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GBP/JPY Classical Technical Report 06.10

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GBP/JPY Classical Technical Report 06.10

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WASHINGTON (Lucia Mutikani) – Employment rose far less than expected in May to record its weakest reading since September, while the jobless rate rose to 9.1 percent as high energy prices and the effects of Japan’s earthquake bogged down the economy. Nonfarm payrolls increased 54,000 last month, the Labor Department said on Friday, with private employment rising 83,000, the least amount since June. Government payrolls dropped 29,000. Economists polled by Reuters had expected payrolls to rise 150,000 and private hiring to increase 175,000 in May. The government revised employment figures for March and April to show 39,000 fewer jobs created than previously estimated. The job creation slowdown confirmed the economic weakness already flagged by other data from consumer spending to manufacturing. It could stoke fears about the depth and duration of a slowdown that started early in the year. The Labor Department said severe weather last month, including tornadoes and flooding, in the Midwest and the South did not materially affect data collection. It also said that while some workers in those regions may have been temporarily displaced from their jobs, it found “no clear impact of the disasters on the national employment and unemployment data for May.” Economists still believe the lull in activity will be temporary. They cite high gasoline prices, bad weather and disruptions to motor vehicle production because of a shortage of parts from Japan as factors weighing on growth. “It is clear we have temporarily entered a soft patch,” said Christopher Probyn, chief economist at State Street Global Advisors in Boston, before the report. “Nobody knows how soft and how long, but the best case view is that the fundamentals of the recovery remain intact and the economy will re-accelerate in the second half of the year.” The report provides one of the best early reads on the health of the U.S. economy and it regularly sets the tone for global financial markets. Worries about the pace of the U.S. economic recovery weighed on stocks on Thursday. While the recent string of weak data has sparked talk about the need for the Federal Reserve to extend its asset purchasing program when it expires this month, analysts believe policymakers will take a soft payrolls report in stride. Officials at the U.S. central bank regard the current downshift in the economy as temporary. The Fed has been mapping out a strategy on how to start removing some of the massive stimulus it has lent the economy, and officials have made clear the bar for a further easing in monetary policy is high. TEMPORARY FACTORS AT PLAY “We should keep in mind that we have seen a lot of factors weighing on the U.S. economy in April and May, and should take this report with a pinch of salt,” said Harm Bandolz, chief U.S. economist at UniCredit Research in New York. “We may see some positive surprises in the second half of the year once the impact fades.” High gasoline prices hurt consumer spending in the first quarter, restricting economic growth to a 1.8 percent annual pace after expanding at a 3.1 percent rate in the October-December period. The economy has regained only a fraction of the more than 8 million jobs lost during the recession. Economists say payrolls growth above 300,000 a month is needed to make significant progress in shrinking the pool of 13.9 million unemployed Americans. The unemployment rate rose to 9.1 percent last month from 9.0 percent in April as some discouraged workers who had been inspired by the pick-up in hiring in April re-entered the labor market. “There is so much slack in the labor market it’s going to take a long time to get the unemployment rate down to between 6 and 7 percent. That’s going to take years,” said Stephen Bronars, a senior economist at Welch Consulting in Washington. That could be bad news for President Barack Obama, whose chances of re-election next year could hinge on the health of the economy, particularly the labor market. The employment report showed weakness across the board, with the private services sector adding 80,000 jobs last month after increasing payrolls by 213,000 in April. Within the private services sector, leisure and hospitality fell, showing no boost from McDonald’s recruitment of about 50,000 new staff in April, which was after the survey period for that month’s payrolls. Spring is traditionally a strong hiring period for McDonald’s. Retail employment, which recorded its largest increase in 10 years in April, fell 8,500 last month. Manufacturing payrolls growth contracted 5,000 last month, while construction employment rose 2,000. The report showed the average work week steady at 34.4 hours and few signs of wage inflation, with average hourly earnings rising 6 cents. (Reporting by Lucia Mutikani, Editing by Andrea Ricci) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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U.S. Economy Adds Startling Low Number Of Jobs In May

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Crude Oil, Gold and Silver Position for Losses Ahead of US Jobs Report

June 3, 2011

Crude Oil, Gold and Silver Position for Losses Ahead of US Jobs Report

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Bob Beaty: Would You Pay For It?

June 2, 2011

One of the characteristics of toiling in obscurity is the limited shelf life. No sentient being, or company for that matter, can stand anonymity for long. Fortunately, there are three solutions; pray for a miracle, change the perception or shuffle off this mortal coil. In the case of most SmallCap companies, the equivalent of the third eventuality would be to shut the doors. Let’s deal with door number two — change the perception — as the most viable, since miracles only happen infrequently and, dare I say, in obscurity. Other than a fraternity party I attended many years ago in Ithaca, New York, but I digress. Let’s talk fee-based research. Rough segue, but an extremely interesting topic. If you were/are the CEO of a SmallCap company whose stock couldn’t get attention if you yelled ‘open bar’ at an investor conference in Vegas, then you need to familiarize yourself with the genre. As do investors. Once you understand how it works, it amazes me that anyone depends at all on the affectations and frequent conflicts of interest of ‘traditional’ investment dealer research. Begin with the premise that your corporate story or vision is worth telling, which doesn’t include you 40-something game developers eating hot pockets in mom’s basement. The hell of it is, there are some great stories out there: Lifesaving biotech stories, the next Microsoft (or Apple) or a killer electronic device or cost-saving service. If you can objectively conclude the world needs to know, or alternatively hire someone to tell you it has legs, it probably should gain exposure. And inform potential investors. But how do you get noticed? Fee-based research is a viable arrow in the overall IR quiver. I gained some good insight chatting to independent analyst Patrick Murphy, CFA, and principal of www.MurphyAnalytics.com. Some interesting observations: • SmallCaps tend to commission fee-based research when times for the company are good and want those facts disseminated to investors • Disclosures on the report are key. Investors must satisfy themselves that the analyst’s compensation is fully disclosed as well as their ethics • CFA’s are held to very high standards and having that designation ups the independence and credibility of the work • No matter how informational and conflict-free the report, it must be used a one of many research tools. Never make an investment decision based on one report • If a report is too promotional or draws unrealistic conclusions and/or price targets, it should likely be ignored • The majority of fee-based research shops do not take shares as compensation, thereby negating a vested or conflicted interest in the market performance of the shares • The research should work for the investor, not the company In the majority of cases, the company does not see — if the report contains one — the analyst’s price target or rating until publication. The reason is to maintain the independence of the report and not allow the company to exert any influence on the projected price. The company always has the right to spike the report if it feels there are problems, but since investors will never know, the point is moot. The main enigma for investors is that fee-based research is likely going to be positive. A company facing bankruptcy or some other calamity is not going to bring attention to it. Plus, it likely doesn’t have the money to pay for a report. I don’t see this issue as a problem, based on the fact that if these reports are used first and foremost as information sources, the investor takeaway is an in-depth history of the company, good rundown of the financials, comparison to the metrics of peers and a sense of future direction. Analysts, especially those with CFA designations, are not in the habit of making stuff up. The numbers are the numbers and all those used for the report are already freely available to the public. Investors should never confuse a positive tone with a flattering or pandering one; alarm bells should sound if the tenor of the report is overtly gushy. Compared to Wall Street, or traditional investment sealer research, fee-based reports give — or should — a clear picture of all compensation. ‘Traditional’ research rarely does this and while I draw no conclusions as to why, wouldn’t an investor just rather know? All a reputable fee-based analyst receives is a disclosed cash payment. No soft dollar arrangements, no investment banking relationships and no axe to grind. For my money, or rather a SmallCap company’s money, that seems a good deal for all involved.

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Sino Gas And Energy Holdings Limited (ASX:SEH) Report TB09 Final Flow Rate of 1,150,000 scf/day

June 2, 2011

Sino Gas And Energy Holdings Limited (ASX:SEH) Report TB09 Final Flow Rate of 1,150,000 scf/day

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Beach Energy Limited (ASX:BPT) Monthly Drilling Report Ended June 1 2011

June 1, 2011

Beach Energy Limited (ASX:BPT) Monthly Drilling Report Ended June 1 2011

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EUR/JPY Classical Technical Report 06.01

June 1, 2011

EUR/JPY Classical Technical Report 06.01

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FOREX TREND MONITOR: Markets Turn Spotlight on US Jobs Report

June 1, 2011

FOREX TREND MONITOR: Markets Turn Spotlight on US Jobs Report

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AUD/USD: Trading Australia’s 1Q GDP Report

May 31, 2011

AUD/USD: Trading Australia’s 1Q GDP Report

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Greece Missed Fiscal Targets Under Bailout

May 29, 2011

(Reuters) – Greece has missed all fiscal targets agreed under its bailout plan, a mission from an international inspection team found, putting further funding for Athens at risk, according to a German magazine. “The troika asserts in its report to be presented next week that Greece had missed all its agreed fiscal targets,” weekly Spiegel magazine reported in a prerelease. The International Monetary Fund, the European Commission and the European Central Bank — known as the troika — currently have a team in Greece assessing how sustainable the country’s debts are. The mission will be holding meetings next week before an expected finalization of the report. “The deficit in the public budget was higher than expected,” the magazine said, referring to the report’s findings. “The reason is that the Greek government still spends more than agreed in the aid programme. On top of that tax income is still lower than demanded.” The IMF has already said it cannot release its part of a 12 billion euro aid tranche to Greece next month if fiscal conditions underpinning the bailout are not met and the European Commission’s top economic official was quoted as saying the EU was setting the same conditions. “We Europeans have the same conditions as the IMF,” EU Economic Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn was quoted as saying in the same prerelease for Monday’s Spiegel magazine. “We will decide on the next tranche after the troika’s report. The situation is very serious,” Rehn added. At roughly 330 billion euros, or 150 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), Greece’s debt is so high that many economists believe the country will inevitably have to restructure eventually. The ailing euro zone state, which triggered the sovereign debt crisis in 2009, also needs to garner support from opposition parties for fiscal reforms before the European Union and International Monetary Fund free up more payments. EU officials have asked Athens to step up privatizations urgently and suggested setting up a trustee institution to help oversee the process, similar to the body that privatized East German companies after the fall of communism. Spiegel magazine also said the troika’s experts estimated Greece had assets worth 300 billion euros, which it could sell off to meet its targets. (Reporting by Annika Breidthardt; Editing by John Stonestreet) Copyright 2010 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Canadian Dollar to Rise as Ahead of GDP Report, Rate Decision

May 28, 2011

Canadian Dollar to Rise as Ahead of GDP Report, Rate Decision

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Bank Profits Soar And Corporate Bonuses Swell As Broader Economy Stagnates

May 25, 2011

The divide between corporate fortunes and those of ordinary Americans continues to widen, as banks post strong profits and the nation’s largest companies boost executive pay. Banks and corporations are exhibiting a confidence reminiscent of pre-crisis days, even as the broader economy still sputters. Bank profits soared in the first three months of the year, and corporate profits likewise swelled last year. And executives saw ever fatter bonuses. But the amount of cash banks sent out into the economy as loans declined last quarter, and the pace at which companies are hiring new workers remains disappointing with the unemployment rate stuck around 9 percent. For big corporations, the recession’s legacy has all but faded. But for much of the rest of America, finances are still tight. Home values are falling at an accelerating pace, and high energy prices recall the nightmarish summer of 2008. The widening divide in fortunes constitutes a long-term drag on the economy, experts say. “If a very small number of people have everything, everybody else has nothing,” said Mark Blyth, professor of international political economy at Brown University. “If they decide not to spend, or if they decide basically not to invest, then everyone else’s health and well-being depends upon the decisions of a few, whose consumption decisions are utterly different and completely independent of everyone else’s.” Bank revenue fell during the first three months of the year, but profits soared as institutions set aside less money to cover losses, according to new government report. Bank profits rose to reach $29 billion, a 66.5 percent increase from the same period last year and the best quarterly performance since the second quarter of 2007, the report said. Net operating revenue at banks insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation was 3.2 percent less than the same period a year ago, marking only the second time on record that the industry has reported a year-over-year quarterly revenue decline, the Tuesday report from the FDIC said. But banks stored away 60 percent less money to cover losses than a year ago, the smallest rainy-day provisions since the third quarter of 2007, according to the report. “The process of repairing bank balance sheets is well along, but is not yet complete,” FDIC chair Sheila Bair said in a Tuesday release, adding that “there is a limit to how far reductions in loan-loss provisions can boost industry earnings.” In corporate America, pay is up. For chief executives at the Standard & Poor’s 500 index companies, compensation grew last year after two years of decline, according to a report from private research firm Equilar. Median total compensation for S&P 500 chief executives swelled by 28.2 percent last year, largely driven by swelled bonuses. The median bonus for S&P 500 chiefs was nearly $2.2 million last year, a 43.3 percent increase from 2009, the report says. A variety of factors gave large companies a boost last year, including the Federal Reserve’s $600 billion asset-purchase program that began in the fall. As the Fed’s purchases of Treasury securities lowered interest rates, investors searching for yield turned toward riskier assets like equities, contributing to a stock market rally in the second half of the year. But in the broader economy, challenges remain. Companies have added hundreds of thousands of jobs so far this year, but the unemployment rate has still been hovering around 9 percent. Oil prices remain at highs reminiscent of 2008, when months of high energy prices helped drag the economy into recession. And home prices continue falling, with economists forecasting the decline to last at least through the rest of the year. Banks decreased their lending last quarter, with many still compensating for the excesses of the years leading up to the financial crisis. And nearly half of the loans to commercial and industrial borrowers — which increased overall — went to foreign borrowers, the FDIC says. Small loans to farms and businesses, a crucial source of jobs, declined by 2.8 percent, according to the FDIC. Economic weakness contributed to the erosion in bank revenue last quarter. Interest-earning assets showed weak growth, so that six of the 10 largest institutions reported year-over-year declines in net operating revenue, according to the FDIC. Banks’ other operations also proved less lucrative. Trading income was down by $1 billion last quarter, and service charges on deposit accounts declined by $1.7 billion, the FDIC says. Losses from bad loans, though, are gradually declining as the volume of delinquent loans goes down. Loans overdue for at least 90 days declined for the fourth quarter in a row to $341.7 billion by the end of March, a 4.7 percent decline from the end of 2010, according to the FDIC. The number of banks at risk of failure increased last quarter, as the FDIC’s “problem list” grew to 888 institutions from 884. That’s almost 12 percent of the banks insured by the FDIC. The pace of banks’ being added to the list, though, is slowing.

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EUR/USD: Trading the Preliminary U.S. 1Q GDP Report

May 25, 2011

EUR/USD: Trading the Preliminary U.S. 1Q GDP Report

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EUR/USD: Trading the Preliminary U.S. 1Q GDP Report

May 25, 2011

EUR/USD: Trading the Preliminary U.S. 1Q GDP Report

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David Isenberg: Showing the Private Military Contracting Sector the Money

May 23, 2011

Imagine a real life version of the Jerry Maguire movie. In this reality, the private military contracting community is played by Cuba Gooding and the Pentagon is played by Tom Cruise. As Cuba dances around the kitchen he shouts, increasingly loudly, “Show me the MONEY.” What does Tom do? Why, he delivers the money, of course. Okay, a little over the top perhaps; after all, we know the Pentagon can’t dance. Still this scenario nicely encapsulates the finding of a recent report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The report, Defense Contract Trends: U.S. Department of Defense Contract Spending and the Supporting Industrial Base , released May 6, confirms why so many private military and security contracting companies (PMSC) are out lusting after, oops, I mean competing for, federal contracts. Because that, as bank robber Willy Sutton famously said, is where the money is. Remember that PMSC firms, unlike the military-industrial complex of the past, are generally providing services, not hardware. Yes, there are exceptions, of course but they are small scale; they are not building fighter jets or aircraft carriers. And providing services will definitely make a CEO smile. The report notes at the outset, “In DoD contracting overall, services grew at a much faster pace in the past 20 years than did products and R&D, and were it not for combat operations in Iraq and Afghanistan would possibly have continued to receive the lion’s share of DoD contract awards.” How fast did spending on contracting grow? The report found that between 2001 and 2010, dollars obligated by the DOD to contract awards more than doubled, and contract spending far outpaced growth in other DOD outlays. Yes, but how much is that in actual dollars? The report says that in FY 1990 it was $49 billion. In FY 2010 it was $161 billion, or just over 40 percent of all contract spending — the other two categories being products and R&D. While people still debate whether military outsourcing is more efficient and effective than keeping it in-house, the report makes it clear that if the goal is to allow private sector companies to make huge profits it is unquestionably a success: Drawing down military and civilian personnel after the Cold War necessitated an increase in outsourcing to continue providing many services, while spending on products decreased with the numbers of active-duty military. The relative shares of product and services spending converged in 1998 and 1999, with the former decreasing and the latter increasing. After this point, products edged up over services, and the gap widened with the initiation of Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) in 2003. The relative shares of services and products appeared to begin converging again after 2008, as absolute spending levels declined sharply for products while spending on services remained relatively stable. The period covered in the report was from 1990 to 2010. As one might expect, given the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the Army and “other DoD” (primarily DLA) shares of total contracting grew while the Navy and Air Force shares declined. More recently, with U.S. forces set to withdraw from Iraq, the Army’s contract spending started to decrease in 2008 while the Navy’s spending also shrunk and continued its long decline after a short period of stagnation. The share of Air Force contract spending in the last few years declined to the lowest of all DOD components. Things were particularly sweet for Army contractors; think KBR LOGCAP awards for example. According to the report: Army contract spending has skyrocketed over the past decade. During the 1990s, the Army accounted for only 23 to 25 percent of total DOD contract spending. Beginning in FY 2002, this share started to grow rapidly, reaching 40 percent of total DOD contract spending by 2008. Growth in Army contract spending averaged over 11.5 percent per year since 1999. This rapid growth is almost entirely attributable to Army operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. From the viewpoint of getting the best bang for the buck the report actually had something positive to say about the state of competition in the Pentagon. Overall, the majority of DOD contract dollars were awarded on an increasingly competitive basis towards the end of the period analyzed, and dollars awarded competitively rose faster than those awarded without competition. The share of contract dollars awarded using fixed price contracts also grew, at a faster rate than cost-based contract awards. Up through 2009, there was a disturbing and sudden rise in “combination” contracts, which obfuscated the total distribution of cost and price-based contracts, but contract spending allocated to this category seems to have all but disappeared in 2010. The report noted important trends regarding contract competition: The first is a decrease since 2008 in the number of unlabeled contracts, which indicates that more care is taken in entering data on competitiveness. The second is an increase in fixed-price contracting that is faster than cost-based contracting, including time and materials, which is in line with the 2009 Presidential Memo calling for more use of fixed-price contracting across government. Of course, it is the Pentagon so it can’t all be sweetness and light. Thus, “In another trend viewed with concern in light of recent efficiency-promoting directives within DOD, the spending on indefinite delivery vehicles rose sharply in the past several years while definitive contracts and purchase orders stagnated and even declined in 2010.” If they do, then they are underestimating the total value of service contracts due to categorization issues. The Top 20 DOD Contractors for Services in 2009 were: (Contract value in 2010 in millions of dollars) Lockheed Martin 7,040 Northrop Grumman 6,050 KBR 4,660 L3 Communications 3,710 Humana 3,460 General Dynamics 3,370 Raytheon 3,130 Health Net 2,860 SAIC 2,840 Computer Sciences Corp. 2,800 TriWest Healthcare 2,700 Boeing 2,650 BAE Systems 2,120 URS 1,810 ITT 1,670 Booz Allen Hamilton 1,540 Hensel Phelps 1,420 Hewlett-Packard 1,410 CACI 1,390 Bechtel 1,270 Total for Top 57,890 Total for Services 162,460

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Jobless Claims Down As Labor Market Could Be Picking Up

May 19, 2011

WASHINGTON – The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, offering hope the labor market recovery remains on track. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 29,000 to a seasonally adjusted 409,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday, continuing to unwind the prior weeks’ spike. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims dropping to 420,000. The prior week’s figure was revised up to 438,000 from the previously reported 434,000. “Clearly what it shows is an ongoing healing in the labor market. The recent data have been skewed by special factors like the Easter holiday and supply chain issues coming out of Japan,” said Neil Dutta, a U.S. economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York. “Some of the increase in jobless claims have been organic due to the slowing in the economy.” U.S. stock index futures extended gains on the report, while prices for government debt widened losses. The dollar rose against the yen. The four-week moving average of unemployment claims, a better measure of underlying trends, rose 1,250 to 439,000 – the highest level since mid-November. The data covers the survey period for the government’s closely watched employment report for May, which will be released early next month. The recent jump in claims, blamed on auto layoffs because of supply chain disruptions from March’s Japanese earthquake and problems with adjusting data for seasonal variations, had raised fears of a pull back in the pace of job creation. Employers added 244,000 jobs in April, the most in 11 months. However, the unemployment rate rose to 9 percent from 8.8 percent in March. Despite the fall, claims held above the 400,000 mark for a sixth straight week, indicating payroll growth will only be gradual. The four-week average has now been above that level, which is normally associated with stable job growth, for four weeks in a row. A Labor Department official said only one state or territory, the Virgin Islands, had been estimated, indicating the report was largely clear of distortions. The number of people still receiving benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid fell 81,000 to 3.71 million in the week ended May 7. Economists had expected so-called continuing claims to fall to 3.72 million from a previously reported 3.76 million. The number of people on emergency unemployment benefits increased 53,398 to 3.47 million in the week ended April 30, the latest week for which data is available. A total of 7.94 million people were claiming unemployment benefits during that period under all programs. (Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Neil Stempleman) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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USD/CAD Classical Technical Report 05.19

May 19, 2011

USD/CAD Classical Technical Report 05.19

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USD/JPY Classical Technical Report 05.19

May 19, 2011

USD/JPY Classical Technical Report 05.19

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U.S. GAO – Banking Regulation: Enhanced Guidance on Commercial …

May 18, 2011

However, some banks have stated that examiners' treatment of CRE loans has hampered their ability to lend. This report examines, among other issues, (1) how the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), …

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Buccaneer Energy Limited (ASX:BCC) Kenai Loop No. 1 Well Drilling Update Report No. 4

May 18, 2011

Buccaneer Energy Limited (ASX:BCC) Kenai Loop No. 1 Well Drilling Update Report No. 4

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Revenues Down At Biggest Investment Banks, Report Finds

May 17, 2011

Revenues at the world’s biggest investment banks fell 5 percent to $52 billion in the first quarter of 2011, hit by Middle Eastern unrest, natural disasters, volatile commodities and economic uncertainty, a consultancy said in a report on the industry. The survey of the world’s top 10 banks by London consultancy Coalition attributed much of the decline from a year earlier to an 11 percent slump in revenues from fixed income, the biggest contributor to the banks’ earnings. However, fixed income had ‘held up well’ given the macro challenges, the report said. The asset class was the dominant driver of revenues over the last four years and contributed $31 billion in the first three months of 2011. “Performance was impacted by political turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa, natural disasters in Asia, rising inflation and commodities prices, as well as ongoing concerns in Euro periphery countries. Unsurprisingly, therefore, fixed income was the weakest asset class,” the report said. Credit saw the biggest fall in its contribution to total fixed income revenue, down 4 percentage points to 20 percent. Emerging markets-related revenues in fixed income were 2 percentage points lower than a year ago at 15 percent, following over-valuation and soaring inflation concerns, the report said. The ‘origination’ business, which includes fees from mergers and acquisitions and debt and equity capital markets business, saw revenues of $10 billion in the quarter, one billion more than last year. M&A contributed an extra percentage point making up 26 percent of revenues, benefiting from ‘ongoing confidence in the global recovery.’ Debt capital markets remained the ‘primary driver’ with 47 percent of origination revenues due to ‘strong volumes’ of high yield issuance, particularly in the Americas. Equity capital markets were down 1 percentage point from a year earlier, at 27 percent. Coalition, an independent research firm for the investment banking industry, tracks Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAC.N), Barclays (BARC.L), Citi (C.N), Credit Suisse (CSGN.VX), Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE), Goldman Sachs (GS.N), JP Morgan (JPM.N), Morgan Stanley (MS.N), Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS.L) and UBS (UBSN.VX). (Reporting by Cecilia Valente, Editing by Chris Vellacott and Jane Merriman) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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What Causes High Unemployment? Blame The Business Cycle, Report Finds

May 16, 2011

America’s current unemployment crisis is predominately the result of a pronounced dip in the business cycle, according to a new paper by economists at the International Monetary Fund. But, structural factors, like shortages of highly-skilled laborers, is keeping the jobless rate high, too, the paper finds. The authors of the IMF working paper, entitled ” New Evidence on Cyclical and Structural Sources of Unemployment ,” argue that roughly 75 percent of average unemployment is due to a lack of demand in the economy, 25 percent a result of workers not possessing desirable skills. In other words, the wave of joblessness in America is mostly due to cyclical factors, not inherent structural weaknesses, the paper finds. The causes of persistently high unemployment since the financial crisis are still a matter of debate. Paul Krugman wrote last September that “structural unemployment is a fake problem, which mainly serves as an excuse for not pursuing real solutions.” Since the financial crisis, a rising unemployment rate has transformed into an all-out unemployment crisis, reaching 10.1 percent in late 2009 from 4.4 percent just two and a half years earlier. By April 2011, it had dropped only somewhat, to 9.0 percent. The report contends the Great Recession closely mirrors the recession of 1973-1975, another period when shocks to various industrial sectors also played a large role in the rising unemployment. Long-term unemployment has become a critical problem in the U.S: the average length of unemployment between jobs now exceeds 30 weeks, the report says, which is 10 weeks higher than any other period dating back to the 1960s. The report also cites a 2011 study finding that 20 percent to 25 percent of the recent increase in unemployment can be attributed to “industrial and occupational mismatches” in the workforce, “rather than geographic mismatches.” Over the course of the Great Recession, however, 40 percent of America’s country’s long-term unemployment crisis comes from a structural mismatches in worker skills, the study finds. Compounding those structural issues is the foreclosure crisis. Bad housing conditions, the report contends, might “slow the exodus of jobless individuals from a depressed area,” making it difficult for people to get to the jobs. That combo — “skill mismatches and higher foreclosure rates” — has on its own raised the country’s unemployment rate by 1.5 percentage points since the beginning of the crisis, the report says. And as the length of unemployment increases, the study continues, the already “substantial” effect of structural shocks becomes even “more important,” with the worker’s change of finding a job dwindling by the day. Christina Romer, who formerly held a chair President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, made a similar point in a speech at Washington University in April. “While I am confident that most of the current elevated unemployment is due to cyclical factors, I am not at all sure that structural unemployment will not become more important going forward,” Romer then said. “[S]tructural unemployment has risen somewhat nationwide, and could rise further if we don’t reduce cyclical unemployment quickly[.]” Combatting that structural unemployment, Romer continued, requires investing in scientific research, better education and programs aimed at helping areas injured by trade. “Some will say that given our desperate long-run fiscal situation, we can’t possibly spend more on anything,” Romer said “I think this is deeply wrong.” Still, so far, it is the low levels of output associated with cyclical unemployment that has been “clearly the dominant factor” in explaining the unemployment crisis, the report contends. That would indicate that so long as the economy grows, it will bring as least some of America’s struggling workforce up with it. The IMF report stands in contrast to a March report by researchers at the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank that argues the unemployment crisis to be predominately cyclical. They based their claim on the recent difficulties of young college graduates to find jobs, under the assumption that if the issue is structural, there would still be a demand for college graduates. Read the working paper below: wp11106

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Dean Baker: The Good News and the Bad News in the Social Security Trustees’ Report

May 16, 2011

There was both good news and bad news in the Social Security trustees’ report released last week. The bad news is that the program is projected to cost somewhat more in the latest report than in the 2010 report. As a result, its projected 75-year shortfall was increased by 0.3 percentage points of covered payroll from 1.92 percent to 2.22 percent. The year when it was first projected to face a shortfall was moved up a year from 2037 to 2036. This bad news about the program is also the good news. The main reason that the program’s finances deteriorated between the 2010 report and the 2011 report is that in the 2011 report the trustees assumed that we would enjoy substantially longer life expectancies than they did in the 2010 report. They increased their projected life expectancy for men turning age 65 in 2010 from 18.1 years to 18.6 years, a gain of 0.5 years. The trustees increased their projected life expectancy for women turning age 65 by 0.3 years. Remarkably, virtually no one in the deficit-obsessed media even noticed this projected increase in life expectancy, simply highlighting the bad news about Social Security’s finances. Of course the trustees likely anticipated how their report would be received. It is important to recognize that this is the report of the Social Security trustees, not the professional staff of the Social Security Administration (SSA). The six trustees include three Obama cabinet members, the head of the Social Security Administration, who is a holdover Bush appointee, and Charles Blahous, an independent trustee who was President Bush’s point man on his Social Security privatization drive. The professional staff of SSA does make recommendations to the trustees, but these recommendations are held as carefully guarded secrets, like battle plans in the war on terrorism. Even accepting the 2011 report at face value the picture is hardly as dire as many politicians in Washington are claiming. We have seen much worse before. For example in 1997, the trustees projected a shortfall that was equal to 2.23 percent of payroll . At that time, their projections showed the trust fund first being depleted in 2029. The 1997 report also assumed a slower rate of real wage growth than the 2011 report. A lower rate of real wage growth meant that any tax increase that might have been imposed to maintain long-term solvency would have taken up a larger share of the growth in the real wage of the average worker. Alternatively, any cut in benefits would have done more to slow the improvement in the living standards of retirees over time. There can be little doubt that the most recent projections show a much brighter picture of Social Security and the economy going forward than what was projected through most of the 1990s. It is also important to keep the Social Security numbers in context. Proponents of cuts to Social Security have spent fortunes on pollsters and focus groups trying to put the program’s finances in the most dire possible light. They are fond of reporting things like the program’s $17.9 trillion shortfall over the infinite horizon . The focus groups show that this one is really good for scaring people. After all, “trillion” is a really huge number and $17.9 trillion must be really really huge. Of course no one has any clue what “infinite horizon” means. So no one knows that this is a projection of what the program looks like in the 23rd, 24th, and 25th century and beyond, if we never change it in any way. The vast majority of this $17.9 trillion shortfall comes in years after 2200. Social Security does have a long planning period, but if anyone thinks that we are actually making policy for the 24th century then we should keep this person far removed from the levers of power. The best way to make the size of the projected Social Security shortfall understandable is to put it in context. Relative to the size of the economy, the projected Social Security shortfall is equal to 0.7 percent of GDP. By comparison, annual spending on the military increased by more than 1.6 percentage points of GDP between 2000 and 2011. So the burden imposed by the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are almost 2.5 times larger than the money that would be needed to eliminate the Social Security shortfall. To take another point of reference, the Congressional Budget Office’s analysis of the Ryan Medicare privatization plan implied that it would increase the cost of buying Medicare-equivalent policies by more than $34 trillion , a sum that is almost five times as large as the projected Social Security shortfall. If the Social Security shortfall is a really big deal, then the additional costs attributable to the Ryan plan are five times a really big deal. Interestingly, almost no one in the media seems to be talking about that burden.

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US Dollar Index Classical Technical Report 05.16

May 16, 2011

US Dollar Index Classical Technical Report 05.16

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US Dollar Index Classical Technical Report 05.16

May 16, 2011

US Dollar Index Classical Technical Report 05.16

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Former S.E.C. Official Subject Of Criminal Probe

May 14, 2011

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Federal criminal authorities are investigating whether a former U.S. securities regulator inappropriately represented alleged fraudster Allen Stanford after he left the agency in 2005. Spencer Barasch, former head of enforcement for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in Fort Worth, Texas, is being probed by the U.S. Attorney’s Office and Federal Bureau of Investigation, SEC enforcement director Robert Khuzami and SEC Inspector General David Kotz told lawmakers on Friday. The criminal probe follows SEC internal findings that Barasch made numerous requests after he left the SEC to represent Stanford and was turned down each time. Barasch persisted in his requests even though he directly dealt with Stanford matters while at the SEC and was partly responsible for ignoring repeated red flags SEC examiners raised about Stanford as early as 1997, Kotz found in a 2010 report. He later eventually did provide some legal counsel to Stanford in 2006, the report found. “The rules clearly prohibited from … in my view, representing Mr. Stanford,” Khuzami told a House Financial Services oversight subcommittee on Friday. “We made a referral to criminal authorities.” In addition, Kotz and Khuzami said they had also referred the matter for investigation to the Texas and Washington, D.C. bars. Republican lawmakers called the hearing to investigate why it took the SEC so long to probe Stanford, a Texas financier, despite repeated attempts by SEC examiners to bring the matter to the enforcement division’s attention. The agency finally filed civil charges against Stanford in February 2009. Stanford was arrested in June 2009 and criminally charged with fraud in connection with a $7 billion scheme linked to certificates of deposit issued by his Antigua-based banking company. Stanford has denied any wrongdoing. REVOLVING DOOR After leaving the SEC, Barasch became a partner at law firm Andrews Kurth. In response to an inquiry from Reuters earlier this week, Andrews Kurth Managing Partner Bob Jewell said Barasch had not done anything wrong. “We disagree with the characterization of Mr. Barasch’s involvement put forth by the Inspector General in his report last year,” he said. “We believe he acted properly during his contacts with the Stanford Financial Group and the Securities and Exchange Commission. He did not violate conflicts of interest.” The testimony about Barasch came on the same day the Project on Government Oversight, a government watchdog group, issued a report about the “revolving door” at the SEC. It found that 219 former officials at the SEC have left since 2006 to help clients with business before the agency. Federal laws place certain restrictions on many SEC and other government employees once they return to the private sector. In addition to a one-year cooling off period, they are generally prohibited from representing a client before a government agency on any matter in which they were personally and substantially involved. Some lawmakers say stricter policies are needed. Republican Randy Neugebauer, the chairman of the panel, claimed Barasch represented a client before the SEC in a legal matter as recently as last Friday. “One of the things that hopefully comes out of this is there are some tighter rules,” he said. “It is obviously very alarming.”

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Video: Holder on Osama Bin Laden: Political Capital With Al Hunt

May 14, 2011

May 13 (Bloomberg) — U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder talks with Bloomberg’s Al Hunt about al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden’s desire to target senior U.S. officials before his death. Bloomberg’s Hans Nichols and Julie Davis discuss the congressional debate over the U.S. debt ceiling, and U.S. ties with Pakistan. Lara Setrakian talks about efforts to oust Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi. Commentators Margaret Carlson and Kate O’Beirne discuss Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels’s possible run for the presidency in 2012 and President Barack Obama’s position on immigration. (This report is an excerpt. Source: Bloomberg)

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‘SEC’s Revolving Door Seems To Be More Active Than Ever"

May 13, 2011

WASHINGTON (Tim Reid) – At least 219 former officials at the Securities and Exchange Commission have left since 2006 to help clients with business before the agency, bringing fresh allegations of a “revolving door” that leaves the commission too cozy with the Wall Street firms it regulates. According to a report to be released on Friday, between 2006 and 2010 there were 219 former SEC employees who filed letters with the agency indicating their intent to represent a client with business before the commission. In all, those former officials advised firms on SEC business nearly 800 times, according to an advance copy of the report seen by Reuters. The study by the nonpartisan Project on Government Oversight, which analyzed post-employment statements provided by the SEC after a Freedom of Information Act request, says the former officials joined a total of 131 firms to provide legal, lobbying, accounting and other advice to clients being investigated or regulated by the SEC. Republican Senator Charles Grassley, a senior member of the Senate Finance Committee, said of the report: “The SEC’s revolving door seems to be more active than ever.” Grassley said there should be public disclosure of where former financial regulators are working and what issues they are working on. “Transparency is a proven back-stop to enforce ethics rules,” he said. A report by the SEC’s Inspector General earlier this year criticized the SEC for failing to keep adequate records about potential conflicts of interest. While critics such as Grassley contend the system leaves the SEC unable to effectively regulate Wall Street, defenders argue the practice of officials leaving government agencies to work in the private sector is to be expected. “Who do you want representing these clients before agencies such as the SEC with very, very complex rules,” said Roberta Karmel, a former SEC commissioner and now a professor at Brooklyn Law School. “Lawyers who know nothing about the rules — or lawyers who do?” Professor Karmel added that the SEC is one of the few agencies that require former employees to provide written notice if they intend to represent a client before the commission. SEC employees are barred by federal law for life from working on matters that they worked on while at the commission. “We have a rigorous program for departing employees to help them meet both the spirit and the letter of the law,” said John Nester, an SEC spokesman. The oversight group’s report shows some SEC officials joined new employees with business before the commission within days of leaving the agency. Alan Reifenberg, for example, a branch chief in the SEC’s Enforcement division, resigned on June 6, 2006. Six days later he joined Credit Suisse. Many companies who hired SEC officials turned to them for help in SEC litigation. Jill Slansky, a former senior attorney in the SEC’s New York Regional Office, resigned in December 2009. In June 2010, she filed a statement saying she had been retained to represent an unidentified client in a lawsuit brought by the SEC against Galleon Management, the complaint that charged billionaire hedge fund owner Raj Rajaratnam with insider trading. He was found guilty on 14 counts this week. John Freeman, a former SEC lawyer and now an emeritus professor at the University of South Carolina School of Law, did his own SEC “revolving door” study in 2003 and found a high proportion of officials left to work for regulated entities. “A lot of the brain power and logistical know-how that existed in the SEC was being used for the benefit of mutual fund managers and not for the benefit of shareholders,” said Freeman. (Reporting by Tim Reid; Editing by Tim Dobbyn) Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Australian Dollar Tumbles as April Jobs Report Disappoints

May 12, 2011

Australian Dollar Tumbles as April Jobs Report Disappoints

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FOREX: Risk Trends Searching for Direction, Bank of England Inflation Report on Tap

May 11, 2011

FOREX: Risk Trends Searching for Direction, Bank of England Inflation Report on Tap

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Bank of England Inflation Report Takes on Hawkish Hew; Sterling Leaps

May 11, 2011

Bank of England Inflation Report Takes on Hawkish Hew; Sterling Leaps

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D’Aguilar Gold Limited (ASX:DGR) Report Mt Isa Metals Limited (ASX:MET) High Grade Copper-Gold Drilling Results

May 10, 2011

D’Aguilar Gold Limited (ASX:DGR) Report Mt Isa Metals Limited (ASX:MET) High Grade Copper-Gold Drilling Results

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Crude Oil, Gold to Recover as Soft US Jobs Report Stokes Dovish Fed Bets

May 6, 2011

Crude Oil, Gold to Recover as Soft US Jobs Report Stokes Dovish Fed Bets

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FOREX: US Dollar May Give Back Some Recent Gains on Soft Jobs Report

May 6, 2011

FOREX: US Dollar May Give Back Some Recent Gains on Soft Jobs Report

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IMF to adjust Iran’s economy report

May 3, 2011

IMF to adjust Iran’s economy report

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Summer 2011 To Be Worst For Teen Jobs

May 2, 2011

A record-low one in four U.S. teenagers will land a summer job in the coming months as a result of a still-poor job market and lost federal funding, according to a report issued on Monday. As a consequence, urban studies experts said cities like Chicago—where summer unemployment among African-Americans aged 16 to 19 years approaches 90 percent—could experience a rise in street violence. “Both national and local leadership continue to ignore the plight of youth who are most at risk for potential violence as a result of being left on the streets in the summer months when crime is at its most explosive,” Chicago Urban League President Andrea Zopp said in a statement. The summer employment rate among U.S. teen-agers this year was projected at between 25 percent and 27 percent, based on an analysis of four decades of employment trends by Andrew Sum of the Center for Labor Market Studies at Northeastern University in Boston. That would be a post-World War Two low, while as recently as 2006 the teen summer employment rate was 37 percent. U.S. economic growth has been sluggish since the recession ended in June 2009, with job growth lagging the recovery and unemployment still at a lofty 8.8 percent. The long-term impact of higher summer joblessness among young people is a less-experienced work force and increased government spending due to lower lifetime earnings, reduced tax revenues and higher prison costs, experts said. In Chicago alone, nearly 700 children were hit by gunfire last year, with 66 deaths, though the city’s overall murder rate declined, said Jack Wuest, executive director of the Alternative Schools Network which commissioned the report. “We cannot continue to ignore the correlation between youth violence and teen employment,” Wuest said. “We know if our teens are in school or at a job they are not on the streets.” Federal stimulus dollars directed to cities and applied to summer jobs programs have run out and the funding was not renewed by Congress, meaning 18,000 more Illinois teen-agers will be jobless this summer, according to the report. Copyright 2010 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Video: Obama, Musharraf, Chertoff Own Words on Bin Laden Death

May 2, 2011

May 2 (Bloomberg) — President Barack Obama, former Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf, and former Department of Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff offer their views on the killing of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden by U.S. special forces yesterday in Pakistan. This report also contains comments from Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co.; Paul Rosenzweig, senior legal fellow for the Heritage Foundation and Richard Falkenrath, a principal at the Chertoff Group and a Bloomberg Television contributing editor. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Warren Buffett’s Mistake: How The Saint Of Capitalism Damaged His Reputation

May 1, 2011

Yesterday morning, thousands of shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway, one of the world’s most well-regarded companies, flocked to a convention hall in Omaha, Nebraska, for a meeting with their venerated leader, Warren Buffett. Over the course of his long and extremely lucrative career, Buffett has built a reputation for himself as a paragon of integrity and virtue, and the annual meeting of his company’s shareholders has come to resemble a sort of beatification ceremony, if you can imagine a religion in which the same person is beatified year after year. Buffett has called the gathering the “Woodstock of Capitalism,” nicely evoking both the massiveness of the crowd and the blissed-out vibe that pervades it. The vibe going into this year’s convention, however, was different. The trouble began about five months ago, when David Sokol, a top lieutenant in Berkshire Hathaway, persuaded Buffett to take over a chemical-products manufacturer called Lubrizol. Buffett later said that he had initially been cool on the idea, and it’s hard not to wonder if something Sokol told him bothered him on some level, even an unconscious one. At some point in their conversation, Sokol had mentioned that he owned personal stock in Lubrizol (his lawyer says that Buffett was in fact informed of this not once but twice), yet he didn’t say how much he owned or how he’d come to own it. As it turned out, Sokol had come to own the stock only a few weeks before, after learning about Lubrizol through a group of investment bankers who suggested that Berkshire look into buying the company. And as it also turned out, he’d come to own a lot of it — ten million dollars worth, to be exact. In other words, Sokol bought the shares knowing there was a chance he could convince Buffett to take over the company, which would almost certainly make the stocks’ value shoot up. Shoot up, it did. Buffett bought Lubrizol for 9 billion dollars, and Sokol’s 10 million dollars became 13 million. Was this insider trading? Perhaps. The legalities are murky. But as any first-year business student could have told you, it reflected poor ethical judgment on Sokol’s part. Sokol resigned when the full story came out, and is now under investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Buffet’s vaunted reputation, meanwhile, took a blow. On Tuesday, an audit committee convened by Berkshire Hathaway released a report that sharply rebuked Sokol for violating the company’s “highest standards of business ethics,” while absolving Buffett and further distancing him from his former presumed successor. According to the report, Sokol first learned of Lubrizol last fall through investment bankers at Citigroup, who’d specifically come to him with the names of companies they thought might interest Buffett. On December 13, a Monday, Sokol asked Citi to introduce him to Lubrizol’s CEO, James Hambrick, and the next day, he made his first purchase of Lubrizol stock, 2,300 shares. That Friday, a Citi representative told Sokol that Hambrick had agreed to convey the news of Bershire’s possible interest to the Lubrizol board, and on Tuesday, Sokol unloaded his stock. But two weeks later, over the course of three days, he bought 96,060 shares for a total of $10 million. On January 14, Hambrick and Sokol agreed to meet, and either that day or the next Sokol made his pitch to Buffett. The report says Buffett was “initially unimpressed,” but asked how Sokol had learned of the company. Sokol “mentioned” that he owned Lubrizol stock but did not say how much he’d bought, or when he’d bought, or anything about his conversations with Citi or Lubrizol that might have caused concern. In fact, the report maintains that Buffett didn’t learn of Citi’s involvement until after Berkshire and Lubrizol announced the signing of the merger agreement in March, when “a Citi representative with whom Berkshire Hathaway did business congratulated Mr. Buffett” and mentioned that Citi investors had played a part. In response to the report, a lawyer for Sokol said Sokol had been “studying Lubrizol for personal investment since the summer of 2010,” and that when he bought the stock, he “had no reason to anticipate that Mr. Buffett would have any interest whatsoever in Lubrizol.” Despite the audit committee’s apparent confidence in Buffett’s blamelessness, Buffett still faces criticism over a letter that he wrote to the media last month, in which he announced Sokol’s resignation while playing down any suggestion that the younger man had done anything wrong. “Neither Dave nor I feel his Lubrizol purchases were in any way unlawful,” he wrote. This seemed surprising coming from a businessman who has constantly exhorted his employees not just to stay within the law but to do what’s ethically right, who famously said , “Lose money for the firm and I will be understanding, lose even a shred of reputation and I will be ruthless.” After his letter came out, questions swirled: What had happened to the valiant hero who’d made that famous vow? Had Buffett grown soft? http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/04/04/buffetts-ruthlessness-is-oddly-absent/ Had he lost the will or the nerve required to be ruthless? At the meeting yesterday, Buffett was harder on Sokol, and on himself. He called the situation “inexplicable and inexcusable” and said, “”I obviously made a big mistake by not saying, ‘Well when did you buy it?” http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/30/us-berkshire-idUSTRE73T06920110430 So why didn’t he? The most obvious and plausible explanation is the one that casts Buffett in the kindest light. Buffett built his company on the principle that the managers under him should be allowed to operate with as much freedom as possible. Had Berkshire Hathaway been an ordinary company, Sokol might have had to report his stock purchases to a legal department, but no one has ever accused Berkshire Hathaway of being a ordinary company. Only 21 people, including Buffett himself, work at the company’s headquarters, which occupy a single floor of an office building in Omaha. Berkshire is often described as “decentralized,” which is another way of saying that it’s centered around Buffett’s trust in his managers. “Trust has gotten Berkshire very far,” said Jeff Matthews, a Berkshire Hathaway shareholder and the author of “Secrets in Plain Sight: Business & Investing Secrets of Warren Buffett.” “It’s worked,” he said. “People do what they’re good at, they do what they love to do. They don’t work for the money, they work for the joy of it. They don’t have some home office MBA telling them how to run a business.” Buffett trusted Sokol. In his 11-year tenure at Berkshire Hathaway, Sokol had proven highly adept at earning Buffett money, and Buffett, in turn, had endowed Sokol with a great amount of responsibility. Most recently, he’d put him in charge of NetJets, a Berkshire subsidiary that offered rentals and fractional ownerships of luxury jets and specialized in causing Buffett distress; it lost $711 million before taxes in 2009. Sokol ordered a gut renovation of NetJets , reducing its debt from 1.9 billion to 1.3 billion, slashing about $100 million in costs, furloughing hundreds of pilots, and sweeping senior management out the door. This turned out to be the right move. Within a year, NetJets was posting profits again, as Buffett triumphantly reported in a letter to shareholders, lauding the “ breadth and importance of Dave Sokol’s achievements ” just a week before the impropriety of Sokol’s Lubrizol purchase came to light. By giving free reign to Sokol, who many considered to be his top choice for a successor, Buffett opened the way for a breach like this to happen. In other words, the very quality that has arguably made Buffett one of the most admired business leaders in history, never mind the third-richest man in the world, is the same quality that exposed his company to abuse. Which is not to say that Buffett himself is perfect. Far from it. He’s been linked to questionable dealings before, notably in 2004, when General Re, an insurance concern that Buffett had owned since 1998, came under investigation for conducting fraudulent business with American International Group in 2000. Then, as now, Buffett was criticized for granting an executive too much leeway to operate; in that case, the role of Sokol was played by Ronald Ferguson, then the CEO of General Re. In 2008, a jury convicted Ferguson and three other former General Re executives, along with one former AIG executive, on corporate fraud and conspiracy charges, and Ferguson was sentenced to three years in prison. So Buffett’s management style is a gamble, and it’s possible that if he were to adopt a more cautious approach he wouldn’t be nearly as successful as he is. Of course, that still doesn’t answer the question of why he defended Sokol even after the full story of his purchases was disclosed. In the Buffett biography “The Snowball,” Alice Schroeder quotes Buffett telling a group of business school students, “Basically, when you get to my age, you’ll really measure your success in life by how many of the people you want to have love you do love you. I know people who have a lot of money, and they get testimonial dinners and they get hospitals wings named after them. But the truth is that nobody in the world loves them.” If it’s true that Buffett initially held back from censuring Sokol out of some fear of losing respect or admiration or even love, how ironic that this misstep should cost him so much of those very things. At yesterday’s meeting in Omaha, Buffett took steps to restore them. He discussed the possibility of two acquisitions that would be about the size of the Lubrizol deal, http://www.cnbc.com/id/42839336 and said that he was considering someone new to step into his shoes. “I would lay a lot of money,” he said, “on him being straight as an arrow.”

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USD/CHF Classical Technical Report 04.29

April 29, 2011

USD/CHF Classical Technical Report 04.29

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FOREX: Markets to Look Past German Jobs Report, Focus on US GDP

April 28, 2011

FOREX: Markets to Look Past German Jobs Report, Focus on US GDP

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EUR/USD: Trading the Advance 1Q U.S. GDP Report

April 27, 2011

EUR/USD: Trading the Advance 1Q U.S. GDP Report

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DXY Classical Technical Report 04.26

April 26, 2011

DXY Classical Technical Report 04.26

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DXY Classical Technical Report 04.26

April 26, 2011

DXY Classical Technical Report 04.26

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GBP/USD: Trading the Advance 1Q U.K. GDP Report

April 25, 2011

GBP/USD: Trading the Advance 1Q U.K. GDP Report

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Small Business Owners Plan To Hire Despite Cash Flow Concerns

April 20, 2011

Yesterday, American Express OPEN released the results of its latest Small Business Monitor, a biannual survey of small business owners. While the report revealed that more small business owners plan to hire over the next six months, it also found that fewer business owners are comfortable with their current cash flow situation. Here’s a graphical look at this trend.

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The 10 Most Peaceful States

April 20, 2011

While the nation as a whole might be in financial disarray, some states have found surprising success in lowering government spending by reducing crime, according to a new report by the Institute for Economics and Peace . When taken together, costs like incarceration, medical, judicial and policing leave the average single American tax payer paying roughly $1,425 per year, the report finds. And that’s before taking into account the productivity lost from pulling potential workers out of the U.S. economy and sticking them in prison. But costs range across states by significant amounts. Of the 10 most peaceful states, for example, seven also ranked in the top 10 for lowest cost of crime per person, with safest-state Maine spending just $656 per person. Compare that with Louisiana, which spends $2,458 per person. The safest states in the U.S. not only scored well on the original five indicators, either. They also performed well in areas like education, one factor highly-correlated with safety, with the safest states tending to have high graduation rates and larger numbers of diplomas per person. Household income also correlates with the peacefulness of a state, with three of the five safest states found to be in the top 10 for household income. According to the report, the U.S. as a whole has become 8 percent safer since 1995, and the country could save much more money if it became even less violent. If California could decrease violence by 25 percent, for example, the state could save the state $16 billion, the report contends. Even Vermont, a relatively small and safe state, could save $253 million if it reduced violence by that same amount. The index on which the report is based has five primary indicators: (1) number of homicides per 100,000 people, (2) number of violent crimes per 100,000 people, (3) number of people in jail per 100,000 people, (4) number of police officers per 100,000 people and (5) general availability of small arms. Below is the list of the 10 most peaceful states in the United States according to the Institute for Economics and Peace.

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Video: London Skyscraper Boom Ends as City Adopts Cheaper Plans

April 20, 2011

April 20 (Bloomberg) — Bloomberg’s Adam Haynes reports from London on the shift away from iconic skyscrapers as developers adopt cheaper, less ambitious plans. This report includes comments from Ken Shuttleworth, the architect of the landmark Gherkin building.

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USD/JPY Classical Technical Report 04.20

April 20, 2011

USD/JPY Classical Technical Report 04.20

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New Financial Reform Law Could Have Resolved Lehman, Regulator Argues

April 18, 2011

The failure of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., which caused financial panic and sent markets into a tailspin, could have been avoided had last year’s financial reform law already been in effect. A Monday report from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation says the firm could have been wound down in an orderly manner, maintaining the value of its assets and ongoing operations. Counter-parties would have been prevented from fleeing and financial markets likely would have absorbed the outcome with minimal disruption, the report concludes. The legislation that forms the basis of the FDIC’s report, known as Dodd-Frank for its principal sponsors in Congress, seeks to end the perception that some financial firms are too big to fail. This could prevent future taxpayer-funded bailouts by allowing regulators to wind down large institutions outside the bankruptcy process. It came in response to the extraordinary steps taken by policymakers in 2008-09 to shore up the U.S. financial system after bankers’ and traders’ outsized risks failed to pay off, necessitating trillions of taxpayer dollars for equity investments in private firms and asset- and debt-guarantees. FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair hailed the report’s findings. Had Dodd-Frank been in place, it says, Lehman’s creditors may have recovered as much as 97 cents on the dollar. By comparison, they’re forecast to receive about 21 cents on the dollar. The optimistic analysis assumes that the FDIC would have fully used its newly-gained powers in the months leading up to Lehman’s Sept. 2008 failure to plan for its demise, find a ready buyer and maximize the value of its assets, thus minimizing the effect the failure would have on the broader market and on taxpayers. The report assumes the FDIC would have begun taking action about six months earlier, in March 2008. But the global investment bank had substantial operations overseas. It also had about 8,000 subsidiaries and affiliates, Harvey R. Miller, one of Lehman’s bankruptcy attorneys, said last September before the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission. And on the day of its bankruptcy filing, the firm was a party to more than 10,000 derivatives contracts worldwide relating to about 1.7 million transactions, Miller said. Finance experts say regulators will never be able to resolve failing international firms like Lehman in the kind of orderly manner envisioned by policymakers. “We need a cross-border resolution authority, but we’re not going to get one,” said Simon Johnson, a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund and a professor at MIT’s Sloan School of Management. “The disruption in the U.S. was due to what happened in Europe and the U.K., and unless you have a cross-border regime you can’t deal with that going forward.” “And that’s not something anyone is working on,” he added. Policymakers in office at the time, including Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and current Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, argue the government was forced to bail out firms and their creditors because they lacked a legal mechanism to resolve so-called “nonbanks,” whose size and reach prevented them from undergoing an orderly wind-down in bankruptcy. But Lehman was not bailed out and panic ensued as markets were caught unprepared. Commentators and Wall Street figures point to the government’s decision to let the firm fail as the biggest mistake of the crisis, one that led to such widespread panic that investors fled and asset prices plunged, making bailouts of multiple other banks inevitable. Dodd-Frank would have helped if Lehman were purely a domestic outfit, Johnson said, but if that were the case, bankruptcy should have been used to “let the market sort out the winners and losers.” Lehman entered bankruptcy claiming $639 billion in assets. It’s the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history. Fees associated with the filing have already topped $1 billion and continue to grow. The agency’s new powers “give us the tools to end Too Big to Fail and eliminate future bailouts,” Bair said in a statement. But, she noted, “much work remains to be done.”

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Australian Market Report of April 18, 2011: Conquest Mining (ASX:CQT) Report Strong Production At Pajingo Gold Mine In The March Quarter

April 18, 2011

Australian Market Report of April 18, 2011: Conquest Mining (ASX:CQT) Report Strong Production At Pajingo Gold Mine In The March Quarter

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