silver

Kohl’s Leases 102,000-SF Office Space

May 24, 2010

Kohl’s Department Stores Inc. signed a long-term lease for 102,000 square feet of office space at Myers & Crow’s Westover Office Center I in San Antonio, TX. The two-story, 102,000-square-foot, LEED Silver certified building is at 10000 Rogers Run…

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European Economic Confidence Climbs More Than Economists Forecast in March

March 29, 2010

By Emma Ross-Thomas March 29 (Bloomberg) — European confidence in the economic outlook improved to the highest in almost two years in March, beating economists’ forecasts and signaling the recovery is gathering strength as a weaker euro helps exporters. An index of executive and consumer sentiment in the 16 nations using the euro rose to 97.7 from 95.9 in February, the European Commission in Brussels said today. That was the highest since May 2008 and topped the 97.1 median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The euro region ’s recovery is gaining momentum after coming to a near-halt in the fourth quarter as companies boost output to meet export orders. Europe’s services and manufacturing industries expanded at the fastest pace in 2 1/2 years in March and economic confidence is now at the highest since four months before the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. The International Monetary Fund said on March 22 that it expects the global economy to “bounce back” in 2010. “The latest survey evidence provides encouragement that the recovery has not stalled,” said Jennifer McKeown , senior European economist at Capital Economics in London. The report “still points to pretty modest” economic growth of below 1 percent this year, she said. The euro has dropped 7.6 percent against the dollar in the past six months, helping exporters by making euro-area goods more competitive abroad. The European currency traded at $1.3477 at 10:54 a.m. in London, little changed on the confidence data and down from $1.4587 on Sept. 29. The currency has been pushed lower partly on concern that the Greek government won’t be able to tame the region’s largest budget deficit. Global Recovery Asian economies are leading a global recovery from the worst slump since World War II. The economy of the “world’s most dynamic region” including China will expand around 8.5 percent in 2010, IMF First Deputy Managing Director John Lipsky said on March 22. China, the world’s fastest-growing major economy, was the only one of the euro area’s main trading partners to boost purchases of goods from the region last year. “The recovery in the euro zone is still export-led,” said Martin van Vliet , senior economist at ING Bank in Amsterdam. “It’s still too early to suggest the euro weakness is helping, but it’s the silver lining of the sovereign debt turmoil in Europe.” Bayerische Motoren Werke AG , the world’s biggest maker of luxury vehicles, said on March 17 that deliveries this year will increase with sales in China projected to show a “strong double-digit” percentage gain. Export Order Books As the global economy returns to growth, exporters’ outlook has strengthened. A measure of euro-area manufacturers’ export order books improved to minus 37 in March, the highest since November 2008, from minus 42 in February, today’s report showed. The same measure for Germany , Europe’s biggest economy, improved to minus 34 from minus 40 in February. The German economy also saw the largest monthly increase in the overall sentiment index, the commission said. In Greece , where the government is raising taxes and cutting public-sector wages to reduce a record budget gap, the confidence index declined to 69.6 from 72.4. Greece’s economy may shrink 2 percent this year, as austerity measures take hold, the Bank of Greece said on March 22. Sentiment also deteriorated in Italy, Finland and Cyprus, and consumers became more pessimistic in Spain and Portugal. For the euro region overall, the gauge of consumer confidence was unchanged at minus 17. Spain’s economy is set to contract 0.6 percent this year, compared with an expansion of 1 percent in the euro area, according to IMF forecasts published on Jan. 26. 13-Month High Households’ inflation expectations increased, the report showed, as a gauge of consumers’ price expectations over the next 12 months rose to a 13-month high of 4 from zero in the previous month. Consumer prices probably rose 1.1 percent from a year earlier in March, according to a Bloomberg survey of 35 economists. That would be the fastest euro-area inflation in more than a year. The price data will be released on March 31. To contact the reporter on this story: Emma Ross-Thomas in Madrid at erossthomas@bloomberg.net

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Dan Dorfman: Why Stock Sizzle Won’t Fizzle

March 28, 2010

“They ought to move the New York Stock Exchange from Wall Street to Cape Canaveral,” Los Angeles money manager Arnold Silver quipped the other day. Why so? “Because this market looks like it’s moon-bound,” he says. A flamboyant comment, of course, but not to Silver, a former day trader who runs his own firm, A. Silver Associates, and says the only question now, given the market’s sharply rising momentum, is how high is up. His view: The Dow (currently at 10,850), could reach 12,000 before the end of June as more and more investors shed their timidity and come out of the foxhole. In fact, Silver, a former bear who has swung into the bullish camp, thinks positive job hiring numbers for a couple of months — which he expects soon — could spur a stock buying frenzy. And that, he believes, could lead to an all-time high in the index (above its October 2007 peak of 14,164) before year end. For some thoughts on Silver’s “moon-bound” view, I rang up one of the investment community’s more incisive and analytical minds, Bill Rhodes, a former market strategist at Merrill Lynch. Methodical, scientific and exacting and presently skipper of Boston-based Rhodes Analytics, Rhodes is paid big bucks for doling out investment advice to major institutional investors, such as pension funds, mutual funds and hedge funds. Rhodes also boasts a snazzy record of catching up and down market movements. One of his more impressive calls came on March 22, 2009, when the S&P 500 was trading at 768. At the time, he told clients that an unusual flood of liquidity from the Fed and the Treasury signaled the likelihood of much higher equity prices. With the index more than 50% higher now at 1,166, it turned out to a super money-making call for any clients wise enough to heed his words. A former classical pianist, Rhodes tells me as he looks at his indicators and models — which show the market to be awesome — “it’s hard to say this market is not going to go higher or quarrel with that moon-bound comment.” Spelling out why he’s so gung-ho, Rhodes points to the following: –We’re in the early phase of an economic expansion. –Corporate profits are up 30% on a year-over-year basis. –The trend in retail sales is pretty good. –Initial jobless claims have retreated 30% year-over-year. –Year-over-year, the housing market is not as bad as it had been, with new home sales down 13%, versus a much heftier 39% year-over-year decline as of last March, and existing home sales are up about 43%. –Domestic non-financial and non-federal debt, year-over-year, is shrinking for the first time in 60 years, versus government debt, which is going through the roof. In addition, Rhodes notes the breadth of the market (advancing stocks, versus declining stocks) is tremendous, volatility is going down, spreads on stock prices between bids and asked are narrowing, and volume is picking up. “Based on what’s going on now, I think you can go into the market, buy and realize positive returns,” he says. Rhodes wouldn’t discuss individual stocks, but he did identify the sectors that show up strongest in his work. They are consumer discretionary, financials and export-oriented industrials, all of which are beneficiaries of an economy in the early stages of expansion. On a cautionary note, Rhodes expresses concern that the money stuffed into the financial system by central banks and finance ministers to keep it from going down is now being withdrawn. In the U.S., for example, he takes note of the shutting down of such government-support programs as commercial paper facilities and temporary liquidity swap arrangements. Since liquidity is being drained globally, he says, and the thing to do is to keep an eye on it because if something goes wrong, that’s where its going to happen. Another of his concerns is that debt is growing /by leaps and bounds worldwide and Moody’s, he points out, is even saying it may have to downgrade U.K. and U.S. debt. There’s an old Marine saying, No guts, no glory. Rhodes never said it in so many words, but his investment message is clear: Now is the time to realize more stock market glory if you’ve got the guts to play. He may be right, but it’s noteworthy to me that in the past two trading sessions (Thursday and Friday) the market racked up some impressive gains in early trading, only to see them substantially pared later in the day amid waves of brisk profit-taking. What does it mean? That the risks are far from over and bulls can also be gored. You may be one of them. What do you think? E-mail me at Dandordan@aol.com.

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Chipmaker NXP Planning IPO

March 27, 2010

NEW YORK/AMSTERDAM (Reuters) – Dutch semiconductor company NXP [NXP.UL], owned by private equity firms, including KKR and Silver Lake, is planning an initial public offering (IPO), a source familiar with the matter said. A potential IPO, earlier reported by Bloomberg, could raise about $1 billion, the source said. A number of banks would handle the sale, Bloomberg reported — Morgan Stanley ( MS.N ), Barclays Plc ( BARC.L ), Credit Suisse Group AG ( CSGN.VX ), Deutsche Bank AG ( DBKGn.DE ) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc ( GS.N ). NXP was spun off from Koninklijke Philips Electronics NV ( PHG.AS ) in 2006 in a leveraged buyout. A consortium of private equity investors, including Silver Lake and Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co ( KKR.AS ) bought a majority of the company. The banks and private equity firms either declined comment, or could not be reached. NXP and Philips declined to comment. Philips said in January its remaining 19.8 percent stake in NXP had a value of 207 million euros as of December 2009, implying a valuation for the whole company of more than one billion euros. KKR has already written down its stake in NXP substantially, saying in December that the fair value of its investment was $75 million on a cost of $250 million. NXP’s Chief Executive Rick Clemmer told Reuters earlier this year he expected sales to be flat to slightly higher during the first quarter, but was waiting for more clarity about the market in the second half. Private equity firms buy companies with the aim of exiting them a few years later, either through a sale or an initial public offering. During the financial crisis, leaving investments was very difficult, but the markets have opened up recently, allowing some firms to exit. (Reporting by Megan Davies and Jui Chakravorty in New York and Greg Roumeliotis and Harro Ten Wolde in Amsterdam; editing by Mike Peacock)

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KKR Seeks to Raise $1 Billion in IPO of NXP to Cut Dutch Chipmaker’s Debt

March 26, 2010

By Cristina Alesci and Zachary R. Mider March 26 (Bloomberg) — NXP BV, the Dutch semiconductor maker bought by KKR & Co. four years ago, plans to raise at least $1 billion in an initial public offering to reduce debt, two people with knowledge of the matter said. NXP hired Morgan Stanley, Barclays Plc, Credit Suisse Group AG, Deutsche Bank AG and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to handle the sale, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the talks are private. KKR, Silver Lake and AlpInvest Partners NV bought an 80.1 percent stake in the firm from Royal Philips Electronics NV in 2006, in a deal that valued the entire company at 8.3 billion euros ($10.6 billion), including debt. In December, KKR said its NXP investment was worth 30 cents on the dollar. Kristi Huller, a KKR spokeswoman in New York, said she couldn’t comment. Spokespeople for the five banks also declined to comment. NXP, with 29,000 employees, makes computer chips for customers such as Nokia Oyj , Continental AG, and Robert Bosch GmbH, according to its Web site. The Eindhoven, Netherlands- based firm’s revenue dropped to $3.7 billion in 2009 from $5.4 billion the previous year. To contact the reporter on this story: Cristina Alesci in New York at calesci2@bloomberg.net ; Zachary R. Mider in New York at zmider1@bloomberg.net

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Buffett Backs Toys Gone `Green’ as Parents Sniff Out Plastic at Wal-Mart

March 26, 2010

By Esmé E. Deprez March 26 (Bloomberg) — When Norma Ramos went to the Wal- Mart in North Bergen, New Jersey, last week to shop for her son’s birthday party, she passed over the plastic toys in favor of wooden ones with minimal paint. “Five years ago, I never paid attention,” said Ramos, 36, a mother of three who says she now smells toys to make sure they’re free of plastic odor. “Then I thought about what kind of environment my children’s children would grow up in.” Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Wham-O Inc. and Warren Buffett’s Garan Inc. are backing toys made from natural or recycled materials. As customers such as Ramos get choosier, sales of green toys may balloon to $1 billion, or as much as 5 percent of toy sales in the next five years, according to Earthsense , a Syracuse, New York-based environmental research firm. The heightened interest in green toys is a progression from the trend’s popularity in household cleaning and personal-care products, according to Catherine Fox-Simpson , a retail consultant at BDO Seidman. U.S. sales of natural and organic household cleaners grew 35 percent to $737 million in 2008, according to the Nutrition Business Journal . “Retailers are focused on going green because their consumers are focused on it,” said Fox-Simpson, who is based in Dallas. Paying a Premium While green toys account for less than 1 percent of the market, the number of products is growing, said Jim Silver, editor-in-chief of www.TimetoPlayMag.com. Researcher NPD Group, based in Port Washington, New York, estimated the toy industry’s 2009 retail sales at $21.5 billion. The growth of earth-friendly toys has been hampered by the higher prices that accompany sustainable manufacturing, or making products while using renewable resources, less energy and creating less waste, said Sean McGowan , a New York-based analyst at Needham & Co. “In any economic climate, the willingness to pay a premium to save the earth can be a tough sell,” McGowan said. With the U.S. unemployment rate at about 10 percent, “it’s even harder,” he said. Wal-Mart, the world’s largest retailer, may help change that. Shoppers are buying Garanimals blocks and puzzles made with wood from renewable forests, said Melissa O’Brien , a Wal- Mart spokeswoman. Garanimals toys are made by Garan, a unit of Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Also popular with customers now are plush animals made from recycled plastic bottles, a product from closely held Dan Dee International Ltd., in Jersey City, New Jersey, O’Brien said. Games, Modeling Dough As Wal-Mart makes a bigger push into green toys, the industry may have to respond. The chain is the biggest toy- seller, said Joseph Feldman , senior retail analyst at Telsey Advisory Group in New York. Based on the square footage devoted to toys in stores, he estimated that toy sales accounted for as much as 7 percent of Wal-Mart’s $258.2 billion in annual U.S. revenue last year. Amazon.com Inc. , the biggest online retailer, said it has seen increased demand for toys with a lighter environmental impact. Popular products include color-matching games made from bamboo and modeling dough made from rice flour and vegetable extracts, according to Sarah Wood, director of the company’s toy store. Both Amazon.com and Wal-Mart declined to provide sales figures. Mattel Inc. and Hasbro Inc., the two biggest U.S. toy companies, may produce eco-toys of their own to maintain shelf space at retailers, said Reyne Rice , a trend analyst at the New York-based Toy Industry Association. Frisbee-maker Wham-O Inc., based in Emeryville, California, bought Sprig Toys in February to add ecological products, and Rice said there will be more acquisitions in the industry. Sprigwood Fort Collins, Colorado-based Sprig was founded in 2007 by three former designers from Mattel around the time lead-paint toy scandals plagued larger manufacturers. Sprig makes paint- free toys from reclaimed wood and recycled plastic, a composite they call Sprigwood, and uses kinetic energy instead of batteries to power the toys’ lights and sounds. Wham-O, whose products are available at Wal-Mart, Target Corp. and Toys ‘R’ Us Inc., will sell Sprig toys in 4,000 stores this year, Sprig co-founder Justin Discoe said. In 2008, that number was 400. Sprig wouldn’t provide sales figures. Mattel has been working on reducing the size and amount of materials used in packaging and increasing the use of recycled content where possible, said Jules Andres , a spokeswoman for the El Segundo, California-based company. Hasbro, based in Pawtucket, Rhode Island, advertises similar strategies on its Web site and declined to comment further. Hampered Growth Wham-O will use its existing factories to make Sprig toys, which will reduce manufacturing costs beginning with the 2010 line, Discoe said. The average price of Sprig’s Captain Owen’s Dolphin Explorer Boat will fall to $19.99 in June from $29.99 last year. “Sprig’s ability to sell eco-friendly toys at prices comparable to ‘regular’ toys is a big deal,” said Needham’s McGowan. Ramos, whose search for birthday-party favors was only her third trip to Wal-Mart, said she has made up for the higher price of eco-friendly toys at specialty stores by purchasing fewer of them. “I’d tend to buy more if they were cheaper,” she said. “I’ll definitely come back to Wal-Mart now that I see what they have.” To contact the reporter on this story: Esmé E. Deprez in New York at edeprez@bloomberg.net

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Tata Nano EXPLODES In Mumbai, Automaker Confronts Safety Concerns Over $2,500 Car

March 25, 2010

Software engineer Satish Sawant, his wife and 5-year-old son escaped from the silver Tata Nano – which still bore a celebratory garland of marigolds on the front hood – before the tiny car was engulfed by fire. A chauffeur initially was at the wheel, but Sawant said he had taken over driving before the fire broke out. Tata has offered Sawant a replacement Nano or a refund. “My wife now doesn’t want to buy any car,” Sawant said by phone from his home in northern Mumbai on Thursday. “She doesn’t even want to go for a Mercedes.” His ordeal showed just the latest problem with the low-cost Nano as Tata Motors sets its sights on global expansion and aims to ramp up production of the car with a new factory next month. Tata Motors spokesman Debasis Ray said the company is investigating the cause of the fire. Although Ray said the automaker believed it was “a one-off, stray incident,” he also said he did not know how the blaze began. “It did catch fire. We’re trying to figure out what may have caused it,” Ray said. Last fall, three customers in India complained that their Nanos started smoking, but Ray said Thursday the incidents are not related to this week’s fire. Tata Motors attributed those to a faulty electrical switch and said it had changed suppliers and done additional tests to rule out a recall or redesign. The switch problem, he said, “has been comprehensively addressed.” “Safety has never been an issue with Tata cars,” Ray added. “They are one of the safest cars on Indian roads.” The Nano has gotten rave reviews and awards, but some say the smoke and fire problems are symptomatic of pervasive quality control issues at India’s No. 3 carmaker. The Nano was meant to bring automobile ownership to the impoverished masses – first in India but eventually around the world – by offering a safe car to people who couldn’t otherwise afford one. Ratan Tata, who heads the Tata Group empire, has said he conceived of the idea for a “people’s car” after seeing entire families crammed precariously on motorbikes. He decided they deserved a safer, all-weather transport option. The four-seater can travel up to 65 mph (105 kph) and gets 55.5 miles to the gallon (23.6 kilometers per liter). The Nano does not have air bags or antilock brakes – neither of which is required in India – and air conditioning and power windows are extra. It has as few moving parts as possible. There’s only one windshield wiper, one side mirror and the headrests aren’t adjustable. The dinner-plate-sized wheels have three bolts rather than four. The tiny trunk doesn’t open; you access it from the inside, behind the rear seats. There are four gears, plus reverse. The dashboard of the base model has only a speedometer, an odometer and a fuel gauge. Tata Motors, which also owns Jaguar and Land Rover, plans to start selling versions of the Nano in Europe in 2011, and later in the U.S. “As of today, is Tata good enough to take on the world? I would say no,” said Deepesh Rathore, an auto analyst at IHS Global Insight in New Delhi. “On quality standards, Tata barely makes the cut.” There are fewer than 30,000 Nanos on the road today, which means that on a percentage basis, the problem rate is fairly high, he said. “The Nano is a wonderful product, but these incidents really tarnish the image of the car as well as the company,” Rathore said. “This is the time for Tata to have a deep look at quality.” He said the company recently made a step in the right direction, hiring Carl-Peter Forster, former head of General Motors in Europe, as group chief executive. “They’ve got a guy running the show now who knows how the industry should work,” he said. “How soon will the effects be seen across the Tata product range? Well, that will take time.”

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Silver Peak Appoints Marc Trimuschat as Vice President of Business Development

March 18, 2010

SANTA CLARA, CA–(Marketwire – March 18, 2010) – Silver Peak Systems, Inc. , the leader in data center class Wide Area Network (WAN) optimization, today announced that Marc Trimuschat has joined the company as vice president of business development. In this role, Mr. Trimuschat will lead the development of Silver Peak’s strategic business and technology partnerships, enhancing the company’s ability to sell and support WAN optimization products to leading enterprises throughout the world.

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Silver Peak Appoints Marc Trimuschat as Vice President of Business Development

March 18, 2010

SANTA CLARA, CA–(Marketwire – March 18, 2010) – Silver Peak Systems, Inc. , the leader in data center class Wide Area Network (WAN) optimization, today announced that Marc Trimuschat has joined the company as vice president of business development. In this role, Mr. Trimuschat will lead the development of Silver Peak’s strategic business and technology partnerships, enhancing the company’s ability to sell and support WAN optimization products to leading enterprises throughout the world.

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Kingsrose Mining Limited (ASX:KRM) Prepares to Commission the Way Linggo Gold and Silver Mine in Indonesia

March 15, 2010

Kingsrose Mining Limited (ASX:KRM) Prepares to Commission the Way Linggo Gold and Silver Mine in Indonesia

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Gates Sees Afghan War Gains, Risks as Fight Expands in Taliban Heartland

March 9, 2010

By Viola Gienger March 9 (Bloomberg) — Defense Secretary Robert Gates heard from front-line participants in the Afghan war today, pinning awards for bravery on U.S. soldiers and Marines and shaking hands with farmers selling goods in a revived market. Gates flew to the southern province of Kandahar on his second day in Afghanistan to meet with commanders and visit a forward operating base that has borne heavy casualties and will play a role in the war’s next major offensive. He then traveled to a combat post in neighboring Helmand Province, where a re-opened mud-hut market in the town of Now Zad illustrates U.S. hopes of guaranteeing enough security in most of Afghanistan to restore commerce and a semblance of normal life. “Essentially for four years, that town was a complete ghost town. There wasn’t anybody there,” Gates told reporters traveling with him to the base flanked by mountains with patches of fertile, green farmland in a distant valley. U.S. Marines working with Afghan soldiers and British troops in Operation Cobra’s Anger in December wiped out the insurgents who controlled the area, according to commanders. The market, made of the adobe-like material common in rural Afghanistan, now has about 15 shops selling juice and produce such as potatoes. Residents are beginning to return to the town, once the second-largest in the province. The operation became a model for an offensive the NATO-led coalition in Afghanistan is wrapping up in Marjah, farther south in Helmand Province. That, in turn, provides lessons for a bigger and more complex operation being planned in Kandahar, the heartland of the Taliban. Security Worries Now Zad also shows the difficulties facing international organizations in supporting development after areas are cleared of insurgents and security improves. Gates heard appeals from the market stall operators in the town for faster demining of roads so they can get more of their goods to markets elsewhere and customers can come to them. “I feel reinforced the path we’re on is the right path,” Gates said after the visit. It also is “going to take a while, and it’s going to be complicated.” Afghan Brigadier General Muhiudin Ghori, who accompanied Gates on his tour, agreed change would take time, in part because of the low levels of education and literacy in his country. Afghan and American troops have formed a “brotherhood,” he said in an interview, speaking through an interpreter. They eat together, work together, fight together, and ties are growing “step by step.” Combat Intensifies The risks are climbing for American troops. Gates awarded two Silver Stars in Kandahar and a Purple Heart in Helmand Province. One of the Silver Star recipients, Lieutenant Colonel John Morgan of Virginia Beach, Virginia, led a group of attack and armed-reconnaissance aircraft in August to rescue an ambushed bomb-clearing patrol. The Pentagon chief also visited the 1st Battalion, 17th Infantry Regiment, which has lost 22 soldiers and seen 62 wounded in seven months on the ground. The unit was diverted from a planned mission in Iraq and was deployed last year to Afghanistan, said battalion commander Lieutenant Colonel Jonathan Neumann. The switch was part of President Barack Obama ’s shift of troops after taking office. The battalion’s new charge was to secure the northern approach to Kandahar City, which included the pomegranate- and wheat-growing Arghandab River Valley, the site of an irrigation dam built with U.S. funding in the 1950s. That meant scaling tall mud walls the farmers use to delineate the property so the soldiers could avoid roads and other areas littered with roadside bombs. ‘Fight Our Way’ “We really had to fight our way to get to the population,” Neumann told reporters traveling with Gates, illustrating his remarks with a computer-slide presentation. U.S. soldiers intercepted militants earlier today who were planting bombs on a route into a village that was going to be used by a medical unit to assist villagers, Neumann said. The action by the reconnaissance platoon prevented an aid effort “from being interrupted by Tommy Taliban,” Neumann said, using a nickname for the enemy fighter. Gates assured the soldiers that he had personally read a memo that their commander had written on improvements needed to the Stryker combat troop-transport vehicle, and he said he would move “urgently” on the recommendations. “You all have had a very tough tour here,” Gates told them in front of a cement block carved with the names of those who died. “You’re in an area that once again is going to be important, part of a decisive phase in this campaign, and once again you will be the tip of the spear.” Gates cautioned against raising expectations too fast. “It’s a poor country to start with and has been through 30 years of war,” he told reporters. “It seems to me, just looking at it, somebody having a roof over their head and being able to work their farm and send their children to school — for a lot of Afghans today sounds like a pretty good life.” To contact the reporter on this story: Viola Gienger in Now Zad, Afghanistan, at vgienger@bloomberg.net

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Robert E. Scott: The Myth of the manufacturing recovery

February 26, 2010

Some bloggers have suggested that manufacturing is doing well, just because output has grown for the past few months. One sets up a straw man in a piece title “No, Virginia, U.S. Manufacturing isn’t dead,” but no serious economist claims that manufacturing is dead. Manufacturing employed 11.5 million workers in January, 2010, 8.9% of U.S. non-farm employment. However, nearly 6 million manufacturing jobs have disappeared since 1998, and manufacturing’s share of GDP has fallen by a similar share in that time. The Bonddag blog and many others claim that productivity growth is responsible for manufacturing job loss, but they’ve got it wrong. Growing manufacturing trade deficits from 1998 to 2006, and the worst recession since the 1930s are responsible for the vast majority of all manufacturing job loss. We can reclaim a large share of these jobs by shrinking the trade deficit and putting this recession behind us. I explained the relationship between manufacturing output, productivity growth, trade deficits and job loss in my Snapshot on Manufacturing Job Loss: Productivity is not the culprit . It shows that productivity has always grown rapidly in manufacturing–there was no big upsurge in the past decade. The recent uptick in productivity occurred in other sectors of the economy, which does help explain why job growth economy-wide was so terrible in the Bush era, but that’s another story. With manufacturing, the story is simple. In the past, we had high growth in real output and high output growth in manufacturing leading to stable employment. Then, after 2000, productivity growth continued but output growth flat-lined and manufacturing employment collapsed. The reason: a soaring trade deficit in manufacturing products. People kept buying more manufactured goods; they just bought them from China and other exporters, not from U.S. manufacturers. Josh Bivens reviewed this history in his earlier Snapshot on Trade Deficits and Manufacturing Employment . In the past, employment and the trade deficit in manufacturing were roughly stable for 30 years from the late 60s through the late 90s.* Then the Asian financial crisis hit in 1998. The value of the dollar soared along with the manufacturing trade deficit. Manufacturing employment fell like a rock, with a lag of about 2 years, as shown in the graph below. The manufacturing trade balance did start to improve in 2007, but the big drop in the deficit came in 2008 and 2009, and was caused by the recession. The recession was also responsible for the loss of about 2 million of the 5.7 million manufacturing jobs lost since 1998. Bonddad is misguided, and his analysis is confused. His first mistake is to plot a chart of the U.S. Industrial Production Index since 1960 with a trend line (it’s clearly not a fitted trend, but something done with a ruler or graphing software). He says that the increase in manufacturing output is “continual”, suggesting that growth has been steady, but that’s flat out wrong. One problem is that you can’t calculate or “eyeball” growth rates from a linear plot of output. Every introductory, undergraduate finance student learns that you have to plot stock prices on a logarithmic graph to spot changes in growth rates. This is simply because growth compounds–remember, your grandmother taught you that bit of wisdom about the advantage of putting your money in a savings account. In fact, growth in U.S. manufacturing output dropped sharply after 2000, as shown in my snapshot above. If we use the FRB industrial production index and the business cycle peaks shown on Bonddad’s graph, and calculate simple compound average growth rates, the index grew 4.1% per year between July 1990 and March 2001 (the Clinton Business cycle). However, growth in the index fell to only 1.8% between March of 2001 and December 2007. The BLS output numbers show even slower growth in the Bush era, as indicated in my snapshot above. Bonddad makes a number of mistakes in analyzing the relationship between trade and employment. First, he cites a chart from SilverOz that supposedly compared imports of total goods and services with manufacturing employment. However, exports matter too, and for manufacturing, what is most relevant is the manufacturing trade balance, the difference between imports and exports of manufactured goods. The graph reportedly includes imports of both services and non-manufactured commodities, which are clearly un-related to manufacturing. Furthermore, exports sales can support domestic employment, and imports displace employment. You have to look at changes in the manufacturing trade balance to get an accurate picture of the impact of trade on the demand for manufacturing output and labor. But there are more problems with Bonddad’s trade and employment graph. It has a blue line which purports to measure imports of goods and services (measured with a negative sign, which is appropriate). But this series never exceeds $700 billion in imports. However, U.S. imports exceeded $2.5 trillion in 2008. Something is wrong here. It’s not the trade deficit either, because that was $-760 billion in 2006. Finally, the story is about manufacturing employment. The graph reports employment in “goods producing industries,” which include a number of domestic, non-manufacturing industries. The graph should compare manufacturing employment with the trade balance in manufactured goods, as I do in the chart above. To close the trade gap and rebuild manufacturing will required a coherent trade and industrial strategy. We must end currency manipulation by China and other Asian countries, aggressively attack unfair trade practices and rebuild manufacturing. We also need to create at least 4 to 5 million jobs in the rest of the economy to help end the recession, and rebuild demand for manufactured products. These are topics for another day. That discussion should start by acknowledging that productivity growth is a key source of strength and competitiveness in manufacturing, and is not responsible for manufacturing job loss. *The exception was the period from 1979-1989, when the trade deficit also soared and manufacturing employment also dropped. This was also caused by an over-valued currency, which was corrected by the 1985 Plaza Accord. Subsequently, the trade deficit declined and manufacturing employment stabilized. For more information, please visit EPI.org .

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Airgas Rejects Air Products’ Hostile $5.1 Billion Buy Offer as Inadequate

February 22, 2010

By Jack Kaskey Feb. 22 (Bloomberg) — Airgas Inc. , the largest U.S. industrial-gases distributor, rejected a hostile $5.1 billion bid from Air Products & Chemicals Inc. and urged shareholders to do the same, saying the company is poised for “massive growth.” Shareholders shouldn’t sell stock to Air Products because the $60-a-share offer “grossly undervalues” the company, Radnor, Pennsylvania-based Airgas said today in a statement. The bid is 38 percent higher than Airgas’s closing price prior to Feb. 5, when the proposal was made public. Air Products Chief Executive Officer John McGlade took the bid directly to investors on Feb. 11 after Airgas’s board rejected the same terms two days earlier. The offer undervalues earnings excluding some items that will exceed $4.20 a share in 2012, a 57 percent increase from calendar 2009, Airgas Chief Executive Officer Peter McCausland said today. “We are poised to realize massive growth,” McCausland, 60, said in a telephone interview. “The offer grossly undervalues Airgas.” Betsy Klebe , an Air Products spokeswoman, didn’t immediately return a call seeking comment. Airgas rose 6 cents to $63.59 at 10:24 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading . Air Products gained 5 cents to $69.69. Airgas said its board voted unanimously to reject the bid. The offer is opportunistic because it was made after the largest decline in Airgas’s earnings before interest and other items in 22 years, the company said in a presentation. ‘Silver Linings’ “One of the silver linings of this dark cloud is that it’s shining a light on Airgas,” McCausland said. A merger with Air Products would destroy value because Air Products doesn’t run a U.S. packaged-gas business and its European business often sells through distributors rather than a direct sales force such as the one employed by Airgas, McCausland said. “We are concerned about Air Products’ ability to manage the business,” McCausland said. “They have a very poor record.” Airgas uses data and 14,000 employees to manage more than 1 million customers, while Air Products focuses on building large air-separation assets and selling to a comparatively few number of customers through long-term contracts, he said. McGlade also plans to wage a proxy fight to elect new Airgas directors who could revoke a so-called poison pill meant to limit hostile bidders to a 15 percent stake. McCausland, who is one of three directors on the nine-member board up for re- election this year, said he doesn’t know when the annual meeting will be held this year. Airgas said it has delayed the poison pill, which would otherwise be triggered 10 days after a hostile bid is announced. To contact the reporter on this story: Jack Kaskey in New York at jkaskey@bloomberg.net .

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U.S. Seeks to End 50-Year Olympic Hockey Drought Against Canada

February 21, 2010

By Michael Buteau and Erik Matuszewski Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) — It’s been 50 years since the U.S. last beat Canada in men’s Olympic hockey competition. The Americans will look to end that drought today in one of three preliminary-round games at the Vancouver Winter Olympics. The U.S.-Canada matchup, scheduled for 4:40 p.m. local time, follows a meeting between Russia and the Czech Republic and precedes a game between Sweden, the defending Olympic champions, and Finland. Canada and the U.S. have faced each other 15 times in Olympic competition, with Canada winning 10 and tying three. The last U.S. victory came in 1960 in Squaw Valley, California. U.S. forward Chris Drury said his squad is relishing the chance to upset the Canadians on home ice. “Clearly no one is picking us to win,” Drury told reporters yesterday. “No one’s betting a nickel on us. U.S. hockey has come so far. Now, it doesn’t take a miracle for us to win.” With no guarantee that the U.S. would face Canada again in the medal round, Drury, who plays for the National Hockey League’s New York Rangers, said he’s making sure his younger teammates relish the opportunity. “Playing in Canada, against Canada at the Olympics, doesn’t happen too often in our lifetime,” he said. “You blink and it’s over. You have to look around and just realize how lucky we are to be doing this.” Easy Event Canada, coming off a 3-2 shootout win over Switzerland, defeated the U.S. for the gold medal in the 2002 Games in Salt Lake City. Canada defeated Norway 8-0 in its opening game in Vancouver, while the U.S beat Switzerland 3-1 and Norway 6-1. Six medal events will be contested today, including the men’s super-combined Alpine race, where Bode Miller of the U.S. will be seeking his third medal of the Games following a bronze in the downhill and silver in the Super-G. The super-combined, a combination of a downhill and a slalom run, was rescheduled from Feb. 16 due to heavy snow in Whistler, British Columbia. “Not to be arrogant but the super-combined is a pretty easy event for me,” Miller told reporters. “If I ski anywhere near my potential in either of those events, it’s rare that I would be off the podium.” Bobsleigh Delay Medals also will be awarded in men’s and women’s biathlon; women’s 1,500-meter speedskating; men’s two-man bobsleigh and men’s ski cross. The start time for the bobsleigh event was pushed back 2 ½ hours to 4 p.m. due to warm weather at the track on Blackcomb Mountain. Ski cross, which features skiers racing against each other at the same time over a course made up of turns and jumps, is making its Olympic debut. Yesterday, Jung-Su Lee of South Korea won the men’s 1,000- meter short-track speedskating event with countryman Ho-Suk Lee taking silver. Jung-Su Lee also won the 1,500-meter event on Feb. 13. Apolo Ohno of the U.S. won bronze to pass speedskater Bonnie Blair as the most decorated U.S. Winter Olympian. Ohno has seven medals, including a silver in the 1,500 meters in Vancouver. “It means a lot to me,” Ohno, 27, told reporters after yesterday’s race. “I never came to these Games thinking about breaking any records. It feels amazing. I’m all smiles.” Dutch Speed Mark Tuitert of the Netherlands won the men’s 1,500-meter speedskating race to deny Shani Davis of the U.S. a second gold medal. Tuitert, 29, won the 1,500-meter race in a time of 1:45.57 as Davis, the world record-holder in the event, matched his silver-medal finish at the 2006 Turin Games. Davis had won the 1,000-meter race three days ago and now has four Olympic medals in his career. Andrea Fischbacher claimed Austria’s first Alpine skiing gold medal of this year’s Games with her victory in the Super-G at Creekside in Whistler. Tina Maze of Slovenia took the silver medal and Lindsey Vonn of the U.S. received the bronze. The U.S. has 23 medals to top the Winter Games standings, seven of those coming in Alpine events. The previous high for Alpine medals in a Winter Olympics for the U.S. was five at the 1984 Games in Sarajevo. Germany is second with 14 medals, including four golds. Norway has 11 medals, including five gold, and host Canada has eight medals, half of which are gold. To contact the reporters on this story: Michael Buteau in Vancouver, at mbutea@bloomberg.net , and Erik Matuszewski in Whistler, British Columbia, at matuszewski@bloomberg.net

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U.S. Seeks to End 50-Year Olympic Hockey Drought Against Canada

February 21, 2010

By Michael Buteau and Erik Matuszewski Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) — It’s been 50 years since the U.S. last beat Canada in men’s Olympic hockey competition. The Americans will look to end that drought today in one of three preliminary-round games at the Vancouver Winter Olympics. The U.S.-Canada matchup, scheduled for 4:40 p.m. local time, follows a meeting between Russia and the Czech Republic and precedes a game between Sweden, the defending Olympic champions, and Finland. Canada and the U.S. have faced each other 15 times in Olympic competition, with Canada winning 10 and tying three. The last U.S. victory came in 1960 in Squaw Valley, California. U.S. forward Chris Drury said his squad is relishing the chance to upset the Canadians on home ice. “Clearly no one is picking us to win,” Drury told reporters yesterday. “No one’s betting a nickel on us. U.S. hockey has come so far. Now, it doesn’t take a miracle for us to win.” With no guarantee that the U.S. would face Canada again in the medal round, Drury, who plays for the National Hockey League’s New York Rangers, said he’s making sure his younger teammates relish the opportunity. “Playing in Canada, against Canada at the Olympics, doesn’t happen too often in our lifetime,” he said. “You blink and it’s over. You have to look around and just realize how lucky we are to be doing this.” Easy Event Canada, coming off a 3-2 shootout win over Switzerland, defeated the U.S. for the gold medal in the 2002 Games in Salt Lake City. Canada defeated Norway 8-0 in its opening game in Vancouver, while the U.S beat Switzerland 3-1 and Norway 6-1. Six medal events will be contested today, including the men’s super-combined Alpine race, where Bode Miller of the U.S. will be seeking his third medal of the Games following a bronze in the downhill and silver in the Super-G. The super-combined, a combination of a downhill and a slalom run, was rescheduled from Feb. 16 due to heavy snow in Whistler, British Columbia. “Not to be arrogant but the super-combined is a pretty easy event for me,” Miller told reporters. “If I ski anywhere near my potential in either of those events, it’s rare that I would be off the podium.” Bobsleigh Delay Medals also will be awarded in men’s and women’s biathlon; women’s 1,500-meter speedskating; men’s two-man bobsleigh and men’s ski cross. The start time for the bobsleigh event was pushed back 2 ½ hours to 4 p.m. due to warm weather at the track on Blackcomb Mountain. Ski cross, which features skiers racing against each other at the same time over a course made up of turns and jumps, is making its Olympic debut. Yesterday, Jung-Su Lee of South Korea won the men’s 1,000- meter short-track speedskating event with countryman Ho-Suk Lee taking silver. Jung-Su Lee also won the 1,500-meter event on Feb. 13. Apolo Ohno of the U.S. won bronze to pass speedskater Bonnie Blair as the most decorated U.S. Winter Olympian. Ohno has seven medals, including a silver in the 1,500 meters in Vancouver. “It means a lot to me,” Ohno, 27, told reporters after yesterday’s race. “I never came to these Games thinking about breaking any records. It feels amazing. I’m all smiles.” Dutch Speed Mark Tuitert of the Netherlands won the men’s 1,500-meter speedskating race to deny Shani Davis of the U.S. a second gold medal. Tuitert, 29, won the 1,500-meter race in a time of 1:45.57 as Davis, the world record-holder in the event, matched his silver-medal finish at the 2006 Turin Games. Davis had won the 1,000-meter race three days ago and now has four Olympic medals in his career. Andrea Fischbacher claimed Austria’s first Alpine skiing gold medal of this year’s Games with her victory in the Super-G at Creekside in Whistler. Tina Maze of Slovenia took the silver medal and Lindsey Vonn of the U.S. received the bronze. The U.S. has 23 medals to top the Winter Games standings, seven of those coming in Alpine events. The previous high for Alpine medals in a Winter Olympics for the U.S. was five at the 1984 Games in Sarajevo. Germany is second with 14 medals, including four golds. Norway has 11 medals, including five gold, and host Canada has eight medals, half of which are gold. To contact the reporters on this story: Michael Buteau in Vancouver, at mbutea@bloomberg.net , and Erik Matuszewski in Whistler, British Columbia, at matuszewski@bloomberg.net

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Maria Riesch Wins Super-Combined Gold as Vonn Falls

February 18, 2010

By Erik Matuszewski Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) — Maria Riesch of Germany won the Olympic gold medal in the women’s super-combined as Lindsey Vonn of the U.S. fell just before the finish of her slalom run. Riesch, 25, completed her downhill and slalom runs in a total time of 2 minutes, 9.14 seconds at the Alpine skiing venue in Whistler, British Columbia. The 2009 slalom world champion was in second place behind Vonn after the downhill portion of the event. Julia Mancuso of the U.S. took the silver medal, a day after finishing second to Vonn in the downhill. Anja Paerson of Sweden collected the bronze, her sixth Winter Olympics medal. Vonn, who became the first American woman to win Olympic gold in the downhill, led Riesch by .33 of a second after today’s downhill run. She still held the lead by seven- hundredths of a second on the slalom course when she hooked a gate with her right ski. Vonn was spun around as her ski popped off, knocking her out of the competition. The American has been bothered by a deep bruise in her right shin and said after the downhill portion of the combined that the injury was “killing” her. Tora Berger of Norway claimed the first gold medal of the day in biathlon, winning the women’s 15-kilometer individual title. It was the second gold of the Vancouver Winter Games for Norway. U.S. Leads Through five days of competition, the U.S. has 15 medals, four better than Germany and eight more than France. The five gold medals for the American team also are the most in Vancouver, one more than Germany. Hannah Teter and Gretchen Bleiler will seek to add more medals today for the U.S. in the women’s snowboard halfpipe. Teter won the gold medal four years ago and Bleiler took the silver. A second biathlon gold medal will be awarded in the men’s 20-kilomter individual and the final of the women’s 1,000-meter speedskating is also scheduled. The men’s figure skating title will be decided with the free skate program. Defending champion Evgeni Plushenko of Russia leads after the short program, followed by Evan Lysacek of the U.S. and Daisuke Takahaski of Japan To contact the reporter on this story: Erik Matuszewski in Vancouver, at matuszewski@bloomberg.net and

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Vonn Wins Olympic Downhill Gold; White Hits Halfpipe

February 17, 2010

By Michael Buteau and Erik Matuszewski Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) — Lindsey Vonn overcame weather delays and a bruised shin to win the women’s downhill and help lift the U.S. back atop the medals standings at the Winter Olympics. Vonn, the World Cup downhill ski champion the past two seasons and winner of all but one of six races in the event this campaign, became the first American woman to win Olympic skiing’s ultimate speed race, finishing in 1 minute, 44.19 seconds at the course in Whistler, British Columbia. It was the first of five Olympic events for Vonn, who benefited from the combination of rain, fog and heavy snow over the past six days that delayed Alpine skiing events and gave her more time to recover from the bruise sustained during slalom training in Austria two weeks ago. “I dreamed about what this would feel like but it is much better in real life,” Vonn, 25, told reporters. “I got what I came here for — a gold medal. I have what I want and I’ll just keep fighting every day.”   Vonn finished more than a second faster than every competitor except teammate Julia Mancuso , who took the silver in 1:44.75. The U.S. now has 10 medals, one more than Germany in the standings, and tied Switzerland and South Korea with three gold medals, the most at the Winter Games. Overcoming Injury Vonn was the 16th of 45 racers in the downhill, staged on a sunny day at the course two hours north of Vancouver. She said she was able to overcome discomfort from the bruise, which is located where her ski boot comes in contact with her shin. “My leg was killing me, I was tired and I didn’t know what to expect at the bottom,” said Vonn. “That last gate before the last jump was where I lost the World Cup. I’m so happy I made it down.” She beat Mancuso by more than a half-second and was two seconds ahead of Britt Janyk, a Canadian who grew up in Whistler, and Nadia Styger , a Swiss skier who beat Vonn at the same course two years ago. When Germany’s Maria Riesch skied to the finish more than two seconds behind after starting 22nd, Vonn was virtually assured of the gold medal. It’s the first time since the 1984 Sarajevo Winter Games that the U.S. won gold and silver in an Alpine event. Elisabeth Goergl of Austria took the bronze in 1:45.65. Two gold medals were awarded in cross-country skiing sprint events, with Marit Bjoergen of Norway winning the women’s competition and Nikita Kriukov of Russia taking the men’s title. It was the first gold medal of the Vancouver Winter Games for each country. Snowboarding Halfpipe Shaun White will have a chance to extend the U.S. medal lead when the men’s snowboard competitors slide down the halfpipe at Cypress Mountain outside Vancouver tonight. Rain and fog delayed several snowboard events since the Winter Games began Feb. 12. White, the 2006 halfpipe gold medalist in Turin, has won both World Cup events he has entered since then. He captured his third consecutive X Games title — and fifth overall — in Aspen, Colorado, this month after crashing in a practice run. “I’d be lying to say that crash didn’t shake me up,” White told reporters before the Vancouver opening ceremony. “It was an amazing thing for that to happen to me, to shake that off and win the event.” His biggest challenge may come from Iouri Podladtchikov of Switzerland. Podladtchikov, who competed for Russia in 2006 and has since gained Swiss citizenship, finished second to White at this year’s World Cup and X Games. Today’s snowboard competitors will perform in front of a smaller crowd than expected after weather problems forced organizers to refund 28,000 standing-room tickets for six events, according to Caley Denton , head of ticketing for the Vancouver Olympic Committee. Fans in the standing-room area account for about 40 percent of the spectators at Cypress. To contact the reporters on this story: Michael Buteau in Vancouver at mbuteau@bloomberg.net , and Erik Matuszewski in Vancouver, at matuszewski@bloomberg.net and.

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Neuner, Ferry Win Biathlon Gold, Snow Delays Skiing

February 17, 2010

By Erik Matuszewski and Michael Buteau Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) — Magdalena Neuner of Germany won the women’s 10-kilometer biathlon pursuit and Bjorn Ferry of Sweden captured the men’s 12.5-kilometer pursuit today at the Vancouver Winter Olympics, where heavy snow postponed the men’s super- combined Alpine ski race. Neuner, 23, finished in 30 minutes, 16 seconds, a margin of 12.3 seconds in front of Slovakia’s Anastazia Kuzmina, who had won gold in the women’s 7.5-kilometer sprint. Marie Laure Brunet of France took the bronze at Whistler Olympic Park. Ferry, 31, pulled away from Christoph Sumann of Austria and France’s Vincent Jay after the event’s final shooting stage and finished in 33 minutes, 38.4 seconds. Sumann, who passed Jay over the closing stretch, crossed the line 16.5 seconds behind Ferry. It was the second medal for Jay, who won the men’s 10- kilometer sprint on Feb. 14. While today’s events in biathlon — which includes cross- country skiing and target shooting with a rifle — went off as scheduled in Whistler, British Columbia, Didier Defago of Switzerland had to wait for a chance at his second Olympic gold. The men’s super-combined event was postponed due to heavy snow at the Alpine skiing venue two hours north of Vancouver. Oldest Champion Defago, 32, became the oldest Olympic downhill winner yesterday, defeating two-time World Cup champions Aksel Lund Svindal of Norway and Bode Miller of the U.S. He was the first Swiss skier to win the downhill since Pirmin Zurbriggen in 1988 at the Calgary Games. The downhill had been pushed back from Feb. 13 because of poor conditions, including rain and fog, which have postponed at least five Alpine events and training sessions at Whistler Creekside. The super-combined includes one downhill run and one slalom run. The downhill portion now will be staged on Feb. 21, followed by the slalom run two days later. Training for the women’s downhill tomorrow also was canceled, another delay for American Lindsey Vonn , a two-time World Cup overall champion recovering from a shin injury. Switzerland has a Winter Games-best three gold medals after wins yesterday by Defago and Dario Cologna in the men’s 15- kilometer cross-country ski race. The U.S. leads all countries with eight medals, having picked up its second gold yesterday when Seth Wescott passed Canada’s Mike Robertson on the penultimate jump to successfully defend his title in men’s snowboard cross. More Medals Germany and France have six medals, followed by Canada with four, then Switzerland, Norway, South Korea and Italy with three. The super-combined competition had been one of five medal events scheduled for today. Lindsey Jacobellis of the U.S. aims to improve on her silver medal in the women’s snowboard cross in Turin, where she fell on the next-to-last jump while attempting a celebratory trick with a large lead. Jacobellis lost her balance, fell on her back was passed for the gold by Switzerland’s Tanja Frieden. Biathlon, Luge Rain and fog at Cypress Mountain pushed back the start of the by an hour. Weather problems also have forced organizers to refund 28,000 standing-room tickets for six snowboard events, at a cost of about $1.4 million, according to Caley Denton, head of ticketing for the Vancouver Olympic Committee. The Canadian men’s ice hockey team has an opening-round game today against Norway. Canada is seeking to become the first host country to capture an Olympic gold medal in hockey since 1980, when the U.S. won at Lake Placid, New York. “This event is so big and the guys want to do so well, they’ll do whatever they have to,” said former Detroit Red Wings captain Steve Yzerman , now executive director of the Canadian hockey team. “I believe it comes down to character. And we have 23 guys that have great character.” To contact the reporter on this story: Erik Matuszewski in Vancouver, at matuszewski@bloomberg.net and Michael Buteau in Vancouver, at mbuteau@bloomberg.net .

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France Wins Two Gold Medals on Second Day of Vancouver Olympics

February 14, 2010

By Erik Matuszewski Feb. 14 (Bloomberg) — Jason Lamy Chappuis of France beat Johnny Spillane of the U.S. by four-tenths of a second to win the gold medal in the Olympic Nordic combined event. Vincent Jay earlier won gold for France in the men’s biathlon 10-kilometer sprint, where favorite Ole Einar Bjoerndalen of Norway failed to add to his nine career medals. France is the first country to win two gold medals at the Vancouver Winter Games, where the U.S. leads the total medal standings with five. Spillane’s silver was the first medal for an American in Nordic combined, which features ski jumping and a 10-kilometer cross-country ski race. Lamy Chappuis, 23, outraced Spillane to the finish line to win in a time of 25 minutes, 47.1 seconds at Whistler Olympic Park. At the same venue earlier in the day, Jay, 24, finished more than 12 seconds ahead of silver medalist Emil Hegle Svendsen of Norway in the 10-kilometer biathlon, which features athletes cross-country skiing and shooting at fixed targets. Bjoerndalen, 36, who is three medals shy of the Winter Games-record of 12 held by Norwegian cross-country skier Bjorn Daehlie , finished in 17th place after a series of penalties. Three other medals are scheduled to be contested today, including the men’s luge title at Whistler’s sliding center, where Nodar Kumaritashvili, from the country of Georgia, was killed two days ago in a high-speed crash on a training run. Gold medals will also be awarded in women’s 3,000-meter speedskating and men’s freestyle skiing moguls. U.S. Leads Medal Standings The U.S. won four medals on the first day of Olympic competition yesterday. Freestyle skier Hannah Kearney of the U.S. won the last of yesterday’s five gold medals, beating defending Olympic champion Jennifer Heil on the final run of the women’s moguls competition to deny Canada its first gold on home soil. Heil’s silver is the lone medal through the first six events for Canada, which failed to win a gold medal the previous two times it hosted the Olympics — the 1976 Summer Games in Montreal and the 1988 Winter Games in Calgary. Apolo Anton Ohno took the silver medal behind South Korea’s Jung-Su Lee in the men’s 1,500-meter short track speedskating yesterday, tying Bonnie Blair for the most medals by an American athlete in the Winter Olympics. Dutch speedskater Sven Kramer set an Olympic record in winning the men’s 5,000 meters, while Anastazia Kuzmina gave Slovakia its first Winter gold by beating out Germany’s Magdalena Neuner in the women’s 7.5-kilometer biathlon sprint. Swiss ski jumper Simon Ammann won the Games’ first gold medal in the men’s normal hill event. Weather Postponement The women’s super-combined scheduled for today was postponed until Feb. 18 because of poor weather at the Whistler Creekside Alpine Skiing venue. The delay was welcomed by two- time World Cup champion Lindsey Vonn of the U.S., who is trying to recover from a deep bruise in her right shin. A downhill training run scheduled for today was also canceled. The men’s downhill that had been scheduled for yesterday was pushed back to tomorrow, as unseasonably warm temperatures have produced more rain than snow near Vancouver. To contact the reporter on this story: Erik Matuszewski in Vancouver, at matuszewski@bloomberg.net

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U.S. Tops Olympic Standings; Canada Is Denied Gold at Home

February 14, 2010

By Erik Matuszewski and Christopher Donville Feb. 14 (Bloomberg) — Freestyle skier Hannah Kearney denied Canada its first Olympic gold medal on home soil and vaulted the U.S. atop the medal standings after the first day of competition at the Winter Games in Vancouver. Kearney beat Canada’s defending Olympic champion Jennifer Heil , 26, on the final run of the women’s moguls competition to win the last of yesterday’s five gold medals. “I heard the roar of the crowd when Jenn got her score, so I knew I had to go for it,” said Kearney, 23, who was the favorite at the 2006 Games in Turin and failed to qualify for the finals. “I feel for her but I wanted that medal as well.” Canada failed to win a gold medal the previous two times it hosted the Olympics — the 1976 Summer Games in Montreal and the 1988 Winter Games in Calgary. The U.S. tops the Olympic standings with four medals, while South Korea with two is the only other country with multiple medals. Apolo Anton Ohno took the silver medal behind South Korea’s Jung-Su Lee in the men’s 1,500-meter short track speedskating, tying Bonnie Blair for the most medals by an American athlete in the Winter Olympics. Dutch speedskater Sven Kramer set an Olympic record in winning the men’s 5,000 meters, while Anastazia Kuzmina gave Slovakia its first Winter gold by beating out Germany’s Magdalena Neuner in the women’s 7.5-kilometer biathlon sprint. First Medal Swiss ski jumper Simon Ammann won the Games’ first gold medal in the men’s normal hill event as competition began a day after Nodar Kumaritashvili, a luger from the country of Georgia, was killed in a high-speed crash on a training run. Five more medals are scheduled to be decided today, when Norwegian biathlete Ole Einar Bjoerndalen seeks his 10th career Olympic medal as he competes in the men’s 10-kilometer sprint. Norwegian cross-country skier Bjorn Daehlie holds the Winter Games-record of 12 medals. The men’s luge title will be decided at Whistler’s sliding center. Though an investigation found no track deficiencies, organizers shortened the course by 175 meters (577 feet) to reduce speeds and offer “emotional” support to competitors after Kumaritashvili’s death. Gold medals are also scheduled to be awarded in women’s 3,000-meter speedskating, men’s freestyle skiing moguls and men’s Nordic combined, where brothers Jan and Tommy Schmid will compete for different countries. Born to Swiss parents in Norway, Tommy represents Switzerland while Jan switched his allegiance to Norway after competing for the Swiss in 2006. Race Postponed The women’s super-combined scheduled for today was postponed until Feb. 18 because of poor weather at the Whistler Creekside Alpine Skiing venue. The delay was welcomed by two- time World Cup champion Lindsey Vonn of the U.S., who is trying to recover from a deep bruise in her right shin. “I’m lucking out pretty heavily because of all the cancellations,” said Vonn, who is scheduled for a downhill training run today. “Normally I would be disappointed, but for my shin I think this is the best possible scenario.” The men’s downhill that had been scheduled for yesterday was pushed back to tomorrow, as unseasonably warm temperatures have produced more rain than snow near Vancouver. Outside the Olympic venues, about 200 demonstrators clashed with police in downtown Vancouver as they marched to protest against the Winter Games, resulting in several arrests, local police said. Protesters smashed windows and spray painted vehicles, Vancouver’s police department said in an e-mailed statement today. There were no confirmed injuries, police said. Heil’s Silver In yesterday’s final event, Heil took the lead in the women’s moguls with a score of 25.69 on the next-to-last run as Kearney waited at the top of the hill. Kearney then raced down the moguls course, executing a back flip and a 360-degree spin, to take the gold medal with 26.63 points. American Shannon Bahrke claimed the bronze. Heil said she wasn’t disappointed with second place. “I did what I wanted to do and I’m really proud,” Heil told reporters. “I felt like I was standing on the shoulders of so many Canadians. I felt like I had their wings on my back.” South Korea missed a 1-2-3 finish in short-track speed skating as Ho-Suk Lee and Si-Bak Sung collided and crashed on the last turn of the 1,500m to give Ohno the silver. American J.R. Celski took the bronze. “The whole race there was a lot of contact, bumping, grabbing. It was a crazy race,” Ohno said during a news conference. “Typically in short track, there’s not supposed to be any contact, or very little. But it was an aggressive race. It was a fast race, and it turned out very well (for me).” To contact the reporters on this story: Erik Matuszewski in Vancouver, at matuszewski@bloomberg.net Christopher Donville in Vancouver at cjdonville@bloomberg.net .

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Blackstone IPOs Show Barriers to Buyout Firms Returning Cash to Investors

February 12, 2010

By Jason Kelly, Cristina Alesci and Emily Thornton Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) — Blackstone Group LP’s setbacks this week in the market for new stocks show that private-equity firms have limited options for returning cash to investors and restoring confidence in the leveraged-buyout business. Slumping demand forced the world’s biggest LBO-fund manager to postpone the initial public offering of Travelport Ltd. and settle for less than half of what it initially sought in the share sale by Graham Packaging Co. New York-based Blackstone’s Merlin Entertainments Group Ltd. signaled yesterday it may delay plans to go public, saying it will “consider and debate its options.” The struggling IPO market and a 71 percent decline in announced private-equity takeovers last year continue to restrict the profits buyout firms share with the pensions, endowments and wealthy families that invest in their funds. That has left investors wary of putting cash into deals or new funds. “Going forward, we’re going to be a lot more hawkish” on investing in LBO funds, said William Atwood , executive director of the Illinois State Board of Investment in Chicago, which has money with Blackstone. “The environment continues to be very bad. It is going to be tough sledding.” Companies from Imperial Capital Group Inc. to FriendFinder Networks Inc. postponed IPOs as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell for four straight weeks, the longest stretch of declines since July. New Look The most recent: New Look Group Plc, the 1,000-store U.K. fashion retailer owned by Permira Advisers LLP and Apax Partners Worldwide LLP, which today put on hold a $1 billion share sale. The decision was made “in light of an unfavorable market backdrop,” the Weymouth, England-based company said in a statement. The nine U.S. companies that completed deals this year cut their offerings by an average of 28 percent from the maximum sought. Last year there were $16.5 billion of U.S. offerings, the least since 2003, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Profits distributed to the so-called limited partners who invest in buyout funds have been scarce. More than a third of funds raised in 2006 have yet to return any money to investors, according to data from London-based researcher Preqin Ltd. That became a contentious issue in 2008 and in part of 2009, when endowments and pensions faced cash crunches because of declines in their public-equity holdings. The IPOs were designed in part to appease them. Grumpy Investors “The LPs already are grumpy and the private-equity firms were trying to make them less so,” said Steven Kaplan , a professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business who studies buyouts. “This keeps them grumpy.” Blackstone Chairman Stephen Schwarzman , 62, said in October that he was aiming to take eight companies public amid signs of an IPO recovery. The December offering by Team Health Holdings Inc., a Knoxville, Tennessee-based medical-staffing company, went through only after Blackstone dropped the shares it sought to sell. “Our investors commit with us for the long term and can wait out the vagaries of the business cycle,” said Peter Rose , a spokesman for Blackstone, which has about $24 billion in private-equity assets under management. Graham Packaging, a York, Pennsylvania-based maker of plastic containers, sold stock at $10 a share, raising $167 million after seeking as much as $373 million. Travelport, a provider of travel-reservation systems, shelved its offer of shares in London at 210 pence to 290 pence ($3.29 to $4.54). Theme-park operator Merlin said yesterday in an e-mailed statement that all options, including an IPO, remain under consideration. The company doesn’t expect to make a decision in the near future, the statement said. KKR Raises Hopes Two deals from New York-based KKR & Co. , run by Henry Kravis and George Roberts , had given private-equity firms reason to hope they’d be able to resume selling companies. In August, the firm took Singapore-based chipmaker Avago Technologies Ltd. public in a deal that raised $745 million. KKR and Avago co- owner Silver Lake of Menlo Park, California, sold some of their shares in a secondary offering in January. Dollar General Corp., the Goodlettsville, Tennessee-based discount retailer KKR bought in 2007, went public in November for $21 a share. The stock has gained 5 percent since the deal, compared with a decline of 1.9 percent by the Bloomberg U.S. IPO Index and a 0.81 percent loss by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. Optimistic View The offerings came amid a year of improved demand for private equity-backed IPOs. There were 44 new offerings raising a combined $9.9 billion in 2009, with more than half coming in the fourth quarter, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP’s 2010 IPO Watch Report. “We believe the market is ripe for more IPOs this year,” said Scott Gehsmann , a partner in capital markets at PricewaterhouseCoopers’ transaction services group in New York, which advises buyout firms on IPOs. “ Private-equity firms are investing to ready portfolio companies for IPOs. It’s only a matter of time before they come to market.” Among the buyout-backed companies that have said they plan to go public are West Corp., an Omaha, Nebraska-based operator of call centers whose owners include Boston-based Thomas H. Lee Partners LLP, and Netherlands-based Sensata Technologies Holding BV , an electronics maker controlled by investors including Bain Capital LLC of Boston. Investors may favor better-known names, said Tim Walker , an IPO analyst at Hoover’s Inc. in Austin, Texas. “The appetite isn’t there in the market for these smaller, non-household name, run-of-the-mill companies,” Walker said. Toys R Us Renaissance Capital LLC, a Greenwich, Connecticut-based researcher that has followed IPOs since 1991, said companies waiting in the wings include retailer Toys R Us, based in Wayne, New Jersey, and hospital operator HCA Inc. of Nashville, Tennessee. Kristi Huller, a spokeswoman for KKR, which led the buyouts of both companies, declined to comment. Private-equity firms bought companies valued at a record $1.6 trillion from 2005 to 2007, before the global credit crisis brought deal-making to a halt. Buyout-fund managers spent almost two years unable to finance acquisitions or sell companies they owned — their main sources of profit. The firms earn their money through annual fees, usually about 2 percent of assets under management, and by taking a share of profits, about 20 percent. Impact on Fundraising Deals resumed on a smaller scale last year, when LBO firms announced $84.6 billion of transactions. The largest was TPG’s $5.1 billion purchase of Norwalk, Connecticut-based IMS Health Inc., a health-care information company. That deal was a fraction of the size of the biggest LBO, the $43.2 billion takeover, including assumed debt, of energy producer TXU Corp. of Dallas by KKR and Fort Worth, Texas-based TPG in 2007. The lack of profits is making investors less excited about putting money into new funds, Kaplan of the Booth School said. Fundraising dropped to a five-year low last year, with private- equity firms collecting $246 billion in commitments, according to Preqin. Private-equity managers probably will keep pushing to take companies public, although investors will be increasingly discerning. “It’s going to be an IPO market of haves and have-nots,” said Anthony Tutrone , head of alternatives for New York-based Neuberger Berman LLC. “Companies with weak earnings in less favored industries will have a tough time because investors don’t want to hear messy stories.” To contact the reporters on this story: Jason Kelly in New York at jkelly14@bloomberg.net ; Cristina Alesci in New York at Calesci2@bloomberg.net ; Emily Thornton in New York at emthornton@bloomberg.net

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Midas Fund’s Winmill Turns Gold’s Rise into 83% Return With Bets on Miners

February 11, 2010

By MaryAnn Busso Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) — Gold had a good year in 2009. Tom Winmill ’s Midas Fund had an even better one. The $125 million fund, which invests in companies that mine or process metals or other commodities, rose 83 percent last year. That return beat 95 percent of the fund’s peers, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. This year, the fund dropped 7.6 percent through Feb. 10. Its average annual return was a decline of 4.8 percent over three years and a gain of 13.5 percent for five years. Winmill, 50, says his training as a lawyer helps him sift through engineering reports on mining deposits, Bloomberg Markets reports in its March 2010 issue. “That’s much more important than putting on your hiking boots and walking around the mine,” he says. Among the items high on Winmill’s checklist when picking stocks: a miner’s ability to start production on time and on budget and to preserve the value of its shares. “I like to see a mining company that pays a dividend, occasionally does a stock buyback — instead of constant stock issuance — and doesn’t make dilutive acquisitions in order to extend their empire,” Winmill says. Those three things, combined with a good project, are key, he says. $1,500 Forecast As of January, Winmill had the majority of the fund’s assets in stocks of gold-mining companies. Returns on miners’ shares tend to amplify the returns on gold because of the companies’ operating leverage, Winmill says. That gave the fund a boost from a bullish market as investors sought to protect the value of their holdings. “The devaluation of the dollar and the bursting of the bond bubble are going to hurt a lot of investors,” Winmill says. “And inflation is going to hurt a lot of savers.” In January, Winmill predicted gold prices will average $1,200 an ounce (31 grams) during the first quarter and increase to $1,500 by the end of the year. Gold rose 24 percent last year. This year, it dropped 2 percent to trade at $1,072 an ounce on Feb. 10. Among the miners that meet Winmill’s investment test is Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. The Vancouver-based company is developing Alaska’s Pebble gold and copper project in partnership with Anglo American Plc. Shares of Northern Dynasty, which is 20 percent owned by Rio Tinto Group, rose 124 percent in 2009. This year, the stock rose 3 percent to trade at $8.52 on Feb. 10. “They’ve got experienced, well-capitalized partners who really know how to get the ore out of the ground,” Winmill says. Gold and Silver Midas also owns shares of Jaguar Mining Inc. The Concord, New Hampshire-based company is bringing older gold mines in Brazil back into production. Winmill says Jaguar’s output might reach 600,000 ounces in about five years, up from 115,000 ounces in 2008. He says the company is likely to be acquired. Jaguar’s shares jumped 114 percent in 2009. This year, they fell 14 percent to trade at $9.60 on Feb. 10. Midas’s holdings also include Silvercorp Metals Inc. and Fresnillo Plc . Shares of Vancouver-based Silvercorp, which has been buying high-grade mines in China, rose 210 percent last year. Stock of Mexico City-based Fresnillo, which operates silver mines in Mexico, was up 244 percent in 2009. Winmill says he looks at gold through four filters: U.S. fiscal policy, U.S. monetary policy, market supply and demand, and geopolitical events. Preserving Value Growing U.S. budget deficits will reduce the dollar’s purchasing power, he says. From 2001 through 2009, U.S. money supply almost doubled to $8.5 trillion. During the next decade, U.S. gross domestic product of about $14 trillion is likely to grow an average of only 1 to 2 percent a year, Winmill says. “We’ll double the supply of dollars and have about the same amount of wealth, so the dollar will have about half the purchasing power that it has today,” he says. Given that assumption, gold will be a way to preserve value, he says. As the deficit expands, the U.S. Federal Reserve will have less ability to control inflation, Winmill says. He forecasts a 3 percent inflation rate by the end of this year and as much as 5 percent in 2012. The U.S. consumer price index rose 2.7 percent in December from a year earlier. The Fed is holding its target for the federal funds rate at zero to 0.25 percent to stimulate manufacturing and exports , and that’s driving the dollar down, Winmill says. “It’s great for the price of gold,” he says. “As the dollar goes down, it’s going to take more dollars to buy the same ounce of gold.” Supply and Demand The supply-and-demand outlook is mildly bullish: Scrap supply is up, jewelry demand is down, central banks have been buyers of gold and mined supply is trending lower, Winmill says. The least-important filter for analyzing gold is geopolitical events such as impending wars, he says, since prices usually reflect the worst expectations. For a short-term strategy, it’s better to buy gold when things calm down and sell when there’s maximum pessimism, he says. Winmill, who grew up in Locust, New Jersey, graduated from Yale University in 1981 and earned a law degree from the University of Washington four years later. After working as a lawyer in Seattle, he joined Bull & Bear Group Inc. in 1988. The New York-based investment management firm, which was headed by his father at the time, changed its name to Winmill & Co. in 1999. The firm bought the Midas Fund in 1995. After gold dropped to a low, the firm terminated its agreement with the fund’s subadviser in 1999, leaving Winmill to help reorganize the fund’s investments. He took over as portfolio manager of the fund in 2002. ‘Terrific Spot’ In 2008, Winmill and his wife moved from New York to Walpole, New Hampshire, to be closer to their two sons, who were going to school in the state. Winmill says he’s taken to rural life. He splits wood and taps the maple trees on his land. Last spring, he boiled the sap to make maple syrup. “We got about 2- 1/2 gallons,” he says. The steam from the process also peeled some wallpaper in his 1866 house, he says with a laugh. The Midas Fund isn’t only about gold, Winmill says. “I’m not a gold bug,” he says. “I’m a capital-appreciation bug.” To find returns for investors, the fund has the flexibility to invest in platinum, copper and other commodities, he says. At the moment, it doesn’t have to. “Right now, I think gold is in a terrific spot,” he says. To contact the reporter on this story: MaryAnn Busso in New York at mbusso@bloomberg.net ;

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Small Business Owners Press For Strong CFPA To Defend Them From Wall Street

February 10, 2010

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and its GOP allies have been busy warning that an independent Consumer Financial Protection Agency will hurt small business — but a growing number of small business owners are saying just the opposite. When asked to speak for themselves, they say a strong CFPA is the only thing that can protect them from the predatory practices of the corporate titans represented by the Chamber. Small business owners, after all, frequently wind up using personal credit cards to cover their expenses. Consequently, they’re often victimized by the kinds of deceptive interest rates and fee structures that the CFPA could do away with or otherwise regulate. Small business owners may have created two out of three net new jobs in the past decade and a half, but they say that big businesses are strangling their finances and killing those jobs. “The financial crisis has demonstrated the need for a new independent federal agency to promote financial product safety and establish clear, enforceable rules of the road. Business owners and consumers need full and fair disclosure of the costs and risks of financial products and services,” reads part of the petition circulated by Business for Shared Prosperity, a progressive business group. “A Consumer Financial Protection Agency will expose unsafe products and services and encourage accountability and fair competition. It will help ensure we do not repeat the reckless practices we are paying dearly for today.” Some 200 small business owners and leaders of small-business advocacy organizations throughout the United States have signed the petition, which urges the Senate to include an independent consumer protection agency in its financial regulatory reform legislation. Additionally, two-thirds of the 1,200-plus business owners polled by the progressive small-business group Main Street Alliance favor the creation of the proposed CFPA. The consumer agency made it into the House regulatory reform bill that passed in November, albeit with numerous exemptions for favored industries. Among the petition’s signatories is Margot Dorfman, the CEO of the U.S. Women’s Chamber of Commerce, who charged the financial sector with “extraordinary abuse of small businesses and everyday Americans” by means of toxic products and willfully misleading business practices. “It is time for our political leaders to act to support the financial protection and well-being of all Americans,” Dorfman said in a statement. The megabanks and their allies in the U.S. Chamber proper are the last people who should be speaking on behalf of small business, said Lew Prince, another petition signatory. “Politicians love to point out that most new jobs are created by small business,” said Prince, who runs Vintage Vinyl in St. Louis, Mo. “They should listen to the business owners who didn’t wreck the economy and want real reform to prevent a repeat.” A new level of transparency in small-business loans and other financial products might even help the big banks in the long term, said Tim Duncan, Chairman of American Business Leaders for Financial Reform, if they can “avoid the mindset that can’t see beyond the next quarter’s results.” But whatever happens to Wall Street’s bonuses, “honest and affordable credit is fundamental to business success and nurturing the innovation needed to keep the U.S. competitive in the world economy,” said fellow petition signatory Alan Gregerman, the president of the Silver Spring, Md.-based business consulting firm Venture Works. “A lack of appropriate regulation has hurt America and American businesses. We can and must do better.”

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Australia- Silver Mines unveils positive results from Webbs Silver Project

February 10, 2010

Australia- Silver Mines unveils positive results from Webbs Silver Project

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Washington, Baltimore Face Record Snow as Manhattan Prepares for 4 Inches

February 5, 2010

By Brian K. Sullivan Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) — Washington and Baltimore prepared today for what may be a record snowfall from an East Coast storm that prompted blizzard warnings for parts of New Jersey and tornado watches in Florida. As much as 30 inches (76 centimeters) of snow is forecast to fall overnight and into tomorrow in the Baltimore-Washington region, which would shatter records in both cities, according to the National Weather Service in Sterling, Virginia. The forecast drove up the price of natural gas futures, as well as area power prices. “Heavy snow will develop tonight to produce near-blizzard and extremely dangerous winter weather conditions tonight through Saturday morning,” according to a weather service bulletin. In Manhattan, the storm may leave 2 to 4 inches of snow, about half of what was predicted earlier, the agency said at 4:28 p.m. Its winter storm watch was lowered to an advisory. New York is on the northern edge of the storm, so Staten Island, which is under a storm warning, may get more snow than the Bronx, and even a small deviation could change the outlook, the agency said. “New York City is probably one of the toughest to call right now because there is such a sharp edge on the storm, from where there is nothing, to where there is a foot,” Tom Kines , a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania, said earlier today. Washington’s record was set by the 1922 “Knickerbocker Storm” that dropped 28 inches of snow, while Baltimore’s record of 26.8 inches came during the 2003 “Presidents’ Day Storm,” the weather service reported. Travel Disrupted The storm prompted the cancellation of more than 175 airline flights at Washington airports , left more than 17,990 people without power in North and South Carolina and drove up the price of natural gas. Flood warnings were posted from Florida to North Carolina, and blizzard warnings went up in New Jersey, including Atlantic City, as well as Delaware and Maryland’s Chesapeake Bay coast. In Florida, heavy thunderstorms swept across the center of the state, and at least one waterspout was seen near Tampa. Radar picked up a tornado near Bowling Green, about 80 miles southwest of Orlando, the weather service said. Natural gas for March delivery rose 9.9 cents, or 1.8 percent, to settle at $5.515 per million British thermal units at 2:36 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices advanced 7.5 percent this week. Virginia Emergency Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell declared a state of emergency in advance of the storm, while federal government offices in Washington closed early. Philadelphia will declare a snow emergency at 8 p.m., according to the city’s Web Site . The Amtrak national passenger rail system said most service to the south of Washington has been canceled, although the Silver Service between New York and Miami, site of this weekend’s Super Bowl game between the New Orleans Saints and the Indianapolis Colts, will operate. Power prices in the regions affected by the storm soared to four-week highs on the Intercontinental Exchange. In the New England Power Pool, electricity traded today for delivery on Feb. 8 surged $13.12, or 21 percent, to $76.73 a megawatt-hour. Power in the PJM Interconnection, a benchmark for the mid-Atlantic region, jumped $17.19, or 35 percent, to $66.65 a megawatt-hour. The storm is playing havoc with Virginia and Washington budgets. Virginia has already spent the $79 million it had budgeted this year for snow removal and will pay for the current storm from a $25 million reserve fund, according a statement by its Transportation Department . When the reserve fund is depleted, the state will start taking money from maintenance programs. Washington had $6.2 million for plowing and “we’re probably over budget at this point,” Karyn Le Blanc, a city spokeswoman, said by telephone. To contact the reporter on this story: Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at bsullivan10@bloomberg.net .

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Obama Announcement Revives Regulatory Push

January 22, 2010

President Barack Obama’s new proposal to limit megabanks’ trading activities wouldn’t actually break up “too big to fail” institutions — but it does reflect a more combative, populist attitude from the White House that could go a long way toward putting some spine back into the movement to re-regulate the financial industry. In his remarks Thursday , Obama laid out a proposal to require banks and the companies that own them to divest from any hedge funds or private-equity firms they own, invest in or sponsor. He also called for a cap on a firm’s liabilities relative to market share, so a small group of banks won’t be able to hold an inordinate amount of control over the financial system. And he would require banks and their parent companies to halt all Wall Street-like trading they do strictly for their own profit. If the banks don’t want to quit those businesses, then they can no longer be banks. Even as public outrage has continued to grow against Wall Street — where bailed-out and taxpayer-subsidized firms are recording tremendous profits and bonuses — the nation’s biggest banks have been remarkably successful at slowing and weakening the legislative drive to re-regulate them. This latest effort, though, is where the real fight will begin, says Simon Johnson, a former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund who’s now a professor at MIT and an influential economics and policy blogger . “Everything else was a warm-up act,” Johnson said. The reason why is because these latest proposals strike at how big Wall Street banks can make a lot of money. After years of loose lending policies and giving mortgages and credit cards to anyone with a pulse, big banks like JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Bank of America are losing money as those loans sour and they’re forced to reserve tens of billions for anticipated future losses. But big banks can make big bucks with their Wall Street-like trading operations. Bank of America’s global-markets unit turned a $7.2 billion profit in 2009 versus $6.3 billion for the entire bank. JPMorgan Chase’s investment bank division enjoyed a $6.9 billion profit for the year, making up 59 percent of the firm’s total profits. Goldman Sachs’s trading operation raked in $34.4 billion in revenues in 2009, more than three-quarters of the firm’s total revenue. And right now, they have a huge advantage over other financial institutions: a massive, continuing taxpayer subsidy. The financial markets view the megabanks as genuinely being too big to fail, so that the government will step in should any of them be in serious danger. Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein acknowledged that last week during a hearing on Capitol Hill. The result is that creditors know loaning them money is essentially risk-free, and are willing to lend at lower rates than if there was a chance they would fail. Also, banks of all sizes enjoy access to the Federal Reserve’s discount lending window, which supplies them with cash at low cost that they can access at anytime. The idea that they can use that money to fund their trading is what has members of Congress like Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D-Pa.) up in arms. “Financial firms that want to play in a casino need to have their own resources to cover their bets and not assume that tax dollars are available in reserve if their bets fail,” he said in November . Banks also have federal deposit insurance, which allows banks to use deposits to fund their trading activities — knowing that if they ever failed, taxpayers would foot the bill to protect the depositors. It’s this kind of behavior that Obama now says he wants to limit. Combined with more stringent regulation, and requirements that firms cut back on their borrowing relative to their capital and keep more cash aside to protect against losses, his proposals should theoretically limit the kind of crazy borrowing and reckless investing that led to the financial crisis. But there are a few catches. For one, Congress has to approve the plans. Also, existing big banks will not need to shrink or be broken up, despite the fact that the country’s four biggest bank-holding companies — Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Wells Fargo — collectively hold $7.4 trillion in assets. To put that in perspective, that’s 52 percent of the country’s total output in 2008. Johnson said he is “quite disappointed” with the proposal’s stated goal of limiting future megabank growth, as opposed to cutting them down to size. He argues that the big banks are so big that if they ever needed a bailout, “the government would give them one.” “The litmus test is to see if Goldman Sachs is forced to break up into four or five pieces,” Johnson said of Wall Street’s most successful and powerful firm. “Then it would be victory. Sanity would be restored. “But if Goldman is kept at its current size, then this will have failed,” he said. Goldman Sachs has $883 billion in assets, according to its latest regulatory filing with the Federal Reserve. Johnson said the firm should be in the $100-200 billion range, at most. It had about $270 billion in assets in 1998, he added. And another catch: There’s still little clarity on some key details of Obama’s proposal. For example, while the proposal aims to cap liabilities, it doesn’t spell out what, if anything, it will do about banks’ control over other areas of the market. The Big Four banks control much of the credit card industry as well as home mortgages. Also, thanks to bank mergers brought about by the collapse in 2007-08, Bank of America and Wells Fargo are both currently in violation of a federal law that limits banks’ share of national deposits to 10 percent. There wasn’t any word on whether BofA and Wells would be forced to divest. Also, there’s no mention of how it will treat the trillions of dollars the big banks keep off their balance sheets by exploiting traditional accounting rules. Some banks keep more off their books than on — Wells Fargo has more than $2 trillion in assets off its books, nearly double the $1.2 trillion it has on its balance sheet. If the proposal only addresses the liabilities on banks’ balance sheets, then there will be an incentive to move things off the books. Regulators and investors would be in the dark. And while much fuss has been made about the proposal to eliminate proprietary trading (essentially trading with a firm’s own money), it’s actually much harder to enforce. “It’s going to be tricky,” said a senior official with one of the federal bank regulatory agencies. “On the one hand, there are transactions that a bank does that are customer driven and are probably pretty clearly defined and everybody knows what they are. And then at the other end, there’s a whole bunch of transactions that are clearly being done on their own behalf. “But there’s this big area in the middle, where during the day they’re doing a whole bunch of things for their customers, and they’re doing them on their own book. At the end of the day…it’s going to be hard to know which ones are proprietary and which ones are solely on behalf of customers. “And maybe there’s going to be a little bit in there anyhow that they did for themselves.” Douglas Elliott, a former investment banker and currently a fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institution, said that firms that want to remain banks can just dump their specially-designated proprietary trading units and move those traders to divisions that are trading for clients, mixing it all together and making it harder for regulators to distinguish between what’s done solely for a firm and what’s done just for clients. Similarly, the ban on owning hedge funds and private equity funds doesn’t prohibit banks from lending to them or providing financing, which they already do. “That would still be essentially allowed under this proposal,” another senior administration official said in an interview. So while banks wouldn’t be allowed to own a hedge fund, they could provide all of a hedge fund’s funding, for example. “This is not the silver bullet. This is part of a broader plan,” the official said. And Johnson expects the banks to fight. “Banks are going to push back hard,” he said. “[JPMorgan Chase CEO] Jamie Dimon will be living in [Treasury Secretary Timothy] Geithner’s office.”

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EBay’s Profit Beats Estimates as More Holiday Shoppers Sought Online Deals

January 20, 2010

By Joseph Galante Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) — EBay Inc. , the most-visited U.S. e-commerce site, reported fourth-quarter profit that topped analysts’ estimates, boosted by the holiday shopping season and the sale of its Skype Internet-calling business. Net income rose to $1.35 billion, or $1.02 a share, from $367.2 million, or 29 cents, a year ago, the San Jose, California-based company said today in a statement. Excluding some items, profit was 44 cents a share. Analysts had estimated 40 cents on average in a survey by Bloomberg. EBay’s stock rose 69 percent last year, driven by growth in its PayPal payment processing unit and improvements to its main e-commerce site. Chief Executive Officer John Donahoe also has made it easier for retailers to put excess inventory on EBay. He expects the company to keep pace with the broader e-commerce market in 2010 after slumping the past two years. “It’s good to see them show a reacceleration of the business,” said Aaron Kessler , an analyst at Kaufman Brothers LP in San Francisco. He recommends the stock, which he doesn’t own. EBay rose 70 cents, or 3.2 percent, to $22.93 in late trading after the announcement. The shares had fallen $1.03, or 4.4 percent, to $22.23 in regular Nasdaq Stock Market trading. Fourth-quarter sales climbed 16 percent to $2.37 billion, compared with the $2.3 billion predicted by analysts. First Quarter Revenue in the first quarter will be $2.1 billion to $2.2 billion, EBay said. Profit will be 39 cents to 41 cents a share, excluding some items. Analysts had anticipated sales of $2.16 billion and profit of 40 cents a share. For the full year, EBay forecast revenue of $8.8 billion to $9.1 billion, representing growth of as much as 12 percent — excluding the impact of Skype. Earnings will be $1.63 to $1.68 a share, the company said. Analysts had projected sales of $9 billion and profit of $1.61. Total online retail spending for the November-to-December holiday season rose 4 percent to $29.1 billion from the year earlier, according to Reston, Virginia-based research firm ComScore Inc. That contrasts with a 1.1 percent gain in total retail holiday sales, according to the National Retail Federation. Forrester Research Inc. predicts that online sales in the U.S. will expand 13 percent this year and 10 percent in 2011. “They’ve benefited from both a much healthier global economy and a pretty strong holiday shopping season for online retail,” said Scott Kessler , an equity analyst at Standard & Poor’s in New York. He recommends buying the shares, which he doesn’t own himself. Gross Volume Gross merchandise volume, the value of all goods that users sold on EBay sites, rose 24 percent to $14.2 billion last quarter. Investors watch gross merchandise volume to gauge the strength of EBay’s businesses, according to Benchmark Co. The Marketplaces unit, which includes the main e-commerce site, ticket reseller StubHub and the classified advertising service Kijiji, has typically accounted for most of EBay’s revenue . EBay’s Payments business, made up of PayPal and BillMeLater, saw total payment volume rise 34 percent to $21.4 billion. Revenue at PayPal and BillMeLater rose 28 percent to $795.6 million. EBay expects PayPal’s sales to reach $5 billion by 2011, making the unit its biggest moneymaker. PayPal estimates that it controls about 10 percent of online payments worldwide. Skype, the biggest provider of international calling services, contributed $112 million in revenue through the midpoint of the quarter. On Nov. 19, the business was sold to a group of investors led by private-equity firm Silver Lake for about $2 billion. EBay retained a 30 percent stake in Skype. To contact the reporter on this story: Joseph Galante in San Francisco at jgalante3@bloomberg.net

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Turner’s Plan to Curb `Socially Useless’ Trades Makes U.K. Bankers See Red

January 8, 2010

By Caroline Binham Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) — Sitting in his London office, Adair Turner is a study in gray eminence. A charcoal wool suit complements his silver fringe of hair, and he’s framed by a window that looks out to a leaden winter sky punctured by steely skyscrapers. The towers are home to Barclays Plc , HSBC Holdings Plc and other lenders Turner watches over as chairman of the U.K. Financial Services Authority, Britain’s financial regulator. The setting belies Turner’s growing reputation in the City, London’s financial district, as a troublemaker. Turner, a former director general of the Confederation of British Industry , or CBI, the main U.K. business lobby, might have reasonably been expected to act as a bureaucratic booster for banks and investment firms reeling from the global recession. Instead, since taking the job in September 2008, he’s used his time as regulator to scold the financial services industry for growing too large on the back of risky products that he says offer little value to society, Bloomberg Markets magazine reported in its February issue. To reduce the appetite for speculative risk, Turner is promoting a levy on financial transactions to divert money to the poor and support efforts to address climate change. The so-called Tobin tax is named after the late U.S. economist James Tobin , a Nobel laureate who proposed a surcharge on currency trading to deter speculation. “I believe in markets; I believe in enterprise,” says Turner, who numbers Franklin D. Roosevelt and British economist John Maynard Keynes among his personal heroes. “But I have always believed that market economies will not of themselves combine that with environmental sustainability or with a reasonably just and good society. I believe that capitalism needs to be saved from itself.” Pinstriped Provocateur Turner — a member of the British House of Lords and head of the country’s Committee on Climate Change — seems to enjoy his role as a pinstriped provocateur, casually remarking that he also supports the decriminalization of drugs. “I very strongly believe that society is best served by not having shibboleths, areas where we can’t go,” he says. Turner’s public campaign has helped nudge British lawmakers into getting tough on banks. U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown told a Group of 20 nations meeting in November that he supported a global transaction tax. Then, on Dec. 9, Brown’s government imposed a temporary 50 percent levy on bank bonuses, which applies to awards over 25,000 pounds ($39,800) issued from that day to April 5. The charge will be paid by banks instead of employees. ‘Core Issue’ Turner is using his post and influence to ask that bankers consider what purpose they serve in society. “To say that in Britain, in London, as head of the FSA, is really something one would not expect,” says Tommaso Padoa- Schioppa , European chairman of Promontory Financial Group , a regulatory advisory firm. “He addressed a core issue: that the size of finance may have grown beyond what is serving a useful purpose for the economy,” says Padoa-Schioppa, who was Italy’s finance minister from 2006 to 2008. Turner is lambasting an industry still smarting from the credit crisis. Financial services accounted for 10.1 percent of the U.K.’s gross domestic product and 27.5 percent of corporate taxes in 2007, according to statistics from the U.K. government and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. More than 1 million Britons were employed in financial services that year, according to the U.K. Office for National Statistics. The London-based Centre for Economics and Business Research estimates that City firms have cut as many as 50,000 jobs since the beginning of 2008. Covering Risk In the wake of the global recession, Turner’s FSA is proposing that U.K. banks at least double the amount of capital they set aside to cover the risks of proprietary trading and bolster the level of shareholder equity available to absorb potential losses from activities such as lending. The FSA also wants to require big banks to draw up so-called living wills to guide regulators on how to wind up their operations the next time a disaster strikes. Turner triggered controversy in August when he first floated the transaction tax idea and criticized the size of the U.K. financial sector in an interview in Prospect, a British journal. At a black-tie gathering of financial executives in London on Sept. 22, Turner said banks should move away from products, such as complex derivatives, that don’t benefit society. “Some financial activities which proliferated over the last 10 years were socially useless, and some parts of the system were swollen beyond their optimal size,” he told the gathering. ‘Appalled, Disgusted, Ashamed’ Turner’s remarks have been condemned by executives who say it’s ridiculous to introduce a moral dimension to regulation. “Quite honestly, I am appalled, disgusted, ashamed and hugely embarrassed,” wrote Howard Wheeldon , a senior strategist at BGC Partners LP, in an August note. “How dare he?” Wheeldon now says. “Markets will decide if something is too big or too small. It’s not for an individual, however powerful, to slam and damn nearly 1 million people.” Michael Spencer , chief executive officer of London-based broker ICAP Plc , joined the chorus of critics in late November. “I was genuinely offended,” Spencer said at an industry awards dinner in London. “Using his logic, I presume he would describe Porsche as socially useless for making cars that go twice the speed limit or Jimmy Choo for making shoes in dozens of different colors.” Turner is mostly unrepentant. While his words may have been imperfect, he now says, he stands by the sentiments behind them. “I wish I had said ‘economically useless’ rather than ‘socially useless,’ as it would have been more precise,” he says. Global Influence Now, Turner has a potentially more powerful forum for his ideas: the G-20. As a member of the global Financial Stability Board , he’s been asked by the G-20’s central bankers and finance ministers to propose ways in which governments should regulate international firms such as Deutsche Bank AG and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. His brief is to explore whether banks’ trading arms should be split from their deposit-taking units. Turner has said he’s against such a divide and instead favors surcharges on riskier trades to make them less attractive. He has also proposed requiring lenders to set up separate regional subsidiaries so that bank failures can be contained, helping to prevent the market seizures that followed the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc . Power, Charisma The son of a town planner, Jonathan Adair Turner has displayed a political suppleness throughout his public career. At the University of Cambridge, where he studied history and economics, he was chairman of the student Conservative Association , only to shift his allegiance to the now-defunct center-left Social Democratic Party in 1981. Though Turner was given a peerage in 2005 by the Labour government, he joined the House of Lords as a cross-bench, or unaffiliated, member. “There are very few people out there who have his charisma,” Wheeldon says. “Power seems to ooze from his fingertips.” After graduating with top honors from Cambridge in 1978, Turner worked as an economics tutor and joined McKinsey & Co. four years later, eventually opening the management consulting firm’s banking practice in Eastern Europe and Russia. It was at McKinsey that he met his Irish-born wife, Orna Ni-Chionna , with whom he has two daughters. In 1995, he became director general of the CBI at the age of 39. ‘Red Adair’ At the CBI, Turner built a relationship with Labour Party leader Tony Blair and was dubbed “Red Adair” by the British press, a play on the name of the late American oil-well firefighter. At the time, Labour officials regularly met with City executives to assure them that the party was friendly to business. Blair became prime minister following Labour’s landslide win in May 1997, ending four terms of Conservative rule that began with Margaret Thatcher’s election in 1979. “The CBI in the old days was the bulwark of the Thatcher regime,” says Simon Gleeson , a regulatory lawyer at Clifford Chance LLP in London. “Adair was seen to be extending the CBI hand of friendship to the Blairites. For the mainstream CBI, this was just the most radical thing.” As one of his first acts as chancellor of the Exchequer in Blair’s government, Brown created the FSA in 1997 and divided oversight for the financial system among it, the Bank of England and the Treasury. In 2002, Blair appointed Turner to head a government commission on the U.K.’s pension system. Turner’s 2005 report recommended requiring all workers to enroll in a pension program and called for boosting the retirement age to 68 from 65. The proposals were initially rejected by Brown for being too costly. Today, both major parties endorse Turner’s plan to keep people working longer, following bank rescue deals that have cost U.K. taxpayers about 850 billion pounds. Stage Double Turner, named FSA chairman by now-Prime Minister Brown’s government in 2008, may lose his job after the next general election, which must be held by June. The opposition Conservatives have pledged to abolish the FSA and hand regulation back to the Bank of England. Thanks in part to his public profile, Turner currently appears as a character in a David Hare play about the financial crisis called “The Power of Yes.” The drama, based on interviews with bankers and investors, reaches a climax with Turner’s character noting that following the recession, talented people may turn their backs on financial careers to battle climate change or drive medical research. In real life, Turner is just as skeptical about the size of the industry he regulates. “There is a confusion that blew up over the years that the FSA ought to be the cheerleader for London’s financial services industry,” he says. “It’s not the role of the regulator to make the industry as large as possible. I think some people get confused about that.” After Turner’s yearlong campaign to challenge presumptions in the City, there’s little doubt that the days of uncritical oversight are over. — Editors: David Ellis , Gail Roche To contact the reporters on this story: Caroline Binham in London at cbinham@bloomberg.net ;

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Woods Can’t Match Beltway Nihilists, Losers: Margaret Carlson

December 24, 2009

Commentary by Margaret Carlson Dec. 24 (Bloomberg) — Here is a holiday gift to those responsible citizens who have been dutifully following the health-care debate: You may now take a break until January when the Senate and House get down to reconciling differences in their two bills in conference. That will be slightly more difficult than reconciling Tiger and Elin Woods but at least the ordeal doesn’t begin until after the last Champagne cork is popped on New Year’s Eve. Right now, you need pay no mind to the strutting and fretting you see on C-Span. It signifies nothing. Republicans have decided to be sore losers. Picture the New Orleans Saints refusing to leave the field after the Dallas Cowboys ended their winning streak last Saturday. That’s what members of the oldest deliberative body in the world are doing by invoking rarely used parliamentary rules to keep members at the Capitol until a vote at 7:30 tonight. This Gang of 40 is giddy over the prospect of stealing Christmas. At one point, Republicans were so caught up in their mindless sport that supporting the troops gave way to running out the clock by stalling their much-beloved Pentagon spending bill. Emerging from yet another strategy meeting, Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee preened for the waiting cameras. “I’ve never seen our conference more united,” he said. When asked what he hoped to accomplish with the delay, he said, “I don’t know it would accomplish anything.” With that bit of nihilism, I have no hope for peace on Earth or goodwill toward men on Capitol Hill. But let’s give medical ratios and insurance exchanges a rest and gather round the hearth for a few gifts for the politicos on your list: — For Republicans, even though current antics deserve lumps of coal, I have the head of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid . Other than House Speaker Nancy Pelosi , there is no prize greater. The former boxer is likely to go down in Nevada where polls have him trailing, in large part for passing a health-care bill Nevadans are decidedly against. It makes his efforts to craft the bill look selfless and noble. But nobility doesn’t run the tables in the Silver State. In a Rasmussen Reports poll this month, Reid gets 43 percent of the vote against each of three little-known opponents, which suggests voters are ready to punish the incumbent. — For the very conservative Republicans on your list hoping to purge infidels from the party, I give you the likely defeat of the once shining light of the party with presidential ambitions, Florida Governor Charlie Crist, in the primary for an open Senate seat. Crist made the mistake of man-hugging the president when he came to Florida pushing his stimulus plan. Now, out of virtually nowhere has come a young state senator, Marco Rubio , flashing the picture of said hug, to lunge ahead of Crist, who seems dazed by the turn of events. In August, Crist led Rubio 53 percent to 31 percent. They’re now tied at 43 percent each. One third of primary voters like Rubio, compared with a 19 percent positive rating for Crist. With 1-in- 5 voters unsure, there is still room for Rubio to grow. — For Democrats, I don’t have much. It’s been a tough few months. With a Democratic president saving the economy, the sick and Afghanistan and all the sausage-making that entails, 2010 won’t be pretty. Charlie Cook , the most respected and most often-right political prognosticator in the business, says Democrats could lose 20-30 seats in the House and as many as six in the Senate. Open seats will go Republicans; Democrats won’t knock off any incumbent Republicans. Ouch. — For independents and those of both parties who disdain party switchers, no matter the direction in which they move, I do have the very possible defeat of former Republican (for 45 years) now Democrat Arlen Specter since earlier this year. Other than supporting stem-cell research (Specter has Hodgkin’s disease), Specter hewed closely to his party, voting for Bush’s spending, tax cuts for the wealthy, Iraq war, and serving as co- chair of the Bush-Cheney campaign in 2004. Specter had a near-death experience in 2004, and was almost beaten from his right flank in a primary by Club for Growth conservative Pat Toomey . Switching parties means he doesn’t have to face Toomey in a primary, but will in the general election where polls now show him trailing . The real irony is that Democrats might foresee Specter losing to Toomey and so rally around Democratic Congressman Joe Sestak . The primary loss Specter hoped to escape befalls him anyway. The killer number for Specter is that half of Pennsylvania’s voters say he doesn’t deserve to be re-elected. — For those who have heard enough about and from former vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin , there’s no relief in sight. Presidential wannabe Mitt Romney has promised to beat her at the bookstores, if not at the polls, when his tome, “No Apology,” comes out this March. He says he’ll have 10,000 people fill the Salt Palace in Salt Lake City. He may have to apologize for that prediction as Palin continues to catch up with all-time bestsellers, including the Pope with “Going Rogue” at 5 million — and that’s not counting holiday sales. — For those of both parties grieving the demise of golf, I have word that the Tiger Woods Redemption Tour will begin in April at the Masters in Augusta, the green velvet cocoon where there will be no perp walk through the paparazzi thanks to a strict no-tabloid policy. With a low People magazine reading crowd, he doesn’t have to worry about catcalls. Peace and prosperity returns to Nike, Accenture and all who get their jollies swinging a nine-iron. (Margaret Carlson, author of “Anyone Can Grow Up: How George Bush and I Made It to the White House” and former White House correspondent for Time magazine, is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.) Click on “Send Comment” in the sidebar display to send a letter to the editor. To contact the writer of this column: Margaret Carlson in Washington at mcarlson3@bloomberg.net

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Looking For Zhu Zhu Pets? Shoppers Who Delay Won’t Find Hot Items This Year

December 22, 2009

NEW YORK — Looking for UGG boots? Or what about the last string of holiday lights or inflatable Santas to spruce up the lawn? You might be out of luck. Some last-minute holiday shoppers are facing disappointment. Stores are running out of key holiday items – and not just Zhu Zhu pets, those robotic hamsters that have been hard to find since before Thanksgiving. Even sparkly tops, skirts and scarves are running scarce at some stores. Bloomingdale’s spokeswoman Anne Keating said that over the past week the upscale department store chain has sold out of practically “anything that sparkles.” Even shoppers who got a head-start faced some hurdles beyond the toy aisles. At Mall of America, the nation’s biggest shopping center, an $85 wallet by popular designer Tory Burch that comes in an array of colors – blue, gold and black – was sold out before Thanksgiving. The mall had planned to promote the item in its holiday advertisements, but realized it had sold out, according to Mall of America spokeswoman Bridget Jewell. It’s a switch from last year, when piles of holiday treasures were discounted up to 90 percent as a freefall in spending left merchants swimming in inventory. But this year, stores cut inventories, willing to take a risk of running out of items rather than having to slash prices. The strategy is expected to boost fourth-quarter profits but may limit sales in the final days and even after Christmas. Of course, shoppers who have a generic holiday list – a black sweater or a flat-panel TV in any brand – will find plenty to choose from. But slim pickings on key items are frustrating some shoppers, who appear to be delaying purchases more this year than last year. A week ago, Tom Burson was scouring online toy sites for such items as Lego’s City Police Station and an Erector 15 model construction set for his 7-year-old son Willie, but ended up empty handed because they were sold out. The 46-year-old management consultant from Ashburn, Va., said he wound up having to buy the items on eBay and pay up to 35 percent more for the toys. What surprised Burson was that these toys were not the season’s new products and had been around for awhile. “I learned my lesson,” he said. “Thanksgiving can no longer be the start of the shopping season. It’s going to have to be Halloween.” “Stores need to have a good selection” for last-minute buyers, said Laura Gurski, partner in the retail practice of A.T. Kearney, a global management consultant. She also wonders how stores will excite shoppers to come back after Christmas if leftovers are skimpy. A look at what’s hard to find: CLOTHING AND ACCESSORIES: At Bloomingdales, Burberry down coats, Hunter’s original Gloss Wellington rain boots, along with the socks that are sold separately, are sold out or almost sold out, Keating said. She noted that the chain is getting regular shipments of UGG boots but they are selling out. Also scarce are denim leggins by Daddy Long Legs, she said. Nordstrom’s spokeswoman Brooke White reported limited quantities of the Wellington boots in pea green, violet or graphite, while the store has sold out of Bosca’s magnetic money clips in dark brown leather and The North Face’s women’s fleece in colors like pink, black and white. The upscale store has also sold out of charm necklaces with such messages as “Truth” and “Peace.” HOME DECOR: Most holiday decorations are gone at home-improvement chains Home Depot and Lowe’s. Both say energy-efficient LED holiday lights have been gone for days. Most inflatable lawn ornaments have sold out. Another key item that shoppers can’t find is Home Depot’s lighted reindeer and sleigh lawn decor. Lowe’s said the most popular inflatables were the least expensive – a 4-foot Santa and a 4-foot snowman, retailing each for $19.97, have sold out. TOYS: Those who haven’t gotten their hands on Zhu Zhu pets yet may have to wait until after Christmas. Toys R Us spokeswoman Kathleen Waugh said the toy retailer sold 1 million of them in the past week and is receiving a couple of hundred thousand more before Christmas. That means each store will get about 400 hamsters before Christmas. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. is getting about 20 to 60 per store per day through Wednesday, but the rodents sell out immediately. Many of the hot toys are scarce, including Mattel Inc.’s Rocky the Robot and Mindflex which measures brain waves and uses them to push a ball through a course and Hasbro Inc.’s Chuck My Talking Truck. Jim Silver, an analyst at Timetoplaymag.com, said there are more toy shortages this year than last year. ___ AP Retail Writer Mae Anderson contributed to this report.

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Credit Suisse Names Boon Sim Global Head of M&A; Monarchi to Lead Europe

December 21, 2009

By Ambereen Choudhury Dec. 21 (Bloomberg) — Credit Suisse Group AG , Switzerland’s biggest bank by market value, named Boon Sim global head of mergers and acquisitions in a shake-up of its teams advising U.S. and European companies on takeovers. Sim, 47, will be replaced as head of U.S. mergers by Andrew Lipsky , the bank said in an internal memo today. Giuseppe Monarchi will replace David Livingstone as head of European M&A. Livingstone, 46, will return to his native Australia as chief executive officer of Credit Suisse Australia. The contents of the document were confirmed by a Credit Suisse spokeswoman in London. The Zurich-based bank is changing the leaders of its merger advisory teams after Marc Granetz , who was head of M&A worldwide as well as co-head of the global investment banking department, was named the division’s chairman in October. He will take up that job at the end of this year. Credit Suisse is the ninth-ranked adviser on global M&A this year, down from eighth place in 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Zurich-based bank’s share of the advisory market dropped to about 13 percent in 2009 from 17 percent in 2007, the data show. Advisory revenue fell 67 percent in the third quarter from the year-earlier period to 106 million Swiss francs ($102 million), the lowest since the start of 2005. Sim, who grew up in Singapore and is a former semiconductor designer, joined Credit Suisse predecessor First Boston Corp. in 1991. He will report to investment banking co-heads Jim Amine and Luigi de Vecchi . He advised Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. on its $26 billion purchase of First Data Corp. in 2007 and Avaya Inc. on its $8.2 billion sale to TPG and Silver Lake, two U.S. private equity firms. Amine, de Vecchi “This group will lead one of the bank’s most critical strategic advisory businesses,” Amine and de Vecchi wrote. Livingstone will be replaced by Monarchi, co-head of European technology, media and telecommunications investment banking in London, according to the memo. He advised Italy’s Lottomatica SpA on its $4.7 billion purchase of U.S. gaming equipment maker Gtech Corp. in 2006. In Sydney, Livingstone will replace David Trude , who will continue to work with the bank as an adviser. Joe Gallagher will continue to run the bank’s Asia Pacific M&A team from Hong Kong. To contact the reporters on this story: Ambereen Choudhury in London achoudhury@bloomberg.net

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Conquest Mining updates on DFS progress at Silver Hill

December 15, 2009

Conquest Mining updates on DFS progress at Silver Hill

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Stocks in U.S. Advance as Jobless, Trade Data Point to Economic Recovery

December 10, 2009

By Mary Childs Dec. 10 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks rose for a second day as the average number of Americans filing first-time jobless claims over the past four weeks fell to a one-year low and the trade deficit unexpectedly shrank as a weaker dollar boosted exports. Alcoa Inc., Walt Disney Co. and Caterpillar Inc. helped lead the Dow Jones Industrial Average higher as the four-week moving average of initial jobless claims slid to 473,750 last week and the trade gap narrowed 7.6 percent to $32.9 billion in October. Citigroup Inc. rose as analysts said its reported plan to repay bailout funds may boost earnings per share. “It’s pretty clear the economy continues to strengthen,” said Michael Vogelzang , who helps manage $1.8 billion in assets as chief investment officer at Boston Advisors in Boston. “We continue to burn off the remaining pieces of the economic meltdown we had a year ago.” The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 0.7 percent to 1,103.08 at 11:06 a.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 71.2 points, or 0.7 percent, to 10,408.25. About two stocks gained for each that fell on the New York Stock Exchange. After surging as much as 64 percent from a 12-year low on March 9, the S&P 500 has been little changed since mid-October amid concern the economy’s recovery from the worst recession in seven decades won’t be sustained. The index is trading for about 22 times the reported operating earnings of its companies, near the highest level since 2002. Eastman Chemical increased 1.6 percent to $59.73 after Goldman Sachs gave the shares a “buy” recommendation in new coverage. Citigroup Payback Citigroup added 0.5 percent to $3.88. Deutsche Bank AG reiterated its “buy” rating on the shares. Analysts Matt O’Connor and David Ho said the bank’s reported plans to raise capital to repay bailout funds would have a positive impact on earnings per share in the near term because the elimination of dividends paid to the government would overshadow the dilution to earnings from new stock. Citigroup is resisting a request to raise $20 billion and instead is aiming for $10 billion to $15 billion, CNBC’s Maria Bartiromo reported. Executives from 12 banks, including Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase & Co., will participate in a Dec. 14 White House meeting with President Barack Obama to discuss his proposals to boost small-business lending and overhaul industry regulations, an administration official said. Also represented will be Bank of America Corp., Wells Fargo & Co., Capital One Financial Corp. and American Express Co., said the official who spoke on the condition of anonymity. Gulf Discovery Anadarko Petroleum Corp. rose 2 percent to $58.25. The second-largest producer of natural gas in the U.S. disclosed a discovery at the Lucius exploration well in the Gulf of Mexico. Anadarko operates the Lucius well with a 50 percent working interest. Plains Exploration & Production Co. , which has a 33 percent working interest, added 6.7 percent to $27.21. Mariner Energy Inc. , which has a 17 percent interest, rose 4.8 percent to $13.55. Pall Corp. jumped 7.8 percent to $33.84. The maker of filters for refineries and drugmakers said that, excluding some items, it expects to earn at least $2.02 a share in the current fiscal year. That topped the average analyst estimate of $1.91 from a Bloomberg survey. Gartner Inc. dropped 5.8 percent to $17.27. The research firm that forecasts computer and mobile-phone sales said Silver Lake will sell about 8 million shares of Gartner stock in a public offering. Sovereign Debt Concern U.S. stocks advanced yesterday, recovering from a worldwide equity market retreat, as analyst upgrades of 3M Co. and Sprint Nextel Corp. helped offset concern credit defaults will spread through the global economy. The reliability of sovereign credit has been under increased scrutiny since Nov. 25, when Dubai World, a state- owned holding company, said it would seek a standstill agreement on its debt. Dubai World has since said it’s in talks to renegotiate $26 billion of loans. Fitch Ratings this week cut Greece’s credit rating, while Standard & Poor’s reduced its outlook for Spain to “negative.” To contact the reporter on this story: Mary Childs in New York at mchilds4@bloomberg.net .

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India’s Tata Group Launches Inexpensive Water Purifier For The Masses

December 7, 2009

MUMBAI, India — At about two feet tall, it may turn out to be the world’s most compact revolution: The Tata Swach, launched Monday, is a water purifier priced for the masses, which India’s Tata Group hopes will help save the lives of millions of people who die each year of waterborne diseases. “This is opening up a complete new market,” said R. Mukundan, managing director of Tata Chemicals Ltd. The Tata Swach – Hindi for “clean” – meets U.S. Environmental Protection Agency standards, doesn’t require running water, electricity, or boiling and is priced so that the mass of rural Indian consumers can afford it, executives said. Group chairman Ratan Tata is scheduled to announce the sale price later Monday. The water filter grew out of a decade of research and development, led by three different companies in the Tata Group. Tata is one of India’s largest conglomerates, making everything from table salt to Jaguar automobiles – as well as the ultra-cheap Nano compact car, which like the Swach filter targets a lower income rural market many companies have ignored. The dire statistics about the human cost of unsafe water are well known. The Swach, a pet project of Ratan Tata, is the group’s bet that the private sector can offer a better, consumer-based solution to one of the world’s most persistent health problems than most governments in the developing world can. Safe water “is a right public policy has sought to fulfill, not very successfully so far. We’d like to make a small contribution to offering that,” said Tata Sons executive director R. Gopalakrishnan. Similarly, the Tata Group is working on a computer-based literacy program for adults in India, where a third of adults can’t read or write. The market for the Tata Swach is undeniably huge: Some 894 million people don’t have sufficient access to clean water, and 2.2 million in developing countries, most children, die every year from diseases associated with unsafe drinking water and poor sanitation, according to the World Health Organization and the United Nations. In India alone, 380,000 children die each year from diarrhea, according to UNICEF. Hindustan Unilever has tried to tap that demand with its Pureit filter, which like the Swach doesn’t require electricity or running water. The unit retails for 2000 rupees ($42.92), with a replaceable battery kit that costs 365 rupees ($7.80). The cost of the battery kit per liter of purified water is 24 paise ($0.005), cheaper than boiling but more expensive per liter than a 20 liter bottle of branded water, according to Hindustan Unilever’s website. Gita Kavarana, who studies water issues at New Delhi’s Centre for Science and Environment, said Tata’s product could help reduce water-borne illnesses for people who use surface water, like lakes and rivers, for drinking. She said ground water, used by 80 percent of rural Indians, doesn’t usually have bacteriological contamination, but it can have other impurities like arsenic or flouride – which aren’t removed by the Tata Swach. She believes access to clean water shouldn’t just be cheap. It should be free. “The government should guarantee every citizen a certain quantum of clean safe drinking water. If that is available, maybe there’s no need for water filters,” she said. “You are just putting the burden on the poor.” Each filter for the Tata Swach, which is packaged as a 19-liter, teal and white plastic box, has a lifespan of 3000 liters – about enough to provide a family of five drinking water for a year. The filter uses paddy husk ash as a matrix, bound with microscopic particles of silver to kill the bacteria that cause 80 percent of waterborne disease, executives said. Paddy husk ash has long been known for its cleansing properties – it has been used traditionally for tooth washing – and India produces about 20 million tons of it a year. The filter was created in a Tata Consultancy Services lab, the silver nanotechnology was added on by Tata Chemicals and Titan, Tata’s watch subsidiary, made the precision machine tools to manufacture the filter. The group plans to distribute the purifier using distribution networks of Rallis, Tata’s agrochemical subsidiary with over 30,000 retailers in rural India, and Tata Kisan Sansar, a farm services business run by Tata Chemicals, which reaches 2.5 million farmers. Initial production will be 1 million units a year from a Tata Chemicals plant in Haldia, West Bengal, with a planned ramp-up to 3 million units annually within 5 years. Executives would not break out research and development costs, but said they plan to invest 1 billion rupees ($21.6 million) in the project over the next 5 years. They hope to eventually export the filter to Africa.

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Conquest Mining Limited (ASX:CQT) Maiden Ore Reserves For Silver Hill Deposit

December 7, 2009

Conquest Mining Limited (ASX:CQT) Maiden Ore Reserves For Silver Hill Deposit

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CGNPC, Silver Grant join hands in nuclear power

November 25, 2009

CGNPC, Silver Grant join hands in nuclear power

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Joe Mauer Wins American League MVP Award Over Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter

November 23, 2009

By Mason Levinson Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) — Minnesota Twins catcher Joe Mauer was named the American League’s Most Valuable Player after winning his second straight batting crown while leading his team to the playoffs. Mauer earned 27 of 28 first-place votes and 387 total points in balloting by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. Mark Teixeira of the New York Yankees was second with 225 points, followed by teammate Derek Jeter , who had 193. Miguel Cabrera of the Detroit Tigers had the only other first- place vote and finished fourth with 171 points. Mauer, 26, who played in 138 games after missing 22 with a lower-back injury, batted .365. He added 28 home runs and 96 runs batted in, both career highs, for the Twins, who won the AL Central Division with an 87-76 record. The Twins were swept by the eventual-champion Yankees in the first round of the playoffs. Voting for the award was done prior to the postseason, where Mauer batted .417. Mauer, 26, won his second straight Gold Glove Award this month as the best fielding catcher in the AL and Silver Slugger Award as the best hitting AL catcher. Jeter, 35, also won a Gold Glove for his play at shortstop last season, batting .334 with 18 homers and 107 runs scored for the Yankees, whose 103-59 record was the best in Major League Baseball. Jeter was a runner-up to Mauer’s teammate Justin Morneau in voting for the 2006 AL MVP . Teixeira, 29, led the AL in RBI with 122 and shared the league lead in homers with 39, tying Tampa Bay’s Carlos Pena . Teixeira, playing his first season with the Yankees, had 107 runs scored, a .292 batting average and a Gold Glove performance at first base. Cabrera, 26, hit .324 with 34 homers and 103 RBI in his second season with the Tigers. To contact the reporter on this story: Mason Levinson in New York at mlevinson@bloomberg.net .

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Joe Mauer Wins American League MVP Award Over Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter

November 23, 2009

By Mason Levinson Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) — Minnesota Twins catcher Joe Mauer was named the American League’s Most Valuable Player after winning his second straight batting crown while leading his team to the playoffs. Mauer earned 27 of 28 first-place votes and 387 total points in balloting by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. Mark Teixeira of the New York Yankees was second with 225 points, followed by teammate Derek Jeter , who had 193. Miguel Cabrera of the Detroit Tigers had the only other first- place vote and finished fourth with 171 points. Mauer, 26, who played in 138 games after missing 22 with a lower-back injury, batted .365. He added 28 home runs and 96 runs batted in, both career highs, for the Twins, who won the AL Central Division with an 87-76 record. The Twins were swept by the eventual-champion Yankees in the first round of the playoffs. Voting for the award was done prior to the postseason, where Mauer batted .417. Mauer, 26, won his second straight Gold Glove Award this month as the best fielding catcher in the AL and Silver Slugger Award as the best hitting AL catcher. Jeter, 35, also won a Gold Glove for his play at shortstop last season, batting .334 with 18 homers and 107 runs scored for the Yankees, whose 103-59 record was the best in Major League Baseball. Jeter was a runner-up to Mauer’s teammate Justin Morneau in voting for the 2006 AL MVP . Teixeira, 29, led the AL in RBI with 122 and shared the league lead in homers with 39, tying Tampa Bay’s Carlos Pena . Teixeira, playing his first season with the Yankees, had 107 runs scored, a .292 batting average and a Gold Glove performance at first base. Cabrera, 26, hit .324 with 34 homers and 103 RBI in his second season with the Tigers. To contact the reporter on this story: Mason Levinson in New York at mlevinson@bloomberg.net .

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Harvard Finds Kidney Stones, Asthma, Malaria Among Climate-Change Risks

November 20, 2009

By Jim Efstathiou Jr. Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) — Kidney stones, malaria, Lyme disease, depression and respiratory illness all may increase with global warming, researchers at Harvard Medical School said. Climate change from the burning of fossil fuels will add to risks to public health, said Paul Epstein , associate director of Harvard’s Center for Health and the Global Environment in Boston. The center and groups led by the American Medical Association are presenting data at a briefing today in Washington as a call for action to curb emissions. Power-plant emissions and deforestation have contributed to a 1.4-degree Fahrenheit rise in global temperatures, an increase that could reach 8.1 degrees by the end of the century, the United Nations said in a 2007 report. Warming causes flooding, heat waves and wildfires that worsen health, especially for children and the elderly, according to the Harvard researchers. “We expect an increase in hospital admissions for things like pneumonia, chronic lung disease, asthma and other respiratory diseases,” Cecil Wilson , president-elect of the American Medical Association , said yesterday in an interview. “Increased heat also increases the risk to people who have other diseases.” The Chicago-based AMA, the largest U.S. doctor’s group, sent a letter to President Barack Obama this week citing the “significant public health impacts” of climate change, Wilson said. The Nov. 17 letter said children, the elderly, people suffering from chronic diseases and the poor will be most affected. Senate Action Obama has backed climate-change legislation in Congress. The House passed a measure in June that aims to cut greenhouse- gas emissions 17 percent from 2005 levels by 2020. The Senate isn’t going to attempt action on a climate bill until “sometime in the spring,” Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid , a Nevada Democrat, said this week. Obama and other leaders at an Asia-Pacific conference this week agreed a binding global-warming accord is out of reach at next month’s climate summit in Copenhagen. Yvo de Boer , executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, predicted yesterday at the UN that a treaty will be completed by June. With today’s briefing preceding the Copenhagen conference, “we are hopeful that meeting will embody some of the concerns about health,” Wilson said. The Harvard center’s findings incorporate original research as well as previously published studies from other sources, Epstein said. He contributed to the work of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007. “This is a big deal getting these organizations to come out on climate change,” Epstein said in an interview. “This lays the groundwork for further action.” Warmer in Indiana Climate change is making Indiana warmer, raising the risk of kidney stones because of low urine volume linked to heat exposure, according to a study cited by the Harvard center. By 2050 southern Indiana will fall into the high-risk zone for kidney stones and by 2100, the entire state will. The portion of the U.S. population in high-risk zones for kidney stones will grow from 40 percent in 2000 to 56 percent by 2050, and to 70 percent by 2095, researchers at the University of Texas said in a 2008 study. Costs associated with the increase would be $900 million to $1.3 billion a year, 25 percent more than current expenditures. Warmer temperatures in New Mexico are contributing to the proliferation of mountain pine beetles, a pest that has killed 6.5 million acres of trees in the U.S., setting the stage for wildfires, according to the Harvard findings. Fires release air pollutants and cancer-causing chemicals, raising the risk of respiratory illness and lung disease. Children Outdoors Climate change also increases air pollutants such as ozone and sulfur dioxide, raising the risk of asthma, especially in children, said Jerome Paulson , medical director at the Washington-based Child Health Advocacy Institute . “Kids who are involved in outdoor activities in areas with more air pollution are more likely to develop asthma,” Paulson said in an interview. Paulson and Wilson will be joined at the briefing today by Nancy Hughes , director of the Silver Spring, Maryland-based Center for Occupational and Environmental Health of the American Nurses Association and Kim Knowlton , head of the climate change and health committee of the Washington-based American Public Health Association . The Harvard center also found climate change will increase deaths from heat waves, raise the incidence of waterborne diseases and spread afflictions such as Lyme disease and malaria. Dislocation and job losses spurred by changing climate may contribute to depression and anxiety disorders, the researchers said. To contact the reporter on this story: Jim Efstathiou Jr . in New York at jefstathiou@bloomberg.net .

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Job Openings Near Record Lows

November 10, 2009

WASHINGTON — Job openings are at rock-bottom levels, according to government and private surveys released Tuesday, a trend that could keep the unemployment rate high even as layoffs slow. Small businesses in particular are reluctant to add workers as they struggle to obtain credit. Many are pushing their current employees to produce more. Economists say small businesses account for about 60 percent of new jobs. Still, there are some pockets of hiring as demand for information technology and sales professionals grows, according to government reports and job search Web sites. And there are signs that companies are adding more human resources personnel, which could signal more hiring down the road. “We’ve seen a real spike in the hiring of contract recruiters,” said Phil Haynes, managing director of AllianceQ, an employers’ association that includes companies such as Starbucks Corp., Bank of America Corp. and Intuit Inc. “The recruiters come before the jobs.” But overall, it’s a tough time to be out of work. There are about 6.1 unemployed workers, on average, competing for each job opening, a Labor Department report shows. That’s down slightly from 6.2 last month, the most since the department began tracking job openings nine years ago. It’s a sharp increase from only 1.7 workers per opening when the recession began in December 2007. The department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey said employers advertised about 2.5 million job openings at the end of September, up slightly from the previous month. That’s down from a peak of 4.8 million openings in June 2007. Layoffs are slowing a bit. Employers cut a net total of 190,000 jobs in October, the government said last week, much lower than the average of about 700,000 a month in the first quarter of this year. But until companies are willing to hire, the unemployment rate is likely to keep rising from its current level of 10.2 percent, the highest in 26 years. The increase in joblessness came even as the economy grew by 3.5 percent in the July-September quarter, the strongest signal yet that the recession is over. Many economists worry the U.S. will experience a jobless recovery. That happened after the last two recoveries in 1991 and 2001, when the unemployment rate didn’t peak until 15 months and 19 months, respectively, after those recessions ended. The National Federation of Independent Business said Tuesday that small companies remain skeptical about the recovery. Its Index of Small Business Optimism rose 0.3 points to 89.1 last month, the third straight increase but still below the 94.6 reading in December 2007. Small businesses are reluctant to hire or invest in expansion, the monthly survey found. Sixteen percent of the survey respondents plan to cut jobs over the next three months, while only 9 percent plan to hire. “Overall, the small business job machine is still in reverse,” said William Dunkelberg, NFIB’s chief economist. Many small businesses also are still having a hard time getting loans, the report said. Ray Pinard, the CEO of Boston-based 48HourPrint.com, was able to borrow to buy additional printing equipment but said it took much longer to find a lender than the last time the company needed a loan in 2007. The additional equipment may eventually require more workers, but not anytime soon. “As we ramp up the volume on the equipment, we’ll try to use existing personnel first,” Pinard said. Still, some companies are looking to increase revenue by hiring more sales people. The Conference Board’s Help Wanted Online report, released last week, found that sales jobs saw the largest increase in vacancies among the 10 largest occupations, with a jump of about 11 percent. But overall, total jobs posted fell by 83,200 last month to nearly 3.3 million, the business research group said. Opel Solar Inc., an 8-year-old solar panel designer based in Shelton, Conn., and Toronto, Ontario, has added six positions this year as the government’s stimulus package helped companies and communities get funding for solar projects. Opel has one active opening, in sales, and will probably add one or two additional positions soon, vice president Pat Agudow said. In addition, the information technology sector has been slowly adding jobs in recent months. According to the Labor Department’s employment report last week, the computer systems sector added about 4,500 jobs in October. Tom Silver, senior vice president for North America at Dice.com, a job site for technology professionals, said that job postings are increasing in two large technology markets – Silicon Valley and New York City – as well as some smaller locations, such as Austin, Texas, and Charlotte, N.C. New York-based job postings have risen 16 percent so far this year, he said, while they are up 6 percent in Silicon Valley. “For the first time in more than a year, recruiters and hiring managers have more confidence in the underlying business climate,” he said. ___ AP Business Writer Tali Arbel in New York contributed to this report.

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Gold Producer Stocks Poised to Underperform Bullion: Technical Analysis

November 7, 2009

By Elizabeth Stanton Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) — Gold stocks are near their most expensive level relative to the price of bullion in 14 months, a sign that they may start to underperform the metal, according to WJB Capital Group Inc. Gold traded at 11.5 times the level of the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Index in October 2008, the most ever, as the financial crisis caused by Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. ’s bankruptcy sparked a stock market retreat and spurred investors to buy bullion as a haven. The gap has since narrowed as the mining index more than doubled to catch up with the metal’s gain, beating gold’s 48 percent advance. The ratio , which never surpassed 6.4 from 1984 until September 2008, dropped to less than 6 in September and was 6.3 today. Its return to the level prior to Lehman’s bankruptcy signals that bullion is likely to begin outperforming its producers, said John Roque , managing director in technical analysis at WJB in New York. “Quite simply the chart suggests gold should do better than gold equities,” Roque said. “It doesn’t mean the stocks won’t perform, but they will likely do less well relative to the metal.” Technical analysts make predictions based on price and volume charts. Gold futures rose for a fourth straight session yesterday on speculation that the Federal Reserve will trail other central banks in raising interest rates, driving the dollar down and boosting the appeal of the metal. Bullion futures for December delivery rose $2, or 0.2 percent, to $1,089.30 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold may outperform mining stocks to a greater degree than it did in the past because the creation of exchange-traded funds is allowing investors to wager directly on the metal’s price without needing to buy mining stocks, Roque said. To contact the reporter on this story: Elizabeth Stanton in New York at estanton@bloomberg.net .

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Dan Dorfman: Selling Panic Could Rock Stocks

November 4, 2009

Go figure this crazy market following another bout of schizophrenia. Take last week, a week that may have flashed bum tidings ahead for investors, even the possibility of a selling panic. First came terrific Thursday, then wicked Friday, as big money was made and even bigger money was lost. Most noteworthy in last week’s final two trading sessions were the huge roller-coaster moves in the stock market that really necessitate ulcer-proof stomachs to cope with the tremendous volatility, sharply conflicting good and bad tidings on the economic front and a scary signal that the equities market could be rocked by a selling panic at any time. One money manager, Arnold Silver of Los Angeles-based A. Silver Associates, figures Friday’s dismal market performance might well have been an early sign that the market — despite its recent strength — could be slammed by a wave of panic selling the next time it’s struck by unexpectedly bad news, maybe kicked off by a lightening quick 200-300 drop in the Dow Jones Industrials. “Thank heaven for the saps,” quips Silver, a reference to what he describes as “those dummies who pushed stock prices appreciably higher on Thursday.” That was the day — following three recent losing market sessions in which knocked the Dow plunged nearly 325 points on economic fears — when gloom suddenly turned into euphoria as impressionable investors went ga-ga, driving up the Dow a hair under 200 points. That buying binge followed the revelation that day that the country’s ailing economic health had taken a decided turn for the better, as demonstrated by the news of spirited third-quarter GDP growth of 3.5%, the strongest growth rate in two years. The economic bulls viewed that showing as fresh, unmistakable evidence that the recession now rests in the graveyard, despite what some market professionals view as alarming facts to the contrary. A skeptical Silver, the skipper of A. Silver Associates, used the runup in stocks to short them (a bet they would fall in price), particularly banking and retailing shares. “Anyone who thinks we’re finally out of the economic woods has got to be living on Mars,” he says. You’ve got to create jobs to get this economy rolling again and we’re just not doing it.” In addition, based on what he says he hears from the banks, “commercial real estate failures and the ensuing bank write-downs will be a killer.” Friday, though, produced an expected about face in response to unfavorable economic news, namely that consumer spending — which represents about 70% of the economic activity — fell in September, the first such decline in five months. In turn, the previous day’s buying spree turned into a selling spree as the Dow got smashed for a loss of just under 250 points, giving up all of its Thursday gain and then some. To the economic bears, it meant an economic awakening, a recognition that the reports of the death of the recession had been greatly exaggerated. So what’s next? The words vary, but the message is clear. It depends on whom you believe. The recession is dead, long live the recovery. That was essentially the cry throughout Wall Street Thursday, following the positive third-quarter GDP news Even the Wall Street Journal-turned economic soothsayer got caught up in the buoyancy, declaring on Friday that the economy had snapped its long slump. In other words, goodbye recession. I don’t know about you, but the market’s euphoric outburst Thursday based on a renewed percolating economy just doesn’t smell right to me. Nor does it to some market pros. The reason: such exuberance is suspect, given a number of troublesome figures out there that are wreaking economic havoc. Among them: The woes in housing, though showing some signs of improvement, are far from over. Some examples: There’s an excess inventory of one million housing units looking for buyers and about 5.2 million homeowners (nearly 11% of them) are no longer paying their mortgages. The jobs picture continues to look grim. Of the roughly 15.1 million unemployed Americans, nearly 36% of them have been out of work six months or more. At the same time, growing numbers of people are disappearing from the work force, about 500,000 in September alone. Incomes are steadily shrinking, with wages and salaries slumping 4% to 5% from year-earlier levels. Madeline Schnapp, director of economics at West Coast liquidity tracker TrimTabs Research, which is partially owned by Goldman Sachs, thinks the economic bulls are wearing blinders. Schnapp, who insists the recession is fae from over, takes the view that the 3.5% growth in third-quarter GDP was one of those now you see it, now you don’t, events. Why so? Because, she explains, that growth rate largely reflected government stimulus program, such as a cash for clunkers auto promotion and an $8,000 tax credit for first time home-buyers. Schnapp, in fact, figures the two contributed as much 1.5% to 2% of that 3.5% third-quarter growth. But she expects economic reality to be painfully obvious in the current quarter’s results. Her outlook: plummeting GDP growth to between 0.5% and 1%. The auto promotion is now kaput, and the $8,000 tax credit is set to expire at the end of November, although there’s speculation it may be extended. Housing also has another catalyst going for it. The government is purchasing about 80% of all mortgage-backed securities, which is helping to keep interest rates low, but this kind of buying will expire in March. In addition, home sales in October are showing signs of slowing from September’s pace, notably in California, and Schnapp calculates that they’ll drop about 10% month over month. The economic key, as Schnapp sees it, is that private market consumption will not kick in without job creation, and “we don’t see that happening anytime soon.” Making matters worse, she says, we have an economy that’s losing around a million jobs every three or four months, an economic deterrent which she doesn’t see easing until the summer of 2010 at the earliest. “And even then is a big if,” she observes. Meanwhile, Schnapp notes investment money is swimming like a shark looking for yield (which is puny in most money-market instruments) and finding it stocks and bonds. But she feels the stock market is chasing a pipe dream because the market lacks positive fundamentals. “We’re looking at another bubble and all bubbles end badly,” she says. “Eventually, at some point, without a solid foundation, people sell when there’s nothing there, and then you have panic selling.” Write to Dan Dorfman at Dandordan@aol.com.

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Republicans Ride Economic Woes to Wins in Two States

November 4, 2009

By Heidi Przybyla Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) — Republicans swept governors’ races in New Jersey and Virginia as voters concerned about rising jobless rates and record home foreclosures punished Democrats. New Jersey’s Democratic Governor Jon Corzine , a 62-year-old former co-chairman of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. , lost to Republican Christopher Christie , 47. In Virginia, Republican Bob McDonnell , 55, beat Democrat Creigh Deeds , 51, by a 17-point margin. In a congressional race in New York that took on national significance, Democrat Bill Owens defeated Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman . Republicans said the results were a sign the electorate is looking more favorably at their party one year after President Barack Obama’s election. “It’s great news,” said David Carney , a political director for former President George H.W. Bush . “When we’re like us, we win; when we’re like them, we lose,” said Republican Dick Armey , the former House majority leader from Texas, who now chairs FreedomWorks, a group that has aligned with conservative activists. Armey is on one side of a debate among Republicans over whether the party’s response to losses in the 2006 and 2008 elections should be to move further to the political right. In New York, that strategy may have backfired as Republicans including Armey and 2008 Vice-Presidential candidate Sarah Palin endorsed Hoffman, 59, a conservative who ran as a third-party candidate. They chose Hoffman over the pick of local party leaders, Dede Scozzafava , 49, who dropped out last weekend. The split vote handed Democrat Owens a narrow victory in a district that has been represented by a Republican since the Civil War. Unemployment In Detroit, voters approved a $500.5 million school bond proposal for a district that considered filing for bankruptcy. The election also resulted in Ohio becoming the 13th U.S. state to allow casinos, as voters approved gaming halls in Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati and Toledo. The elections came as the national unemployment rate reached 9.8 percent in September, and 937,840 U.S. homes received a default or auction notice or were repossessed by banks in the third quarter, a 23 percent increase from a year earlier, RealtyTrac Inc. said Oct. 15. The U.S. dollar has dropped 12 percent in the past year against a basket of six major currencies, even as stocks in the S&P 500 have rallied 55 percent from a 12-year low in March. ‘Frugal Government’ Speaking to supporters in Richmond, Virginia, Governor- elect McDonnell pledged “a wise and frugal government” and to keep taxes, regulation and litigation “to a minimum.” “Tomorrow begins the task of fixing our broken state,” said Christie, who pledged to cut regulations and spending and “get government back under control.” The Republican wins in two out of three races could embolden conservative activists seeking to promote rivals for the seats of party lawmakers and officials such as Florida Governor Charlie Crist who supported Obama’s $787 billion economic stimulus. The results in New York, in particular, will stoke a debate in the Republican Party over its direction, said former Republican Representative Tom Davis of Virginia. He said his party must develop a message that goes beyond opposition to Obama’s agenda by offering alternatives to his policies. “You’ve got to be able to mold that discontent into majorities,” said Davis, who led his party’s recruitment efforts in Congress. Mayoral Races In New York City, Mayor Michael Bloomberg , an independent, was elected to a third term, beating Democrat William Thompson , the city’s comptroller, by a 5-point margin. Bloomberg, who becomes the first three-term chief executive of the biggest U.S. city by population since 1989, is founder and majority owner of Bloomberg News parent Bloomberg LP. In Boston, Mayor Thomas Menino won an unprecedented fifth consecutive four-year term, and in Detroit, Dave Bing , a former NBA star, won re-election. In Miami’s mayoral race, Tomás Regalado defeated Joe Sanchez. In Maine, voters repealed a state law that would allow gay and lesbian couples to marry. Final results for a similar proposal in Washington state were not available. Exit polls indicated the gubernatorial and House races weren’t referenda on the president’s job performance, though Democrats learned the possible limits of gains made in last year’s election, when Obama became the first in his party to win Virginia since 1964. ‘Local Issues’ Obama’s spokesman said the gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia turned on the economy and “local issues that didn’t involve the president.” “The economy was on people’s minds in these elections,” White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said. The president plans to call McDonnell and Christie today, Gibbs said. Obama talked with Corzine and Deeds last night. The administration is “not concerned” that the results will make it more difficult to keep Democrats representing Republican- leaning districts on board with the president’s agenda, he said. Still, the outcome in Virginia and New Jersey may be unreliable barometers of how the elections next year will play out, with local issues such as taxes and transportation driving much of the debate. Virginia hasn’t elected a governor from the party that holds the White House since 1973. McDonnell’s election ends an eight-year streak of Democratic governors. Virginia Campaign Deeds trailed McDonnell for much of the race, except in the weeks after a thesis paper McDonnell wrote more than 20 years ago calling working women “detrimental” was publicized. McDonnell recovered in the polls after his campaign ran a television ad that showed Deeds equivocating on whether he would raise taxes. Yesterday, McDonnell won 58.7 percent to 41.3 percent, with the support of many of the independent and female voters who backed Obama a year ago. In New Jersey, Christie started the campaign with a lead in polls that reached 12 percent in July and fell as Corzine aired a series of television ads attacking his driving record, ethics and opposition to abortion. Christie won 49 percent to 45 percent. The last time a Republican won a statewide election in New Jersey was 1997, when incumbent Governor Christine Whitman defeated challenger James McGreevey in a tough campaign. Whitman’s 1993 campaign, in which she defeated James Florio amid voter outrage over $2.8 billion in tax increases he pushed through in his first term, marked the only defeat of a sitting New Jersey governor in a general election. Independent Voters In Virginia, 65 percent of independents cast their ballots for McDonnell and in New Jersey, Christie took 60 percent of the independent vote, according to CNN’s early exit polls . The economy and jobs were the most important issue to voters in both states, with 32 percent of New Jersey voters and almost half of Virginia voters saying so. Six in ten New Jersey voters and 55 percent of Virginians said Obama had no effect on their vote. The data refute the arguments of Republicans who said the races were referenda on Obama, said David Plouffe , the president’s former campaign manager. “These are local races,” he said in an interview yesterday on Bloomberg Television. “By Thursday or Friday the remnants of this will be forgotten.” Tom Reynolds , a former congressman from New York and head of the National Republican Congressional Committee , agreed. “It probably will have little to do with next year’s outcome,” he said. “Whether it is who wins the House baseball game or a fight in the off-year, people are wanting to take credit.” Turnout While voters in Virginia said the race wasn’t a referendum on Obama, the low turnout among blacks and young voters was a failure of his grassroots campaign machine , said Jennifer Duffy , an analyst at the Cook Political Report in Washington. “Looking to 2010, it’s a good lesson to relearn,” she said. “It’s not going to be the silver bullet for Democrats.” Amo Houghton , a former New York congressman and founder of the Republican Main Street Partnership , which promotes centrist Republicans, said the ouster of Scozzafava by Hoffman could be a bad omen for the party. Hoffman had assailed Scozzafava’s support for the stimulus, gay marriage and abortion rights. Owens had 49 percent of the vote, compared with 45.6 percent for Hoffman. “It’s tragic,” he said. “You don’t turn on your own people if you believe in the country and the two-party system.” Armey said Republicans would have won if they “had nominated a true conservative from the outset.” John Lapp, who was the director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in 2006 under then Illinois Representative Rahm Emanuel , said the results last night could impair Republicans chances in swing districts, such as the Northeast, where there are only two Republican senators, Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins of Maine. “There has been a purist civil war, revolution for the heart and soul of the party and the moderates have lost,” Lapp said. To contact the reporter on this story: Heidi Przybyla in Washington at hprzybyla@bloomberg.net .

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Republicans Ride Concern Over Economy to Victories in Virginia, New Jersey

November 4, 2009

By Heidi Przybyla Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) — Republicans swept governors’ races in New Jersey and Virginia as voters concerned about rising jobless rates and home record home foreclosures punished Democrats. New Jersey’s Democratic Governor Jon Corzine , a 62-year-old former co-chairman of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. , lost to Republican Christopher Christie , 47. In Virginia, Republican Bob McDonnell , 55, beat Democrat Creigh Deeds , 51, by a 17-point margin. In a congressional race in New York that took on national significance, Democrat Bill Owens defeated Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman . Republicans said the results were a sign the electorate is looking more favorably at their party one year after President Barack Obama’s election. “It’s great news,” said David Carney , a political director for former President George H.W. Bush . “When we’re like us, we win; when we’re like them, we lose,” said Republican Dick Armey , the former House majority leader from Texas, who now chairs FreedomWorks, a group that has aligned with conservative activists. Armey is on one side of a debate among Republicans over whether the party’s response to losses in the 2006 and 2008 elections should be to move further to the political right. In New York, that strategy may have backfired as Republicans including Armey and 2008 Vice-Presidential candidate Sarah Palin endorsed Hoffman, 59, a Conservative who ran as a third-party candidate. They chose Hoffman over the pick of local party leaders, Dede Scozzafava , 49, who dropped out last weekend. The split vote handed Democrat Owens a narrow victory in a district that has been represented by a Republican since the Civil War. Unemployment In Detroit, voters approved a $500.5 million school bond proposal for a district that considered filing for bankruptcy. The election also resulted in Ohio becoming the 13th U.S. state to allow casinos, as voters approved gaming halls in Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati and Toledo. The elections came as the national unemployment rate reached 9.8 percent in September, and 937,840 U.S. homes received a default or auction notice or were repossessed by banks in the third quarter, a 23 percent increase from a year earlier, RealtyTrac Inc. said Oct. 15. The U.S. dollar has dropped 12 percent in the past year against a basket of six major currencies, even as stocks in the S&P 500 have rallied 55 percent from a 12-year low in March. ‘Frugal Government’ Speaking to supporters in Richmond, Virginia, Governor- elect McDonnell pledged “a wise and frugal government” and to keep taxes, regulation and litigation “to a minimum.” “Tomorrow begins the task of fixing our broken state,” said Christie, who pledged to cut regulations and spending and “get government back under control.” The Republican wins in two out of three races could embolden conservative activists seeking to promote rivals for the seats of party lawmakers and officials such as Florida Governor Charlie Crist who supported Obama’s $787 billion economic stimulus. The results in New York, in particular, will stoke a debate in the Republican Party over its direction, said former Republican Representative Tom Davis of Virginia. He said his party must develop a message that goes beyond opposition to Obama’s agenda by offering alternatives to his policies. “You’ve got to be able to mold that discontent into majorities,” said Davis, who led his party’s recruitment efforts in Congress. Mayoral Races In New York City, Mayor Michael Bloomberg , an independent, was elected to a third term, beating Democrat William Thompson , the city’s comptroller, by a 5-point margin. Bloomberg, who became the first three-term chief executive of the largest U.S. city by population, is founder and majority owner of Bloomberg News parent Bloomberg LP. In Boston, Mayor Thomas Menino won an unprecedented fifth consecutive four-year term, and in Detroit, Dave Bing , a former NBA star, won re-election. In Miami’s mayoral race, Tomás Regalado defeated Joe Sanchez. In Maine, voters repealed a state law that would allow gay and lesbian couples to marry. Final results for a similar proposal in Washington state were not available. Exit polls indicated the gubernatorial and House races weren’t referenda on the president’s job performance, though Democrats learned the possible limits of gains made in last year’s election, when Obama became the first in his party to win Virginia since 1964. Unreliable Barometers Still, the outcome in Virginia and New Jersey may be unreliable barometers of how the elections next year will play out, with local issues such as taxes and transportation driving much of the debate. Virginia hasn’t elected a governor from the party that holds the White House since 1973. McDonnell’s election ends an eight-year streak of Democratic governors. Deeds trailed McDonnell for much of the race, except in the weeks after a thesis paper McDonnell wrote more than 20 years ago calling working women “detrimental” was publicized. McDonnell recovered in the polls after his campaign ran a television ad that showed Deeds equivocating on whether he would raise taxes. Yesterday, McDonnell won 58.7 percent to 41.3 percent, with the support of many of the independent and female voters who backed Obama a year ago. In New Jersey, Christie started the campaign with a lead in polls that reached 12 percent in July and fell as Corzine aired a series of television ads attacking his driving record, ethics and opposition to abortion. Christie won 49 percent to 45 percent. New Jersey The last time a Republican won a statewide election in New Jersey was 1997, when incumbent Governor Christine Whitman defeated challenger James McGreevey in a tough campaign. Whitman’s 1993 campaign, in which she defeated James Florio amid voter outrage over $2.8 billion in tax increases he pushed through in his first term, marked the only defeat of a sitting New Jersey governor in a general election. In Virginia, 65 percent of independents cast their ballots for McDonnell and in New Jersey, Christie took 60 percent of the independent vote, according to CNN’s early exit polls . The economy and jobs were the most important issue to voters in both states, with 32 percent of New Jersey voters and almost half of Virginia voters saying so. Six in ten New Jersey voters and 55 percent of Virginians said Obama had no effect on their vote. The data refute the arguments of Republicans who said the races were referenda on Obama, said David Plouffe , the president’s former campaign manager. ‘Local Races’ “These are local races,” he said in an interview yesterday on Bloomberg Television. “By Thursday or Friday the remnants of this will be forgotten.” Tom Reynolds , a former congressman from New York and head of the National Republican Congressional Committee , agreed. “It probably will have little to do with next year’s outcome,” he said. “Whether it is who wins the House baseball game or a fight in the off-year, people are wanting to take credit.” While voters in Virginia said the race wasn’t a referendum on Obama, the low turnout among blacks and young voters was a failure of his grassroots campaign machine , said Jennifer Duffy , an analyst at the Cook Political Report in Washington. “Looking to 2010, it’s a good lesson to relearn,” she said. “It’s not going to be the silver bullet for Democrats.” Amo Houghton , a former New York congressman and founder of the Republican Main Street Partnership , which promotes centrist Republicans, said the ouster of Scozzafava by Hoffman could be a bad omen for the party. Hoffman had assailed Scozzafava’s support for the stimulus, gay marriage and abortion rights. Owens had 49 percent of the vote, compared with 45.6 percent for Hoffman. ‘Tragic’ “It’s tragic,” he said. “You don’t turn on your own people if you believe in the country and the two-party system.” Armey said Republicans would have won if they “had nominated a true conservative from the outset.” John Lapp, who was the director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in 2006 under then Illinois Representative Rahm Emanuel , said the results last night could impair Republicans chances in swing districts, such as the Northeast, where there are only two Republican senators, Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins of Maine. “There has been a purist civil war, revolution for the heart and soul of the party and the moderates have lost,” Lapp said. To contact the reporter on this story: Heidi Przybyla in Washington at hprzybyla@bloomberg.net .

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Republicans Ride Economic Woes to Wins in Virginia, New Jersey Contests

November 3, 2009

By Heidi Przybyla Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) — Republicans swept governors’ races in New Jersey and Virginia as voters worried about jobs and the economy punished Democrats. New Jersey’s Democratic Governor Jon Corzine , a 62-year-old former co-chairman of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. , lost to Republican Christopher Christie , 47. In Virginia, Republican Bob McDonnell , 55, beat Democrat Creigh Deeds , 51, by a 17-point margin. In a congressional race in New York that took on national significance, Democrat Bill Owens defeated Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman , the Associated Press reported. Republicans said the results were a sign the electorate is leaning back toward their party one year after President Barack Obama’s election. “It’s great news,” said David Carney , a political director for former President George H.W. Bush . “When we’re like us, we win; when we’re like them, we lose,” said Republican Dick Armey , the former House majority leader from Texas, who now chairs FreedomWorks, a group that has aligned with conservative activists. Armey is on one side of a debate among Republicans over whether the party’s response to losses in the 2006 and 2008 elections should be to move further to the political right. In New York, Republicans including Armey and 2008 Vice-Presidential candidate Sarah Palin endorsed Hoffman, 59, a Conservative who ran as a third-party candidate, over the choice of local party leaders, Dede Scozzafava , 49, who dropped out last weekend. Late last night, Democrat Owens narrowly won in a district that has been represented by a Republican since the Civil War. ‘Frugal Government’ Speaking to supporters in Richmond, Virginia, Governor- elect McDonnell pledged “a wise and frugal government” and to keep taxes, regulation and litigation “to a minimum.” “Tomorrow begins the task of fixing our broken state,” said Christie, who pledged to cut regulations and spending and “get government back under control.” The Republican wins in two out of three races could embolden conservative activists seeking to promote rivals for the seats of party lawmakers and officials such as Florida Governor Charlie Crist who supported Obama’s $787 billion economic stimulus. The results in New York, in particular, will stoke a debate in the Republican Party over its direction, said former Republican Representative Tom Davis of Virginia. He said his party must develop a message that goes beyond opposition to Obama’s agenda by offering alternatives to his policies. “You’ve got to be able to mold that discontent into majorities,” said Davis, who led his party’s recruitment efforts in Congress. Mayoral Races In New York City, Mayor Michael Bloomberg , an independent, was elected to a third term, beating Democrat William Thompson , the city’s comptroller, by a 5-point margin. Bloomberg is founder and majority owner of Bloomberg News parent Bloomberg LP. In Boston, Mayor Thomas Menino won an unprecedented fifth consecutive four-year term, and in Detroit, Dave Bing , a former NBA star, won re-election. In Miami’s mayoral race, Tomás Regalado defeated Joe Sanchez. Final results weren’t available for proposals in Maine and Washington state to roll back rights extended to gay and lesbian couples, particularly those affirming marriage laws that granted the same status to gays as those given to heterosexual marriages. Exit polls indicated the gubernatorial and House races weren’t referenda on the president’s job performance, though Democrats learned the possible limits of gains made in last year’s election, when Obama became the first in his party to win Virginia since 1964. Unreliable Barometers Still, the outcome in Virginia and New Jersey may be unreliable barometers of how the elections next year will play out, with local issues such as taxes and transportation driving much of the debate. Virginia hasn’t elected a governor from the party that holds the White House since 1973. McDonnell’s election ends an eight-year streak of Democratic governors. Deeds trailed McDonnell for much of the race, except in the weeks after a thesis paper McDonnell wrote more than 20 years ago calling working women “detrimental” was publicized. McDonnell recovered in the polls after his campaign ran a television ad that showed Deeds equivocating on whether he would raise taxes. Yesterday, McDonnell won 58.7 percent to 41.3 percent, with the support of many of the independent and female voters who backed Obama a year ago. In New Jersey, Christie started the campaign with a lead in polls that reached 12 percent in July and fell as Corzine aired a series of television ads attacking his driving record, ethics and opposition to abortion. Christie won 49 percent to 45 percent. New Jersey The last time a Republican won a statewide election in New Jersey was 1997, when incumbent Governor Christine Whitman defeated challenger James McGreevey in a tough campaign. Whitman’s 1993 campaign, in which she defeated James Florio amid voter outrage over $2.8 billion in tax increases he pushed through in his first term, marked the only defeat of a sitting New Jersey governor in a general election. In Virginia, 65 percent of independents cast their ballots for McDonnell and in New Jersey, Christie took 60 percent of the independent vote, according to CNN’s early exit polls . The economy and jobs were the most important issue to voters in both states, with 32 percent of New Jersey voters and almost half of Virginia voters saying so. Six in ten New Jersey voters and 55 percent of Virginians said Obama had no effect on their vote. The data refute the arguments of Republicans who said the races were referenda on Obama, said David Plouffe , the president’s former campaign manager. ‘Local Races’ “These are local races,” he said in an interview yesterday on Bloomberg Television. “By Thursday or Friday the remnants of this will be forgotten.” Tom Reynolds , a former congressman from New York and head of the National Republican Congressional Committee , agreed. “It probably will have little to do with next year’s outcome,” he said. “Whether it is who wins the House baseball game or a fight in the off-year, people are wanting to take credit.” While voters in Virginia said the race wasn’t a referendum on Obama, the low turnout among blacks and young voters was a failure of his grassroots campaign machine , said Jennifer Duffy , an analyst at the Cook Political Report in Washington. “Looking to 2010, it’s a good lesson to relearn,” she said. “It’s not going to be the silver bullet for Democrats.” Amo Houghton , a former New York congressman and founder of the Republican Main Street Partnership , which promotes centrist Republicans, said the ouster of Scozzafava by Hoffman could be a bad omen for the party. Hoffman had assailed Scozzafava’s support for the stimulus, gay marriage and abortion rights. Owens had 49 percent of the vote, compared with 45.6 percent for Hoffman. ‘Tragic’ “It’s tragic,” he said. “You don’t turn on your own people if you believe in the country and the two-party system.” Armey said Republicans would have won if they “had nominated a true conservative from the outset.” John Lapp, who was the director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in 2006 under then Illinois Representative Rahm Emanuel , said the results last night could impair Republicans chances in swing districts, such as the Northeast, where there are only two Republican senators, Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins of Maine. “There has been a purist civil war, revolution for the heart and soul of the party and the moderates have lost,” Lapp said. To contact the reporter on this story: Heidi Przybyla in Washington at hprzybyla@bloomberg.net .

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CIT Bonds Show Bankruptcy May Be Foregone Conclusion as Debt Exchange Ends

October 28, 2009

By Pierre Paulden and Caroline Salas Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) — CIT Group Inc. bond and credit- default swap prices show that investors are betting the 101- year-old commercial lender will file for bankruptcy after a debt exchange expires today. Since CIT Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Peek started a $30 billion debt swap Oct. 1, the company’s notes due Nov. 3 have dropped 13 cents to 67 cents on the dollar, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. Holders of the $500 million in notes are being offered 90 cents on the dollar in new debt and equity in an out-of-court exchange. They would get 70 cents on the dollar in bonds and new stock in a pre-packaged bankruptcy. “We believe they will file for bankruptcy within the week, provided nothing unexpected occurs,” Adam Steer , an analyst with CreditSights Inc. in New York, said in a telephone interview. CIT, which lost $5 billion in the past nine quarters and failed to get a second round of taxpayer funding in July, is seeking to avert collapse by asking bondholders to agree to the swap or vote for the pre-packaged bankruptcy. It faces opposition from billionaire investor Carl Icahn , who says he’s the largest bondholder, with $2 billion in debt. If CIT is forced into a “free-fall” bankruptcy, unsecured claims may fetch as little as 6 cents on the dollar, Peek said. Bankruptcy Alternative If the debt swap fails, CIT plans to file for bankruptcy before $800 million of bonds mature next week , according to people familiar with the situation who declined to be identified because the talks are private. A group of bondholders that provided the emergency financing in July has always preferred a pre-packaged bankruptcy that would have the New York-based company emerge from court proceedings in 60 days, the people said. The debt-exchange offer expires at 11:59 p.m. Curt Ritter, a CIT spokesman, declined to comment. In its statement yesterday, the lender said “through the substantial deleveraging featured in CIT’s restructuring plan, whether completed in or out of court, the company is confident that CIT will emerge as a strong bank-holding company with improved capital, liquidity and earnings potential.” CIT finances about 1 million businesses from Dunkin’ Brands Inc. in Canton, Massachusetts, to Eddie Bauer Holdings Inc., the clothing chain in Bellevue, Washington, that is operating under bankruptcy protection. The company says it’s the third-largest U.S. railcar-leasing firm and the world’s third-biggest aircraft financier. Bondholder Assistance The company said yesterday it received $4.5 billion in loans from a “diverse group” of lenders, including some of its bondholders, to finance its restructuring, spurning an offer for a loan of the same size from Icahn. The money will be used to “finance a portion of the company’s existing secured indebtedness, which may come due as a result of restructuring,” CIT said in a statement. The CIT notes due Nov. 3 fell 2.5 cents to 67 cents on the dollar yesterday, Trace data show. The cost to protect CIT debt against default for five years has risen 4.7 percentage points to 38.7 percent upfront since Sept. 30, according to CMA DataVision. That means it would cost $3.87 million initially and $500,000 annually to protect $10 million of CIT bonds from default for five years. The cost of the credit-default swaps implies that traders have priced in an 86 percent chance that the company will default within five years, a standard pricing model used by Bloomberg shows. The model assumes investors could recover 40 cents on the dollar in a bankruptcy proceeding. ‘Default Is Imminent’ “The credit-default-swap market is telling you default is imminent,” Kevin Starke , an analyst at CRT Capital Group LLC in Stamford, Connecticut, said in a telephone interview. “The bond prices are indicating the pre-pack is likely.” Credit-default swaps are financial instruments based on bonds and loans that are used to speculate on a company’s ability to repay debt or to hedge against losses. They pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a borrower fail to adhere to its debt agreements. Shares in CIT rose 10 cents, or 10.4 percent, to $1.06 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares, which traded at more than $61 each in February 2007, have lost 77 percent this year. Icahn, 73, who built his reputation in the 1980s as a corporate raider, said this week that CIT debt is worth more in a traditional bankruptcy and proposed to buy holders’ bonds for 60 cents on the dollar in a tender offer lasting 30 days if they reject CIT’s plans. Maturing Debt About $9.11 billion of CIT loans and bonds mature through 2010, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The company has $47.2 billion of loans and bonds, Bloomberg data show. CIT altered the terms of its debt-exchange plan yesterday so that if it filed for a pre-packaged bankruptcy, bondholders will get to recommend a majority of its directors. The steering committee comprising Capital Research & Management Co., Centerbridge Partners LP, Oaktree Capital Management LLC and Silver Point Capital LP will identify four of the 13 directors. Other investors who own at least 1 percent of CIT’s bonds and unsecured bank debt can recommend three directors. CIT turned to its bondholders in July for the $3 billion rescue financing after failing to win access to a Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. program to sell U.S.-backed debt. The company had received $2.33 billion in taxpayer funds in December to stay afloat. To contact the reporters on this story: Pierre Paulden in New York at ppaulden@bloomberg.net ; Caroline Salas in New York at csalas1@bloomberg.net

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Senator Snowe Says She Won’t Back Any Immediate Public Option (Transcript)

October 23, 2009

Oct. 22 (Bloomberg) — Senator Olympia Snowe, the only Republican so far to vote for health-care legislation, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Political Capital with Al Hunt,” airing this weekend, that she won’t support the immediate creation of any government-run insurance program and raised the possibility that legislation overhauling the health system won’t be completed this year. (This is not a legal transcript. Bloomberg LP cannot guarantee its accuracy.) AL HUNT: And we begin the program with Senator Olympia Snowe of Maine. Senator, thank you for joining us. You voted for the finance committee bill, but you said there’s no assurance you’d vote for a bill on the floor. A lot has happened in the last 10 days. From what you’ve seen and what you’ve heard and from what you’ve been told, is it more or less likely today that you’ll vote for a bill in the Senate? SENATOR OLYMPIA SNOWE: Well, you know, it’s an interesting question because we really don’t have an understanding yet in terms of how it’s going to be merged between the health committee legislation and the finance committee. That process is under way now. I’ve had several discussions this week with the Senate majority leader, Senator Reid, along with Senator Ben Nelson, a centrist Democrat, so we’ve had several of those conversations, along with Chairman Baucus and other senators. HUNT: Has it moved the dial anymore? SNOWE: We hope so. I mean in terms of the public-option question which I am opposed to, I have proposed it triggers a safety net fallback which I think would really accomplish the same goal in the event that that the insurance industry doesn’t perform and meet the standards under the legislation to develop affordable plans for consumers. So it’s – and then there are a number of other issues. HUNT: Do you think that Senator Reid may be open to that trigger idea as opposed to a full public option? SNOWE: It’s possible. I know the president has also been receptive to the idea, but obviously has been a proponent of the public option and so they’re working through those issues. There’s differences. There are differences within the Democratic caucus which are difficult ones, so they’ll have to resolve that. HUNT: You wouldn’t accept any public option. I mean no matter how they couch it, how they change it, whatever, you wouldn’t accept any public option other than a trigger? Is that a fact? SNOWE: That’s correct. You know, I haven’t thought of any other calculation, but a public option at the forefront really does put the government in a disproportionate position with respect to the industry. The industry has failed to measure up. There’s no question. HUNT: Right. SNOWE: But we are reforming all that and putting in a lot of changes in the legislation to alter the status quo to ensure that they will have incentives to perform. But if they didn’t, then you still have the threat and the lever of a fallback position and a mechanism that could certainly serve the same purpose. In fact, the Congressional Budget Office said it could accomplish as much as $10-to-$15 billion in savings just by having the threat of that mechanism – HUNT: Being there. SNOWE: Right. HUNT: Even a public option that gives states the option, even that would be a deal-killer for Olympia Snowe? SNOWE: Well, I wouldn’t say – characterize it as, you know, in such strong terms as deal-breakers, but yes, I’m opposed to it. I would prefer to see the private sector with the right incentives, with the right reforms against their egregious practices – banning all those practices, provide tax credits and subsidies, and allow competition to take hold in the exchange as a way in which to I think leverage the whole process, but also having the safety net of a fallback so if in the event it doesn’t work, it kicks in simultaneously. So it wouldn’t be a gap in time. In other words, it’d be a seamless process. HUNT: Senator, President Obama once pledged that these deliberations would be broadcast on C-SPAN. They haven’t been. There’s been a lot of private negotiations in the last 10 days. Senate Democrats, White House, you’ve been involved in some, the bipartisan centrist group. Are you satisfied with the progress and that you’ve been sufficiently included? SNOWE: Well, I think, so far, I mean I certainly can’t complain from the standpoint that I was part of the group of six for almost four months where we had multiple sessions on a weekly basis. HUNT: But right now do you think the deliberations are – SNOWE: Well, it’s a good question. I mean I think that obviously that the senators, in making decisions with the Senate leadership and the White House, it remains to be seen. I think the key where accountability will matter is when you see the product. I think the product has to be out there on the Web site available to everybody. That transparency and accountability is essential, so it has to be up there. And the majority – HUNT: You went to lunch – there was a meeting on Thursday. There was a meeting of the centrists. SNOWE: Correct. HUNT: Did that include some Republicans other than you, too? SNOWE: I think one – there was one other Republican. HUNT: Senator Collins? SNOWE: Yes, that’s right. HUNT: So she’s open to – SNOWE: Well, you have to – HUNT: (Inaudible) SNOWE: – I mean obviously everybody has very different views and I think, too, there has to be a comfort level in all this. I mean you’re talking about a thousand-page document essentially. It has a lot of complex policy intricacies, it’s interwoven. And I think it’s going to take a great deal of time for everybody to get up to a certain level of understanding in how it works and to have a basis of understanding and then determine how best to go about changing it. In fact, I’ve suggested to the Senate majority leader that there should be some tutorials in the Senate before we even begin to proceed to the debate. HUNT: Do you have one or two major fixes from these bills that you would like to see that would really improve it in the final version? SNOWE: Yes. I have suggested some ideas on terms of affordability. We’re still wrestling with that key question in terms of affordability to the consumer. What is the product going to look like at the end because we know Americans rightfully are going to say well, what does this benefit mean for me? HUNT: Right. SNOWE: What are my premiums? What are my costs and so on? And so we have to make sure we know that. That’s why I’ve elicited from staff for the data and CBO – the Congressional Budget Office – to come up with charts because I think we should have charts on every year and how are these benefits going to be designed and what will it mean to the average American. Secondly, I think that we have to make sure that there are a range of affordable plans so that we’re not requiring people to buy into plans for example that perhaps are too expensive, even with the tax credits and subsidies. So I’m recommending, for example, the one that we’re going to use for young invincibles – for those that are 25 and younger – it’s a catastrophic plan but prevention wouldn’t be covered in first dollar coverage – to allow that to be available to everyone because I think that would ease the pressure on the question of affordability if they didn’t want to go up to the bronze plan or the silver plan or whatever. HUNT: As you know, some Republicans say the best course politically is just to let the bill die. Jim DeMint of South Carolina said that. In 1994, the death of health care was a bonanza for Republicans. Wouldn’t that be true this time, too? SNOWE: Well, I don’t see it as a bonanza. I mean I understand the political calculus, but I think it would be a mistake. Frankly, the Democrats have the numbers numerically. HUNT: Right. SNOWE: You know, they have the votes in the Senate – maybe not philosophically, but they have the votes and they have the votes in the House. So the question is whether or not you’re willing to be sitting at the table or being a bystander. The Democrats don’t have all the good ideas, and nor do the Republicans. The question is a melding. And so I think it’s important for Republicans to be at the table and to incorporate their good ideas. I think it would enhance the legislation and make it a better product. HUNT: When do you think Congress will have a final up or down vote on this piece of legislation? SNOWE: Well, Christmas might be too soon. I mean this is a very – it’s a very difficult – HUNT: So it may slip over until next year? SNOWE: Well, you know, there’s always that possibility. I know that’s not what the president prefers or the – HUNT: You’re not saying that’s likely? SNOWE: No, I’m just saying that that – you know, I would – nothing would surprise me because of the complexity. We’re at at this point. HUNT: But you doubt it’ll be done much before Christmas? SNOWE: Not much before – HUNT: Okay. SNOWE: We should give it the time it deserves. The American people understand that. That’s why they’re apprehensive about the way in which we’re going about it. They don’t want it railroaded. They don’t want it put on a fast track. They want us to give it the thought it needs and requires, and that’s why I’ve tried to slow the process down. HUNT: Senator Snowe, thank you so much for being with us. SNOWE: Thank you. ***END OF TRANSCRIPT*** THIS TRANSCRIPT MAY NOT BE 100 PERCENT ACCURATE AND MAY CONTAIN MISSPELLINGS AND OTHER INACCURACIES. THIS TRANSCRIPT IS PROVIDED “AS IS,” WITHOUT EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND. BLOOMBERG RETAINS ALL RIGHTS TO THIS TRANSCRIPT AND PROVIDES IT SOLELY FOR YOUR PERSONAL, NON-COMMERCIAL USE. BLOOMBERG, ITS SUPPLIERS AND THIRD-PARTY AGENTS SHALL HAVE NO LIABILITY FOR ERRORS IN THIS TRANSCRIPT OR FOR LOST PROFITS, PERFORMANCE, OR USE OF SUCH TRANSCRIPT. NEITHER THE INFORMATION NOR ANY OPINION EXPRESSED IN THIS TRANSCRIPT CONSTITUTES A SOLICITATION OF THE PURCHASE OR SALE OF SECURITIES OR (END) COMMODITIES. ANY OPINION EXPRESSED IN THE TRANSCRIPT DOES NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT THE VIEWS OF BLOOMBERG LP. # # -0- Oct/22/2009 21:30 GMT

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CIT Group’s Changes Do Little to Enhance Debt Exchange, CreditSights Says

October 19, 2009

By Pierre Paulden Oct. 19 (Bloomberg) — CIT Group Inc. , the 101-year-old commercial lender seeking to avoid collapse, changed the terms of a debt exchange two weeks after proposing bondholders swap $29 billion of securities. CIT “has done very little to meaningfully enhance the offer” to the majority of senior unsecured bondholders of the holding company, said Adam Steer , an analyst at CreditSights Inc. in New York. Under the revised terms, maturities on new notes issued in exchange for existing bonds will be shortened by six months, CIT said Oct. 16. The New York-based company will also boost the amount of equity offered to subordinated debt holders and include notes due after 2018 that previously weren’t part of the exchange offer or reorganization plan that was announced Oct. 1. CIT is seeking to reduce debt by at least $5.7 billion after being locked out of the unsecured debt markets it relies on for funding and posting nine quarters of losses totaling more than $5 billion. At the same time CIT pursues the out-of-court debt swap, it’s also asking bondholders to vote on a prepackaged bankruptcy plan. The changes to the exchange are designed to get the participation of a majority of the subordinated debt bondholders, representing a “sizable chunk” of the threshold that CIT is seeking, Steer said. CreditSights continues to question why holders of longer- dated senior unsecured bonds would prefer the exchange over the prepackaged bankruptcy offer, Steer said. Amended Terms Moody’s Investors Service said Oct. 8 that CIT may need to liquidate if too few investors agree to either the swap or a prepackaged bankruptcy. Five days later, CIT said that Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Peek plans to resign at yearend. Under the amended terms, CIT also would include a “cash sweep mechanism” to accelerate repayment of the new notes; boost the coupon on Series B notes being issued by CIT Delaware Funding to 9 percent from 7 percent; and provide preferred stockholders contingent value rights in the reorganization plan, according to the statement. The exchange offer expires at 11:59 p.m. on Oct. 29, CIT said Oct. 2 in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. CIT said that the offer to exchange notes due after 2018 will expire Nov. 13. “Even if the exchange offer or the pre-packaged bankruptcy is successful, it doesn’t improve CIT’s chances of being a viable company,” said Brian Charles , a debt analyst at brokerage firm RW Pressprich & Co. in New York. Notes Fall CIT’s $500 million of 4.125 percent notes due Nov. 3 have fallen 12 cents on the dollar to 70 cents since Sept. 30, the day before the exchange was announced, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. Under the out-of-court restructuring, bondholders were to receive 70 cents to 90 cents on the dollar in the form of new debt, plus 94 percent of the equity in the company, according to the filing. This excluded most unsecured notes. With the prepackaged bankruptcy plan, bondholders would have received 70 cents on the dollar in the form of new 7 percent notes, plus 83.4 percent of equity in the reorganized company, according to an Oct. 8 report from CRT Capital Group LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. This excludes most unsecured notes maturing after 2018, which are left in place, CRT said. ‘Strong Capital Position’ “A strong capital position and liquidity profile should afford CIT the time and resources required to execute on its broad business restructuring strategy, including refinement of its business model, liquidation or sale of select business portfolios, efficiency enhancements and long term bank-centric funding strategy,” the company said in its amended offering memorandum. CIT, which has $42.8 billion in bonds and loans outstanding, funds about 1 million businesses from Dunkin’ Brands Inc. in Canton, Massachusetts, to Eddie Bauer Holdings Inc., the bankrupt clothing chain in Bellevue, Washington. CIT says it’s the third-largest U.S. railcar-leasing firm and the world’s third-biggest aircraft financier. A collapse would ripple across the “small and medium-sized businesses who rely on the finance company to operate — to pay their vendors, ship goods to their customers and make their payroll,” CIT said in internal documents obtained by Bloomberg News in July that make the case for its importance to the U.S. economy. Rescue Financing CIT turned to bondholders in July for $3 billion in rescue financing after failing to win access to a Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. program to sell U.S.-backed debt. “There is no appreciable likelihood of additional government support being provided over the near term,” CIT said in a statement at the time. The U.S. government committed $2.33 billion in taxpayer funds in December 2008 to keep CIT afloat. Pacific Investment Management Co. and Baupost Group LLC resigned more than a month ago from a steering committee that had to approve the restructuring plan. The remaining creditors on the committee are Centerbridge Partners LP, Oaktree Capital Management LLC, Capital Research & Management Co. and Silver Point Capital LP. CIT may receive a loan of as much as $6 billion from bondholders that helped provide the emergency financing, a person familiar with the matter said this month. The funds are intended to finance a prepackaged bankruptcy if the out-of-court exchange fails to gain enough support, the person said. To contact the reporters on this story: Pierre Paulden in New York at ppaulden@bloomberg.net

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Gold at $2,000 Becomes Inflation-Adjusted Target for Bulls Eyeing ’80 High

October 19, 2009

By Pham-Duy Nguyen Oct. 19 (Bloomberg) — Gold’s rally to a record means prices are still 53 percent below the 1980 inflation-adjusted peak . While gold rose 19 percent this year to $1,072 an ounce on Oct. 14, consumer prices almost tripled in the past three decades, eroding the metal’s value. Bullion hasn’t kept pace with the cost of bread, fuel or medical care. In 1980, gold hit a then-record $873 an ounce. In today’s dollars, that would be $2,287, according to the U.S. Labor Department’s inflation calculator . Record government debt and interest rates close to zero percent are pushing gold higher for a ninth straight year, and options show investors expect the rally to continue. When prices reached all-time highs, the contract with the most open interest was the December call to buy the metal at $1,200. The contract to purchase at $1,500 an ounce was the third biggest. “Gold is not at any peak,” said Martin Murenbeeld , the chief economist at Toronto-based DundeeWealth Inc., which manages $58.5 billion in mutual funds and brokerage accounts. “The world’s money supply has increased and gold hasn’t kept pace,” he said. “We’re now in a period where gold is catching up.” The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the currency against those of six major trading partners, fell on Oct. 15 to the lowest level in 14 months, and has dropped about 7 percent this year. President Barack Obama has increased the nation’s marketable debt 22 percent to $7.01 trillion to revive growth. Preserving Value Gold bulls say today’s record borrowing and low interest rates mean the government will have to accept faster inflation as the economy recovers. Investors buy bullion to preserve value during times of turmoil and economic stress. Financial institutions worldwide have reported credit losses and writedowns of about $1.62 trillion since the start of 2007, when the credit crisis began. Group of 20 governments have pledged about $11.9 trillion to ease credit and revive economic growth, according to the International Monetary Fund . “Gold is the hedge against currency devaluation,” John Brynjolfsson , of hedge fund Armored Wolf LLC, said in a Bloomberg Television interview from Aliso Viejo, California, on Oct. 7. He predicted bullion will top $2,000. Banks have raised their gold estimates. On Oct. 9, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said the metal will average $1,006 an ounce next year, compared with an earlier projection of $950. Deutsche Bank AG forecast an average of $1,150, up 32 percent from its estimate in July. Barclays Capital said Oct. 12 that “prospects for a run at $1,500 should not be underestimated” next year. Understated CPI Gold would need to rise more than sixfold to top the 1980 record, using a more accurate inflation-adjustment, said John Williams, an economist and the editor of Berkeley, California- based Shadowstats.com . He said the government has understated the cost of living over the past two decades with adjustments in the way it measures the basket of goods and services monitored by the U.S. consumer price index, or CPI. Gold futures for December delivery closed Oct. 16 at $1,051.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex division, gaining for a third straight week. “If the methodologies of measuring inflation in 1980 had been kept intact, gold would have to hit $7,150 to be the equivalent of the 1980 record,” Williams said. The cost of living in the U.S. rose 0.2 percent last month, the Labor Department said on Oct. 16. Compared with a year earlier, consumer prices fell 1.3 percent. The CPI will drop 0.5 percent this year, before rising 1.9 percent in 2010, reflected by the median estimates of 61 economists in a Bloomberg survey. Annual increases averaged 2.8 percent a year in the past decade. Purchasing-Power Adjustment In March 1980, inflation surged to a 14.8 percent annual rate, two months after gold capped a four-year rally. Adjusted for the decline in the dollar’s purchasing power since then, gold’s Oct. 14 record of $1,072 represents the equivalent of $409 in 1980 dollars, the Labor Department calculator shows. Since January 1980, the average price of a pound of white bread has risen almost threefold, from about 50 cents to $1.38 in August, and medical care has surged more than fivefold, Labor Department figures show. Gasoline and electricity prices have more than doubled. Today, the gap between gold’s spot price and its CPI- adjusted equivalent is the widest ever. Gold hasn’t been as effective a hedge against inflation as oil since the 1980s, said Matt Zeman , of LaSalle Futures Group LLC in Chicago. Oil Beats Gold Crude passed its 1981 inflation-adjusted record two years ago. The cost of imported oil averaged $39 a barrel in February 1981, after Iran cut exports, according to the Energy Department. That’s $89 in 2007 dollars, the Labor Department calculator shows. Oil reached a record $147.27 on July 11, 2008, and closed at $78.53 on Oct. 16 in New York trading. “If you bought gold in the 1980s, you’re still losing money today,” said Zeman, a metals trader. Gold prices in New York languished for two decades after declining from the 1980 record, dropping to a 20-year low of $253.20 on July 20, 1999. While bulls say gold is cheap, the inflation-adjusted price is 15 percent above its 30-year average, Bloomberg data show. The Federal Reserve may limit gains by raising interest rates before inflation balloons, analysts said. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said on Oct. 8 that policy makers will need to raise interest rates “at some point” to control inflation. ‘Prepared to Tighten’ “When the economic outlook has improved sufficiently, we will be prepared to tighten,” Bernanke said in remarks prepared for an Oct. 8 conference in Washington. Fed moves to cool inflation and the government’s revenue needs will stop gold, according to Jon Nadler , a senior analyst for Montreal metals dealer and refiner Kitco Inc. “These wild calls for several-thousand-dollar gold are typical of times when gold goes into uncharted territory,” Nadler said. “The Fed will pull the interest-rate trigger and the Obama administration will, in addition, pull the tax-hike trigger before we get into any serious inflation. Once the man on the street gets in, the gold rally is likely over.” Gold held in exchange-traded funds climbed to records this month at Zuercher Kantonalbank and ETF Securities Ltd. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust , the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, are up 42 percent this year. Hedge funds and other large speculators hold their most-bullish position ever in gold futures. So-called net-long positions, or bets prices will rise, increased by 6 percent to 253,955 contracts in the week ended Oct. 13, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Gold Producers The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold & Silver Index jumped 43 percent this year, as Phoenix-based Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. tripled. Toronto-based Barrick Gold Corp. , the world’s largest producer, fell 10 percent. Barrick said Sept. 8 it will record $5.6 billion in third-quarter costs to eliminate fixed- price contracts as the company bets gold’s value will climb. At Jersey, Channel Islands-based GoldMoney.com , which held $759 million of gold and silver for investors as of Sept. 30, founder James Turk said bullion can climb eightfold based on the historical relationship between the metal and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Dow is up 10-fold since January 1980. Gold and the Dow, which has gained 14 percent this year to 9,995.91, were at about the same level during the Great Depression and the early 1980s, he said. On Jan. 21, 1980, as gold futures surged to $873, the Dow slipped to 946.25. “The dollar is constantly being debased and inflated,” Turk said. “By 2013, gold is going to be at $8,000 and the Dow will be at 8,000.” Gold-Dollar Link Deutsche Bank said early this month that the dollar will fall to $1.60 per euro next year, a drop of 7.3 percent from last week, because of “rising fiscal deficits and loose monetary policy.” Gold has moved in the opposite direction of the dollar over most of the past decade. The metal’s correlation coefficient to the U.S. Dollar Index is minus 0.8539, Bloomberg data show. A correlation of minus 1 indicates two assets move inversely to each other, while a 1 would show they move in tandem. A reading of zero shows no correlation. Philip Gotthelf , the president of Equidex Brokerage Group Inc. in Closter, New Jersey, says he expects gold to trade at $1,250 by year-end. “Gold has been pushing higher because it’s no longer just a hedge against commodity inflation, it’s also a hedge against a change in world-monetary standards.” To contact the reporter on this story: Pham-Duy Nguyen in Seattle at pnguyen@bloomberg.net .

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UBS Account Amnesty Deadline Adds Need for Therapy to Lawyer Consultations

October 13, 2009

By Carlyn Kolker and David Voreacos Oct. 13 (Bloomberg) — With a U.S. deadline three days away, clients of UBS AG and other foreign banks have turned law offices into therapy suites as they seek advice on whether to reveal offshore accounts to tax authorities or risk prosecution. Attorneys helping taxpayers navigate the Internal Revenue Service voluntary disclosure program are hearing dramas that mix personal finance with fear, including stories of cash stashed beneath homes during the Holocaust, accounts hidden from spouses and relatives who might be implicated, tax lawyers say. “Some people come in and are very nervous,” said Barbara Kaplan , an attorney at Greenberg Traurig in New York, who represents about 75 taxpayers who plan to come forward. “With some, there are lots of tears. I tell them I can’t deal with their emotional issues relating to this. You have to talk to your therapist about that. I charge too much for that.” The program, ending Oct. 15, lets taxpayers avoid prosecution and public disclosure of their identities by revealing their accounts and paying back taxes, fines and penalties. More than 3,000 signed up through Sept. 21. The IRS made the offer March 26, a month after Zurich-based UBS paid $780 million and avoided prosecution by admitting it helped Americans evade taxes. UBS, the largest Swiss bank, first agreed in February to give names of 250 U.S. taxpayers to the government. In August, it agreed to disclose another 4,450. The voluntary disclosure program isn’t open to taxpayers already under scrutiny by the IRS. Since December 2007, six UBS clients pleaded guilty and a seventh agreed to do so. A UBS banker pleaded guilty; two were indicted; and three Europeans were charged with enabling U.S. tax evasion. The Justice Department has said 150 taxpayers are under criminal investigation. Tax Requirements U.S. taxpayers can legally hold securities in other countries or withdraw funds from foreign accounts. They are, however, required to disclose their existence on annual tax forms filed with the IRS and a Report of Foreign Bank or Financial Accounts, or FBAR. Failure to do so could lead to prosecution for tax evasion or filing a false tax report. “I’ve got people in complete denial, and people who are panicked out of their mind,” said Robert Katzberg of New York- based Kaplan & Katzberg, who represents 18 clients making disclosures to the IRS. “There are myriad different human considerations.” Some clients would rather risk prosecution than pay fines and penalties, Katzberg said. Others choose to disclose their accounts, he added. FBAR Penalties Under U.S. law, the IRS can confiscate half of an offshore account’s value when the holder deliberately fails to disclose it. The penalty can apply each year the FBAR form isn’t filed. As an incentive to join the amnesty program, the IRS will take 20 percent of the account’s assets based on its peak value in the previous six years. If an account was inactive, it may take as little as 5 percent. One advantage to the program is that it allows U.S. clients to repatriate foreign assets that are illiquid and cannot be moved easily back into the country, lawyers say. A U.S. surveillance system that reviews large cash transfers is intended to prevent fraud, money laundering, and the movement of funds by terrorists. Such transactions often trigger the filing of a so-called suspicious activity report by the Treasury Department, which can prompt investigations into the money’s source. Clients who reveal their accounts to the IRS also can avoid the notoriety of prosecution, Kaplan said. Avoiding Embarrassment “Most of the people are very interested in anonymity,” she said. “They don’t want their name in the press. Probably for some it is an incentive. You won’t be embarrassed or vilified in your country.” A man who contacted Katzberg before the UBS settlement and chose not to reveal his assets had fled his native Poland after the 1939 Nazi invasion. After emigrating to the U.S., he kept a UBS account, which grew to millions of dollars, Katzberg said. He wanted the assurance of the safety of Switzerland’s banking system, according to the lawyer. The man, who Katzberg declined to identify, is unmarried and is leaving the U.S. government his money when he dies, the lawyer said. Still, he refused to come forward because he doesn’t think Switzerland would betray his trust, Katzberg said. “It broke my heart,” said the lawyer, who said he advised the man to disclose the account. Some people are keeping their accounts secret to avoid implicating Swiss lawyers, U.S. accountants and relatives, he said. Rush of Clients The extension of the disclosure deadline, originally Sept. 23, spurred a rush of clients, tax lawyers said. So have letters from UBS telling ex-customers they may be on the list given to the U.S., they say. Fifty clients approached the New York law firm Kostelanetz & Fink in the past week, attorney Robert Fink said. The firm represents 300 people making voluntary disclosures. Preparing the IRS’s disclosure papers has forced some people to revisit their personal histories, Fink said. “The wrenching stories are the Holocaust survivors” who sought Swiss bank accounts as safe havens, Fink said. One client survived a concentration camp then opened a Swiss bank account with money he retrieved that his family hid in Budapest during World War II, the lawyer said. He never found the silver his parents had hidden in a well beneath their house. Other clients divulged deep-seated fears of the U.S. banking system that led them to stash money in Switzerland in the first place, said William Sharp , a Tampa, Florida-based attorney. “They were concerned about the U.S. abandoning the gold standard in the ‘70s,” Sharp said. “Some people were concerned about the Soviet threat. They had legitimate fears about the safety of the U.S. banking system.” To contact the reporters on this story: Carlyn Kolker in New York at ckolker@bloomberg.net and; David Voreacos in Newark, New Jersey, at dvoreacos@bloomberg.net .

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