recession

A weaker growth for the U.S

by on August 27, 2011

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(MENAFN – ecPulse) The world’s leading economy remains deeply swollen by the recession as its recovery lost momentum and pace this past period to watch accordingly a slower growth; expanding at a 1 …

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A weaker growth for the U.S

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High Energy Prices Cause Sharp Decline In Manufacturing

June 1, 2011

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. manufacturing activity expanded in May at the slowest pace in 20 months, the latest sign that a sharp rise in energy prices is hampering economic growth. The Institute for Supply Management, a trade group of purchasing executives, said Wednesday that its index of manufacturing activity fell to 53.5 percent in May from 60.4 in April. While that marked the 22nd straight month of growth, the slowdown was the biggest since 1984. Any reading above 50 indicates growth. Separately, the Commerce Department said builders began work on more home-remodeling projects to boost construction spending for the second straight month. But the 0.4 percent increase in April barely lifted spending above its lowest level in more than a decade. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of $765 billion is just 0.5 percent higher than an 11-year low hit in February. Analysts predicted it could be another four years before overall construction spending returns to a more healthy level of around $1.5 trillion annually. The weak data offered the latest evidence that the economy is hitting a second “soft patch” nearly two years after the recession officially ended. Stocks plunged after the reports were released. The Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 150 points in midday trading. The manufacturing index had topped 60 for the first four months of the year. Manufacturers had increased production to meet overseas demand for computers and other long-lasting equipment. Although manufacturers in most industries reported growth in May, all said they felt squeezed by the rising costs of fuel, chemicals, metals and other inputs. High prices for oil and other commodities have also dampened consumer spending, which has led to less demand for factory goods. Cliff Waldman, economist with the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI, a trade group, called the sharp decline “worrisome.” “Elevated commodity prices, slowing global growth, and an increasingly questionable outlook for the U.S. economy are creating headwinds for the factory sector, which thus far has been the one strong element in an otherwise sluggish U.S. economic rebound,” Waldman said. Manufacturing has been one of the strongest sectors of the economy. It has grown in all but one month since the recession ended, according to the trade group index. Still, manufacturing represents only about 11 percent of U.S. economic activity. Spending by consumers, by comparison, accounts for 70 percent of economic activity. For consumers to spend more, the job market must continue to improve. The ISM’s employment index fell to 58.2 from 62.7, indicating that manufacturers are still adding jobs, though at a slower pace. The government’s full report on jobs in May will be released Friday. The consensus forecast is that the economy added 190,000 jobs last month. But the weak data – including a report from payroll processor ADP that said private employers added only 38,000 jobs in May – prompted some economists to lower their expectations. U.S. manufacturers are not alone in seeing less demand. Earlier Wednesday, separate reports in China showed that that country’s manufacturers saw sluggish growth in orders in May. Widespread power shortages and inflation-fighting measures dampened demand. The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said its purchasing managers index fell to 52 from 52.9 in April. The index has shown expansion for 26 straight months. And a survey by London-based bank HSBC hit a 10-month low, as manufacturers added workers despite relatively slower output and new orders in May. The ISM survey showed a sharp decrease in demand for manufactured goods both in the U.S. and abroad. Indexes for new orders, production and order backlogs showed the steepest declines. New orders and order backlogs were at 51.0 and 50.5, respectively, suggesting that they are barely growing. Three industries contracted: printing; furniture; and food, beverage and tobacco. All three are closely linked to spending by consumers. And an index of manufacturers’ inventories swung from growth to contraction. That suggests manufacturers are replenishing their stockpiles at slower paces after selling off excess goods that they produced during periods of stronger demand. The ISM survey also found that the overall economy grew for the 24th straight month. The ISM, a trade group of purchasing executives based in Tempe, Ariz., compiles its manufacturing index by surveying about 300 purchasing executives across the country. WATCH a segment on U.S. economic growth.

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American Dream Lives On Despite Rising Financial Insecurity: Survey

May 27, 2011

Americans, despite the uncertainty of their own personal finances, continue to have faith in that well-worn concept of an American dream. In a recent report conducted by The Mellman Group and Public Opinion Strategies for Pew Charitable Trusts, 68 percent of those surveyed “say they have achieved or will achieve the American Dream.” That stands in marked contrast to how they view their current financial situation, especially with only 32 percent now labeling their personal finances as “excellent or good.” Back in 2007, before the recession took full effect, over half of Americans expressed that high level of confidence. With the unemployment rate stuck above nine percent and more than one-fourth of single-family homes underwater, that insecurity appears justified. Add to that the effect, both psychological and economic, of high food and gas prices , and largely stagnant wages also become a threat. Although those surveyed expressed faith in the economic mobility associated with the American dream, the vast majority don’t think they should go it alone. All of 83 percent said government should play a role in supporting economic mobility, and 58 percent said they though the government could do more, too. A particularly strong desire was expressed to see the government better help middle- and lower-class Americans. In fact, 80 percent say the government is currently not effectively helping those two groups. And just over half of those surveyed, 54 percent think the government helps the “wrong people” when it does intervene. “Americans are looking to policy makers to support their efforts to get ahead,” said Erin Currier, project manager for Pew’s Economic Mobility Project, in a release . “Even in the wake of the Great Recession, there is a strong belief that people can work hard and be successful.” Those surveyed, by and large, know what role they want the government to play in creating an economically-mobile country, too: the two most popular choices being “ensuring all children get a quality education” (88 percent) and “promoting job creation” (79 percent). It’s not that Americans only want to be rich, either. Above all, actually, 85 percent of those surveyed said it was financial stability, not a rise in economic status, that they valued most. Only 13 percent said the opposite.

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Fewer Americans Falling Behind On Their Credit Cards

May 24, 2011

NEW YORK — Late payments on credit cards fell to their lowest level in 15 years during the first three months of 2011, TransUnion said Tuesday. Nationwide, the rate of payments 90 days or more past due on bank-issued cards dropped to 0.74 percent in the first quarter, down from 1.11 percent a year ago. The delinquency rate is the lowest level since the third quarter of 1996, TransUnion said. It peaked in the first quarter of 2009 at 1.32 percent. Improved card payment habits come despite stubbornly high unemployment, noted Ezra Becker, vice president of research and consulting in TransUnion’s financial services business unit. Becker said research shows that cards play such an important role in money management during periods of unemployment that users are making an effort to prioritize their payments. One of the main reasons for the gains is that card users continue to pay down their credit card balances. The average credit card debt per borrower dropped to $4,679 for the quarter, down 9 percent from $5,165 a year ago. TransUnion said balances haven’t been this low since the third quarter of 2000. There are other factors contributing to the shift. One is that consumers are more aware of the dangers and costs of carrying large balances. Even though the widespread fear of sudden unemployment has lessened, the shock of the recession led many to take a new approach to using credit. In addition, Moody’s estimates banks wrote off about $74.5 billion in uncollectible credit card debt in the last few years. That fact, combined with strict regulations on card policies that took effect last year, has made them more cautious about who gets cards, and how large credit limits are. “It’s not wide open floodgates,” Becker said, even though banks are starting to issue more cards. TransUnion also noted that the recovery is not uniform across the country. There are 18 states that have delinquency rates higher than the national average, including Nevada, which leads the nation with a 1.16 delinquency rate. Nevada was among the hardest-hit states in the housing foreclosure crisis, and has an unemployment rate of 12.5 percent, well ahead of the 9 percent national rate. The forecast is for delinquency rates to edge down for the rest of the year, ending 2011 at around 0.7 percent. While there is some data showing an increase in credit card use, TransUnion does not expect balances to increase.

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States Shorten Duration For Unemployment Benefits

May 22, 2011

WASHINGTON — Some of the states that have drained their unemployment insurance funds are cutting the number of weeks that a laid-off worker can count on those benefits. Legislators are trying to limit tax increases for businesses to replenish the pool and are hoping the federal government keeps stepping in when the economy slumps. Michigan, Missouri and Arkansas recently reduced the maximum number of weeks that the jobless can get state unemployment benefits. Florida is on the verge of doing so. Unemployment in those states ranges from 7.8 percent in Arkansas to 11.1 percent in Florida. The benefit cuts come as legislatures deal with the damage that the recession inflicted on state unemployment insurance programs. The sharp increase in the number of people who lost their jobs drained the reservoir of money dedicated to paying out benefits. About 30 states borrowed more than $44 billion from the federal government to continue payments to laid-off workers. Many states hastened the insolvency of their funds by keeping balances at historically low levels going into the downturn. The burden of replenishing the funds and paying off the loans will fall primarily on businesses through higher taxes, but the benefit cuts are an effort to limit the tax increases. States usually provide up to 26 weeks of benefits to laid-off workers. Michigan and Missouri have cut that to a maximum 20 weeks. Arkansas went to 25. Florida is considering a more complex change that would link the duration of benefits to the strength of the economy. The cap would range from 23 weeks during periods of double-digit unemployment to as low as 12 weeks during periods of extremely low unemployment. The Florida Legislature approved the changes, but the governor hasn’t signed the bill. Once state benefits are exhausted, laid-off workers often are eligible for 13 weeks to 20 weeks of extended benefits. States and the federal government usually split the cost for that program. During recessions, Congress typically takes the aid a step further, providing several more months of emergency benefits entirely paid for by the federal government. The actions taken by legislatures apply specifically to state benefits, but also will reduce future federal benefits because the changes affect the formula used to calculate them. Allen McClendon, 40, of Kansas City, Mo., said he lost his job as a mechanic in August 2010 and has been getting unemployment benefits in Missouri since February. He said the payments allow him to buy food, make payments on his pickup truck and pay for gas and auto insurance. He is worried about what will happen if his state and federal benefits run out before he lands a job. Before that happens, he hopes to get training from a Missouri employment center that would allow him to get a commercial driver’s license or to repair heating and cooling units. “If they run out before I’ve completed my schooling and have got a job, then I’m really in trouble,” he said. “I’d so much rather be working than dealing with this,” he said. Benefits vary from state to state, but average about $300 a week, or about one-third of a recipient’s previous wages. In good economic times, most of the unemployed find a new job before their benefits expire. But in times of high unemployment, states have come to count on extra help from the federal government. Some say that reliance is playing a role in the bills to cap benefits. “A lot of states are basically saying, `Hey, why are we paying for these benefits when, in a recession, the federal government will step in?’” said Steve Woodbury, an economics professor at Michigan State University. Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., said relying on the federal government to keep up the cash flow is risky. She said last year’s fight to extend unemployment benefits was difficult, with Democrats barely able to generate the votes necessary to pass a bill. “I think it would be an error in judgment to assume that the Republican House would extend unemployment benefits,” she said. Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, said Congress in the future might worry that repeated extensions of unemployment benefits would serve as a deterrent to finding a job. “There’s some truth to that” concern, said Hatch, the top Republican on the Senate Finance Committee, which has jurisdiction over the program. Employers pay both state and federal taxes for unemployment insurance. States collect the taxes that pay for basic benefits. The federal taxes help pay for administering the program and providing the federal government’s share of extended benefits. State tax collections will have increased about 44 percent since 2009, according to the Department of Labor. Still, as a percentage of wages paid, unemployment insurance taxes are at historically low levels, less than 1 percent. When the unemployment insurance program began in 1938, the tax rate for unemployment insurance averaged about 2.7 percent of wages. Nevertheless, higher taxes in tough economic times are challenging businesses. States apply their highest tax rates to those industries with the most worker turnover. Those often are the same industries that are hardest hit by recession, such as manufacturers. In Florida, the minimum tax that is applied to businesses with low employee turnover went up from about $25 per employee to about $72 this year. The maximum tax for businesses with high turnover remained at $378 per employee. Companies could use that tax money to keep their doors open or to expand and hire more workers, said Teye Reeves, a policy director for the Florida Chamber of Commerce. “For our economy to thrive again, we need businesses to be strong,” Reeves said. “They want to have more employees. They want to open new stores. … They’ve got to have the capital to be able to provide those jobs.” But Rick McHugh, of the National Employment Law Project, argued that legislatures should not shore up their unemployment insurance programs by making workers share the pain. “It’s not a shared-sacrifice situation because, certainly in most states, employer organizations lobbied to keep the programs from being properly funded in advance of the recession,” McHugh said. “Now, they’re saying the program is broke so we have to cut benefits” McHugh said he’s worried that more states will seek to limit benefits when legislatures return to work next spring. Most have adjourned for the year. “It’s really a threat to the vitality of the safety nets because each state feels pressure to go to that lowest common denominator,” McHugh said. ___ Associated Press writer Heather Hollingsworth in Kansas City, Mo., contributed to this report. ___ Online: Labor Department: http://workforcesecurity.doleta.gov/unemploy/uifactsheet.asp National Association of State Workforce Agencies: http://www.workforceatm.org

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Japan Slides Back Into Recession– Yen suffers, but Losses Tempered

May 20, 2011

Japan Slides Back Into Recession– Yen suffers, but Losses Tempered

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FOREX: Japan Enters Recession, NZ Dollar Gains on Budget Surplus Outlook

May 19, 2011

FOREX: Japan Enters Recession, NZ Dollar Gains on Budget Surplus Outlook

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High-Earners Now Spending In A ‘Middle-Class Sort Of Way’

May 18, 2011

The nearly rich are being constrained by falling home prices, income gains that lag behind inflation, 9 percent unemployment and a reluctance to dip into savings after the recession, according to economist Robert Dye.

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Andrew Winston: Consumers Never Liked to Pay More for Green to Begin With

May 16, 2011

A week ago, the New York Times breathlessly declared in a cover story that during the recession, ” As Consumers Cut Spending, ‘Green’ Products Lose Allure. ” It’s a nice headline and makes it sound like the green product and business movement is in trouble. But the story, while interesting, doesn’t really change the reality for business. First, consumers never liked to pay more for green and, second, consumer pressure is not the biggest force driving the greening of business. Here’s the story. The Times piece focuses on the rise and (sort of) fall of Clorox Green Works cleaning products. Launched with much fanfare in 2008, Green Works quickly became the biggest player in the niche green cleaning space, hitting $100 million in sales before falling to $60 million in the recession (which is still a very respectable number in this market space). The Times crows that “As recession gripped the country, the consumer’s love affair with green products, from recycled toilet paper to organic foods to hybrid cars, faded like a bad infatuation.” So green products are on their way out, right? Not quite. First, as the next sentence points out, “sales at farmers’ markets and Prius sales are humming along now” (fyi, Prius sales jumped 70% in February as oil prices rose). So two of the three categories the Times uses to make its point are actually growing, not fading. Second, at the end of the article, a fascinating chart shows the “green share” of household products holding steady at about 2 percent over the last few years. The conventional brands like Clorox have flattened out — even as Clorox sales dipped, the total number of entrants has continued to grow. The niche brands, such as Method and Seventh Generation, have continued to nibble away at market share and actually grew during the recession. To the extent that the premium-priced green products named by the Times have taken a hit, consumers’ disdain isn’t news: Recession or not, mass consumers never loved paying extra for green. Asking people to pay more for green is usually doomed. Green has always been most effective as the “3rd button” (as my co-author and I called it in our book Green to Gold ) to press in marketing pitches, after price and quality. The Prius is the premium-priced exception that does not disprove the rule. It’s is a special case, since the purchase confers a range of emotional and value-laden benefits that household products just don’t have (critics call the pride of ownership smugness — and, yes, I own one). Therefore, in the trenches of consumer product development, the real story is the pursuit of more sustainable products that, as P&G execs say, create “no tradeoffs” for customers. Why ask people to pay more? As more companies present green products at no additional cost, Wal-Mart and others will be happy to give them more shelf space, because what’s really happening with consumers is subtler than a supposedly fading infatuation with green. As the Times story indicates, there is no rise in the percentage of “true green” consumers who will pay more for sustainable products. But there is a serious rise in the number of so-called “conflicted” or “conscious” consumers , which has been building for years. These buyers, who are quickly becoming the majority of consumers, not a niche segment, want it all. They demand more sustainable products at the same or lower price. The last sentence of the Times article actually captures this phenomenon: “Sarah Pooler, 55, said she did not normally buy green products but would pick them up if they were on sale… ‘Bottom line, if it’s green and it’s a good deal, I’ll buy it’, said Ms. Pooler. And so the race is still on to provide green products at the same price and quality. But exactly because Ms. Pooler and millions of other buyers are still waiting for that price equality, I would argue that what is and has been driving the greening of business is not consumer pressure but a mix macro-level forces and operational sustainability success stories, the countless examples of reduced packaging, lowered toxicity, and condensed versions of products(in detergents for example) that save shelf space and tons of energy in shipping and storage. At the macro level, the greening of products and companies is accelerating because the sustainability drivers are only getting stronger . Rising resource prices, ever-increasing transparency demands about what’s in every product, and continuing pressure up the supply chain from business customers are just a few of the big forces. Does anyone in the consumer product space seriously think Wal-Mart (and other retailers) will stop demanding sustainability-driven operational and product changes just because of the recession? On the contrary, the need to lower costs in the face of rising commodity prices is making eco-efficiency even more economic. So even if consumers develop fickle infatuations with certain products, the business world is clearly developing a deep, abiding love of — or at least growing respect for — the power of sustainability. This post first appeared at Harvard Business Online .

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Bryce Covert: Gas Prices up, Wages Down, Americans Caught in the Middle

May 11, 2011

Cross-posted from New Deal 2.0 . When picturing people who are so far into debt they can’t get on top of their bills, many likely see images of flat screen TVs, Escalades, and giant, unnecessary houses. But the sad truth is that one of the biggest reasons Americans carry $796.5 billion in revolving debt is that wages have stagnated while the cost of necessities rose. That’s particularly true now, at the end of a decade where wages actually dropped, 13.7 million people are unemployed, and prices are through the roof. Gas prices are soaring . The average price is up 80 cents per gallon since January, up to $3.96 . With Americans consuming about 140 gallons per year, that’s an extra $112 billion over the course of 2011 that consumers will have to shell out at the pump. So is rent. It is too damn high . A new study came out recently that showed the level of renters spending more than half of their income on rent is the highest in half a century. That’s not just low-income people, either. “About 26 percent of renters — or 10.1 million people — spent more than half their pre-tax household income on rent and utilities in 2009,” the Washington Post reported. Under ideal circumstances, renters aren’t supposed to spend more than 30% of their income on housing. Not to mention buying food. Restaurants are now considering raising prices due to rising commodity costs. Prices for purchased meals and beverages rose almost 2% between March 2010 and March 2011, the biggest increase since November 2009. And health care is still unaffordable for too many of us. Last year, four in 10 Americans struggled to pay their medical bills and 40% had to forgo needed care due to high costs. What do Americans do when we can’t afford the necessities? What we’ve learned to do over the past 30 years as our wages stagnated: use credit cards to plug the gaping holes. Only this time it’s worse, because wages have actually shrunk over the past decade, with the median family’s earnings falling from $52,388 a year in 2000 to $47,127 in 2010. We still have 9% unemployment. And 27% of Americans had no personal savings as of February this year, up from 22% 18 months before that. Meanwhile, access to credit is flowing less quickly than it was before the recession — and when it does flow, it comes with overpriced fees and interest. While banks are getting back into lending to riskier, lower-income consumers, it’s a slow trickle. Most card mailings are targeting the wealthy, with only 17% going to borrowers with dinged credit scores — compared to 39% in 2007. And the cards those consumers are offered come with higher fees and interest rates . The NYTimes reports, for example, “Capital One… is offering low-end cards that carry interest rates of 18 percent or higher and annual fees of up to $50.” The ability to cover up our income inequality and wage stagnation with easy credit is coming to end. So now what are workers supposed to do when they can’t afford life’s basics?

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Robert Kuttner: The Jobs Numbers and the President’s Job

May 9, 2011

The economy added 244,000 jobs in April. That should be good news for President Obama and the Democrats. But according to the Economic Policy Institute , at this rate of job growth it would take until the fall of 2016 for unemployment to come back down to where it was before the recession. The next election, unfortunately, is in 2012. Among the not-so-great items in the Labor Department’s report : Fourteen million people are still officially unemployed, and millions more have given up looking for work. Counting those out of the labor force or working part time but wanting full time jobs, the total number of unemployed or underemployed was just under 25 million — not significantly better than at the pit of the recession. The number of people with involuntary part time work actually rose by 167,000 in April. Among young workers, 24 or younger, the jobless rate was a sickening 17.6 percent. And among African Americans, 16.1 percent were out of work. These happen to be two groups who voted with great enthusiasm for the president in 2008. Despite the growth in employment, the overall percentage of Americans in the labor force did not increase. The workforce is still more than a million people smaller than it was a year ago — meaning that the economy will need to grow at a much faster rate to soak up the unemployed. There still 5.8 million workers who have been jobless for more than six months, still close to an economic record. The longer they stay unemployed, the less likely they are to ever find a job. Employers tend to give preference to job seekers who have jobs, or who have been out of work for short periods. While the private sector added more than a quarter million jobs, the public sector kept laying off workers. State and local government shrank by another 22,000 in April. This is a confession of a policy failure. In a severe economic downturn, government should be adding jobs to make up for the softness of the private sector. But with austerity fever sweeping both parties, the idea of a public jobs program is off the table. President Obama had a good couple of weeks. He deftly surfaced his long-form birth certificate, a move whose timing baffled pundits until the other shoe dropped — and the public appreciated that he was grappling with very consequential matters while his opponents were mired in trivia. The mission to capture or kill Osama bin Laden displayed presidential nerve and leadership that has often seemed missing in this administration. But despite the president’s enhanced stature on national security issues and his success in showing up his critics, the 2012 election will be mainly about the economy. With so many Americans still out of work, a large number of voters have a co-worker, friend, or family member suffering from joblessness. It is easy to construct a national scenario in which Obama is plainly a more formidable candidate than any likely Republican nominee. The trouble is that we elect presidents state by state. And it will be hard for an incumbent to win if the economy in the key swing states of the Midwest remains deeply depressed. It might be easier if the president were pushing hard for a robust recovery program while the Republicans were promoting slash-and-burn austerity. Obama could then point to the sluggish recovery and clearly lay it at the Republicans’ door. But Obama himself, though he has admirably defended Social Security and Medicare, forcing Republicans to distance themselves from Rep. Paul Ryan’s proposed plan to turn Medicare into a voucher, is nonetheless giving more attention to deficit reduction than to job creation. Long after the skirmishes over this year’s budget cease dominating the news, when the government stays open and the United States does not default on our national debt, the major issue before the voters in 2012 will still be the condition of the economy, not the deficit. Though Obama’s version of fiscal austerity is kinder and gentler than that of the Republicans, cutting the deficit while the recovery is still fragile could well slow growth and blur political responsibility. The ambiguous April jobs numbers are a signal not of green shoots but of the perils of premature belt-tightening. There are now three parties of austerity dominating the economic debate, while the party of jobs and growth is scarcely heard from. We have the Republicans demanding draconian cuts in the name of fiscal responsibility, even though their proposed tax reductions would leave the deficit almost where it was. Then there is the Wall Street austerity party, willing to entertain tax increases (on others) as well as program cuts. And finally, the White House, with a more moderate forced march to fiscal discipline, but still a misplaced emphasis on deficit reduction. In November 2012, if unemployment is still high, Obama will get scant credit for a better fiscal picture. He owes it to his supporters, to America’s millions of idled workers, and to his own re-election prospects to pay more attention to jobs. Robert Kuttner is co-editor of The American Prospect and a senior fellow at Demos. His latest book is A Presidency in Peril .

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PIMCO: Only A Recession Would Stop Us From Shorting U.S. Bonds

May 6, 2011

PIMCO’s Bill Gross, who runs the world’s largest bond fund, said on Friday the only way he would reverse his “short” position on U.S. government-related bonds is if the United States heads into another recession. Since the April 11 news that Gross turned more bearish on U.S. Treasury debt, reflecting his growing worries over the country’s fiscal deficit and debt burden, Treasury prices have been soaring. On Friday Treasury prices fell though after a better than expected U.S. monthly employment report. Asked Friday Gross told Reuters: “Treasury yields are currently yielding substantially less than historical averages when compared with inflation. Perhaps the only justification for a further rally would be weak economic growth or a future recession that substantially lowered inflation and inflationary expectations.” The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was down 7/32, with the yield at 3.18 percent, on Friday. On April 11, the yield stood at 3.58 percent. Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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U.S. Economy Continues To Add Jobs, Just Not The Right Kind

May 6, 2011

NEW YORK — With Friday’s relatively encouraging unemployment data , the United States has officially added to its workforce for 14 consecutive months. Unfortunately, economists say, the nation may not be adding a broad enough range of the kinds of high-wage jobs needed to solidify economic recovery. In April, the U.S. economy added 244,000 jobs — the third straight month to see an average of over 200,000 new positions created, according to new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. While state and local governments continued to cut back, private employers added 268,000 jobs, the largest monthly gain since February 2006. The unemployment rate edged up to 9.0 percent from 8.8 percent in March, however, the first increase since last November. Amid signs of a stagnating economy — a weakening gross domestic product, slowing growth in the manufacturing sector , a spike in claims for unemployment insurance — economists wonder if the labor market is really as strong as the gain in private-sector jobs suggests. “Today’s numbers seems a bit out of place with all the other economic reports that consistently portray an economy that is breathing hard, an economy that is losing steam,” said Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at The Economic Outlook Group. “So you have to ask yourself, ‘What’s going on here?’ This is probably going to be one of the strongest numbers of the year and in subsequent months we’ll see hiring being scaled back.” The monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics report is composed from two different sources — the household employment survey, which is measured by contacting American workers, and payroll employment as reported by employers. When payroll numbers and the unemployment rate appear to be moving in the opposite direction from each other, economists say: look at the trends. The trends show a labor market still struggling on a number of fronts, particularly in the creation of higher-wage positions in some key sectors. Employment in information and financial services, construction, and transportation and warehousing changed little in April. Manufacturing has been a bright spot of the recovery, but the rate of growth has slowed over the past two months . The professional and business services, health care and leisure and hospitality sectors continued to increase employment, however. The biggest industry jump in April, though, was in the retail sector, which added 57,000 new positions. Retail has consistently been one of the biggest winners since the recession, but the sector’s average hourly wage was only $9.03 as of 2010. Despite private employers’ best month of job creation in five years, the economy has yet to see a big uptick in wages. In April, the average workweek remained static at at 34.3 hours, while average hourly earnings only increased by 3 cents, or 0.1 percent. During the past 12 months, average hourly earnings only increased by 1.9 percent. Economists said this trend should begin to improve with the broader unemployment numbers, though they cautioned that significant wage increases are unlikely to arrive in the near future. “If you continue to get these kind of reports — 244,000 new jobs — the laws of supply and demand start to take hold and wages will go up. You start to get a shift in the power of the labor market from employers to workers,” said William M. Rodgers III is Professor of Public Policy and chief economist at the Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers University. “But until you get the unemployment rate in the 6 percent range, until you get there, you’re not going to see much upward pressure on wages.” The financial services sector and the housing market propelled much of the economy’s growth before those bubbles popped and the recession hit. In Rodgers’ view, the missing piece of the puzzle remains a new high-paying industry to lead the economy’s drive forward. “We’ve seen an average of 130,000 jobs a month over the last 15 months and that’s leading to a kind of bifurcated recovery. Only those at the top of the job ladder are starting to see good opportunities, while those at the bottom and the middle of the ladder, they’re still faced with some major challenges,” he said. “This is a report to build on. We need many, many, many more reports like this, where you’re seeing strong job creation such that we’ll move out of the bifurcated recovery and that opportunity will be more broadly based.”

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More U.S. Oil Drilling Won’t Lower Gas Prices, Experts Say

May 6, 2011

WASHINGTON — Republicans used the politically potent argument about the cost of gas Thursday to pass a bill expanding offshore oil and gas exploration. But analysts say there’s a major flaw in their case: More drilling will barely budge prices. The Restarting American Offshore Leasing Now Act , which passed 266 to 144 with 33 Democrats buying into the scheme, orders the Department of the Interior to move quickly to offer three leases to drill in the Gulf of Mexico and one off the coast of Virginia. The bill demands that the leases be executed by next year. But the legislation won’t reduce the price at the pump, experts said. Nor would a vastly more ambitious effort have much impact. “It’s not going to change the price of oil overnight, and it’s probably not going to have a huge impact on the price of oil ever,” said Mike Lynch of Strategic Energy and Economic Research, Inc. referring not just to those four leases, but to expanding all U.S. drilling. Yet House Republicans — backed by nearly three dozen Democrats — held out their push for exploitation of the four tracts as a panacea for the weak economy and high gas prices. “Republicans are standing with the American people, who want us to increase the supply of American energy that will lower costs, reduce our dependence on foreign oil, and create jobs here in America,” House Speaker John Boenher (R-Ohio) proudly declared . “And I’m certain –- with $4 per gallon gas -– the American people will remember who listened to them, and who didn’t.” “I think high gas prices and high energy costs are crushing jobs and are just unnecessary,” Rep. Glenn Thompson (R-Pa.) told The Huffington Post. “When we have access to domestic resources, gas prices go down. That’s what happened in 2008 when Bush opened up the outer-continental shelf.” Rep. Doc Hastings (R-Wash.), the bill’s lead sponsor, made the same argument Wednesday . “If we send a signal to the markets that we’re going to go after the resources that we have in this country,” he told bloggers on a conference call, “I think that will have a positive impact on driving the price of gasoline down. As a matter of fact, that happened in 2008.” But people who study oil markets for a living say they are they are wrong. “I would really doubt that that [2008 price drop] would have been because we committed to more drilling,” said Phyllis Martin, an analyst with the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), which just released its detailed, annual outlook on energy supply and prices . “It was most likely the recession,” Martin explained. “When demand cuts back, the production cuts back and the prices fall.” As for opening four new drilling leases, that’s not even a drop in the bucket. Analyst Lynch said that, if the nation took an extremely vigorous stance on oil exploitation — and relaxed restrictions on the Gulf and drilled in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska and off the coast of California, where America’s most easily accessible offshore oil is located — it still would not have much of an impact. “With the exception of the deep Gulf, where there are restrictions, people are drilling as fast as they can,” said Lynch, who regards himself as a moderate Republican. He is bearish on oil prices and believes the cost of crude will drop soon, regardless of an government policies. “You might, under really optimistic scenarios, over five or six years, add 2 million barrels a day of production,” said Lynch, who favors more drilling, even if he rejects the politicians’ arguments. “On a global scale, it’s significant. But we would still be big importers — we would still be dependent on foreign oil.” And prices would not move much because of it, the analysts explained. Oil is traded on a world market, and the United States does not have enough petroleum to increase the global supply, which would reduce demand — and thus the price — for fuel. “In 2009, the U.S. produced about 7 percent of what was produced in the entire world, so increasing the oil production in the U.S. is not going to make much of a difference in world markets and world prices,” said the EIA’s Martin. “It just gets lost. It’s not that much.” And boosting drilling in the outer continental shelf? “What comes out of the OCS is about 1 percent of the world total, and that’s not enough to affect world prices,” Martin said, even noting that she believes there are even more untapped reserves than officials can estimate at the moment. Republicans are right about some things, the experts agreed. More drilling would would mean more jobs and more tax revenue, if the industry’s subsidies and tax breaks were revoked. It could also reduce oil imports — even if gas prices wouldn’t drop. More offshore drilling, in fact, would be a huge boon for the oil and gas companies that could do it. “It would be a lot of money for a lot people, but it’s not going to make us energy independent,” said Lynch, the analyst. The oil and gas industry has poured $8.8 million into the campaigns of the drilling bill’s lead sponsors. Lynch wouldn’t rule out the idea of the United States becoming energy independent, someday, but rated the odds as slim. “On a scale of Osama bin Laden going to church with Pat Robertson — it’s close to that,” he said. What would bring down prices? In the short term, much broader market forces, such as those that prompted Thursday’s huge oil sell-off. Since the United States remains the largest consumer of petroleum, greater efficiency at home will help in the longer term. Lynch noted that President Barack Obama’s past campaign suggestion for Americans to keep their tires properly inflated actually had merit. “It sounds stupid, but he was right,” said Lynch, noting only half-jokingly that it might have paid during the recession to employ all the out-of-work lawyers as tire pressure readers at gas stations. The biggest factor that would drive down gas prices, though, would be more drilling around the world. “If you said, ‘let’s take the equipment and send it to Iraq, and build pipelines,’ that’s going to flood the market. The easiest oil is in Iraq,” Lynch said. He added that other rich supplies could be tapped “in a number of other places like Colombia or Argentina or Brazil.” And what would happen to world prices if America went all out on drilling? “It would not make the Saudi king stay up at night worrying about his revenue,” said Lynch. Sam Stein contributed to this report.

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‘Special Factors’ Blamed For Big Jump In Unemployment Claims

May 5, 2011

WASHINGTON — The number of people applying for unemployment benefits surged last week to the highest level in eight months, a troubling sign a day ahead of the government’s report on April employment. The Labor Department said Thursday that the 43,000 spike in applications to a seasonally adjusted 474,000 last week was largely the result of unusual factors, including a high number of school systems in New York that closed for spring break. Still, it marked the third increase in four weeks. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, rose for the fourth straight week to 431,250. Applications have jumped 89,000, or 23 percent, in the past four weeks. “The trend is clearly upward, so that’s disconcerting,” said Kurt Karl, chief U.S. economist for Swiss Re. “When you get three or four weeks in a row of special factors, they’re no longer so special.” Applications near 375,000 are typically consistent with sustainable job growth. Weekly applications peaked during the recession at 659,000. Rising unemployment applications and other weak economic data this week have prompted some analysts to worry that higher fuel prices may be causing employers to slow their pace of hiring. The government is scheduled to release its April jobs report on Friday. Economists are projecting that the economy likely added 185,000 jobs in April and the unemployment rate may remain 8.8 percent, but some are now saying the numbers could be lower. Thursday’s report also doesn’t bode well for hiring in May, economists said. A Labor Department spokesman blamed much of the latest increase on the unexpected spike caused by New York schools. That resulted in 25,000 layoffs. The department didn’t anticipate the closures when making seasonal adjustments, the spokesman said. The employees affected were bus drives and cafeteria workers, not teachers. One economists was skeptical that school recesses, presumably that have been on the calendar all year, would be difficult to account for. “Whatever school holidays may have occurred in New York were most likely associated with the Easter and Passover holidays, which should not have come as a surprise to those who calculated the seasonal adjustment factors for this year,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc. Other factors also contributed to the increase, the Labor spokesman said. Oregon launched its own extended unemployment benefit program, which caused an increase in overall applications in the state for unemployment benefits. And auto-related layoffs rose, Some companies have shut down or slowed production because of parts shortages stemming from the earthquake in Japan. Those disruptions are mostly affecting Japanese automakers with plants in the North America. Honda Motor Corp. has slowed production at 10 of its U.S. and Canadian plants. Toyota has cut its U.S. production by two-thirds. Both have said they aren’t laying off workers. But the slowdowns also affect auto-supply companies. Still, applications have risen sharply in recent weeks, raising concerns that high gas and food prices are cutting into consumer spending and slowing the economy. Businesses are also facing higher costs for raw materials, which reduce profit margins. They may be cutting back on hiring as a cost-saving measure. The national average for gas was $3.99 a gallon on Thursday, according to the AAA Daily Fuel Gauge. That is 30 cents higher than a month earlier. Other recent data have also pointed to a weaker job market. A private trade group said Wednesday that a measure of employment growth in the service sector, which employs 90 percent of the work force, slowed for the second straight month. The report, by the Institute for Supply Management, still showed that employment rose, but at the slowest pace in 7 months. The number of people continuing to receive benefits rose 74,000 to 3.7 million. Millions more unemployed are receiving aid from extended benefit programs put in place during the recession. All told, more than 8 million people received unemployment benefits for the week ending April 16, the most recent data available. That was 170,000 fewer than the previous week.

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Philip N. Cohen: Women’s Black-White Employment Gap

May 3, 2011

The new employment realities. Nancy Folbre’s good new post on the ” Super Sad True Jobs Story ” reminded me that I haven’t updated the Black-White women’s employment gap graph since last fall. As you may recall, before the recession Black women had higher employment rates than White women. Since the summer of 2009 that’s been reversed, and has stayed that way for almost two years. Here’s the graph (data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics ): I can’t face the prospect of making up terms to match Mancession and Hecovery for this race pattern. But you get the idea. Cross-posted from the Family Inequality blog.

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10 Countries Where Unemployment Has Soared

April 30, 2011

Since the financial crisis first pulled the world into the Great Recession, unemployment has become a global problem. A new report released by the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development entitled “Society at a Glance 2011 – OECD Social Indicators” includes data on the rising levels of global unemployment between 2007-2009, the years where the recession peaked. Many countries on the list have seen high unemployment rates for years, most notably Spain, whose unemployment rate recently hit a Eurozone record at 21.3 percent, with 4.9 million Spaniards now jobless. Other countries have trended in the opposite direction, however. Germany, for one, has watched its unemployment rate fall to 7.1 percent from 7.8 percent at the time of the report’s publication. The United States has also seen some recent improvement, albeit notably less steep than Germany’s drop. Despite these improvements, the OECD’s report finds that unemployment rates overall have increased across the globe, with the fews exceptions including Israel, Poland and South Africa. Below are the nations whose unemployment rates have risen most since the Great Recession:

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Good News: Corporate Relocations Up; Bad News: Fewer Employees Want To Go

April 28, 2011

Relocation managers across the U.S. are expressing optimism that the worst of the recession is now in the rearview mirror. Responding to Atlas Van Lines’ 44th annual Corporate Relocation Survey, 72% of the relocation managers polled say they believe their respective companies will fare better in 2011. The optimism rate among large firms surveyed (more than 5,000 workers) jumps to 80%. “Our relocation research has served as a solid barometer of…

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Robert Reich: The Wageless Recovery

April 26, 2011

This week’s biggest economic show occurs tomorrow (Wednesday) when Fed chair Ben Bernanke steps in front of the cameras for the Fed’s first-ever news conference. The question on everyone’s mind: Will the Fed signal it’s now more worried about inflation than recession? Much of Wall Street thinks inflation is now the biggest threat to the U.S. economy. As has been the case in the past, the Street is dead wrong. The biggest threat is falling into another recession. The most significant economic news from the first quarter of 2011 is the decline in real wages. That’s unusual in a recovery, to say the least. But it’s easily explained this time around. In order to keep the jobs they have, millions of Americans are accepting shrinking paychecks. If they’ve been fired, the only way they can land a new job is to accept even smaller ones. The wage squeeze is putting most households in a double bind. Before the recession, they’d been able to pay the bills because they had two paychecks. Now, they’re likely to have one-and-a half, or just one, and it’s shrinking. Add to this the continuing decline in the value of the biggest asset most people own – their homes — and what do you get? Consumers who won’t and can’t buy enough to keep the economy going. That spells recession. Why doesn’t Wall Street get it? For one thing, because lenders always worry more about inflation than borrowers — and, in general, the wealthier members of a society tend to lend their money to people who are poorer than they are. But Wall Street’s inflation fears are also being stoked by several specifics. First are price upswings in food and energy. The Street doesn’t seem to understand that when most peoples’ wages are dropping, additional dollars they spend on groceries and at the gas pump means fewer dollars they have left to spend in the rest of the economy. Rather than cause inflation, this is likely to lead to more job losses. The Street is also worried that the Fed’s easy money policies are pushing the dollar down and thereby fueling inflation – as everything we buy abroad becomes more expensive. But if wages are stuck in the mud and everything we buy abroad costs more, Americans have even fewer dollars to spend. This also spells recession, not inflation. Finally, the Street worries that if Democrats and Republicans fail to agree to a plan to cut the budget deficit, the credit-worthiness of the United States as a whole will be in jeopardy – causing interest rates to rocket and inflation to explode. Standard & Poors, the erstwhile credit-rating agency, has already sounded the alarm. The Street has it backwards. Over the long term, the deficit does have to be tackled. But not now. When job growth remains tepid, when wages are dropping, and when the value of most households’ major asset is declining, government has to step in to maintain overall demand. This is the worst possible time to cut public spending or reduce the money supply. The biggest irony is that the Street is doing wonderfully well right now, in contrast to most Americans. Corporate profits for the first quarter of the year are way up. That’s largely because corporate payrolls are down. Payrolls are down because big companies have been shifting much of their work abroad where business is booming. The Commerce Department recently reported that over the last decade American multinationals (essentially all large American corporations) eliminated 2.9 million American jobs while adding 2.4 million abroad. What the Commerce Department didn’t say is the pace is picking up. In 2000, 30 percent of GE’s business was overseas and 46 percent of its employees; now 60 percent of its business is outside the U.S., as are 54 percent of its employees. Over the past five years, Oracle added twice as many workers overseas as in the US; 63 percent of its employees now work abroad. Corporations are simultaneously finding ways to cut the pay of their remaining U.S. workers — not just threatening job losses if they don’t agree to the cuts, but also automating the work or sending it to non-union states. (The Wall Street Journal’s editorial page, an unremittingly reliable barometer of Street thought, argued earlier this week that such states offer workers the freedom to choose whether to join a union — in reality, the freedom to lose even more bargaining power and be forced to accept even lower wages.) America’s jobless recovery is becoming a wageless recovery. That puts the odds of another recession greater than the risk of inflation. Wall Street and its representatives in Washington don’t understand — or don’t want to. Robert Reich is the author of Aftershock: The Next Economy and America’s Future , now in bookstores. This post originally appeared at RobertReich.org .

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Kit Yarrow, Ph.D.: Soaring Prices No Match for Empowered Consumers

April 19, 2011

Americans are paying more for just about everything these days. The double whammy of higher oil prices and poor weather conditions have resulted in rising manufacturing costs, which are passed along to consumers in the form of price jumps (often Olympic-sized). As the U.S. economy strengthens, many fear these price increases will snuff out the fragile flame of consumer optimism and spending. However, in my research I’ve found the recession has created a more resilient and rational consumer — one that is still wary but much more empowered and informed than before the Great Recession. Weather Woes Volatile weather wreaked havoc on harvests, which in turn has affected the price of fruits, vegetables, wheat, grains and cotton — otherwise known as groceries and clothing. It’s also resulted in higher insurance premiums for consumers. Fruits and vegetables cost about 23% more today than they did three months ago. And that means everything from juice to ketchup will cost more too. Higher grain prices make it more expensive to feed a cow, so beef and fast food are pricier too. Clothing manufacturers are trying things like sewing cotton garments with synthetic thread to keep prices down. Still, consumers can expect a 10% increase in apparel prices this spring. The price of cotton has doubled in the past year because of poor weather conditions in China and restrictions on exports from India. Oil Increased international demand and political unrest in the Mideast have increased the price of oil, which means transportation and anything that requires shipping costs more. The average American drives 13,476 miles a year in a vehicle that gets 24 miles per gallon. The average cost of gas a year ago this week was $2.86 — today it’s $3.81. That means the average car owner is paying about $45 a month more for gas today than they were a year ago. Pricier gas is also partly responsible for a 22% increase in airfare and public transportation fares in the past six months. The Big Question The big question, of course, is whether these inflationary trends will drive down consumer spending. Since the economic health of the country is so firmly tied to consumer spending, it’s a serious question. I believe, the the answer is a qualified “no.” While many will certainly cut back on discretionary spending to compensate for higher priced basics there will not be an irrational “freak out.” Why? American consumers have been through a huge learning curve over the past several years while the recession rolled through the economy. Rather than be felled by the recession, the American consumer has emerged empowered. They have new ways of shopping and more resilience than ever. They’re more conscious of how they spend, more resourceful, and more demanding of retailers. In interview after interview consumers told me that they felt better about their spending habits following the recession. “Control” was the theme I heard more often than any other. “I feel more in control of my finances and so my future,” and “I’m never going to let my credit card debt get out of control again.” New Tricks Consumers shop differently now than they did before the recession. What might have started as a desperate hunt to get more for less turned into greater mastery of the marketplace. Aided by technology, consumers learned new research, bargaining and bartering skills. For example, many bid adieu to familiar retailers in favor of small online merchants they found on eBay and Etsy. Others explored things like online coupons and mobile price comparison shopping. And they’ve come to rely on each other more than the assumed expertise of businesses. Consumer reviews, blogs and ratings sites have skyrocketed in popularity. Which is why despite higher prices for groceries and apparel, retail sales increased last month for the ninth month in a row. Historically, gas prices are linked to consumer confidence. But not this time around. Consumer confidence actually rose this month despite a 5.6% increase in gas prices. This time around our newly empowered consumers have decreased their gas consumption 3.6%. It took consumers nearly a year to adjust their driving habits the last time we had a spike in prices. When consumers drive more slowly, keep their tires inflated and think twice about when they use their cars, they gain some control over what they pay at the pump. Mastery = Control = Confidence = Less Reactivity It’s time to reconsider the economists’ view of the American consumer as fragile, irrational and fickle. It’s going to take more than price increases to fell the American consumer. There are plenty of things that will, like unemployment. But that’s hardly irrational. Bonus Stat: With all these price increases is anything that’s less expensive? Computers and hotel stays.

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Poll: Rich Will Drastically Increase Luxury Spending This Year

April 15, 2011

NEW YORK (Michelle Nichols) – Rich Americans are expected to spend an extra $26.6 billion on luxury goods this year but they will do so with an eye toward value as the country recovers from recession, a poll released on Friday found. Spending on luxuries, excluding cars and travel, is set to rise 8 percent to $359 billion compared to 2010, according to the sixth annual American Express Publishing and Harrison Group survey. While the number of affluent families planning to spend more has almost doubled in the past three years, they are emerging from the recession seeking value, quality and service for their money, said Jim Taylor, vice chairman of Harrison Group. “There will be more money spent, but it doesn’t mean it won’t be spent without the prudent skills learned as the result of a very difficult recession,” Taylor said. “This is a survivor’s economy with people who have succeeded in surviving the recession demanding a new form of respect,” he told a news conference. The Survey of Affluence and Wealth in America polled 1,458 families with a discretionary income of more than $100,000 — representing the wealthiest 10 percent in the United States who account for about 50 percent of all consumer spending. It found that 15 percent of these families plan to spend more in 2011, up a quarter from 2010 and almost double from 2008. The number of families cutting spending was nearly halved from last year to 9 percent and down two-thirds from 2008. LESS ANXIOUS Rich families save an average of a quarter of their incomes annually, the poll found, and 34 percent said they were looking forward to spending more money this year. Taylor said that while 70 percent of affluent Americans still believe the country was in recession, they were less anxious. Concern over job loss has fallen 50 percent from 2010 and worries about the potential failure of their companies are down to 11 percent from 28 percent. Almost three-quarters said they had become more resourceful because of the recession. “In the end, the increase in spending we foresee is not a return to the wanderlust of the past, but rather, an expression of sensible, resourceful, self-confident consumers expanding their portfolio of needs,” he said. “The nearly $4 trillion in their money market funds gives these consumers the power to purchase with cash. Their value equation reflects the price of recession: mature judgment,” Taylor said. A 2010 stock market rally, which pushed up the Dow Jones Industrial Average 11 percent, has also helped sway consumers. Consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of U.S. economic activity, grew at a brisk 4 percent pace in the final three months of last year. But U.S. retail sales posted their smallest gain in nine months in March, as auto sales plunged and consumers felt the sting of higher gas prices. The online wealth survey was conducted from January 31 to February 14 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. (Editing by Xavier Briand) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Poll: Most Americans Say Taxes They Pay Are Fair

April 14, 2011

WASHINGTON — For all the complaining this time of year, most Americans actually think the taxes they pay are fair. Not that they’re cheering. Fewer people expect refunds this year than in previous years, a new Associated Press-GfK poll shows. But as Monday’s filing deadline approaches, the poll shows that 54 percent believe their tax bills are either somewhat fair or very fair, compared with 46 percent who say they are unfair. Should taxes be raised to eat into huge federal deficits? Among the public, 62 percent say they favor cutting government services to sop up the red ink. Just 29 percent say raise taxes. That’s sure to be a major issue as Congress takes up budget legislation for next year and the 2012 presidential campaign gets under way in earnest. On Wednesday, President Barack Obama revived his proposal to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans to help reduce government borrowing. In the poll, Democrats were more likely than Republicans to think their tax bills were fair. Liberals and moderates were more likely to think so than conservatives. Women more likely than men. Most whites thought their tax bills were fair; most non-whites didn’t. The young and the old – adults under 30 and seniors 65 and above – were much more likely to say their taxes were fair than those in their prime earning years. Surprisingly, there was little difference in the perception of fairness across income levels. But just because people say they pay a fair amount doesn’t mean that they think others do. Sandra Jennings, a retired teacher in South Bend, Ind., said her federal taxes are fair, but she thinks rich people get off too easily. Rich people, she said in an interview, “get all these loopholes. The middle class does not have loopholes.” Mari Lemelson of Edison, N.J., said, “I have a big problem with the millionaires, at least what I understand to be the millionaires’ tax breaks.” Jim Martel, an electrician from Weymouth, Mass., said his tax bill is already unfair, but he would be willing to pay more if he thought the money would be spent wisely. He’s not optimistic. “If I thought people in office had the right thing in mind and they were doing the right thing with the money instead of blowing it and wasting it and funding these stupid projects that are totally ridiculous, I wouldn’t have a problem with it,” Martel said. “But they don’t, so that’s what bothers me.” Monday is the filing deadline for federal tax returns – three days later than usual because a local holiday is being observed in the nation’s capital on Friday, the traditional deadline. Federal tax receipts are projected to hit their lowest level in 60 years when measured as a share of the overall economy. Tax receipts dipped during the recession and have stayed low in part because Congress has extended Bush-era tax cuts at every income level, leaving federal rates unchanged for much of the past decade. Residents in many states, however, have faced higher taxes because – unlike the federal government – states, school districts and municipalities must balance their budgets each year. The share of the public believing their tax bills were fair was nearly identical to an AP poll taken in 2007, even though fewer people than in the past said they expect to get refunds this year. Fifty-one percent of those polled said they expected refunds this year, down from 57 percent in 2009 and 66 percent in 2007. Many people who don’t expect refunds could be in for a pleasant surprise. Through March 25, about 87 percent of the individual returns processed by the Internal Revenue Service qualified for refunds. That’s about the same rate through the same period as last year. Ultimately, about 85 percent of individual returns qualified for refunds last year, totaling about $360 billion. The refunds averaged $3,000, about the same amount as so far this year. Economists say tax refunds typically provide a boost to the economy each spring. This year, however, more people say they plan to save, invest or use their refunds to pay down debts. Only 27 percent of the people surveyed said they plan to simply spend their tax refund, down from 38 percent in 2009. Forty-five percent said they would save or invest their refunds, compared with 35 percent in 2009. Forty-four percent said they would pay down debt, compared with 37 percent in 2009. “A lot of people got caught with too much debt going into this recession and may well take this as an opportunity to reduce their debt level rather than go out and rent that summer house,” said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor’s in New York. “When they’re scared, they are more likely to save it than if they are happy and feel like the good times will continue forever.” The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted March 24-28 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. ___ AP Polling Director Trevor Tompson, Deputy Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta and AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. Online: . http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

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Whistling Thru the Graveyard: Could CRE Follow Housing into Another Trough?

April 14, 2011

Housing and commercial real estate are seemingly going in opposite directions nationally with housing prices and sales totals continuing to fall and CRE markets taking steps toward recovery. However, the fear of a double-dip housing recession is tangible – if not real – and continues to tug naggingly on the CRE industry. When the recession began in 2007, the commercial real estate markets declines lagged but eventually paralleled the declines of…

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Unemployment Is Dropping — Except For Discouraged Workers

April 11, 2011

Some 6.3 million people have been out of work and looking for a job for more than six months. The employment-to-population ratio is lower than it was when the recession ended as companies have been slow to add to payrolls. And big sources of hiring in the past — government, health care and retailing — may not be able to reprise that role in the future as lawmakers limit outlays and consumers curb spending.

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Max Fraad Wolff: Suffer the Young

April 8, 2011

Two years into the official recovery, some things about the great recession are well known. Many other vital facts and contours are only beginning to emerge. A very distressing, on-going feature of the downturn is the disproportional havoc it is wreaking on the young. You have heard the last few years called a mancession. The disproportionate impact on male workers from declines in construction and manufacturing are well known. Less well known is that this recession continues to debilitate younger Americans disproportionally. America’s future continues to struggle. People under 35 years old are not getting the new jobs we create. Employment, home ownership, and wage increases are bypassing younger Americans. As state and local budgets are cut, education and services for the young are contracting especially sharply. Teachers and education workers are being let go. Head Start, supplemental nutrition programs and educational grants are being cut. Thus, we are likely to see younger Americans risk falling behind past generations and competitors in other nations. Real solutions will require us to get serious about the economic conditions of young people and stop simply evoking concern as an applause line. Home ownership among young Americans has contracted by a jaw dropping 10% over the last few years. The US Census tells us that home ownership rates among those under 35 have fallen from 43% in 2005 to 39% at the end of 2010. These rates continue to fall as this goes to press. Tighter credit standards, weak labor markets and rising down payment requirements all contribute. Younger households continue to be hard hit by foreclosure. Fewer young people can afford homes and losses of homes continue. Young families and couples have are missing the earnings, savings and credit scores required to form households and buy homes. This is also a contributor to the continued weakness in housing markets. Figure 1. Source US Census Housing Vacancies and Home Ownership (CPS/HPS) The younger you are in America the more likely you are to be poor. This has long been true, but has become pronounced across the great recession. In the years 2008 and 2009 we saw large increases in poverty nationally and particularly for the young. In 2008 14million Americans under 18, 19%, lived in poverty. By the close of 2009 we had 15.5million Americans under 18 living in poverty, 21%. Since the recession began, people under 18 years old have poverty rates 45% higher than the general US population. 6.3% lived of all Americans lived on less than 50% of the US poverty income level in 2009. 10.4% of Americans 18-24 lived on less than half of US poverty income in 2009. Poverty and severe poverty are concentrated among younger Americans. There is little doubt that youth centric poverty increase is continuing. We will have to wait for government data to update these statistics. We already know to be alarmed as we see federal, state and local officials targeting the young for massive cuts during rounds of budget balancing. Figure 2 US Census Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) 2010 Younger workers earn less, get less valuable benefits and tend to have fewer job protections. 25-34 year old Americans earned 80cents on the dollar for 55-64 year olds in 2009. Younger workers are paid lower wages at or above the same rate that we are used to seeing displayed for women workers, as against male workers. Clearly there are experience and productivity issues across age lines. There also seems to be a growing problem of poverty and limited upward mobility among younger Americans. Younger people have experienced higher unemployment rates over the last decade. This has become more pronounced during the recent recession. People need to be and should be working during their prime productive years, 24-35. Figure 3. BLS Data for Unadjusted Unemployment Rate. All Values for March 2001-2011 Across the last decade and particularly across the last few years, we are seeing labor force participation rates increasing for older workers and falling for younger workers. This is unusual and has received very little attention. Some of these shifts are explained by people going back to school during weak labor market periods. This does not explain the entire change or the longer term trend. Figure 4 below looks at the falling labor force participation rate among 20-35 year olds and rising labor force participation among those over 55. We are seeing higher unemployment and lower labor market participation among the young who are the poorest group by age. Needless to say, this is a disturbing trend and requires significant attention. Figure 4. BLS Data Unadjusted Labor Force Participation Rates by Age Increasingly difficult conditions for younger Americans should be of paramount concern. This is especially true as we enter into an election super-cycle defined by budget cut proposals. Younger Americans tend to receive less focus and more than their fair share of cuts. Lower voter registration and turn out, as well as less organization among younger people contributes to suggestions that the young shoulder too much of the burden from cutting. This is bad for America and terrible for our future. Over the last few months we have seen this as many thousands of local teachers and education workers are dismissed each month. 32,000 local education workers and 5000 state education workers have been dismissed since February 2011. Younger teachers are the most likely to be let go and our youth is left in under staffed class rooms attended by teachers struggling under political attack, declining conditions and benefits. I don’t think the realities sketched in the charts and observations above are consistent with staying competitive in the global economy. Amid loud calls to save our children and grandchildren from excessive debt– a worthy goal — we seem to be saving them from the ravages of education, employment, health care, affluence and opportunity. This is no way to win the future.

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Unemployment Drops In Vast Majority Of U.S. Cities

April 6, 2011

WASHINGTON — Unemployment rates are falling in most metro areas across the country, suggesting that hiring is widespread and not limited to a few healthy regions. The Labor Department says more than three-quarters of the nation’s 372 largest metro areas reported lower unemployment rates in February than the previous month. That’s the most to report a decline since September. More than 300 cities have seen their unemployment rates decline in the past year, the best showing since the recession ended in June 2009. And more than 280 metro areas reported job gains in the past year, also the most since the recession ended. Nationwide, private employers added more than 200,000 jobs in both February and March, the best two-month pace since 2006. The local data is one month behind the national figures.

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Retail Sector Adding Jobs, But Not Always Careers

April 5, 2011

Erin Abell left a job in finance to volunteer for John McCain’s presidential campaign in early 2008. She had hoped to return to the industry after the election, but by then Wall Street was on life support, and Abell had to live off credit cards until joining a friend’s startup. So she started working part-time at Banana Republic to help cut her debts. Yet Abell was paid less at age 30 than she made in a retail job in her early 20s. She also says she had to promote high-interest credit cards and sometimes work until 1 a.m. “Management made it very clear they could replace you tomorrow,” Abell says. As the economic recovery gains steam, the retail industry is expected to be one of the strongest for job growth this decade. But the quality of jobs selling clothes, computers and other goods has declined in recent years to the point where few can be classified as careers. Erratic part-time hours often make a second job impossible and complicate the work-life juggle. Pay has shrunk. And the recession created hordes of overqualified job seekers, leaving existing staff with little power to demand better conditions. With unemployment still high at 8.8 percent, many people feel fortunate to land any job. But not all jobs contribute the same to economic growth. Employers may be hiring more, but they are hiring disproportionately in retail and other service-sector positions with low wages and few benefits. High-paying fields like real estate and finance accounted for 40 percent of the 8.8 million jobs lost from January 2008 to February 2010 but only 14 percent of the jobs created in the year that followed. Lower-paying industries like retail constituted 23 percent of jobs lost but almost half of the recent growth. This shift “could make it much harder for workers to find family-supporting jobs,” says Annette Bernhardt of the National Employment Law Project, who analyzed the data. Even in the “jobless recovery” after the 2001 recession, high-paying industries accounted for nearly one-third of new jobs in the year after the recession ended. Elizabeth Murphy, a recruiting manager for Crate & Barrel, says she’s receiving three times as many applications as she did a year and a half ago. The increase reflects, in part, a surge in applications from unemployed real-estate agents, accountants and other professionals. “In the past, college grads would say, `I won’t even talk to you if you’re paying less than this,’” Murphy says. Stores are under pressure to trim their expenses, and labor, the biggest expense after inventory, is one of the few costs they can control. In 2006, the median hourly wage for retail salespeople was $9.50, the government says. In 2009, the most recent year for which figures are available, that figure was $9.74 – a 4 percent drop after adjusting for inflation and more than $5 less than the U.S. median for all occupations. For full-time retail workers, the median annual wage was $20,510 – half made more, half less. That’s well below the federal poverty line for a family of four. The trend is evident in the broader economy. The government’s March unemployment report showed that after adjusting for inflation, wages are falling – one reason spending growth has been slow. Retail workers aren’t just teenagers seeking pocket money. Much of the industry’s work force depends on the income for their livelihood, says James Parrott, chief economist at the Fiscal Policy Institute. In New York City, for example, 78 percent of retail workers are 25 or older, and more than a third are their family’s sole provider, Parrott found. Three of the six occupations expected to grow the most by 2018 are customer-service representatives, food-service workers and retail salespeople, according to government data. Retail is expected to create twice as many positions as software and computer-application engineering. The sector’s largest employer, Walmart, already accounts for 1 percent of all U.S. workers. Critics, though, say the company skimps on pay. Last year, Ohio state Rep. Robert Hagan, a Democrat, calculated that Buckeye State taxpayers spend roughly $67 million a year on food stamps and Medicaid for Walmart employees. Spokesman Bill Wertz says the store offers competitive wages and benefits and every day “helps people move off unemployment rolls.” At Walmart and across the country, retail workers are finding it harder to get by, especially lately, because of higher food and gas prices. Connor Skyggen, a recent college graduate who worked full-time in a Macy’s jewelry department last year, says his average take-home pay was $240 a week. He had to spend some of that on suits, pressed shirts and shoe shines to meet the dress code. On what was left, “it’s really hard to support yourself,” he says. Not every retail employee is struggling. At Nordstrom Inc. stores, commissioned salespeople are highly trained, and top performers earn six figures, says spokesman Colin Johnson. But electronics stores that offer workers a cut of sales, like hhgregg and P.C. Richard & Son, have had to lower prices to compete with Amazon.com, squeezing staffers’ take-home pay. “As electronic goods essentially turn into commodities, the commission model is not viable,” says Chris Tilly, who directs the UCLA Institute for Research on Labor and Employment. The Internet has armed consumers with so much price and product information that stores now need salespeople more to sell extended warranties than to explain how products work. Advances in technology have helped stores optimize workers’ schedules, too, so they have more workers on duty during peak sales times without being overstaffed during lulls. But one consequence is inconsistent work schedules for the employees. And workers complain that computers don’t weigh factors like seniority or a lengthy commute. Sheena Dixon, 26, a former theft-prevention manager at a Target in New York, said her store “used scheduling as a weapon,” shuffling hours so it was difficult to take a second job or make personal plans. If the store called on a day off and you declined to come in, your hours were slashed, she says. Dixon left the company in January to pursue a real estate career. Target spokeswoman Molly Snyder says scheduling was “thoughtfully crafted to provide flexibility for our team members and excellent service to our guests.” High-turnover work forces mean retailers must spend money to recruit and train. Yet those expenses pale compared with the cost of providing benefits, analysts say. The new federal law meant to expand health insurance coverage could make full-time hours even harder to get. Companies will be penalized for not providing insurance – but only for employees who work at least 30 hours. Securing a promotion, meanwhile, is already a challenge. When Caitlin Kelly’s newspaper laid her off, there were few job options for a 50-year-old reporter. So in August 2007 she took a part-time job at a North Face store in suburban New York. Kelly says she consistently beat her sales targets and regular customers asked for her by name. But when an assistant manager position opened up, she says, she was denied an interview. Some stores prefer not to promote from within, believing homegrown managers won’t command as much respect from sales-floor workers, says Nikki Baird, an analyst at retail research company RSR. To move up, you often have to be willing to move. What Kelly found most dispiriting, as she writes in her forthcoming book, “Malled,” is that no one ever solicited ideas from her or other staffers. “The people on the sales floor have tremendous knowledge, but the company presupposed we’re stupid,” Kelly says. “I would know the minute I unpacked a box whether (it) was going to sell.” The North Face, which sells outdoor gear like all-weather jackets and backpacks, declined to comment. Analysts say overlooked staffers are a problem endemic to the field. Retailers track each purchase to guide marketing and inventory. Yet they make little effort to determine why some staffers are more productive. At most companies surveyed by the National Retail Federation last year, customer-service scores didn’t affect sales associates’ pay. “Better-performing associates drive sales,” Baird says. “But it’s hard to do that analysis to say, `Sales were up this week because we had all our A players.’ ”

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What Happened To Entrepreneurship During The Recession?

April 5, 2011

They were among the recession’s most inspiring stories: laid-off workers who went on to start their own businesses rather than dropping out of the labor force or crawling back to corporate America. But a recent analysis of Census data calls into question the popular belief that the financial crisis spurred American entrepreneurship. Instead, entrepreneurial activity took a nosedive during the downturn, according to a new paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. The new report challenges another study that used identical Census data. According to a widely-circulated study by the Kauffman Foundation, a Kansas City-based entrepreneurship advocacy group, new business creation spiked during the recession. Released last May, the study found the monthly rate of people transitioning into self-employment steadily rose from late 2007 to a 14-year high in 2009 . “Kauffman’s findings give only half the picture,” says Scott Shane, the new paper’s author and entrepreneurship professor at Case Western Reserve University. “Sure, the number of Americans who became self-employed grew. But that number was dwarfed by the amount of US entrepreneurs whose businesses failed during the recession, and who were forced to exit self-employment.” As a result, the total number of self-employed Americans shrank to 9.8 million in June 2009 from 10.2 million in November 2007, Census data show. All told, 68,490 more businesses closed in 2009 than in 2007, an 11.6 percent increase in the business closure rate. “If you have more people giving up than going in, I can’t see how entrepreneurship went up,” says Shane. The main point of contention between the two reports is which measure does a better job of capturing entrepreneurial activity: the net change in the total number of self-employed workers or the rate by which people become self-employed. One thing both studies can agree on is that the majority of the businesses formed during the recession are not hiring employees in the short term. But Dane Stangler, research manager at Kauffman, is bullish over the long term. Even though they have not yet hired an employee, “non-employer firms started during the most recent recession will become the employer firms of the next decade,” Stangler says. So will the hoards of new businesses created since the downturn began — many of which still don’t employ workers — boost the economy? Even though only three percent of new businesses created without employees eventually evolve into businesses with employees, a 2007 study by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that those three percent made up over a fourth of “young businesses,” or companies under three years old with employees. That three percent also accounted for 20 percent of the revenue generated by young businesses. And relatively young businesses — not small businesses — are the biggest engines of job growth, according to Census economists . ‪If these trends are still valid in the post-recession economy, then Kauffman may have been right to focus on the flow of entrepreneurs into the economy during the recession, rather than the total stock.‬

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America’s Fastest Dying Business: Mobile Homes

April 2, 2011

When it comes to unlucky industries, it’s manufactured home (aka mobile home) retailers who really hit the trifecta. First they missed out on the housing boom. Then they felt the gut-punch of the recession. Now they might yet might miss out on the recovery. That makes them America’s fastest dying industry, according to a new report from IBISWorld.

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Fast-Growing Manufacturing Sector Cools Off

April 1, 2011

WASHINGTON — Manufacturing activity cooled off a bit last month after expanding in February at the fastest pace in nearly seven years. The Institute for Supply Management said Friday that the sector grew for the 20th straight month. The trade group’s index of manufacturing activity dipped to 61.2 from 61.4 in February, the highest reading in nearly seven years. Any reading above 50 indicates growth. The index bottomed out during the recession at 33.3 in December 2008, the lowest point since June 1980. Measures of new orders and new export orders dropped, though they remained well above levels that signal growth. Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, said the declines could reflect the impact of Japan’s earthquake and tsunami, which have disrupted global manufacturing supply chains. Japanese firms are leading suppliers of parts to automakers and electronics companies around the world. “Overall, this is still a very robust report,” Shepherdson said. One concern is higher material costs. Manufacturers are paying higher prices for cotton, steel and other commodities, and many are expressing concern that the inflation could cut into their profit margins, the survey found. The prices index rose slightly in March to the highest level in almost three years. That could also contribute to broader inflation if manufacturers pass on some of the higher costs. “Many manufacturers indicate the prices they have to pay for inputs are rising, and there is concern about the impact of higher prices on their margins,” said Norbert Ore, chairman of the committee that oversees the survey. Factory production increased at a faster pace last month, the report showed. The production index rose to its highest level in more than seven years. Other aspects of the report were mixed. Order backlogs are still growing, but at a much slower rate. The survey’s employment index dipped, although February’s pace was the fastest in 38 years. Manufacturing has been a key driver of economic growth and employment since the recession ended in June 2009. Consumers are spending more on autos, appliances and electronic goods. General Motors said Friday that car and truck sales rose 11 percent in March, a smaller increase than the previous two months. But the company said it offered fewer rebates and incentives. Manufacturers added 17,000 jobs in March, the Labor Department said Friday. Factories have added nearly 200,000 jobs in the past year. Overall, the economy added 216,000 jobs in March, the second straight month of strong job growth. The unemployment rate fell to 8.8 percent from 8.9 percent. The rate has fallen a full percentage point since November.

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U.S. Economy Growing Faster Than Rivals, But Creating Far Fewer Jobs

March 31, 2011

WASHINGTON — The United States is out of step with the rest of the world’s richest industrialized nations: Its economy is growing faster than theirs but creating far fewer jobs. The reason is U.S. workers have become so productive that it’s harder for anyone without a job to get one. Companies are producing and profiting more than when the recession began, despite fewer workers. They’re hiring again, but not fast enough to replace most of the 7.5 million jobs lost since the recession began. Measured in growth, the American economy has outperformed those of Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Japan – every Group of 7 developed nation except Canada, according to The Associated Press’ new Global Economy Tracker, a quarterly analysis of 22 countries representing more than 80 percent of global output. Yet the U.S. job market remains the group’s weakest. U.S. employment bottomed and started growing again a year ago, but there are still 5.4 percent fewer American jobs than in December 2007. That’s a much sharper drop than in any other G-7 country. The U.S. had the G-7′s highest unemployment rate as of December. Canada and Germany have actually added jobs since the recession ended in June 2009. U.S. companies aren’t acting the way economists had expected them to. In the past, when the U.S. economy fell into recession, companies typically cut jobs but often kept more than they needed. Some might have felt protective of their staffs. Or they didn’t want to risk losing skilled employees they’d need once business rebounded. Among manufacturers, for example, some tended to hoard workers during downturns by giving them make-work assignments – sweeping factory floors, counting inventory, painting warehouses. The result is that productivity – output per workers – has typically decelerated or even dropped as the economy has weakened. Japan and Europe have been following that script. At the depth of the recession in 2009, productivity shrank 3.7 percent in Japan and 2.2 percent in Europe. The United States has proved the exception. U.S. productivity growth doubled from 2008 to 2009, then doubled again in 2010, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Panicked by the 2008 financial crisis and deepening recession, U.S. employers cut jobs pitilessly. They slashed an average of 780,000 jobs a month in the January-March quarter of 2009. “My sense is there was much more weeding out of the weakest workers – the ones they didn’t want,” says Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff. Yet after shrinking payrolls, many companies found they could produce just as much with fewer workers. And with that higher productivity came higher profits. By July-September quarter of 2010, U.S. corporate earnings were 12 percent more than when the recession began. By contrast, corporate profits fell 6 percent in Japan and 16 percent in Canada from the October-December quarter of 2007, according to Haver Analytics. In Reading, Pennsylvania, Remcon Plastics moved fast once sales evaporated in the fall of 2008. “I have never seen my business go so quiet,” says Peter Connors, founder of the company, which makes pharmaceutical equipment. “I recognized that business wasn’t going to be strong for some time.” So he laid off 25 temporary workers. And he put his 50 full-time employees on a three-day workweek. Remcon rethought how it did business – restructuring the workplace, for example, so employees didn’t have to walk as far to do their tasks. A plastic part that once had to be made by six workers now needs three. It can be produced faster. “So even as demand came back, we could wait to add people,” Connors says. Japanese, European and Canadian companies are less inclined to purge employees. Their customs, labor regulations and unions discourage aggressive layoffs. U.S. management practices “make it easier for employers to avoid adding permanent jobs,” says economist Erica Groshen, a vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. “They have temporary help they can hire easily. They’re less constrained by traditional human resources practices or by union contracts.” Fewer than 12 percent of American workers belong to unions, which provide some protection against job cuts. That’s the fourth-lowest union participation rate among 31 countries the OECD tracks. “When there’s pressure to cut costs in the United States, it’s borne by the workers,” says Howard Rosen, visiting fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “In Europe, it’s borne differently.” In Germany, unemployment is lower now than before the recession. To limit layoffs, German companies spread the pain by reducing workers’ hours. “Japanese companies took it upon themselves to paint the factory – do more stuff that kept people on the payroll,” says Gary Burtless, senior fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institution. That helps explain why Japan’s unemployment rate was the lowest among G-7 countries in December at just 4.9 percent, though it may rise after the earthquake and nuclear disaster that struck Japan’s northeastern coastline. The United States is “on the other end of the spectrum,” says Carl Van Horn, director of the John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers University. “Everything is tilted in favor of the employers… The employee has no leverage. If your boss says, `I want you to come in the next two Saturdays,’ what are you going to say – no?” ____ AP Business Writer Pallavi Gogoi in New York contributed to this report.

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Corporate Profits At All-Time High As Recovery Stumbles

March 25, 2011

NEW YORK — Despite high unemployment and a largely languishing real estate market, U.S. businesses are more profitable than ever, according to federal figures released on Friday. U.S. corporate profits hit an all-time high at the end of 2010, with financial firms showing some of the biggest gains, data from the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis show. Corporations reported an annualized $1.68 trillion in profit in the fourth quarter. The previous record, without being adjusted for inflation, was $1.65 trillion in the third quarter of 2006. Many of the nation’s preeminent companies have posted massive increases in profits this year. General Electric posted worldwide profits of $14.2 billion, while profits at JPMorgan Chase were up 47 percent to $4.8 billion. Corporate profits steadily increased last year as companies continued holding onto record amounts of cash and other liquid assets while cutting costs, laying off workers and wringing more productivity — defined as the amount of output that comes from an hour of work — from remaining staff, even as the recession eased. To put that in perspective, said Lynn Reaser, the chief economist at Point Loma Nazarene University in San Diego, it’s important to note that companies were able to bring production back up to pre-recession levels without hiring any more workers. “We have now recovered all of the output lost in the recession, but we are still down by 7.5 million workers,” she said. In addition to layoffs, some companies continued to cut wages and benefits last year. Sub-Zero, the freezer and refrigerator manufacturer, told workers last year that factories in Wisconsin would have to be shut down, with 500 employees loosing their jobs, unless staff took a 20 percent pay cut, The New York Times reported . Workers were expected to put in more hours without overtime pay, while staff facing fewer hours of work due to furloughs were expected to do as much as they would have in a full workday, according to NPR . But, economists said, companies may have squeezed as much as they can out of workers, with a decline in profits for non-financial companies in the fourth quarter of last year suggesting that to improve production, companies will have to start hiring seriously again. On the whole, Reaser said, corporations have significantly improved their balance sheets since the financial crisis. “It’s helped pave the way for a significant gain for corporate capital spending, dividend payouts and corporate buybacks , as well as the significant rise in stock prices ,” she said. But while the financial sector continued to recover from its 2008 meltdown — with profits jumping some $51 billion in the fourth quarter, a gain of 51 percent over the previous quarter — non-financial firms actually saw profits fall by roughly $10 billion, according to the BEA figures. Part of the reason, said Reaser, was that although high productivity drove down labor costs, persistent unemployment and pinched consumers left companies unable to charge the higher prices needed to boost profits. More companies will start pushing more aggressively to improve profit margins this year, she said. In order for those efforts to pay off, she said, many companies will have to start hiring — and keep hiring. Until the end of last year, companies were able to boost productivity by squeezing their remaining workers, who were eager to prove they were worth their paychecks. “But,” said Paul Ashworth, an economist at Capital Economics, “you can’t keep getting more out of workers quarter after quarter after quarter.” To ramp up production this year, Ashworth said, companies have already started hiring modestly. Federal figures show the economy added total of 192,000 jobs in February, the most in nearly a year. The unemployment rate fell to 8.9 percent last month, the lowest since April 2009. Economic growth figures released on Friday also suggested firms were slowly stepping up production. The Commerce Department revised upwards its projections for gross domestic product growth in the fourth quarter of 2010, to 3.1 percent from 2.8 percent. The new projection, BMO Capital Markets senior economist Sal Guatieri said, is “consistent with an economy growing fast enough to gradually reduce the unemployment rate.” But, he said, most of the increase was in business inventories — companies producing and stockpiling more — rather than consumer confidence . Despite positive signs, economists warned that economic growth could be hit by the twin shocks of high gas prices and the impact of events in Japan, which has hampered auto and electronic supply chains. “There are mild headwinds that will slow growth a little bit,” said Nariman Behravesh, an economist at IHS Global Insight, an economic and financial analysis firm. “They’re not going to derail the recovery, and we’re guessing they’ll be temporary.” U.S. consumers appear to be growing nervous, thanks to events in Japan, fears over nuclear power, and unrest in the Middle East and north Africa. That anxiety could take an economic toll, with consumer sentiment falling this month to its lowest level since November 2009, according to the Reuters/University of Michigan index. “The sharp drop in consumer confidence and Japan-related supply chain bottlenecks will likely translate into real GDP growth of only around 2.4 percent in the first quarter, with a bounce back to the 3.5 percent to 4 percent range in the second quarter,” Behravesh said, revising his quarterly GDP growth estimate down from 4.2 percent.

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World’s Most Admired Companies for 2011: Fortune

March 3, 2011

NOTE: this article was republished with permission from Fortune.com By Geoff Colvin, Shelley DuBois and Daniel Roberts, Fortune Now that the skies are clearing after the worst economic storm in modern history — far more violent than the experts had predicted — we face a surprising new roster of winners and losers, as our 2011 ranking of the World’s Most Admired Companies makes clear. Stress in the recession and financial crisis brought out traits that may not have been noticed when the sailing was smooth. Upstarts became champions. Famed competitors fell behind; some didn’t make it through the storm. The findings of our latest survey show a new competitive order in many industries and in business generally, one that will probably last years. How the winners won and the losers lost holds lessons of value for everyone. The tumult is the greatest we’ve seen in 13 years of ranking the World’s Most Admired. Of the 57 industries studied, 22 are led by new companies this year, the largest proportion ever. The changed order of the business world is particularly evident from another perspective — our respondents’ views about who are the best at critical business abilities. The recession changed global opinion thoroughly. Here are the top 8 companies — and visit Fortune for more information :

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Caroline Dowd-Higgins: Marketing Overqualified to Your Advantage in the Job Search

March 1, 2011

If you are lucky enough to land a job interview in this difficult market, make sure you are in control of your message. This is especially important for seasoned candidates who often hear that they are overqualified for a position. With a generation of experienced individuals that were laid off in the recession, organizations are seeing a lot of senior candidates apply for roles below their typical pay grade. It’s up to the veteran candidates to prove their value-add more than ever since many companies are fearful of flight risk and resist taking on individuals whom they believe will only be around until they find a better opportunity. Age discrimination in the employment arena is still rampant and often veiled with the overqualified term. If you find yourself fighting to prove your worth as an experienced professional, here are some selling points to consider when marketing yourself for a new opportunity. Think like the hiring manager. Assuage the company fear factor right off the bat and address flight risk and high salary expectations. If you have done your research, you will know the expected salary range for the position and let your employer know you are realistic about what the position pays. If you have a history of longevity or loyalty to a company, share that so the employer understands you won’t leave the first chance you get a better gig. Enthusiasm works — desperation doesn’t. Explain why you are genuinely interested in the position and why you are a value-add to the organization. Be authentic and sell your skills, competencies, and experiences as a return on investment for the employer. Recruiters can smell desperation in all candidates so focus on opportunities that are really a good fit. It will be better for you and the employer in the long run. Life experience is a good thing. In addition to your education and professional posts, wisdom and life experience are priceless. Develop a compelling story about how your time in the work saddle has empowered you with communication skills and team work abilities that taught you how to play well in the company sandbox and your ability to respond well to constructive criticism. With age comes wisdom . While newbie hires may be shiny and bright with the ink barely dry on their diplomas, a more seasoned professional is more likely to choose an organization based on the company values that match their own. A recent Harvard Business Review discussed how overqualified employees tend to perform better and don’t quit any sooner than other employees. For an experienced hire — it’s more about job satisfaction and fit than merely just finding work. Ability to handle change. A practiced candidate often brings depth to a position and has experience handling challenge and change in the work environment. Showcase your resiliency and flexibility and your willingness to solve problems outside of the box. Show examples of the positive effect you can bring to the workplace. A values re-assessment. The corporate sector was hit hard with lay-offs and down-sizing in the recession and many driven 80+ hour/week careerists have re-evaluated their personal and professional values. Often they are looking for more balance and jobs that are not as high on the company ladder, on purpose. The older worker may be happier in a more middle-rung role because it reflects a values shift that better meets their lifestyle. Be seen before you apply. The power of the informational interview is more important than ever. Most positions aren’t even posted and being overqualified might get your CV weeded out by an HR professional or skill scanning software program before you are ever seriously considered. Reach out to company prospects and request a brief meeting to learn more about the culture and company mission. Be on your best and most approachable behavior in these non threatening sessions and wow them with your personality and know-how. Even if no positions are currently posted, these in-person meetings allow you to be seen and heard so when something does become available you will be well remembered and your over-qualification will not be a threat. The hiring manager may be your daughter’s age. Since the person with the hiring authority may be much younger, it’s important not to scare them when you do land the interview. Be gentle and use humble confidence to tout your professional accomplishments. Put their fears to rest by illustrating how you are successful at relationship building and maintenance in organizations. Mirror the behavior of your hiring manager and make them feel at ease and most importantly, in control! In the best case scenario companies should hire for fit, train for skill, and always hire the best talent available, even if they are more seasoned than the hiring manager and other colleagues. It’s up to the candidate to sell yourself as the ultimate value-add. Be well prepared the next time someone throws the overqualified term in your direction and spin this into a positive return on investment for the company. In the end, no company has control over who stays and who leaves so seriously considering experienced talent should be a no brainer. Caroline Dowd-Higgins authored the book “This Is Not the Career I Ordered” and maintains the career reinvention blog of the same name ( www.carolinedowdhiggins.com ) She is also the Director of Career & Professional Development at Indiana University Maurer School of Law.

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Dean Baker: Greenspan’s Incompetence Badgers Wisconsin’s Workers

February 21, 2011

Alan Greenspan has been strangely missing from the fierce battle over the future of public sector unions in Wisconsin and other states. His absence is strange because he bears more responsibility for the current conflict than anyone else alive. The reason is simple. Mr. Greenspan’s incredible incompetence in allowing the $8 trillion housing bubble to grow unchecked created the fiscal crisis that is gripping Wisconsin and most other states. To be clear, states always face financial stress in economic downturns. Most states had to struggle to balance their budgets in 2001-2002 and earlier in the earlier 1990-1991 recession. During a recession tax revenues fall. Consumers buy less, which means less sales tax revenue. Workers earn less money, which means less income tax. And property values fall, leading to less property tax revenue. At the same time the need for state programs increases. Unemployed and underemployed workers are more likely to need public benefits like unemployment insurance, Medicaid, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) and other public support programs. Recessions are part of capitalism and responsible leaders prepare for cyclical downturns. However this recession is no ordinary downturn. The recession officially began in December of 2007, so it is now 37 months since the start of the downturn. At this point following the 2001 recession, the economy was down 1.5 million jobs from the pre-recession level. Thirty-seven months after the start of the 1990-1991 recession the economy had generated 1.1 million more jobs than the pre-recession level. At this point following the 1981-82 recession, the worst prior recession of the post-war period, the economy had 5.5 million more jobs than before the recession. By comparison the number of jobs now stands 7,700,000 below its pre-recession level. Furthermore, no one is projecting that this gap is about to be closed in the next several years. There should be zero doubt: this downturn is the reason that Wisconsin has a budget crisis. Perhaps Wisconsin’s leaders can be blamed for not recognizing that the economy was being managed by complete incompetents – and planning accordingly – but this is the story of the state budget crisis. According to the Congressional Budget Office , the economy is operating at more than 6.4 percentage points below its potential level of output. If Wisconsin’s state economy was 6.4 percent larger, and its revenues increased accordingly, it would have more than $4 billion in additional revenue in its coffers over the next two years. This increase in revenue would easily cover the projected deficit. This is even before we add in the savings from lower payouts for unemployment insurance and other benefits that would follow from a return to normal levels of unemployment. In short, there can be little dispute that Wisconsin’s budget crisis is Alan Greenspan’s work. The allegations of the union bashers can easily be shown to be nonsense. Wisconsin’s public sector workers are paid no more than their private sector counterparts. They tend to get somewhat better pensions and health care coverage, but this is offset by lower pay for comparably skilled workers. Nor has there been an explosion of public sector employment under the period in which Democrats governed the state. The last budget prepared by former governor Jim Doyle projected 69,038 full-time equivalent (FTE) positions for the state in 2011, an increase of 1.4 percent from the 68,092 FTE number in 2003, the year when Doyle took office. It takes some very inventive arithmetic to make a 1.4 percent increase in employment over 8 years into a bloated state workforce. How does it change anything if we know that Greenspan (last seen being feted at the Brookings Institution) is the real villain in the Wisconsin budget crisis? First, it should turn the heat where it belongs: Washington. The problem of the downturn is a lack of demand. A lack of demand is solved by spending money. We have to get our elected representatives to ignore the shrill whining of the Wall Street deficit hawks. We need sufficient stimulus from the public sector to overcome the falloff of more than $1.2 trillion in spending from the private sector that resulted from the collapse of the housing bubble. If members of Congress are too intimidated to do what is needed to fix the economy, then Wisconsin’s legislators should do what common sense dictates: follow the money. Rather than taking pay and benefits from schoolteachers and firefighters, it makes sense to take money from the people who have it. This means taxing Wisconsin’s wealthy and its corporations. The tax increase only needs to be temporary; since the state budget should be fine once the economy recovers. Of course the wealthy and the corporations will claim that they will leave the state and stop hiring, but these are not people who are known for their truthfulness. They are known for their money. If these big winners in the downturn are forced to share more of their wealth until the economy recovers then maybe they will put more pressure on Congress to support the sort of stimulus needed to get the economy back on track. This would be a real win-win for just about everyone.

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Countdown To No Kickoff: Next Football Season Hostage To Owners’ Demands

February 16, 2011

WASHINGTON — The National Football League’s 32 owners are hurtling toward a March 4 deadline, giving every indication that they plan to lock out the players and stadium employees, potentially jeopardizing the next season in an effort to extract an extra billion dollars per year for themselves and require the players to put in two extra regular season games. The move comes after the owners have managed to siphon hundreds of millions of dollars from taxpayers to build and maintain stadiums for their private businesses. With the exception of Green Bay, which is collectively owned by community members and run as a nonprofit, the other 31 teams are privately owned, meaning that the NFL’s lucrative business generates an extraordinary amount of money for a handful of men. The owners are claiming that they need an extra billion dollars to make it worthwhile to invest in the upkeep of the stadiums and other facilities. The players say they are more than willing to help make those investments, but, like all investors, they want a cut of the returns and they want to see the owners’ books to verify their claims of impoverishment. There’s reason for suspicion. The owner of the Cincinnati Bengals, for instance, is insisting that he needs the extra money from the players to maintain the team’s stadium. “The investments that need to be made to keep the stadium and our other facilities in first-class condition require an economic system that fairly allocates financial reward and risk,” said Bengals owner Mike Brown in an October letter explaining the team’s position to progressive advocacy group Progress Illinois. Problem is, the Bengals don’t pay for those investments. The local taxpayers do. The stadium was entirely a gift from taxpayers to the team. The lease requires taxpayers to pay the costs of routine maintenance and upgrades, which amounted to $10.2 million over the past decade, according to the Cincinnati Enquirer . And now the Bengals want four times as much from taxpayers for the next decade. Listening to the owner’s argument, one would think he was footing the bill himself. “Our stadium has repeatedly been recognized as one of the finest venues in the league, and we are very proud for what it means to our fans, our players and our community. Like any facility of its size and complexity, our stadium needs ongoing maintenance and improvement,” he wrote, skipping over the part about who paid for it, adding that the community should be grateful that the team still plays where it does. “Even though the Bengals operate in one of the smallest communities in the NFL, and in an area that has been hit hard by the recession, we have maintained our commitment to provide fans with the highest-quality football in an outstanding setting.” Some of the fans remain unconvinced of the high-quality claim, as well. “The community is fed up with the Bengals. They don’t try to put a winner on the field,” Hamilton County Commissioner Todd Portune told HuffPost, noting that the team has had a losing record in 19 of the last 21 seasons. People are fed up, he said, by an “ownership that feels like it did the community a favor by playing ball here.” Hamilton County taxpayers are reminded of their generosity to the Bengals each time they pay a half-cent sales tax surcharge that is dedicated to paying for the stadium and its maintenance. With revenue declines as a result of the recession that followed 9/11 and the downturn following the financial crisis, tax receipts are no longer covering the county’s bills — the type of risk that Mike Brown was referring to. “I don’t want to get in the middle of their labor dispute, but the problem is the financial model that the NFL has actively pursued, that the ownership of teams have been willing co-conspirators to, that has put a gun to head of taxpayers to foot the bill for costs that ought to be born by private enterprise,” Portune said. Cincinnati City Councilman Wendell Young introduced a resolution expressing the council’s outrage at the Bengals’ request of even more subsidies for its business. “[I]n order for Hamilton County to fund this level of improvements, it would have to raise taxes or potentially cut funding for hospitals, public safety and other vital public services, none of which is reasonable or appropriate to impose on the citizens of the City of Cincinnati or Hamilton County who have provided the Bengals with such a significant public subsidy for nearly 20 years that has helped to make the Cincinnati Bengals one of the most profitable franchises in the National Football League.” Young said the resolution will see a vote next week. “It seems to me unconscionable for them to ask the city to pay for things they can obviously afford themselves,” he said. With taxpayers tapped out, the owners are turning to the players. The owners want a bigger slice of the profit pie. If they don’t get it, they will lock the players out, preventing them from getting on the field. It’s not a strike: Just like factory owners would chain the door to keep out union workers, NFL owners will lock shut the door on the 2011-2012 season. In a Tuesday op-ed , NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell, who represents team owners, conceded that it is only the owners who are making demands, but tried to flip the situation upside down. He argued that the fact that players aren’t making demands is evidence of owners’ impoverished situation. “The union has repeatedly said that it hasn’t asked for anything more and literally wants to continue playing under the existing agreement. That clearly indicates the deal has moved too far in favor of one side,” Goodell wrote. The owners have two key demands: They want an extra billion dollars of the roughly $9 billion revenue pie that is the NFL, and want an additional two regular season games. The owners say they need the extra billion for upkeep and “professional fees” for legal and other services (fees that would presumably go to cover owner lawsuits against the elderly who can no longer afford season tickets or small alternative newsweeklies that run articles critical of ownership). The owners also want to limit pay to unproven rookies, many of whom just finished playing for free for four or five years for a lucrative college program. The players’ union is willing to concede this, to an extent. But the average NFL career lasts only three-and-a-half years, meaning the owners want to take a big chunk from nearly a third of a player’s typical career. The owners want to replace two of four preseason games with regular-season games, which players oppose: They say two more games will increase injuries at a time when player safety is ostensibly a paramount concern of the league’s. The league has been preparing for this lockout for years, the players say, noting that the owners hired the same attorney who led the NHL lockout and has instructed teams to include provisions in contracts that reduce or eliminate pay in the event of a lockout. The NFL has been similarly adept negotiating with the television networks and the owners will get paid even if the games aren’t played. Last year, roughly two-thirds of the 100 most-watched television shows were individual NFL games, said George Atallah, a top NFL Players Association official. “We didn’t get here yesterday. The league has taken steps to prepare for a lockout for almost three years now,” Atallah told HuffPost. The union also been preparing, encouraging players to be ready for paychecks to stop and health insurance to be cut. Star players are involved in the union: Aaron Rodgers, the Super Bowl MVP, is the Packers’ union representative; Drew Brees is on the union’s executive committee; Peyton Manning has been personally involved in negotiations and is an alternate rep for the Colts. More starting quarterbacks serve as player representatives today than at any other time in the union’s history. Meanwhile, city officials across the country are letting team owners know that a lockout would damage local economies. Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak said in his letter that he takes no position on the contract negotiations, but that a lockout would “hurt working families in Minneapolis.” “As Mayor of Minneapolis, the city that hosts the Minnesota Vikings, I know that the NFL season has an important economic impact on my city and region. One study has estimated that regular-season games generate $6 million in economic impact, while playoff games generate an additional $9 million in economic impact. Directly and indirectly, these dollars support a wide variety of good jobs for workers in the hospitality, hotel and service industries. Minneapolis is one of the leading hospitality and entertainment cities in the country and these jobs are an important part of our overall economic vitality.” Rybak wrote that he was glad players had pledged not to strike and that he wished the league would make a similar pledge not to do a lockout. Other mayors have said the same thing. “It is clear that the vast popularity and financial success of football means that a lockout cannot be in the interest of anybody involved, particularly the fans, workers or businesses who support the game,” wrote Kansas City Mayor Mark Funkhouser to Chiefs chairman Clark Hunt. Miami Mayor Tomás Regalado sent an identical letter to Goodell. It continues: “I call upon the owners to announce to the fans that they will not lockout the players. The players already have pledged to not strike. By making the parallel commitment, the owners would create the breathing room for a deal to be struck.” Mayors in Houston, Texas, and Baltimore, Md., have sent similar letters. Jerry Watson, who owns a bar near the Green Bay Packers’ Lambeau Field, says no games would mean less revenue for his business, the Stadium View Bar & Grill. “Without the NFL it would cost me a third of my business, and it’s going to cost my employees a lot of money,” Watson said. “It’s going to hurt the state of Wisconsin.” The players’ union estimates that having no NFL games would reduce economic activity by $160 million in each city with an NFL team. An NFL spokesman referred HuffPost to a story by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution dubbing the players’ union’s claim “false,” speculating that if people don’t spend money going to games, they’ll spend it elsewhere. “Attending a professional sporting event is one of many entertainment options in metropolitan areas,” the article states, quoting a 2000 study by Dennis Coates and Brad R. Humphreys of the University of Maryland-Baltimore County. “Fans could alternatively go out to dinner and a movie, or bowling, during a sports strike.” HuffPost had asked the NFL if it had any response to the mayors who say their towns will be hurt by a lockout. “The focus of the clubs is to reach a fair agreement by the March 4 expiration of the CBA,” the NFL’s spokesman said.

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Wisconsin GOP Poised To Cut Worker Rights In Budget Fix

February 15, 2011

MADISON, Wis. — Wisconsin is poised to strip collective bargaining rights from most of the state’s 175,000 public employees in the boldest step by a new Republican governor and Legislature to solve budget problems by confronting organized labor. The state Senate and Assembly are expected to vote as soon as Thursday on Gov. Scott Walker’s plan to end collective bargaining for all state, county and local workers except for police, firefighters and the state patrol. More than 10,000 public employees workers staged demonstrations at the state Capitol Tuesday to protest the measure, banging on drums and screaming “Save our state!” and “Kill the bill!,” and a parade of witnesses testified before lawmakers about the impact on middle-class families. But legislative leaders said Walker now has enough support in both chambers to approve the measure, which he said is necessary to address a projected $3.6 billion budget deficit. “We’re broke and we don’t want to lay off almost 20,000 people,” said Senate President Mike Ellis, a Republican, who added, “They’ve got the votes to pass it.” Union representatives were attempting to sway key moderates for a compromise but Democrats said the bill would be tough to stop. “The Legislature has pushed these employees off the cliff but the Republicans have decided to jump with them,” said Sen. Bob Jauch, one of 14 Democrats in the 33 member chamber. New Republican governors and legislatures in other states have proposed cutting back on public employee costs to reduce budget shortfalls, but Wisconsin’s move appears to be the earliest and most extensive. The state has long been a stronghold of organized labor. But the election of Walker, an outspoken conservative, last November and the GOP’s seizing of control of both legislative chambers set the stage for a dramatic reversal. Walker’s plan would make workers pay half the costs of their pensions and at least 12.6 percent of their health care premiums. State employees’ costs would go up by an average of 8 percent. The changes would save the state $30 million by June 30 and $300 million over the next two years. Unions could still represent workers, but could not seek pay increases above the Consumer Price Index unless approved by a public referendum. Unions also could not force employees to pay dues and would have to hold annual votes to stay organized. Local police, firefighters and state troopers would retain their collective bargaining rights. In exchange for bearing more costs and losing leverage, public employees were promised no furloughs or layoffs. Walker has threatened to order layoffs of up to 6,000 state workers if the measure did not pass. Wisconsin is one of about 30 states with collective bargaining laws covering state and local workers. Walker has argued that the public employee concessions are modest considering what private sector workers have suffered during the recession. But Democratic opponents and union leaders said Walker’s real motive was to strike back at political opponents who have supported Democrats over the years. Protesting workers arrived in buses from across the state and poured into the Capitol, where they rallied under the watch of a large security force. Protesters chanted, waved signs and occasionally applauded testimony broadcast from the legislative hearing on monitors set up in the Rotunda. “We’re focusing on being heard as a people, as one, all the unions,” said Michael Hyde, a sergeant at the prison in Waupun. “Government is supposed to be our representative.” Kathy Lusiak, 59, a computer lab aide at Prairie Lane Elementary School in Kenosha, said the bill would cost her about a third of her $21,000-per-year salary. “I’m totally shocked. I never thought it would be this drastic,” said Lusiak, who joined the protest. “It’s very much a nightmare scenario.” The public employee bill is the latest that Walker has pushed through the GOP-controlled Legislature in rapid order since taking office in January. He’s also signed into law tax cuts for businesses that relocate to Wisconsin and those that create jobs and sweeping lawsuit reform. To achieve additional budget savings, he is seeking authority to make changes in the Medicaid program, sell state power plants and restructure existing debt to save about $165 million. Democrats, who lost the governor’s office and control of the Legislature in the November midterm elections, have been powerless to stop to the juggernaut. Republicans hold a five vote margin in the Senate and a 57-38-1 edge in the Assembly. The threat of layoffs helped many lawmakers reluctant to compromise. “Anybody who promises you that there’s an easier way to close this gap is trying to sell you something,” Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald said in an open letter to Wisconsin workers. Governors in a number of other states, including Ohio, Indiana, Nevada and Tennessee, have called for forcing concessions from public employee unions but no similar measures have moved to final action.

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Top Government Watchdog Stepping Down

February 14, 2011

WASHINGTON — The government’s top watchdog over the $700 billion financial bailout said Monday that he will step down next month, after leading an office that uncovered millions of dollars in fraud among potential recipients. Neil Barofsky said in a letter to President Barack Obama that he will leave this job as special inspector general for the Troubled Asset Relief Program on March 30. A spokeswoman says Barofsky believes the office met the goals that he laid out for it: deterring fraud, improving transparency and overseeing the government’s management of the bailouts. Barofsky led investigations that resulted in 14 criminal fraud convictions of bankers. The office’s enforcement staff followed leads from a tip line Barofsky set up and from banks’ applications for bailout money. It was the only watchdog overseeing the bailout that had law enforcement authority. His office saved taxpayers $553 million by recognizing fraud at Colonial Bank and halting the Treasury Department’s plan to send the bank money. Colonial collapsed months later. It was the sixth-largest U.S. bank failure. Barofsky criticized both the Obama and Bush administration. He blasted Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and his predecessor, Henry Paulson, in a series of audits of the bailout fund, which was created by Congress in October 2008. The audits examined issues such as Geithner’s role in the rescue of American International Group Inc. and the department’s decision to close of thousands of auto dealers. Barofsky’s audits often prodded Treasury to make its bailout decisions more transparently. The office also grabbed headlines during the crisis by emphasizing the worst-possible outcomes of decisions that it criticized. For example, Barofsky wrote in mid-2009 that the government’s support programs totaled $23.7 trillion. That number represents the maximum size of 50 separate programs related to the crisis and the recession. It was not an estimate of possible losses. White House spokeswoman Amy Brundage said in a statement that Barofksy “provided strong oversight of the TARP program for the past two years.” “We are grateful for Mr. Barofsky’s service,” she said. Barofsky’s spokeswoman said Barofsky’s top deputy, Christy Romero, will become acting special inspector general next month. Romero formerly was an enforcement lawyer with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Barofsky is a former federal prosecutor who was nominated by President George W. Bush in November 2008. He was confirmed unanimously by the Senate the following month.

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Tax Cut Proposals On State Level No Guarantee For Jobs

February 13, 2011

NEW YORK — It’s recently become an article of faith for many governors as they try to attract jobs: raising taxes during a recession is a nonstarter, choking off growth and damaging a state’s fragile economic recovery. With the notable exception of Illinois, where Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn last month signed a 66 percent temporary personal income tax increase and a separate corporate rate hike to help close a $15 billion budget gap, governors this year are mostly vowing to cut regulations and hold the line on taxes to attract employers and rebuild after a brutal recession. “We … hope that every bill you consider passing will be viewed through the lens of its impact on our economic growth,” Colorado Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper told lawmakers in his State of the State address, sounding a theme many governors share. “This doesn’t mean we compromise our standards or put our land, air or water at risk, but it does mean that we’ll keep a fierce and even relentless focus on jobs.” Whether they can hold to that promise will become clearer in the coming months as governors release their new budget proposals. But there’s a catch to the anti-tax, pro-business rhetoric: Businesses consider a range of factors when deciding where to locate, including the quality of schools, roads and programs that rely on a certain level of public spending and regulation. And evidence suggests there is little correlation between a state’s tax rate and its overall economic health. “Concerns about taxes are overstated,” said Matt Murray, a professor of economics at the University of Tennessee who studies state finance. “Labor costs, K-12 education and infrastructure availability are all part of a good business climate. And you can’t have those without some degree of taxation.” States’ tax rates also do not predict their resilience during an economic downturn. While high-tax states such as New York, New Jersey and California have been clobbered by the current recession, so too have states that pride themselves on low tax rates, including Nevada, Texas and Arizona. The collapse of the housing market and the financial industry meltdown largely drove the current conditions, sparing almost no state regardless of its level of taxes. Governors agree this is a particularly challenging budget year, with federal stimulus dollars drying up after years of deep state budget cuts. Some 34 states raised taxes or fees as recently as 2009 to help close budget shortfalls. Now, chief executives from both parties mostly have little appetite for new tax measures after Republicans successfully ran on tax issues last fall – they now control 29 governorships – and President Obama and Senate Republican leaders teamed up to extend Bush-era tax cuts, even for the wealthiest Americans. Illinois’ big tax hike is considered an anomaly – an emergency measure that includes strict spending limits to close a budget hole that is the largest of any state as a percentage of its overall budget. Neighboring states such as Wisconsin quickly pounced, urging businesses to relocate from Illinois even though its tax rate remains lower than those of many states in the region. Meanwhile some other governors have opened the door to potential tax increases, insisting the measures are necessary to offset fiscal calamity. In California, Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown has been promoting a package of temporary tax increases as a ballot measure for voters to consider, while also proposing deep cuts to higher education and social services. Two newly installed New England governors – Connecticut’s Dan Malloy and Rhode Island’s Lincoln Chafee – have told state residents to expect some taxes to go up. Most are pairing their tax increase proposals with targeted spending cuts and promises of fiscal discipline over the long term. To be sure, several governors, including Republican Chris Christie of New Jersey and Democrat Andrew Cuomo of New York, say they have sworn off tax increases. Some other governors – such as newly sworn-in Republicans John Kasich of Ohio and Rick Scott of Florida – say they plan to cut taxes even as they try to bring their budgets into balance. Scott wants to reduce the Sunshine State’s corporate income tax despite the fact that Florida faces a projected budget gap next fiscal year of at least $3.5 billion; the corporate income tax now generates about $2 billion a year. Other governors, despite tight budgets, want to boost spending on economic development projects to bring jobs to their states. In Nebraska, Republican Gov. Dave Heineman has proposed a $16.5 million initiative aimed at attracting jobs while saying he will not raise taxes. The money would be spent on several measures, including an internship program pairing graduates of Nebraska universities with state-based companies, and a fund offering start-up cash and technical assistance to small businesses. In an interview, Heineman said his state must spend money on education and job programs to attract economic development. “We’re competing for jobs with other states and other countries, and I’m trying to do it in a healthy and positive way,” Heineman said. “The only way I can compete is to have a better tax and regulatory climate, but education and a quality work force are also key to that.” Kansas Republican Gov. Sam Brownback is requesting $105 million for universities in his state to do targeted research in the areas of animal health, cancer and aviation. Virginia Republican Gov. Bob McDonnell has proposed a $54 million jobs initiative for the state to compete more aggressively against neighbors North Carolina and Maryland. The quality of a state’s labor market is another significant factor for businesses as they choose where to locate, in some cases mitigating the level of taxes they will have to pay. “As much as Nevada talks about getting California business because of their low taxes, their population would need a substantial amount of retooling,” said Kim Reuben, a senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center in Washington. “Nevada has survived largely on growth, a place where people without much education could get relatively good jobs in construction and casinos. California is a place that has great intellectual institutions and will always attract talent and overcome its taxes.” But Kail Padgitt, an economist with the conservative Tax Foundation, said a state’s tax burden might not have affected its performance during the recession but certainly will affect the pace of its recovery. “When the economy starts to pick up, that’s where you’re going to see more the impact of taxes,” Padgitt said. “Where businesses are going to expand operations, where new investments are going to be made – a lot of these companies want to know what their taxes are going to be.” How much the lure of lower taxes acts as an incentive for businesses seeking to relocate or expand remains an open question. In late 2008 and early 2009, California lawmakers and then-Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger approved a series of corporate tax breaks that was estimated to save businesses about $1.3 billion a year. At the time, Schwarzenegger and GOP lawmakers promoted the tax cuts and credits as a way to create jobs, but there is little evidence they have done so. California’s unemployment rate rose in December to 12.5 percent and has remained above 12 percent for a year and a half. The questionable connection between corporate tax policy and job creation prompted a Democratic state lawmaker to call for legislation that would force companies to prove they were using tax breaks to boost employment. “The bill is not to deny them those tax credits. I want to give them those tax credits because they make a rather credible argument why they need them,” state Sen. Leland Yee said. “All I’m asking is for them to prove it.” Associated Press writer Don Thompson in Sacramento contributed to this report.

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For Small Businesses, Credit Is Still Tight

February 9, 2011

In a sign that the economic recovery still faces challenges, small businesses continue to report difficulty getting loans. More than 10 percent of small business owners said credit was harder to get in January than it was three months ago, according to a new survey from the National Federation of Independent Business . That figure is a slight improvement from the past few months, and it’s a substantial improvement from what it was during the depths of the recession, but it indicates the economy still has a long way to go before it heals. Small businesses are a key component of a functioning economy. They create about 70 percent of the nation’s jobs, according to the Obama administration’s estimate. Especially during difficult times, small business growth depends on bank loans, which businesses can use to fund their operations while they wait for profits to materialize. With the unemployment rate at 9 percent, small business job-creation is a crucial piece of the recovery. But even as some banks have started making credit more available, small business clients have largely been left out. Of 57 banks recently surveyed by the Federal Reserve , 30 said they had eased their credit standards or loan terms. But for the most part, this willingness to lend focused on large borrowers. Three banks reported eased standards for lending to small companies, but seven reported easing up on big borrowers. In every category of loan terms — size and cost of credit lines, collateral requirements and others — more banks had eased up for big borrowers than for small ones. Small businesses have evidently felt the squeeze. “Credit is already so tight,” said Michael Rogers, spokesperson for the Small Business Association of Michigan. “Anything that tightens it further is going to hurt small business job-creation.” The new survey from the NFIB shows a slightly improved small business lending situation, but one that’s still crippled from the recession. Over the past year, the net percentage of small businesses that have reported increased difficulty getting loans has hovered above 10 percent. Last month’s slight drop to 10 percent is a substantial improvement from 16 percent in May 2009, when the economy was still contracting. But January’s percentage is still far from pre-crisis levels. In 2006 and 2007, near the end of the real estate boom, only about 5 percent of small businesses reported difficulty getting loans, according to the NFIB. In general, banks were more willing to take risks back then than they are now. Part of the problem for small businesses stems from the challenges facing small banks , which traditionally enjoy a co-dependent relationship with local businesses. 2010 was the worst year for bank failures since 1992, as the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation seized 157 banks. On average, the failed banks last year were smaller than in 2009.

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FOREX: NZ Dollar Drops on Recession Fears, Bernanke Speech on Tap Ahead

February 9, 2011

FOREX: NZ Dollar Drops on Recession Fears, Bernanke Speech on Tap Ahead

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Airfares On The Rise As Airlines Charge Passengers For Fuel

February 8, 2011

NEW YORK — The rising cost of flying comes with a familiar refrain: The airlines need help paying their fuel bills. For the first time since late 2008, U.S. airlines are adding fuel surcharges to ticket prices. They’ve already raised fares five times since December.to offset a 25 percent increase in the price of jet fuel. For those with spring and summer travel plans, it’s a one-two punch. Right now, the surcharges on U.S. routes are only between $3 and $5 each way. Back in 2008, surcharges started slightly higher, then jumped as high as $60 when oil hit $147 in the summer. Many estimates have oil moving slightly above $100 this year. Even a one-way $15 surcharge adds more than 4 percent to the average domestic ticket price of about $340. And on international flights, fuel surcharges at their peak can more than double the price of a ticket. _ Adding fuel to the fare American Airlines last week added a fuel surcharge of about $5 each way on most U.S. routes. United and Continental applied a charge of $3 each way. Others are expected to follow. JetBlue tacked on $35 to $45 for trips to the Caribbean and Puerto Rico. Besides raising fares system-wide, individual airlines are hiking fares further on popular routes. That helps boost revenue, but airlines aren’t sure it’s enough. Airlines generally expect to pay at least 15 to 25 percent more for fuel this year. Estimates vary because carriers use different financial strategies for rising fuel prices. Oil topped $92 per barrel last week, the highest level since October 2008. _ Where (and why) you’ll find them Fuel surcharges are traditionally an easier way to raise fares. An increase to a base fare isn’t always tolerated by customers. They can switch to a rival or force an airline to lower fares again to keep them. Fees are complicated and can drive passengers away, too. Airlines also believe passengers are more forgiving of price increases for specific reasons. “I think our customer understands fuel surcharges because they see their energy costs rising as well,” JetBlue Dave Barger said in an interview with The Associated Press. _ Now you see them. Surcharges are wrapped into the base fare on U.S. flights – you won’t incur a separate fee at booking. And they must appear in all promotions and advertisements. But on international flights fuel surcharges are often hidden during an initial fare search on online travel sites and the airlines’ own websites. They can exceed the ticket price. Surcharges for international flights reached $350 on a trip to Europe in 2008. They dropped, but never went away like domestic charges did in the recession. Fuel surcharges are labeled with an “F” code on your final booking statement of airfare and taxes. Peak travel day surcharges, which airlines introduced soon after domestic fuel fees disappeared, have a “Q” code. It’s unclear whether travelers will incur both fees this summer. _ More to come? Few airline executives expect costs to drop this year, so travelers should prepare for higher fuel surcharges. Southwest CEO Gary Kelly said fuel will be the airline’s biggest hurdle to staying profitable this year. Fuel is often an airline’s biggest expense next to labor. It accounts for about one-third of an airline’s total costs, on average, according to the International Air Transport Association. Rick Seaney of FareCompare.com predicts airlines will apply fuel surcharges much more slowly this year to avoid the resistance they encountered two and a half years ago. But that’s not to say airlines wouldn’t raise fuel surcharges higher than in 2008. With the economy growing and more people flying, analysts suggest that fares and fees should climb steadily this year. “They’ll keep rising until the point where the consumer says `I’m not buying a ticket anymore,’” Seaney said.

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Mike Lux: Obama’s Chamber Speech: The Debates About Regulation and the Social Contract

February 7, 2011

It was hard for this old progressive warrior to see President Obama go give a speech to the Chamber of Commerce. The Chamber was always conservative, but for the last 16 years (since a takeover in 1994 by a hard-right faction), it has become one of the worst institutions in America. With its tens of millions in anonymously funded and blatantly partisan attack ads; its far-right positions on health care, global warming, and taxes; and its blatant selling of its lobbying services for any company that wants to attack legislation but needs a front group, the Chamber has soiled its reputation almost beyond repair. Having said that, I also think the president is the president for the entire country, and I have no problem with him meeting with anyone, even his political opposition. If I have no problem with Obama meeting with Boehner and McConnell — which I don’t — I can’t see why he shouldn’t go give a speech to the Chamber. As long as he understands who they are, and how much damage they want to do to him in most other circumstances, speaking to them is no problem. The other thing is that speaking to them also gives him a chance to challenge them. Did he do that enough in his speech? Not to my tastes, of course. I wish he would have banged on them — directly challenging them on things like all the anonymous ads they ran in the 2010 cycle — a lot more than he did. And I couldn’t disagree more with Obama in his extended embrace of “free trade” deals that do damage to American workers and jobs. But there were two important times when Obama did make at least a nuanced argument in direct opposition to the Chamber’s ideology. On neither point did he say enough, but I thought both were interesting. The first is on the debate over regulations. Obama reached out to the Chamber on the issue of regulatory overhaul, but as in the State of the Union, he gave a relatively strong defense of some government regulations as being both necessary and actually helpful to the economy: So we were just talking about regulations. Even as we eliminate burdensome regulations, America’s businesses have a responsibility as well to recognize that there are some basic safeguards, some basic standards that are necessary to protect the American people from harm or exploitation. Not every regulation is bad. Not every regulation is burdensome on business. A lot of the regulations that are out there are things that all of us welcome in our lives. Few of us would want to live in a society without rules that keep our air and water clean; that give consumers the confidence to do everything from investing in financial markets to buying groceries. And the fact is, when standards like these have been proposed in the past, opponents have often warned that they would be an assault on business and free enterprise. We can look at the history in this country. Early drug companies argued the bill creating the FDA would “practically destroy the sale of… remedies in the United States.” That didn’t happen. Auto executives predicted that having to install seatbelts would bring the downfall of their industry. It didn’t happen. The President of the American Bar Association denounced child labor laws as “a communistic effort to nationalize children.” That’s a quote. None of these things came to pass. In fact, companies adapt and standards often spark competition and innovation. I was traveling when I went up to Penn State to look at some clean energy hubs that have been set up. I was with Steve Chu, my Secretary of Energy. And he won a Nobel Prize in physics, so when you’re in conversations with him you catch about one out of every four things he says. (Laughter.) But he started talking about energy efficiency and about refrigerators, and he pointed out that the government set modest targets a couple decades ago to start increasing efficiency over time. They were well thought through; they weren’t radical. Companies competed to hit these markers. And they hit them every time, and then exceeded them. And as a result, a typical fridge now costs half as much and uses a quarter of the energy that it once did — and you don’t have to defrost, chipping at that stuff — (laughter) — and then putting the warm water inside the freezer and all that stuff. It saves families and businesses billions of dollars. So regulations didn’t destroy the industry; it enhanced it and it made our lives better — if they’re smart, if they’re well designed. And that’s our goal, is to work with you to think through how do we design necessary regulations in a smart way and get rid of regulations that have outlived their usefulness, or don’t work. I also have to point out the perils of too much regulation are also matched by the dangers of too little. And we saw that in the financial crisis, where the absence of sound rules of the road, that wasn’t good for business. Even if you weren’t in the financial sector it wasn’t good for business. And that’s why, with the help of Paul Volcker, who is here today, we passed a set of common-sense reforms. The same can be said of health insurance reform. We simply could not continue to accept a status quo that’s made our entire economy less competitive, as we’ve paid more per person for health care than any other nation on Earth. Nobody is even close. And we couldn’t accept a broken system where insurance companies could drop people because they got sick, or families went into bankruptcy because of medical bills. That is not someone apologizing for the need to regulate just a wee little bit; that is a fairly robust argument in favor of an active regulatory role for the federal government. At a time in our country’s history when Republicans and most business executives think of regulations as the ultimate dirty word, and a time when one of the biggest bank’s spokesperson brags that “the bank CEOs have been collaborating with the Fed” on their regulatory policy, for the president to give that kind of vigorous defense in terms of the need for regulations in front of the Chamber is a very positive thing. By the way, in case you didn’t think you were reading that quote right because a bank spokesman couldn’t possibly be that arrogant, or that perhaps I was taking it out of context, you are wrong. The Bank of America and their CFO Charles Noski really did happily admit that the biggest bank CEOs “collaborate” with regulators on their regulatory policy, in this case on the swipe-fee issue, an issue I have been following closely while working with retailers and consumer groups. Hopefully the Fed will “collaborate” just as closely with all the small businesses and consumers impacted by swipe fees as they are doing with bank CEOs. This is the environment we are in right now, though; bankers feel no need to hide their blatant attempts to seduce and capture regulators. Given that environment, the president standing up for certain strong regulations is a very positive thing. The second area of the president’s speech that I loved was about the social compact. When I first heard that Obama would be speaking to the Chamber, as soon as I stopped cursing, my first thought was this: I hope he makes the case for the social contract, or as he called it, compact. That old but still central idea, totally rejected by the kind of selfishness-is-a-virtue, Ayn Rand conservatives who dominate in too many corporate board rooms and the modern Republican Party, is that there is contract between our country’s citizens, government, and private sector, that much is given to each of us but much is required in return. As President Obama said: But we have to recognize that some common-sense regulations often will make sense for your businesses, as well as your families, as well as your neighbors, as well as your coworkers. Of course, your responsibility goes beyond recognizing the need for certain standards and safeguards. If we’re fighting to reform the tax code and increase exports to help you compete, the benefits can’t just translate into greater profits and bonuses for those at the top. They have to be shared by American workers, who need to know that expanding trade and opening markets will lift their standards of living as well as your bottom line. We can’t go back to the kind of economy and culture that we saw in the years leading up to the recession, where growth and gains in productivity just didn’t translate into rising incomes and opportunity for the middle class. That’s not something necessarily we can legislate, but it’s something that all of us have to take responsibility for thinking about. How do we make sure that everybody’s got a stake in trade, everybody’s got a stake in increasing exports, everybody’s got a stake in rising productivity? Because ordinary folks end up seeing their standards of living rise as well. That’s always been the American promise. That’s what JFK meant when he said, “A rising tide lifts all boats.” Too many boats have been left behind, stuck in the mud. And if we as a nation are going to invest in innovation, that innovation should lead to new jobs and manufacturing on our shores. The end result of tax breaks and investments can’t simply be that new breakthroughs and technologies are discovered here in America, but then the manufacturing takes place overseas. That, too, breaks the social compact. It makes people feel as if the game is fixed and they’re not benefiting from the extraordinary discoveries that take place here. So the key to our success has never been just developing new ideas; it’s also been making new products. So Intel pioneers the microchip, then puts thousands to work building them in Silicon Valley. Henry Ford perfects the assembly line, and then puts a generation to work in the factories of Detroit. That’s how we built the largest middle class in the world. Those folks working in those plants, they go out and they buy a Ford. They buy a personal computer. And the economy grows for everyone. And that’s how we’ll create the base of knowledge and skills that propel the next inventions and the next ideas. The president didn’t challenge the Chamber, or the American business community, enough in his speech. I sure would have banged on them some for sleazy anonymous attack ads paid for by secretive, and possibly foreign, corporations. I would have been more direct in my criticism of too many companies not creating more jobs while making record profits last year, and in outsourcing jobs and escaping taxes through phony offices in foreign countries. But it was good to see him make a strong case for the role of regulation, and for the importance of the social contract. To go before a group like the Chamber and make those arguments required some guts, and I appreciated that he did it.

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House Dems To Reintroduce Longshot Bill For Long-Term Unemployed

February 7, 2011

WASHINGTON — Democratic Reps. Barbara Lee (Calif.) and Bobby Scott (Va.) are reintroducing legislation this week to provide additional weeks of unemployment insurance benefits for “99ers,” the long-term jobless who have exhausted their benefits and still haven’t found work. “The bill that I am introducing with Congressman Scott, The Emergency Unemployment Compensation Expansion Act, would ensure that these long-term unemployed workers get the long overdue assistance that they need to support their families, make ends meet and contribute to our economy,” Lee said in a statement . “Our bill would add 14 weeks of emergency unemployment benefits and would make sure these benefits are retroactively available to people who have exhausted all their benefits and are still unemployed.” Given Republican hostility to additional deficit spending — Lee’s office said the cost of the extra benefits would not be offset — the effort will likely amount to little more than a reminder that long-term unemployment persists even though much of the nation’s political discourse is focused on signs of economic recovery. The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that 1.4 million Americans have been unemployed for as long as 99 weeks. Of the 13.9 million unemployed, 43.8 percent — or 6.2 million — have been out of work for six months or longer. Lee and Scott are holding a press conference on Wednesday to discuss the bill further. They will be joined by 99ers from an ad hoc online group that calls itself the American 99ers Union . “The American 99ers Union supports government spending that results in a positive return on investment,” a statement from the group said. “The Emergency Unemployment Compensation Act will effectively serve this purpose.” Lee and Scott expressed frustration last year, when they first introduced an extension bill, that President Barack Obama omitted help for the 99ers from the deal he struck with congressional Republicans that preserved tax breaks for the rich and reauthorized extended federal unemployment benefits through 2011. Federal unemployment benefits enacted in response to the recession provide the unemployed up to 73 weeks of benefits beyond the standard 26 weeks provided by states. (The full complement of federal benefits is only available in 25 states, so some exhaustees are not officially 99ers.) The Lee-Scott bill faces even tougher odds in the new Republican-controlled House of Representatives than it did last year in the previous Congress, when helping the 99ers was barely an afterthought. “If you’re serious about helping Americans on unemployment, you need to show how you’ll pay for the cost with cuts elsewhere,” a House GOP aide said. “If you don’t do that, you’re looking to issue a press release, not to actually help people.” Heidi Shierholz, an economist with the progressive Economic Policy Institute who supports the legislation and will attend Wednesday’s press conference, said there’s no economic reason for benefits to stop at 99 weeks. “There is no magic number of how long extensions should last,” she said. “There’s just nothing in the economic literature that says 99 weeks is the limit. It’s not like if we break the 100 barrier things are going to fall apart.” HuffPost readers: Long-term unemployment? Tell me all about it — email arthur@huffingtonpost.com . Please include your phone number if you’re willing to be interviewed for a story.

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Dedrick Muhammad: Little Known History of Labor Rights and Civil Rights

February 6, 2011

A few weeks ago I attended the United Auto Workers Region 9A 18th Annual Civil Rights Award Recognition dinner in Hartford, Connecticut. The evening was a stirring tribute to the work of those who through their work in labor rights have been advancing civil rights. For most Americans the story of how labor organizations like the UAW were key partners in the Civil Rights movement of the mid 20th century is an unknown piece of trivia. From the UAW’s support of the Montgomery Bus Boycott in 1955 which would bring the leadership of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. to national attention, to UAW’s support of the freedom riders and voters registration of African Americans in the 1960′s, to fighting for women worker’s rights, to supporting the struggle of Cesar Chavez’s United Farm Workers, the United Auto Workers has served as an essential ally in supporting movements for greater equality and social justice. Similarly there is little recollection of the Civil Rights’ legacy of fighting for economic rights, workers rights, and the right to work. The famed March on Washington in 1963 was titled the March on Washington for Freedom and Jobs and was originally envisioned by the great labor leader A Phillip Randolph. Dr. Martin Luther King was assassinated in Memphis Tennessee supporting a labor strike. Dr. King’s last nation campaign was aimed at demanding greater investment into and more opportunity for working class Americans. The struggle for racial equality has at its core many of the same issues at the foundation of the labor movement, the right to a living wage and the need for greater economic opportunity and equality. In the context of the “Great Recession”and a decades long regression in economic opportunity for most Americans this connection of labor and civil rights is as important as ever. What has made the Great Recession such a challenge is the Great Recession comes after decades of a “great regression” in many areas of economic equality. For the last 30 years the American economy has been one where wealth and income is increasingly concentrated in the hands of an elite, creating a top heavy economy versus a middle class economy that was at the center of America’s most prosperous years. Dr. King stated in his 1963 speech, “Social Justice and the New Emerging Era”, “I never intend to adjust myself to economic conditions that will take necessities from the many to give luxuries to the few.” Increasingly, the economic reality of a declining middle class, a solidifying of racial economic inequality, and a growing concentration of wealth is being called the new normal. It was an honor to be part of an event that recognized those who were maladjusted to the reality of the new normal and are fighting for the dream shared by Dr. King, the civil rights movement, and organized labor, a dream of greater economic equality and opportunity. The honorees of the United Auto Work Civil Rights dinner were Domestic Workers United, Ron Patenaude, and General Holifield. Domestic Workers Unites is a labor group who in the midst of this poor economy has organized the most disenfranchised segments of society primarily women, people of color, and immigrants who provide the domestic work which makes the lifestyle of those with higher income possible. Ron Patenaude, President of Local 322 in Holyoke Massachusetts, was honored for his diverse work in ensuring civil rights for all regardless of sexual orientation, fighting to restore cuts to Medicaid, and Criminal Offender Record Information reform. Last but not least the NAACP’s own national board member and UAW Vice President General Holifield was awarded for embodying in action the unity between civil and labor rights. The examples of those honored at the UAW Civil Rights dinner highlight the great work that intersects civil and labor rights that is still being done. Malcolm X used to state that the subject of history is best qualified to reward our research. As we begin Black history month let us examine the history of civil and labor rights and examine how these movements can best reward our contemporary challenges of promoting great economic equality and opportunity for all.

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CoStar Dials Up $101M Sale of HQ Bldg. One Year After Buying it for $41M

February 4, 2011

In what will almost certainly qualify one of the most successful sale-leaseback transactions since the recession, CoStar Group Inc. (Nasdaq:CSGP) has agreed to sell its headquarters building at 1331 L St. NW in Washington, DC, for aggregate consideration of $101 million in cash to GLL L-Street 1331 LLC, an affiliate of Munich-based GLL Real Estate Partners GmbH. CoStar acquired the two-year-old, Class A building through a wholly owned subsidiary…

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Jobless Claims Fall After Harsh Winter Weather

February 3, 2011

WASHINGTON — The number of people applying for unemployment benefits plunged last week, reversing a spike from the previous week largely caused by harsh winter weather. Applications for benefits dropped by 42,000 to a seasonally adjusted 415,000 in the week ending Jan. 29, the Labor Department said Thursday. They had surged in the previous week after snow storms in the South disrupted work and led to temporary layoffs. Applications are well below their peak of 651,000, reached in March 2009, when the economy was deep in recession. Fewer than 425,000 people applying for benefits is consistent with modest job growth. But applications will need to fall consistently below 375,000 to signal a likely decline in the unemployment rate. Last week’s decline resumes a downward trend that took shape late last year. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, fell steadily in the last three months of 2010 to a two-year low of 411,250 in the week ending Jan. 1. That raised hopes that employers, operating with lean work forces, would soon step up hiring. “The drop … is definitely a positive,” Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak, said. While applications are still at an elevated level, “the trend has generally been lower as the bulk of the firings are now behind us.” The average rose in January, mostly because of seasonal factors, such as the harsh weather and the layoff of temporary holiday employees. The average ticked up last week by 1,000 to 430,500. Many economists consider data in January to be less reliable because of seasonal fluctuations. Unemployment applications reflect the level of layoffs, but can also indicate whether companies are willing to hire. Despite the decline in unemployment benefit applications, employers have been slow to add jobs. One factor holding back job gains is that workers are becoming increasingly efficient and productive. That enables companies to produce more without hiring more workers. In a separate report Thursday, the Labor Department said that productivity, the amount of output per hour worked, rose 3.6 percent in 2010, the biggest increase since 2002. Employers will likely create a net total of 2.2 million jobs this year, according to a survey of economists by the AP. That’s double the number that was generated in 2010. Consumers are forecast to spend a little more freely, boosting economic growth to about 3.2 percent in 2011, up from 2.9 percent in 2010. But the economy would need to grow much faster – closer to 5 percent for a year – to substantially reduce unemployment. Analysts project that the unemployment rate will fall to 8.9 percent by the end of this year, according to the AP Economy Survey. The number of people on the unemployment benefit rolls fell by 84,000 to 3.9 million, the Labor Department’s report said. Those figures are one week behind the data on applications. That doesn’t include millions more people who are receiving benefits under emergency federal programs enacted during the recession. About 4.55 million people received aid under the extended benefit programs in the week ending Jan. 15, the latest data available. Those programs provide up to 99 weeks of aid in the states with the highest unemployment rates. Overall, nearly 9.3 million people are receiving unemployment aid. That’s down from about 9.4 million the previous week.

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Richard (RJ) Eskow: Afghanistan’s "Too Big to Fail" Bank Is Failing — Guess Our System Doesn’t Work There, Either

February 2, 2011

The collapse of Afghanistan’s largest bank will seem familiar to Americans, and so will the upcoming reports of its bailout. We’ve heard the story before: Unheeded warnings. Lax (or nonexistent) law enforcement. An American auditor who said nothing as the books imploded. Sloppy, reckless, and greedy lending. Politicians in bed with banks. And a corporate crime wave led by bankers who can break the law with impunity, knowing they won’t be punished even if they’re caught. The Kabul Bank story is a sad inversion of nation-building. It might have provided some moments of black humor for the recession-ravaged middle class, if only Americans and Afghans weren’t paying for it with their lives. We promised to teach the Afghans everything we know about running a modern economy. Apparently we did. Exporting hypocrisy The financial collapse of 2008 discredited an economic philosophy which had dominated both political parties for decades. That philosophy created a toxic cocktail of deregulation, ineffective oversight, concentrated wealth, and incentives to cheat. The end result cost the economy trillions in lost wealth, ongoing hardship for tens of millions of people, and a bailout whose true cost is still being hidden from the public. And what did we learn from all of that? Not very much, judging by the evidence. The list of institutions advising the Afghans includes the US Treasury Department and the Department of Justice — both of whom have, shall we say, underperformed when it comes to regulating banks and prosecuting financial crimes. And the consulting group that was awarded nearly $100 million to help the Afghans develop sound financial practices went bankrupt in the middle of its assignment. That’s right — bankrupt. But the source of our failure in Afghanistan isn’t in the government’s choice of advisors or its failure to manage its developmental efforts properly, as harmful as those things have been. The real problems in Afghanistan are philosophical, not managerial, and they’re the same ones that have plagued us at home: a continued belief in failed economic theories; indifference or hostility toward regulation and regulatory agencies; a too-cozy relationship between banks and politicians; and, worst of all, the willingness to tolerate (and therefore condone) a list of bank crimes that includes fraud, forgery, and laundering drug money. “Thin Tightrope” Cables released by WikiLeaks reveal that U.S. Ambassador Karl Eikenberry considered it necessary to walk a ” thin tightrope ” when working with corrupt officials. The cable indicated that Eikenberry collaborated with an “allegedly corrupt official because he could serve as a “stabilizing… force” (militarily, in this case.) This official’s “illicit (drug) trafficking” was not to be tolerated in the interests of security. That philosophy extended to banking, where the now-failing Kabul Bank and other banks were widely understood to be helping Afghans get illicit drug money out of the country. Kabul Bank is no different from Wells Fargo, either in its willingness to handle drug money or its apparent impunity from the law. As Bloomberg News originally reported, Wells Fargo’s internal screening unit repeatedly turned a blind eye to money laundering on behalf of mass-murdering Mexican drug cartels. Regarding these drug laundering charges, Bloomberg reported that “no big U.S. bank — Wells Fargo included — has ever been indicted. Instead, the Justice Department settles criminal charges by using deferred-prosecution agreements, in which a bank pays a fine and promises not to break the law again.” As Bloomberg explains, “Large banks are protected from indictments by a variant of the too-big-to-fail theory.” In other words, once a bank is big enough to pose a threat to the economy it receives effective immunity for past and future criminal behavior — a license to commit crime. Yet “too big to fail” provisions were removed from last year’s US financial reform law by lawmakers on Capitol Hill whose own favorite investments included Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase. And Afghanistan’s largest bank, a corrupt collaboration between its president and the bank’s principal owners, grew large enough to become a “systemic risk” to the nation’s economy… as our own government stood and watched. Meanwhile, here at home, corporate lawbreakers like Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase are apparently still considered a “stabilizing force.” Too big to fail As the New York Times reported this week: Fraud and mismanagement at Afghanistan’s largest bank have resulted in potential losses of as much as $900 million — three times previous estimates — heightening concerns that the bank could collapse and trigger a broad financial panic in Afghanistan, according to American, European and Afghan officials. The extent of these losses make it clear that keeping the bank afloat — something the government has said it is determined to do — would require large infusions of cash from an already strained budget. The crisis was a long time coming. As the Times reported last September , Afghan President Hamid Kharzai has family ties and a personal financial interest in the bank, and agreed to bring the brother of one of the bank’s principals into the government as his Vice Presidential running mate. (But then, American Administrations from both parties (including the current one) have hired a string of senior bank officials and watched others leave government to join big banks — not as egregious, perhaps, but a clear conflict of interest.) If an institution is allowed to become “too big to fail,” it’s rarely an accident. The corruption has already taken place somewhere along the line. Austerity and Deregulation We’re told that Deloitte, the auditor in place at Kabul Bank, was not specifically tasked with reviewing its accounts. Deloitte apparently acquired the contract when it purchased BearingPoint, the consulting firm that went bankrupt. But unless there are more contracts being awarded than have been widely reported, the original BearingPoint contract (worth a reported $98 million) was designed to help banks “improve economic governance.” There were reports as far back as 2005 that some of the consultants on the project were “subpar” and that US contractors were receiving widespread criticism locally. BearingPoint has promoted a privatization-oriented approach during its richly (and, let’s not forget, publicly ) funded tenure in Afghanistan, as it has in other countries. The firm and its successor unit within Deloitte have done some good work, but remain part of a well-paid consultant nexus that emphasizes the same set of shared values that undermined the US economy. In other words, BearingPoint and like-minded vendors have been faithful in the execution of an austerity-minded philosophy — a philosophy that can sometimes become anti-government in many ways, and whose philosophy of “austerity” rarely extends to its own practitioners. The Afghan Research and Evaluation unit, a group set up by the international aid community in Afghanistan, assessed Afghan aid as follows: “Consistent with the current consensus on development held by the donor community and international financial institutions (IFIs), the privatisation process has gained increased momentum in Afghanistan … Fifty four fully state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have been slated for privatisation as going concerns or through liquidation by the end of 2009.” In BearingPoint’s case, their sympathy for this downsizing-government approach isn’t surprising. Alice Rivlin, the economist best-known for relentlessly advocated Social Security cuts, was a member of the Board and the company’s leading economic figure — before it went bankrupt. They say they weren’t doing the bank’s books. But if they were there to “improve the economic governance” of Kabul Bank, an institution whose misdeeds were well-known and whose implosion could topple the economy, then it’s certainly fair to say that their work has been “subpar.” Toxic Assets A report commissioned by the International Monetary Fund got the problems right. “As of March 2008,” the report noted, “the two largest domestic private banks accounted for almost 50 percent of total banking system assets. The combined loans of these two banks were 70 percent of total commercial bank lending.” The mayor of Kabul was indicted by the Afghan government on corruption charges, but U.S. officials wound his explanation credible: He was arrested by corrupt officials after he exposed their own misdeeds. Specifically, he told officials that he found files for more than 30,000 applicants who paid for “nonexistent plots of land in Kabul.” These toxic assets were part of a larger get-rich-quick schemes for officials who apparently found his investigations inconvenient. The IMF report also included this observation: “Most banks did not attach particular importance to analysis of borrowers’ balance sheets, cash flow, or business plans.” That kind of lax underwriting will be familiar to observers of American lending practices. The report also noted, somewhat laconically, that “banks that lend extensively domestically engage in extra-judicial, non-traditional contract enforcement. ” Extra-judicial? As in illegal? It sounds like we’ve exported foreclosure fraud, too. Do as we say, not as we do The procurement process for USAID projects in Afghanistan seems to be a mess. Sen. McCaskill was surprised to learn that major contractors there were not being asked to file the usual tracking reports . The Obama Administration was criticized for awarding a major contract to a Democratic party donor , and for using the “no-bid” process it has criticized in the election campaign to do it. After Kabul Bank’s impending failure was reported, the US government insisted that the Times update its story to include a quote from a Treasury Department spokesperson saying that “no American taxpayer funds will be used to prop up Kabul Bank.” But that doesn’t have any more credibility than Treasury Department claims that bank bailouts in this country have been fully repaid — a claim that doesn’t count aid funneled through the Federal Reserve, the cash value of low- and zero-interest bank loans, and other taxpayer-funded measures. Ninety percent of Afghanistan’s national budget was financed by foreign countries last year, with the US assuming a significant chunk of the cost. When the Afghans conduct their first bank bailout, under United States supervision, the funds will undoubtedly come from the Afghan treasury. And then funds from ours will help make up the shortfall elsewhere. Yes, corruption among politicians and other officials is a much greater problem there. They’re a drug-based economy whose principal export is poppies. Their country is divided, impoverished, and largely illiterate. But economic behavior is universal. Their bankers are subject to the same “moral hazard” as bankers everywhere: When “too big to fail” banks can gamble with absolute certainty that they’ll be rescued, that’s exactly what they’ll do. When bankers know they can commit crimes go unpunished, they’ll commit crimes. And they won’t stop until people start going to jail — in both countries. “You complete me …” A jargon-laden report from the Congressional Research Service addressed what it called “ROL,” an acronym that stands for the “rule of law,” and concluded: “Helping Afghanistan build its justice sector … suffers from the same difficulties that have complicated all efforts to expand and reform governance in that country: lack of trained human capital; traditional affiliation patterns that undermine the professionalism, neutrality, and impartiality of official institutions; and complications from the broader lack of security and stability in Afghanistan.” In other words, they’re saying that Afghans are too tribal and primitive to do things the American way. But that’s not true. Yes, education and training is needed. But their lack of law enforcement, especially in the financial sector, directly reflects the level of emphasis we’ve placed on it ourselves — in their country and here at home. We’ve lavishly funded privatization efforts and the unrestrained growth of private and morally corrupt banks, while at the same time devaluing the role of regulation and law enforcement. The problem with the Afghans isn’t that they’re not like us. The problem is that we’re too much alike. People everywhere are, pretty much, especially where money’s concerned. So until we change the way we govern, the results are likely to be the same wherever we go. Crimes will still be committed, banks will still fail, and we’ll all keep paying the price for a moral, legal, and economic blindness that keeps leading us off the same cliff over and over again. Richard (RJ) Eskow, a consultant and writer (and former insurance/finance executive), is a Senior Fellow with the Campaign for America’s Future. This post was produced as part of the Curbing Wall Street project. Richard also blogs at A Night Light . He can be reached at “rjeskow@ourfuture.org.” Website: Eskow and Associates

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Susan Wilson Solovic: Obama Administration Pushes Small Businesses Toward Export Opportunities

February 2, 2011

Small business is the engine that is driving the American economy. A phrase we have all heard a lot. But little help has been provided during this recession to help small businesses survive. The National Export Initiative, created by an Executive Order, was created to “improve conditions that directly affect the private sector’s ability to export.” As such, the President’s initiative called for doubling the nation’s exports to support creating two million jobs in the next five years. To help achieve that goal, as part of the Small Business Jobs Act, the U.S. Small Business Administration increased the maximum amount available to small businesses for export loan assistance. The SBA increased the maximum size of the 7(a) International Trade loans and Export Working Capital Loans to $5 million, up from $2 million, both with 90 percent guarantees. Additionally, the agency made the Export Express loan program permanent which provides a 90 percent guaranty for loans up to $350,000. Clearly, exporting is a growth opportunity for small businesses as 95 percent of consumers live outside the United States. However, small firms need assistance in identifying opportunities and managing risk. Local Chamber of Commerce groups as well as state agencies provide a good starting point for many business. However, the federal government created an all-inclusive website to answer many questions. Export.gov is a one-stop shop resource for small businesses. You can research opportunities and connect with resources. Finally, to minimize the financial risk of export trade, small business can look to trade credit insurance. This product covers unpaid invoices where there is a loss from the end-buyer — minimizing what could be a financial disaster for a small business. This video explains more about how the insurance product can protect your small business.

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