job is that the AIG does not want to expose more dirty laundry. Their stupidity was compounded further their willingness to post collateral based on the “market value” of the CDOs. Lewis’s claim that “these instruments up until the time of the crisis had traded in very narrow bands, highly liquid AAA securities, until the crisis occurred,” is further demonstration of his cluelessness and/or dishonesty. The triple-A tranches of these CDOs didn’t trade. Why would they? AIG had assumed virtually all the credit risk in the most senior tranches. These CDOs never had an ascertainable market value based on comparable sales or industry benchmarks, according to PriceWaterhouseCoopers, AIG’s auditor, and Deloitte & Touche, Maiden Lane III’s auditor. Both accounting firms designated the CDOs as Level 3 assets, explained here . Another level of stupidity was their disregard how residential mortgage-backed securities work. These mortgage bonds are valued according to the credit losses that are expected in the future, not according to the actual losses that have already been recognized. It takes a long time, typically about a year, to recognize an actual loss on a loan after the borrower first becomes delinquent. Usually, a notice of foreclosure is first presented after the 90-day delinquenciy period has passed, later, the lender commences a procedure whereby it “buys” the residence, and then the property sits on the market until it is sold to partially pay down the loan. Because of the time lag, you need to be concerned about paying cash margin long before the final tally of actual losses on a mortgage pool. Goldman had always understood this; Cassano’s people didn’t. Cassano and his management team, who were in the business of trading derivatives, didn’t know squat about liquidity risk. Because AIG never understood the risks it was taking on, it agreed to contract language that gave Goldman and other CDO banks the opportunity to jerk the company’s chain indefinitely. Since the valuation of the CDOs could be debated endlessly, there was an ongoing risk that, at any given moment, Goldman could declare its unmet demands for cash collateral to be an event of default. One default can quickly trigger a series of cross-defaults forcing a bankruptcy. This was why the rating agencies told AIG and the New York Fed that the contingent liabilities tied to these CDOs needed to be removed no later than November 10, 2008 , or AIG would suffer further downgrades. 2. Cassano’s Claim: The CDOs held by Maiden Lane III performed in line with his expectations. The Truth: The CDOs performed in line with the $35 billion write-down taken by AIG when Maiden Lane III was created. Cassano: [M]any of these multi-sector CDOs that we did now reside in Maiden Lane III…And to date that vehicle is performing. I think, you know, I’m sure the commission knows the statistics, the federal government lent that vehicle $24 billion. To date that vehicle has repaid $8 billion through the performance of these transactions. And as far as I can see from where I sit when I look at the portfolio residing in Maiden Lane III, I don’t know — I don’t think any of the transactions have pierced the attachment levels that we had set in our underwriting standards… And as we move through this and we come through the financial crisis, the only thing I can do is look at the existing portfolio and say that it is performing through this crisis and it is meeting the standards that we set. And it’s not the credit risk here that eventually became the issue at hand. These — my point has been that the underwriting standards and the credit risk within these transactions have, to date, been supported and still perform. Reality Check: To recap simply, Cassano insured the CDOs acquired by Maiden Lane III for $62 billion. AIG had paid out $35 billion in cash collateral to the CDO banks before Treasury and the New York Fed began negotiating with the banks. When Maiden Lane III paid the banks an additional $27 billion to acquire the CDOs and tear up the credit default swaps, AIG recognized a loss of $35 billion. Deloitte & Touche valued the CDOs at $27 billion on December 31, 2008 , and that value more or less held steady as of December 31, 2009 . Cassano wants to make it sound as if the CDOs’ performance, after recognition of the $35 billion loss created by him, somehow validates his own reckless performance. When Cassano said, “the only thing I can do is look at the existing portfolio and say that it is performing..” it became obvious that he was lying. Cassano can’t look at the performance of the CDO portfolio because he no longer works at AIG and the performance reports on all CDO portfolios are kept secret. The reports are only disclosed to actual investors of CDOs, who are bound by nondisclosure agreements. (The reports are still kept secret in order to protect the banks and rating agencies from lawsuits.) Cassano was blowing smoke in everyone’s face; he has no idea whether these deals have “pierced the attachment levels,” i.e. crossed the loss threshold when a credit default swap provider must pay out. Again, any half-wit in finance understands the idea of discounting future expected losses to present value. 3. Cassano’s Claim: His books were fully hedged. The Truth: They were never hedged. Commissioner Brooksley Born: With respect to your portfolio as a whole, did you hedge any parts of that portfolio? Cassano: Yes. Born: Which parts? Cassano: Much of that…But we ran — you know, nothing is 100 percent hedged, but the books were generally considered fully hedged. Born: Well, let’s look at your credit derivatives portfolio. I think there was something like more than $560 billion in notional amount of credit derivatives in your portfolio in 2007. Were you actually hedging in the conventional sense or were you relying on tranching and the level at which you were insuring? I want you to answer as to whether you were hedging the way you were hedging your interest rates by taking offsetting positions. Cassano: Perhaps the best way to delineate this is that the super senior credit derivative book, which is the book you’re — the super senior credit derivative book globally, which is the book you’re referencing, had $560 billion. We were using it basically in actuarial basis in order to secure that business. So it wasn’t — it’s not hedged in the conventional sense that you’re talking about buying and selling interest rate risk. Reality Check: Cassano went Orwellian, labeling his unhedged portfolio as “hedged” the in the same manner that East Germany called itself the German Democratic Republic. Every hedge has two offsetting positions. A single position is always unhedged, period. The distinction between a hedged position and an unhedged position that you deem to be low-risk is as big as the Grand Canyon. A hedge protects you against a market shock, when the markets freeze or act in an unexpected manner. A “low-risk” unhedged position has no such protection. Of course, the “actuarial basis” that Cassano relied upon was also bogus. 4. Cassano’s Claim: The risk exposure on the credit default swaps was managed on an actuarial basis. The Truth: They took $78 billion worth of unhedged exposure based on the CDOs’ triple-A ratings. The “actuarial basis” by which these CDOs were evaluated was AIG’s secret financial model developed by Professor Gary Gorton of Yale. It was one of those “Monkey-See-Monkey-Do” models that regurgitated credit ratings but tested nothing. The truth was revealed by Andrew Forster, the former CFO of AIGFP, in testimony given on July 1, 2010. The questioner was Commissioner Peter Wallison: Wallison: So the Gorton model now evaluated the risk of loss on super senior portions of these CDOs. Did the model evaluate the assets or the composition of the assets in the CDOs? Forster: No Wallison: So it just — let me go on a little bit further then and ask — so in your testimony you said that in the summer of 2005 you began thinking more about the multisector CDOs, and you began to question whether the modeling that was needed — the additional analysis of deals — was sufficient, or were they sufficiently taking account of interest-only loans? I think that’s how you phrased it in your testimony. Were you then beginning to ask whether the model was actually looking at the underlying loans and how it was functioning at that point? Forster: I think — just to take a step back, if I may — the — through any business that we did, it always made sense to take a step back at different times and question the assumptions that we were using in any of it. And I think that’s — that’s what we did in July 2005. Some of the questions that I posed at that time, we probably knew the answers to. Others of it was just reinforcing the assumptions that we were making. At the time, what we wanted to do was — the model is obviously only as good as the inputs that you put into it — we wanted to make sure that the underlying loans, underlying reference obligations, we were still comfortable with those and we still felt they — you know, the ratings and things like that reflected the risk that was inherent in it. Wallison: Let me see if I understand correctly. The model did look at the underlying loans, the kinds of loans that were being made. And when you were talking about interest-only loans, for example, those were taken account of in some way in the model, so that if the model was made up of 95 percent interest-only loans, the model would have reflected the risk associated with that? Is that correct? Forster: It’s not quite correct, I think — Wallison: Good. Please correct me. Forster: Sorry. The underlying ratings of the obligations — if you had the subprime obligation — if it was all interest-only or heavily concentrated in certain areas, then the rating of that obligation would reflect that. So if it was all interest-only, the rating agencies would see that as more risky. It would likely then get a lower rating. The model would just take the rating of the instrument. Wallison: Oh, so the model relied on the rating agencies? Forster: Yes, the model — I mean, to a large extent. We made additional changes to it and we stressed the rating agency’s assumptions and we checked that we we were comfortable with the rating agency ratings. But the model basically uses the ratings of the underlying data. To clarify further, if you let the bogus triple-A ratings define the range of possible outcomes, a “stressed” scenario is meaningless. 5. Cassano’s Claim: His people did not rely on the rating agencies to evaluate the risk. The Truth: They sure did. Cassano: We did a fundamental analysis of the transactions. My team reviewed the underlying portfolios and the underlying assets within the portfolios directly. So we were not reliant on the rating agencies to tell us what was good or bad in these portfolios. Reality Check: See 4 above. This is how a liar defends his lies with more lies. 6. Cassano’s Claim: He arranged the CDOs to benefit from structural seniority. The truth: The opposite is true. Cassano insured the senior tranches of CDOs compiled of deeply subordinated claims of risky subprime mortgage portfolios. Cassano: I think what you need to look at within these transactions is the underwriting standards that we committed to, to do these transactions. I’ve heard this phrase that it’s a one-sided bet. But when you think about the protections that we built into the contracts through the subordination levels, through the structural supports that we built into the contracts and then through this very, very strict underwriting standards we performed, it — this was extremely remote risk business. Reality Check: Any residential mortgage asset that was not initially rated triple-A is deeply subordinated, at the bottom 20% of the capital structure. The deeply subordinated tranches of subprime mortgages were packaged into CDOs , with senior tranches that were rated triple-A and insured by AIGFP. Structural seniority in a CDO only indicates that you’re better off than the suckers beneath you. It’s like having the top bunk in steerage on the Titanic. 7. Cassano’s Claim: The New York Fed handed over $40 billion to the CDO counterparties. The Truth: He inflated the number by 50% to give the false impression that most of the cash had been paid out at the initiative of the New York Fed. Cassano: For the credit default portfolio the federal government paid $40 billion. But one of the things I wonder about when I look at that is I’ve never understood why the $40 billion was accelerated to the counterparts. Now, I haven’t been involved in that and I’m only looking at it from afar. But when I think about the contractual defenses and the contractual rights we had in the contracts, it has caused me to scratch my head and ask why was it that $40 billion was accelerated to the counterparts. Reality Check : A lying liar lied about the dollar amount paid by the New York Fed, and about the criteria that drove negotiations. The CDO counterparties received $35 billion, paid out by AIG before it allowed the New York Fed to take the lead in negotiations, on Thursday November 6, 2008, well past the point when there was time to negotiate anything. There were no clear-cut contractual defenses because there were no clear standards for calculating collateral. The rating agencies told AIG, Treasury and the Fed that AIG’s failure to remove the contingent cash calls from the CDOs by Monday November 10, 2008 would cause them to further downgrade the company, and thereby precipitate a bigger liquidity crisis from collateral calls imposed by AIG’s ratings triggers. Cassano acts like Heinrich Himmler critiquing the Marshall Plan.

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Chris Bowers: Why We Must Pass the Wall Street Reform Bill

July 1, 2010

Below this short blog post, you will find a very lengthy description of what victories were won in the Wall Street reform bill, what compromises were made, and what defeats were suffered. It is, on balance, an argument for why we should pass the Wall Street reform bill, and a roadmap of where the fight continues. Senator Russ Feingold is a personal hero of mine. Yesterday, he posted an editorial explaining why he is opposing this bill. I am not going to pick a fight with Senator Feingold over what he could have done, or should have done on the bill. While this is a rebuttal of sorts, mainly it is to let people know that there is a lot of good in this bill, and it is possible to present that information in an honest, self-aware manner that acknowledges where it falls short. There are a lot of victories in this bill. We need to pass those victories into law. If the bill is defeated by pro-Wall Street forces over the next two weeks, the only parts which will be defeated are the victories, while all of its shortcomings will remain in place. If it is defeated, the 1999 financial deregulation package will remain the basic framework under which our financial system operates, and we all know how that worked out. If it is defeated, no one will ever really take on the banks again, as even after a financial meltdown, even at the trough of their popularity, and even during wide Democratic control of Congress, their victory now would demonstrate their invincibility. The list below was prepared by numerous people associated with Americans for Financial Reform . It is a work in progress, but I hope you find it to be a useful resource. Pass the bill. *** What happened on Wall Street Reform? Battles won, lost and somewhere in between… Systemic risk regulation We won : Systemic risk monitoring : A new, council of regulators will both monitor system-wide risk and advise the Federal Reserve Board – the current primary systemic risk regulator. Oversight and limits : For the first time, there will be higher capital, leverage and liquidity standards on the biggest, riskiest financial firms, as well as bank-like oversight for large “shadow bank” financial companies like AIG and the mortgage financers that were at the center of the crisis. We lost: There remains an unnecessary loophole, inserted in the Senate at the last minute that unnecessarily allows any financial firm that is just 16 percent commercial to escape oversight from the systemic risk council, no matter the threat the firm could pose to the economy. “The Volcker Rule” The so-called “Volcker Rule” ensures that banks do not make risky “proprietary” bets for their own accounts with taxpayer-backed deposit funds and limits investment in private funds. We won : The Volcker rule was not in the House bill at all. In the Senate-passed version, regulators had wide authority to define proprietary trading. The conference report tightens the definition, narrows exemptions and makes the rule a law, not able to be undone by future regulators. It also includes language banning Goldman-style conflicts-of-interest wherein Wall Street firms package risky securities for customers and then bet that they will fail. We lost : Long before the conference, efforts to limit the size of banks, as in the Brown-Kaufman amendment, or fully separate Wall Street speculation from Main Street banks with a new Glass-Steagall, were defeated. We compromised: Sen. Scott Brown was able to win a classic special-interest carve-out that allows banks to trade using private-equity and hedge funds, though they will be limited to investing no more than 3 percent of bank capital and own no more than 3 percent of the fund. But we won key safeguards protecting taxpayers from the danger of Sen. Brown’s carve-out: banks will have to hold in capital reserves every dollar that they invest in hedge funds and private equity funds. Additionally, banks cannot bail out their funds. Taking on Bank Risk: We won : The final bill ensures that firms don’t become too exposed to any single financial counterparty or to their own affiliates. Also, banks will have to hold capital in reserve that reflects all the off-balance sheet debt they could potentially be responsible for in the event of a crisis. We compromised: The final bill includes delayed implementation of rules to improve the quality of capital that banks have to hold and ensure that leverage and capital standards are higher in the future than they are today. We lost : The House would have required systemically-risky financial companies to hold at least $1 in capital for every $15 in debt. The conference turned that reasonable leverage ratio into a discretionary standard the Fed could impose only if the systemic risk council finds that the firm poses a grave threat to the economy. Providing an Alternative to Bailouts with Resolution Authority: We won: The bill expands the FDIC “resolution authority” – the authority to dismantle failing banks – so that the government can safely shut down not just depository banks, but shadow banks like AIG or the conglomerates that own banks (like Citigroup). This will be critical to containing the next financial company failure and providing an alternative to bailouts. To pay for costs associated with the entire bill, the conference originally included a risk-based assessment on large hedge funds and Wall Street banks, to be used in the event of liquidation or, after 25 years, to pay down the national debt. In other words – those that caused the mess will pay to clean it up. Republicans protested, the conference report was reopened, and fee was changed so costs associated with the bill would now be paid for by a combination of TARP funds and an increase in premiums big banks now pay the FDIC We lost : The House bill included a $150B fund paid for by the big banks that would protect taxpayers from the cost of shutting down a large, failed financial firm. Opponents of reform grabbed onto the liquidation fund as a talking point – claiming, nonsensically, that this industry-paid fund for shutting down firms was a “bailout fund”. We compromised: The fund was replaced by a line of credit from Treasury to be repaid by Wall Street in the future. Federal Reserve Governance Reform: Today, the powerful Federal Reserve is functionally controlled by its regulated banks, with banks choosing 2 out of every 3 regional Fed Bank directors. We won : The bill partially ends this conflict of interest by eliminating the ability of the bank representative directors to vote for the regional bank Presidents. We lost : The conference eliminated the most powerful provisions: barring member banks from voting for directors or bank officers serving as directors (“the Jamie Dimon rule”) and making the powerful NY Fed Bank President presidentially-elected. Federal Reserve Transparency / Audit: We won: The bill includes a one-time audit of all Federal Reserve 13(3) emergency lending during the ’07-’08 financial crisis, and ongoing GAO audit authority for future 13(3) and Fed discount window lending, as well as its open market transactions. The bill also ends the Fed’s open-ended bailout authority by limiting 13(3) lending to system-wide support for healthy companies, not propping up individual troubled firms, and requiring that taxpayers be paid back. We lost : However, the conference eliminated the House’s more comprehensive audit of the Federal Reserve. Derivatives Clearing Clearing requirements will ensure that trades are processed through third-party clearinghouses that guarantee payment in case of default and require parties to have cash to back their bets. We won : Despite tremendous pressure from special interest groups claiming they should be exempt from clearing requirements, it is estimated that the conference report will require around 90% of standard derivatives to clear. This means that once the bill is passed large banks, insurance companies, hedge funds and other financial institutions will be required to submit standardized swaps to clearinghouses and post margin to back their bets. The only exemptions from the clearing requirements are for commercial companies like airlines and home heating oil distributors and other small players in the derivatives market who are legitimately hedging risk. Derivatives Trading Currently, over-the-counter (‘OTC’) derivatives are considered private contracts. There is no way for regulators to analyze all the derivatives activity going on in the system and determine whether there is risk to the system. There is also no way for derivatives users to determine whether they are getting a fair price. We won: Derivatives will be traded on an open, regulated exchange or “swap executive facility” much like the New York Stock Exchange. Regulators will have the information they need to oversee risky activities and prevent fraud. Market participants will also be able to access a constant feed of real-time pricing data for standard derivatives that will allow them to shop around for the best deals on derivatives so they can manage price fluctuations in products they use in their day-to-day operations. Derivatives Enforcement: We won : Regulators have authority to take action if a clearing house refuses to accept a transaction that regulators have determined must clear. We compromised: The only limit on regulators’ authority is that they cannot force a clearinghouse to accept a swap for clearing if it would undermine the financial integrity of the clearinghouse or create systemic risk. Foreign Exchange Swaps We won : Foreign exchange swaps are required to clear and trade unless the Secretary of Treasury makes a determination that they should not. This determination must be based on a variety of factors including whether comparable regulation is in place and whether regulating these trades could result in systemic risk. In addition, if the Secretary of Treasury determines that clearing and trading are not required, he must report to Congress. All federal financial regulators will also be required to write rules to protect retail investors in this market. Cap on banks’ clearinghouse ownership We compromised : The SEC and CFTC have authority to set a hard cap on clearinghouse ownership so big banks can’t use their ownership interests to force standard swaps to be done in the unregulated markets that are more profitable for the biggest banks. We lost : Reformers wanted a set standard – big banks couldn’t control more than 20 percent of voting interests in a clearinghouse, period. We won: Regulators will have the authority to put rules in place that can prevent the conflict of interest that exists when the same people who profit from unregulated trades participate in the decision whether trades should be conducted in the less profitable regulated markets. This may include hard caps on banks’ ownership interest in a clearinghouse. Fiduciary duty for swaps dealers We lost: The Senate bill gave swaps dealers a fiduciary duty to pension funds and municipalities. The conference report weakens this duty, creating a loophole that says the fiduciary duty exists when the broker is acting as an adviser, but in comparable provisions under existing law that apply to securities broker-dealers, a broker-dealer is almost never deemed to be acting as an adviser. We won : The bill provides business conduct standards and disclosure requirements for swaps dealers when they do business with pension funds and municipalities. Swaps desk spin-off We won: The Senate-passed bill required taxpayer-backed institutions to spin off their swaps desks so no taxpayer money could be at risk, ever. That provision was weakened in conference to apply to only between 3 and 20 percent of swaps activity and to force the desks into a separately capitalized subsidiary. It does, however, include the riskiest activities including some of those most associated with the crisis – such as a credit-default swaps in which companies like AIG sold insurance on their bets to companies like Goldman Sachs without having to prove they had the money to pay if the bets went bad. We lost: The conference report provides that banks may continue to deal in swaps if they pertain to “permissible assets”, as defined in current banking law. Swaps based on permitted assets include swaps based on interest rates, currency, gold and silver. Insured institutions will also be permitted to trade cleared, investment grade CDS. That could leave 80 percent or more of the activity on swaps desks still under the auspices of taxpayer-backed institutions. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Independence: We won : The agency will be led by a director appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate. It is housed in the Federal Reserve but not subservient to it. That is consistent with the original vision for the agency. We compromised: The bureau’s rules could be overridden by the new Financial Stability Oversight Council if the panel decided that they threatened the safety, soundness or stability of the U.S. financial system. Authority: We won: the bureau will write consumer-protection rules for banks and other firms that offer financial services or products. It will enforce those rules for banks and credit unions with more than $10 billion in assets. This includes, for example, the authority to require credit-card issuers like Citigroup to reduce interest rates and fees, or mortgage lenders to give clear information to borrowers. We lost : CFPB does not have examination or enforcement authority over smaller banks and financial institutions CFPB does not have blanket authority to step in if prudential regulators fail to do their jobs with regard to small banks and financial institutions. Funding for Bureau Reformers wanted to ensure the Bureau’s funding was not dependent on the appropriation process, which is unstable. We won: Upon request of the director the CFPB gets a percentage of the total operating expenses of the Federal Reserve System. The agency can also request up to $200 million more through the appropriations process. Specific financial products and practices Private student loans : These are some of the sketchiest financial products out there. These loans have typically been variable rates with no cap no deferment options, affordable payment plans, loan forgiveness programs or cancellation rights in the cases of death or disability that federal loans provide. We won : The CFPB will write rules that apply to all private student loans, including those made by Sallie Mae, by big banks and by career colleges that offer private loans. CFPB will enforce those rules for all private loans provided by all nonbanks and by banks with more than $10 billion in deposits. This enforcement power includes power over Sallie Mae, the nation’s largest provider of student loans. This was a major battle because as originally written, Sallie Mae could have been exempted because it actually makes the loans through a spin- off entity, Sallie Mae bank, which has smaller than $10 billion in deposits. We compromised: For small banks and credit unions, including Sallie Mae Bank, their current regulator will be responsible for enforcing the CFPB rules. We lost: The House bill required private student lenders to confirm with the school that the borrower is eligible to borrow the requested amount and has been notified of any untapped federal loan eligibility. This did not make it into the final package. Arbitration: Forced arbitration clauses are hidden in the fine print of consumer and investment contracts and strip the consumer and investor of the right to file claims against major Wall Street firms, instead funneling those claims in an unaccountable and biased private system. We won: The SEC and CFPB can ban forced arbitration within their respective jurisdictions. Forced arbitration in residential mortgages is banned outright. We compromised: The CFPB must study the issue first before instituting a ban Auto loans: Most car dealers make the bulk of their profit not from the sale of the cars but from financing – much of which is not advantageous to the buyer. Tricks and traps abound We lost: Amazingly, car dealers – the least trusted most complained about businesses in most states – managed to win an exemption from oversight by the CFPB We compromised: The Federal Trade Commission, which currently regulates car dealers, can now operate under a much quicker and simpler procedure for making rules related to auto financing Swipe fees Visa Inc. and MasterCard Inc., the world’s biggest payments networks, set interchange rates and pass that money to card- issuers including Bank of America and JPMorgan. Interchange is the largest component of the fees U.S. merchants pay to accept Visa and MasterCard debit cards. The fees totaled $19.7 billion and averaged 1.63 percent of each sale last year We won : The Federal Reserve will get authority to limit interchange, or “swipe” fees that merchants pay for each debit-card transaction. Retailers can refuse credit cards for purchases under $10 and offer discounts based on the form of payment. Merchants will be able to route debit-card transactions on more than one network, which will provide competition ina previously non-competitive market. We compromised: The bill exempt lenders with assets of less than $10 billion, or 99 percent of U.S. banks. Electronic benefits transfer (EBT) and other prepaid cards are also exempted Credit Rating Agencies Credit-ratings agencies had been held up historically as neutral arbiters of risk. That turned out to be far from the truth, as evidenced by the numerous mortgage-backed securities and other risky securities that states and municipalities in particular bought because they had been slapped with a AAA rating – meaning they were supposed to be virtually risk-free. The problem was that credit rating agencies made money by giving their customers the ratings they wanted. There was little or no accountability for the agencies because it was nearly impossible to sue them. Rules & Oversight We Won: For the first time, the SEC will have an Office of Credit Ratings to keep a watchful eye on the rating agencies’ critical role in our financial system. The Office will have the authority to write rules and levy fines. The SEC will have a new mandate to examine rating agency operations. Credit rating agencies will be required to disclose the data and methodologies used in their ratings, as well as ratings performance. The SEC will have the authority to deregister an agency for providing bad ratings over time. Raters must meet standards of training, experience, and competence, and be tested. The SEC shall issue rules to prevent sales and marketing considerations from influencing the production of ratings. Raters will have to take into consideration credible information that comes to their attention from a source other than the organizations being rated. Credit rating agencies are explicitly prohibited from advising an issuer and rating that issuer’s securities. The bill eliminates the credit rating agency exemption from the Fair Disclosure rule which provides that when an issuer shares important nonpublic information with certain parties, now including rating agencies, it must make public disclosure of that information. The bill replaces the term “furnish” with “file” in existing statute. Information that is “furnished” to the SEC is subject to a lower standard of accuracy and liability than information that is “filed” with the SEC. Conflict of Interest We won: The SEC will create a new mechanism to prevent issuers of asset-backed securities from picking the agency they think will give the highest rating. Unless a stronger mechanism is identified in the SEC study, an independent, investor-led board will assign rating agencies to provide initial ratings of asset-backed securities. We compromised: The SEC will be given two years to study the conflict of interest caused by securities issuers picking and paying their credit rating agencies before they begin assigning rating agencies. Liability We won: Investors will now be able to recover damages in private anti-fraud actions brought against rating agencies for gross negligence in the rating. Registered credit rating agencies will no longer be exempt from expert liability under the securities laws. The SEC originally exempted rating agencies from liability to encourage reliance on credit ratings in the registration of securities. Eliminating the exemption is consistent with the bill’s goal of reducing such reliance. The bill clarifies that ratings are not forward-looking statements entitled to special protections from liability. Universal Ratings We won: Raters must apply ratings consistently for corporate bonds, municipal bonds, and structured finance products and instruments, based on probability of default. Reliance on Ratings We compromised: All federal agencies will review their rules and regulations and eliminate all references to credit ratings. We support a reduction in the over-reliance on ratings, but a sufficient alternate standard of creditworthiness will need to be found for some federal rules. Rating Agency Governance We Won: At least half of a credit rating agency’s boards of directors must be made up of independent members with no financial stake in credit ratings. When a rating analyst switches jobs, the analyst’s ratings will be reviewed and the job change will be made public. Compliance officers isolated from the rating and sales business will be required to file reports on rating agencies’ adherence to rules. Post-Rating Surveillance We lost: The final bill did not include a requirement that credit rating agencies monitor and update ratings as market conditions change. However, the initial rating assignment mechanism will take into account long-term rating performance. Public Rating Utility We lost: Many reformers believed that the best way to solve the problems associated with credit ratings agencies was to create a public agency. This was never really given serious consideration in either the House or Senate. Other Consumer Protections and Assistance Note all the wins. Probably did best in this area: Abusive mortgage protection We won: Lenders cannot sell mortgages unless they determine that borrowers can afford to repay – even after teaser rates expire. Prepayment penalties that can trap borrowers in abusive loans are banned for adjustable rate, subprime, and other risky mortgages, and limited for all home loans. No more kickbacks for mortgage companies and brokers for steering customers into higher cost loans than they qualify for.. Limiting fees on all loans, and providing extra protections on high cost loans. Financial assistance for families and communities We won: A new $1 billion emergency loan fund to help families at risk of losing their homes because of unemployment or illness. Expands access to community-based financial planning services, giving more families guidance on building credit, identifying good loans and so on. Provides grants to help families connect to bank accounts and provides funding to Community Development Financial Institutions to create affordable alternatives to payday loans. Additional funds for communities to put foreclosed and abandoned homes back to use for families. More transparency for the HAMP program that we can use to push it to do a better job for households facing foreclosure. Data Enhancements We won: Data enhancements for HMDA (Home Mortgage Disclosure Act) which include information on loan terms and conditions & the age of borrowers. Data on small business lending that will help assess whether woman and minority-owned small business are receiving loans to start or expand their businesses. These data enhancements give us more of the tools we need to keep quality loans flowing to communities, and see and stop abusive practices. A default and foreclosure database that would be an early warning system enabling stakeholders to take action if the data shows a spike in foreclosures. A database of individual loan records in the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) program. This will increase the accountability of the industry for modifying distressed loans Wiring money We won: Creates new disclosures that will allow senders to know exactly how much of the money they transferred will actually get to loved ones in their home country rather than being siphoned off for fees. This information will let people compare prices and shop for the most economical service. Student loan reforms We won: Private student lending – till now badly under-regulated, and full of abusive practices – covered by CFPB rulemaking and enforcement authority. Creation of a private student loan ombudsman for the federal government, charged both with assisting borrowers and with analyzing complaints and making policy recommendations to Congress and the Administration to address them. Report on private student loans. Within two years of enactment, the CFPB is to issue a report on private student loans, including growth and changes in the market, the underwriting and terms of the loans, who is taking them out and why, and if students have taken out the maximum in federal loans first. That’s everything. I hope you found this useful.

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Chris Bowers: Why We Must Pass the Wall Street Reform Bill

July 1, 2010

Below this short blog post, you will find a very lengthy description of what victories were won in the Wall Street reform bill, what compromises were made, and what defeats were suffered. It is, on balance, an argument for why we should pass the Wall Street reform bill, and a roadmap of where the fight continues. Senator Russ Feingold is a personal hero of mine. Yesterday, he posted an editorial explaining why he is opposing this bill. I am not going to pick a fight with Senator Feingold over what he could have done, or should have done on the bill. While this is a rebuttal of sorts, mainly it is to let people know that there is a lot of good in this bill, and it is possible to present that information in an honest, self-aware manner that acknowledges where it falls short. There are a lot of victories in this bill. We need to pass those victories into law. If the bill is defeated by pro-Wall Street forces over the next two weeks, the only parts which will be defeated are the victories, while all of its shortcomings will remain in place. If it is defeated, the 1999 financial deregulation package will remain the basic framework under which our financial system operates, and we all know how that worked out. If it is defeated, no one will ever really take on the banks again, as even after a financial meltdown, even at the trough of their popularity, and even during wide Democratic control of Congress, their victory now would demonstrate their invincibility. The list below was prepared by numerous people associated with Americans for Financial Reform . It is a work in progress, but I hope you find it to be a useful resource. Pass the bill. *** What happened on Wall Street Reform? Battles won, lost and somewhere in between… Systemic risk regulation We won : Systemic risk monitoring : A new, council of regulators will both monitor system-wide risk and advise the Federal Reserve Board – the current primary systemic risk regulator. Oversight and limits : For the first time, there will be higher capital, leverage and liquidity standards on the biggest, riskiest financial firms, as well as bank-like oversight for large “shadow bank” financial companies like AIG and the mortgage financers that were at the center of the crisis. We lost: There remains an unnecessary loophole, inserted in the Senate at the last minute that unnecessarily allows any financial firm that is just 16 percent commercial to escape oversight from the systemic risk council, no matter the threat the firm could pose to the economy. “The Volcker Rule” The so-called “Volcker Rule” ensures that banks do not make risky “proprietary” bets for their own accounts with taxpayer-backed deposit funds and limits investment in private funds. We won : The Volcker rule was not in the House bill at all. In the Senate-passed version, regulators had wide authority to define proprietary trading. The conference report tightens the definition, narrows exemptions and makes the rule a law, not able to be undone by future regulators. It also includes language banning Goldman-style conflicts-of-interest wherein Wall Street firms package risky securities for customers and then bet that they will fail. We lost : Long before the conference, efforts to limit the size of banks, as in the Brown-Kaufman amendment, or fully separate Wall Street speculation from Main Street banks with a new Glass-Steagall, were defeated. We compromised: Sen. Scott Brown was able to win a classic special-interest carve-out that allows banks to trade using private-equity and hedge funds, though they will be limited to investing no more than 3 percent of bank capital and own no more than 3 percent of the fund. But we won key safeguards protecting taxpayers from the danger of Sen. Brown’s carve-out: banks will have to hold in capital reserves every dollar that they invest in hedge funds and private equity funds. Additionally, banks cannot bail out their funds. Taking on Bank Risk: We won : The final bill ensures that firms don’t become too exposed to any single financial counterparty or to their own affiliates. Also, banks will have to hold capital in reserve that reflects all the off-balance sheet debt they could potentially be responsible for in the event of a crisis. We compromised: The final bill includes delayed implementation of rules to improve the quality of capital that banks have to hold and ensure that leverage and capital standards are higher in the future than they are today. We lost : The House would have required systemically-risky financial companies to hold at least $1 in capital for every $15 in debt. The conference turned that reasonable leverage ratio into a discretionary standard the Fed could impose only if the systemic risk council finds that the firm poses a grave threat to the economy. Providing an Alternative to Bailouts with Resolution Authority: We won: The bill expands the FDIC “resolution authority” – the authority to dismantle failing banks – so that the government can safely shut down not just depository banks, but shadow banks like AIG or the conglomerates that own banks (like Citigroup). This will be critical to containing the next financial company failure and providing an alternative to bailouts. To pay for costs associated with the entire bill, the conference originally included a risk-based assessment on large hedge funds and Wall Street banks, to be used in the event of liquidation or, after 25 years, to pay down the national debt. In other words – those that caused the mess will pay to clean it up. Republicans protested, the conference report was reopened, and fee was changed so costs associated with the bill would now be paid for by a combination of TARP funds and an increase in premiums big banks now pay the FDIC We lost : The House bill included a $150B fund paid for by the big banks that would protect taxpayers from the cost of shutting down a large, failed financial firm. Opponents of reform grabbed onto the liquidation fund as a talking point – claiming, nonsensically, that this industry-paid fund for shutting down firms was a “bailout fund”. We compromised: The fund was replaced by a line of credit from Treasury to be repaid by Wall Street in the future. Federal Reserve Governance Reform: Today, the powerful Federal Reserve is functionally controlled by its regulated banks, with banks choosing 2 out of every 3 regional Fed Bank directors. We won : The bill partially ends this conflict of interest by eliminating the ability of the bank representative directors to vote for the regional bank Presidents. We lost : The conference eliminated the most powerful provisions: barring member banks from voting for directors or bank officers serving as directors (“the Jamie Dimon rule”) and making the powerful NY Fed Bank President presidentially-elected. Federal Reserve Transparency / Audit: We won: The bill includes a one-time audit of all Federal Reserve 13(3) emergency lending during the ’07-’08 financial crisis, and ongoing GAO audit authority for future 13(3) and Fed discount window lending, as well as its open market transactions. The bill also ends the Fed’s open-ended bailout authority by limiting 13(3) lending to system-wide support for healthy companies, not propping up individual troubled firms, and requiring that taxpayers be paid back. We lost : However, the conference eliminated the House’s more comprehensive audit of the Federal Reserve. Derivatives Clearing Clearing requirements will ensure that trades are processed through third-party clearinghouses that guarantee payment in case of default and require parties to have cash to back their bets. We won : Despite tremendous pressure from special interest groups claiming they should be exempt from clearing requirements, it is estimated that the conference report will require around 90% of standard derivatives to clear. This means that once the bill is passed large banks, insurance companies, hedge funds and other financial institutions will be required to submit standardized swaps to clearinghouses and post margin to back their bets. The only exemptions from the clearing requirements are for commercial companies like airlines and home heating oil distributors and other small players in the derivatives market who are legitimately hedging risk. Derivatives Trading Currently, over-the-counter (‘OTC’) derivatives are considered private contracts. There is no way for regulators to analyze all the derivatives activity going on in the system and determine whether there is risk to the system. There is also no way for derivatives users to determine whether they are getting a fair price. We won: Derivatives will be traded on an open, regulated exchange or “swap executive facility” much like the New York Stock Exchange. Regulators will have the information they need to oversee risky activities and prevent fraud. Market participants will also be able to access a constant feed of real-time pricing data for standard derivatives that will allow them to shop around for the best deals on derivatives so they can manage price fluctuations in products they use in their day-to-day operations. Derivatives Enforcement: We won : Regulators have authority to take action if a clearing house refuses to accept a transaction that regulators have determined must clear. We compromised: The only limit on regulators’ authority is that they cannot force a clearinghouse to accept a swap for clearing if it would undermine the financial integrity of the clearinghouse or create systemic risk. Foreign Exchange Swaps We won : Foreign exchange swaps are required to clear and trade unless the Secretary of Treasury makes a determination that they should not. This determination must be based on a variety of factors including whether comparable regulation is in place and whether regulating these trades could result in systemic risk. In addition, if the Secretary of Treasury determines that clearing and trading are not required, he must report to Congress. All federal financial regulators will also be required to write rules to protect retail investors in this market. Cap on banks’ clearinghouse ownership We compromised : The SEC and CFTC have authority to set a hard cap on clearinghouse ownership so big banks can’t use their ownership interests to force standard swaps to be done in the unregulated markets that are more profitable for the biggest banks. We lost : Reformers wanted a set standard – big banks couldn’t control more than 20 percent of voting interests in a clearinghouse, period. We won: Regulators will have the authority to put rules in place that can prevent the conflict of interest that exists when the same people who profit from unregulated trades participate in the decision whether trades should be conducted in the less profitable regulated markets. This may include hard caps on banks’ ownership interest in a clearinghouse. Fiduciary duty for swaps dealers We lost: The Senate bill gave swaps dealers a fiduciary duty to pension funds and municipalities. The conference report weakens this duty, creating a loophole that says the fiduciary duty exists when the broker is acting as an adviser, but in comparable provisions under existing law that apply to securities broker-dealers, a broker-dealer is almost never deemed to be acting as an adviser. We won : The bill provides business conduct standards and disclosure requirements for swaps dealers when they do business with pension funds and municipalities. Swaps desk spin-off We won: The Senate-passed bill required taxpayer-backed institutions to spin off their swaps desks so no taxpayer money could be at risk, ever. That provision was weakened in conference to apply to only between 3 and 20 percent of swaps activity and to force the desks into a separately capitalized subsidiary. It does, however, include the riskiest activities including some of those most associated with the crisis – such as a credit-default swaps in which companies like AIG sold insurance on their bets to companies like Goldman Sachs without having to prove they had the money to pay if the bets went bad. We lost: The conference report provides that banks may continue to deal in swaps if they pertain to “permissible assets”, as defined in current banking law. Swaps based on permitted assets include swaps based on interest rates, currency, gold and silver. Insured institutions will also be permitted to trade cleared, investment grade CDS. That could leave 80 percent or more of the activity on swaps desks still under the auspices of taxpayer-backed institutions. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Independence: We won : The agency will be led by a director appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate. It is housed in the Federal Reserve but not subservient to it. That is consistent with the original vision for the agency. We compromised: The bureau’s rules could be overridden by the new Financial Stability Oversight Council if the panel decided that they threatened the safety, soundness or stability of the U.S. financial system. Authority: We won: the bureau will write consumer-protection rules for banks and other firms that offer financial services or products. It will enforce those rules for banks and credit unions with more than $10 billion in assets. This includes, for example, the authority to require credit-card issuers like Citigroup to reduce interest rates and fees, or mortgage lenders to give clear information to borrowers. We lost : CFPB does not have examination or enforcement authority over smaller banks and financial institutions CFPB does not have blanket authority to step in if prudential regulators fail to do their jobs with regard to small banks and financial institutions. Funding for Bureau Reformers wanted to ensure the Bureau’s funding was not dependent on the appropriation process, which is unstable. We won: Upon request of the director the CFPB gets a percentage of the total operating expenses of the Federal Reserve System. The agency can also request up to $200 million more through the appropriations process. Specific financial products and practices Private student loans : These are some of the sketchiest financial products out there. These loans have typically been variable rates with no cap no deferment options, affordable payment plans, loan forgiveness programs or cancellation rights in the cases of death or disability that federal loans provide. We won : The CFPB will write rules that apply to all private student loans, including those made by Sallie Mae, by big banks and by career colleges that offer private loans. CFPB will enforce those rules for all private loans provided by all nonbanks and by banks with more than $10 billion in deposits. This enforcement power includes power over Sallie Mae, the nation’s largest provider of student loans. This was a major battle because as originally written, Sallie Mae could have been exempted because it actually makes the loans through a spin- off entity, Sallie Mae bank, which has smaller than $10 billion in deposits. We compromised: For small banks and credit unions, including Sallie Mae Bank, their current regulator will be responsible for enforcing the CFPB rules. We lost: The House bill required private student lenders to confirm with the school that the borrower is eligible to borrow the requested amount and has been notified of any untapped federal loan eligibility. This did not make it into the final package. Arbitration: Forced arbitration clauses are hidden in the fine print of consumer and investment contracts and strip the consumer and investor of the right to file claims against major Wall Street firms, instead funneling those claims in an unaccountable and biased private system. We won: The SEC and CFPB can ban forced arbitration within their respective jurisdictions. Forced arbitration in residential mortgages is banned outright. We compromised: The CFPB must study the issue first before instituting a ban Auto loans: Most car dealers make the bulk of their profit not from the sale of the cars but from financing – much of which is not advantageous to the buyer. Tricks and traps abound We lost: Amazingly, car dealers – the least trusted most complained about businesses in most states – managed to win an exemption from oversight by the CFPB We compromised: The Federal Trade Commission, which currently regulates car dealers, can now operate under a much quicker and simpler procedure for making rules related to auto financing Swipe fees Visa Inc. and MasterCard Inc., the world’s biggest payments networks, set interchange rates and pass that money to card- issuers including Bank of America and JPMorgan. Interchange is the largest component of the fees U.S. merchants pay to accept Visa and MasterCard debit cards. The fees totaled $19.7 billion and averaged 1.63 percent of each sale last year We won : The Federal Reserve will get authority to limit interchange, or “swipe” fees that merchants pay for each debit-card transaction. Retailers can refuse credit cards for purchases under $10 and offer discounts based on the form of payment. Merchants will be able to route debit-card transactions on more than one network, which will provide competition ina previously non-competitive market. We compromised: The bill exempt lenders with assets of less than $10 billion, or 99 percent of U.S. banks. Electronic benefits transfer (EBT) and other prepaid cards are also exempted Credit Rating Agencies Credit-ratings agencies had been held up historically as neutral arbiters of risk. That turned out to be far from the truth, as evidenced by the numerous mortgage-backed securities and other risky securities that states and municipalities in particular bought because they had been slapped with a AAA rating – meaning they were supposed to be virtually risk-free. The problem was that credit rating agencies made money by giving their customers the ratings they wanted. There was little or no accountability for the agencies because it was nearly impossible to sue them. Rules & Oversight We Won: For the first time, the SEC will have an Office of Credit Ratings to keep a watchful eye on the rating agencies’ critical role in our financial system. The Office will have the authority to write rules and levy fines. The SEC will have a new mandate to examine rating agency operations. Credit rating agencies will be required to disclose the data and methodologies used in their ratings, as well as ratings performance. The SEC will have the authority to deregister an agency for providing bad ratings over time. Raters must meet standards of training, experience, and competence, and be tested. The SEC shall issue rules to prevent sales and marketing considerations from influencing the production of ratings. Raters will have to take into consideration credible information that comes to their attention from a source other than the organizations being rated. Credit rating agencies are explicitly prohibited from advising an issuer and rating that issuer’s securities. The bill eliminates the credit rating agency exemption from the Fair Disclosure rule which provides that when an issuer shares important nonpublic information with certain parties, now including rating agencies, it must make public disclosure of that information. The bill replaces the term “furnish” with “file” in existing statute. Information that is “furnished” to the SEC is subject to a lower standard of accuracy and liability than information that is “filed” with the SEC. Conflict of Interest We won: The SEC will create a new mechanism to prevent issuers of asset-backed securities from picking the agency they think will give the highest rating. Unless a stronger mechanism is identified in the SEC study, an independent, investor-led board will assign rating agencies to provide initial ratings of asset-backed securities. We compromised: The SEC will be given two years to study the conflict of interest caused by securities issuers picking and paying their credit rating agencies before they begin assigning rating agencies. Liability We won: Investors will now be able to recover damages in private anti-fraud actions brought against rating agencies for gross negligence in the rating. Registered credit rating agencies will no longer be exempt from expert liability under the securities laws. The SEC originally exempted rating agencies from liability to encourage reliance on credit ratings in the registration of securities. Eliminating the exemption is consistent with the bill’s goal of reducing such reliance. The bill clarifies that ratings are not forward-looking statements entitled to special protections from liability. Universal Ratings We won: Raters must apply ratings consistently for corporate bonds, municipal bonds, and structured finance products and instruments, based on probability of default. Reliance on Ratings We compromised: All federal agencies will review their rules and regulations and eliminate all references to credit ratings. We support a reduction in the over-reliance on ratings, but a sufficient alternate standard of creditworthiness will need to be found for some federal rules. Rating Agency Governance We Won: At least half of a credit rating agency’s boards of directors must be made up of independent members with no financial stake in credit ratings. When a rating analyst switches jobs, the analyst’s ratings will be reviewed and the job change will be made public. Compliance officers isolated from the rating and sales business will be required to file reports on rating agencies’ adherence to rules. Post-Rating Surveillance We lost: The final bill did not include a requirement that credit rating agencies monitor and update ratings as market conditions change. However, the initial rating assignment mechanism will take into account long-term rating performance. Public Rating Utility We lost: Many reformers believed that the best way to solve the problems associated with credit ratings agencies was to create a public agency. This was never really given serious consideration in either the House or Senate. Other Consumer Protections and Assistance Note all the wins. Probably did best in this area: Abusive mortgage protection We won: Lenders cannot sell mortgages unless they determine that borrowers can afford to repay – even after teaser rates expire. Prepayment penalties that can trap borrowers in abusive loans are banned for adjustable rate, subprime, and other risky mortgages, and limited for all home loans. No more kickbacks for mortgage companies and brokers for steering customers into higher cost loans than they qualify for.. Limiting fees on all loans, and providing extra protections on high cost loans. Financial assistance for families and communities We won: A new $1 billion emergency loan fund to help families at risk of losing their homes because of unemployment or illness. Expands access to community-based financial planning services, giving more families guidance on building credit, identifying good loans and so on. Provides grants to help families connect to bank accounts and provides funding to Community Development Financial Institutions to create affordable alternatives to payday loans. Additional funds for communities to put foreclosed and abandoned homes back to use for families. More transparency for the HAMP program that we can use to push it to do a better job for households facing foreclosure. Data Enhancements We won: Data enhancements for HMDA (Home Mortgage Disclosure Act) which include information on loan terms and conditions & the age of borrowers. Data on small business lending that will help assess whether woman and minority-owned small business are receiving loans to start or expand their businesses. These data enhancements give us more of the tools we need to keep quality loans flowing to communities, and see and stop abusive practices. A default and foreclosure database that would be an early warning system enabling stakeholders to take action if the data shows a spike in foreclosures. A database of individual loan records in the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) program. This will increase the accountability of the industry for modifying distressed loans Wiring money We won: Creates new disclosures that will allow senders to know exactly how much of the money they transferred will actually get to loved ones in their home country rather than being siphoned off for fees. This information will let people compare prices and shop for the most economical service. Student loan reforms We won: Private student lending – till now badly under-regulated, and full of abusive practices – covered by CFPB rulemaking and enforcement authority. Creation of a private student loan ombudsman for the federal government, charged both with assisting borrowers and with analyzing complaints and making policy recommendations to Congress and the Administration to address them. Report on private student loans. Within two years of enactment, the CFPB is to issue a report on private student loans, including growth and changes in the market, the underwriting and terms of the loans, who is taking them out and why, and if students have taken out the maximum in federal loans first. That’s everything. I hope you found this useful.

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European Stocks Climb for Fourth Week as Crisis Concerns Wane BSkyB Rises

June 18, 2010

By Adam Haigh June 19 (Bloomberg) — European stocks rose for a fourth week as concern about the region’s sovereign debt crisis waned. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Societe Generale SA led a rally among bank shares. British Sky Broadcasting Plc soared 19 percent after Rupert Murdoch ’s News Corp. offered to buy the rest of the company for 7.8 billion pounds ($11.5 billion). Nokia Oyj slumped 8.6 percent after cutting its forecasts. BP Plc tumbled for a record ninth week. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 2.4 percent to 255.5, the highest closing level since May 13 and the longest streak of weekly gains since April. The benchmark gauge has rebounded 10 percent from its 2010 low on May 25 after concern about levels of government debt in Europe pushed the index to its cheapest level relative to earnings in more than a year. “Global investors are feeling more hopeful about the outlook for Europe’s stocks,” said Gary Baker , an equity strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research in London. “Bad news is priced in.” He forecasts the Stoxx 600 to reach 300 by the end of 2010, a 17 percent increase from this week’s close. A Spanish bond auction June 17 eased concern that the nation will struggle to finance looming debt maturities. Spain sold 3.5 billion euros ($4.3 billion) of 10-year and 30-year bonds, the maximum set for the auction. Stress Tests Britain posted a smaller fiscal deficit in May than economists forecast as growth lifted tax receipts, providing a boost for finance minister George Osborne before his June 22 budget. European Union leaders agreed June 17 to disclose how banks perform on stress tests, seeking to show investors that the financial system can withstand shocks. The decision came after Spanish officials unexpectedly pledged to publish results on individual banks, the first European government to do so. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said broader regional stress tests will be published in the second half of July “at the latest.” Still, the number of investors forecasting the global economy to strengthen in the next 12 months fell, according to a BofA Merrill Lynch survey of portfolio managers who together manage about $606 billion. Money managers increased their reserves of cash in June to the highest level in more than a year and continued to reduce their holdings in global equities to levels not seen since early 2009, the survey showed. Stimulus Dose “The markets are really worried about economic growth,” said Trevor Greetham , the head of asset allocation at Fidelity International in London. By the end of the year “central banks will be back peddling. We’ll need another dosing” of stimulus, he said at a press briefing to reporters in London June 15. Banks posted the biggest gains among the 19 industry groups in the Stoxx 600, climbing 6 percent. Royal Bank of Scotland, Britain’s biggest government-owned bank, advanced 11 percent. Societe Generale, France’s second-largest bank by market value, rose 13 percent. BSkyB soared 19 percent. The company rejected News Corp.’s offer of 700 pence a share and said it would be prepared to support a bid of more than 800 pence a share. News Corp., owner of the Fox television network, already holds a 39 percent stake. Weir Group Plc surged 22 percent as the world’s biggest maker of pumps for the mining industry forecast second-half profit to be “significantly” greater than last year. Eiffage, Nokia Eiffage SA rose 13 percent after a unit it jointly controls said it’s buying out minority shareholders of a French toll-road operator, shoring up the unit’s finances. This is “a highly accretive transaction” for Eiffage, said Natixis analysts Gregoire Thibault and Rafic El Haddad , who lifted their earnings-per-share estimates for 2010 to 2012 by 16 percent per year on average and raised their rating on the stock to “neutral” from “reduce.” Nokia slumped 8.6 percent. The world’s biggest maker of mobile phones cuts its forecasts for sales and margins, hurt by competition in high-end phones from Apple Inc. ’s iPhone and devices based on Google Inc.’s Android software. Goldman Sachs slashed its price estimate for the shares by 27 percent to 7.70 euros and cut its 2010 earnings estimate by 25 percent to 47 cents per share. BP declined for a ninth week, losing 8.8 percent for the longest streak of weekly losses on record. The London-based oil producer battling with the worst oil spill in U.S. history abandoned a $10 billion-a-year dividend and created a $20 billion escrow fund to compensate victims. To contact the reporter on this story: Adam Haigh in London at ahaigh1@bloomberg.net

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Ambani Must Tap India’s Energy, Communication Needs to Lift Reliance Stock

June 17, 2010

By Rakteem Katakey June 17 (Bloomberg) — Billionaire Mukesh Ambani ’s Reliance Industries Ltd., India’s largest company by market value, must tap the country’s hunger for power and communications to boost the stock that has lagged behind key benchmarks, investors say. The oil refiner and energy explorer has climbed 3.4 percent in Mumbai in the past year compared with a 20 percent gain in India’s Sensitive Index and a 12 percent advance in the MSCI Asia Pacific Energy Index . Investors shied away from the shares as a global recession curbed fuel demand and Mukesh clashed with his younger brother, Anil Ambani , over their business interests. A decision on May 23 by the world’s richest brothers to scrap a non-competition accord removed curbs imposed after they split India’s second-biggest business empire. Reliance on June 11 acquired an Internet services company for $1 billion and fund manager Deven Choksey says more initiatives may be outlined by Mukesh in his annual speech to shareholders tomorrow. “Now there is clarity about them getting into new sectors and investors look forward to the next phase of growth,” said Choksey, chief executive officer of Mumbai-based KR Choksey Shares & Securities, which manages about $123 million for wealthy individuals and owns Reliance shares. “I expect Mukesh Ambani to lay out the road map for new businesses such as telecom and power,” he said in a telephone interview. Family Agreements Under a 2005 agreement that split the Reliance group, Mukesh, 53, kept the petrochemicals, oil and gas units and Anil, 51, got the power, financial services, telecommunications, and entertainment units. The brothers said last month they were scrapping the accord drawn up the following year that barred them from expanding into each other’s businesses. Reliance Industries completed the world’s biggest refinery complex in December 2008 and four months later started pumping gas from India’s largest field. The stock, which accounts for about 14 percent of the benchmark index, rose 1.3 percent to 1,071.15 at 11:18 a.m. in Mumbai. Reliance has lagged behind the Sensex in four of the 10 years ended June 15, according to Bloomberg data. The Mumbai-based company’s first foray in commercial electricity generation may come as early as next month when Reliance plans to bid in a government auction to build at least one power plant in India, two company officials said yesterday. Power Plant Bid Reliance is considering bidding for a coal-fired plant in eastern India that may cost as much as 160 billion rupees ($3.4 billion), said the officials briefed on the plan, who declined to be identified before a decision is taken. India’s government has invited bids for a 4,000-megawatt project in Chhattisgarh state by July 5 and another in the adjoining Orissa state by July 30. Reliance may seek to build the Chhattisgarh plant, one of the officials said. A company spokesman didn’t reply to an e-mail seeking comments. India, Asia’s second-fastest growing major economy, ranks below war-ravaged Ivory Coast, Honduras and Sri Lanka for the quality of its energy, transport and telecommunications infrastructure, according to the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index . Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on March 23 asked companies to fund half the country’s planned $1 trillion infrastructure spending for the five years starting April 2012. ‘A Big Market’ “India will remain one of the fastest growing economies and it will remain a big market,” said Juergen Maier , who helps manage the equivalent of $1.4 billion of assets, including Reliance shares, at Raiffeisen Capital Management in Vienna. Investing in power production will help Reliance Industries generate more cash, he said in a telephone interview. The operator of the world’s biggest refining complex and India’s largest natural gas field had outstanding debt of about 625 billion rupees ($13.4 billion) and cash and equivalents of 218.7 billion rupees as of March 31, the company said in April. Reliance is in talks with banks to borrow $1 billion, two people with direct knowledge of the matter said June 4. The company’s net income missed analysts’ estimates in at least three of the last four quarters after profit from turning crude oil into fuels slumped as the worst recession since World War II cut global demand for gasoline and diesel. “Refining and petrochemicals are cyclical businesses that have their ups and downs,” said Philipp Lotter , a Singapore- based analyst at Moody’s Investors Service. “If Reliance were to broaden out into more stable sectors that would stabilize their overall business.” Moody’s on June 14 affirmed its Baa2 debt rating for Reliance, with stable outlook, following its acquisition of Infotel Broadband Services Ltd. three days earlier. The ranking is second lowest investment grade awarded by the rating company. Overseas Acquisitions Even as Mukesh Ambani diversifies his business , investors expect Reliance to continue to buy oil and gas assets overseas and fulfill its ambition of becoming a global energy company. The company bought shale gas assets in the U.S. from Atlas Energy Inc. for $1.7 billion in April after failing to purchase LyondellBasell Industries AF in a deal that would have valued the bankrupt chemicals maker at $14.5 billion, and losing a bid for oil sands assets in Canada owned by Value Creations Inc. Reliance is considering buying a stake in shale gas assets owned by Pioneer Natural Resources Co. in the U.S., two people with knowledge of the matter said June 10. “They can become a significant global player and there is nothing to hold them back,” said Seth Freeman , chief executive officer at San Francisco-based EM Capital Management LLC, which owns Reliance shares. “They have the financial wherewithal to do that and energy would be the way they expand overseas.” To contact the reporter on this story: Rakteem Katakey in New Delhi at rkatakey@bloomberg.net .

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Covered Bond Sales Jump Amid Concern Over Creditworthiness Credit Markets

June 3, 2010

By Sonja Cheung and Caroline Hyde June 3 (Bloomberg) — Sales of covered bonds are accelerating as investors seek debt backed by collateral amid concern about the creditworthiness of governments and banks. About $7.7 billion of the securities have been sold or are being marketed this week worldwide, more than double last week’s total, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Bank of Montreal , Canada’s fourth-largest bank, sold $2 billion of the bonds due in 2015. Demand for securities backed by mortgages and public-sector loans with top ratings is rising as European governments from Greece to Spain struggle to cut record budget deficits, threatening the region’s banks. Covered bonds returned 0.25 percent in May, compared with a 0.4 percent loss on global investment-grade company debt, Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data show. “In this new world where volatility is high,” it’s “certainly an advantage to be holding bonds that have collateral backing,” said Georg Grodzki , head of credit research at Legal & General Investment Management in London. The company, which oversees almost 300 billion pounds ($439 billion), is a “selective buyer” of covered bonds, favoring notes sold by northern European issuers, he said. Yields have risen at a slower pace relative to government securities than corporate debt. Spreads on euro-denominated covered bonds have widened 9 basis points to 153 basis points since May 6, compared with an increase of 28 basis points to 196 for company debt, Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes show. Company Bond Sales The increase in covered bond sales contrasts with a decline in corporate debt issuance to $70 billion last month, less than half April’s tally and the least since 2003, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Elsewhere in credit markets, BP Plc bonds rose the most since March 2009, rebounding from a record low, as investors assessed liabilities stemming from the worst oil spill in U.S. history. The 4.75 percent notes due in 2019, issued by the company’s finance unit, increased 2.7 cents to 92.9 cents on the dollar as of 12:28 p.m. in New York, according to Trace, the bond price reporting system of the Financial Industry regulatory Authority. The debt fell to 90.1 cents yesterday, the lowest ever. BP bonds had fallen as the London-based company’s efforts to plug its gushing well failed and the U.S. Justice Department said it’s investigating whether any criminal or civil laws were violated. The leak began after an April 20 explosion aboard the Deepwater Horizon rig, which BP leased from Vernier, Switzerland-based Transocean Ltd. BP Rating Cut “Investors are starting to get their hands around the potential exposures the spill companies may have,” said Joel Levington , managing director of corporate credit at Brookfield Investment Management Inc. in New York. BP’s credit ranking was cut one step to Aa2 by Moody’s Investors Service and is on review another possible downgrade, the New York-based rating company said today in a statement. Fitch Ratings cut BP’s ranking one notch to AA from AA+. A gauge of U.S. corporate credit risk fell for a second day as factory orders rose and the service industry expanded in May for a fifth straight month. The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index Series 14, which investors use to hedge against losses on corporate debt or to speculate on creditworthiness, dropped 0.3 basis point to a mid-price of 117.1 basis points as of 12:01 p.m. in New York, according to Markit Group Ltd. The index typically falls as investor confidence improves and rises as it deteriorates. European Risk Falls The cost of insuring against non-payment on European corporate bonds fell the most in a week today, according to traders of credit-default swaps, while indexes in Asia also declined. The rally in credit coincided with gains in Europe and Asia stock markets, with the DJ Stoxx 600 Europe index rising 1.4 percent. Default swaps on the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 50 mostly high-yield European companies fell 24.4 basis points to a two-week low of 558.8, according to Markit data. The decline signals an improvement in investor perceptions of credit quality. Credit-default swaps on European sovereign notes snapped three days of increases, with contracts tied to Italy dropping 10 basis points to 223, declining from a record, according to CMA DataVision. Default swaps linked to Greece’s government bonds fell 21 basis points to 717, Spain dropped 12 basis points to 238 and Portugal was 15 basis points lower at 330, CMA prices show. SovX Europe Index The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of credit- default swaps linked to debt of 15 governments fell to 147 basis points, from yesterday’s all-time high closing price of 154.5, according to CMA. Credit-default swaps on BP’s debt were 13 basis points lower at 246. In emerging markets, spreads narrowed 7 basis points on average to 307, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Emerging Market Bond index. Argentina’s new 2017 bonds sank in their first day of trading as the government began turning over the securities to investors as part of its restructuring of $18.3 billion of defaulted debt kept out of a 2005 settlement. The 8.75 percent notes tumbled to 80.85 cents on the dollar from their issue price of 90.11, Stone Harbor Investment Partners said. Argentina began issuing $738 million of the bonds yesterday to institutional investors who participated in an early tender period. The government is distributing the securities as compensation for past due interest. “Argentina came up with an issuance price which isn’t really in line with reality,” said Jim Craige , who helps manage $12 billion of emerging-market debt, including defaulted Argentine bonds, at Stone Harbor in New York. Covered Bond Sales Bank of Montreal yesterday sold U.S. dollar-denominated covered bonds in the first transaction in the currency in more than a month. BNP Paribas Home Loan Covered Bond SA, a unit of France’s largest bank, sold 1.5 billion euros ($1.8 billion) of five-year notes that yielded 42 basis points more than the swap rate, Bloomberg data show. Dexia SA in Brussels sold 500 million euros of 10-year bonds with a 15 basis-point spread. Bank of New Zealand , a unit of National Australia Bank Ltd., is meeting with investors this week before a possible sale of covered bonds, according to a person familiar with the plan. The lender has completed the documentation it needs to sell the covered notes, the person said, asking not to be named as the plans are private. A sale would be the first issue of such securities in New Zealand. ‘Flight to Safety’ “Investors are buying covered bonds rather than unsecured notes as a flight to safety,” said Florian Hillenbrand , a Munich-based senior analyst at UniCredit SpA, Italy’s biggest bank. Banks are “tapping the market now because it’s a nice window of opportunity and investors have money to put to work,” said Hillenbrand, who recommends buying German, French and Scandinavian covered bonds. Jose Sarafana , the Paris-based head of covered bond strategy at Societe Generale SA, said he expects another 60 billion euros of sales this year. “Covered bonds offer safer, more liquid assets than senior unsecured notes and therefore we’re seeing plenty of demand for new issues,” he said. Issues in the $2.9 trillion covered bond market get higher ratings than regular notes because they are backed by a pool of assets that can be sold in a default. The extra security typically allows lenders to pay less interest. Covered bonds, which date back to the 18th century, are mostly sold by banks and tend to originate from Europe. Lenders in the region are facing 195 billion euros of bad debts by the end of 2011 as governments cut spending to reduce budget deficits, the European Central Bank estimates. “Bond issuance was very low in May, so we’re now seeing banks looking to covered bonds to meet their growing refinancing needs,” said SocGen’s Sarafana. Borrowers are rushing to sell debt before the ECB’s year- long purchase program ends on June 30. The Frankfurt-based ECB said yesterday it has spent 55.1 billion euros of the 60 billion it set aside a year ago to support credit markets by buying covered bonds. To contact the reporters on this story: Sonja Cheung in London scheung58@bloomberg.net ; Caroline Hyde in London chyde3@bloomberg.net

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Covered Bond Sales Surge Transocean Tumbles Credit Markets

June 3, 2010

By Sonja Cheung and Caroline Hyde June 3 (Bloomberg) — Sales of covered bonds are accelerating as investors seek debt backed by collateral amid concern about the creditworthiness of governments and banks. About $7.7 billion of the securities have been sold or are being marketed this week worldwide, more than double last week’s total, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Bank of Montreal , Canada’s fourth-largest bank, sold $2 billion of the bonds due in 2015. Demand for securities backed by mortgages and public-sector loans with top ratings is rising as European governments from Greece to Spain struggle to cut record budget deficits, threatening the region’s banks. Covered bonds returned 0.25 percent in May, compared with a 0.4 percent loss on global investment-grade company debt, Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data show. “In this new world where volatility is high,” it’s “certainly an advantage to be holding bonds that have collateral backing,” said Georg Grodzki , head of credit research at Legal & General Investment Management in London. The company, which oversees almost 300 billion pounds ($440 billion), is a “selective buyer” of covered bonds, favoring notes sold by northern European issuers, he said. Yields have risen at a slower pace relative to government securities than corporate debt. Spreads on euro-denominated covered bonds have widened 9 basis points to 153 basis points since May 6, compared with an increase of 28 basis points to 196 for company debt, Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes show. Company Bond Sales The increase in covered bond sales contrasts with a decline in corporate debt issuance to $70 billion last month, less than half April’s tally and the least since 2003, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Elsewhere in credit markets, Transocean Ltd. ’s notes fell the most in 17 months yesterday after BP Plc failed to plug its leaking Gulf of Mexico well and the U.S. investigated if criminal or civil laws were violated. The drilling contractor’s 5.25 percent securities due in 2013 declined 4.8 cents to 94.4 on the dollar, after trading as low as 92.5, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. London-based BP’s 5.25 percent 2013 notes tumbled 3.4 cents to 98.3 yesterday, while Anadarko Petroleum Corp.’s 6.45 percent bonds due 2036 plunged 4 cents to 81.9, the lowest since May 2009. Energy company bonds have plunged since the worst oil spill in U.S. history began after an April 20 explosion aboard the Deepwater Horizon rig, which BP leased from Transocean. “There’s more questions than answers so everyone wants to sell,” said Vivek Pal , an analyst at broker-dealer Knight Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut. Junk Bonds Moody’s Investors Service said an index measuring the difficulty of borrowing for junk-rated companies failed to show improvement for the first time in 13 months. The Moody’s Liquidity-Stress Index, which falls when more cash is available in the corporate bond market, was 4.8 percent in May, unchanged from April, the rating agency said in a statement. The index peaked at 20.9 percent in March 2009. “While credit market conditions have allowed issuers to improve near-term liquidity and chip away at forthcoming maturities, a significant amount of corporate debt still matures from 2010-2014,” Moody’s analyst John Puchalla said. More than $800 billion of junk debt will mature through 2014, causing a wave of distressed exchanges in which companies try to swap out their debt at a discount to face value to avoid bankruptcy, Moody’s said in a report last month. GE Sees Bargain General Electric Co.’s investment arm is buying U.S. commercial-mortgage securities and high-yield corporate bonds. “We’re adding in markets that we feel will recover nicely with a fundamental recovery in the U.S.,” Paul Colonna , who oversees $58 billion as chief investment officer for fixed income at GE Asset Management in Stamford, Connecticut, said yesterday in a telephone interview. “While we certainly had a volatile time over the last month or so, I don’t think this is the path for the rest of the year,” Colonna said. Investors lost money on high-yield corporate bonds and commercial mortgage-backed securities last month as bond buyers fled to the “safest assets,” such as U.S. Treasuries and home- loan bonds with government-backed guarantees, Bank of America Corp. said in a June 1 report. Bond Risk Falls The cost of insuring against non-payment on European corporate bonds fell the most in a week today, according to traders of credit-default swaps, while indexes in Asia also declined. The rally in credit coincided with gains in stock markets worldwide, with the DJ Stoxx 600 Europe index rising 2.2 percent, the most since May 27. Default swaps on the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 50 mostly high-yield European companies fell 25.5 basis points to a two-week low of 550.5, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. at 10 a.m. in London. The decline signals an improvement in investor perceptions of credit quality. The Markit iTraxx Asia index of 50 investment-grade borrowers outside Japan shed 9 basis points to 136 basis points in Singapore, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc prices show. Credit-default swaps on European sovereign notes snapped three days of increases, with contracts tied to Italy dropping 10 basis points to 223, declining from a record, according to CMA DataVision. Default swaps linked to Greece’s government bonds fell 21 basis points to 717, Spain dropped 12 basis points to 238 and Portugal was 15 basis points lower at 330, CMA prices show. SovX Europe Index The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of credit- default swaps linked to debt of 15 governments fell to 147 basis points, from yesterday’s all-time high closing price of 154.5, according to CMA. Credit-default swaps on BP’s debt were 13 basis points lower at 246. In emerging markets, spreads narrowed 13 basis points on average to 314, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Emerging Market Bond index. Argentina’s new 2017 bonds sank in their first day of trading as the government began turning over the securities to investors as part of its restructuring of $18.3 billion of defaulted debt kept out of a 2005 settlement. The 8.75 percent notes tumbled to 80.85 cents on the dollar from their issue price of 90.11, Stone Harbor Investment Partners said. Argentina began issuing $738 million of the bonds yesterday to institutional investors who participated in an early tender period. The government is distributing the securities as compensation for past due interest. “Argentina came up with an issuance price which isn’t really in line with reality,” said Jim Craige , who helps manage $12 billion of emerging-market debt, including defaulted Argentine bonds, at Stone Harbor in New York. Covered Bonds Bank of Montreal sold U.S. dollar-denominated covered bonds in the first transaction in the currency in more than a month. BNP Paribas Home Loan Covered Bond SA, a unit of France’s largest bank, sold 1.5 billion euros ($1.8 billion) of five-year notes yesterday that yielded 42 basis points more than the swap rate, Bloomberg data show. Dexia SA in Brussels sold 500 million euros of 10-year bonds with a 15 basis-point spread. Bank of New Zealand , a unit of National Australia Bank Ltd., is meeting with investors this week before a possible sale of covered bonds, according to a person familiar with the plan. The lender has completed the documentation it needs to sell the covered notes, the person said, asking not to be named as the plans are private. A sale would be the first issue of such securities in New Zealand. ‘Flight to Safety’ “Investors are buying covered bonds rather than unsecured notes as a flight to safety,” said Florian Hillenbrand , a Munich-based senior analyst at UniCredit SpA, Italy’s biggest bank. Banks are “tapping the market now because it’s a nice window of opportunity and investors have money to put to work,” said Hillenbrand, who recommends buying German, French and Scandinavian covered bonds. Jose Sarafana , the Paris-based head of covered bond strategy at Societe Generale SA, said he expects another 60 billion euros of sales this year. “Covered bonds offer safer, more liquid assets than senior unsecured notes and therefore we’re seeing plenty of demand for new issues,” he said. Issues in the $2.9 trillion covered bond market get higher ratings than regular notes because they are backed by a pool of assets that can be sold in a default. The extra security typically allows lenders to pay less interest. Covered bonds, which date back to the 18th century, are mostly sold by banks and tend to originate from Europe. Lenders in the region are facing 195 billion euros of bad debts by the end of 2011 as governments cut spending to reduce budget deficits, the European Central Bank estimates. “Bond issuance was very low in May, so we’re now seeing banks looking to covered bonds to meet their growing refinancing needs,” said SocGen’s Sarafana. Borrowers are rushing to sell debt before the ECB’s year- long purchase program ends on June 30. The Frankfurt-based ECB said yesterday it has spent 55.1 billion euros of the 60 billion it set aside a year ago to support credit markets by buying covered bonds. To contact the reporters on this story: Sonja Cheung in London scheung58@bloomberg.net ; Caroline Hyde in London chyde3@bloomberg.net

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Moody’s Chief McDaniel Says Company’s CDO Ratings `Deeply Disappointing’

June 2, 2010

By Matthew Leising and Andrew Frye June 2 (Bloomberg) — Moody’s Corp. Chief Executive Officer Raymond McDaniel said his company’s ratings of collateralized debt obligations and residential mortgage securities in the past several years have been “deeply disappointing.” McDaniel said the collapse of the housing market and subsequent financial crisis were of a magnitude “many of us would have once thought unimaginable,” according to written testimony submitted to the U.S. Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission before a hearing today in New York on credit ratings. He said he is proud of Moody’s reputation and the firm’s record of 100 years of rating trillions of dollars in debt. “However, the performance of our credit ratings for U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities and related collateralized debt obligations over the past several years has been deeply disappointing,” he said. “Moody’s is certainly not satisfied with the performance of these ratings.” Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings face scrutiny by Congress and state insurance regulators after assigning top grades to U.S. subprime-mortgage bonds just before that market collapsed in 2007, sparking the financial crisis. Moody’s said last month it may be sued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for filing false and misleading descriptions of its credit-ratings policies. Warren Buffett , the billionaire chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. and Moody Corp.’s largest shareholder , is also scheduled to testify, as is former employee Eric Kolchinsky , who has said the firm violated securities laws by knowingly providing “incorrect” ratings. Moody’s has denied the claim. Buffett declined to provide his written testimony in advance, according to the FCIC. Regulators The U.S. Senate in May approved a plan to allow regulators, instead of bond issuers, to choose who rates asset-backed securities after investors said the ratings companies inflated assessments of mortgage bonds because they were paid by Wall Street firms selling the debt. A panel, overseen by the SEC, would assign a credit-ratings company to evaluate an offering. The proposal is part of a larger financial reform package that the Senate passed last month. After being reconciled with the House version of the bill, it must be signed by President Barack Obama to become law. Moody’s shares fell $1.20, or 5.9 percent, to $19.30 yesterday in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. They had lost more than 30 percent this year through yesterday. Testimony S&P and Fitch representatives weren’t invited to speak at the hearing today because their testimony wasn’t needed to understand issues with the credit-ratings industry, said Tucker Warren, a spokesman for the FCIC. The inquiry panel was created to investigate the causes of the financial crisis as Congress debates the most sweeping overhaul of banking regulations since the Great Depression. “To fulfill that mandate, it’s not always necessary for us to look at every institution within an industry to get the insight we need,” Warren said in an e-mailed statement. “In the case of our public hearing on credit ratings, the commission feels like Moody’s gives us a good look.” The fact that only Moody’s executives will appear today isn’t related to its being notified by the SEC that the company may be sued, Warren said. Buffett sold Moody’s stock in each of the last three quarters, reducing a stake that had remained steady at 48 million shares since 2000. Buffett, who oversees a U.S. equity portfolio with a market value of $50.9 billion at the end of March, invests in firms that he thinks have long-term competitive advantages. Other Sources Profits in the ratings industry are under pressure as bond buyers seek alternative sources of research, said Meyer Shields , an equity analyst with Stifel Nicolaus & Co. Some investors are doing more evaluations of debt on their own, while others are bypassing established firms such as Moody’s for newer ratings companies, Shields said. “Clearly, rating agencies missed this whole crisis,” Shields, who has a “hold” rating on Berkshire shares, said in an interview. “It does, I think, change the perception of the value that the rating agencies bring to the table.” Moody’s, whose founder John Moody created credit grades a century ago, competes with McGraw-Hill Cos.’s S&P unit and Fitch Ratings for business assigning grades to corporate debt and mortgage bonds. To contact the reporters on this story: Matthew Leising in New York at mleising@bloomberg.net ; Andrew Frye in New York at afrye@bloomberg.net .

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Cameron Bull Market in Gilts Beating Merkel Bonds as U.K. Keeps AAA Rating

June 1, 2010

By Paul Dobson and Anchalee Worrachate June 1 (Bloomberg) — U.K. government debt investors are gaining confidence in Prime Minister David Cameron’s plan to tame a budget deficit that the world’s biggest bond-fund manager described as a “bed of nitroglycerine.” Gilts returned 2.2 percent since Cameron’s Conservatives agreed to govern with the Liberal Democrats on May 11, compared with 1 percent for U.S. Treasuries and 2 percent for German bunds, according to indexes from Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch unit. Ten-year gilt yields fell to the lowest in more than seven months on May 25, a day after the government announced 6.25 billion pounds ($9.1 billion) of spending cuts for 2010. Fidelity International, Loomis Sayles & Co. and investors overseeing more than $1 trillion say Cameron, 43, will reduce the biggest deficit among the Group of Seven nations and avoid a downgrade of the U.K’s AAA credit rating. The coalition said it designed the cuts to send a “shockwave” through state departments and promised a “comprehensive and credible” plan to tackle the 156 billion-pound shortfall. “The market is inclined to give the new coalition government the benefit of the doubt and see what the spending cuts look like,” said David Rolley , who helps oversee $106 billion as co-head of global fixed-income in Boston at Loomis Sayles. “There is local institutional bid for long-dated government paper, and that’s pretty useful.” Financial Shock Investors demanded 94 basis points in extra yield to hold U.K. 10-year bonds rather than German bunds as of 2:08 p.m. today in London, narrowing from a four-and-a-half-year high of 103 basis points, or 1.03 percentage points, on May 7. The 10-year gilt yield fell one basis point to 3.56 percent, after reaching a low of 3.45 percent on May 25. British securities returned 4.4 percent in 2010, beating the 3.9 percent gain for Treasuries and trailing the 6.4 percent return for bunds, according to the Merrill Lynch indexes. “The very first decision the government has made is to bring down the deficit and that’s good news,” said Axel Botte , a strategist at AXA Investment Managers in Paris who helps oversee about 500 billion euros ($615 billion). “It’s taken out some of the risk premium and after that vote of confidence, gilts are well placed compared to U.S. Treasuries and bunds.” European nations are under pressure from investors to cut debt after Greece’s budget deficit soared to 13.6 percent of gross domestic product last year, precipitating the biggest shock to world markets since the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Merkel’s Share Europe’s leaders pieced together a rescue package of almost $1 trillion amid speculation the euro area may break up. The extra fiscal obligations that German Chancellor Angela Merkel is taking on are making bunds riskier to investors relative to gilts. German lawmakers agreed to contribute as much as 148 billion euros to indebted European states. Germany’s auction last week of five-year notes drew the lowest demand since March 2008. Investors bid for 6.1 billion euros of 5.45 billion euros of securities sold, a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.1, the least since the sale of similar securities on March 26, 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The government originally planned to sell 7 billion euros. The Bundesbank was forced to retain 22 percent of the offer. ‘Avoid’ Bunds “Yields have to go higher,” Michael Markovic , a senior fixed-income strategist at Credit Suisse Group AG in Zurich, said May 27 in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “Our advice to clients is really to avoid this intermediate-to-longer segment of the German yield curve.” In the U.S., President Barack Obama is banking on measures to stimulate job growth and the economy to reduce the deficit. The White House budget office projects a record $1.55 trillion gap in the year ending Sept. 30, up almost 10 percent from last year’s $1.41 trillion. The U.K. budget gap is like a “bed of nitroglycerine,” Bill Gross , who runs the world’s biggest mutual fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said in January. He cited the nation’s debt load and the potential for currency devaluation as risks for bondholders. The coalition between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats “is a step in the right direction,” Michael Amey , Pimco’s executive vice president of U.K. fixed income, said in an interview on May 20. “But that’s just the first of a number of steps that one will need to see before gaining comfort on a longer-term outlook for the gilt market.” Schroders Is ‘Cautious’ Schroders Plc’s David Scammell said he is “cautious” on gilts because of the size of the government’s task. David Laws , the new government’s chief secretary at the Treasury until he resigned during the weekend following revelations about his parliamentary expenses, said he found a note from his predecessor, Liam Byrne , that said: “I’m afraid to tell you there’s no money left.” “If they can’t do something that is deemed to be credible, we are in danger of higher yields and a downgrade,” said Scammell, a money manager at Schroders in London, which oversees about $223 billion of assets. “At the moment the U.K. is in the good-market camp. But it’s right on the edge.” Cameron’s challenge is to maintain growth in a nation whose debt will rise to 77 percent of GDP this year and may approach 100 percent by 2014, according to Standard & Poor’s. The rating company affirmed its “negative” outlook on the U.K.’s AAA grade on March 29 “in the absence of a strong fiscal consolidation plan.” Investec Turns Bullish The U.K. prime minister promised to accelerate deficit reductions. A newly-created Office of Budget Responsibility, headed by former Treasury adviser Alan Budd , will produce new forecasts before a June 22 emergency budget. “The situation in the U.K. is salvageable,” said John Stopford , co-head of global fixed income in London for Investec Asset Management Ltd., which oversees about $65 billion. Stopford has an “overweight” position in the bonds after changing from “underweight.” That means his funds now hold a greater percentage of gilts than in the benchmark indexes he uses to measure performance. Britain’s ruling parties said May 20 they are united over the need for swift action to reduce the record shortfall. “I fully support the efforts of the chancellor of the exchequer, George Osborne , to deal with this problem urgently,” Liberal Democrat Business Secretary Vince Cable told reporters in London as the new government presented its policy program. Shared Program Osborne, a Conservative, said deficit reduction “takes precedence, and that’s very, very important.” The program commits the coalition to cutting the deficit at a faster pace than planned by the Labour government, he said. Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said May 12 he backs the bid to start cuts this year. For Standard Life Investments, the outlook for gilts has improved since before the election, when investors speculated a so-called hung parliament with no outright winner would lead to a minority government too weak to tackle the deficit. “The market has given them a bit of a thumbs up,” said Richard Batty , a global investment strategist in Edinburgh who helps to oversee Standard Life’s $175 billion. “It seems the government can work more effectively on its fiscal plan than we thought it could a few months ago.” Cameron, who called Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg a “joke” before the election, made deficit reduction a focus of his manifesto. Cable, who spoke for the Liberal Democrats on financial matters before the May 6 poll, said in April rising unemployment exposed the “folly of Tory plans to pull the rug from under the recovery” with early spending cuts. Losing ‘Patience’ Any sign of a disagreement between the two parties over the deficit strategy may send bond yields soaring, according to Ignis Asset Management. “The market could lose patience very quickly if it is disappointed by their efforts,” said Russ Oxley , head of rates in Glasgow at Ignis, which has about $100 billion of assets. “A market crisis would precipitate a downgrade.” Concern that the U.K.’s rating will be lowered is premature, said Ian Fishwick , a money manager who oversees about $3.5 billion at Fidelity International, the London-based affiliate of Fidelity Investments, the world’s biggest mutual- fund company. “The U.K. does have sufficient flexibility to deal with these problems and so long as it’s evident that they are moving in the right direction, I think the rating agencies will give the U.K. time,” he said. “The key thing that this government is going to do differently from the old government is to start tackling the deficit more quickly.” To contact the reporter on this story: Paul Dobson in London at pdobson2@bloomberg.net ; Anchalee Worrachate in London at aworrachate@bloomberg.net .

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Cameron Gilt Bull Market Beats Bunds as U.K. Retains AAA Rating

June 1, 2010

By Paul Dobson and Anchalee Worrachate June 1 (Bloomberg) — U.K. government debt investors are gaining confidence in Prime Minister David Cameron’s plan to tame a budget deficit that the world’s biggest bond-fund manager described as a “bed of nitroglycerine.” Gilts returned 2.2 percent since Cameron’s Conservatives agreed to govern with the Liberal Democrats on May 11, compared with 1 percent for U.S. Treasuries and 2 percent for German bunds, according to indexes from Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch unit. Ten-year gilt yields fell to the lowest in more than seven months on May 25, a day after the government announced 6.25 billion pounds ($9.1 billion) of spending cuts for 2010. Fidelity International, Loomis Sayles & Co. and investors overseeing more than $1 trillion say Cameron, 43, will reduce the biggest deficit among the Group of Seven nations and avoid a downgrade of the U.K’s AAA credit rating. The coalition said it designed the cuts to send a “shockwave” through state departments and promised a “comprehensive and credible” plan to tackle the 156 billion-pound shortfall. “The market is inclined to give the new coalition government the benefit of the doubt and see what the spending cuts look like,” said David Rolley , who helps oversee $106 billion as co-head of global fixed-income in Boston at Loomis Sayles. “There is local institutional bid for long-dated government paper, and that’s pretty useful.” Financial Shock Investors demanded 90 basis points in extra yield to hold U.K. 10-year bonds rather than German bunds as of May 28, narrowing from a four-and-a-half-year high of 103 basis points, or 1.03 percentage points, on May 7. The 10-year gilt yielded 3.57 percent at the close of trading on May 28, after reaching a low of 3.45 percent on May 25. British securities returned 4.4 percent in 2010, beating the 3.9 percent gain for Treasuries and trailing the 6.4 percent return for bunds, according to the Merrill Lynch indexes. “The very first decision the government has made is to bring down the deficit and that’s good news,” said Axel Botte , a strategist at AXA Investment Managers in Paris who helps oversee about 500 billion euros ($615 billion). “It’s taken out some of the risk premium and after that vote of confidence, gilts are well placed compared to U.S. Treasuries and bunds.” European nations are under pressure from investors to cut debt after Greece’s budget deficit soared to 13.6 percent of gross domestic product last year, precipitating the biggest shock to world markets since the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Merkel’s Share Europe’s leaders pieced together a rescue package of almost $1 trillion amid speculation the euro area may break up. The extra fiscal obligations that German Chancellor Angela Merkel is taking on are making bunds riskier to investors relative to gilts. German lawmakers agreed to contribute as much as 148 billion euros to indebted European states. Germany’s auction last week of five-year notes drew the lowest demand since March 2008. Investors bid for 6.1 billion euros of 5.45 billion euros of securities sold, a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.1, the least since the sale of similar securities on March 26, 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The government originally planned to sell 7 billion euros. The Bundesbank was forced to retain 22 percent of the offer. ‘Avoid’ Bunds “Yields have to go higher,” Michael Markovic , a senior fixed-income strategist at Credit Suisse Group AG in Zurich, said May 27 in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “Our advice to clients is really to avoid this intermediate-to-longer segment of the German yield curve.” In the U.S., President Barack Obama is banking on measures to stimulate job growth and the economy to reduce the deficit. The White House budget office projects a record $1.55 trillion gap in the year ending Sept. 30, up almost 10 percent from last year’s $1.41 trillion. The U.K. budget gap is like a “bed of nitroglycerine,” Bill Gross , who runs the world’s biggest mutual fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said in January. He cited the nation’s debt load and the potential for currency devaluation as risks for bondholders. The coalition between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats “is a step in the right direction,” Michael Amey , Pimco’s executive vice president of U.K. fixed income, said in an interview on May 20. “But that’s just the first of a number of steps that one will need to see before gaining comfort on a longer-term outlook for the gilt market.” Schroders Is ‘Cautious’ Schroders Plc’s David Scammell said he is “cautious” on gilts because of the size of the government’s task. David Laws , the new government’s chief secretary at the Treasury until he resigned during the weekend following revelations about his parliamentary expenses, said he found a note from his predecessor, Liam Byrne , that said: “I’m afraid to tell you there’s no money left.” “If they can’t do something that is deemed to be credible, we are in danger of higher yields and a downgrade,” said Scammell, a money manager at Schroders in London, which oversees about $223 billion of assets. “At the moment the U.K. is in the good-market camp. But it’s right on the edge.” Cameron’s challenge is to maintain growth in a nation whose debt will rise to 77 percent of GDP this year and may approach 100 percent by 2014, according to Standard & Poor’s. The rating company affirmed its “negative” outlook on the U.K.’s AAA grade on March 29 “in the absence of a strong fiscal consolidation plan.” Investec Turns Bullish The U.K. prime minister promised to accelerate deficit reductions. A newly-created Office of Budget Responsibility, headed by former Treasury adviser Alan Budd , will produce new forecasts before a June 22 emergency budget. “The situation in the U.K. is salvageable,” said John Stopford , co-head of global fixed income in London for Investec Asset Management Ltd., which oversees about $65 billion. Stopford has an “overweight” position in the bonds after changing from “underweight.” That means his funds now hold a greater percentage of gilts than in the benchmark indexes he uses to measure performance. Britain’s ruling parties said May 20 they are united over the need for swift action to reduce the record shortfall. “I fully support the efforts of the chancellor of the exchequer, George Osborne , to deal with this problem urgently,” Liberal Democrat Business Secretary Vince Cable told reporters in London as the new government presented its policy program. Shared Program Osborne, a Conservative, said deficit reduction “takes precedence, and that’s very, very important.” The program commits the coalition to cutting the deficit at a faster pace than planned by the Labour government, he said. Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said May 12 he backs the bid to start cuts this year. For Standard Life Investments, the outlook for gilts has improved since before the election, when investors speculated a so-called hung parliament with no outright winner would lead to a minority government too weak to tackle the deficit. “The market has given them a bit of a thumbs up,” said Richard Batty , a global investment strategist in Edinburgh who helps to oversee Standard Life’s $175 billion. “It seems the government can work more effectively on its fiscal plan than we thought it could a few months ago.” Cameron, who called Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg a “joke” before the election, made deficit reduction a focus of his manifesto. Cable, who spoke for the Liberal Democrats on financial matters before the May 6 poll, said in April rising unemployment exposed the “folly of Tory plans to pull the rug from under the recovery” with early spending cuts. Losing ‘Patience’ Any sign of a disagreement between the two parties over the deficit strategy may send bond yields soaring, according to Ignis Asset Management. “The market could lose patience very quickly if it is disappointed by their efforts,” said Russ Oxley , head of rates in Glasgow at Ignis, which has about $100 billion of assets. “A market crisis would precipitate a downgrade.” Concern that the U.K.’s rating will be lowered is premature, said Ian Fishwick , a money manager who oversees about $3.5 billion at Fidelity International, the London-based affiliate of Fidelity Investments, the world’s biggest mutual-fund company. “The U.K. does have sufficient flexibility to deal with these problems and so long as it’s evident that they are moving in the right direction, I think the rating agencies will give the U.K. time,” he said. “The key thing that this government is going to do differently from the old government is to start tackling the deficit more quickly.” To contact the reporter on this story: Paul Dobson in London at pdobson2@bloomberg.net ; Anchalee Worrachate in London at aworrachate@bloomberg.net .

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U.S. Stocks Rise in Week as Dow Average Pares Worst May Loss Since 1940

May 29, 2010

By Whitney Kisling and Elizabeth Stanton May 29 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks rose this week, paring the biggest Dow Jones Industrial Average decline in May since 1940, after increasing consumer confidence and home sales as well as China’s commitment to maintain investments in Europe eased concern that a debt crisis is spreading. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index pared its weekly gain yesterday after Spain lost its AAA debt grade at Fitch Ratings. Sprint Nextel Corp. led the S&P 500’s advance since May 21 after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. boosted the stock’s rating. Consumer companies and material producers increased more than 1 percent this week, while Apple Inc. surpassed Microsoft Corp. as the world’s most-valuable technology company at $233.7 billion. The S&P 500 rose 0.2 percent to 1,089.41 this week. The Dow retreated 56.76 points, or 0.6 percent, to 10,136.63 — dragged down by Microsoft — and dropped below 10,000 for the first time in three months. The indexes lost 8.2 percent and 7.9 percent in May, respectively, their worst months since February 2009. “The correction in the U.S. stock market is a little bit overdone,” said David Joy , chief market strategist at Columbia Management in Boston, which oversees $341 billion. “I’ve looked at this more or less as a buying opportunity.” The rise in confidence among U.S. consumers exceeded estimates, with the Conference Board’s index rising to 63.3, the highest level in two years. The median economist forecast was 58.5 in a Bloomberg survey. Sales of previously owned American homes increased last month to the highest level in five months, according to the National Association of Realtors. ‘More Skittish’ The S&P 500 had its second-biggest daily gain this month on May 27, the day China said its $300 billion sovereign wealth fund will maintain its investments in Europe. The country’s move gave investors confidence the European crisis will be contained to the area and won’t stall global growth. The U.S. stock benchmark slid the next day, plunging 1.2 percent as Fitch Ratings cut Spain’s credit grade to AA+ from AAA, saying the debt burden is likely to weigh on economic growth. “Spain’s downgrade just makes investors more skittish,” said Cliff Remily , a money manager at Santa Fe, New Mexico-based Thornburg Investment Management, which oversees $57 billion. “There’s a risk of other countries being downgraded.” The S&P 500 has fallen 11 percent since April 23, paring its advance since sinking to a 12-year low on March 9, 2009, to 61 percent. The index fell below its average over the past 200 days earlier this month, a sign to technical analysts that selling may continue. Fewer Lost Customers Sprint climbed 16 percent to $5.13, the most in a week since November. Goldman Sachs raised the rating to “ buy” and projected fewer subscriber cancellations than in previous years for the third-largest U.S. mobile-phone carrier. Apple, the computer maker turned mobile gadgeteer , overtook Microsoft this week to become the most-valuable technology company in the world. While Apple may be able to keep adding customers for its iPhone, Macintosh computer and iPad, Goldman Sachs said investors should buy Microsoft shares because they fell too far in this month’s selloff. Apple rallied 6 percent to $256.88 this week, and Microsoft declined 3.9 percent to $25.80, pushing its monthly drop to 16 percent. Technology companies had the third- biggest weekly gain among 10 industry groups in the S&P 500. Companies that depend on discretionary spending by consumers rallied the most, with a 1.9 percent advance, led by Time Warner Cable Inc., the second- largest U.S. cable company, and Interpublic Group of Cos., which owns advertising companies. Time Warner Cable rallied 7.6 percent to $54.73, while Interpublic advanced 7.5 percent to $8.35 after repurchasing preferred stock. Drilling Restrictions Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc. , Baker Hughes Inc. and Schlumberger Ltd. fell more than 6.8 percent, posting three of the five biggest losses in the S&P 500 this week. U.S. President Barack Obama boosted hurdles to deep-water drilling by suspending some explorations and operations and canceling some pending leases ales. Moody’s Corp. lost 6.9 percent to $20.50. David Einhorn , said at a conference this week that he is still betting against the debt-rating company. He is the founder of hedge-fund operator Greenlight Capital Inc., which has about $6.8 billion in assets. The VIX ended the week below 40 — a level it’s closed above 3.1 percent of the time since 1990 — falling 20 percent to 32.07. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index , as it’s officially called, jumped as high as 45.79 this month, more than double its level on April 30. Higher readings indicate investors are paying more for 30-day insurance against declines in the S&P 500. To contact the reporters on this story: Whitney Kisling in New York at wkisling@bloomberg.net ; Elizabeth Stanton in New York at estanton@bloomberg.net .

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Euro Falls, Heads For Monthly Loss, on Concerns About European Debt Crisis

May 29, 2010

By Mary Childs and Ben Levisohn May 29 (Bloomberg) — The euro declined, headed for a sixth monthly loss against the dollar, amid concerns European measures to reduce fiscal deficits and contain the region’s sovereign debt crisis will undermine the global recovery. The 16-nation currency erased last week’s gain against the greenback as Fitch Ratings yesterday stripped Spain of its AAA credit grade, saying the nation’s debt burden is likely to weigh on economic growth. European leaders announced on May 10 an almost $1 trillion package to backstop the region’s debt crisis. The dollar gained against the yen before a report next week forecast to show the U.S. economy added 508,000 jobs in May. “The crux, core problem is incredible indebtedness in the peripheral countries” of Europe, said Win Thin , senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York. The European aid package “just kicks the can down the road. Any rally we’ve seen in the euro has been short term. We’re in a multi-year bear market.” The euro declined 2.4 percent this week to $1.2273 from $1.2570 on May 21, after gaining 1.7 percent. The common currency has declined 7.7 percent in May, and is on track for the longest monthly losing streak since April 2000. It fell 1.2 percent over the past five days to 111.77 yen, from 113.13. The dollar gained 1.2 percent against the yen to 91.93, from 90. Fitch cut Spain’s grade one step to AA+ and assigned it a “stable” outlook, according to a statement from London. Spain has held the top rating since 2003. Budget Cuts The downgrade “reflects Fitch’s assessment that the process of adjustment to a lower level of private sector and external indebtedness will materially reduce the rate of growth of the Spanish economy over the medium term,” according to the rating company. Spain’s parliament on May 27 approved the country’s deepest budget cuts in 30 years by a single vote, casting doubt on the future of the government as Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero seeks to garner support for his 2011 budget. Spain has the third-largest budget deficit in the euro region. Greek unions called strikes earlier this month to protest against austerity measures agreed to by Prime Minister George Papandreou in return for the bailout from the euro region and the International Monetary Fund. “People are still fundamentally bearish longer term on the euro,” said Carl Forcheski , a director on the corporate currency sales desk at Societe Generale SA in New York. “The market has not been thrilled with how the crisis has been handled. There is still a threat that the economic recovery could be derailed.” Naked Short-Selling The Australian dollar declined 11.1 percent in May to 77.17 yen and Mexico’s peso fell 7.8 percent to 7.027 yen as concerns that global growth was slowing spurred investors to reduce carry trades, in which they borrow money in countries with low interest rates to invest in higher-yielding assets. Japan’s benchmark lending rate of 0.1 percent makes the yen a popular choice for funding such trades. In an effort to calm the region’s financial markets, German regulator BaFin issued a ban against naked short-selling and speculation on euro-area government debt with credit default swaps that took effect on May 19 and lasts until March 31, 2011. Germany has been unable to persuade other nations to follow its prohibition, which also applies to shares of 10 banks and insurers. The euro slid that day to a four-year low of $1.2144. ‘The European Situation’ “One factor weighing on the euro is a lack of coordination between its members,” said Lee Hardman , a foreign-exchange strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in London. “The markets are losing confidence in euro zone leaders and their ability to navigate their way through the crisis.” Group of 20 finance ministers may discuss the effect of the European sovereign debt crisis on currencies at next week’s meeting in South Korea, Japanese Finance Minister Naoto Kan said. “Some nations may have an interest in discussing currencies,” Kan said at a news conference in Tokyo yesterday. “Discussion of the impact of the European situation on currencies will be on the main agenda,” as well as financial regulation and developments in the global economy, he said. Europe’s currency has slumped 8 percent this year against its major counterparts, according to Bloomberg Correlation- Weighted Currency Indices, weakening on concern rising government budget deficits will lead to defaults and an eventual breakup of the euro region. The dollar has appreciated 9.31 percent, while the yen advanced 12.1 percent. Morgan Stanley on May 27 lowered its year-end forecast for the euro to $1.16 from $1.24 on concern the sovereign-debt crisis in Greece is now a European one. “The initial fiscal problem in the periphery (Greece) has now become a fiscal problem for core Europe,” Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Hull in London wrote in a report. “More importantly for the euro, it has also undermined the credibility” of the European Central Bank. The ECB said on May 10 it would start buying public- and private-sector debt as part of a bid to halt the fiscal crisis and rescue the euro, an action that it had previously said it wasn’t considering. To contact the reporter on this story: Mary Childs in New York at mchilds5@bloomberg.net Ben Levisohn in New York at blevisohn@bloomberg.net .

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Spain Loses AAA Rating at Fitch Amid Deficit Crisis

May 28, 2010

By Esteban Duarte and Emma Ross-Thomas May 28 (Bloomberg) — Spain lost its AAA credit grade at Fitch Ratings amid a fiscal crisis that prompted the European Union to forge an almost $1 trillion bailout package for the region’s weakest economies. The ratings company cut the grade one step to AA+ and assigned it a “stable” outlook, according to a statement from London today. Spain has held the top rating at Fitch since 2003. Standard & Poor’s lowered Spain’s ratings to AA on April 28. “The process of adjustment to a lower level of private sector and external indebtedness will materially reduce the rate of growth of the Spanish economy over the medium-term,” Brian Coulton , Fitch’s head of Europe, Middle East and Africa sovereign ratings in London, said in the statement. Spain is struggling to cut the euro region’s third-largest budget deficit as the economy, still reeling from the collapse of a debt-fueled construction boom, is expected to contract for a second full year. Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero , who has angered traditional allies by cutting public wages and freezing pensions, has failed to convince investors he can put the finances back in order as borrowing costs continue to surge. U.S. stocks extended losses after Fitch’s announcement, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index sliding 1.2 percent to close at 1,089.41. The euro weakened 0.7 percent to $1.2271 at 4:08 p.m. in New York. ‘Still a High Rating’ “I would like to emphasize that it’s still a high rating,” Soledad Nunez , the director of Spain’s Treasury, said in a telephone interview. “The agency recognizes that public finances are strong and the government’s commitment to fiscal reform.” The Treasury, which faces a 16.2 billion-euro bond redemption in July, has completed about 40 percent of its funding program for this year, Nunez said. The extra yield investors demand to hold Spanish 10-year bonds rather than German equivalents rose to 153 basis points today from 152 basis points yesterday. The spread compares with an average of 23 basis points over the last decade and is just 10 basis points below the level before the EU created a financial backstop for the weakest euro members. That facility, providing as much as 750 billion euros ($925 billion), was created on May 10 and coincided with the European Central Bank’s announcement that it would start buying government bonds. Deeper Cuts In return, Spain agreed to deeper spending cuts that would slash the deficit to 6 percent of gross domestic product in 2011 from 11.2 percent last year. Parliament approved those measures yesterday by a single vote, signaling Zapatero may struggle to achieve support for the 2011 budget. “The Spanish government had been in denial from 2008 to early 2010 about the magnitude of the crisis so now you have consequences,” said Raphael Gallardo , who helps manage 500 billion euros ($615 billion) as chief economist at Axa Investment Managers in Paris. “Now with the acceleration of austerity measures, like the shocking cut to civil servant wages, they finally got real and measured the severity of the crisis.” The austerity program, which won applause from the International Monetary Fund, will undermine the recovery, Finance Minister Elena Salgado said on May 20 as she cut her forecast for Spanish growth next year to 1.3 percent from 1.8 percent. The government predicts a 0.3 percent contraction this year. Fitch’s move follows Standard & Poor’s decision to cut its rating on Spain twice since the start of 2009. Moody’s Investors Service retains an Aaa rating. Spain’s debt burden as a proportion of GDP was 53 percent last year, lower than Germany, France and the euro-region average. To contact the reporter on this story: Emma Ross-Thomas in Madrid at erossthomas@bloomberg.net

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Richard Alarcón: Financial Reform: The Collective Power of Local Government vs. Big Banks

May 24, 2010

Across the United States, newspaper headlines lead with stories about financial reform. Members of Congress want to better regulate Wall Street and to take on the fat cats at the big banks, with their golden parachutes and big bonuses, who took our hard-earned tax dollars in the form of a federal bailout, despite the fact that they got us in to this mess in the first place. And Congress is right to take on the big banks – reform at the national level is long overdue and obviously needed. But in the hubbub that is the national overhaul, the seeds of this reform, the work done at the state and local level, cannot be overlooked nor can we let up on this work. True reform of our banking and financial systems will take pressure and action at every level and across the nation. Americans are fed up with billionaires who are bilking us for all we are worth, making the middle class the biggest losers. Our friends and neighbors have lost their homes, found out that the pensions or retirement savings they worked for are gone and are struggling to find work in the worst economy of our lifetimes. In the meantime, Wall Street is back to business as usual, posting new profits, while those on the other side of the deals have lost their homes, their jobs, and their retirement savings. With all of the anger and distrust of Wall Street, we have hit a place where we are ready for a basic cultural shift – one that turns away from looking at our investments and banking solely on the basis of short-term profits, and toward the production of true long-term growth: by investing our funds in economic growth opportunities that directly impact our communities. We cannot let this historic opportunity pass us by. We must channel our inner Howard Beale and scream from our windows, “I’m mad as Hell, and I’m not going to take it anymore” – our outrage must be heard, not just in words but in action. At the City level, leveraging this cultural shift means investing our money in banks that are helping grow Main Street by offering small business loans, working with homeowners to renegotiate mortgages when they’re faced with foreclosure, and opening up bank branches and the cycle of credit in under-served areas, by creating local versions of the Community Reinvestment Act standards. After all, what good does it do Los Angeles if the banks in which the bulk of our tax dollars sit in are reinvested in another City, far away? That’s why the Los Angeles City Council unanimously supported my proposal to create Responsible Banking Standards in Los Angeles , based on a Philadelphia model put in place in 2002. Los Angeles alone has a cash and pension portfolio of over twenty-five billion dollars, which allows us to leverage these investments in such a way to benefit the residents of our city – not just through the rate of return, but by looking at how the banks and financial institutions reinvest in our community. The ordinance will require that any bank looking to do business with Los Angeles would have to submit a report to the City Treasurer who, in turn, would grade the banks based on their investments in Los Angeles. And we’re not the only ones – cities including Boston, Carson, Charlotte, Dallas, Denver, Independence, Muskegon and Watsonville are all looking into creating similar standards for Responsible Banking. And this week, Boston City Councilor Felix Arroyo is hosting a Council hearing to examine how the Boston City Council can hold big banks accountable in their city. The States of California, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Mexico, Ohio and Washington are also all considering or have implemented sweeping financial reforms, including looking at the creation of State-run banks or investing only in State-chartered banks. The anger is palatable and the time for reform is now. We’ve lost our trust in the banks that took our bailout money, and let hundreds of thousands of homes fall into foreclosure. We’ve lost our trust in Wall Street, where companies gained enormous profits, betting on the demise of investments. We’ve lost trust in the rating agencies, when 93% of the subprime-mortgage-backed securities issued in 2006 for which they gave AAA ratings are now “junk” status. The only way that trust is going to be restored is with sweeping reform. That’s why Congress must pass substantive financial reform, so that Americans can begin to believe again. But at the same time, reform – just as powerful – must come from the cities and states. Collectively, our leverage is enormous. I introduced a resolution at the National League of Cities in support of local reform, because I know the power we could have if we banded together. Local and state officials know the pain of our constituents, and know the benefit that can be derived from holding banks and financial institutions more accountable. The notion that we can create real change is not just pie in the sky. The City of Philadelphia has had their policy in place since 2002, which has resulted in increased consumer and small business lending to historically under-served areas of that city. And on April 16, Massachusetts State Treasurer Timothy Cahill announced that the State of Massachusetts will begin divesting $243 million in taxpayer dollars from three of the nation’s largest banks – Bank of America, Citibank, and Wells Fargo. The decision came after the banks were asked, and refused, to voluntarily comply with an 18% interest rate cap on credit cards and other consumer borrowing for Massachusetts residents. The cap, which is required of all Massachusetts state-chartered banks, does not apply to federally-chartered banks. These actions are just the beginning of our cultural shift. More Cities and states are needed to create real pressure on the banks. I urge every City to create standards for how tax-payer dollars are invested and find ways to ensure that the dollars are going to banks and financial institutions that are behaving well. Shouting may not get what we want – but you can bet that billions and billions of dollars taken elsewhere will get banks’ attention. We are mad as Hell – and we don’t have to take it any more.

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Ford to Invest $135 Million, Add 220 Jobs in Michigan in Electric-Car Push

May 24, 2010

By Keith Naughton May 24 (Bloomberg) — Ford Motor Co. , working to make a quarter of its vehicles run at least partly on electricity, plans to invest $135 million and add 220 jobs at three Michigan facilities to help it introduce five such models by 2012. About 50 engineers will be hired for a research and development center to be created in the Detroit area, John Stoll , a Ford spokesman, said today in an interview. Ford plans to add 170 production workers at two Michigan plants, he said. Ford has said it will begin selling two electric vehicles and three new hybrids by 2012 and that such models will constitute 10 percent to 25 percent of its worldwide fleet in a decade. Automakers are developing models powered entirely or in part by electricity to meet U.S. fuel-economy standards. “Ford has been at the forefront of layering this new technology into their vehicles,” Michael Robinet , an auto- industry analyst with CSM Worldwide in Northville, Michigan, said in a telephone interview. “It’s been an incremental strategy, but one that’s well thought-out and bodes well for their future.” Ford fell 25 cents, or 2.2 percent, to $11.01 at 4 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading . The shares have gained 10 percent this year. Hybrid Sales Sales of the four hybrids Ford now offers are up 55 percent this year, according to researcher Autodata Corp. of Woodcliff Lake, New Jersey. Hybrids made up 1.6 percent of Ford’s U.S. light-vehicle sales through April, up from 1.4 percent in 2009. Ford plans to introduce a gasoline-electric version of its Lincoln MKZ sedan, the brand’s best-selling model, this year. The company also is rolling out electric versions of the Transit Connect van this year and Focus small car in 2011 in the U.S. The electric models will come out 6 months to 12 months later in Europe, Ford said. For hybrid sales to gain, gas prices must rise and governments must provide incentives to consumers, Mark Fields , Ford’s president of the Americas, told reporters after an announcement at a factory in Ypsilanti, Michigan. The plant will get 40 new positions to build hybrid and electric-car batteries. “Sales of hybrids always depend on the price of a gallon of gas when folks roll up to the pump,” Fields said. “Our view is that gas prices will continue to rise.” U.S. rules require an average companywide fuel economy rating of 35.5 miles per gallon in 2016, up from 25 mpg now. Ford has eliminated 47 percent of its North American workforce since 2006, and had 70,000 workers in the region at the end of the first quarter. The company has cut costs and overhauled its model lineup to become less dependent on sport- utility vehicles and pickup trucks. More Hiring There is a “high probability” Ford will hire new workers at the two Michigan factories making parts for electric vehicles beginning in 2012, Fields said. Those new workers would make $14 an hour, half of what workers now make, he said. “We’ve got to work the process, but at the end of the day, we’ll probably see some hiring,” Fields said. Ford is adding about 1,500 positions this year at plants in Chicago and Wayne, Michigan, while laying off 900 workers at a Mustang factory in Flat Rock, Michigan. Ford now has about 450 workers on indefinite layoff, Fields said. That number could grow to 900 once the Mustang factory ends its second shift in July, said Marcey Evans , a Ford spokeswoman. The automaker ended three years of losses with a $2.7 billion profit last year as the U.S. auto market fell to the lowest level in 27 years. To contact the reporter on this story: Keith Naughton in Southfield, Michigan, at Knaughton3@bloomberg.net .

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New Financial Rules Might Not Prevent The Next Crisis

May 23, 2010

WASHINGTON — The most sweeping changes to financial rules since the Great Depression might not prevent another crisis. Experts say the financial regulatory bill approved by the Senate last week, and a similar bill that passed the House, include loopholes and gaps that weaken their impact. Many provisions depend on the effectiveness of regulatory agencies – the same agencies that failed to foresee the last crisis. A big reason for the bill’s limitations is that banks and industry groups lobbied against rules they felt would reduce their profit-making ability. The financial sector’s influence in Washington reflects its enormous donations and lobbying. Over the past two decades, it’s given $2.3 billion to federal candidates. It’s outdone every other industry in lobbying since 1998, having spent $3.8 billion. Here’s how the bills, which must be reconciled and approved by the full Congress, might address some causes of the financial crisis, and some of the bill’s perceived weaknesses: _ Derivatives: The problem: Banks used these investments to make speculative bets that helped inflate the housing market. Once home values crashed, these derivatives – and related side bets – magnified the financial crisis. The value of a derivative depends on the price of an underlying investment. Examples include corn futures, stock options and mortgages. The solution: The legislation would, among other things, require that many derivatives be traded on exchanges, as stocks are, so they are visible to regulators. Why it might not work: Business groups led by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Business Roundtable lobbied successfully to dilute the rules. They argued that exchange-trading would make it too costly for companies other than banks to use derivatives. The bill exempts companies that use derivatives to reduce the risk of fluctuations in interest rates and commodity prices. Experts say this exception could be exploited. Companies could, for example, find ways to combine traditional business activities with purely financial investment through the use of derivatives. _ Weak regulation of banks and other financial firms: The problem: Before the crisis, some regulators failed to recognize risks taken by banks they were supposed to oversee. Some companies sidestepped oversight entirely. The solution: The legislation would eliminate one regulator, the Office of Thrift Supervision, criticized for lax oversight. And it would tighten oversight of large financial institutions that could threaten the system. Why it might not work: Smaller banks could still choose their own regulator. These banks would likely seek out the most lenient oversight. Key advocates for that loophole were the Independent Community Bankers of America and the American Bankers Association. The Senate voted against capping how much banks can bet relative to their reserves. It left that up to the same regulators who failed to properly monitor banks’ risk-taking before the crisis. One reason the system of regulators escaped more drastic changes, lawmakers say, was that regulators lobbied to protect their agencies’ authorities. For example, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair fought changes that could limit the FDIC’s authority. _ Too-big-to-fail institutions: The problem: After bad bets on housing and other risky investments caused the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the government pumped billions into the largest banks to keep the system afloat. The solution: The overhaul would let regulators close banks whose collapse could threaten the system. Why it might not work: The Senate bill lets regulators decide whether to protect the creditors of failed banks. Creditors might take a too-rosy view of a banks’ finances if they feel they have nothing to lose in a failure. They might still lend to weak banks and raise the cost of eventually closing them down. The bill does little to prevent big banks from getting bigger, meaning taxpayers might have to intervene again. A Democratic amendment to limit the size of banks was rejected amid opposition from banks such as Goldman Sachs. _ Consumer protection The problem: Risky lending to homeowners who couldn’t pay helped inflate the housing bubble. Some of the worst offenders were nonbank lenders. The solution: A new consumer protection watchdog would police banking products and ban those deemed too risky – no matter who offers them. Why it might not work: The consumer watchdog’s authority would be confined to firms with at least $10 billion in assets. Thousands of community banks wouldn’t be supervised by the agency. Nor would many nonbanks. The Chamber of Commerce has led the push to limit the reach of the consumer agency. The payday lending industry and the National Automobile Dealers Association have joined the effort. _ Credit rating agencies The problem: Credit rating agencies gave safe ratings to high-risk mortgage investments that later imploded. The solution: The Senate bill would end banks’ ability to choose the agencies that rate their investments. An independent board, appointed by regulators, would choose the rating firms. Why it might not work: The big firms – Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s Corp. and Fitch Ratings – would still be paid by the banks whose products they rate. That means the ratings could be influenced by those banks. Others have questioned whether regulators should choose which agencies rate which financial products. Regulators themselves missed warning signs leading to the crisis. ____ Jacobs reported from New York. Associated Press Writer Jim Drinkard contributed to this report.

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Ford Said to Add About 40 Jobs at Michigan Factory for Electric Vehicles

May 22, 2010

By Keith Naughton May 22 (Bloomberg) — Ford Motor Co. , working to electrify a quarter of its lineup, is adding about 40 jobs to a factory in Michigan as part of a plan to introduce four such models by 2012, two people familiar with the plan said yesterday. Mark Fields , the automaker’s president of the Americas, plans to announce the jobs and the next stage of Ford’s electric-vehicle strategy in a ceremony May 24 at an engine factory in Ypsilanti, Michigan, said the people, who asked to not be identified disclosing details prior to the announcement. Ford has cut almost half of its North American jobs since 2006. Ford will begin selling two electric vehicles and two new hybrids by 2012 and expects such models to be 10 percent to 25 percent of its worldwide fleet in a decade, the Dearborn, Michigan-based automaker has said. Automakers are developing models powered all or in part by electricity to meet U.S. government fuel-economy standards. “Ford has a good pedigree in electric vehicles,” Michael Robinet , an auto-industry analyst with CSM Worldwide in Northville, Michigan, said in a telephone interview. “Ford’s been at the forefront of layering in this new technology. It bodes well for their future.” Also at the ceremony will be Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm , a Democrat, and Bob King , nominated as the next president of the United Auto Workers union, Ford said in a media advisory. “All I know is it’s another good-news event,” Liz Boyd , a spokeswoman for Granholm, said in an e-mail. John Stoll, a Ford spokesman, declined to comment. Hybrid Models Ford now sells four hybrid models and plans to introduce a gasoline-electric version of its Lincoln MKZ sedan, the brand’s best-selling model, this year. It also is rolling out in the U.S. electric versions of the Transit Connect van this year and Focus small car in 2011. The electric models will come out 6 to 12 months later in Europe, Ford said. U.S. rules require an average companywide fuel economy rating of 35.5 miles per gallon in 2016, up from 25 mpg now. Ford has eliminated 47 percent of its North American workforce since 2006, bringing the total to 70,000 by the end of the first quarter. It has cut costs and overhauled its model lineup to become less dependent on sport-utility vehicles and pickups. The automaker ended three years of losses to post a $2.7 billion net profit last year as the U.S. auto market fell to its lowest level in 27 years. Its U.S. sales are up 33 percent this year on models such as the Fusion hybrid. Ford rose 46 cents, or 4.3 percent, to $11.26 yesterday in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares have risen 12.6 percent this year. To contact the reporter on this story: Keith Naughton in Southfield, Michigan, at Knaughton3@bloomberg.net .

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Ford Said to Add About 40 Jobs at Michigan Factory for Electric Vehicles

May 22, 2010

By Keith Naughton May 22 (Bloomberg) — Ford Motor Co. , working to electrify a quarter of its lineup, is adding about 40 jobs to a factory in Michigan as part of a plan to introduce four such models by 2012, two people familiar with the plan said yesterday. Mark Fields , the automaker’s president of the Americas, plans to announce the jobs and the next stage of Ford’s electric-vehicle strategy in a ceremony May 24 at an engine factory in Ypsilanti, Michigan, said the people, who asked to not be identified disclosing details prior to the announcement. Ford has cut almost half of its North American jobs since 2006. Ford will begin selling two electric vehicles and two new hybrids by 2012 and expects such models to be 10 percent to 25 percent of its worldwide fleet in a decade, the Dearborn, Michigan-based automaker has said. Automakers are developing models powered all or in part by electricity to meet U.S. government fuel-economy standards. “Ford has a good pedigree in electric vehicles,” Michael Robinet , an auto-industry analyst with CSM Worldwide in Northville, Michigan, said in a telephone interview. “Ford’s been at the forefront of layering in this new technology. It bodes well for their future.” Also at the ceremony will be Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm , a Democrat, and Bob King , nominated as the next president of the United Auto Workers union, Ford said in a media advisory. “All I know is it’s another good-news event,” Liz Boyd , a spokeswoman for Granholm, said in an e-mail. John Stoll, a Ford spokesman, declined to comment. Hybrid Models Ford now sells four hybrid models and plans to introduce a gasoline-electric version of its Lincoln MKZ sedan, the brand’s best-selling model, this year. It also is rolling out in the U.S. electric versions of the Transit Connect van this year and Focus small car in 2011. The electric models will come out 6 to 12 months later in Europe, Ford said. U.S. rules require an average companywide fuel economy rating of 35.5 miles per gallon in 2016, up from 25 mpg now. Ford has eliminated 47 percent of its North American workforce since 2006, bringing the total to 70,000 by the end of the first quarter. It has cut costs and overhauled its model lineup to become less dependent on sport-utility vehicles and pickups. The automaker ended three years of losses to post a $2.7 billion net profit last year as the U.S. auto market fell to its lowest level in 27 years. Its U.S. sales are up 33 percent this year on models such as the Fusion hybrid. Ford rose 46 cents, or 4.3 percent, to $11.26 yesterday in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares have risen 12.6 percent this year. To contact the reporter on this story: Keith Naughton in Southfield, Michigan, at Knaughton3@bloomberg.net .

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Whitworth Said to Almost Double Deere Stake, May Push for Bigger Dividend

May 21, 2010

By Miles Weiss May 21 (Bloomberg) — Ralph Whitworth , the activist investor, increased his stake in Deere & Co. and may lobby the biggest farm-equipment maker to raise its dividend or resume stock repurchases, said a person with knowledge of the matter. Relational Investors LLC, cofounded by Whitworth and David Batchelder after they worked for billionaire oilman T. Boone Pickens , has almost doubled its Deere stake to 1.2 percent of shares outstanding since March 31, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the firm hasn’t disclosed its plan. Principals of San Diego-based Relational plan to meet with Deere management to discuss the best use of future profits. Deere said May 19 that earnings in the second quarter ended April 30 rose 16 percent, helped by the U.S. economy’s recovery, and raised its profit and sales forecasts for the second time this year. Relational may have difficulty gaining support from other shareholders, said analyst Stephen Volkmann of Jefferies & Co., because investors already give the Moline, Illinois-based company top marks for investing capital efficiently. “This is a bit of a head-scratcher, other than somebody drooling over their cash,” said Volkmann, who is based in New York. “You could argue that the balance sheet is cash-heavy and could be used for something else, like a big share repurchase.” Volkmann, who recommends buying Deere stock and currently holds no shares, said the company’s net debt is essentially zero. The optimal debt level for most industrial companies is 30 percent of capitalization, Volkmann added. Deere began stockpiling cash during the 2008 credit crunch, forgoing dividend increases and halting its share-buyback program. Management wanted to build enough reserves to repay any debt coming due over the ensuing 12 months at its credit unit, which finances customer equipment purchases, Volkmann said. Credit Rating The company’s cash and easy-to-sell securities fell to $3.8 billion in the quarter ended April 30 from $5.2 billion three months earlier, as Deere used funds to repay debt. James Field , Deere’s chief financial officer, said during a May 19 conference call with investors that the primary goal of Deere’s cash policy is to maintain the company’s ‘A’ credit rating and make adequate reinvestments to maintain its competitive edge. Once these priorities are satisfied, Field said, the company will look at “modestly increasing” its dividend and explore repurchases “from time to time.” Kenneth Golden , a Deere spokesman, declined to comment, saying the company doesn’t discuss its shareholders. Sandi Christian, Relational’s director of marketing, said Whitworth wasn’t immediately available to comment. 5 Million Shares Relational held 2.74 million shares with a market value of almost $163 million as of March 31, according to documents the firm filed this month with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The firm has almost doubled its stake to 5 million shares since then, according to the person familiar with the move. Deere’s largest institutional shareholder is Wellington Management Co., a Boston-based mutual fund company that held 16.5 million company shares at March 31, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Capital World Investors, a Los Angeles- based adviser to the American Funds, was second with 16.4 million shares. Relational, which oversees about $6.5 billion in assets, previously sought to influence the use of capital at holdings including Home Depot Inc. , the world’s largest home-improvement retailer. After Relational threatened to start a proxy fight for board seats, the Atlanta-based company appointed Batchelder to its board in February 2007, sold its contractor-supplies unit six months later for $8.5 billion and used the proceeds to help fund a $22.5 billion stock-repurchase plan. Writedown Whitworth concluded that Deere has made poor use of profits in some instances, leading to a lower stock-market valuation, said the person with knowledge of his plan. The stock has gained 7.8 percent this year, giving it a market capitalization of $24.8 billion, compared with the decline of 2.8 percent by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. In the quarter ended Oct. 31, Deere booked a $274 million after-tax writedown of the value of a landscaping unit. In February, Deere said it would review options for a wind-energy unit it has spent $1 billion developing in the past five years. Relational wants Deere to examine whether profits would be better invested in its core manufacturing operations or returned to stockholders through buybacks and increased dividends, the person said. Deere bought back almost $3.2 billion of stock during fiscal 2007 and 2008 before halting the repurchases last year, when management decided to amass cash. As of Jan. 31, Deere had authorization to buy back 114 million shares, according to its most recent quarterly report. Dividend Yield Deere’s dividend yield is 1.91 percent, compared with a combined 2.0 percent for stocks in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. Caterpillar Inc. , the Peoria, Illinois-based manufacturer of construction equipment that competes with Deere, pays a dividend yielding about 2.79 percent. Whitworth and Batchelder founded Relational in 1996 with an initial allocation of $200 million from the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, the nation’s largest public pension fund. Calpers has $1.5 billion invested with Relational, whose annualized returns have exceeded those of the S&P 500 Index by nine percentage points since inception, according to the person familiar with Relational. To contact the reporter responsible for this story: Miles Weiss in Washington at mweiss@bloomberg.net

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Peso, Philippine Debt Set for Best Week in ’10; Polls Boost Rating Outlook

May 13, 2010

By Clarissa Batino May 14 (Bloomberg) — The Philippine peso and 10-year benchmark dollar bonds are headed for their best week this year on optimism the nation’s debt ratings will be raised following the election of a new president. The nation may get a higher rating after the success of its first automated voting “as campaign pledges are translated into policies,” Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo said this week. The cost of protecting the sovereign’s debt from default declined the most this year after Moody’s Investors Service said presidential aspirant Benigno Aquino’s apparent victory “sets a favorable tone for the country’s fundamentals.” “The market is riding on the euphoria of the elections and the possibility of an upgrade once the new administration firms up its plans on fiscal consolidation,” said Roland Avante , a treasurer at Sterling Bank of Asia in Manila. “The tone is generally optimistic, with waves of risk aversion, depending on external developments.” The peso rose 1.5 percent this week to 44.870 per dollar as of 10:54 a.m. in Manila, its biggest weekly gain since the five- days ended Dec. 4, according to Tullett Prebon Plc. It closed at 44.81 yesterday. That was the third-best performance in Asia excluding Japan this week. Aquino leads former President Joseph Estrada 42 percent to 27 percent in the latest unofficial tally of 90 percent of voting precincts, according to accredited poll monitor Parish Pastoral Council for Responsible Voting. Bond Yields The yield on the 6.5 percent dollar-denominated bond due January 2020 fell 27.2 basis points this week to 5.266 percent, according to prices from ING Groep NV. That was the biggest weekly drop since September. The cost of protecting Philippine bonds from default dropped 38.2 basis points to 162.5 points, according to prices from HSBC Holdings Plc. Moody’s Investors Service raised the Philippines’s foreign- currency debt rating in July to Ba3, the first upgrade since 1997. That is three levels below investment grade, the same as Vietnam and five grades lower than Thailand. Fitch Ratings rates Philippine debt BB, two levels below investment grade. S&P has a BB- rating, three levels below investment grade. “A clear-cut triumph would remove the undercurrents of political illegitimacy that had accompanied the incumbent administration of Gloria Arroyo and had hamstrung its policy agenda,” Moody’s Assistant Vice President Christian de Guzman said in a May 12 statement. The yield on the 6.25 percent local-currency note due in January 2014 slid 15 basis points from last week, the biggest weekly drop since October, to 5.9 percent, according to Tradition Financial Services. The rate slipped to 5.891 percent yesterday, the lowest level since April 26. To contact the reporters for this story: Clarissa Batino in Manila at cbatino@bloomberg.net .

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Turkey Buoying Greece Becomes National Bank Strategy With Surging Istanbul

May 9, 2010

By Niklas Magnusson and Mark Bentley May 10 (Bloomberg) — Greece’s biggest bank is relying on Turkey to pull it through an economic crisis at home. National Bank of Greece SA plans to open 75 branches from Ankara to Izmir this year to benefit from Turkish economic growth that is forecast to reach 5.2 percent. National Bank earned more last year at its Istanbul-based Finansbank AS unit than it did in Greece. The ascent of Turkey, a nation of 72 million straddling Europe and Asia, stands in counterpoint to the decline of Greece, its centuries-old adversary. The Turkish economy is forecast to expand faster this year than any in the European Union, the 27-nation bloc that has refused to admit Turkey in part because of Greek opposition. “There is an ironic element to this, because Turkey used to be seen as a very problematic banking system,” said Ioannis N. Grigoriadis, an assistant professor at Bilkent University’s Department of Political Science in Ankara. “With the benefit of hindsight, Finansbank has been a very successful investment. It appears it’s the most solid leg of National Bank right now.” National Bank has spent more than $5 billion since 2006 to acquire Finansbank. The Athens-based company earned 425 million euros ($540 million) in Turkey last year, more than the 398 million euros it made in Greece. The gap may widen as the Greek economy shrinks under austerity measures aimed at reducing the budget deficit, which reached 13.6 percent of gross domestic product in 2009. ‘Big Cushion’ The government agreed to cuts amounting to 13 percent of GDP as part of an unprecedented 110 billion-euro bailout from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, estimates Greek GDP will shrink about 4 percent this year and 2.6 percent in 2011. “Our international operations will provide a big cushion for us,” said Paul Mylonas , chief economist and chief of strategy at National Bank in Athens. He predicts lending to expand more than 20 percent in Turkey this year and expects National Bank to grow even more. Turkey emerged from a banking crisis of its own at the beginning of the last decade. Since then, it’s recapitalized the banks, reduced inflation to 10.2 percent from more than 30 percent in 2002, cut state debt and opened the industry to international competitors, including National Bank and Athens- based EFG Eurobank Ergasias SA . ‘Challenge’ to Growth National Bank’s expectations for Turkish growth may be thwarted by local lenders also bent on expansion. Intensifying competition may curb revenue growth for the banking industry this year and prove “a big challenge” for all lenders, including Finansbank, said Haluk Akdogan , an analyst at ING Groep NV in London. “Competition will increase in Turkey, but that is to be expected and is a healthy sign of growth,” said National Bank’s Mylonas. “As in all emerging markets, the large margins will narrow over time.” Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS , in which General Electric Co. holds a 21 percent stake, reported revenue growth of 49 percent last year. Profit rose 69 percent and it opened 46 new branches in the fourth quarter, bringing the total to almost 800 outlets. Turkey’s banking industry is “much better regulated and supervised, and we’re highly capitalized” relative to Greek lenders, said Tolga Egemen , deputy chief executive officer of Garanti in Istanbul. “It’s difficult to make money in Greece from real banking.” Competitiveness, Corruption National Bank’s reliance on Turkey shows how the tables are turning for the countries, which fought four major wars since Greece won independence from the Ottoman Empire in the 19th century. Greece’s credit rating was cut below investment grade by Standard & Poor’s on April 27, with a negative outlook. Turkey is rated one step lower, with a positive outlook, meaning the rating is more likely to rise than fall. Turkey ranks 61st on the World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Report of 133 nations, ahead of Greece in 71st place and in front of EU members Romania, Latvia and Bulgaria. Berlin-based Transparency International’s 2009 Corruption Perceptions Index places Greece 71st, tied with Bulgaria and Romania. Turkey is ranked 61st, ahead of Italy. Greece’s four largest banks saw their combined profit drop 41 percent last year after an increase in customer defaults pushed up credit provisions. National Bank and Piraeus Bank SA , the fourth-largest Greek bank, posted a loss in the fourth quarter. Turkish banks increased profit by almost 50 percent as lending margins widened, outweighing an 82 percent jump in bad loan provisions, Fitch Ratings analyst Levent Topcu said. This will be a “more balanced year” as margins narrow and loan losses decrease, leaving profit lower than last year and higher than in 2008, Topcu said. ‘Straightforward’ Funding “Our view of Turkish banks is on the positive side,” said Topcu. “They’re funded by straightforward, plain customer deposits. They don’t have fancy funding or leveraged products, are not subject to wholesale funding and don’t issue any bonds, which makes them more immune than the banks facing big funding problems.” National Bank has a capital adequacy ratio of 11.3 percent, compared with Garanti’s 19.2 percent and Istanbul-based Turkiye Is Bankasi AS ’s 18.3 percent. National Bank is valued at 6.3 billion euros, less than half Akbank TAS , Turkey’s biggest publicly traded bank, which is valued at 27.8 billion liras ($17.8 billion). National Bank is also valued at less than three other Turkish banks whose shares trade on the Istanbul Stock Exchange, including Garanti, after the stock fell 43 percent this year in Athens trading. What used to be a benefit for Finansbank , ownership by Greece’s largest lender, may be turning into a liability relative to Turkish peers when it comes to funding costs. “Finansbank could borrow at equal or cheaper costs than other Turkish banks because of National Bank six months ago,” Akdogan said. “Now that’s reversed and Finansbank’s cost of borrowing will be similar if not more.” To contact the reporters on this story: Niklas Magnusson in Stockholm at nmagnusson1@bloomberg.net ; Mark Bentley in Istanbul at mbentley3@bloomberg.net

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Pound Rally Supports Cameron Victory as U.K. Polls Suggest Hung Parliament

May 4, 2010

By Paul Dobson May 5 (Bloomberg) — The U.K. pound is strengthening against its most-active counterparts and gilts are rebounding as polls show David Cameron ’s Conservative Party may come closest to winning tomorrow’s election. The currency has risen 3.2 percent against the Group of 10 currencies from this year’s low on March 10, after falling 7.4 percent in the previous six weeks, according to Bloomberg correlation-weighted indexes. The yield on the 10-year gilt dropped yesterday to the lowest level since December. Traders are betting that whichever party forms a government after the May 6 vote will deliver a plan to reduce the record budget deficit. The euro tumbled to a one-year low against the dollar following reductions in the credit ratings of Greece, Portugal and Spain by Standard & Poor’s last week. S&P and Moody’s Investors Service signaled they may remove Britain’s AAA grade depending on the new government’s measures. “What’s happening in the euro zone with the rating downgrades are most likely being followed by the U.K. candidates,” said Audrey Childe-Freeman , a senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman Ltd. in London. “No leader or no coalition government would like to experience a downgrade for U.K. debt.” A ComRes Ltd. poll for ITV News and the Independent newspaper on May 4 showed Conservative support at 37 percent, Labour at 29 percent, and the Liberal Democrats at 26 percent. That would give the Conservatives 294 seats, 32 short of a majority, ComRes said. No margin of error was given. ‘Defensive Trading’ Still, the pound declined 1 percent against the dollar this week on speculation the election will result in a coalition government. “You’re going to see more defensive trading the closer we get to the election with a lack of a change in the prospect of a hung parliament,” Peter Frank , a strategist at Societe Generale SA in London, said yesterday. “That’s a slight negative for the pound. It’s going to be a cliff-hanger.” Sterling was dropped for a fourth day, falling to $1.5126 today from $1.5143 in New York yesterday. The currency traded at 85.744 pence per euro from 85.758. The U.K. deficit, the largest in the Group of Seven nations at more than 11 percent of gross domestic product, has dominated the election campaign. ‘Ludicrous’ The Conservatives, who have pledged to make bigger cuts to the 167 billion pound ($252.7 billion) shortfall than Labour and the Liberal Democrats, raised the specter last week of an International Monetary Fund bailout if the vote produces an indecisive result. Liberal Democrat Leader Nick Clegg criticized the idea as “ludicrous” and said there will be no “Armageddon” if there is a hung parliament. Bloomberg’s Correlation-Weighted Index that measures the pound against a basket of currencies based on variances in exchange rates closed yesterday at 63.9116 in New York. While that is up from 61.8930 on March 10, it’s below the high this year of 66.8641 on Jan. 28. The index has a start date of Jan. 2, 1975, and a base value of 100. The yield on the benchmark 10-year gilt, a 4.75 percent note due in March 2020, fell 7 basis points, or 0.07 percentage point, to 3.84 percent. This year’s closing high was 4.28 percent on Feb. 19. Stock traders aren’t as optimistic. The benchmark FTSE 100 Index has fallen 4.7 percent this quarter, compared with a 2.4 percent drop in Germany’s DAX Index. Short Positions The difference in the number of bets the pound will fall compared with wagers on a gain — so-called net shorts — shrank to 54,666 last week from a record 71,624 on March 23, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show. “The worst scenario is priced in,” said Neil Jones , head of European hedge-fund sales at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in London. “If we get anything but a hung parliament, which is quite possible, then, given the overwhelming short position on the pound, whoever it is, it should be good for the currency.” Even with a U.K. parliamentary deadlock “the one area where there is a synchronization is with regard to the deficit,” Jones said. It may be possible “to push these measures through,” he said. Greek Crisis The Greek debt crisis may be muddying the message the market is sending on the election, according to David Bloom , global head of currency strategy at HSBC Holdings Plc in London. Concern that Greece’s debt woes will spill over to other members of the European Union drove the euro lower against all 16 of the major currencies the past month except the Swiss franc and South African rand, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “The whole situation with Greece and the euro has obscured the situation,” Bloom said. “A hung parliament is probably priced in by now and people are selling the euro because of Greece.” S&P affirmed its “negative” outlook on the U.K.’s AAA rating on March 29 “in the absence of a strong fiscal consolidation plan.” Moody’s said Britain has moved “substantially” closer to losing the top rank as debt costs climb. Fitch Ratings said March 24 the pace of deficit reduction is too slow. ‘Worst’ Scenario The Liberal Democrats, Britain’s third party, gained support following Clegg’s performance in three live televised debates with Cameron and Brown. Polls suggest Brown’s Labour Party could stay in power with Liberal Democrat backing. Two of Brown’s Cabinet ministers suggested in newspaper interviews that Labour supporters should consider backing the Liberal Democrats in districts Labour can’t win to keep the Conservatives out. Former Bank of England policy maker Charles Goodhart said the “worst type” of hung parliament for the pound and the U.K. economy would be a scenario where the Conservatives have a “clear lead in the popular vote, Labour having just a tiny majority in seats over the Conservatives and nobody quite knowing what the Liberals are going to do.” “Nobody would know who the government would be, or what they would do, or what its policies would be and markets don’t like that sort of uncertainty,” Goodhart said in an interview with Bloomberg News. To contact the reporter on this story: Paul Dobson in London at pdobson2@bloomberg.net

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Ann Pettifor: Standard and Poor: The Voice of Sanity on the Deficit

May 3, 2010

It might seem extraordinary, but in the midst of deficit-cutting mania it’s a rating agency, Standard and Poor, that is talking common sense about government debt. By doing so they are challenging members of the international Austerity Party – a political party that dominates economic debate across the world. In this case the rating agency was commenting on the crisis in Greece and Portugal – but the comment could just as well apply to the United States – or any other economy trying to recover from a financial crisis induced by private bankers. Standard and Poor officials are quoted by the New York Times (28 April, 2010) as saying: “The main reason for downgrading the debt of Greece and Portugal was the prospect that forced austerity packages would be an even bigger drag on economic growth. It is the most vicious of circles: stagnating economies are forced to cut back more, which reduces their ability to generate revenue and thus pay off their debts.” This economic common sense makes a refreshing change from the suicidal howls of the lemming-like hordes leading the international Austerity Party. These dominate all economic debate on the airwaves, in newspaper columns, economic blogs and political outlets. As they head for the cliffs, they can be heard baying for cuts in government spending – regardless of economic common sense; regardless of the likely economic impact. Their argument is simple: when a nation is at its weakest, when its debts are highest, when the economy is at greatest peril, then it is imperative to apply draconian policies for cutting the deficit. These policies must include vicious cut-backs on efforts by the government to stimulate economic recovery, and generate the revenues that will repay debts. In particular government must cut back on public investment in infrastructure that creates jobs, generates tax revenues (through the ‘multiplier’) and helps the economy recover, so that debts can be repaid. In other words, when an economy – any economy – is heavily in debt and on its knees….. That is the moment, argues the Austerity Party, to cut off its legs. Before forcing it to run the marathon. Forgive the violence of my analogy, but sometimes words, as Keynes argued, have to be a little wild, to rouse people from their blindness to grave threats and risks. Right now the European Union and IMF, with the forceful backing of the German Chancellor and Finance Minister, are coercing the democratically elected Greek government into effectively disabling the Greek economy. According to the Financial Times (2 May 2010) there is to be ” a huge fiscal tightening equal to 16 per cent of gross domestic product – an extra 11 per cent on top of the 5 per cent already announced.” “Greece’s vicious recession is poised to continue and deepen……The fiscal targets require huge upfront cuts in public spending, including reductions in public sector pay, jobs and pensions.” The IMF’s representative Poul Thomsen had the gall to argue that this disastrous economic strategy “is credible because it has a lot of support from the international community; it is credible because it is socially well balanced; it is credible because it is the [Greek] government’s programme.” This is a dishonest and delusional statement. It is dishonest because it is blatantly not the Greek government’s program. It is the German government’s condition for making bailout funds available. It is delusional, because it is an economic strategy designed to fail. While it may be credible with the members of the international Austerity Party – it is not economically viable. Ask Standard and Poor. The voice of common sense. Drowned out by the hysteria and flawed economics of the Austerity Party.

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National Bank of Greece Is Pick of Analysts Who Say Country Won’t Default

May 3, 2010

By Niklas Magnusson May 3 (Bloomberg) — National Bank of Greece SA , the worst performer on Bloomberg’s index of European financial stocks this year, is a favorite of analysts, who say those betting on a Greek default have got it wrong. National Bank gained 24 percent in three days last week as the European Union and International Monetary Fund worked out a 110 billion-euro ($146 billion) rescue for Greece. Yesterday, officials said the bailout would include a 10 billion-euro fund to make sure Greek banks stay adequately capitalized. “Greece won’t default on its debt, not at all, and while Greek bonds and stocks have been hammered, the banks can recover,” said Vassilios Vlastarakis , an analyst at Beta Securities in Athens who rates National Bank “overweight.” “Greek banking stocks will thrive over the next two to three years.” National Bank received “buy” ratings from 68 percent of analysts since the start of 2010, data compiled by Bloomberg show, even as the stock fell 32 percent in Athens trading. Only five of the 52 companies on the Bloomberg Europe Banks and Financial Services Index got higher marks. Beta predicts National Bank will climb to 19 euros from 12.35 euros, where it closed in Athens trading on April 30. Should bad loans show a larger increase than Beta estimates in the first quarter, the broker may cut its rating to “equal- weight,” Vlastarakis said. National Bank trades at 0.84 times book value , compared with 1.16 times for Oslo-based DnB NOR ASA , the European bank rated highest by analysts, and 0.96 times for the Bloomberg Europe banking index. Turkish Profits Greece’s largest bank may weather the crisis in part because of its unit in Turkey, which accounted for 46 percent of the Athens-based company’s profit in 2009. While National Bank had a net loss of 194 million euros in Greece in the fourth quarter, earnings in Turkey amounted to 93 million euros. The Turkish unit is its “most valuable asset right now,” Vlastarakis said. Nikos Koskoletos , an analyst at EFG Eurobank Ergasias SA, raised his rating on National Bank to “buy” from “hold” on April 21, saying in a note to clients that the bank’s liquidity and margins will underpin its profit before provisions. Eurobank has a 17.9-euro share-price estimate on National Bank. Founded in 1841, the company operates in Turkey through its Finansbank unit, and also has units in Albania, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Egypt, Romania and Serbia. An “extended geographic footprint outside Greece is also deemed as positive,” Koskoletos said in the note. Cut to Junk Standard & Poor’s lowered Greece’s credit rating below investment grade on April 27, and cut National Bank , EFG Eurobank, Alpha Bank and Piraeus Bank SA to junk as well. The rating company said the banks are at risk because of their holdings of government bonds. Asset quality and profitability will remain under pressure as the economy shrinks and drives up loan losses, S&P said. The extra yield that investors demand to hold Greek debt over German bunds surged to 826 basis points on April 28 after the S&P rating cut. It eased to 594 points on April 30 as signs of an agreement emerged. The Portuguese spread jumped to the most since at least 1997 last week and the premium on Spain climbed to the highest since March 2009. European policymakers are trying to avoid a Greek debt restructuring and stamp out signs of a contagion. The bailout will give Greece time to fix its budget before returning to the market to borrow, which it wants to do “as soon as possible,” Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said in Athens yesterday. Bank Support Fund Greece’s fiscal deficit stood at 13.6 percent of gross domestic product last year, the EU’s statistics office said last week, higher than the government’s April 7 estimate of 12.9 percent. Greece agreed to budget cuts of 30 billion euros, or 13 percent of GDP, including wage reductions and a three-year freeze on pensions, Papaconstantinou said yesterday. Greece’s main sales tax rate will rise to 23 percent from 21 percent. The Greek bailout includes a support fund for domestic banks, which are likely to face mounting bad loans as the economy contracts, officials from the EU and IMF said yesterday. The objective “will be to ensure that the Greek banks are well capitalized at all times,” Servaas Deroose , deputy director general of the European Commission’s economic and financial affairs department, said yesterday. “The Greek banking system is actually quite well capitalized,” said Poul Thomsen , the IMF European Department deputy director. “But clearly, with this dramatic program, the contraction in nominal GDP, we do expect to see an increase in non-performing loans.” Of the 25 analysts covering National Bank, 17 have “buy” ratings, four advise holding the stock and four counsel selling. The company had a fourth-quarter net loss of 87 million euros on higher loan-loss provisions. To contact the reporter on this story: Niklas Magnusson in Stockholm at nmagnusson1@bloomberg.net

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Papandreou Makes Austerity Pitch as Unions Slam Cuts

April 30, 2010

By Maria Petrakis and Natalie Weeks April 30 (Bloomberg) — Prime Minister George Papandreou is starting his sales pitch to the Greek people as unions denounce “unjust” budget cuts linked to a potential $159 billion European Union bailout. “We find ourselves before the most savage, unprovoked and unjust attack,” Spyros Papaspyros , head of the ADEDY civil servants union, said in Athens late yesterday after meeting Papandreou. “The answer will be given in the street.” Greek officials aim to reach an agreement with the EU and the International Monetary Fund in coming days on budget cuts that may be worth 24 billion euros ($32 billion). While signs of an accord ended a bond market selloff in Europe yesterday, Moody’s Investors Service warned that Greece could be vulnerable to a “multi-notch” downgrade if measures don’t go far enough. Steps may include a three-year wage freeze for public workers and cutting two of the 14 salary payments that they receive annually, the ADEDY union said. Greece’s NET Radio said yesterday that cuts could amount to 10 percentage points of gross domestic product. The deficit was 13.6 percent of GDP in 2009. “It’s a tall order to assume that Greeks will be convinced because for years they have been used to getting a different type of treatment from their governments,” said Michael Massourakis , chief economist at Alpha Bank, the country’s third largest, in a telephone interview. “Papandreou doesn’t have the luxury of choosing the context or pace of the adjustment.” Retailers plan to shut their stores on May 5, joining a strike organized by the GSEE union, the nation’s biggest. Junk Rating Greece’s credit rating was cut to below investment grade, or junk, this week by Standard & Poor’s. Moody’s Investors Service, which currently has an A3 rating on the country, said its decision will depend on the measures announced by the EU and the IMF. A3 is the fourth-lowest investment grade. Other deficit-cutting steps include increasing sales tax and raising the cap on the number of workers who can be fired to 4 percent from 2 percent, Kathimerini newspaper said, without saying where it got the information. “We will do what is needed for the salvation of the country,” Papandreou said, according to the e-mailed transcript of his comments to union and business representatives. It didn’t give details of the austerity measures. Bond Yield The yield on the Greek 10-year government bond, which surged to 11.406 percent on April 28, fell 91 basis points to 9.04 percent yesterday as officials speed up efforts to finalize a rescue package. The ASE benchmark general index , which has lost nearly a fifth of its value this year, jumped 7 percent, the most since December. National Bank of Greece SA soared 18 percent. The euro was little changed against the dollar in Asia, trading at $1.3239 as of 2:17 p.m. in Tokyo. Stocks across the region snapped a three-day losing streak as earnings results from companies in the region bolstered confidence in Asia’s economic expansion. “The financial support will give Greece sufficient breathing space from pressures of financial markets,” EU Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said yesterday. Election Pledge Papandreou is stuck between investors, who want faster deficit cuts, and voters and unions, who are already chafing from existing austerity measures. Elected in October on pledges to raise wages for public workers, Papandreou has been forced to cut salaries, curb spending and raise taxes to reduce a deficit that was more than four times the EU’s limit last year. “We were and are the champions of change,” Papandreou said April 28. “We know we must put our economy in order if we are to survive.” The time has come to move on from “watching the spreads go up and down, usually more up than down.” “I got a taste of a very tough package,” Yannis Panagopoulos, head of the GSEE union, said after meeting Papandreou. He described it as “arbitrary and unjust.” Voters’ anger has been partly focused on the IMF and the political risks facing Papandreou are highlighted by the IMF’s most recent involvement in Europe. In Hungary, the first EU member to turn to the Washington- based lender, voters this month ousted the ruling Socialist party two years after it accepted a bailout. Fiscal conditions attached to the $27 billion loan exacerbated the country’s recession as unemployment soared to a record, souring support for the government. Popular Opposition Sixty-five percent of Greek voters polled by researcher Alco for the Proto Thema newspaper last week said Papandreou must reject any measures that lead to more wage and pension cuts. Europe’s fiscal crisis worsened this week after Germany’s reluctance to approve emergency funds sparked a drop in Greek bonds and S&P followed its Greek downgrade with cuts for Portugal and Spain. Papandreou, who said last week that his country faces a “new Odyssey,” will now have to convince voters that they don’t have a choice, said Alpha Bank’s Massourakis. Even after yesterday’s bond-market rally, Greece must pay 12.57 percent to borrow for two years. Germany pays 0.79 percent. “It’ll be difficult, but at end of the day people will realize that these are necessary because the country doesn’t have access to borrowing anymore,” he said. To contact the reporters on this story: Maria Petrakis in Athens at mpetrakis@bloomberg.net Natalie Weeks in Athens at nweeks2@bloomberg.net .

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Greece’s Junk Contagion Pressures EU to Broaden Bailout After Market Rout

April 27, 2010

By Simon Kennedy and Emma Ross-Thomas April 28 (Bloomberg) — Europe’s worsening debt crisis is intensifying pressure on policy makers to widen a bailout package beyond Greece after a cut in the nation’s rating to junk drove up borrowing costs from Italy to Portugal and Ireland. As German Chancellor Angela Merkel delays approval of a 45 billion-euro ($59 billion) Greek rescue, the crisis is spreading. Portugal’s benchmark stock index yesterday fell the most since the aftermath of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s collapse, while the extra yield that investors demand to hold Italian and Irish debt over bunds rose to a 10-month high. The danger for European officials is that the fiscal turmoil which started six months ago with fudged Greek budget data will spin out of their control. As Greece waits for its euro-region partners to disperse funds, the European Union has announced no concrete plans to help other nations should aid be needed. The euro weakened to the lowest in a year. “Policy makers need to get ahead of the curve,” Eric Fine, who manages Van’s Eck’s G-175 Strategies emerging-market hedge fund. “This is no longer a problem about Greece or Portugal, but about the euro system.” Governments may hold a summit in early May to discuss Greece, officials said. The euro dropped 1.5 percent to $1.3183 yesterday, taking its decline for the year to 8 percent. The spread on the debt of Italy, the euro region’s third-largest economy, rose 30 basis points to 217 points. Portugal’s PSI-20 stock index dropped 5.4 percent, the most since October 2008. Real Risk “The biggest risk now is that the market speculates against every single indebted peripheral country, and that could lead to a sovereign debt crisis,” said Axel Botte , a fixed- income strategist at AXA Investment Managers in Paris. “The contagion risk is real.” Bonds plunged as Standard & Poor’s lowered its rating on Greece by three steps to BB+ from BBB+ and warned that investors could recover as little as 30 percent of their initial outlay if the country restructures its debt. The shift came minutes after the rating company reduced Portugal by two steps to A- from A+. The moves exacerbated concern that Portugal and other nations trying to cut budgets will be left to fend for themselves by an EU that took two months to agree on a plan for Greece. “As long as there is no Greek solution there will be continuous problems with the other peripheral economies,” said Gilles Moec , an economist at Deutsche Bank AG. “Every week we think we have clarification and then things become murkier.” Market Attack Portuguese Finance Minister Fernando Teixeira dos Santos said yesterday his country must react to “attacks by markets.” The crisis is deepening as German lawmakers debate whether to put taxpayers’ money at risk in the face of public opposition and an election in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia on May 9. Bild Zeitung , Germany’s biggest-selling tabloid, yesterday ran a front-page headline asking: “Why do we have to pay Greece’s luxury pensions?” European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, who declined to comment to reporters on yesterday’s downgrades, is in Berlin today to brief lawmakers on Greece’s deficit-cutting plans. The country is struggling to convince investors it can push its shortfall below the EU’s limit of 3 percent of gross domestic product from 13.6 percent last year. The yield on the Greek two-year note rose 505 basis points to 18.99 percent yesterday, more than 20 times the comparable German bond and 6 percentage points more than similar-maturity notes from Pakistan. Portugal’s 10-year bond yield jumped 41 basis points to 5.724 percent. Redemption Greece, which faces 8.5 billion euros in bonds coming due on May 19, must still agree on terms for its rescue package, which will be co-financed by the euro region and the International Monetary Fund. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou last week activated the aid package and is facing fire from investors who say his budget steps need to go further and from voters who are staging strikes to protest further austerity measures. As the turbulence exposes the weakness of having a currency area without a single fiscal authority, some economists said policy makers need to create a lending mechanism that will help other euro areas members through fiscal crises. “What is missing in Europe is an authority that can back sovereigns through a crisis,” James Nixon , co-chief European economist at Societe Generale SA in London. “We desperately need this.” The ECB should consider the “nuclear option” of buying government bonds to fight the crisis, said Jacques Cailloux , chief European economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. While the central bank is prohibited from buying assets directly from governments, it can do so on the secondary market. Shock “It sends a signal to investors that the ECB is confident member states won’t default,” said Cailloux. “It’s a powerful confidence shock.” ECB officials including Trichet have down played the risk of contagion from Greece, arguing other economies are in better shape even if they need to cut deficits. “There is no economic cause for a contagion discussion,” Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said in an April 24 interview. Still, Ireland’s deficit was 14.3 percent of GDP last year, the highest in the EU. Spain’s was 11.2 percent and Portugal’s 9.4 percent. Marc Faber , the publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, said the time had come to eject euro members that repeatedly violated the region’s budget rules, even though no mechanism for such steps yet exists. “The best would be to kick out Greece and the countries that abuse the system,” Faber said in an interview. “They didn’t have the fiscal discipline that was essentially imposed by EU.” To contact the reporters on this story: Simon Kennedy in Paris at skennedy4@bloomberg.net Emma Ross-Thomas in Madrid at erossthomas@bloomberg.net ;

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Kim Davis: PRODUCT WARRANTY PROPOSAL FOR THE RATINGS AGENCIES

April 27, 2010

PRODUCT WARRANTY PROPOSAL FOR RATINGS AGENCIES An enduring mystery of the debate about regulatory reform is the extent to which the ratings agencies are a second order issue of concern. Firms like S&P and Moody’s are Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations (or “NRSRO”) and issue credit ratings that the SEC permits other financial firms to use for certain regulatory purposes. This imprimatur of legitimacy creates a lucrative revenue base for these firms; but they are fundamentally unregulated and unsupervised. Their reckless issuance of AAA ratings in combination with their quasi official status fueled the permissive atmosphere that led to an explosion in the issuance of worthless mortgage backed securities – perhaps the most immediate single cause of our financial system meltdown. I believe that there is a simple solution if we want the managements of these firms to administer the ratings process with the degree of intellectual integrity and analytical rigor that the investing public should have expected and now should demand. Specifically, any financial system regulatory overhaul bill should include a provision that would impose a defined liability for the rating agencies when a bond defaults. Essentially, this would be mandated product warrantly. The amount of warranty coverage provided by a ratings firm would vary depending on whether a bond had been rated AAA ( in which case, if it defaults, they were really, really wrong and should have a large warranty exposure) or BB ( in which case, if it defaults, they were perhaps only slightly wrong). No warranties would be required for any bonds rated below BB on the theory that those types of bonds are, by definition, speculative and the fact that no warranty would be applicable would be a proper admonition to any potential buyer with respect to the due diligence that should be performed in connection with a purchase of such a security. If the warranty were calculated as a variable percentage of the face value of the bond with the percentage dependent upon the initial rating ( the higher the rating, the higher the percentage) then the agencies would have a strong economic interest to get the ratings right. The ratings agencies probably would raise the prices they charge for issuing ratings due to the “product warranty” exposure. However, those price increases will be limited both by natural competition between the firms and by the fact that, over time, the very presence of the warranty exposure will lead to higher quality ratings and minimal payouts. Nonetheless, even if the cost of ratings rises somewhat, our financial system will be a lot sounder if we have a systemically higher quality ratings process. The point of this proposal is to create a system that does not rely on a lengthy court process to determine whether the ratings agencies acted in good faith when a bond turns out to have been materially misrated; rather it is to implement a system where the ratings agencies, in return for the right to benefit from the revenue that they generate as a result of their status as an NRSRO, should bear clear liability for the quality of their work.

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Euro Trades Below $1.32 for First Time Since April 2009 Amid Debt Concerns

April 27, 2010

By Ben Levisohn April 27 (Bloomberg) — The euro dropped below $1.32 for the first time since April 2009 after Standard & Poor’s lowered Greece’s debt to junk and cut the rating of Portugal. The yen and greenback rallied versus most of their major counterparts including the South African rand and Australian dollar on concern European governments are struggling to contain the debt crisis, discouraging demand for higher-yielding assets. The cost of protection on Greece’s and Portugal’s sovereign bonds rose to record levels. “Euro-dollar should be much lower,” said Sebastien Galy , a currency strategist at BNP Paribas SA in New York. “We’re seeing pressures move out of Greece into other parts of Europe.” The euro slipped 1.5 percent to $1.3184 at 3:38 p.m. in New York, from $1.3383. The euro traded at 122.82 yen, compared with 125.73 yesterday. The dollar decreased 0.9 percent to 93.13 yen, from 93.96. South Africa’s rand fell 1.3 percent to 7.4402 per dollar and Australia’s currency dropped 1.6 percent to 85.73 yen on speculation investors will reduce carry trades, in which they buy higher-yielding assets with amounts borrowed in nations with low borrowing costs. The benchmark interest rates of 0.1 percent in Japan and zero to 0.25 percent in the U.S. have made the dollar and yen popular for funding such transactions. S&P lowered its long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings on Greece to BB+ and B, respectively, from BBB+ and A-2. The outlook is negative. Portugal’s Rating Portugal’s long-term local and foreign currency sovereign issuer credit ratings were cut today from A+ to A- at S&P, which cited “fiscal and economic structural” weakness. “The downgrade was more aggressive than expected,” said Win Thin , a senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York, referring to the cut in Portugal’s debt rating. “If Portugal comes under attack, you get to Spain pretty quickly. I can’t believe the euro will hold up if the contagion spreads.” Credit-default swaps on Greece’s government bonds climbed 111 basis points, or 1.11 percentage points, to 821, according to CMA DataVision. Those on Portugal’s debt rose 54 basis points to 365. Yields on Greece’s two-year notes surged above 18 percent, the highest level since at least 1998. Euro-region countries are firming up an aid package for Greece “to send a clear signal that we won’t let Greece go under,” Handelsblatt reported Germany’s Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble as saying in an interview. Germany’s View Restructuring of Greek debt is not a topic in talks between Greece, the International Monetary Fund, European Central Bank and European Union and isn’t supported by any office holder in the German government, Schaeuble was cited as saying in an article in tomorrow’s edition. A draft German law laying out emergency financial help for Greece asks that German loans up to a maximum of 8.4 billion euros ($11.1 billion) be made available to uphold the stability of the European currency, with quarterly reports to parliament on the “proper use” of the aid by Greece. “This is no longer a problem about Greece or Portugal, but a problem with the euro system,” Eric Fine , a fund manager in New York at Van Eck Global. “My concern is the risk of coordination failure. Policy makers need to get ahead of the curve before this turns into a banking-system issue.” U.S. Sentiment The dollar briefly pared its drop against the yen as the New York-based Conference Board’s sentiment index rose to 57.9 in April from a revised 52.3 in the previous month. The median forecast of 78 economists in a Bloomberg News survey was for an increase to 53.5 from a previously reported 52.5. “These were fantastic numbers,” said Andrew Busch , a global currency strategist at Bank of Montreal in Chicago. “The Fed understands that the economy is recovering.” Futures on the CME Group Inc. exchange showed a 66 percent chance the Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark rate by at least a quarter-percentage point by its December meeting, compared with 65 percent odds a week ago. The central bank will hold steady its target for overnight lending tomorrow, all of the 102 economists in a Bloomberg News survey predicted. To contact the reporter on this story: Ben Levisohn in New York at blevisohn@bloomberg.net

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Bankers Would Say `Anything’ to Get High Rating, Former S&P Analyst Says

April 26, 2010

By Elliot Blair Smith April 26 (Bloomberg) — Just past midnight on May 3, 2005, Standard & Poor’s analyst Chui Ng e-mailed co-workers to broker a solution to demands by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. bankers that he said violated two or more of the ratings company’s internal guidelines. Goldman Sachs was adding $200 million in debt at the “last minute” to a $1.5 billion bond pool called Adirondack Ltd., Ng wrote. That meant the New York investment bank would originate 13 percent of the pool itself, two-and-a-half times the 5 percent limit set by S&P. Goldman Sachs also balked at Ng’s request to pay in advance for an insurance policy known as a credit default swap, which was being used to create the additional debt obligation. The e-mails from Ng, who negotiated a compromise on Goldman Sachs’s requests, provide a rare window into the back-and-forth between the bank and a rating company assessing the risks in a financial product linked to subprime mortgages . The exchange was among 581 pages of private communications released last week by Senate investigators. Ng, who no longer works in the rating business, said in a telephone interview April 23 that while the Senate documents contain an “incomplete record,” they show how banks pressured credit raters to lower standards as they created collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, during the housing boom. ‘Strong-Arm’ “The bankers would say anything to get what they needed into their deals,” Ng, 47, said. “Goldman is very good at looking at every deal; every CDO that’s ever been issued.” Ng said the perception among professionals in the ratings business was that the bank had a team that would look for “inconsistencies across different deals and use that to strong- arm Moody’s, Fitch and S&P to change their criteria.” Asked about Ng’s comments, Goldman Sachs spokesman Michael DuVally said in an e-mail, “Goldman Sachs and others relied upon the rating agencies to supply independent analysis and ratings.” He declined to elaborate. S&P spokesman Chris Atkins declined to comment for this story. Moody’s Corp, Fitch Inc., a unit of Paris-based Fimalac S.A., and S&P, a unit of McGraw-Hill Cos., are the three largest rating firms in global debt markets. Senator Carl Levin , a Michigan Democrat who is chairman of the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, said at a panel hearing April 23 that the raters compromised “their analysis, their independence and their reputation for reliability. And they did it for money.” Abacus The SEC sued Goldman Sachs on April 16, alleging it had defrauded investors when selling debt tied to mortgages on another deal known as Abacus 2007-AC1. The SEC alleges that Goldman Sachs and executive director Fabrice Tourre failed to inform investors that a hedge fund led by billionaire John Paulson played a role in choosing Abacus securities that Paulson was betting would fail. Goldman Sachs denies wrongdoing. Paulson isn’t a defendant in the lawsuit. Goldman Sachs Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein , 55, along with Tourre and five current and former employees are set to appear before Levin’s panel Tuesday. Ng rated several previous Abacus deals before resigning from S&P in March 2006. Two days after his first e-mail on Adirondack to fellow members of an S&P criteria panel, Ng wrote that the firm’s modeling now accommodated Goldman’s demands. In return, the bank would put up more collateral, or find a replacement guarantor, if its own credit rating were downgraded, he wrote. Compromise Wins Ng’s compromise carried by a 4-3 vote while provoking sharp dissent, in part because the only one speaking up for the proposal in the released e-mails was Ng himself, Senate documents show. “I would vote NO on this one,” wrote Lapo Guadagnuolo, a senior director of S&P’s structured finance office in London. Kenneth Cheng, then a director in S&P’s CDO group, wrote that the compromise “opens up abuse of our criteria, devoiding it of much meaning.” Michael Drexler , an S&P analyst in New York, also objected. “Ignoring for a moment my stupid (and arrogant!) irritation that the correct side lost, in my mind this is a great example of how the criteria process is NOT supposed to work. Being outvoted is one thing (and a good thing, in my view) but being out-voted by mystery voters with no ‘logic trail’ to refer to is another. How can we possibly reconstruct the argument of the winning side for our future deals if it does not exist in writing for general reference?” Drexler wrote. ‘Backroom Decision’ “This is exactly the kind of backroom decision-making that leads to inconsistent criteria, confused analysts and pissed-off clients,” he added. Reached by telephone Friday, Drexler said, “That’s exactly the kind of thing a young analyst shouldn’t put in writing. Thank God I was right.” Ng, in the interview, defended his work on the Adirondack CDO, which S&P downgraded from AAA to AA in October 2008 and further reduced to BB+, below investment grade, in June 2009. He denied that he had led “mystery voters” to support the compromise. He said that votes on criteria often were made without identifying names to avoid pressuring ratings panelists. “There were a lot of these one-off deals, different team leaders, different managers,” Ng said. “If they got approved, you can’t keep that a secret. After you issue it, bankers can reverse engineer the deals and everybody would ask for it.” Among the e-mails published by the Senate committee was one from Moody’s CEO Raymond McDaniel , who ruminated about banker- rater tension in a memorandum he sent to himself shortly before midnight on Oct. 21, 2007. “Analysts and MDs” managing directors “are continually ‘pitched’ by bankers, issuers, investors — all with reasonable arguments — whose views can color credit judgment, sometimes improving it, other times degrading it (we ‘drink the kool- aid’),” McDaniel wrote, incorporating remarks that he’d heard from some of his employees in recent weeks. “Coupled with strong internal emphasis on market share & margin focus, this does constitute a ‘risk’ to ratings quality.” To contact the reporter on this story: Elliot Blair Smith in Washington at esmith29@bloomberg.net .

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Eastman Chemical Rises as Profit, Second-Quarter Forecast Exceed Estimates

April 23, 2010

By Jack Kaskey April 23 (Bloomberg) — Eastman Chemical Co. , the biggest U.S. maker of plastics for water bottles, rose the most in nine months in New York trading after the company’s first-quarter earnings and second-quarter forecast topped analysts’ estimates. First-quarter net income was $1.37 a share and second- quarter earnings will be $1.50 to $1.60 a share, Kingsport, Tennessee-based Eastman said yesterday in a statement. Profit was projected to be $1.15 a share in the first quarter, the average estimate of nine analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, and $1.19 in the second quarter, according to seven analysts. Chief Executive Officer Jim Rogers said on a conference call today he’s boosting output after first-quarter sales jumped 39 percent to $1.56 billion on higher demand and prices. Sales volumes in specialty plastics jumped 50 percent as products such as Tritan copolyester gained market share, Rogers said. “Eastman’s first-quarter performance gives us confidence that the company can continue to drive earnings significantly,” Charles Neivert , a New York-based analyst at Dahlman Rose & Co., said today in a note. Neivert raised his rating on the shares to “buy” from “hold” after Eastman’s “breakout” results. Eastman climbed $3.33, or 5 percent, to $70.45 at 12:37 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares earlier increased as much as 7.2 percent, the biggest intraday gain since July 24. Eastman gained 11 percent this year through yesterday. Possible Unit Sale The performance-polymers unit, which makes polyethylene terephthalate, or PET, for water bottles, reported a loss and may be sold after a strategic review, Rogers said. “It could very well lead to a divestiture,” Rogers said on the call. “We would expect something to happen this year.” Bank of America Merrill Lynch is serving as Eastman’s financial adviser in the review of strategic options for the PET business, the chemical maker said today in a statement. The PET business comprises about 81 percent of the performance-polymers unit’s sales, the company said in a presentation . The unit had $719 million of sales last year, according to Bloomberg data. Revenue has declined from $2.23 billion in 2004 as the company closed plants and sold assets outside the U.S. Net income in the first quarter surged to $101 million from $2 million, or 3 cents a share, a year earlier. Eastman said full-year earnings will be $5 to $5.25 a share. That compares with the $4.51 average estimate of eight analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. To contact the reporter on this story: Jack Kaskey in New York at jkaskey@bloomberg.net .

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Yielding To Wall Street, Credit Raters ‘Drink The Kool-Aid’

April 22, 2010

In the lead up to the financial meltdown, Wall Street firms routinely exerted influence on the nation’s largest credit rating companies— which judge the quality and safety of bonds—and the companies often surrendered to the pressure, according to the results of a Senate investigation. The rating companies, Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s, regularly awarded generous grades to thousands of mortgage-related investments that later collapsed and precipitated the financial crisis. Investors rely on the raters’ assessments in deciding what to buy and sell. But an examination, conducted by the Senate’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, uncovered internal e-mails and documents that describe the raters as “beholden” to investment banks—firms the raters referred to as their “clients.” In an October 2007 e-mail, Moody’s chief risk officer warned the company’s chief executive, Raymond McDaniel, that Moody’s employees are “continually ‘pitched’ by bankers,” a process that can “color credit judgment, sometimes improving it, other times degrading it (we ‘drink the Kool-Aid’).” The risk officer said such influence “does constitute a ‘risk’ to ratings quality.” Moody’s spokesman Michael Adler said the company has “rigorous and transparent methodologies.”  S&P did not immediately respond to requests for comment. In the past, both raters have said their critics are wrong to characterize ordinary discussions about a rating as any kind of collusion. Both companies eased their standards as they battled for control over the credit rating business, according to the subcommittee. The raters, internal e-mails suggest, knew that some mortgage investments were flawed but gave them good grades anyway. “I’m not surprised; there has been rampant appraisal and underwriting fraud in the [mortgage] industry for quite some time as pressure has mounted to feed the origination machine,” an S&P managing director  wrote in a 2006 e-mail. This time period was crucial for the raters. Between 2006 and 2007, S&P and Moody’s each rated 10,000 mortgage securities, according to the subcommitee. Their revenues soared, peaking in 2007 at nearly $3 billion. But the raters later had to downgrade 90 percent of the risky mortgage securities they awarded top ratings to between 2004 and 2007, according to an analysis by BlackRock Solutions provided by the subcommittee. Such downgrades have been blamed for triggering the financial meltdown. “I don’t think either of these companies have served their shareholders or the country well,” said Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI), chairman of the subcommittee. “They were excessively influenced by investment bankers.” The Huffington Post Investigative Fund reported last year that rating analysts worked closely with financial institutions as they created mortgage investments. Banks often structured the financial products and then sold them to pension funds and other investors. In the most recent lawsuit filed against the raters, Ohio’s Attorney General Richard Cordray accused the companies of being “intimately involved in structuring” investments that caused retirement funds for police officers, firefighters and teachers to lose $457 million. Internal e-mails of Moody’s and S&P, released by the subcommittee, provide a window into Wall Street’s influence over the raters, said Levin. S&P’s residential mortgage rating group has “become so beholden to their top issuers [investment banks] for revenue they have all developed a kind of Stockholm Syndrome,” an S&P employee wrote in 2006. A June 2007 e-mail exchange between a Moody’s analyst and an investment banker highlights how rating fees were discussed as part of the rating process. The analyst told the banker that a particular rating likely could not be finalized until the “fee issue” was resolved. The banker, who worked for Merrill Lynch, responded: “We are agreeing to this under the assumption that this will not be a precedent for any future deals and that you will work with us further on this transaction to try to get to some middle ground with respect to the ratings.”    According to an e-mail Moody’s provided to the Investigative Fund late Thursday, there was more to the conversation. The Moody’s analyst replied to the Merrill Lynch banker later that day: “We will certainly continue working with you on this transaction, but analytical discussions/outcomes  should be independent of any fee discussions.” Still, competitive pressures affected the ratings process, the subcommittee said. In a 2004 e-mail, an S&P employee discussed “adjusting” rating procedures “because of the ongoing threat of losing deals.” Anxieties over losing deals surfaced in another instance. “We just lost a huge [mortgage deal] to Moody’s due to a huge difference in the required credit support level,” an S&P employee said in another 2004 e-mail. “There’s no way we can get back on this one but we need to address this now in preparation for the future deals.” S&P’s concerns cost them precious time, according to an e-mail released by the subcommittee. A new version of the S&P ratings model, “could’ve been released months ago and resources assigned elsewhere if we didn’t have to massage the sub-prime and Alt-A numbers to preserve market share,” an  S&P employee wrote in 2005. Some rating company employees appear to have objected to the changes.   In a 2005 e-mail, one employee wrote: “Screwing with [the model's] criteria to ‘get the deal’ is putting the entire S&P franchise at risk–it’s a bad idea.” Follow the Huffington Post Investigative Fund on Twitter or fan us on Facebook . Do you have information about this story? Send us a tip or submit a correction . REPUBLISH THIS STORY FOR FREE: The Huffington Post Investigative Fund licenses its content through Creative Commons. We encourage you to republish our stories in full with proper attribution.

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Asian Stocks, Currencies Gain as Recovery Accelerates in Biggest Economies

April 14, 2010

By Will McSheehy and Shani Raja April 15 (Bloomberg) — Asian stocks rose, sending the regional benchmark index to a 20-month high, emerging market currencies gained and rubber jumped as the recovery accelerates in the U.S., China and Japan, the world’s top three economies. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.5 percent to 129.02 as of 12:08 p.m. in Tokyo, headed for its highest close since Aug. 1, 2008. Rubber in Tokyo climbed 1.7 percent to a 20-month high and oil topped $86 a barrel. The yen fell for a sixth day versus the euro, the longest drop since January. “There was a beautiful set of numbers out of the U.S. overnight,” said Shane Oliver , Sydney-based head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors, which oversees $90 billion. “You’ve got good economic data showing consumers are jumping back on board fairly solidly, pointing to further gains.” China’s economic growth accelerated at the fastest pace in almost three years in the first quarter at 11.9 percent, the statistics bureau said in Beijing today, after a U.S. report showed retailer sales climbed by the most in four months in March and the Federal Reserve said most of the country grew last month as consumer spending and manufacturing improved. Concern Japan may slip back into recession has “pretty much gone,” Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said in Tokyo. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 0.7 percent. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index lost 0.2 percent even as a report showed the nation’s manufacturing industry expanded for a seventh month in March. China Stocks China’s Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.4 percent after the growth data exceeded the 11.7 percent estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 24 economists. PetroChina Co ., the nation’s biggest oil company, climbed 1.9 percent to a three-month high. China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., Asia’s biggest oil refiner, increased 1 percent. Taiwan’s Taiex index rose 0.5 percent to a three-month high after Gartner Inc. said global personal-computer shipments rose 27 percent in the first quarter. Compal Electronics Inc ., the world’s largest laptop maker, gained 0.8 percent, the most in two weeks. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the largest contract maker of chips, climbed 0.9 percent, a three-month high. South Korea’s won rose while bond risk declined after Moody’s Investors Service raised the country’s credit rating to A1 from A2 yesterday, its highest ever grading from the risk assessor. Moody’s also upgraded ratings on South Korea’s state- run companies and 10 financial institutions, citing accelerating economic growth. Korean Upgrade The won climbed 0.3 percent to 1,108.7, strengthening to levels reached before the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in 2008, as foreign investors bought local stocks. Hana Financial Group Inc. and Industrial Bank of Korea both climbed more than 3 percent after brokerages including Meritz Securities Co. and Hyundai Securities Co. said the financial industry will benefit from the rating increase. “There’s increased risk appetite because people are more comfortable with the global growth backdrop,” Krishna Hegde , Asia credit strategist at Barclays Capital in Singapore, said in a phone interview. “We saw strong growth numbers out of China today, for example, and people are more confident about the strength of the recovery than they were, say, six months ago.” The cost of credit-default swaps protecting South Korean government bonds fell to 72.8 basis points from a New York close of 74.4 basis points yesterday, according to CMA DataVision. That’s the lowest since May 23, 2008, CMA data show. Bond Spreads The extra yield investors demand to hold state-run Korea Electric Power Corp.’s $500 million in five-year, 5.5 percent notes rather than Treasuries dropped to 140 basis points, the lowest since July 14 when the bonds started trading, according to RBS Financial prices on Bloomberg. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. Yuan forwards gained to the strongest level in a week on speculation Chinese policy makers may allow appreciation to resume soon as economic growth accelerates. Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s chief global economist Jim O’Neill said in an interview in London yesterday China may strengthen the yuan by between 2 percent and 5 percent as early as next week. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said a more flexible currency would help the world’s third-largest economy keep inflation under control. Twelve-month non-deliverable forwards climbed 0.2 percent to 6.6140 per dollar, reflecting bets the currency will strengthen 3.2 percent from the spot rate of 6.8258, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Yen Weakens Japan’s currency weakened against all 16 major counterparts. It fell to 127.57 per euro in Tokyo from 127.29 in New York yesterday, when it reached 127.68, the weakest level since April 5. The dollar was at $1.3648 per euro from $1.3653 yesterday. It reached $1.3692 on April 12, the weakest level since March 18. “With the slew of economic data signaling the expansion of the global economy and with liquidity remaining ample, risk trades will remain in vogue,” said Masahide Tanaka , a senior strategist in Tokyo at Mizuho Trust & Banking Co., a unit of Japan’s second-largest banking group. “This trade will encourage capital flows into riskier assets and away from funding currencies such as the yen.” Rubber for September delivery climbed as much as 5.6 yen to 335.4 yen per kilogram, the highest for the most active contract since July 2008. Nickel for three-month delivery gained 0.4 percent to $26,500 a metric ton, the highest since May 2008. Oil climbed for a second day in New York, trading above $86 a barrel, after a U.S. report showed an unexpected drop in supplies as gasoline demand increased the most in five years. Oil snapped five days of losses yesterday as crude stockpiles dropped 2.2 million barrels last week, the Energy Department said, the first decline in 11 weeks. Supplies were forecast to climb 1.3 million barrels, based on analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Gasoline use rose 1.3 percent in the four weeks ended April 9, the biggest gain since August 2004. To contact the reporters on this story: Will McSheehy in Singapore at wmcsheehy@bloomberg.net Shani Raja in Sydney at sraja4@bloomberg.net

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