retail

Americans Reject Credit Cards This Holiday Season

December 20, 2010

More Americans are choosing paper over plastic — for their method of payment, at least. In yet another sign that consumers are wary to use credit cards, more than half of American adults are not using credit to do holiday shopping, according to a recently released poll. The poll, conducted by Marist Poll at Marist College , found further that only 9% of consumers are charging all of their purchases, with another 9% charging most of them. Unsurprisingly, the results of the poll also found a divide spending habits along income lines, with 66% of those earning less under $50,000 foregoing credit. Among those who earn more than $50,000 47% said they were foregoing credit this holiday season. This credit card caution is unsurprising considering that over 13 million Americans are still paying off credit card debt incurred in 2009′s holiday season. The cutback in credit was reiterated in the results of a Consumer Reports survey , which also reported a drop in holiday spending to an average of $679, down $20 from last year. Other sources have reported increases in holiday spending , including the National Retail Federation (NRF), which expects 3.3% growth this November and December from last year. Kathy Grannis, a spokesperson for the NRF, noted that despite the projected increase in spending, people were turning instead to debit cards to shop, in lieu of charging to credit. “Based on what we’ve seen in our surveys, stores indicate people are cutting back on credit card usage,” she said. Credit card debt has fallen steadily for the last 26 months, according to the Federal Reserve Consumer Credit Report , a signal perhaps that this year’s shoppers will avoid last year’s holiday spending hangover. “This year, we are hearing that consumers are saving up for the gifts that they’re buying,” Grannis said.

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New Zealand Dollar Falls after Retail Sales Tumble Most in 13 Years

December 14, 2010

New Zealand Dollar Falls after Retail Sales Tumble Most in 13 Years

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FOMC meeting is highlight of the U.S session, along with PPI and Retail

December 14, 2010

FOMC meeting is highlight of the U.S session, along with PPI and Retail

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CHART: How Colors Affect What You Buy

December 13, 2010

Did you know that the color red has been proven to increase consumers heart rates? Or that purple is used to create a sense of calm in customers? This infographic from KissMetrics (hat tip to PFSK ) suggests the myth of the rational economic consumer is complete bunk. The next time you reach for a black or orange item, realize that you’ve fallen prey to the impulse shopper portion of the retail color wheel. Check out the infographic below to see how retailers believe you’ll respond to the subtle art of color choice.

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Global Retail Theft Barometer study sinds shrinkage down 5.6%

December 8, 2010

Global Retail Theft Barometer study sinds shrinkage down 5.6%

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TAX CUT MYTHS: Fact Checking The Showdown In Congress

December 4, 2010

NEW YORK — As debate rages on extending tax cuts set to expire at the end of the year, politicians are making misleading statements about who might be hurt or helped. Before the midterm elections, President Barack Obama insisted that lower income-tax rates should be permanently extended only to those he called the “middle class.” People in the top two tax brackets would face higher rates. Now, with Republicans triumphant, the White House is trying to hash out a compromise so rates don’t automatically revert to their higher, pre-2001 levels for everyone in the new year. One possible deal: extending all the lower rates for a yet-undetermined period of time, perhaps two or three years. Time is running out, as is patience. In a purely symbolic vote, House Democrats on Thursday passed a bill extending lower rates for everyone but those in the top brackets. House Republican leader John Boehner said the vote ran counter to efforts to forge a deal, dubbing it “chicken crap” political maneuvering. Here are a few myths, half-truths and short-hand distortions that have marred the debate: _ Under the Obama plan, taxes will increase for families making more than $250,000. Wrong. Actually, a family could make a lot more and still not face higher taxes. Obama wants to raise the top two brackets from 33 percent to 36 percent and from 35 percent to 39.6 percent. The first of the two – 36 percent – is widely assumed to kick in at $250,000. Obama says that himself. But that’s not right. The higher rate would apply to families with $232,000 or more of taxable income, or what’s left after personal exemptions and deductions have been subtracted from income. Deductions can be sizable, especially for wealthy people. Think state and local taxes, mortgage interest and charitable contributions. The result is that a family making $300,000 or even more could have taxable income of less than $232,000. “A lot of people making more than $250,000 won’t be paying higher taxes,” says Clint Stretch, a managing principal of Deloitte Tax. So where does the $250,000 come from? That’s a number for “adjusted gross income,” which is total income minus a few things like 401(k) contributions and alimony payments. A family that had adjusted gross income of $250,000 and took two personal exemptions, plus a standard deduction instead of itemizing, would have taxable income of $232,000. So $250,000 is distorting. It refers to adjusted gross income, not total income. And most people in that income range itemize their deductions. The key number for families is taxable income of $232,000; for individuals, it’s taxable income of $191,000. Only 2 percent of U.S. households would face the 36 percent tax rate, according to the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center, a Washington think tank. _ Tax hikes would prevent small businesses from hiring. Well, maybe. But the numbers cited as proof are flimsy at best. Critics say Obama’s plan to raise taxes on the highest earners would hobble the businesses that generate most of the nation’s new jobs. Yet fewer than 3 percent of small businesses produce enough income to face the higher rates, according to the Tax Policy Center. Some Republicans note that this tiny slice accounts for half of total small-business income. So the damage to the economy would be more than you’d think, they say. But many of these businesses aren’t what most people would consider small anyway. The IRS doesn’t have a category of tax filers called “small business.” Analysts who study taxes use the next best thing, which isn’t very good at all: business owners who use their personal 1040 to file taxes instead of a corporate return. For example, some hedge funds and law firms pay their taxes through the personal returns of their individual partners. While these are lumped in as “small businesses” and would pay higher taxes, they are far different from the retail stores and small manufacturers that most people associate with the term and which would not pay higher taxes. _ Keeping Bush’s tax cuts for the top earners would swell U.S. debt by $700 billion, unconscionable in an age of budget-busting outlays. Somewhat misleading. The lower tax receipts would accumulate over 10 years – not one year. On average, that means $70 billion less for the government each year, or about 1/30th of all federal receipts. _ Bush tax cuts for millionaires average more than $100,000 a year and should be eliminated. Misleading, again. The term millionaire can include people making tens of millions or even billions. Their tax breaks are much larger. An average doesn’t capture the benefit for most millionaires. According to Deloitte Tax, a typical family making exactly $1 million pays about $50,000 less each year in federal income taxes than it would if the Obama plan were rejected and the tax cuts expired. _ The rich would pay 36 percent or more of their income in taxes under Obama’s plan. Wrong. A rich family would pay 36 percent – and 39.6 percent – only on taxable income above $232,000. The family would continue to benefit from the other four brackets established earlier this decade – 10 percent, 15 percent, 25 percent and 28 percent – on taxable income below $232,000. A family with taxable income of $350,000 would pay a higher rate on $118,000. The family would pay $42,480 in taxes on that amount, or $3,540 more than it pays now. Of course, for the really rich, the two higher brackets would take a bigger bite. A family making $2 million would pay about $100,000 more in taxes under Obama’s plan, according to the Tax Policy Center. _ The tax debate is all about income tax rates. Wrong. For all the attention given to higher taxes on earned income if current rates expire, the big hit to some families will come from taxes on capital gains and dividends. The government now takes 15 percent of both. If the Bush cuts aren’t renewed, the tax on long-term gains would rise to 20 percent. And the rate on dividends would shift to your income tax rate, or a maximum 39.6 percent. Under Obama’s plan, the tax on dividends would rise to 20 percent for everyone. If Congress doesn’t act to stop taxes from reverting to their pre-2001 levels, new limits would be placed on deductions and exemptions, too. And a $1,000 child credit would be halved.

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TV Sales: Sharp Holiday Price Drops Seen For Flat-Panel TVs

November 26, 2010

SEATTLE — If you’re in the market for a new flat-panel TV, it’s a good time to buy. TV prices usually drop from year to year, and the decline will be sharp this season thanks to a supply glut. Consumers have been holding out all year for better deals, leaving lots of unsold televisions on the shelves. Prices for high-definition LCD TVs will fall more than twice as fast as they have so far this year as manufacturers and retailers clear out inventory, analysts predict. New sets will also be cheaper because TV makers have been getting great deals on the most expensive parts, the glass LCD panels. However, DisplaySearch analyst Paul Gagnon expects prices for those components to level off early next year, so discounts won’t be this steep again until the holidays next year, or even later. For the consumer, that means that if you pull the trigger on a new set in the next few months, you probably won’t be kicking yourself next year for not waiting a little longer. The law of supply and demand is at work here: _ A TV-buying spree in late 2009 led to component shortages, which kept prices high in early 2010. That discouraged consumers. _ Makers of LCD panels invested profits from last year’s buying spree in more manufacturing capacity. Thinking 2010 would be as strong as 2009, they flooded the market. But the economy didn’t improve as expected. _ As a result, there’s an oversupply of panels, and prices started dropping over the summer. That means cheaper sets should be making their way to stores now. Already, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. has slashed prices for some older models. Among the deals: a 32-inch Vizio set that went to $298 from $348. Amazon.com Inc. and Best Buy Co. are starting to advertise deals, too. Some of the best deals this season will be on 32-inch LCD TVs, the most popular size. They will sell for rock-bottom rates of $300 or less, compared with about $400 last year. That’s because manufacturers are selling raw panels of that size for only slightly more than the cost of making them – $160 to $170 each, far less than the $210 to $220 they fetched earlier this year. Prices for 40-inch and 42-inch sets will drop about 20 percent, approaching $500, said Gagnon, the DisplaySearch analyst. Deep price cuts also are coming for higher-end models, including LCD TVs with LED backlights, which use less energy than regular sets and can be thinner or provide improved picture quality. Manufacturers have increased production capacity for parts specific to LED sets; that will drive down prices for components and, ultimately, the TVs themselves. Overall, good deals will be 15 percent to 20 percent lower than holiday 2009 prices for regular LCD TVs. The price drop had been slimmer at 7 percent earlier this year, Gagnon says, and the decline should return to the single digits by spring. Of course, the longer a buyer waits, the lower the prices go. But that has to be weighed against the value of having a new TV. If a 32-inch set turns out to be $20 cheaper next summer, the buyer could have gotten six months of better TV for $20. “In this industry you always know that in the future, you will buy new technology at a lower price. That’s not the point,” said Sweta Dash, an analyst at iSuppli Corp. “Especially this holiday, the price you will see is very good.” ___ AP Retail Writer Mae Anderson in New York contributed to this report.

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Five Ways New Technologies Are Changing Stores And Shopping

November 17, 2010

At last year’s annual WWD Apparel & Retail CEO Summit, the talk was all about recession and inventory control. But at this year’s gathering in New York, the assembled execs buzzed about technology. Now that retailers seem to be moving out of crisis mode, they’re back to investing in new bells and whistles for their stores and websites.

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Busy Week Ahead, As Retail, manufacturing, Housing, and Inflation Data Await Investors

November 14, 2010

Busy Week Ahead, As Retail, manufacturing, Housing, and Inflation Data Await Investors

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Transwestern, Page Partners Form Retail Mgmt. Joint Venture

November 9, 2010

Transwestern formed a strategic partnership with Page Partners to establish Transwestern Page Retail Management LLC, a management company that focuses on institutional quality retail projects and expanding retail leasing opportunities in Houston. The…

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Transwestern, Page Partners Form Retail Mgmt. Joint Venture

November 9, 2010

Transwestern formed a strategic partnership with Page Partners to establish Transwestern Page Retail Management LLC, a management company that focuses on institutional quality retail projects and expanding retail leasing opportunities in Houston. The…

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Brett King: How to create a sexy bank

November 3, 2010

Getting to the bank of tomorrow seems daunting. For banks that are entrenched in physical elements such as branch distribution networks, long-held conventions around paper-led compliance procedures, embedded silos and P&L (that are more likely to collapse completely than change) – how can a change to a better bank be navigated? How are you going to issue credit cards when there is no plastic? What will checking accounts be called when you don’t issue check books anymore? The challenges facing the banking sector today are extreme… Gaming and Silos that frustrate Banking This problem of change is amplified by the tendency towards internal gaming in the institution.  As banks we compete department by department for precious budget dollars each year. We compete across product for customer, with no tangible connection between a customer who comes as a credit card account holder to a customer who has a mortgage with the exception of the brand. In this environment, how do we develop a culture of innovation, of unyielding focus on customer excellence? Embedded silos and this type of internal gaming frustrates customer innovation and improvements in the customer experience. We fight annually to retain our silo’s budget for the coming year, without a greater goal considered around whether or not those budgets are actually accomplishing what we need for the customer. We have poor metrics that reinforce existing paradigms. We lack the ability to measure customer behavior and realistically assess how customers are working with us, thus as an industry we largely ignore the obvious massive changes around mobile, social media and Internet adoption. Basically, forget the concept of any spontaneous change in organization strategy that creates an innovative bank, one that intuitively gets the customer behavioral shift – this is going to be very, very hard work. Don’t bet the farm The mantra of senior executives looking at social media, mobile banking and payments, next generation Internet banking, augmented reality or geo-location, and other such technology initiatives reminds us of the classic Jerry McGuire call to “Show Me The Money” ! ROI is a massive focus, but the problem with living in a rapid adoption environment like we do today, is that if you wait to see how business models develop 2-3 years down the track to prove there is ROI, you are already going to be 4 years behind the competition. So how do you innovate when you can’t demonstrate short-term ROI, but you know that you MUST be experimenting with different approaches? How do you foster a culture of break out strategies or approaches when existing silos and gaming leave you with minimal budget to try something new? The trick is that you have to be ready to play with new ideas and test new approaches cheaper, faster and better than the traditional IT or channel deployment approaches of yester years. Your bank has to learn to prototype. Playing with BANK 2.0 models Although as a competency interaction design, usability, behavioral economics, prototyping and other such elements have been around for a couple of decades, the banking sector has largely remained immune from this type of thinking. Predominantly we’ve let bank process, policy, compliance and regulations define how we behave as a bank, and customers have had to yield to this environment. As Facebook credits, PayPal, NFC enabled iPhones and other such innovations continue to ‘bite’ we realize that as an industry we’re going to have to redesign customer journeys and improve engagement. Experimentation is a great model to help us get to where we need to go. IDEO recently attacked the redesign of the humble ATM with BBVA. The project took almost 2 years to get from prototyping to finished product, but in bank terms, this is warp speed. The traditional design process would not have produced the same outcome as what you see is the end result, which is truly a revolution in ATM design. Check out the video that documents the project and the prototyping and the design process complete with vital “human” input. The Future of Self-Service Banking from IDEO on Vimeo . Immersion as an observation technique Experiential immersion and behavioral observation studies are increasingly powerful ways to understand how customers respond to prototype environments. Recently I visited NAB in Australia where I met with Mark Appleford’s team who have built an Immersion and Design Centre for the purpose of testing their NextGen approaches to engagement banking. The Immersion and Design Centre allows for rapid configuration of physical spaces and interaction, without having to actually build a physical retail environment. A large video screen and configurable room enables NAB to create a simulated environment complete with visual feedback, portable signage, ambient sounds, mock-up screens and interfaces (like a cardboard box and touch screen that doubles as an ATM). In the images below you can see a mock-up of a bank shop environment complete with the video wall configured to show shoppers milling in the retail space, and you’ll see a NAB staffer sitting behind an ATM mock-up feeding mock currency through a slot to customers in a test of an ATM design iteration. A retail shopping environment projected on the rear wall of the immersion space The staffer here is manually feeding notes to customers through the ATM mock-up Fail often, fail early, save big bucks… The objective in building the prototype bank is to fail often, re-iterate and get the design of the customer interaction right, while it doesn’t cost you too much to change. If you’re already at User Acceptance Testing and you find a major customer hiccup, the cost of re-architecting the solution is prohibitive – so bad designs often go live just because they are too costly to change when testing reveals problems at the user-end of the journey. If you are going to be a really innovative bank, you have to learn to experiment with different models of engagement in a cheap, but productive manner. Start thinking of ways to prototype the future of your bank.

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European Stocks Closed Lower as Retail and Utilities Sectors Lead Decline

November 3, 2010

European Stocks Closed Lower as Retail and Utilities Sectors Lead Decline

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European Stocks Closed Lower as Retail and Utilities Sectors Lead Decline

November 3, 2010

European Stocks Closed Lower as Retail and Utilities Sectors Lead Decline

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Huntsberger, Bennett Join Security Benefit to Continue Growth, Focus in IMO Market Space

November 1, 2010

TOPEKA, KS–(Marketwire – November 1, 2010) –  Security Benefit is pleased to announce the recent hiring of Paul Huntsberger and Lee Bennett, who both have joined the Retail Markets Team and will be responsible for business development, relationship management and oversight of sales serving as Field Vice Presidents initially focused on the independent marketing organization (IMO) distribution market place.

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Anthony Tjan: The Fallacy of Financial Metrics

October 27, 2010

In both entrepreneurial and larger companies, we too often spend time focusing on the desired financial performance target, rather than the inputs that drive those numbers. Because boards, investors and management demand an objective way to measure performance, we often go right to the result without focusing on what caused those results. Financial performance is a result, a by-product, a consequence of something else. The financial “numbers” ultimately represent the scorecard we care about, but they do not help us understand how to score. When we ask management teams what are the most important drivers (or what we call operating metrics) of their financial results, I usually see one of two reactions: a) a dog in front of the television blank stare or b) a further breakdown of financial results: “sales on the West Coast drove the results.” When pressed further, we may get even further sales breakdowns which tell us little. As my partner, Dick Harrington, says, “We end up slicing baloney with a scalpel” and are talking too much about the “what” without getting the “why.” Operating metrics are the inputs that correlate or drive the desired results of a business. If you focus on the inputs, you need to worry less about the financial outputs. Examples of inputs include customer convenience, product quality, customer retention, or customer referral rate. Let me provide a couple of concrete examples. In many of our retail or restaurant investments, we espouse a value proposition of convenience. The more convenient we can make the experience, the happier the customer will be, and the more likely we will have customer repeat and referral, meaning not just higher revenues but higher quality of revenues. How does convenience translate into a measurable operating metric? As a proxy for convenience we measure metrics such as turn-away rates and wait times for service. That is, when a prospective patron walks in or makes a call for a reservation how often do we turn them away because we are full or short-staffed? We want that turn-away number as low as possible to reinforce convenience. If we detect a repeat issue we can see how to solve it, perhaps through improved reservations systems or increased staffing. Other metrics we might measure include weekly cleanliness scores, customer loyalty, and periodic customer satisfaction reviews. Of course we will look at these operating metrics alongside the financial and more quantitative results, but again–the point is to uncover the correlation between operating drivers and financial outcomes. Businesses need to focus on the 3-5 metrics that represent the most important drivers of value creation. It helps align an organization towards doing the right thing in a repeatable and scalable manner. When you just ask a team to chase results on a plan, you may never be sure what drove that result even if you are successful. There is a difference between having a good year of numbers and a sustainable business model that allows for more predictable year-over-year results. From a managerial tool perspective, a weekly or monthly dashboard that highlights not just the financial results, but also the operating metrics is smarter and more actionable. A dashboard with operating metrics serves effectively as an exception-based report where you look for deviations from the norm of operating metric levels and then consider whether the issue is systemic or one-off. It is true that people behave based on what they are measured by. Here are some guidelines on setting a culture driven by operating metrics and measuring your team on the right stuff: 1. Ensure management understands the difference between operating metrics and financial metrics – operating inputs versus financial ratios. The latter is for number-crunching analysts to focus on, the former is for managers and it is what will make the latter automatic. 2. Clearly communicate across the organization a small number of the most important operating metrics. It takes some thought to filter through the many possible inputs / operating metrics, but pick only the 3-5 that have the highest correlation to the desired financial goals. 3. Regularly review an operating metric dashboard, but focus on exceptions. You’ll be able to scan the health of your business very quickly. In an earlier blog, I interviewed superstar Oprah doctor and cardiac surgeon Mehmet Oz, and discussed the vitals for good personal health. Indeed, an excellent analogy is that operating metrics should represent the blood pressure and cholesterol levels of a company. Focus on the right ones, regularly measure them, and if they are out of whack, do something before your company has a heart attack. This article first appeared on Harvard Business Publishing on June 8, 2009.

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Brett King: The death of retail banking is here

October 27, 2010

The concept that banking is necessary, but banks are not has often been debated. The question of whether technology advances and new business model results in disintermediation is often dismissed as hype. While the Internet is undoubtedly the most significant technological advanced of the modern age, most retail bankers would argue that this only produced an incremental change in banking with yet another channel to access the existing bank infrastructure. However, that’s only partially accurate as an assessment. If you look at the broader world, there are actually tons of new businesses eating away at the retail banking client experience: Independent Financial Advisors While banks proclaim platform, global experience, asset management capability, etc the fact is that the advisory space is not owned solely by banks. In fact, if you really want a dedicated Relationship Manager who is going to not just sell you a product you really only have two choices – IFA or Private Bank. The mass affluent HNWI space just doesn’t deliver… Contactless Mass Transit Payments Octopus in Hong Kong, Oyster in the United Kingdom, EZLink in Singapore and other such stored value smart cards are actually debit cards. Octopus has a limited banking license in Hong Kong for the purpose of deposit-taking, but let’s not kid about here – all of these are acting like banks, but aren’t banks. As banks we can justify the fact that these are minimal impact and argue that ultimately the payments come from the banks to “recharge” these cards, but the fact is we’re not in the mix. Mobile Payments In some ways the big hit of SIBOS this year has been mobile payments arriving on the scene. The only problem with this is that M-PESA launched in Kenya in 2006 and now ‘owns’ between 5-10% of Kenya’s GDP, GCASH launched in Philippines in October 2004 and now has 28,000 outlets supporting their services across the country. There are other examples too – Nokia is set to dominate the mobile payments space in India as they turn their stores into cash-in/cash-out points across the sub-continent. Where are the banks? Some banks are now offering withdrawal through ATM networks for mobile cash users, but the fact is banks are still arguing about interoperability, platform, security and alliances to be productive – so again banks are missing out. Peer-to-Peer lending Zopa now represents close to 1.5% of the UK lending market with monthly lending of GBP 10-15m. With a reported NPL of 0.7% they are also the industry leader in the UK for credit management. Bankers would find this counterintuitive – how can a non-bank have a better performing loan book than a bank? The answer is better value to the consumer, and social lending as the foundation. Prosper, Lending Club and others are also taking their fair share of the lending markets in places like the US. Average loan sizes for Lending Club and Zopa are not microfinance size either, being around US$2-3k. This is direct competition for the retail banking sector. Peer-to-Peer and alternative Payments networks PayPal is clearly the leader in online payments today, and while PayPal utilizes existing card networks and payments infrastructure, the fact is that in the area of capturing transactional revenue and in respect to ownership of consumer mindshare, PayPal reigns supreme. On eBay, for example, between 50-75% of payments are processed via PayPal. Banks like HSBC are proud of the fact that they process much of the back-end payments for PayPal – but surely being in the front-end is the sweet spot here. Merchant onboarding Square, from Jack Dorsey (Twitter founder), has recently gone live. All you need is an existing bank account and an Android or iPhone and you can start accepting credit card payments. Currently Square is deployed in the USA where there are more than 20 million small business owners who don’t have a merchant account with a bank. The merchant on-boarding process is just too complex for most businesses, and Square recognized that. What would you rather do? Download an App and sign up for Square, or negotiate the 150 pages of different legal contracts and forms from your bank to set up a merchant account? Banks don’t offer value here – in fact, the opposite. Disintermediation abounds and is speeding up This morning at SIBOS we just heard Karen Fawcett of Standard Chartered  proclaim “Transaction banking is now front and centre. Flow businesses that we support are the lifeblood of commerce.” The problem is this view of the world. Bankers are simply used to owning the pipes, the network, the wires and perceiving that their exclusivity on ‘banking’, their ‘lock on customers’ comes from having a banking license. Clearly, however, disintermediation of the retail front-end of banks is rife. Banks are becoming wholesalers, networks and product manufacturers, but clearly with the lack of innovative capability, the rapidly growing gap between customer behavior and retail banks as poor service companies, the question of whether we need banks has been answered… We don’t need retail banks – we do need the back-end networks that process payments, we need organizations that are prepared to take on the risk of lending (social lending is unlikely to scale up to mortgage level), and we need mechanisms that give us access to trading systems and markets. But retail banks, their physical distribution real-estate, their products and services are fast becoming redundant. Sure, it will take a couple of decades, but in many ways it’s already too late. The ‘things’ that were uniquely “banking” 20 years ago, today have all been replicated by a transport department, an internet start-up, a social network and a telecommunications company. Banking at the front-end is no longer unique, it’s a commodity. When such interactions become commoditized, then the concept banks leverage of paying for the privilege of banking make them easy targets for disintermediation.

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Lita Smith-Mines: The Signs, They Are A-Fadin’

October 26, 2010

Driving along a large retail road the other evening, I wondered where the florist on a very busy corner went. Moreover, what the heck was ORIS, which the display sign proclaimed was sold there instead? Nearby there was an ELI and a KE SHOP and a CE BA. Across the street was a JEWE and a MAR AR STUD. Further down I spied TY SUPPLIES, ACY and SSAGES. Had all the local businesses failed, and what were these strange stores peddling? Now that I was focusing, I saw that more than a few of the retail establishments bearing the name of my home town of Commack now had only the letters ACK or MMA or COMM lit up across the front of their store. It dawned on me that I didn’t happen to drive down the turnpike on the day a bulb or two burned atop one store or another. What I was seeing was the combined neglect of many retailers (or landlords), who individually may have thought better of shelling out the money it took to restore the B and the A and the G over the bagel store or to pay the electric bill for a lighted logo display during this depressing recession. Maybe there were bigger priorities than reenergizing the CHIN above the store that now proclaimed it sold ESE FOOD. If the ingredients couldn’t be bought and the cooks paid, the restaurant would surely go under. From the looks of it, perhaps the store that caters to “big & tall” men needed to worry about paying for the merchandise on its shelves. In that case, it might be understandable why they delayed fixing the G & TALL ME sign. Landlords with fewer tenants could certainly plot out a way to string along the last few renters by postponing the maintenance on a shopping center’s nighttime signage. As an observer merely driving by store after store after store adorned with strange arrangements of letters, I cannot know how much thought each retailer or property owner puts into the lighted logos. It is logical to suppose that they spend their days and nights worrying about paying for inventory, meeting payroll, and otherwise finding the cash to keep their doors open. However, I do know that the local mom & pop, bricks & mortar establishments are having a hell of a time surviving this economic climate. Thus, the lack of illumination at such stores can’t bode well for their continued existence. How will things improve for the pizza store that will bring the food to me if the glow above their doorframe shouts WE DELIV? Will anyone driving along at night know that a local jeweler guarantees to pay the best price for gold if all they see is W PAY TOP $$ FO? If a hungry driver is looking on both sides of the street for an enticing place to stop, I’m willing to bet that the eatery offering BUG & FRI is probably not going to be very tempting.

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EUR/USD: Trading the U.S. Advance Retail Sales Report

October 14, 2010

EUR/USD: Trading the U.S. Advance Retail Sales Report

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UK Retail Sales Soft on Weak Consumer Confidence in September, Says BRC

October 12, 2010

UK Retail Sales Soft on Weak Consumer Confidence in September, Says BRC

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David Pohl: "The End of Coffee As We Know It"

October 5, 2010

Coffee pundits are fretting about a coffee “shortage”, which has led to a 35% price spike over the past four months on the NY ICE Coffee Futures Exchange. We’re hearing dire predictions of doom and gloom, an “end to coffee as we know it.” Leave it to mainstream media and hedge funds to create a mountain out of a molehill. Yet as a green coffee buyer who scours the world over for the best boutique coffee, works with trusted importers and growers to bring it to my doorstep, roasts it with artisan sensibility and packages it for the retail and wholesale coffee market, I am inundated with high quality coffee — more than I know what to do with. The truth is that while there are legitimate concerns about supply, from where I sit the future of coffee has never looked so good. My reason for optimism is simple: we are in a renaissance that is transforming coffee from a cheap commodity to a much more sophisticated beverage. I work for Equator Coffees & Teas in San Rafael CA, and I seek the best, most exotic coffees in the world. I evaluate coffees from Africa, Asia and Latin America every day, and travel to coffee farms several times a year. What I find absolutely striking is that throughout the industry quality is up, even if supply isn’t. So, is the shortage such a bad thing? Back in 2002 when I started in the industry, green coffee prices were at historic lows. The market price was $.40/pound, while the minimum cost of production was twice that. Farmers were going broke daily, abandoning their farms in search of work in the cities or abroad. It was devastating. Flash forward to 2010: green coffee prices are up around $1.90 and everyone is alarmed – except for the farmers who understandably love the price. There are a number of reasons for the price spike: smaller than expected harvests in Brazil, Colombia and Vietnam; farms that went broke during the crisis earlier in the century are still not at peak production (it takes 3-5 years for a coffee plant to produce); increases in global demand are outstripping increases in supply; and a weak global economy means that hedge funds are pouring money into commodities like coffee hoping for short-term returns. I don’t feel comfortable with the bubble risk posed by institutional investors, but all of the other reasons for the increase are legitimate and stem from the fact that people are drinking more coffee — arguably a good thing. What I really find encouraging about the trend that has emerged in the wake of the coffee price meltdown eight years ago, especially as we head into another “crisis”, is that consumers are willing to pay more for quality and sustainability. And farmers, keen to avoid another meltdown, have learned that they are better off producing higher quality coffee in a sustainable manner, not just more coffee. 20 years ago practically the only measure of a farm’s success was its yield — now quality is the number one issue. Today coffee growers are approaching their work, and are viewed by consumers, as artisans rather than struggling farmers at the bottom of the food chain. They are taking control of the situation and delivering coffee consumers are willing to pay a premium for. More farmers are focusing on the quality of their harvests, refining their growing techniques, installing hi-tech, efficient processing equipment and doing more to promote themselves by entering their coffees in competitions and reaching out to roasters via social media (most recently, a Salvadoran grower has communicated with us on Facebook). This positive development stands at odds with the “crisis” we are told is destroying the coffee industry. Consider what has happened to coffee in Panama over the last few years. It has gone from an undervalued origin to one of the most prized. I spend a couple of months each year on Equator’s own coffee farm, Finca Sofia. Since starting the farm from scratch three years ago we have planted 25,000 “Geisha” variety coffee trees, which we tend with the attention of a new mother. Geisha, an heirloom variety from Africa, took the world by storm a few years ago, sweeping every tasting competition it entered. Coffee judges could not believe it was grown in Panama – known primarily for clean, mild coffees, not wild, exotic ones. They were convinced it was from the crown-jewel of the coffee world, Ethiopia. Since then, green, unroasted Geisha grown in Panama has been selling at astronomical prices ranging from $25-170/pound. By first shattering taste expectations, this coffee went on to shatter price expectations. This had a trickle-down effect — the best coffees from many other origins now sell for prices exponentially higher than the commodity price. Rarely do coffees sell for over $100, but it is quite common to see coffees from El Salvador, Guatemala, Ethiopia, Colombia and Peru sell for $10-40. This is the exciting future of the coffee industry as I see it. So while the coming “shortage” will quite possibly have an impact on the world of coffee, and consumers will have to pay more for their coffee, they will also likely be treated to better quality coffee. Farmers will be rewarded for investments in quality and sustainability. If this is the “end of coffee as we know it”, good riddance. The renaissance already underway suggests that the best is yet to come. In future posts I will reflect upon the changing world of coffee.

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Al Norman: Is It Wal-Mart, Or Small-Mart?

September 21, 2010

Smaller Stores Just A Necessary Adjustment By Al Norman The Wal-Mart corporation is like the guy who buys a huge SUV and drives it proudly into his driveway—only to find that the damn thing won’t fit into his garage. Instead of trying to build a new garage, he goes back to the dealership to trade in his SUV for a compact model. This week the media was driving stories about Wal-Mart’s “aggressive push” towards smaller stores that would fit into tight urban markets that don’t have 30 acre parcels of land lying around anymore. The traditional 185,000 square foot superstore just won’t squeeze into that urban garage. For Wal-Mart, this is a back to the future script. Sam Walton wrote proudly of his 35,000 square foot store in Springdale, Arkansas, which opened in 1964 and “quickly became our number one store in sales.” When David Glass, former Wal-Mart CEO, first went to visit a Wal-Mart in Harrison, Arkansas, the store he visited was 12,000 square feet. If Wal-Mart had stayed with 35,000 square foot stores, they would not have become the most reviled retailer in America today. Walton wrote years later, “It turned out that the first big lesson we learned was that there was much, much more business out there in small-town America than anybody, including me, had ever dreamed of.” But Walton himself was also afraid of getting too big. He once wrote: “Being big also poses dangers. It has ruined many a fine company–including some giant retailers—who started out strong and got bloated or out of touch or were slow to react to the needs of their customers.” But Walton’s small town dream is over. Same store sales are on the skids, domestic sales in the U.S. are harder and harder to mine, and the giant retailer is betting its dividend on foreign markets like China and India. In the U.S., the urban market is the new frontier for Wal-Mart, and that means shifting the paradigm from big stores in small towns, to small stores in big towns, like Chicago, Manhattan, and San Francisco. Next month Wal-Mart is going to spell out its small plans at its annual retail analyst’s meeting at the company’s headquarters in Bentonville. The store size being bandied about is a 20,000 square foot grocery store—about half the size of Wal-Mart’s Neighborhood Markets, of which there were only 181 units at the start of the corporation’s 2011 fiscal year. Hardly a successful roll out. But small boxes are not a new story. Last year at this time, Eduardo Castro-Wright, who was then Wal-Mart’s Vice Chairman of American stores, told the media, “The writing is on the wall, we are going to smaller stores.” Six years ago, Forbes carried a story about Wal-Mart’s 99,000 square foot superstore prototype, called the “Urban 99″ store. The article quoted Merrill Lynch as projecting that by 2013, 90% of Wal-Mart’s 200 new supercenters would be some variation of that Urban 99 model. Of course Merrill Lynch had no way of forecasting the coming recession, and the sharp drop in new store growth in American Wal-Mart units. In 2008, a real estate planner at Wal-Mart admitted, “We can generate as much sales, as much profit, from a smaller” store. And CFO Tom Schoewe told the retail analyst conference two years ago that Wal-Mart would be “migrating to a smaller footprint for the stores that we’re adding, more efficient, smaller stores.” So this latest media stir about 15,000 square foot “Marketside” grocery stores is not new news—but its still good news for Wal-Mart opponents. Wal-Mart will find much less opposition to 15,000 square foot stores than to 150,000 square foot stores, and the reasons are self-evident: residents want Wal-Mart to build outside of the box—to scale down their over-sized superstores. In urban areas, Wal-Mart has no choice: they have to scale down or sit it out. But the fight over scale is far from over. There are currently several dozen Wal-Mart big box battles raging across the country–all of them provoked by the large scale of stores being proposed. Despite what you are reading this week about smaller footprints—Wal-Mart is still shutting down 135,000 square foot stores to open up 200,000 square foot superstores. This suburban/rural strategy has not been abandoned. My own town of Greenfield, Massachusetts is now battling a Wal-Mart, having defeated them once 17 years ago. The 2010 version of Wal-Mart in Greenfield began at 160,000 square feet. After three years of spinning wheels, the project has been reduced to 135,000 square feet. But residents want to trim it down to 80,000 square feet—which is still nearly one and a half times bigger than a football field. Roughly 20 miles away, Wal-Mart is building a 200,000+ square foot store in the tiny town of Hinsdale, New Hampshire. It’s leaving a 100,000 square foot dead store just minutes away. Wal-Mart’s unsustainable policy of abandoning stores to build larger ones across the street has led to one of the most wasteful cast-off policies of any company in American retailing. The ‘dark stores’ that Wal-Mart has left—like a snake crawls out of its skin—are always orphaned because the company wanted bigger footprints. The scale-mania at Wal-Mart rages on. The truth is that the Small Mart movement is simply the latest strategy for busting into the urban markets that will not accept the classic over-the-top superstore. In rural America, Wal-Mart is still pursing a Big Mart strategy, proposing stores in the 160,000 to 203,000 square foot range. Mercifully, the recession has kicked a big hole in Wal-Mart’s rural growth plans—so the urban areas are now the focus of attention. Big stores or small, Wal-Mart remains one of the most profligate corporations in history, blanketing hundreds of thousands of acres with asphalt and concrete, and then leaving their dead stores for Wal-Mart Realty to sell. Public officials in urban markets should not be fooled by Wal-Mart’s “smaller is beautiful” change of heart. Wal-Mart will always be big at heart, and the damage it does to the local economy is anything but ‘small.’ Wal-Mart has become the bloated, out of touch company that dogged the dreams of Sam Walton. Al Norman is the founder of sprawl-busters.com, and the author of “The Case Against Wal-Mart. The Wall Street Journal called him a ‘one man anti-Wal-Mart cottage industry.”

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Al Norman: Is It Wal-Mart, Or Small-Mart?

September 21, 2010

Smaller Stores Just A Necessary Adjustment By Al Norman The Wal-Mart corporation is like the guy who buys a huge SUV and drives it proudly into his driveway—only to find that the damn thing won’t fit into his garage. Instead of trying to build a new garage, he goes back to the dealership to trade in his SUV for a compact model. This week the media was driving stories about Wal-Mart’s “aggressive push” towards smaller stores that would fit into tight urban markets that don’t have 30 acre parcels of land lying around anymore. The traditional 185,000 square foot superstore just won’t squeeze into that urban garage. For Wal-Mart, this is a back to the future script. Sam Walton wrote proudly of his 35,000 square foot store in Springdale, Arkansas, which opened in 1964 and “quickly became our number one store in sales.” When David Glass, former Wal-Mart CEO, first went to visit a Wal-Mart in Harrison, Arkansas, the store he visited was 12,000 square feet. If Wal-Mart had stayed with 35,000 square foot stores, they would not have become the most reviled retailer in America today. Walton wrote years later, “It turned out that the first big lesson we learned was that there was much, much more business out there in small-town America than anybody, including me, had ever dreamed of.” But Walton himself was also afraid of getting too big. He once wrote: “Being big also poses dangers. It has ruined many a fine company–including some giant retailers—who started out strong and got bloated or out of touch or were slow to react to the needs of their customers.” But Walton’s small town dream is over. Same store sales are on the skids, domestic sales in the U.S. are harder and harder to mine, and the giant retailer is betting its dividend on foreign markets like China and India. In the U.S., the urban market is the new frontier for Wal-Mart, and that means shifting the paradigm from big stores in small towns, to small stores in big towns, like Chicago, Manhattan, and San Francisco. Next month Wal-Mart is going to spell out its small plans at its annual retail analyst’s meeting at the company’s headquarters in Bentonville. The store size being bandied about is a 20,000 square foot grocery store—about half the size of Wal-Mart’s Neighborhood Markets, of which there were only 181 units at the start of the corporation’s 2011 fiscal year. Hardly a successful roll out. But small boxes are not a new story. Last year at this time, Eduardo Castro-Wright, who was then Wal-Mart’s Vice Chairman of American stores, told the media, “The writing is on the wall, we are going to smaller stores.” Six years ago, Forbes carried a story about Wal-Mart’s 99,000 square foot superstore prototype, called the “Urban 99″ store. The article quoted Merrill Lynch as projecting that by 2013, 90% of Wal-Mart’s 200 new supercenters would be some variation of that Urban 99 model. Of course Merrill Lynch had no way of forecasting the coming recession, and the sharp drop in new store growth in American Wal-Mart units. In 2008, a real estate planner at Wal-Mart admitted, “We can generate as much sales, as much profit, from a smaller” store. And CFO Tom Schoewe told the retail analyst conference two years ago that Wal-Mart would be “migrating to a smaller footprint for the stores that we’re adding, more efficient, smaller stores.” So this latest media stir about 15,000 square foot “Marketside” grocery stores is not new news—but its still good news for Wal-Mart opponents. Wal-Mart will find much less opposition to 15,000 square foot stores than to 150,000 square foot stores, and the reasons are self-evident: residents want Wal-Mart to build outside of the box—to scale down their over-sized superstores. In urban areas, Wal-Mart has no choice: they have to scale down or sit it out. But the fight over scale is far from over. There are currently several dozen Wal-Mart big box battles raging across the country–all of them provoked by the large scale of stores being proposed. Despite what you are reading this week about smaller footprints—Wal-Mart is still shutting down 135,000 square foot stores to open up 200,000 square foot superstores. This suburban/rural strategy has not been abandoned. My own town of Greenfield, Massachusetts is now battling a Wal-Mart, having defeated them once 17 years ago. The 2010 version of Wal-Mart in Greenfield began at 160,000 square feet. After three years of spinning wheels, the project has been reduced to 135,000 square feet. But residents want to trim it down to 80,000 square feet—which is still nearly one and a half times bigger than a football field. Roughly 20 miles away, Wal-Mart is building a 200,000+ square foot store in the tiny town of Hinsdale, New Hampshire. It’s leaving a 100,000 square foot dead store just minutes away. Wal-Mart’s unsustainable policy of abandoning stores to build larger ones across the street has led to one of the most wasteful cast-off policies of any company in American retailing. The ‘dark stores’ that Wal-Mart has left—like a snake crawls out of its skin—are always orphaned because the company wanted bigger footprints. The scale-mania at Wal-Mart rages on. The truth is that the Small Mart movement is simply the latest strategy for busting into the urban markets that will not accept the classic over-the-top superstore. In rural America, Wal-Mart is still pursing a Big Mart strategy, proposing stores in the 160,000 to 203,000 square foot range. Mercifully, the recession has kicked a big hole in Wal-Mart’s rural growth plans—so the urban areas are now the focus of attention. Big stores or small, Wal-Mart remains one of the most profligate corporations in history, blanketing hundreds of thousands of acres with asphalt and concrete, and then leaving their dead stores for Wal-Mart Realty to sell. Public officials in urban markets should not be fooled by Wal-Mart’s “smaller is beautiful” change of heart. Wal-Mart will always be big at heart, and the damage it does to the local economy is anything but ‘small.’ Wal-Mart has become the bloated, out of touch company that dogged the dreams of Sam Walton. Al Norman is the founder of sprawl-busters.com, and the author of “The Case Against Wal-Mart. The Wall Street Journal called him a ‘one man anti-Wal-Mart cottage industry.”

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Christiana Wyly: Proof That Renewable Energy Is Alive, Well and Profitable!

September 21, 2010

Last week marked the beginning of a new chapter in the creation of America’s renewable energy future. In one of the nation’s most strategic clean economy deals to date, NRG Energy, Inc. announced the $350 million acquisition of Green Mountain Energy , the company founded by my father- Sam Wyly. “A permanent and fast-growing portion of the American population is seeking to live sustainably,” NRG President and Chief Executive Officer David Crane said in a statement. “Green Mountain understands that customer base and serves it better than any other retail energy provider.” At a time when doubts prevail about the ability of clean investments to deliver real returns, the sale of the nation’s leading competitive retail provider of cleaner energy and carbon offset solutions is a clear bellwether of the industry’s future. For every other green entrepreneur, it’s a hard proof point of the economic viability of renewable energy ventures. Geoffrey Orsak, dean of the Lyle School of Engineering at Southern Methodist University, was quoted in an article in the Dallas Morning News yesterday saying the acquisition shows that green companies have market worth. “This is a great sign that the green economy is not likely to be another dot-com fantasy. This is real stuff that consumers believe in.” For me, on a personal level, it’s an important step toward the realization of a childhood dream. The seeds of Green Mountain were planted one day back when I was in the fifth grade. I was taking an environmental ethics class and learning that the pink and grey skies over Los Angeles were neither pretty nor benign. I became afraid to breathe, and asked my father, despairingly, “Dad, what are you going to do about all this toxic waste being put into the air?” He was stunned by the question. My father is quoted in the Dallas Morning News saying: “Somewhere in the Bible, there’s the verse about out of the mouths of babes. The truth hit me like a hammer.” As a prolific entrepreneur with a history of busting up monopolies , my father wanted to see Americans have a choice when it came to buying electricity too. Few Americans realize that the largest producers of pollution globally are the power plants that electrify our homes. The beginning of the problem is that the average American has no idea how energy is produced, or how it flows into a grid and arrives at their outlets, or what environmental consequences they are incurring by flipping the switch. Secondly — in most of America — they have no power to choose an alternative such as wind or solar generated electricity. But if they could be educated, and then empowered with the gift of choice — the average American energy consumer could become the greatest weapon to reducing air pollution while creating a wave of demand for the clean energy infrastructure of the future, and in doing so create thousands of clean green jobs for Americans. My father figured that he would be the one to show us. And he would do it through the vehicle he knew best: entrepreneurship. So, when he learned about a small clean-energy supplier in Vermont that was for sale, he decided to pursue it. Today more than 300,000 Green Mountain Energy customers, mostly in Texas, and some in Oregon and New York, pay a premium equal to the cost of a fancy cup of Starbucks coffee every month to purchase electricity produced from pure wind, or a price-competitive mixed blend of renewables. The company, which also sells carbon offsets, is growing at 27% a year. The chairman of a competing energy company described Green Mountain as having “tremendous, tremendous customer loyalty.” All the light switches in those customers’ 300,000 households have made a real difference. Since it was founded, Green Mountain customers have kept more than 11.3 billion pounds of carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere so far. That’s equivalent to taking 52 million cars off the road for a week, or 473 million households turning off their lights for a week, or planting 478 million trees. The company has facilitated the creation of more than 40 wind and solar farms. To that end, it has helped to create wealth for many of the clean energy pioneers who built them. The NRG acquisition will enable Green Mountain to take its clean energy mission national. “We look at this green energy space, served and almost created by Green Mountain,” NRG’s Crane told the Dallas Morning News, and “it’s still a very small part of the market, so it has a long way to grow.” Crane also said he anticipates that either Congress or the Environmental Protection Agency will put a price on carbon in a matter of years. The Green Mountain acquisition is helping to prepare NRG for that day. “The fact that a price is coming on carbon is still a fundamental premise of this company,” Crane told The News. I couldn’t agree with him more and applaud him and other forward thinking executives that are working to advocate for a price on carbon — which I believe will revolutionize the world we live in — and enable us to profitably clean up our atmosphere. The company my father started has proven that there is consumer demand — and even enthusiasm — for purchasing renewable energy. There should be. And not just for the altruistic goal of saving the planet, but because clean energy is where the real money will be made in the next generation. Educate people, give them a choice, and we will create a clean economy for all of us — together. Stick around. It’s going to be good clean fun.

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The Most (And Least) Economically Stressed Counties In The U.S. (PHOTOS)

September 8, 2010

The West Coast is the epicenter of economic stress in America and the struggling economy may be inflicting the least damage in the Midwest, according to a new ranking by the Associated Press. Across America, economic stress fell month to month in July in about 54 percent of the nation’s 3,141 counties, and in 24 of the 50 states , the AP’s monthly Economic Stress Index shows. But the average county’s “stress score” in July remains unchanged from the previous month. About 42 percent of counties were found to be economically distressed, which was also unchanged from June. “Stress eased in counties whose work forces lean toward areas like agriculture, mining, wholesale trade and finance. By contrast, counties with many employees in the retail and real estate industries suffered higher distress in July,” according to analysis by AP. Among the most stressed counties, concentrated in states like Nevada, California and Florida, county unemployment rates have soared as high as 30.3 percent, and foreclosure rates can exceed four times the national average. The AP’s index calculates a stress score for each county from 1 to 100 based on unemployment, foreclosure and bankruptcy rates. A county is considered stressed if its score exceeds 11 (the current national average is 10.5.) Below are the top five most economically stressed counties, and the five least economically stressed counties in America. (For the 20 most stressed and 20 least stressed counties click here and for an interactive map that shows statistics for all U.S. counties and states.)

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GreenMan Technologies Appoints New Board Member

September 7, 2010

CARLISLE, IA–(Marketwire – September 7, 2010) –  GreenMan Technologies, Inc. ( OTCBB : GMTI ), announced that Thomas Galvin has joined the Company’s Board of Directors, effective September 2, 2010. Mr. Galvin was the Co-Founder and Executive Vice President of SourceOne, a Boston-based provider of energy outsourcing solutions for mission critical facilities, established in 1999. SourceOne was sold to Veolia Energy North America in 2007. Prior to founding SourceOne, Mr. Galvin was the Director of Retail Service, Eastern United States for Pacificorp, an investor-owned utility and provider of wholesale and retail renewable energy products. Before that, he founded two environmental services consulting firms, Adams Environmental Management, Inc., which concentrated on tactical and technical environmental services and Hygienetics, Inc., an international environmental consulting firm.&nbsp

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Tom Doctoroff: Is China Serious About Major Economic Reform? Probably Not

September 6, 2010

Of late, many propaganda pieces in the Chinese press have appeared extolling the importance of innovation, value-creation and a fundamental rebalancing of China’s manufacturing-led economy to a consumer-driven one. On the ground, a big question remains whether the government truly believes its growth model has reached its peak. Infrastructure Investment. The key strategy continues to be urbanization which entails: a) massive infrastructure investment inland, b) upgrading non productive rural workers into higher-productivity manufacturing workers. The structure of the governments’ gargantuan 2008 stimulus package is consistent with this framework. Factories are being built on hinterland farmlands, as are transportation networks to ship raw and semi-finished goods between lower-tier cities and the coast. The Party likely believes China can, as a whole, maintain is low-cost labor pool for at least the next decade, hence its reasonably calm reaction to recent labor unrest at Foxconn in Guangdong province. As a result, mobilization of resources and scalification of markets remain core growth planks and this is inconsistent with any leap up value chains. That said, China model is appropriate for making an incremental crawl up the value ladder. And, here, China has been successful in industry after industry, ranging from green technology to autos. But no industry has had anything close to a paradigm shift in terms of setting global standards of innovation. A Consumer Economy? In terms of stimulating consumer demand, there has been precious little the government has done that would relieve epic savings anxiety of both the middle class and the urban mass market. This would involve, most critically, fundamental restructuring of health care. Le Keqiang, Hu Jintao’s heir apparent, is charged with leading the task force to address this need. But most observers are skeptical insurance pools are deep enough or inclusive enough to fund significant health care reform. So the effort is proceeding, and will proceed, in a piecemeal fashion. However, as a percentage of total economic activity, the consumer sector will increase, largely driven by industrialization of and growth in lower-tier markets. (This is the major story of the past couple years. Auto sales, for example, are exploding outside of Tier I cities. The same goes for luxury products.) Corporate Governance Hurdles. To generate more innovation in state-own enterprises, a key issue is corporate governance, or lack thereof. In China, shareholder rights are extremely weak and there is rarely (never?) an empowered board charged with ensuring that management maximize long-term shareholder value. Goals of maintaining Party control and responding to the market are in opposition. CEOs are judged in implementing the party line and competition is, at best, “managed,” orchestrated from above, within the corridors of Party power. Service Sector Stagnation. The service sector, and modernization of it, also remains a huge challenge. It is currently designed to respond to, again in a mobilized manner, the needs to the masses. (Ten years ago, who would have anticipated such growth of the retail arms of the Big Four banks?) But the emerging middle class, whose needs are more sophisticated and require a greater degree of personalization, have been ignored. Again, key service industries (health care, financial services, real estate, etc.) remain “strategic” industries — vital to the Party’s macro- management of the country — so significant reform is nowhere in sight. (The biggest star in retail banking innovation is China Merchant’s Bank, not one of the big boys.) Brittle Company Structures. Corporate structure is also a huge barrier for innovation. Large SOEs are burdened by: a) byzantine hierarchies that preclude a bottom-up flow of new ideas, b) imperial CEOs who issue ambiguous instructions to generate anxiety and construct rival power factions to ensure competition is horizontal, not vertical, c) minimal investment in R&D, and d) dominance of (short-term) sales relative to marketing (a balance of short-term sales and long-term equity generation) functions. I am not aware of any large local company that has made huge strides in instituting an empowered marketing function. However, our experience with COFCO, China’s largest food conglomerate, suggests it is at least trying nobly to impose a “framework” for innovation and brand development. Haier and large local appliance manufacturers remain stuck in the past. The local brands that have made the most progress moving beyond scale/huge market capitalization and towards value creation (Anta, Lining, dairy companies such as Meng Niu and Yili, fashion) are, relatively speaking, independent of the state. These are the companies fueling JWT’s growth amongst local clients. However, smaller private enterprises are increasingly starved for capital. Key question: when will banks begin lending based on objective assessment of return? Many doubt that day will arrive anytime soon. By the way, Chinese companies are, rightly, focused on the China market. They are pragmatic. Few brands really want to “take over the world.” Recent cases like Geely’s takeover of Volvo is vanity project, a misguided attempt to grab a part of the booming luxury car segment. Lenovo could only go global via a takeover of IMB’s international PC operations and results have been decidedly mixed. “International” Chinese brands will only succeed, for the foreseeable future, in emerging economies where the basic price-value equation of Mainland goods remains a genuine competitive advantage. Political Reform: Taboo. Underlying all of this is slow progress on the political reform front. Can the government instill significant intra-party checks and balances to institutionalize more efficient governance? (This is what party apparatchiks mean by “democracy.”) So far, this type of reform remains taboo, except in lofty think tank debates. Is the government wrong to go slow? Probably not. Despite having become the world’s second largest economy, China is still a poor country on a purchase power parity (PPP) basis. Vast expanses of the country require strong central government to continue the Middle Kingdom’s Great Urbanization Project. That said, even “Friends of China” are right to encourage the Party to begin the process of institutional-based reform, because the day when it becomes a necessity, rather than a theoretical “good,” will arrive sooner or later, perhaps unexpectedly.

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Joe Hansen: Restoring Pride and Fairness to American Jobs

September 5, 2010

If the past is prologue, what can we say about the future of American jobs this Labor Day? Rosy is not a term that comes to mind. Over the last 30 years we have seen workers’ wages remain essentially flat while worker productivity skyrocketed by 75 percent. The Economic Policy Institute refers to this phenomenon as a ” broad-based collapse of wage growth .” For three decades, American workers have been producing more, but taking home paychecks that don’t reflect their hard work. Consequently, we see the biggest pay gap in nearly a century. If this trend holds for another 30 years, a grim future awaits the next generation of American workers. But low-wage jobs don’t have to be our future, and a new national poll conducted by Lake Research for the United Food and Commercial Workers International Union (UFCW) shows that American voters want economic policies that address these inequities and seek to level the playing field for all Americans. Voters have a clear vision of what kind of economy they want. Voters understand the current economic situation is difficult, but they still believe that all jobs should pay a living wage, come with affordable, quality health care, and offer real retirement security. The poll, taken among 700 randomly-selected registered voters nationwide, shows: Eighty-seven percent of voters are very or somewhat concerned that America’s future jobs will be low wage and low benefit — including 65% who are very concerned Eighty-nine percent of voters agree that economic development should result in jobs with good wages and benefits that can support a family Eighty-four percent of voters agree that economic recovery means creating jobs with good benefits so people can afford to take care of their families, not low wage jobs with no benefits Eighty-four percent of voters favor requiring that government contracts go to companies that provide good paying jobs and benefits so that their employees don’t end up on welfare programs like Medicaid and food stamps At some point, we may see the restoration of high-paying manufacturing jobs, but in order to make jobs better for Americans now, we must look to the retail industry where immediate job growth will occur. A recent Department of Labor study confirms that the service sector will see the greatest job growth in the next decade. That means jobs for cashiers, clerks, and salespeople, among other service-sector positions. Unfortunately, Walmart provides the predominant model for retail jobs today. Companies like Walmart pay low wages and benefits, and provide mostly part-time jobs–practices that lower standards for all retail workers. These companies claim that retail jobs should be “starter jobs,” or “temporary jobs,” when in reality these jobs are the future of our economy, and already employ millions of Americans of all ages, educational levels, and economic backgrounds. The number one job in America, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is retail salesperson–a position held by some 4.2 million people as of May 2009. Most of the 1.3 million UFCW members work in the retail industry: at grocery stores, retail clothing stores, or other retail jobs. They know firsthand that union retail jobs can be stable, middle-class jobs–the kind that come with affordable, quality health care, wages that pay the bills, and real retirement security. But the vast majority of the growing retail workforce is non-union, making it more and more difficult for union members to raise wages and benefits throughout the industry. And the economy is only making things more difficult. As the New York Times noted recently : With the country focused on job growth and with unemployment continuing to hover above 9 percent, comparatively little attention has been paid to the quality of the jobs being created and what that might say about the opportunities available to workers when the recession finally settles. There are reasons for concern, however, even in the early stages of a tentative recovery that now appears to be barely wheezing along. For years, long before the recession began, job growth had become increasingly polarized in this country. High-paid occupations that require significant amounts of education and training grew rapidly alongside low-wage, service-type jobs that do not, according to David Autor, a labor economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology …The recession appears to have magnified that trend… We can’t let this trend continue. It’s up to all of us, workers, shoppers, community members, and political leaders, to ensure that economic policies provide the opportunity to make all retail jobs good, career jobs. According to the Lake poll, a majority of voters believe job growth must be good job growth. In a number of polls Lake Research has found that a key economic frame for Americans is to have good-paying job no matter what the sector. To make that happen we must actively engage in the policy decisions that guide economic growth and job creation, and we must correct the current wage gap so that as worker productivity increases paychecks also increase. The future of work, and the future of America, is in our hands. Clearly, American voters want and expect good jobs — the kind that will keep families secure and America strong and competitive. If retail jobs are going to be a crucial part of America’s future, then retail jobs need to be the kind of jobs that support American families and communities. They must be the kind of jobs that Americans can be proud to work at — the kind that give more of us a shot at the American Dream.

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YOU Technology Appoints Industry Veteran as Vice President, Retail Business Development

September 1, 2010

Gene Wisniewski, Former Executive at MarketTools, Catalina, and Pepsi, to Spearhead Company’s Continued Expansion Into the Retail Industry

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OmniResponse Appoints New Vice President of Retail Sales

August 31, 2010

CLEARWATER, FL–(Marketwire – August 31, 2010) – OmniReliant Holdings, Inc . ( OTCBB : ORHI ) announces that OmniResponse, Inc ., the wholly owned consumer products enterprise of OmniReliant Holdings, Inc., appointed Travis Berger as Vice President of Retail Sales effective August 23, 2010. This role focuses on introducing OmniResponse brands into the marketplace via numerous retail channels. This new position will focus on making OmniResponse brands and products available to consumers on a much larger scale which we believe will lead to additional revenue growth opportunities.

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Sunil Sharan: Deregulation, the Forsaken Panacea for Climate Change

August 23, 2010

Congress has abandoned yet another climate bill. Gridlock in the august body looms large come November, dampening hopes of effective energy legislation in the foreseeable future. America is stuck. Yet deregulation, a concept all but renounced by the country a decade back in the wake of California’s energy crisis, holds the potential to unlock the gates to climatic heaven. Many American utilities have for long operated as virtual monopolies in their respective jurisdictions so much so that the service territory itself is quite often ingrained into their name. Georgia Power, Southern California Edison, Detroit Edison, Nevada Power, the list is seemingly endless. Aspiring utilities have traditionally found it prohibitive to enter the domain of incumbents. In such an uncompetitive environment, customers are relegated as “rate-payers,” with little choice of suppliers or services. Deregulation would herald competition and break down the bastions of utility protectionism. The European Union mandated liberalization (their term for deregulation) throughout the region four years ago. The fear of a behemoth like EDF of France coming into Italy and snatching a chunk of its customers made the Italian utility Enel roll out the largest grid modernization project in the world five years ago. It thereby transformed its one-trick energy delivery pipe into a multi-faceted platform for customer care. Countries like Germany and Spain have become global leaders in renewable energy. Competition has driven industry consolidation, with big fish such as EDF, Enel, E.ON, and Vattenfall snapping up smaller utilities and improving productivity through economies of scale. Choice now on tap, customers are finally able to dump dirty energy purveyors and switch to greener providers. No wonder Europe is far ahead of the rest of the world in deploying almost every type of clean energy. Currently only about a dozen states in the U.S. allow consumers a mostly-restricted form of choice of electricity providers, with Texas, the largest electricity market in the country, being the most free-wheeling. Deregulation there was phased in beginning in 2002 and is now implemented in over half the state. It is ascribed to have instigated large-scale deployments of smart-grid and wind-energy technologies. Companies like Green Mountain Energy that sell power generated purely from renewable sources have sprung up. Electricity prices in the state, after many years of hovering substantially above the national average, are trending downward, almost touching the mean this year, allaying the fear held by some that deregulation causes prices to rise unsustainably. Texas has become the bellwether for the rest of the country to open up electricity markets. What a contrast from how California went about deregulating itself in the late nineties. In fact, to even call its half-baked experiment as deregulation is a misnomer. The state allowed new entrants into electricity wholesaling while freezing consumer rates, setting the stage for wholesale prices to be manipulated by the likes of Enron when demand for electricity outstripped supply. For deregulation to succeed, both the retail and wholesale ends of electricity have to be opened up, just as Texas has done, so that demand and supply can track one another. Things went so awry for California that the entire nation stood spooked, effectively putting the idea of deregulation in cold storage. Some states still tinkered with the notion but Bush-era feds all but washed their hands off it. The Obama administration decided that clean energy in the country needed a jump start and proceeded to offer utilities a generous stimulus package. Deregulation would still remain off the agenda. Many utilities, already flush with cash, were now able to double dip into two set of pubic funds, the stimulus as well as “rate case” dollars, to enhance their operational infrastructure, without touching their own money. (A rate case transfers the cost of approved capital expenditure to rate-payers, typically as an ongoing monthly charge.) Most other industries have no such luxury; they have to leverage their cash flow for operational upgrades. With hopes fading for another round of clean energy stimulus, and other carbon-reduction schemes such as a capping of emissions or a federal standard for renewable energy generation subject to the vagaries of a squabbling Congress, America’s greening could soon grind to a halt. The stimulus provided utilities with a carrot, now it is time to pull up their socks. Deregulation, in effect, competition, would move the onus from already-strapped tax-payers squarely onto cash-rich utilities, and without the opprobrium that something like cap-and-trade seems to provoke. As has happened in Europe, deregulation in the US will make utilities more efficient, responsive, and hungry. It will release pent-up market forces, incentivizing fleet-footed utilities to thrive and forcing the dead-beats to mend their ways. It will transform rate-payers into customers, who would demand to be treated as such now that they would have the option of taking their custom elsewhere. With such obvious benefits, is it not high time that the US shed its fear of deregulation and brings it out of the closet? Europe, and at home, Texas, have both proven that it works, and that too on a large scale.

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Sunil Sharan: Deregulation, the Forsaken Panacea for Climate Change

August 23, 2010

Congress has abandoned yet another climate bill. Gridlock in the august body looms large come November, dampening hopes of effective energy legislation in the foreseeable future. America is stuck. Yet deregulation, a concept all but renounced by the country a decade back in the wake of California’s energy crisis, holds the potential to unlock the gates to climatic heaven. Many American utilities have for long operated as virtual monopolies in their respective jurisdictions so much so that the service territory itself is quite often ingrained into their name. Georgia Power, Southern California Edison, Detroit Edison, Nevada Power, the list is seemingly endless. Aspiring utilities have traditionally found it prohibitive to enter the domain of incumbents. In such an uncompetitive environment, customers are relegated as “rate-payers,” with little choice of suppliers or services. Deregulation would herald competition and break down the bastions of utility protectionism. The European Union mandated liberalization (their term for deregulation) throughout the region four years ago. The fear of a behemoth like EDF of France coming into Italy and snatching a chunk of its customers made the Italian utility Enel roll out the largest grid modernization project in the world five years ago. It thereby transformed its one-trick energy delivery pipe into a multi-faceted platform for customer care. Countries like Germany and Spain have become global leaders in renewable energy. Competition has driven industry consolidation, with big fish such as EDF, Enel, E.ON, and Vattenfall snapping up smaller utilities and improving productivity through economies of scale. Choice now on tap, customers are finally able to dump dirty energy purveyors and switch to greener providers. No wonder Europe is far ahead of the rest of the world in deploying almost every type of clean energy. Currently only about a dozen states in the U.S. allow consumers a mostly-restricted form of choice of electricity providers, with Texas, the largest electricity market in the country, being the most free-wheeling. Deregulation there was phased in beginning in 2002 and is now implemented in over half the state. It is ascribed to have instigated large-scale deployments of smart-grid and wind-energy technologies. Companies like Green Mountain Energy that sell power generated purely from renewable sources have sprung up. Electricity prices in the state, after many years of hovering substantially above the national average, are trending downward, almost touching the mean this year, allaying the fear held by some that deregulation causes prices to rise unsustainably. Texas has become the bellwether for the rest of the country to open up electricity markets. What a contrast from how California went about deregulating itself in the late nineties. In fact, to even call its half-baked experiment as deregulation is a misnomer. The state allowed new entrants into electricity wholesaling while freezing consumer rates, setting the stage for wholesale prices to be manipulated by the likes of Enron when demand for electricity outstripped supply. For deregulation to succeed, both the retail and wholesale ends of electricity have to be opened up, just as Texas has done, so that demand and supply can track one another. Things went so awry for California that the entire nation stood spooked, effectively putting the idea of deregulation in cold storage. Some states still tinkered with the notion but Bush-era feds all but washed their hands off it. The Obama administration decided that clean energy in the country needed a jump start and proceeded to offer utilities a generous stimulus package. Deregulation would still remain off the agenda. Many utilities, already flush with cash, were now able to double dip into two set of pubic funds, the stimulus as well as “rate case” dollars, to enhance their operational infrastructure, without touching their own money. (A rate case transfers the cost of approved capital expenditure to rate-payers, typically as an ongoing monthly charge.) Most other industries have no such luxury; they have to leverage their cash flow for operational upgrades. With hopes fading for another round of clean energy stimulus, and other carbon-reduction schemes such as a capping of emissions or a federal standard for renewable energy generation subject to the vagaries of a squabbling Congress, America’s greening could soon grind to a halt. The stimulus provided utilities with a carrot, now it is time to pull up their socks. Deregulation, in effect, competition, would move the onus from already-strapped tax-payers squarely onto cash-rich utilities, and without the opprobrium that something like cap-and-trade seems to provoke. As has happened in Europe, deregulation in the US will make utilities more efficient, responsive, and hungry. It will release pent-up market forces, incentivizing fleet-footed utilities to thrive and forcing the dead-beats to mend their ways. It will transform rate-payers into customers, who would demand to be treated as such now that they would have the option of taking their custom elsewhere. With such obvious benefits, is it not high time that the US shed its fear of deregulation and brings it out of the closet? Europe, and at home, Texas, have both proven that it works, and that too on a large scale.

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This Week in Retail: Fitch Projects Modest Growth for Retailers

August 11, 2010

Fitch Ratings sees increased stability for ratings of U.S. retailers through the end of the year, according to its summer 2010 Retail Register report. In fiscal 2011, total sales are expected to grow 4% for the 27 companies under Fitch’s coverage. This…

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Barcelone Retail Center in Las Vegas Troubled | Real Capital Analytics

August 10, 2010

Las Vegas Review Journal reports: Global commercial property research firm Real Capital Analytics listed the 10000-square-foot Las Vegas salon and spa Barcelone as a ” troubled ” property in October 2009 and reported that the retail …

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McDonald’s Sales Post Largest Gain In Over A Year

August 9, 2010

CHICAGO — McDonald’s Corp. posted its biggest monthly increase of a key U.S. sales figure in more than a year on Monday, saying its new fruit smoothies and frappes were a hit with customers during a hot and steamy July. In the U.S., sales at restaurants open at least 13 months climbed 5.7 percent – its biggest monthly increase since it recorded a 6.1 percent gain in April 2009. Overall, the measure rose 7 percent around the globe. It climbed 5.3 percent in Europe and 10.1 percent in the rest of the world, the world’s largest hamburger chain said in a statement on Monday. The figure is considered an important gauge of a restaurant chain’s performance because it excludes the effects of restaurants that open or close during the year. McDonald’s shares climbed 67 cents to $72.41 in pre-market trading Monday. The company’s stock closed Friday at $71.74. McDonald’s is based in the Chicago suburb of Oak Brook, Ill. It has more than 32,000 restaurants around the world in 100 countries. About 14,000 of its locations are in the U.S. ___ AP Retail Writer Mae Anderson contributed to this report from New York.

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Video: Strasser Sees `Choppy’ Environment for U.S. Retailers: Video

August 5, 2010

Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) — David Strasser, an analyst at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, talks about July sales at U.S. retail chains and the outlook for the retail industry. U.S. retailers reported July sales gains that missed analysts’ estimates as consumers cut spending ahead of the back-to-school season. Strasser speaks with Margaret Brennan on Bloomberg Television’s “InBusiness.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Dan Solin: Nationwide Tosses Its 401(k) Clients Under the Bus

August 3, 2010

I really thought there was nothing about the securities industry that would surprise me. Let’s look at its track record. Who can forget the Orange County bankruptcy in 1994? Merrill Lynch agreed to pay $30 million to settle a criminal investigation into that firm’s role in underwriting bond offerings for the county. The crash of technology stocks in 2000, fueled by irresponsible recommendations of brokers, cost investors billions of dollars. There was the analyst scandal in 2002, where major brokerage firms sold out their retail clients for the benefit of their underwriting clients. All this pales in comparison to the 2008 market crash, caused by shameless greed, arrogance and incompetence of brokers. This walk on the wild side brought the global economy to the brink of a worldwide depression. For outright greed and deception, it’s hard to top the 401(k) system. It’s rife with conflicts of interest, exorbitant and often hidden fees, poor investment choices, little participant education and deception about the legal obligations of the brokers and insurance industry to the clueless plan sponsors who retain them. The opposition of the securities industry to the pathetic “i nterim final regulation ” of the Department of Labor is telling. All the new regulation does is require fee disclosure so that employers and plan participants can figure out what they’re paying for their 401(k) plan. Would you buy a car from a dealer who refused to reveal his price? Nevertheless, the position of Nationwide in its defense of a class action lawsuit is so shocking that I was caught completely off guard. Here’s the background: In Haddock v. Nationwide (No. 3:01 cv 1552), filed in the United States District Court for the District of Connecticut, Haddock, a trustee of a retirement plan advised by Nationwide, charges it with accepting “revenue sharing payments” from mutual funds it offered to its annuity contract holders in its retirement plans. Haddock claims the receipt of these payments violates Nationwide ‘s “fiduciary duty,” which Haddock alleges is the duty to act solely in the best interest of the plan participants. The trustee plaintiffs seek to certify a class of all trustees of all 401(k) plans that had variable annuity agreements with Nationwide from the first date Nationwide began receiving payments from mutual funds based on a percentage of the assets invested in the funds by Nationwide. If they succeed, the liability would be enormous. Nationwide denied any wrongdoing and further denied that it was a fiduciary to the plan. In a preliminary ruling issued Nov. 6, 2009, the Court found Nationwide “may be a fiduciary”, noting that “…by accepting the revenue sharing payments from mutual funds that it selects to be investment options for the Plans and its participants, Nationwide is allegedly placing its interests in collecting revenue sharing payments ahead of selecting the best investment options for the Plans and participants. The revenue sharing payments are an incentive for Nationwide to offer those mutual funds to the Plans as investment options.” Stung by its efforts to get this massive case thrown out, Nationwide took a legal position which is the equivalent to tossing its clients under the bus. It sought to bring its own class action against all the trustees for the plans that were in the alleged class. It argued that, to the extent the plans were harmed by its revenue sharing arrangement, the trustees (its clients!) were responsible to reimburse them because of their “…failure to exercise reasonable prudence and care.” Translation: If our conduct caused harm to the plan participants, it was our clients’ fault for not being smart enough to put a stop to it. In a decision dated July 23, 2010, the Court dismissed this counterclaim. The fact that Nationwide would seek to blame its clients for its own wrongdoing raises the bar for arrogance and lack of accountability in an industry known for its callous disregard for the interest of its clients. The reality is that trustees of 401(k) plans typically accept the recommendations of advisers without question. Their “ratification” is a mere formality. The ratification requirement is slipped into the plan documents so that advisers can avoid taking legal responsibility for the investment decisions they make. Few employers (or their lawyers), understand the legal significance of this sleight of hand. Hopefully, Nationwide’s effort to avoid fiduciary responsibility and transfer liability to its clients will be a much needed wake-up call. Employers can avoid these legal issues by insisting their advisers accept in writing full 3(38) ERISA responsibility for investments in the plan. This means the adviser is 100% liable for the selection and monitoring of these investments. No need to wonder whose side Nationwide is on. Its own. The views set forth in this blog are the opinions of the author alone and may not represent the views of any firm or entity with whom he is affiliated. The data, information, and content on this blog are for information, education, and non-commercial purposes only. Returns from index funds do not represent the performance of any investment advisory firm. The information on this blog does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice and is limited to the dissemination of opinions on investing. No reader should construe these opinions as an offer of advisory services. Readers who require investment advice should retain the services of a competent investment professional. The information on this blog is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities or class of securities mentioned herein. Furthermore, the information on this blog should not be construed as an offer of advisory services. Please note that the author does not recommend specific securities nor is he responsible for comments made by persons posting on this blog. Here is the trailer for my new book, Timeless Investment Advice .

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Linda A. Woolley: Postage Increases Will Hurt USPS in the Long Run

August 3, 2010

Just following the July 4th holiday, the Postal Service quietly announced a rate hike equal to ten times the rate of inflation. The decision to hit their customers with such a steep increase is only the most recent example of Postal management failing to treat the Service like a business – chasing three years of declining revenues with a rate hike that will send customers running and the Postal Service further into its own death spiral. In addition to defying all logical business sense, the request for these rate hikes is illegal. In 2006, Congress understood that mail volume would continue to decline due to increased usage of the Internet – a fact that had been clear for ten years. In response, Congress passed a law that created incentive-based postal rates, and specified that postage rates could not rise more than the rate of inflation, assuming Americans would benefit from a Postal Service with greater flexibility. If the Postal Service could control costs to be less than inflation, it would reap financial rewards. If it could not, the Service would have to cut costs and improve its business. Gone were the days of just raising postage and expecting customers to pay. Or so we thought. The problem lies in an “escape clause” in the 2006 law. It allowed postage to increase more than inflation only if the Service could show that there were extraordinary or “exigent” circumstances. At the time, Congress was thinking of severe circumstances – terrorist attacks or other massive crises – not lack of business savvy. But this month the Postal Service used this clause to raise rates, citing as an exigent circumstances the diversion of traditional mail to the Internet, combined with the recent recession. The rate increase that the Service seeks is ten times the rate currently permissible by law. So what does that mean for the future of this American institution? What will happen if postage rates are increased ten times the rate of inflation? It is quite a simple proposition. More of the Postal Service’s customers will leave the mail stream and the Service will be left with even lower volume and lower revenue. Rather than raising prices at a time when its customers are just beginning to recover from the recession, the Postal Service should be emulating its closest competitors, Federal Express (FedEx) and United Parcel Service (UPS). From 2008 to 2009, FedEx and UPS had revenue declines of 16% and 12%, respectively. They both aggressively cut expenses during that same period by 14% and 9%. In the same period, the Postal Service experienced a smaller revenue loss of 9%, yet cut expenses by only 3%. While we applaud the Service for cutting expenses, it has not been nearly aggressive enough in doing so. The Service should also create new products to grow business. Today, commercial mailers attempt to reach customers by using multiple classes of mail – first-class, standard (advertising), periodical, and parcel mail. The Service, however, treats those mailers as customers of each class of mail separately. There are none of the “bundled packages” that we see in the communications world of voice, TV, radio, Internet. Without growth in mail volume, all Americans will suffer. So it is no surprise to anyone that the Postal Service is operating in the red to the tune of more than $7 billion dollars and that its solution to the shortfall is to treat the mailing community more like banks than valued customers. Commercial mailers would bear the brunt of the proposed increase. For those (inconsistent) crusaders who rail against “junk mail,” and yet want to keep their local post offices open, let’s put one fact on the table: Commercial mail currently accounts for 85% of the Postal Service’s revenue. While commercial mailers understand that the Service faces a huge financial problem, a massive rate hike is not the answer, precisely because a rate increase of this magnitude undoubtedly will cause that 85 percent of its current revenue to shrink further. Without that revenue, the Service could not even come close to maintaining all of the retail facilities that members of Congress and their constituents depend on. The Postal Service and its Board of Governors, together with the Postal Regulatory Commission (PRC) and Congress, should be making aggressive cost-cutting moves, as well as doing all that it possibly can to reward current customers and attract new ones. By asking for a huge price increase, it is doing the opposite. If the Service will not withdraw the rate increase request, the PRC should find that it is not supported by either law or economics. If the PRC does not do this, Congress should once again point the Postal Service in the right direction.

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Gorilla Glass, 1962 Invention, Poised To Be Big Seller For Corning

August 2, 2010

CORNING, N.Y. — An ultra-strong glass that has been looking for a purpose since its invention in 1962 is poised to become a multibillion-dollar bonanza for Corning Inc. The 159-year-old glass pioneer is ramping up production of what it calls Gorilla glass, expecting it to be the hot new face of touch-screen tablets and high-end TVs. Gorilla showed early promise in the ’60s, but failed to find a commercial use, so it’s been biding its time in a hilltop research lab for almost a half-century. It picked up its first customer in 2008 and has quickly become a $170 million a year business as a protective layer over the screens of 40 million-plus cell phones and other mobile devices. Now, the latest trend in TVs could catapult it to a billion-dollar business: Frameless flat-screens that could be mistaken for chic glass artwork on a living-room wall. Because Gorilla is very hard to break, dent or scratch, Corning is betting it will be the glass of choice as TV-set manufacturers dispense with protective rims or bezels for their sets, in search of an elegant look. Gorilla is two to three times stronger than chemically strengthened versions of ordinary soda-lime glass, even when just half as thick, company scientists say. Its strength also means Gorilla can be thinner than a dime, saving on weight and shipping costs. Corning is in talks with Asian manufacturers to bring Gorilla to the TV market in early 2011 and expects to land its first deal this fall. With production going full-tilt in Harrodsburg, Ky., it is converting part of a second factory in Shizuoka, Japan, to fill a potential burst of orders by year-end. “That’ll tell you something about our confidence in this,” said Corning President Peter Volanakis. Investors are taking notice. In June, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. in New York raised Corning’s projected share price, predicting Gorilla would be its second biggest business by 2015. “There’s a wide range of views on how successful this product will be,” said Deutsche Bank analyst Carter Shoop. “But I think it’s safe to say that, in aggregate, people are becoming much more bullish. It’s a tremendous opportunity. We’ll have to see how consumers react.” DisplaySearch market analyst Paul Gagnon said alternatives “obviously scratch easier, they’re thicker and heavier, but they’re also cheaper.” He estimates that a sheet of Gorilla would add $30 to $60 to the cost of a set. It remains to be seen “whether this becomes a hit trend that propagates to other models and sizes or remains in the confines of a premium step-up series of products,” Gagnon said. “This is a fashion trend, not a functional trend, and that’s what makes (the growth rate) very hard to predict,” said Volanakis. “But because the market is so large in terms of number of TVs – and the amount of glass per TV is so large – that’s what can move the needle pretty quickly.” Based in western New York, Corning is the world’s largest maker of glass for liquid-crystal-display computers and TVs. High-margin LCD glass generated the bulk of Corning’s $5.4 billion in 2009 sales. By ramping up volume production quickly in a budding market, Corning is pursuing a well-worn strategy designed to keep rivals from gaining ground. Its patience is also well practiced. Executives know too well the gulf between inspiration and application is sometimes decades-wide. Corning set out in the late 1950s to find a glass as strong as steel. Dubbed Project Muscle, the effort combined heating and layering experiments and produced a robust yet bendable material called Chemcor. Then in 1964, Corning devised an ingenious method called “fusion draw” to make super-thin, unvaryingly flat glass. It pumped hot glass into a suspended trough and allowed it to overflow and run down either side. The glass flows then meet under the trough and fuse seamlessly into a smooth, hanging sheet of glass. To make Chemcor, Corning ran the sheets through a “tempering” process that set up internal stresses in the material. The same principle is behind the toughness of Pyrex glass, but Chemcor was tempered in a chemical bath, not by heat treatment. Corning thought Chemcor sheets created this way would be the material of choice in car windshields, but British rival Pilkington Bros. intervened with a far cheaper mass-production approach. And another Chemcor adaptation in photochromic sunglasses also fizzled in the retail market. Fusion draw finally proved its commercial value when Japanese electronics companies, looking for slim sheets free of alkalis that contaminate liquid crystals, turned to Corning’s soda-lime LCD glass in the 1980s. Corning rapidly turned into the world’s biggest supplier of LCD glass for laptops and that business blossomed around 2003 when LCD technology migrated to TVs. In 2006, when demand surfaced for a cell phone cover glass, Corning dug out Chemcor from its database, tweaked it for manufacturing in LCD tanks, and renamed it Gorilla. “Initially, we were telling ourselves a $10 million business,” said researcher Ron Stewart. With relatively low startup costs, Gorilla should generate its first profit this year. And now that production is back on, designers are again exploring using it in unexpected places, like refrigerator doors, car sunroofs and touch-screen hotel advertising. Among the 100-plus devices with Gorilla are Motorola Inc.’s Droid smart phone and LG Electronics’ X300 notebook. Whether Apple Inc. uses the glass in its iPod is a much-discussed mystery since “not all our customers allow us to say,” said Jim Steiner, general manager of Corning’s specialty materials division. Since the Civil War, Corning has turned out a glittering array of innovations from railroad signals to Pyrex and auto-pollution filters to optical fiber. Allotting 10 percent of revenue to research keeps promising projects brewing at its Sullivan Park research hub on Corning’s hilly outskirts. Optical fiber is another example of an invention that took a long time to come into its own. In 1934, chemist Frank Hyde came up with a practical method of making fused silica – an exceptionally pure glass – in bulk, yet it wasn’t put to use as optical fiber until the 1970s. Once there, it helped create the Internet revolution. In his office lobby, Steiner showed off a 400-foot-long spool of flexible, 16-inch-wide glass that’s as thin as a sheet of paper. “Kind of like Chemcor was back in the ’60s,” he said. “We’re not sure what we’re going to do with it, but it’s cool, isn’t it?”

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Groupon Deals Flood Local Shops With New Customers — And Some Can’t Keep up

August 2, 2010

CHICAGO — Local shops nationwide are pulling in thousands of new customers with group coupons online, but the deals can sometimes work too well, turning marketing into a game of retail roulette. Some of the nail salons, restaurants and other small shops that have sold the coupons have risked both new and existing business as they struggled to handle the surge in clients. For Crystal Nail Salon in Chicago, ratings at web sites like Yelp.com tumbled as owner Phu Bui struggled to serve up the 5,100 manicure-pedicure combinations he sold in June for 65 percent off. “All of a sudden it went over the edge of my expectations, so I’m a little overwhelmed,” Bui says. Chicago-based Groupon, credited with creating the group discount concept and still the ballooning trend’s leader, typically keeps half the coupon’s selling price and charges retailers a processing fee. It e-mails deals daily to 11 million shoppers in 150 cities in 19 countries and this month started tweeting about group deals to many millions more. The messages, which cost retailers little up front, typically promote a service at a significant discount and require a minimum number of participants (the group) to take effect. Being available for only a day or two – and often to a limited number of people – gives them an added sense of urgency. Bui – who bypassed Groupon’s recommendation to limit the number of $28 coupons – says he’ll consider offering an online deal again, even though some patrons complained of long waits, inadequate treatments and feeling rushed. It may not pay off. “They have this one opportunity to enhance an experience for a customer and if they fail then you might not be coming back,” says Courtney Smolen, 29, whose appointment at Crystal was delayed 30 minutes. Scores of websites besides Groupon offer similar deals, including buywithme.com, livingsocial.com and even some newspapers. “If you’re prepared, it can be a really great thing,” says Tony Gordon, who offered coupons for half-price massages through Groupon.com in December. “If you haven’t used your foresight or you haven’t extrapolated what’s going to occur, it could kill your business.” Groupon suggested he add workers to book appointments, Gordon says, and he later hired four new therapists and expanded the Chicago salon. He says he achieved his goal of creating new long-term customers of some of the nearly 3,200 people who bought the discounts, and he would consider trying again. But the gamble was expensive: His shop received less than $20 for each massage, compared with the normal $84. At Bikram Yoga Milwaukee, owner Bron Gacki had a very un-yoga reaction last month after selling nearly 2,500 Groupon coupons, when he expected to sell 1,000. He almost panicked. “What if 2,500 people show up tomorrow? What’s going to happen?” he recalls thinking. Gacki and his employees have worked extra hours signing up new customers for five classes for $15, a steal compared with the usual $90. Classes are 20 percent to 50 percent bigger, and teachers are arriving early to make sure the studio can accommodate everyone. CEO and founder Andrew Mason of Groupon says the company explains the risk shops take when they sign on. It tells its 30,000 clients not to expect to turn a profit on the deals and suggests they limit the number of coupons they sell. The company also thinks the risk of drawing too many customers will ease as it starts drilling down to offer coupons tailored to neighborhoods and smaller cities. Most retailers don’t cap the number they sell because they see it as turning away customers, says Chris Connelly, a senior executive in Accenture’s retail practice. “You’re a retailer, and it’s in your DNA as a retailer to sell people product.” ___ AP Retail Writer Emily Fredrix reported from New York.

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Tax Holidays: States Gamble On Back-to-School Shopping Deals To Stimulate Consumer Spending

July 30, 2010

Today kicks off the first tax holiday for the back-to-school shopping season, but low consumer morale may end up causing a further drain on state governments instead of stimulating the retail industry. With the lure of 7-percent savings on clothing and footwear, Mississippians will head to the malls today and tomorrow to stock up on fall clothes and new shoes, but several municipalities opted out of the holiday this year due to economic concerns over lost sales tax revenue. According to Kathy Waterbury, spokesperson at the Mississippi Department of Revenue, the holiday is intended to “give a break to consumers” right before the start of the school year, but the waived tax may not be enough to rev up shopping. “I think consumers are still being very cautious,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Consumer Research Center at the Conference Board. “They will weigh those spending decisions very carefully.” The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index had been increasing since a low in February, but confidence in the economy started to slip due to low job growth. The index dropped from 54.3 to 50.4 in July, which is only a slight improvement over last July’s level of consumer confidence. When asked whether the back-to-school tax break would spur shopping, Franco replied, “while it will definitely help sales, I don’t think, in of itself, it will be sufficient.” About a decade ago, states began to suspend taxes on school-related items at the end of the summer to help residents out with school expenses, and now more than ever consumers need all of the help that they can get. In fact, Maryland and Illinois have hopped on the bandwagon this year by designating tax-free days in August, and Florida is reviving their event after a two-year lapse. “Illinois has a high unemployment rate, and people have lost wages because their hours have been cut,” said Susan Hofer, Communications Manager for Governor Quinn. “We’ve seen retail stores throughout the summer really suffering with low traffic.” Governor Quinn coordinated with the Illinois Retail Merchants Association to encourage retailers to offer additional discounts during the tax break to incentivize consumers to spend even more during the holiday. Though offering discounts may lure reluctant shoppers to the mall, there is concern among state governments that the loss of tax revenue may hurt their ailing budgets. After several years of hosting a back-to-school tax break holiday, the Georgia legislature opted not to renew it. According to Bert Brantley, spokesperson for Governor Perdue, the state “loses” approximately $13 million in tax revenue during the holiday. “There is a decent argument to be made that people do all of their shopping in that one weekend,” said Brantly. “I don’t know that they really spend any more. People may even spend less to get the same.” Some analysts, however, are more optimistic about the back-to-school shopping season in the wake of last year’s massive spending cutback. The National Retail Federation’s annual Consumer Intentions and Actions Back to School survey predicts that each American household will spend on average $606.40 on back-to-school items, compared to the estimated $548.72 spent last year. “Most parents just ‘made do’ with the supplies that they had last year,” said Ellen Davis, Vice President and Spokesperson at the NRF. “Parents can’t make do with everything again this year. There is more of a pent-up demand situation.” Regardless of the level of success of the back-to-school shopping this coming month, even minimal increases in spending will be a positive sign of recovery and improvement in the retail industry; after all, “we are not looking to break any retail records this year,” added Davis.

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Tom Emmer, Anti-Gay Pol, Gets Donations From Target, Stirring Up Controversy

July 28, 2010

Over at The Awl, Abe Sauer has been documenting the rise to prominence of Tom Emmer , a Republican member of Minnesota’s State House of Representatives who is running to replace Tim Pawlenty as Minnesota’s governor. Most of you non-Minnesotans probably know Emmer as the guy who wanted to cut the minimum wage for service-sector workers who earn income based on tips . Another thing you might want to know is that he’s hostile to the rights of the LGBT community. Per Sauer : Emmer says marriage “is the union between one man and one woman” and he supports the constitutional marriage amendment defining marriage as such. As a point of his “values” position, Emmer has been married to just one (presumably biological) woman since 1985. Meanwhile, claiming that it infringes on individual rights, he opposed the state’s indoor smoking ban. Displaying a complete lack of self-awareness, Emmer called one of these two issues “social engineering.” Can you guess which one? Enter national mega-retailer Target, whose corporate headquarters is in Minneapolis. As Sauer reported last week, Target donated “$100,000 cash and another $50,000 of in-kind goods and services” to a political action committee named MN Forward. In turn, MN Forward has used those donations to run ads in favor of Emmer’s candidacy. Sauer called Target’s donations “surprising,” and it’s not hard to see why : Progressive compared to its peers, Target extends domestic-partner benefits to gay and lesbian employees. It has also openly sponsored Twin Cities Pride and other gay and lesbian events in the state. Target puts its name on Minnesota AIDS Walk, a move that many corporations, worried about religious consumer terrorism, are far too cowardly to even consider. Target’s been deservedly rewarded, receiving a top rating of 100 percent on the 2009 and 2010 Human Rights Campaign Corporate Equality Index and Best Places to Work for LGBT Equality, the 2009 Rainbow Families Award and the 2009 Lavender Pride Award–and a reputation amongst the LGBT community as a “good” big box retailer. In subsequent follow-ups, Sauer has documented that Target’s response to inquiries on this matter is based on two points . First: that its donations are based “strictly on issues that affect our retail and business interests.” Second: It continually insists that its “rating of 100% on the 2009 and 2010 Human Rights Campaign Corporate Equality Index further demonstrates the reputation our company has earned.” The Huffington Post reached out to the Human Rights Campaign today, to inquire about whether Target’s political donations in this instance would affect that pristine 100 percent rating on its Corporate Equality Index. The short answer: No, because political donations aren’t part of that index’s calculations. From HRC spokesman Michael Cole: Since news of Target’s contribution to MN Forward, an independent expenditure committee, became public last week, people have asked HRC if political contributions by companies are factored into a company’s score on the Corporate Equality Index (CEI). Unless the contribution is to a ballot initiative that is anti-LGBT (such as California’s Prop. 8 in 2008), political contributions are not factored into a company’s score for a number of good reasons. It’s important to understand that the CEI is a measure of the workplace practices of a company toward its own LGBT employees. We don’t believe that rating companies based upon their political contributions is an accurate reflection of their commitment to LGBT equality in the workplace. In fact, corporate America is leading the way on issues of equality: over 85% of Fortune 500 companies prohibit discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation and 40% include gender identity in their nondiscrimination policies; and 57% provide domestic partnership health insurance benefits. Companies most often contribute for reasons associated with their particular business. With respect to the CEI and political contributions, it would be difficult to develop criteria by which to judge companies. Virtually every company in the Fortune 1000 today has contributed to candidates (of both political parties) that have voted against issues important to the LGBT community. There are Democrats and Republicans alike, for instance, that voted against the repeal of DADT in the U.S. House of Representatives. Should a company that contributed to these incumbents get points deducted from their CEI score? As a rule, we don’t believe that political contributions to candidates make companies any less committed to a diverse and inclusive workforce. HRC does pledge to keep an eye on this issue, however: The advent of unlimited corporate political contributions as a result of a recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling is a subject of great concern to all progressive movements, ours included. We will continue to monitor its impact on issues of equality and will revisit the issue of whether and how to factor in the political contributions made by corporate America as new information becomes known to us. Over at the Village Voice , Jen Doll speaks to Target spokesperson Jessica Carlson, and gets a little bit further with Target’s side of this debate: So, why donate to someone who’s anti gay marriage if you call yourself a supporter of the gay comunity? Carlson : At this point what we’re sharing is what was in Gregg’s email. To be clear, we donated to a political action committee, the MN Forward, which is a bi-partisan group, and not directly to Emmer’s campaign. Carlson goes on to say that she “can’t speculate on the nature of where our donations will go” in the wake of this story. RELATED: Real America: Why Target Supports Tom Emmer [The Awl] Real America: Target CEO Chooses “Business” over Gay Rights [The Awl] Target Says “We Do Not Have a Political Agenda” [Runnin' Scared @ The Village Voice] [Would you like to follow me on Twitter ? Because why not? Also, please send tips to tv@huffingtonpost.com -- learn more about our media monitoring project here .]

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Matt Fellowes: Payday Lending’s Final Payday?

July 22, 2010

While the financial reform law that was signed by President Obama yesterday signaled a renewed interest in Washington to regulate go-go bankers, it may have an even greater impact on “fringe banking” — the high-cost, dead-end alternative banking industry that includes payday lenders and check cashers. Regulators across the country and new competition from banks are squeezing their ability to survive. Every year, this $250 billion market serves about 20 million U.S. households (about one-fifth of the population), most of whom are middle- and low-income. Fringe banks charge skyscraping prices for a handful of basic services that are available at banks for much less. The average payday loan, for instance, carries an APR of about 390 percent, compared to an average credit card APR of around 14 percent. Regular check-cashing customers pay almost $1,000 a year. Considering that the average customer earns about $20,000, that’s a dire amount of money to be paying for a service that’s free at most banks. Conventional banks have traditionally stayed away from the 20 million households in the fringe bank market, fearing low revenue opportunities and high credit risks. But the financial reform bill is the latest in a series of recent market changes that have started to fundamentally change that equation. Here’s why: new regulations are choking off fringe banks’ ability to survive. From the dozens of states that have been tightening regulations in recent years to the new federal Consumer Financial Protection Agency that promises to reign in misleading consumer finance policies and practices, the high-fee model is drawing an increasing amount of criticism and pushback from regulators. Just as important, bank shareholders will demand that banks start competing with their newly hobbled fringe counterparts for those 20 million households. The fact is, banks’ current business model is forcing them to serve an ever-shrinking share of the market that has money to burn and does not pose a significant credit risk. The reform bill reinforces banks’ conservative standard through strict lending requirements and other mandates. These credit-constraining provisions have plenty of consumer finance experts predicting a windfall for the fringe bankers who are standing at the ready to serve those turned away from banks. Yes, a payday may be coming, but it won’t last. If banks want to grow in the future, they will have to adapt their business models to serve the credit-challenged population. They will also acquire start-up companies that are already striving to serve that market through models that will pass muster with watchful regulators (see, for example, Progreso Financiero ). Just last week FICO reported that, for the first time, one-third of the population has a high-risk credit rating and that share is forecasted to continue expanding over the next few years. That means one out of three Americans already looks unattractive to banks, and that millions more will be soon be joining them. A final strike against fringe banking is that one of their major competitive advantages — transparent pricing — is due to expire. I’ve found in my research that about half of fringe banking customers choose to use these services because they fear “hidden” bank fees (such as overdrafts), even though most would actually save money by using banks. When banks are forced to advertise their fee structures as clearly as a McDonald’s menu rather than burying them in fine print, the “hidden fee” deterrent will disappear. Already, the first wave of financial reform last year has forced banks to move away from “hidden” fees (like overdrafts) and toward “transparent” ones (like monthly fees). The impact of this shift will lessen as banks attempt to recoup lost revenue elsewhere, but check cashing costs an average of $1,000 each year — even if upfront (transparent) fees increase, it’s unlikely that banks will ever drain customers’ finances at the same level. Add it all up, and fringe banking appears to be headed for the exit ramp — but not before one last raid on millions of people’s wallets. Banks have traditionally been sluggish in adopting strategic rethinking related to their retail businesses, and reform will move slowly before it has a meaningful impact on the industry. Still, competition from banks for fringe banking customers will grow rapidly in the years to come, and eventually regulators will squeeze out the remaining viability of these dead-end, high-cost businesses. For the millions of fringe banking customers, that day can’t come too soon.

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CoStar’s People of Note (July 11-17)

July 15, 2010

This week’s People of Note includes the following markets: Atlanta, Denver, Minneapolis, Orange County, Retail and Southern California ATLANTA Transwestern Adds to Asset Services Team; Wins 800,000-SF Assignment The Atlanta branch of Transwestern…

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Leading Minds Join Propel to Build-Out the Nation’s Largest Network of Renewable Fuel Stations

July 8, 2010

Executives in Finance, Construction, Retail Operations and Technology, Accelerate Expansion

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Kuntz Named Senior Vice President of Sales and Service at TopLine Federal Credit Union

June 30, 2010

MAPLE GROVE, MN–(Marketwire – June 30, 2010) –  Kevin Kuntz has joined TopLine Federal Credit Union as Senior Vice President of Sales and Service. In his new role, Kuntz is a member of TopLine’s senior management team and oversees all aspects of our retail branching.

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Japan’s Retail Sales Fall Most in Five Years on Fading Stimulus

June 28, 2010

Japan’s Retail Sales Fall Most in Five Years on Fading Stimulus

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Brett King: BANK 2.0: Branch Networks under threat!

June 28, 2010

I’ve spent the better part of the last three months meeting and talking to some of the best and brightest bankers in Australia, Asia, UK and the USA and what I’ve learned is fairly predictable, and just a little disappointing. Direct banking (mostly Internet and Mobile) is going off everywhere I go, but most banks are still saddled with an unhealthy attachment to their branch networks. I decided to try and figure out where Branch banking is really going and surmise the strategic options for Retail banks. Branch Networks under pressure In the US last year branch growth was non-existent, well to be technically correct branch growth was 0.39% , but that is the lowest it has been in 14 years and the trends are clear – there will be no more branch growth in the USA. In the UK branch growth has declined on average 24% in the last 5 years. In Australia, after fits and starts, branch decline has definitely set in, with 2010 being the 4 th year running that branches have declined in numbers. In Sweden last year, 88% of Swedes didn’t even visit a branch . In the annual American Banker’s Association survey on channel preferences, the branch continues to suffer (41% decline in just 3 years) as Internet Banking has become the dominant day-to-day channel of choice. So does this spell doom and gloom for banking? No. There is some good news, in fact some may say excellent news on the horizon. What UBank and ING Direct tell us In Australia, UBank , an exercise in direct banking for NAB has rapidly paid dividends. Within just 3 years UBank has become the 8 th largest bank by deposits in Australia. But where can UBank go from here after such a strong start? While UBank has faced some leadership challenges in recent times , I spoke to Sam Plowman , Executive GM of Direct Banking at NAB, last week and I was delighted to hear that UBank is a big part of their forward-looking strategy, with a host of new products planned over the next few months. This must be the only sensible move for NAB given their current market share and the unbridled success of UBank. In fact, UBank would probably have to be considered the single most successful initiative NAB has launched in the last 5 years, wouldn’t it? Sam’s colleague Simon Terry is currently working on the launch of the Oracle-powered NextGen platform that will power future innovation in customer experience. Between Sam and Simon, they hold the future of the bank in their hands. If UBank continues to perform so well though, what happens to NAB itself? The key lesson from UBank’s success must be that direct banking is at the very core of NAB’s business moving forward – if NAB falls into the trap of thinking it’s a one-hit deposit taking wonder, they would be missing the point; Customer Behaviour has already shifted. How do you deal with the runaway success of a new direct banking brand when you run a $100m branch network? Tough question… Is UBank an isolated case? ING Direct recorded profits of US $101m profit (EUR 75m) last year up 70.5% year-on-year, this in the tail of the global financial crisis. Rabo Bank, Jibun, Shinshei and PayPal have all had similar results as either Internet-only or mobile-based models of banking and payments. But it’s not just profitability. Branch networks are contracting as customer behavior shifts In their annual customer satisfaction survey, UK-based consumer sentiment research group Which? polled over 15,000 UK members to see what they thought about the relative performance of the various high street and direct banks. First Direct and Smile were top of the ranking this year, with scores of 89% and 87% respectively. Mobile increases the threat to Branch Mobile is now a huge area of investment. Bank of America has more than 4 million customers actively using their mobile banking platform currently, making it the most successful mobile bank in the USA. BofA say they’ve added more than 150,000 new customers just because of their mobile platform. But mobile is more than a transactional channel for BofA as this excerpt from a recent Bloomberg article shows: Bank of America Corp. went from buying an occasional mobile campaign to paying Phonevalley , the agency run by Publicis’ Mars, a $1 million annual retainer, said Kathryn Condon, a vice president of digital marketing at the bank. Google’s AdMob is among the ad-placement companies used by Bank of America, the largest U.S. bank by assets. With Direct and Internet banking at all time highs in terms of adoption rates, with the breakout success of mobile Internet banking in recent times, and customer channel preferences clearly shifting for the bulk of retail segments, where can we go from here? Where to from here? There are three scenarios for Branch Networks: All the trending data is wrong and the branch is about to face a resurgence in popularity because people seek a return to high quality, face-to-face engagement Nothing will happen – branch population will neither grow nor decline in the next few years All the trending data is right and we are seeing a shift in customer behaviour that will increasingly see branch-based banking at risk When retail distribution specialists are looking at the positioning of branch real-estate there are a number of considerations, but the foremost consideration is where physically to put a branch to enable the most visits – essentially, how convenient it is to get to a branch. But these days, the branch simply isn’t the most convenient channel to use – Internet, Mobile and ATMs are far more ‘convenient’. Key segments like Mass Affluent, and key product areas like mortgages, wealth management and loans are just too easy to position and service through direct channels. Branches better start figuring out how they’re going to make money over the next 5 years, and they better do it fast. The first thing banks need to do is reorganize their organization structure to be channel agnostic. The days of ‘alternative’ channels are gone – Internet, mobile, direct are mainstream. Thus, the organization structure should reflect the same – Head of Branches, Head of Internet, Head of Mobile, Head of Social Media should be equals in the retail team- why? Because that’s how customers think. The second thing is banks need to get better at measuring where the money comes from. A customer might end up at the branch, but how does he get there? Does he get there because of a compliance procedure (“Can you come into the branch to sign this?”) or does he end up there because he wants a face to face discussion? By better understand the behavioral drivers, we can determine those branches which will remain profitable and those that no longer cut the mustard, as they say.

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Nestle Navigates Amazon Rivers to Reach Cut-Off Consumers Before Unilever

June 17, 2010

By Tom Mulier and Iuri Dantas June 17 (Bloomberg) — Nestle SA will begin sailing a supermarket barge down two Amazon river tributaries tomorrow as it competes with Unilever to reach emerging-market customers cut off from branded goods. The world’s largest food company will send a boat with 100-square meters (1,076 square feet) of supermarket space on a journey to 18 small cities and 800,000 potential consumers on the Para and Xingu rivers in Brazil, before starting the journey again. The vessel will carry 300 different goods including chocolate, yogurt, ice cream and juices. “Direct distribution gives them a competitive edge over regional competitors who don’t have the resources to do this kind of thing,” said James Targett , an analyst at Consumer Equity Research in London. He has a “positive” rating on Vevey, Switzerland-based Nestle. Nestle expects as many as 1 billion people in emerging markets to exit poverty and be able to afford its products in the coming decade. The foodmaker has adapted its products in such regions by offering smaller, cheaper versions of products such as Alpino ice cream and Ninho milk powder through direct distribution to make them more accessible to low-income shoppers. Unilever has also been building a distribution network into Brazil’s shantytowns. Strong in Brazil “Unilever is very strong in Brazil and has been there a long time, and is used to getting poorer consumers in rural areas,” said James Amoroso , a food industry consultant based in Walchwil, Switzerland. “It’s obviously more expensive to establish yourself before the retail distribution is there, and this is what Nestle is trying to do.” Supermarket purchases in Brazil’s impoverished northern and northeast regions have outpaced growth from richer states in the south and southeast for the last two years as social programs and a higher minimum wage increased disposable income for the poor, Sussumu Honda, head of the national supermarkets association, said in an interview June 2. Brazil’s supermarket sales rose a record 15 percent in March from a year earlier, according to data from the country’s statistics agency. The increased demand means that supermarkets in remote areas have had difficulty keeping products on the shelves as suppliers are unable to meet orders, Honda said. Economic Growth Latin America’s biggest economy expanded 9 percent in the first quarter, the fastest annual growth rate since 1995, led by domestic demand and investments, the statistics agency said last week. Policy makers raised the benchmark interest rate for the second time this year to 10.25 percent last week to keep the economy from overheating. Nestle sells 3,950 products in “popularly positioned” formats designed for low-income consumers. Smaller packs allow poor consumers to afford branded goods like richer shoppers rather than turn to generic alternatives. The company often adds nutrients such as iron, zinc, iodine and vitamin A to address deficiencies among the poor. The Swiss company has a team of 7,000 saleswomen who peddle packs of Nestle goods door-to-door in Brazilian slums. In Indonesia, Nestle cut out middlemen and began shipping directly to wholesalers to expand its reach to consumers among the country’s 17,000 islands. Nestle has forecast global sales from such products eventually reaching 20 billion Swiss francs ($18 billion) from 8.8 billion francs last year. Unilever , which sells smaller sizes of its products, such as Seda shampoo, in Brazil, already gets half its sales from developing countries. Emerging Markets Nestle had 2009 food and beverage sales growth in emerging markets of 8.5 percent, more than double the rate of its total business. The company has said it aims to boost the proportion of sales from developing countries to 45 percent in a decade from 35 percent now. Nestle isn’t the only one to take to water transport in the Amazon. Banco Bradesco SA , Brazil’s second-biggest bank by market value, started to offer banking services in December via the Solimoes River, also in the Amazon. Bradesco made 700 new clients after six months, Director Odair Afonso Rebelato said. “These clients don’t want to be labeled as poor,” Rebelato said. “They want the same products as everybody else.” To contact the reporters on this story: Tom Mulier in Geneva at tmulier@bloomberg.net ; Iuri Dantas in Brasilia at idantas@bloomberg.net

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