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Australian Dollar Tracks Gold Prices, Short-Term Risks Favor Gains

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Australian Dollar Tracks Gold Prices, Short-Term Risks Favor Gains

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Euro Risks to Downside as Greek Troubles threaten Euro Zone

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Euro Risks to Downside as Greek Troubles threaten Euro Zone

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EUR/CAD Trade Looks Promising Ahead Of Major Event Risks, Swiss Franc Reversal To Gather Pace

May 18, 2011

EUR/CAD Trade Looks Promising Ahead Of Major Event Risks, Swiss Franc Reversal To Gather Pace

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Canadian Dollar Likely Topped Against US Dollar, Risks to Downside

May 14, 2011

Canadian Dollar Likely Topped Against US Dollar, Risks to Downside

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U.S. Dollar Index Pares Decline Ahead Of China Event Risks

May 10, 2011

U.S. Dollar Index Pares Decline Ahead Of China Event Risks

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Ron Ashkenas: Every Manager Is a Risk Manager

May 5, 2011

An MBA student once asked me to give her a simple explanation of the “risk management function.” After a few minutes of fumbling, I told her that risk management is the process of identifying, prioritizing, and mitigating the impact of unforeseen (and usually negative) events. In other words, it’s a form of proactive contingency planning — either to completely avoid difficult situations, or prepare for them so that any undesirable consequences are lessened. Her question got me thinking about who is actually responsible for managing risk in an organization. There are many types of risk, and the official risk management function usually only addresses the most critical ones . For example, in a bank, risk management concentrates on financial risk; in a hospital , the focus is on patient and legal risk; in a manufacturing firm, the concern might be product or environmental liability; and in a utility the priority is outages. Since these “big” risks are either integral to conducting business or threaten business continuity, it’s appropriate that they receive special attention and resources. But on a day-to-day basis, managers face many other types of risk that are less visible and therefore receive less attention. But these risks also need to be managed — and if you’re in a position of leadership, the act of managing them is probably up to you. Here are a few of those less obvious risks that come to mind: Project Risk : From the time a project is launched there are many factors — or risks — that might cause the project to be over budget, late, or unsuccessful in some other way. As a project leader you need to continually think through the risks that might endanger a project, focusing on how to get around them or limit their impact. Reputational Risk : Companies derive great value from their reputations both at a brand level and in terms of overall image, but reputations can be easily damaged. Take for example the reputational damage done to Goldman Sachs last year when a single manager arrogantly defended business decisions widely considered antithetical to the firm’s stated concern for its customers. Similarly, managerial inattention to quality standards severely harmed J&J’s reputation for product safety. As a manager you need to be mindful of the risks to your firm’s reputation that stem from your actions. Customer Risk : Customers, both internal and external, are the lifeblood of an organization. If they don’t want your product, service, or information, then you’re out of business. Therefore you have a big stake in your customers’ success and need to be aware of the risks that they face. This means doing more than just providing what’s asked for — but proactively looking for other ways to add value. There are undoubtedly many other types of risk that every leader needs to manage — staffing or skill gap risks (what happens if we lose some key people?); budgetary risks (how do we get our work done if the budget is cut?); supplier risks (how do I cover a shortage of key materials?); and many more. The often-unrecognized part of the manager’s job is to identify these risks and prepare for them should they occur. And that goes for unanticipated positive developments as well, for example how to cope with a sudden surge in orders. Yet at the same time, one of the recurring themes for managers these days is the need to learn how to take risks, which may seem contradictory to the notion of managing them. But in many ways the thought processes for each are the same. To take risks effectively you need to anticipate the possible impacts of your actions, and then make a conscious decision about whether to go forward or not, or to go forward in a way that will reduce negative consequences. Perhaps one way of learning how to take risks is to be more conscious about the built-in risk management aspects of your job. If you improve your ability to identify and mitigate the ongoing business risks, it should give you more confidence in dealing with the personal risks required for innovation and working outside the box. To what extent do you consider yourself a risk manager? Cross-posted from Harvard Business Online

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EU: Greece Debt Restructuring ‘Not Part Of Our Strategy’

May 2, 2011

BRUSSELS (AP) — The EU’s top economic affairs official says a restructuring of Greece’s massive debt is not on the table. Monetary and Economic Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said Monday that a debt restructuring for the struggling country “is not part of our strategy and will not be.” Rehn said proponents of restructuring — cutting the total amount of money Greece owes or giving it more time to repay — appear to be unaware of the risks to overall financial stability such a move would entail. European officials have warned that a restructuring of Greece’s debt could lead to panic on financial markets similar to the turbulence following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 and drag down banks and other struggling eurozone countries.

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Renny McPherson: Tech Startups: Turn The U.S. Military Into Your Client

April 26, 2011

This post was co-written with Matt McKnight and Brett Gibson. The U.S. defense and intelligence communities have traditionally been difficult markets to engage. For this reason, most early stage entrepreneurs know very little about these organizations as potential partners or clients. This need not be the case. Today, there are changes on the horizon that endeavor to make government markets more accessible and easier to understand. As a country, we are entering an era of flat security budgets which will drive a necessity for less-expensive commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) solutions, thereby benefitting innovative young companies. There is a significant effort underway to modernize the IT acquisition cycle, and the government is reevaluating the rules governing the purchase of items like Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) products. Procurement officials are working hard to ensure that new products are not treated in the same manner as big-ticket items like ships and airplanes as many are now. Further, defense and intelligence organizations are focusing massive resources on the persistent and growing cyber-threat, and this will require continued engagement with best-in-class private sector companies. With all that said, and despite potentially positive changes on the horizon, government work can be difficult and dangerous for small businesses who don’t understand the risks that will still exist. As military and intelligence officers and entrepreneurs, we submit this series of notes as a short starter guide for approaching military and intelligence markets in a way that can effectively turn the government into your client. This project is built on our frustration with the lack of access to technology innovation during our time in the military. We wanted to better understand this challenge so we conducted over 25 interviews in the past few months with industry experts to develop recommendations for innovative companies to approach these markets and design and deliver better products to servicemen and women. Based on these conversations with entrepreneurs, government acquisition officials, intelligence and defense professionals, venture investors, and the private equity community, we draw out areas that are most pertinent to entrepreneurs as they begin to look into working with the government. These topics, discussed in detail below, are: Know what is happening in the macro defense/intelligence environment and apply those dynamics to your organizational approach; Target specific user communities and understand what they need; Know what “color” of money you are best positioned to receive; Understand how the government thinks about acquisitions and; Realize you must dedicate resources to this effort. The government really does want to help entrepreneurs. Government acquisition programs can be disorganized and difficult to engage with and contracts are sometimes written by a government customer that does not know the technical scope of the service they are requesting, there is high turnover within the system as military and government personnel work in two to five year intervals in most jobs, and funding is largely dependent on fiscal year cycles. All these factors can contribute to inconsistent and unpredictable contracting cycles. The defense and intelligence communities are aware of these problems, and they are working hard to fix them. Being sure to understand the risks, we believe change is coming and that it is worth the effort for small companies to begin thinking of the government as a clear distribution channel. Even today, a variety of innovative technology transfer organizations funded by the U.S. government are seeking to reduce the friction involved with the traditional contracting structure. We will highlight some resources in the appendix to this article, but entrepreneurs should research In-Q-Tel, OnPoint, the Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) and Small Business Technology Transfer (STTR) grant programs, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), and the Intelligence Advanced Research Products Agency (IARPA) to seek opportunity in this space. Now is an opportune time for entrepreneurs and technology firms to engage with the government customer. In response to increased demands for innovative technology, the defense and intelligence communities are beginning to work more quickly to develop solutions that are flexible and agile. This shift is changing the way defense and IC companies serve their customers, collaborate with partners, and take ideas and solutions to market. Further, a relatively untapped market for Silicon Valley firms, the environment for large strategic defense contractors making purchases of small companies active in these emerging growth areas will likely heat up over the next two to four years. Technology start-ups that have traditionally avoided the government as a market are potentially missing a huge opportunity to leverage an important distribution channel that provides both access to funding and an immediate stamp of legitimacy for emerging products. We will soon post an in-depth explanation on the first five things to know when you start looking for government funding. This post was co-written with Matt McKnight and Brett Gibson. Matt, a former Marine Corps intelligence officer, is currently attending the joint degree program at the Harvard Business School and Kennedy School of Government. Among other pursuits, he consults for the Mayflower Strategy Group. Brett, a former Army officer and second-year student at HBS, will be joining LivingSocial in Washington DC after graduation.

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Forex: Markets Prepare for a Week of Notable Event Risks

February 28, 2011

Forex: Markets Prepare for a Week of Notable Event Risks

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Video: Riksbank’s Wickman-Parak Warns Against Keeping Low Rates

January 21, 2011

Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) — Swedish central bank Deputy Governor Barbro Wickman-Parak talks about the risks of keeping interest rates low for too long. She spoke with Bloomberg’s Adam Ewing in Stockholm yesterday.

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Sterling Remains in Bearish Trend, Increasing Downside Risks

January 3, 2011

Sterling Remains in Bearish Trend, Increasing Downside Risks

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Sterling Finding Support at Former Congestion, Increasing Upside Risks

December 30, 2010

Sterling Finding Support at Former Congestion, Increasing Upside Risks

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Sterling Finding Support at Former Congestion, Increasing Upside Risks

December 30, 2010

Sterling Finding Support at Former Congestion, Increasing Upside Risks

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Swiss Franc Strength Risks SNB Intervention, British Pound Searches For Support

December 28, 2010

Swiss Franc Strength Risks SNB Intervention, British Pound Searches For Support

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AUD/USD Faces Downside Risks with Failure at Channel Bound

December 9, 2010

AUD/USD Faces Downside Risks with Failure at Channel Bound

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The Risks of a Short-Risk Range of Trades Pays Off

November 23, 2010

The Risks of a Short-Risk Range of Trades Pays Off

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Japanese Yen Tests 23.6% Fib, Risks For New Zealand Dollar Reversal Materialize

November 22, 2010

Japanese Yen Tests 23.6% Fib, Risks For New Zealand Dollar Reversal Materialize

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Fed Officials Raises Doubts Over New $600B Program

November 8, 2010

WASHINGTON — A Federal Reserve official with close ties to Chairman Ben Bernanke expressed doubts Monday about whether the Fed’s new $600 billion bond-purchase program would succeed in boosting the economy. Kevin Warsh, a Fed governor, also warned of “significant risks” associated with the program, including the potential for triggering excessive inflation later on. The Fed’s program, announced last week, is intended to push interest rates on loans even lower than they are now. The Fed hopes cheaper loans will spur Americans to borrow and spend more. A stronger economy could, in turn, prompt companies to hire more and invigorate the economy. But Warsh said he doubted the program will have “significant” or “durable benefits” for the economy. He made the comments in a speech to the annual meeting of the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association in New York. Despite his reservations, Warsh was among 10 Fed officials who voted for the $600 billion program. The sole dissent came from Thomas Hoenig, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kanas City. Warsh’s comments point to the uneasiness about the risks the central bank is taking with the new program – even among some Fed officials who supported it. Warsh, a Bernanke lieutenant, has never dissented from a Fed vote. Warsh warned that the Fed might have to reconsider its program if the dollar continues to fall or if commodity prices continue to rise, raising inflation across the economy. The Fed last week said it will monitor the effect of the bond-buying program on the economy. It left the door open to scaling back the purchases if the economy grows more than expected or if high inflation becomes too much of a threat. On the other hand, the Fed indicated it would boost its purchases if economic conditions weakened. “The Federal Reserve is not a repair shop for broken fiscal, trade or regulatory policies,” Warsh said. “Given what ails us, additional monetary policy measures are, at best, poor substitutes for more powerful pro-growth policies.” Warsh suggested that Congress reform the tax code to provide more incentives for businesses to step up investment. He indicated that such an approach is a more effective way to strengthen the economy. Taking a different stance, James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, argued in a speech Monday in New York that the “benefits outweigh the risks.” He also voted for the $600 billion program last week. Bullard said he worries that the weak economy might lead to deflation – a destructive drop in the prices of goods and services, wages and in the values of homes and stocks. The Fed’s bond-buying program should help prevent any deflationary forces from taking hold, he said. Bullard did acknowledge that the program risks spurring too-high inflation. With the Fed’s efforts to stimulate growth, its balance sheet now stands at $2.3 trillion. That’s nearly triple its amount before the recession. Adding the new bond holdings will push it to nearly $3 trillion. Hoenig and Warsh say they worry that the vast sums the Fed is pumping into the economy could unleash inflation. Bernanke, though, has argued that such fears are overblown. He says he’s confident the Fed can soak up all the money once the economy is on firmer footing – before inflation gets out of control. During the 2008 financial crisis, Warsh worked with Bernanke to craft programs to get credit – the economy’s oxygen – to flow again. Banks had essentially stopped lending to each other and to their customers, helping plunge the economy deeper into recession. Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, who took part in the Fed’s discussions last week but isn’t a voting member, called the $600 billion program “wrong medicine” for what ails the economy. Fisher, who made his comments in a speech in San Antonio, said he worries that the Fed looks as though it’s printing money to pay for the federal government’s debt. And he frets that the plan could lead to new bubbles in the prices of commodities, stocks and other assets. “Financial speculation and excess … is beginning to raise its hoary head,” he said.

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Video: Lea Sees U.K. Spending Cuts as ‘Risk’ to Weak Recovery

October 21, 2010

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) — Ruth Lea, an economic adviser at Arbuthnot Banking Group Plc, talks about the U.K. government’s public spending cuts and the risks posed to the economy. She speaks with Bloomberg’s Andrea Catherwood on Bloomberg Television’s “The Pulse.”

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Weighing the Risks and Rewards of a Long Dollar Position as Risk Trends and Chinese GDP Loom

October 20, 2010

Weighing the Risks and Rewards of a Long Dollar Position as Risk Trends and Chinese GDP Loom

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Swedish Inflation Data on Tap; Risks for Relative Weakness

October 12, 2010

Swedish Inflation Data on Tap; Risks for Relative Weakness

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Bankers Agree To New Global Rules Designed To Prevent Future Financial Crisis

September 12, 2010

BASEL, Switzerland — Global financial regulators on Sunday agreed on new rules designed to strengthen bank finances and rein in excessive risk-taking to help prevent another crisis. Banks will be forced to hold more and safer kinds of capital to offset the risks they take lending money and trading securities, which should make them more resistant to financial shocks such as those of the last several years. European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet, chairman of the committee of central bankers and bank supervisors that worked on the new rules, called the agreement “a fundamental strengthening of global capital standards.” “Their contribution to long-term financial stability and growth will be substantial,” Trichet said in a statement. U.S. officials including Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke in a joint statement called the new standards a “significant step forward in reducing the incidence and severity of future financial crises Some banks have protested however that the new rules may hurt their profitability and cause them to reduce the lending that fuels economic growth, possibly dampening a global economic recovery. Representatives of major central banks, including the ECB and the U.S. Federal Reserve, agreed to the deal at a meeting in Basel, Switzerland, on Sunday. The deal still has to be presented to leaders of the Group of 20 forum of rich and developing countries at a meeting in November and ratified by national governments before it comes into force. The agreement, known as Basel III, is seen as a cornerstone of the global financial reforms proposed by governments following the credit crunch and subsequent economic downturn caused by risky banking practices. Earlier this year the Brussels-based European Banking Federation warned that the new global rules forcing banks to put aside more capital could keep the eurozone economy in or close to recession through 2014. The federation said its analysis of proposed new Basel III banking standards would limit eurozone banks’ credit growth and profits, hurt the economy and prevent the creation of up to 5 million jobs in the 16 nations that use the euro. Under the agreement, banks will have six years starting Jan. 1, 2013, to progressively increase their capital reserves. Under current rules banks have to hold back at least 4 percent of their balance sheet to cover their risks. Starting in 2013, this reserve – known as tier 1 capital – will have to rise to 4.5 percent, reaching 6 percent in 2019. In addition, banks will be required to keep an emergency reserve known as a “conservation buffer” of 2.5 percent. In total, the amount of rock-solid reserves each bank is expected to have by the end of the decade will be 8.5 percent of its balance sheet. Already one bank has cited the new rules as a reason for its plans to tap the market for billions of euros in new capital. Earlier Sunday, Germany’s biggest bank, Deutsche Bank AG, announced plans to raise at least euro9.8 billion ($12.4 billion) in a capital increase. The planned issue of 308.6 million new common shares is meant primarily to cover the consolidation of Postbank, “but will also support the existing capital base to accommodate regulatory changes and business growth,” Deutsche Bank said. It did not elaborate. Stung by the experience of having to bail out some ailing banks to avoid wider economic collapse, regulators also agreed a number of other measures to shore up the stability of financial institutions: _ Countries will be able to demand that banks build up a further reserve during good times amounting to up to 2.5 percent of their common equity. This “countercyclical buffer” is to help avoid excessive lending during periods of economic boom. _ Another measure aimed at preventing banks from overstretching themselves is the introduction of a leverage ratio of 3 percent. Leverage, or borrowing to invest elsewhere, boosts returns but can backfire catastrophically if an investment declines. Some European banks had objected to this, arguing that the measure unfairly penalizes small lenders with relatively safe credit portfolios. _ Regulators also agreed to continue working on additional safeguards for “systemically important banks” – those that could bring down entire economies if they collapse. ____ Associated Press writers Martin Crutsinger in Washington, Frank Jordans in Geneva and Geir Moulson in Berlin contributed to this report.

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Video: Bloomberg’s Pettypiece Discusses Abbott Dissolving Stent: Video

September 9, 2010

Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) — Bloomberg’s Shannon Pettypiece talks with Mark Crumpton about Abbott Laboratories’ experimental dissolving heart stent to treat chest pains and the outlook for competing products. Abbott’s stent is the size of a spring in a ballpoint pen and is designed to disappear without causing clots or other risks linked to metal models. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Wallace Turbeville: The Murky Realm of (Derivatives) Clearing

August 9, 2010

Matt Taibbi’s latest article in Rolling Stone appropriately characterized the financial reform act as neither an “FDR-style, paradigm-shifting reform, nor a historic assault on free enterprise.” While generally describing the act as a “cop out,” he identified the Fed audit requirement and the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau as positive developments. But he viewed the requirement that many derivatives be cleared as “the biggest win of all.” Alas, Matt may have been too generous, or at least premature. Mandating clearing was a convenient and simple approach for Congress. The idea was to shift the basic derivatives trading risks in an appreciable percentage of the market away from the banks to reduce systemic risk. The problem is that very few people are equipped to understand just how the mandate might work in practice. How much of the market? What are the consequences? I have not seen evidence that anyone on the government’s side can answer these questions effectively. This is not intended to demean anyone’s intellect. Clearing theory is complicated and arcane. It was always a backwater of finance and was taken care of by people at the clearinghouses and in the back offices of the banks. Clearinghouses were largely allowed to regulate themselves through a process of self certification. This limited the Commodity Future’s Trading Commmison’s practical involvement with the markets. Then clearing became the centerpiece of derivatives reform. We decided to concentrate the most dangerous financial risks in the galaxy in a couple of organizations. As fate would have it, I am one of the few people around who knows something about the clearing business and theory and is not employed by an investment bank or clearinghouse. At the end of my career on Wall Street, I was hired to perform a financial autopsy of the special purpose derivatives clearinghouse set up by California as part of an innovative power market structure. It had failed in the state’s power crisis of 2001-02 . Observing the tremendous systemic risk generated by using conventional clearing techniques for all but straightforward derivatives, I embarked on a seven year quest. I formed a company that designed a mathematical, IT and legal structure to provide a transparent and orderly system to manage the risks of those derivatives which shouldn’t be cleared conventionally. Sign up for weekly ND20 highlights, mind-blowing stats, event alerts, and reading/film/music recs . Imagine my surprise when the banks decided against using the system. They preferred taking advantage of the opaque and chaotic bi-lateral derivatives market. The profit potential of the shadowy chaos outweighed efficiency, transparency and sensible risk management. At least I can claim to have been ahead of the times. There are two dangerous forces at work in the endeavor to push derivatives into clearinghouses: 1) Concentrating risks only makes sense if the risks associated with the cleared derivatives can be adequately managed. There is no way to collect enough collateral to cover all potential losses if a derivatives trader defaults. The credit risk embedded in a derivative is, by definition, limitless. Clearinghouses use statistics to measure probable losses. They will require sufficient collateral so long as the statistical analysis reflects reality. The further a type of derivative strays from the standard, liquid markets, the less valid is the statistical measurement of risk. It appears that most people involved with the reform legislation thought “unclearable” transactions were only one-off deals with non-standard contractual terms. The far greater issue concerns commodity classes and financial indices for which statistical risk measurement is unreliable. Historical market data may be too meager or the daily volume may make predicted prices “untransactable.” For certain classes of derivatives, statistical risk measurement is simply impossible, not just unreliable. One might think that clearinghouses would only take on these types of derivatives if the risk of doing so were prudent. One would be wrong. A byproduct of financial deregulation is fierce competition among a handful of clearinghouses. Profit depends on volume. Even before the crisis, competition had already pushed clearinghouses to the edge of prudence and beyond. We cannot assume that clearinghouses will be rational or that the government, so invested in clearing as an answer to the derivatives dilemma, will enforce prudence. Sophisticated and well-capitalized banks recently evaporated because they transacted business that, in retrospect, made no sense. Why not clearinghouses? The risk is that we revisit the world of “Too Big to Fail.” 2) Dealer banks have enormous influence over clearinghouses because they can control volume. Of the two major US clearinghouses, the IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) and Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), ICE is more susceptible. After all, the banks created ICE, largely to compete with CME. But CME is under bank influence as well. ICE and CME raced to clear credit default swaps after the market collapse in September 2008. The ICE effort was successful, in part because the special purpose clearinghouse it set up agreed to give the banks a 49.9% share of the revenues. CME naively created a structure with a trading feature attached, assuming that real-time CDS price transparency would be an attractive add-on. The transparency feature angered the dealer banks, which were already inclined to prefer the ICE structure for obvious reasons. The dealers have largely declined to support CME’s massively expensive effort. Privately, CME has vowed never again to take on a project that the dealer banks don’t support. Clearinghouses may take on derivatives imprudently, but the banks may use their influence to limit clearing. These do not balance one another. The banks might well support clearing of some risky derivatives and, at the same time, use their influence to resist clearing of other derivatives which should be cleared. These pitfalls can be avoided. Regulatory implementation and oversight can establish defenses. However, the process must aggressively challenge conventional notions of how clearinghouses work. Most of all, the regulators and proponents of reform have to be aware that the banks and clearinghouses are not necessarily friends. The banks will try to use their superior knowledge, resources and influence to craft a structure that allows them to continue business as usual. I despair that there is no practical counterbalance to the banks, such as AFR and other public interest groups that were so effective during the legislative process. It turns out that this part of financial reform is a marathon, not a sprint. Cross-posted from New Deal 2.0 .

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Avandia: GlaxoSmithKline Accused Of Covering Up Heart Risks Of Diabetes Pill (VIDEO)

July 13, 2010

GlaxoSmithKlein hid the fact that their drug, Avandia, caused heart risks for 11 years, according to the New York Times . Avandia was once a huge seller for GSK, but its potential ties to heart attacks caused the FDA to do a 700-page review of the drug ahead of a meeting that will decide whether or not it will continue to be sold. The company reportedly knew the risks of the drug as early as 1999, but declined to make their information public for fear of losing millions. WATCH:

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Gulf Oil Spill: Victims Fund Chief Pledges Fast Payments

June 21, 2010

NEW ORLEANS — The administrator of a $20 billion fund to compensate Gulf oil spill victims pledged Monday to speed payment of claims as a federal judge considered whether to lift a six-month moratorium on new deepwater drilling. Kenneth Feinberg, who has been tapped by the White House to run the fund, said many people are in desperate financial straits and need immediate relief. “We want to get these claims out quicker,” he said. “We want to get these claims out with more transparency.” Feinberg, who ran the claim fund set up for victims of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, said BP has paid out over $100 million so far. Various estimates place total claims so far in excess of $600 million. BP said it has spent $2 billion fighting the spill for the last two months and compensating victims, with no end in sight. It’s likely to be at least August before crews finish two relief wells that are the best chance of stopping the flow of oil. The British oil giant released its latest tally of response costs, including $105 million paid out so far to 32,000 claimants. That figure does not include the $20 billion fund BP PLC last week agreed to set up for residents and businesses hurt by the spill. Also Monday, the government sent BP a $51.4 million bill for the response effort. BP has already paid two other bills totaling $70.9 million. Shares of BP, which have lost about half their value since the April 20 oil rig disaster that killed 11 workers, fell nearly 3 percent Monday in New York trading to $30.86. The rig was owned by Transocean Ltd. but run by BP. BP chief executive Tony Hayward canceled a scheduled Tuesday appearance at a London oil conference, citing his commitment to the Gulf relief effort. The last-minute pullout followed stinging criticism of Hayward’s attendance at a yacht race on the Isle of Wight off the coast of southern England on Saturday. President Barack Obama’s administration has also been struggling to show it is responding forcefully to the spill, which has gushed anywhere from 68 million to 126 millions gallons of oil into the Gulf. As part of that effort, the Interior Department halted the approval of any new permits for deepwater drilling and suspended drilling at 33 existing exploratory wells in the Gulf. But a lawsuit filed by Hornbeck Offshore Services of Covington, La., claims the government arbitrarily imposed the moratorium without any proof that the operations posed a threat. Hornbeck says the moratorium could cost Louisiana thousands of jobs and millions of dollars in lost wages. After hearing two hours of arguments Monday in New Orleans federal court, Judge Martin Feldman said he will decide by Wednesday whether to overturn the moratorium. Plaintiffs’ attorney Carl Rosenblum said the six-month suspension of drilling work could prove more economically devastating than the spill itself. “This is an unprecedented industrywide shutdown. Never before has the government done this,” Rosenblum told the judge Monday. Government lawyers said the Interior Department has demonstrated that industry regulators need more time to study the risks of deepwater drilling and identify ways to make it safer. “The safeguards and regulations in place on April 20 did not create a sufficient margin of safety,” said Justice Department attorney Guillermo Montero. Feldman asked a government lawyer why the Interior Department decided to suspend deepwater drilling after the rig explosion when it didn’t bar oil tankers from Alaskan waters after the Exxon Valdez spill in 1989 or take similar actions in the wake of other industrial accidents. “The Deepwater Horizon blowout was a game-changer,” Montero said. “It really illustrates the risks that are inherent in deepwater drilling.” Feldman asked Rosenblum if it’s true that a recent Securities and Exchange Commission filing by Hornbeck suggests “basically things are pretty good” for the company and it can survive the moratorium. Rosenblum said the full impact of the shutdown cannot be calculated. “Thousands of businesses will be affected,” he said. “These dominoes are falling as we speak.” Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal’s office filed a brief supporting the plaintiffs’ suit. A lawyer for the state told Feldman that the federal government did not consult Louisiana officials before imposing the moratorium, in violation of federal law. Catherine Wannamaker, a lawyer for several environmental groups that support the moratorium, said six months is a reasonable time for drilling to be suspended while the government studies the risks and regulations governing the industry. “The risks here are new,” she said. Government lawyers said the plaintiffs haven’t seen much of the data that served as the basis for the Interior Department’s decision to suspend drilling operations. Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar “wants to be sure deepwater drilling is as safe as we all thought it was on the day before the incident on April 20,” said government lawyer Brian Collins. U.S. District Judge Nancy Atlas in Houston listened to Monday’s hearing over the telephone. Atlas is presiding over a similar case against the Interior Department filed by Diamond Offshore Co., which operates a fleet of drilling rigs. Along the coast Monday, some cleanup workers reported progress. On Barataria Bay off the coast of Louisiana, thick globs of oil that washed onto marshy islands a week ago had disappeared, leaving a mass of stained bushes and partly yellowed grasses. Blackened lengths of boom surrounded the islands, which were still teeming with brown pelicans, gulls and other seabirds, some with visible signs of oil on their plumage. Nearby, shrimp boats that have been transformed into skimmers hauled absorbent booms across the water’s surface, collecting some of the remaining oil. Crews aboard Navy and Coast Guard boats teamed with local fishermen using booms to funnel oil into a vessel and haul it offshore. This is the area’s new economy – dependent as ever on the sprawling bay, but now those who made their living harvesting its bounty are focused on its healing. “It looks 10 times better than it did a week ago,” said Carey O’Neil, 42, a commercial fisherman idled by the spill who now provides tours of the damaged areas for media and government observers in his 23-foot boat anchored in Grand Isle. “But what impact will this have for the future – two, three, four, even 10 years? That’s what worries me.” The number of oil-soaked birds in the area is down significantly, from 60 or 70 a day at the triage center on Grand Isle to more like seven or eight, said Steve Martarano, a spokesman for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. “We’ve been sending 55 boats a day out pretty much since day one, when the oil hit this area, and so we feel like we’ve really made inroads,” he said. ___ Associated Press writers John Flesher and Ramit Plushnick-Masti in Barataria, La., and Robert Barr in London contributed to this report.

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Lehman Probe Searches Emails For Terms Like ‘Stupid,’ ‘Breach,’ And ‘Big Trouble’

June 11, 2010

June 11 (Bloomberg) — “Just between us,” it may be “stupid” to use certain words in e-mail to “discuss” the “big trouble” you might face if you’re ever investigated for financial wrongdoing or a subsequent cover-up. Those are some of the terms that examiner Anton R. Valukas searched for in 34 million pages of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. e-mails and reports, to find out who knew what about the risks that drove the fourth-largest securities firm into bankruptcy, according to his 2,200-page study on the collapse

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JPMorgan’s 64% Note Tied to Tivo Stock Shows Risks of Reverse Convertibles

May 17, 2010

By Zeke Faux May 17 (Bloomberg) — A JPMorgan Chase & Co. reverse- convertible note paying 64 percent annualized interest plunged in value on May 14, three days after being sold, showing the risks of these products usually bought by individual investors. The structured notes offered 10.7 percent in interest payments over their two-month term and a return of principal, as long as shares of TiVo Inc. didn’t fall more than 25 percent, according to a prospectus. TiVo dropped 42 percent on May 14 after an adverse court ruling, triggering a provision that will leave investors holding the possibly depressed stock at maturity. Banks including JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and Barclays Plc sold $656 million of reverse convertibles in the U.S. last month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The securities, which combine features of bonds and stock options, are often sold to individuals who don’t understand the risks, said Jake Zamansky , a New York-based attorney who represents investors. “It’s being sold as a bond, an income-generating product, and I don’t think it’s being explained to people that you can get stuck with the stock,” the securities lawyer at Zamansky & Associates said in a telephone interview on May 14. He has represented investors in lawsuits related to the products. Justin Perras , a JPMorgan spokesman, declined to comment. The prospectus’s listing of risk considerations includes the statements “your investment in the notes may result in a loss” and “your protection may terminate on any day.” “Protection” refers to the feature where the principal is returned unless, on any day, the stock closes 25 percent below its initial price. Receiving Stock Because that level was breached, noteholders will receive at maturity as many shares of the stock as their investment would have bought at the initial price, hence the name “reverse convertible.” “Individuals should be buying reverse convertibles on stocks that they otherwise would consider owning outright,” said Keith Styrcula , chairman of the New York-based Structured Products Association, in a telephone interview today. Investors in JPMorgan’s notes could make money if TiVo’s share price recovers. The stock was up 5.8 percent , to $10.75, at 1:09 p.m. today in trading on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange, compared with $16.88 when the notes were issued. JPMorgan sold $800,000 of the TiVo-linked products, it said in the prospectus. The 64 percent interest rate was the highest offered on any reverse convertible in months, according to Craig McCann , a Fairfax, Virginia-based litigation consultant who’s preparing a study of the market. ‘Ridiculous’ Commission The price of the securities included a 1.75 percent sales commission, of which JPMorgan received 0.75 percentage point, according to the prospectus. That’s 10.5 percent on an annualized basis, which is much higher than the commission charged on comparable investments, according to Seth Lipner , a Garden City, New York-based attorney. “A 10.5 percent commission is ridiculous,” Lipner said in a telephone interview on May 14. “The cost would be much lower” for investors to make the same kind of market bet using various options rather than reverse convertibles, he said. Structured notes generally include other costs, such as to offset risks related to the security, as well as a profit for the issuer. The built-in costs of the TiVo-linked note were limited to the 1.75 percent commission, according to the prospectus. Each $1,000 TiVo note was worth $945 on the day it was offered, according to Bloomberg’s reverse-convertible pricing model. McCann said his model came up with an initial value of $960. Prices generated by the models vary based on the source of market data and assumptions about liquidity and volatility. Court Case TiVo’s decline came after an appeals court said on May 14 it would reconsider the company’s victory over Dish Network Corp. and EchoStar Corp. in a digital-video recording patent case. Dish and EchoStar had asked on April 5 for the full panel of the appeals court to rehear the case. “I don’t think something with a major development about to take place, positive or negative, should be put into a reverse convertible,” Zamansky said. “There’s just too much volatility.” JPMorgan’s prospectus states that TiVo’s stock “has experienced significant fluctuations.” It doesn’t mention the pending patent case. Many investors who lost money on reverse convertibles have filed arbitration claims against their brokers, according to Zamansky. The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, a trade group, said in a February letter to its members that reverse convertibles can be “difficult for retail investors and registered representatives to evaluate.” Brokers’ sales pitches must be “fair and balanced,” it said. Brokers often market reverse convertibles as a way for individuals to take advantage of the sophisticated derivatives trading that banks use, according to Chris Vernon, a Naples, Florida-based attorney who represents structured-note investors. “The pitch with these complex structured products is that this is what the big boys are doing and now you can do it too,” Vernon said in a telephone interview on May 14. “But the big boys aren’t paying 10 percent-plus commission per year.” To contact the reporter on this story: Zeke Faux in New York at zfaux@bloomberg.net .

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Record High for Gold as Sovereign Credit Risks Survive EU Rescue Effort

May 12, 2010

Record High for Gold as Sovereign Credit Risks Survive EU Rescue Effort

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Fed’s Kocherlakota: Financial Reform Bill Can’t End Bailouts Or ‘Too Big To Fail’

May 10, 2010

Despite declarations from President Obama , his top aides and Democratic leadership that the pending financial reform bill in the Senate will forever end taxpayer bailouts of large banks, a top Federal Reserve official argues the bill will do no such thing, calling bailouts “inevitable.” In a Monday speech, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Narayana Kocherlakota said that since bailouts are inevitable — and that no legislation can completely end the future possibility of them — policymakers should instead levy a tax on firms to build up a fund that would eventually fund those bailouts. Referencing the Senate bill and the House legislation that passed in December, Kocherlakota said: “[B]oth bills significantly understate the extreme economic forces that lead to bailouts during financial crises. Indeed, the opening language of the Senate bill actually declares that it will end taxpayer bailouts. This objective is laudable. “But it is not achievable — and thinking that it is can lead to poor choices about the structure of financial regulation,” he said in his prepared remarks. “[N]o legislation can completely eliminate bailouts. Any new financial regulatory structure must keep this reality in mind.” Because “bailouts will inevitably happen,” Kocherlakota instead calls for the creation of a tax — one that would have the effect of limiting bailouts by changing financial firms’ incentives. In short, by taxing firms based on the risks they pose to the financial system — particularly the risk that would ultimately be borne by taxpayers when they’re bailed out — firms will then choose “the socially optimal level of risk.” In other words, faced with decreased profits due to extra taxes, firms will dial back the risks they take. “[K]nowing bailouts are inevitable, financial institutions fail to internalize all the risks that their investment decisions impose on society,” Kocherlakota said. “Economists would say that bailouts thereby create a risk ‘externality.’ “At least some big banks did make socially undesirable choices. But — in large part — they were led to make those choices by incentives within the tax and regulatory system. Parts of these incentives were shaped by the ultimately correct expectation that some bailouts would take place in the event of a financial crisis. These government guarantees — no matter how implicit they might have been — created an incentive for financial institutions to make socially undesirable choices. Taxation is a useful way to correct this incentive.” The reason why policymakers will always bail out financial firms, Kocherlakota argues, is that banks and other financial firms rely on short-term debt and deposits. These are exactly the kind of funds that are prone to “self-fulfilling crises of confidence that economists term ‘runs.’” Because “governments cannot risk such systemic collapse… policymakers inevitably resort to bailouts even when they have explicitly resolved, in the strongest possible terms, to let firms fail,” he said. “I do not believe that better resolution mechanisms will end bailouts,” he said, an indirect reference to the Senate bill authored by Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd (D-Conn.). “Indeed, I’m led to make a prediction. No matter what mechanisms we legislate now to impose losses on creditors, Congress, or some agency acting on Congress’ behalf, will block them when we next face a financial crisis.” So instead of financial firms taking appropriate risks, they take outsized ones because they know they’ll always be bailed out. And their creditors, knowing they’ll always be bailed out, won’t charge the banks a premium on their debt because they know there isn’t much risk. “Now, imagine for a moment that we live in a world without bailouts, so that the government does not provide debt guarantees or deposit insurance. If a financial institution decided to increase the risk level of its investment portfolio, its debt holders and depositors would face a greater risk of loss. By way of compensation for that greater risk, they’d demand a higher yield. As a result, in the absence of government guarantees, financial institutions would find it more costly to obtain debt financing for highly risky investments than for less risky ones. This effect, on the margin, would curb a firm’s appetite for risk. It would have an especially powerful effect on highly leveraged financial institutions, because high debt-to-asset levels mean higher risk of being unable to fulfill debt obligations. “But now return to the real world, with deposit insurance and debt guarantees, and the inevitability of government bailouts. Even if they only kick in during financial crises, these guarantees change this natural market relationship between risk and cost. The depositors and debt holders are now partially insulated from increases in investment risk, and so do not demand a sufficiently high yield from riskier firms. Financial institutions take on too much risk, because they are no longer deterred from doing so by the high costs of debt finance. And this missing deterrence is especially relevant for firms that are highly leveraged, because they should be paying out especially high yields on their debts. “In this way, the expectation of bailouts leads to too much capital being allocated toward overly risky ventures. These misallocations of capital don’t create the collective mistakes in predictions that generate financial crises. But the misallocations do mean that society loses a lot from those mistakes — a lot more than is efficient. That’s why a tax is necessary, Kocherlakota argues. “The tax amount exactly equals the extra cost borne by the taxpayers because of bailouts, appropriately adjusted for risk and the time value of money. Knowing that it faces this tax schedule, the firm no longer has an incentive to undertake inefficiently risky investments. Its investment choices will be socially efficient. It is useful to tax a financial institution producing a risk externality, just as it is useful to tax a firm producing a pollution externality. The purpose of the tax in both instances is to ensure that the firm pays the full costs — private and social — of its production decisions,” he said. And there shouldn’t be a cap on the total amount raised either, Kocherlakota said. The House bill calls for a special tax, but it caps it at $150 billion, which he said is “problematic.” The Senate bill recently jettisoned its plans for a tax after opposition from the Obama administration and Wall Street. It would have created a $50 billion fund funded by taxes on the banks.

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Euro-Zone inflation and Unemployment Confirm Risks Balanced, Leaving ECB on Hold.

April 30, 2010

Euro-Zone inflation and Unemployment Confirm Risks Balanced, Leaving ECB on Hold.

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Drillers Risk Deadly Blowouts to Tap Oil, Gas Reservoirs Deeper Undersea

April 23, 2010

By Joe Carroll, Jim Polson and Katarzyna Klimasinska April 23 (Bloomberg) — Energy companies delving miles beneath the seafloor for oil are risking pressure surges like the one this week that may have sparked the deadliest U.S. rig accident in 23 years. Explorers began work on 17 new Gulf of Mexico wells last week in waters deeper than 1,000 feet (305 meters), spurred in part by a tripling in crude prices in the past decade. The threat of pressure surges, or blowouts, that can smash steel equipment and create gushing columns of fire increases as drillers probe deeper, Neal Dingmann , an analyst at Wunderlich Securities, said. U.S. Coast Guard rescuers said hope was fading of finding alive any of the 11 workers missing since an April 20 explosion aboard Transocean Ltd. ’s Deepwater Horizon rig, which the company said may have been caused by a blowout in an 18,000-foot well. The $365 million vessel sank yesterday and left an oil sheen on the water large enough to cover one-fourth of Manhattan. “Offshore drilling has always been high risk, but when you talk about wells going to these kinds of depths, the risks go even higher,” Dingmann said in a telephone interview from Houston. “Once you go anywhere below 10,000 feet, all of a sudden the pressure and temperature become a lot more difficult to contend with.” If the 11 missing workers are declared dead, it would be the worst offshore oil-industry accident in U.S. waters since 1987, when a helicopter crashed into a Forest Oil Corp. platform, killing 14 people, according to a Bloomberg News analysis of data from the U.S. Interior Department’s Minerals Management Service . No Warning Some workers were killed by the explosion on the Deepwater Horizon and others were thrown overboard, according to a lawsuit filed by the family of missing roustabout Shane Roshto against BP and Transocean. Adrian Rose , who oversees Geneva-based Transocean’s quality, health, safety and environment unit, said yesterday that the disaster unfolded with little or no warning. Michael Kersey told reporters in Kenner, Louisiana, that his brother, Jonathan Kersey, was aboard the Deepwater Horizon when it erupted in flames. “He said it was the scariest thing he saw in his life,” Michael Kersey said. Jonathan Kersey, 33, was among those who escaped in a life boat, his brother said. The accident may spur calls for tougher oversight and increased regulation of the drilling industry, as well as raise legal risks for companies. Political Pressure President Barack Obama last month proposed expanding offshore drilling in some U.S. coastal areas. “This accident happened at exactly the wrong time,” Jud Bailey , a Houston-based analyst for Jefferies & Co., said in a telephone interview. “The offshore industry has a good safety record, but this is something environmentalists can grab onto and say, ‘See, this is why you shouldn’t drill.’” Senator Mary L. Landrieu , a Louisiana Democrat, urged the Coast Guard and the Minerals Management Service, which has authority over oil and gas exploration in federal waters, to “conduct a swift and thorough investigation.” “It is critical that these agencies examine what went wrong and the environmental impact this incident has created,” Landrieu said in a statement. Cote de Mer The minerals agency requires energy producers to inspect wells at least every 30 days during exploration work, John Schiller , chief executive officer of Energy XXI (Bermuda) Ltd., said on a November conference call with investors. Energy XXI, along with partners that included Nexen Inc., spent $75 million to bring a June 2007 blowout at the Cote de Mer field in Louisiana under control. A surge of gas in the 22,261-foot well blew through a device known as a blowout preventer, burying the rig floor in six feet of sand, rock and seashells. No one was injured, the company said. Oilfield-equipment makers such as Ametek Inc. and FMC Technologies Inc. are working to develop hardware that can withstand pressures and temperatures in wells that can plunge more than 32,000 feet (9,754 meters) into the Earth’s crust. “The conditions keep getting worse as they go deeper,” said Brian Ainley, director of business development at Ametek’s Chandler Engineering unit in Broken Arrow, Oklahoma. Calculating Risks Some companies aren’t willing to risk the danger of a blowout. Exxon Mobil Corp., the world’s second-largest oil company, abandoned its Blackbeard well in the Gulf of Mexico in 2006 after the company’s engineers became alarmed over the pressure levels and temperatures almost seven miles beneath the seafloor, Dingmann said. McMoRan Exploration Co. obtained control over Blackbeard in 2007 as part of its $1.1 billion acquisition of offshore assets from Newfield Exploration Co., one of Exxon’s partners in the project. McMoRan of New Orleans extended the well almost 3,000 feet deeper than where Exxon left it. James “ Jim Bob ” Moffett, co-chairman of McMoRan, told investors on a January conference call that the risks of dealing with higher-pressure deposits may be worthwhile because those fields have more oil and gas packed into each square yard of rock. Transocean fell 8 cents to $90.29 yesterday in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. BP dropped 11.8 pence to 636.40 pence. To contact the reporters on this story: Joe Carroll in Chicago at Jcarroll8@bloomberg.net ; Jim Polson in New York at jpolson@bloomberg.net ; Katarzyna Klimasinska in Kenner, Louisiana, at kklimasinska@bloomberg.net .

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Goldman Sachs Caveat Emptor Defense Mirrors UBS, Merrill Subprime Lawsuits

April 21, 2010

By William McQuillen and Patricia Hurtado April 21 (Bloomberg) — Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has signaled it will fight a U.S. lawsuit over subprime mortgage instruments the same way Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch unit and UBS AG have challenged similar claims — by invoking the concept of caveat emptor: Latin for buyer beware. The strategy may work. By insisting that purchasers of collateralized debt obligations knew what they were getting into, Goldman Sachs is following a well-traveled path. Both Merrill and UBS won dismissal of similar claims that they misrepresented the risks of such assets by saying the buyers were sophisticated enough to know better. The Securities and Exchange Commission accused Goldman Sachs of creating and selling the CDOs without disclosing that hedge fund Paulson & Co. helped pick the underlying securities and bet against the instrument. Goldman Sachs denied any wrongdoing, saying that it provided “extensive disclosure” to customers about the risks. Goldman Sachs, whose mantra is clients’ interests always come first, has said “these are sophisticated investors who knew what they were buying,” said David Irwin , a former federal prosecutor in private practice in Towson, Maryland. The bank is arguing that the average buyer of this product isn’t some “credit union that didn’t know what it was doing,” he said. Faltering Housing Market In early 2007, as the U.S. housing market began to falter, Goldman Sachs created and sold the CDO vehicle, known as Abacus, linking it to bundles of subprime mortgages whose value would rise or fall depending on whether homeowners paid them off. Billionaire John Paulson ’s firm earned $1 billion on the CDOs and wasn’t accused of wrongdoing by the SEC. The SEC alleged in its April 16 complaint that, had Goldman Sachs customers known Paulson helped choose the securities that formed the basis of the CDO, and that Paulson was betting against them, they might not have bought any. The regulator’s case in Manhattan federal court may hinge on that issue, said lawyer Mark Zauderer of New York’s Flemming Zulack Williamson Zauderer LLC, who isn’t involved in the case. Even if a jury finds the customer would have bought the Goldman Sachs product with knowledge of Paulson’s role, the panel may still find in favor of the SEC if it decides those facts were intentionally hidden, Zauderer said. ‘Sophisticated Investors’ “Goldman certainly can and will argue that the sophisticated investors were perfectly capable of evaluating the quality of securities, regardless of what Paulson’s intentions were in betting against them,” said Zauderer, who helped defend former New York Stock Exchange Chairman Richard Grasso . Grasso successfully challenged a 2004 compensation lawsuit by then New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer . “Whether they did sufficient due diligence or reasonably relied upon what was presented to them” will be an issue, Zauderer said of the CDO’s buyers. Goldman Sachs lawyer Richard Klapper of New York-based Sullivan & Cromwell LLP didn’t return a call seeking comment. The professional savvy of investors who purchase such financial vehicles was cited by a New York state judge as grounds for dismissal earlier this month of fraud claims brought against two Merrill units. In that 2009 suit, Armonk, New York-based bond insurer MBIA Inc. and its LaCrosse Financial Products LLC unit claimed that Merrill had a “deliberate strategy to offload” billions of dollars of “deteriorating” subprime mortgages from July 2006 to March 2007, as homeowner defaults began to soar. Merrill rejected the allegations and denied any wrongdoing. MBIA Lawsuit New York State Supreme Court Justice Bernard Fried in Manhattan dismissed five of six claims brought by MBIA over protection sold against mortgage-debt defaults. Fried, who allowed a breach-of-contract claim to continue, said the credit- default swaps were the product of “intensive negotiations among the parties, whose sophistication and business acumen and experience cannot be overstated.” “MBIA and LaCrosse specifically stated that they were able to evaluate the validity of the CDOs, and were specifically warned that the transaction was appropriate only for sophisticated investors capable of analyzing the risks, including the risk related to the type of collateral involved in the transaction,” the judge wrote in his opinion. MBIA has said it will appeal. Zurich-based UBS used that argument to fight a lawsuit by Hamburg-based HSH Nordbank AG seeking to recover at least $275 million in losses on a portfolio linked to the U.S. subprime-mortgage market. Claims of Trickery HSH alleged that the Swiss bank was able to trick it into making the investment because in 2001, when they were negotiating the deal, HSH was “a regional German bank with little familiarity with international structured finance,” according to its complaint. UBS lawyer Barry Sher called that claim “the babes in the woods defense” during a May 2008 hearing in the case. HSH had done its own credit-linked note transaction a year before entering the UBS contract, Sher said. In separate rulings in 2008 and 2009, New York State Supreme Court Justice Richard Lowe in Manhattan dismissed most of HSH’s claims, including fraud, while allowing others to go forward. Both sides are appealing. “HSH’s reworded claim that it was but a naïve investor in the hands of the more experienced UBS in a world of complex investment rings as unconvincing now as it was in the original complaint,” Lowe said. Risky Mortgage Bets In a third case, JPMorgan Chase & Co. ’s attempt to fend off billionaire Len Blavatnik’s suit blaming his losses on the bank’s risky mortgage bets led to a mixed court ruling. Blavatnik, founder of Access Industries Group, accused the second-largest U.S. bank of stuffing its portfolio with too much subprime-mortgage risk. In December, New York State Supreme Court Justice Melvin L. Schweitzer , also in Manhattan, threw out Blavatnik’s claims of negligence and breach of fiduciary duty. The judge refused to dismiss accusations against the New York-based bank of breach of contract and negligent misrepresentation. “Plaintiff was a passive investor that looked to the expertise and advice of defendants in structuring an investment strategy,” Schweitzer wrote. “Since plaintiff properly has alleged its reliance on these misrepresentations, there is a strong presumption that its reliance was reasonable given the investment management relationship between the parties.” JPMorgan had argued Blavatnik couldn’t state a claim merely by pointing to losses. ‘Reasonable’ Adviser “Whether defendants acted with ‘negligence or willful misconduct’ cannot be assessed by asking what investment decisions a reasonable investment adviser would have made under normal market conditions,” the bank’s lawyers said in court papers. “The relevant question is what a reasonable investment adviser would have done in the face of this historic financial crisis.” Mary Sedarat , a spokeswoman for JPMorgan, declined to comment. If Goldman Sachs made a significant misrepresentation to customers looking to buy the instrument at issue in the SEC lawsuit, it can’t argue that experienced investors should have known what they were getting into, Zauderer said. Goldman Sachs said in a statement responding to the SEC lawsuit that it provided full disclosure about the offering and that its portfolio was marketed solely to sophisticated financial institutions. Failed to Mention The investment bank also argued that the SEC complaint failed to mention that it lost more than $90 million from the transaction, as compared with the $15 million in fees it got. Goldman Sachs said that IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG and ACA Management LLC, two investors in the Abacus product that were identified in the SEC complaint, were aware of the risk associated with the securities and were “among the most sophisticated mortgage investors in the world.” Merrill has mounted a similar, sophisticated investor- defense to a suit brought by Netherlands-based Cooperatieve Centrale Raiffeisen-Boerenleenbank BA , known as Rabobank. As in the Goldman Sachs case, Utrecht-based Rabobank claimed Merrill omitted important information in advising on a CDO tied to subprime mortgages. In that case, also presided over by Judge Fried, the alleged omission was Merrill’s relationship with another client betting against the investment, which resulted in a loss of $45 million. Merrill countered in court papers that Rabobank was aware of the risks, which were disclosed in the transaction documents. The bank should have been responsible for conducting its own due diligence, and shouldn’t have relied on Merrill, the bank said in a court filing last year seeking to dismiss the case. SEC Allegations Attorneys for Rabobank have seized on the SEC’s allegations against Goldman to support their own case. In a filing in state court in Manhattan on the same day the SEC sued Goldman, the Dutch bank drew a parallel between the complaints. Rabobank urged the judge to grant it access to Merrill’s records of how the collateral manager for a synthetic CDO went about selecting investments. Rabobank said the SEC complaint justifies its lawsuit because Merrill is accused of “precisely the same type of fraudulent conduct in the structuring and marketing” of CDOs. Bill Halldin , a Merrill spokesman, rejected Rabobank’s attempt to link its complaint to the Goldman Sachs case, saying on April 16 that the matters are unrelated. Rick Werder, a New York attorney for Blavatnik with Quinn Emanuel Urquhart Oliver & Hedges LLP , said the SEC lawsuit against Goldman Sachs supports a broader government inquiry into the CDO market. “The latest allegations provide further indication that, in the area of mortgage-backed securities, some of our nation’s financial institutions consistently placed their own self- interest ahead of the interests of their customers,” he said. The case is Securities and Exchange Commission v. Goldman Sachs, 10-cv-03229, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan). To contact the reporter on this story: William McQuillen in Washington at bmcquillen@bloomberg.net and; Patricia Hurtado in New York at pathurtado@bloomberg.net .

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Moody’s Risk Committee Disappeared At Height Of Collapse

April 2, 2010

WASHINGTON — As the bottom fell out of the housing market and complex mortgage-backed securities began tanking in 2007, a strange thing happened at Moody’s Investors Service, one of the largest firms that rate bonds for the risks they pose to investors. Moody’s blue-ribbon board of directors stopped receiving key information from an internal committee that was supposed to keep the board informed of risks to the company, a McClatchy investigation has found.

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China Banks May Require Bailouts After Stimulus-Loan Boom, Citigroup Says

March 12, 2010

By Bloomberg News March 13 (Bloomberg) — China may be forced to bail out banks that made loans for local-government projects under the unprecedented stimulus program unleashed in 2008, according to Citigroup Inc. and Northwestern University’s Victor Shih . In a “worst-case scenario,” the non-performing loans of local-government investment vehicles could climb to 2.4 trillion yuan ($350 billion) by 2011, Shen Minggao , Citigroup’s Hong Kong-based chief economist for greater China, said yesterday. “The most likely case is that the Chinese government will engineer a massive financial bailout of the financial sector,” said Shih, a professor who spent months researching borrowing by about 8,000 local government entities. Chinese officials pledged this week to limit the risks posed by the investment vehicles, which circumvent restrictions on local-government borrowing to channel money into stimulus projects. Yan Qingmin, head of the banking regulator’s Shanghai branch, said March 5 that China plans to nullify guarantees provided by local governments for some loans. Citigroup’s Shen said officials may keep monetary policy loose for longer than they should, boosting asset prices and building up overcapacity, to avoid the “squeeze” on investment vehicles that would trigger bad loans and bailouts. “The risk is that inflation or asset bubbles force the government to withdraw their support to local governments much earlier than expected,” he said in a phone interview. Stimulus Policies In Shen’s worst case, commercial banks, lending because of explicit or implicit government guarantees rather than the quality of projects, see 20 percent of lending to the investment vehicles turn bad in 2011. Premier Wen Jiabao is weighing when to exit crisis policies as property prices surge, inflation climbs and exports rebound, highlighting the risk of overheating in the world’s fastest- growing major economy, awash with cash from unprecedented lending in 2009. Shih was more pessimistic than Shen in an interview on Bloomberg Television in Hong Kong yesterday. He said that if the central government stops lending to the entities now, the cost of a bailout may already be “in the neighborhood” of 3 trillion yuan. The academic said that “the only credible action by the central government now is to allow a handful of these entities to go bankrupt — so that the banks know that the central government means business when it says it’s withdrawing guarantees.” ‘Not So Serious’ In contrast, Jia Kang , the head of the research institute of China’s Ministry of Finance, said March 10 that the risks “may not be so serious as some people have claimed.” Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. President Yang Kaisheng said March 7 that the lender had inspected loans it extended to the financing vehicles in 2008 and 2009 and “so far didn’t find many big problems.” Su Ning , a deputy governor at China’s central bank, said March 8 that a “fairly high proportion” of total lending last year went to the funding vehicles. Chinese banks extended a record 9.59 trillion yuan of new loans in 2009. Su sees “a big risk” from local-government guarantees for money borrowed to fund infrastructure projects that may not generate returns, he said in Beijing. The investment entities have played a key role in channeling money to stimulus projects, often for urban development, Citigroup’s Shen said. Zhou’s Concern Central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said March 6 that while “many” of the financing entities have the ability to repay debt, two types cause concern. One uses land as collateral, while the other can’t fully repay, meaning local governments may be liable, leading to “fiscal risks,” he told reporters in Beijing. Regulators believe a few cities and counties may struggle with repayments in coming years because of debt ratios already exceeding 400 percent, a person with knowledge of the matter said in January. The ratio is of year-end outstanding debt to annual disposable fiscal income. Chinese banks had 497 billion yuan of non-performing loans as of Dec. 31, accounting for 1.58 percent of advances, according to the banking regulator. — Paul Panckhurst , Kevin Hamlin , Susan Li. Editors: Lily Nonomiya , Cherian Thomas To contact the reporter on this story: Paul Panckhurst in Beijing at ppanckhurst@bloomberg.net

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Euro Zone Risks Moving Away From Recovery, While U.K. Growth Figures Surprise Markets

February 27, 2010

Euro Zone Risks Moving Away From Recovery, While U.K. Growth Figures Surprise Markets

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Ian Goldin: Only a New Global System Can Handle a World of Explosive Risk

January 8, 2010

The recent financial crisis is the first systemic crisis of the 21st Century. By learning its lessons we cannot only avoid a destabilizing cycle of more acute future financial crises, but also equip the world to handle other looming catastrophes such as climate change, global pandemics and bio-terrorism. One lesson in particular is inescapable — that the world’s governing bodies, from the UN to the World Bank, from the G20 to the IMF, can no longer cope with systemic risks of these kinds. A radical reform of the national and global system is required to ensure that the constantly evolving catastrophic ‘weapons of mass destruction’ are identified before they explode. Otherwise the next decade will see new problems thrown at old and outdated institutions. These institutions have not kept pace with the complexity, innovation and interdependence of the globalized 21st Century world. Unprecedented economic, political and technological changes have come together to create this tidal wave of globalization. Between 1980 and 2005, global foreign investment inflow increased 18 times, real world gross domestic product (GDP) has grown by over a third, and world trade increased sevenfold. The seismic policy shifts of recent decades and pace of innovation has brought wide ranging benefits and is unlikely to be reversed. However, there is an underbelly to integration, which is interdependence and growing systemic risk. Global systemic shocks, such as the recent financial crisis, will become an endemic feature of the next decade. In financial markets between 1998 and 2007, the ‘Golden Decade’, the combination of global integration and computing power saw an explosive growth of sophisticated financial instruments. In the course of a decade, the value of derivative trades grew from being marginal to over $600,000 billion in 2007, ten times global GDP. Integration and new networks greatly increased the robustness of the finance system, but interdependence, complexity and the growing gulf between oversight and market innovators simultaneously made global finance more brittle and fragile. Integration and financial innovation in a deregulated environment created a financial network vulnerable to systemic risk. Governance gaps at all levels of the financial system allowed regulatory arbitrage, bonus gouging, and other corporate governance failures to spiral out of control. These failures are symptomatic of a deeper malaise, which is systemic instability resulting from increased integration and innovation. As the global financial network grew in scale and reach, it also became more interconnected. These increases in connectivity contributed to robustness of the network by spreading risk through securitization, but also rendered the system fragile, raising the potential for risk amplification and contagion. A key feature of the financial crisis, which has lessons for other systemic risks, is that the underlying innovation, integration and interdependency of the network created new and unforeseen systemic vulnerabilities. The failure of financial regulators to appreciate the systemic nature of the risks was exacerbated and informed by a complacent new economic orthodoxy, which saw the markets as rational. While macroeconomists rightly worried about the systemic implications of ‘global imbalances’, there was virtually no focus on the nature of banking or the risks born of economic deregulation. Strict rules are required to reduce systemic risk since there is a ‘tragedy of the commons’ where traders lack the incentive or regulatory framework needed to limit their risk-taking. The national and global regulators had neither the incentive nor the technical capacity to understand the complex underlying systemic risks festering under the rapidly evolving financial instruments. The system was overwhelmed by innovation that sidestepped underwhelming regulation. The double tragedy of the financial ‘commons’, is that over 20,000 global regulators are devoted to managing it. Employed by central banks and supervisory authorities, as well as by the IMF, they failed to see the looming disaster and subsequently could not agree how to avert the meltdown. It took the G20, which has no administrative or executive capacity, to agree a short-term remedy. Although appropriate, the coordinated fiscal stimulus and focus on corporate bonuses have failed to get to the roots of the crisis and distracted attention away from a deeper and more lasting resolution. Fundamental reforms are nowhere in sight and no international supervisory body has made more than vague statements about the radical structural changes needed. The tightening of existing regulations is widely favored, but is unlikely to address the underlying problem. The key questions are whether and how integration and innovation should be managed. Both provide short-term gains, but if the longer-term costs, in terms of systemic failures undermine these gains, and are particularly devastating for the poorer members of society, then there may well be reasons to limit the pace and form of integration and use of new financial instruments. The failure of the best-equipped global governance system, finance, has highlighted the scale and urgency of the challenge of systemic risk. It may be that without the well-established institutional architecture of international economic regimes, other challenges are even more susceptible to systemic risks than that of global finance. This is because in comparison to global finance, global institutions understand much less about other complex, interdependent and emerging systemic risks facing the 21st Century. Many of the greatest challenges of the 21st Century are not new. These include the elimination of poverty and disease, the avoidance of conflict and nuclear threats and bio-terrorism, and the loss of biodiversity and natural resources. What is new is the emergence of an interdependent but systemically fragile world. Harvesting the benefits of integration while minimizing the associated risks is likely to be the biggest challenge of the coming decade. The arguments above draw on an article co-authored with Tiffany Vogel in the inaugural issue of the journal Global Policy, which is published on 10 January 2010.

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Distressed Debt Investing – Risks Involved

January 7, 2010

Investment is a very complex field to understand for most of us! Only certain trained individuals do understand what investment exactly is. Originally posted here: Distressed Debt Investing – Risks Involved. ShareThis.

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How Commercial Real Estate Could Trigger a Double-Dip – DailyFinance

December 31, 2009

Reports that commercial real estate (CRE) is suffering from a double whammy of soaring vacancies and declining valuations have been making news recently with sobering regularity. DailyFinance addressed the risks that CRE meltdowns pose …

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China May Only `Fine Tune’ at Meeting to Set 2010 Policies, Economists Say

November 25, 2009

By Bloomberg News Nov. 25 (Bloomberg) — China’s leaders may highlight inflation concerns at a meeting this month to set economic priorities for 2010 without changing existing fiscal and monetary policies, economists said. “Immediate concerns about the recovery are still likely to dominate,” Mark Williams , a London-based economist for Capital Economics Ltd., said in a note dated yesterday. He predicts “only a moderate shift” in policy stance, perhaps by adding “stable prices” as a goal. China’s annual central economic work conference may be held before the end of November, according to reports in state media and the Hong Kong Economic Times. Policy makers weighing when to reduce stimulus measures must balance the strength of the recovery in the world’s third-biggest economy against the risks of bad loans, asset bubbles and resurgent inflation. The meeting is likely to endorse the existing “proactive” fiscal policy and “relatively loose” monetary stance, Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts said in a Nov. 23 report, adding the government is not yet ready to roll out an exit strategy. “Fine-tuning” may include highlighting concerns such as inflation, asset prices and structural reforms, the report said. The government may significantly tighten lending and investment in April next year, when the global recovery is on a firmer footing and investment in China is showing signs of overheating, the report said. Asset Prices Policy makers will put an increased emphasis next year on preventing asset-price fluctuations that could hurt the economy, the state-run China Securities Journal said in a front-page opinion piece today. The central bank has room to raise reserve requirements for banks, the newspaper said, adding that there is no sign that interest rates will increase soon. An unprecedented $1.3 trillion of loans this year and a $586 billion stimulus package running through 2010 drove a rebound in the third quarter to the fastest expansion in a year, when the economy grew 8.9 percent. The key one-year lending rate is at a five-year low of 5.31 percent and the central bank has kept the yuan almost unchanged against the dollar since July last year to help exporters weather the global economic crisis. The State Council, China’s cabinet, said Oct. 21 that the policy focus for coming months would be to “balance the need to maintain stable and relatively fast growth, the need to adjust the economic structure and the need to better manage inflationary expectations.” Risk of ‘Bubbles’ Property prices are climbing and the Shanghai Composite Index has gained more than 75 percent this year. The nation needs to tackle the risks of “asset-price bubbles and misallocation of resources,” the World Bank said Nov. 4. China may need to rein in credit growth to tame inflationary pressures and keep asset bubbles from emerging as growth accelerates, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said last week. China’s five largest banks have submitted plans to regulators for raising money after unprecedented lending eroded their capital, according to four people with knowledge of the matter. For Related News and Information: Most-read stories on China: MNI CHINA 1W Most-read China economy stories: TNI CHECO MOSTREAD For top economic news: TOP ECO For top China news: TOP CHINA Credit crunch page: WCC Government relief programs: GGRP

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Fed Officials Say Zero Interest Rates May Be Fueling Undue Risk in Markets

November 25, 2009

By Craig Torres Nov. 25 (Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve policy makers said for the first time that their decision to cut interest rates to zero may be fueling undue financial-market speculation even as they called the dollar’s decline “orderly.” The Federal Open Market Committee said its policy of keeping rates low might cause “excessive risk-taking” or an “unanchoring of inflation expectations,” according to minutes of its Nov. 3-4 meeting released yesterday. Central bankers also said further dollar depreciation that might “put significant upward pressure on inflation would bear close watching.” The dollar weakened as investors wagered the central bank will tolerate further declines in a currency that has slid more than 6 percent against the yen in three months. Policy makers are wary of fueling a third asset-price bubble in about a decade as they hold the benchmark interest rate near a record low to revive growth, economists said. “Financial markets have been doing much better than people might have expected,” said Marvin Goodfriend , a former policy adviser at the Richmond Fed who is now a professor at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh. “The Fed is saying to markets, ‘Don’t overdo it.’” Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke , 55, will face lawmakers’ scrutiny when he appears on Dec. 3 before the Senate Banking Committee for a hearing on his nomination to a second term. Senator Christopher Dodd , the committee’s chairman and a Connecticut Democrat, has blamed the Fed for lax supervision that led to a credit-fueled housing bubble. The bust in home prices, along with borrower defaults, led to the worst recession since the Great Depression. Fuel Speculation Last week, policy makers in China and Japan said low U.S. interest rates are fueling surging prices of commodities as well as financial assets in emerging markets. The decline of the dollar and decisions in the U.S. not to raise interest rates have caused “huge” speculation in foreign exchange trading and global asset prices, Liu Mingkang , chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said Nov. 15. Gold prices touched an all-time high of $1,174 an ounce in New York on Nov. 23 as a slumping dollar boosted the appeal of alternative assets. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index has jumped 63 percent since its 2009 low on March 9, and the MSCI AC World stock index is up 72 percent. The dollar weakened to the lowest level versus the yen in a month after the minutes were released yesterday. The dollar fell 0.5 percent in New York to 88.55 yen at 4:33 p.m. in New York from 88.97 on Nov. 23, after touching 88.36, the lowest level since Oct. 9. Excessive Risk Taking Fed policy makers at their meeting this month repeated their commitment to keep the benchmark interest rate “exceptionally low” for an “extended period.” In their discussion of asset prices, they said the likelihood of excessive risk-taking was “relatively low.” Even so, officials “introduced topics that they traditionally avoid,” said Lou Crandall , chief economist at Wrightson ICAP LLC in Jersey City, New Jersey. Asset values “can be considered some of the additional factors that would influence their outlook for inflation and growth.” The U.S. economy grew less than initially estimated last quarter as consumer spending trailed forecasts, according to a Commerce Department report released yesterday. The economy expanded at a 2.8 percent annual rate, less than the initial estimate of a 3.5 percent pace of expansion. ‘Balanced’ Risks “Most participants now viewed the risks to their growth forecasts as being roughly balanced rather than tilted to the downside, but uncertainty surrounding these forecasts was still viewed as quite elevated,” the minutes said. Among the risks policy makers considered was a jobless recovery. “Most members projected that over the next couple of years, the unemployment rate would remain quite elevated and the level of inflation would remain below rates consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve’s objectives,” the minutes said. Fed officials trimmed their forecasts for the U.S. jobless rate in 2010 and 2011, the minutes showed. Fed governors and regional bank presidents predicted the rate will range from 9.3 percent to 9.7 percent in next year’s fourth quarter, down from their June projection of 9.5 percent to 9.8 percent. The U.S. economy has lost 7.3 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007. The unemployment rate rose last month to a 26-year high of 10.2 percent. U.S. payrolls shrank by 190,000 jobs last month, and the average workweek held at a record low. AOL, the Internet unit being spun off from Time Warner Inc., plans to cut as much as 2,300 staff, or about one third of its workforce, over the next several months. Aetna Inc., the third-largest U.S. health insurer, said Nov. 18 it’s cutting about 625 positions and plans to eliminate a similar amount next year to cope with the recession and the potential effects of the U.S. health overhaul. To contact the reporters on this story: Craig Torres in Washington at ctorres3@bloomberg.net

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