stocks

Tax Cuts Raise Expectations For Economy In 2011

December 22, 2010

WASHINGTON — Expectations for economic growth next year are turning more optimistic now that Americans will have a little more cash in their pockets. A cut in workers’ Social Security taxes and rising consumer spending have led economists to predict a strong start for 2011. Still, most people won’t feel much better until employers ramp up hiring and people buy more homes. Analysts are predicting economic growth next year will come in next year close to 4 percent. It would mark an improvement from the 2.8 percent growth expected for this year and would be the strongest showing since 2000. “Looking ahead, circumstances are ripe for the economy to develop additional traction,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc. in New York. He is estimating growth for 2011 to be above 3.5 percent. The economy grew at a moderate pace last summer, reflecting stronger spending by businesses to replenish stockpiles, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Gross domestic product increased at a 2.6 percent annual rate in the July-September quarter. That’s up from the 2.5 percent pace estimated a month ago. While businesses spent more to build inventories, consumers spent a bit less. Many analysts predict the economy strengthened in the October-December quarter. They think the economy is growing at a 3.5 percent pace or better mainly because consumers are spending more freely again. Still, the housing market remains a drag on the slowly improving economy. The National Association of Realtors reported Wednesday that more people bought previously owned homes rose in November. The sales pace rose 5.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.68 million units. Even with the gain, sales are still well below what analysts consider a healthy pace. Even if analysts are right about 2011 being a better year for the economy, growth still wouldn’t be strong enough to dramatically lower the 9.8 percent unemployment rate. By some estimates, the economy would need to grow by 5 percent for a full year to push down the unemployment rate by a full percentage point. Even with growth at around 4 percent, as many analysts predict, the unemployment rate is still expected to hover around 9 percent. The third-quarter’s performance marks an improvement from the feeble 1.7 percent growth logged in the April-June quarter. The economy’s growth slowed sharply then. Fears about the European debt crisis roiled Wall Street and prompted businesses to limit their spending. “It sure looks like the `soft patch’ is over,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight. In the third quarter, greater spending by businesses on replenishing their stocks was the main factor behind the slight upward revision to GDP. Consumers boosted their spending at a 2.4 percent pace. That was down from a 2.8 percent growth rate previously estimated. Even so, consumers increased their spending at the fastest pace in four years. The slight downward revision reflected less spending on health care and financial services than previously estimated. More recent reports from retailers, however, show that shoppers are spending at a greater rate in the final months of the year. Companies are discounting merchandise to lure shoppers. A price gauge tied to the GDP report showed that prices – excluding food and energy – rose at a 0.5 percent pace in the third quarter, the slowest quarterly pace on records going back to 1959. Americans have more reasons to be confident. Stock prices are rising, helping Americans regain vast losses in wealth suffered during the recession. Job insecurity remains a problem, but the hiring market is slowly improving. And loans aren’t as difficult to obtain for those with solid credit histories. Even with the improvements, though, consumers are showing some restraint. In the past, lavish spending by consumers propelled the economy to grow at a rapid pace. After the 1981-1982 recession, the economy expanded at a 9.3 percent clip. Consumers increased their spending at an 8.2 percent pace. Consumers have yet to display that level of confidence in the economy. While hiring is improving, employers still aren’t adding enough jobs to lower the unemployment rate. Even with stronger economic growth anticipated for next year, analysts predict it will still take until near the end of this decade to drop unemployment back down to a more normal 5.5 percent to 6 percent level. The government’s estimate of GDP in the July-September quarter was its third and final one. The government makes a total of three estimates for any given quarter. Each new reading is based on more complete information. GDP measures the value of all goods and services – from machinery to manicures – produced within the United States.

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European Stocks fall by Mid-day

December 17, 2010

European Stocks fall by Mid-day

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European Stocks Decline by Closing Friday

December 17, 2010

European Stocks Decline by Closing Friday

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European Stocks slightly changed by closing Thursday

December 16, 2010

European Stocks slightly changed by closing Thursday

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Dan Solin: Foolish Advice From the Motley Fool

December 14, 2010

Matt Koppenheffer at the Motley Fool recently took issue with me for a blog I wrote called ” Ten Investing Facts You Probably Don’t Know — but Should “. Mr. Koppenheffer is a contributing writer to the Motley Fool. His biography touts his skills as a stock researcher and indicates that he is an “unabashed fan” of Warren Buffett. Before taking shots at my statement that Buffett is a proponent of indexed based investing, and touting the screens he uses to pick stock winners, Mr. Koppenheffer pointedly notes that being an index fund adviser “seems like a bit of an oxymoron” to him. Perhaps Mr. Koppenheffer’s readers are able to put together a globally diversified, risk adjusted, portfolio of fifteen passively managed funds, in the right asset allocation, with a tilt towards small and value, consistent with the Fama-French three factor model , on their own. Personally, I have never met anyone who could do this without expert advice. From there, it got worse. Mr. Koppenheffer correctly noted that the one article I referred to as support for Buffett’s views on indexing stated that, on this occasion, he indicated indexing was the best way to invest for “…small investors who don’t have time to research individual companies.” Fair point. However, as a self-styled fan of Buffett, surely Mr. Koppenheffer was aware that Buffett, at many other times, indicated his view that indexing was the best way to invest for all amateur and professional investors. Here is a fair representation of these views: ” A very low-cost index is going to beat a majority of the amateur-managed money or professionally-managed money… I would just have it all in a very low-cost index fund from a reputable firm, maybe Vanguard. Unless I bought during a strong bull market, I would feel confident that I would outperform… and I could just go back and get on with my work.” With his misrepresentation of Buffett’s real views in the minds of his readers, Mr. Koppenheffer offers them his stock picking advice. He likes to use screens, like valuation multiples, company performance metrics and others. He then provides a list of the stocks that some of his “favorite screens” have identified (or, as he put it “spits out.”) Why these screens would identify any mis-pricing of these stocks eludes me. All of these factors are known to millions of investors worldwide looking at the same data. It is incorporated into the price of these (and all other) stocks, making the current price a fair price. These specific stocks may increase or decrease in value, but it won’t be due to the factors identified in Mr. Koppenheffer’s screens. It will be based on tomorrow’s news, which no one knows or can predict. Mr. Koppenheffer dismisses proponents of indexing with some disdain, calling them non-investors who “…would rather watch a Dharma and Greg rerun, reorganize their closet, or go to the dentist.” Not exactly. They include William Bernstein, Merton Miller (a Nobel Laureate), Paul Samuelson (another Nobel Laureate), and Burton Malkiel, among many others. Indexing is also supported by hundreds of academic studies showing only about 5% of stock pickers beat their appropriate benchmark. William Sharpe, still another Nobel Laureate, spelled out the reasons for the failure of active management (which is premised on stock picking) in this short article entitled ” The Arithmetic of Active Management “. I urge you to read it. It is simply stated, easy-to-understand and irrefutable. Mr. Koppenheffer cites no data supporting his stock picking advice, which is not surprising. He also provides no data from which his readers can hold him accountable for his prior stock picks. The thrill of the chase is exciting. Mr. Koppenheffer and many other members of the financial media see no problem in dispensing advice that generates profits for them (by increasing viewers which boosts revenues) even though those who follow this advice are likely to be harmed by it. This is not just “foolish”. It’s irresponsible. The views set forth in this blog are the opinions of the author alone and may not represent the views of any firm or entity with whom he is affiliated. The data, information, and content on this blog are for information, education, and non-commercial purposes only. Returns from index funds do not represent the performance of any investment advisory firm. The information on this blog does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice and is limited to the dissemination of opinions on investing. No reader should construe these opinions as an offer of advisory services. Readers who require investment advice should retain the services of a competent investment professional. The information on this blog is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities or class of securities mentioned herein. Furthermore, the information on this blog should not be construed as an offer of advisory services. Please note that the author does not recommend specific securities nor is he responsible for comments made by persons posting on this blog. Here is the trailer for my new book, Timeless Investment Advice .

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Euro Stocks close mostly higher Tuesday

December 14, 2010

Euro Stocks close mostly higher Tuesday

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European Stocks Rise Monday

December 13, 2010

European Stocks Rise Monday

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European Stocks Close Mixed but Hold Weekly Gains

December 10, 2010

European Stocks Close Mixed but Hold Weekly Gains

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European Stocks Close Lower Amid Debt Concerns and Chinese Economic Policy

November 19, 2010

European Stocks Close Lower Amid Debt Concerns and Chinese Economic Policy

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European Stocks Closed Lower Amid Renewed Debt Concerns

November 10, 2010

European Stocks Closed Lower Amid Renewed Debt Concerns

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European Stocks Mixed after US Jobs Report

November 5, 2010

European Stocks Mixed after US Jobs Report

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European Stocks Closed Lower as Retail and Utilities Sectors Lead Decline

November 3, 2010

European Stocks Closed Lower as Retail and Utilities Sectors Lead Decline

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European Stocks Closed Lower as Retail and Utilities Sectors Lead Decline

November 3, 2010

European Stocks Closed Lower as Retail and Utilities Sectors Lead Decline

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European Stocks Closed Mixed as Banking and Technology Weighed Down Good Economic Data

November 1, 2010

European Stocks Closed Mixed as Banking and Technology Weighed Down Good Economic Data

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European Stocks end Monday trading higher

November 1, 2010

European Stocks end Monday trading higher

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European Stocks Closed Mixed as Investors Question Potential QE Success

October 29, 2010

European Stocks Closed Mixed as Investors Question Potential QE Success

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Prepare for High Volatility and Breakouts from the Dollar and Stocks with Fed, ECB, BoE, RBA, BoJ Ahead

October 29, 2010

Prepare for High Volatility and Breakouts from the Dollar and Stocks with Fed, ECB, BoE, RBA, BoJ Ahead

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Prepare for High Volatility and Breakouts from the Dollar and Stocks with Fed, ECB, BoE, RBA, BoJ Ahead

October 29, 2010

Prepare for High Volatility and Breakouts from the Dollar and Stocks with Fed, ECB, BoE, RBA, BoJ Ahead

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European Stocks Close Higher After Fluctuating for Most of the Day

October 20, 2010

European Stocks Close Higher After Fluctuating for Most of the Day

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European Stocks Close Higher Amid Better-than-Expected Earnings

October 18, 2010

European Stocks Close Higher Amid Better-than-Expected Earnings

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European Stocks Close Higher Amid Better-than-Expected Earnings

October 18, 2010

European Stocks Close Higher Amid Better-than-Expected Earnings

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EUR/USD and Stocks Continue to Ride QE Momentum, Will Major Resistance Derail Rally?

October 18, 2010

EUR/USD and Stocks Continue to Ride QE Momentum, Will Major Resistance Derail Rally?

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U.S. Markets Closed Mixed as Tech Stocks Gain while Financials Plummet

October 15, 2010

U.S. Markets Closed Mixed as Tech Stocks Gain while Financials Plummet

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US Dollar Positioning Hints Recovery Ahead as Stocks Form Double Top

October 14, 2010

US Dollar Positioning Hints Recovery Ahead as Stocks Form Double Top

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US Stocks maintained gains throughout the session

October 13, 2010

US Stocks maintained gains throughout the session

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European Stocks Close Higher After Fed Meeting and Better Than Expected Earnings

October 13, 2010

European Stocks Close Higher After Fed Meeting and Better Than Expected Earnings

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European Stocks Close Higher After Fed Meeting and Better Than Expected Earnings

October 13, 2010

European Stocks Close Higher After Fed Meeting and Better Than Expected Earnings

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Dan Dorfman: Funeral For a European Myth

October 8, 2010

Here we go again — the death of another myth, namely the one that Europe’s worrisome sovereign debt crisis has run its course. Far more likely, the evidence shows, we’re in for a rerun. To put it in perspective, let’s turn the clock back about six months when the U.S. stock market was repeatedly getting battered on a daily basis in response to news of swelling debt woes in Europe. Adding to the market’s shellacking at the time were riots in Greece over proposed austerity measures. Then came Superman to the rescue, the European Union, with a promise of a $1 trillion bailout package to stabilize Europe and drive away the bond vigilantes who were selling the debt of the weakest European countries, causing interest rates to rise. In response, the euro, aided by Chinese purchases, proceeded to strengthen, and fears of a debt crisis in Europe greatly diminished, so much so that many market pros have eliminated this risk from their radar screens. Judging though from the recent downgrade of Ireland’s credit by the Fitch rating agency, which came on the heels of earlier downgrades of Spain’s and Portugal’s debt, it’s pretty clear that only Rip Van Winkle would dismiss the danger of a fresh outbreak of European debt problems, which has ominous implications for the world’s financial markets. That’s also the thinking of currency tracker Bryan Rich, editor of the World Currency Alert newsletter in Jupiter, Fla., who says “a higher euro may have instilled some investor confidence, but nothing has changed. Not only does a debt problem exist,” he says, “but it’s getting progressively worse and a default by a European country is only a matter of time.” Addressing the trillion-dollar rescue package, Rich describes it as “nothing more than bold shock and awe, a promise that’s a figment of someone’s imagination.” He notes that a number of the more financially muscular European countries, among them Germany, are already balking at the idea of anteing up funds to help bail out their weaker brethren. London money manager Raymond Stahler of Stahler Dearborn, Ltd., concurs. He describes the $1 trillion promise of aid to the struggling European nations, such as Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain, as a farce. “Handouts are wonderful,” he says, “but not if nobody is handing out.” Rich views the European financial situation as especially scary in Ireland, which he views as most vulnerable to a default. The European Union’s guidelines prohibit its member nations from having their budget deficits, as a percentage of GDP, exceeding 3%. That’s a meaningless number, though, since no one is paying any heed to it. For example, the 2010 estimates call for Ireland to top the limit by more than 10-fold at 32%, followed by Spain at 9.3%, Portugal at 8.8%, Greece at 8.1%, and Italy at 5%. The EU’s limit on total debt, as a percentage of GDP, is 60%. Here again, Ireland strikes out badly. Its 2010 projection had called for 65%; it’s now projected at 110%. Against this background, a massive amount of debt in the European nations has to be rolled over. A dilemma here is that the governments and the banks will be competing for capital, which will drive interest rates higher. That, in turn, will make it difficult for the governments to raise money at rates they can afford, which, in turn, could cripple the ailing economies. At the same time, Rich notes that the European Central Bank, which has been snapping up government debt of struggling countries to keep them solvent, has acquired a lot of crappy debt. A related problem, as he sees it, is the threat of another major wave of risk aversion. That is when capital flees riskier investments and assets. The chief implications, as Rich sees them: Stocks will go lower, the same for commodities, except gold, and it all bodes well for the dollar. What does all of this mean? Rich’s view: “We’re in a crisis period, a deleveraging phase for the world’s economy, so look for more shocks, such as government defaults, bank failures, currency devaluations and rising protectionism.” He doesn’t say it in so many words, but the word from Rich is clear: Watch out — you could get poor! What do you think? E-mail me at Dandordan@aol.com

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Irene Aldridge: How to Invest in Exchange-Traded Funds

October 8, 2010

Adapted from The Quant Investor’s Almanac 2011: A Roadmap for Investing (Wiley) by Irene Aldridge and Steven Krawciw Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have garnered quite a bit of attention lately. Some have fingered ETFs as the cause of the May 6, 2010 crash of the U.S. equity markets; others find that ETFs are displacing conventional securities, defeating the original purpose of the stock markets: to help businesses raise capital from investors. Yet, ETFs remain widely popular: many institutional and individual investors alike hold one or several ETFs for both long and short periods of time. The latest research, however, shows that ETFs are hardly without risks. This article explores the principles behind these funds and outlines pitfalls investors should avoid. The science of ETFs is based on the theory of portfolio diversification that was developed in the 1950s. The theory says that if the investors group together different securities that are little or negatively correlated with one another, the resulting portfolio will carry less risk than each individual security. Correlation is a measure of how closely changes in prices, or returns, of any two securities move together over time. If any two stocks rise and fall in tandem, their returns show strong positive correlation. If any two stocks consistently move in opposite directions relative to each other (one stock rises whenever another stock falls), the returns of these stocks exhibit strong negative correlation. If prices of two stocks move independently from one another, their correlation is said to be small or near zero, resulting in a phenomenon known as “portfolio diversification.” Portfolio diversification is often simplified as spreading one’s nest eggs among several baskets. Should a stock in one basket drop (and crack), eggs in another basket will stay whole, providing the baskets are negatively correlated or uncorrelated. If both baskets move in tandem, both will drop at the same time, destroying all of the eggs. Thus, diversification among several negatively correlated or uncorrelated baskets reduces the risk of the overall investment. Many passive mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been developed to take advantage of this diversification principle. For the price of one share of a single stock, passive mutual funds and ETFs claim to provide investors reduced investment risk through diversification. Yet, here is the catch. Stock return correlations are typically estimated by observing the behavior of selected stocks every day over a finite period of time, such as a year or a month. Correlations, however, change over time. In particular, when equity markets gradually rise, some stocks rise while others do not. Yet, when equity markets crash, most of the stocks fall together. That is, when equity markets crash, correlations of all stock returns increase (become more positive), reducing portfolio diversification to shambles, i.e., crashing all the investment eggs in all the baskets at the same time. As a result, during periods of market crashes, mutual funds and ETFs become particularly risky investments, often much riskier than the underlying individual stocks. A natural “crash” trading strategy arises: When markets crash, sell mutual funds and ETFs and buy individual stocks with strong fundamental values. Such a strategy can be considered a fundamentals-based concentration strategy: Decrease portfolio diversification, i.e., decrease holdings of indexes and ETFs and increase holdings of individual stocks during the crash times when the benefits of diversification are limited. As an example, let’s consider the price behavior of SPY, an ETF tracking the S&P 500, and a couple of its randomly selected long-time constituents, 3M Company (MMM) and Abbott Laboratories (ABT). Following each extreme negative day in SPY during 2007-2009, SPY rose slightly, yet both MMM and ABT rose more. Following each extreme positive day in SPY during 2007-2009, SPY fell on average, yet MMM and ABT did not clearly follow suit: MMM fell less than SPY, and ABT fell more. The same behavior accompanies other constituents of the S&P 500 as documented in Aldridge and Krawciw (2010), paving the way for a concentration strategy following dramatic negative events in equity markets. Diversification of stocks works only when correlations are low. When correlations are high, concentration becomes a better strategy.

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Japanese Stocks rose sharply

October 6, 2010

Japanese Stocks rose sharply

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Japanese Stocks rose sharply

October 6, 2010

Japanese Stocks rose sharply

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Japanese Stocks rose sharply

October 6, 2010

Japanese Stocks rose sharply

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Japanese Stocks rose sharply

October 6, 2010

Japanese Stocks rose sharply

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Euro Stocks rally at mid-day

September 17, 2010

Euro Stocks rally at mid-day

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Richard Barrington: Safe Harbor: From Money Market Accounts to Municipal Bonds

September 16, 2010

A harsh dose of stock market volatility in May 2010 sent many investors running for the exit. or those who have chosen to pull back on their stock allocations, the next question is where to put the money until the storm blows over. Four Alternatives to Stocks Whether a period of market volatility is a wise time to sell stocks is another discussion entirely, having to do with your asset allocation strategy. But for investors who have already decided to seek safe harbor from the stock market’s wild ride, here are four popular alternatives — and what you should know about their risk and returns. Bonds. The first thing you have to do is make the distinction between corporate, municipal, and government bonds. If you don’t like stocks, it would be hard to make the case for corporate bonds. As for municipal bonds, given the poor fiscal condition of many municipalities, you may find yourself running headlong into one of the same risks — a debt crisis — that has been plaguing the stock market. US Treasury bonds offer security over the long haul, but prices may vary between now and their maturity dates. Also, fixed-coupon Treasury bonds may expose you to inflation risk. Gold, oil, and other commodities. Keep in mind that commodities are alternatives to stocks, but that doesn’t make them any safer. Also, many commodities are economically sensitive, so you may still be exposed to some of the same risks you were when in stocks. Certificates of deposit. CD rates can be higher than savings account rates or money market rates if you stretch out the maturity dates, but committing to a CD term could expose you to inflation risk. That is, if prices rise when your money is in a CD, you’ll be losing ground to inflation. Also, a longer-term CD may limit your flexibility for getting back into the stock market if you identify a hot buy opportunity. Savings or money market accounts. Savings account and money market rates are both on the low side on average, but you can improve your bank rates by shopping around. As long as you stay within FDIC insurance limits, these represent a truly safe harbor, along with just enough flexibility to allow you to make your next move when you want to. The original article can be found at MoneyRates.com.

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European Stocks slide from four-month high on Mid-day 

September 10, 2010

European Stocks slide from four-month high on Mid-day

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ProPublica: Investment Funds Stir Controversey Over For-Profit School Recruiting

July 13, 2010

By Sharona Coutts , ProPublica . Nancy Panico runs a large center for homeless and at-risk youth in Tucson, Ariz. About a year ago, a woman contacted her with some questions about for-profit schools that have tried to recruit homeless youths — a problem that Panico’s shelter had encountered. The woman, Johnette McConnell Early, visited Panico at the center and, a few months later, asked for her signature on a letter [1] alerting the U.S. Department of Education to the issue. Panico and 19 other executives from homeless shelters and service agencies around the country eventually signed the letter, addressed to Secretary of Education Arne Duncan, asserting that “for-profit trade schools and career colleges are systematically preying upon our clients.” The June 17 letter pledged “unequivocal” support to the department’s steps to tighten regulation of the for-profit industry. Some who signed had personal knowledge of aggressive recruiting tactics, but others told ProPublica they had only heard about them secondhand from colleagues and news reports. Early visited with many of the executives, they said, drafted the letter and coordinated the effort to get them to sign. What Early did not tell Panico or several others who signed: She was working for a financial firm that pays her to investigate for-profit schools. “Had I known, I probably wouldn’t have signed on,” Panico said. “I probably would have contacted one of the other people and said, ‘Hey, now that we have all this information, let’s do this ourselves.’ I think it’s sleazy to basically use me and use other executive directors that have a real issue to make a profit for some companies.” For-profit universities have come under increasing scrutiny of regulators and congressional committees who have heard complaints about alleged recruiting abuses (PDF). More recently, attention has turned to the behind-the-scenes influence of hedge funds (PDF) that are also critical of the industry and have sold short, betting that the stock of publicly traded universities will drop in price if, for instance, Congress or the Department of Education cracks down. To cover tuition costs, the schools rely heavily on federal grant and loan programs controlled by Duncan’s agency. In an interview, Early confirmed to ProPublica that an “investment firm is paying for my time” but would not disclose the identity of that firm. When asked whether her client was betting against the for-profit higher education industry, Early said she did not know. “Since I’m not part of their firm, I can’t say what their position is,” Early said. “But clearly an investment firm is not going to look into something unless they’re thinking about whether it’s a good or bad investment.” Last month, the prominent investment fund manager Steven Eisman testified before a Senate education subcommittee hearing on the “emerging risk” posed by increasing federal subsidies to for-profit schools. Eisman is best known for predicting the crash of the subprime mortgage market . He’s become a scathing critic of for-profit colleges and universities, and in his testimony referred to the practice of recruiting at homeless shelters. Eisman predicted that students at these schools will default on $275 billion in government loans over the next 10 years. Less than a week after Eisman’s appearance, Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill., called for congressional action to tighten the rules governing for-profits. Referring to Eisman’s testimony, Durbin said some schools were enticing “low-income, high-risk students” into “mortgaging their futures — not on overpriced homes this time, but on worthless diplomas,” and said Congress must clamp down on the quality of education the schools deliver, and the way the government administers financial aid. Eisman’s testimony was controversial. Advocates of for-profit schools and a government watchdog group criticized the subcommittee, saying Eisman was allowed to present himself as an expert and make self-serving criticisms of an industry in whose failure they believe he has a vested interest. One group, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics , wrote to Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee Chairman Sen. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, to complain that Eisman had a conflict of interest in delivering his testimony. Eisman did not return calls requesting comment. He told the Senate subcommittee he had a stake in the industry, but did not disclose specifics. In an earlier speech , Eisman named five particular companies that he said would suffer if the Education Department adopted regulations tying tuition to the employment their graduates obtain — Apollo Group, the owner of the University of Phoenix; ITT Educational Services; Corinthian Colleges; Education Management Corporation; and The Washington Post Company, which owns Kaplan University. Since April, a nonprofit group associated with another high-profile investor, Manuel P. Asensio, has written five letters criticizing the for-profit education industry and calling for tighter regulation to congressmen and regulators with jurisdiction over the sector. Short sellers have shown a steadily increasing interest in for-profit schools, according to Will Duff Gordon, an analyst at Data Explorers, a company that collects and analyzes data about short-selling. Since April, his company has also seen a spike in short positions in the sector, indicating a strengthening view that the stocks will fall. In general, short sellers place bets that a company’s stock or some other financial instrument will decline in value. “This is not an opportunistic bit of short selling,” Gordon said of for-profit schools. “People have worked out that these companies are overvalued. They’ve put on bigger and bigger short positions as the price keeps going down. And they have been right because the price keeps dropping.” For their part, short sellers claim they are merely bringing to light the fundamental problems of an industry that survives in large part on taxpayer largesse. More than 1,600 for-profit colleges, universities and trade schools received $3.3 billion in Pell grants in the year ending last June, according to Department of Education data. About 950 schools shared some $2.5 billion in federal loans in the same period. Proprietary schools are slated to pocket significantly more this year, thanks to the Obama administration’s increased funding for the need-based Pell grants. Short sellers say they provide a public service by exposing fraud or mismanagement of publicly traded companies. Most academic studies that have examined the issue confirm that short sellers are most often correct in their assessment that particular companies or industries are overvalued, according to William N. Goetzmann, director of the International Center for Finance at the Yale School of Management. But some short sellers appear to be moving beyond assessing particular companies and taking a financial position accordingly. Now, says the Career College Association, some are trying to stage-manage the reporting of negative stories to fuel the impression of a groundswell of anger against the schools. “Certainly there are legitimate critics. I may not agree with them, but they’re not in it to fatten their wallets,” said Harris Miller, president of the CCA, which represents for-profit schools. “But I think that a lot of the activity going on, and with other media reports, is being driven by the short sellers, who are hiring people who are semi-disguising who they are and not being candid with people about their role in trying to drive down the stock price of certain companies.” Early terminated the interview with ProPublica when asked whether the hedge fund knew she had drafted the letter and coordinated the effort to have it cosigned by representatives for homeless shelters. But when informed of Early’s connection to an investment firm, several people who signed the letter said they found the episode disquieting. Two who signed told ProPublica they were under the impression that Early was conducting research for a Bloomberg Businessweek reporter working on a story about for-profit schools enrolling homeless people. Early confirmed in the interview that she “connected” the reporter with several people at homeless shelters. Bloomberg Businessweek in May ran an article under the headline, ” Homeless high school dropouts lured by for-profit colleges .” In a statement, a Bloomberg spokesperson said: “We did not obtain information from anyone working on our behalf. Our story was the product solely of our own reporting.” The PBS investigative news program Frontline posted the letter on its website after it was provided by another short seller, Frontline producer Marrie Campbell told ProPublica. Campbell said she would “absolutely not” have posted the letter had she known the full circumstances of its provenance. It is not unusual for reporters to follow up on tips from hedge funds, financial firms or other sources with an interest in how a story might shape events. ProPublica has interviewed hedge fund managers and their researchers about for-profit colleges and universities to learn about their concerns and get leads. They disclosed they were short on the sector; any information or sources they provided were independently verified and vetted by a reporter. Others who signed the letter said Early told them that she worked for a think tank, or that they believed she was working on a book. Like Panico, they supported the substance of the letter. But one of the signers — Jennifer Brandon, executive director of Community Voicemail in Seattle, Wash. — said she had no direct knowledge of for-profits recruiting homeless people. Early told Neil Donovan, executive director and president of the National Coalition for the Homeless in Washington, D.C., that she worked for a Dallas company that offered advice and private research called J.W. McConnell & Sons, Donovan said. ProPublica contacted state and local officials in Texas who said they could find no record of the firm. Donovan said he was angered to learn of Early’s association with an investment firm. “My next letter will be to Arne Duncan saying that I didn’t know that, and I’m going to ask his inspector general to look into the fact that they received a letter where the source of the letter was misrepresenting themselves,” Donovan said. “I think that’s completely inappropriate and it’s using homeless people as pawns, and that is what our mission is against.” “It makes me feel uncomfortable,” added Larry James, president and CEO of Central Dallas Ministries. “I’m quite certain none of us knew that connection, and that would have given me pause.” Not all those who signed were troubled by Early’s conduct. Jane Burch, CEO of New Beginnings for Women and Children in Tucson, said Early told a staffer that she had “something to do with an investment firm,” and that her organization would never have signed a letter unless they agreed with its contents. “I have no evidence that there is any wrongdoing here,” Burch said. “Why would I not want to see another avenue to have our clients’ rights protected?” Both sides in the debate claim moral ground. The for-profits argue they are performing a social service by making education available to many who have been excluded from traditional four-year colleges; the short sellers claim they are protecting the same groups of people from deceptive marketing techniques and a mountain of debt. A Department of Education spokesperson said the agency remains focused on regulatory matters. Among other things, the department has announced plans to scrap regulations that watered down a ban on schools paying recruiters according to how many new students they brought in. ProPublica intern Joe Kokenge contributed reporting to this story.

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Video: Dorfman Sees Microsoft, EBay Stocks Reaching New Highs: Video

July 7, 2010

July 7 (Bloomberg) — John Dorfman, chairman of Thunderstorm Capital and a columnist for Bloomberg News, discusses the U.S. economy and the outlook for the stocks of Microsoft Corp., EBay Inc., American Eagle Outfitters Inc. and General Dynamics Corp. Dorfman speaks with Betty Liu on Bloomberg Television’s “In the Loop.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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US Dollar, Japanese Yen Advance as Stocks Retreat in Asian Trade

July 7, 2010

US Dollar, Japanese Yen Advance as Stocks Retreat in Asian Trade

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US Dollar, Japanese Yen Advance as Stocks Retreat in Asian Trade

July 7, 2010

US Dollar, Japanese Yen Advance as Stocks Retreat in Asian Trade

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Hilary Kramer: Is Tesla a Buy?

July 2, 2010

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), the first U.S. auto company IPO in 54 years, opened trading Wednesday at over-subscribed and at $17 a share. That would be enough of a victory, considering it was facing a $14-$16 consensus target. When you consider shares gapped up about +40% in their debut, it makes the Tesla IPO even more impressive. Add in the fact that the Dow lost over 250 points to hit a 2010 low, and you can really see that this stock is something special. Prior to the IPO, a lot of investors were talking about it being a bad time for Tesla to go public. I suppose you could still say that now, arguing that the TSLA public offering could have topped $25+ on a more hospitable day. But I’ve never been one to worry about timing when it comes to the stock market. It’s like complaining about the weather. There’s simply no point, because, complain as you may, you aren’t going to change the weather. You just dress accordingly and go on with your life. And in my opinion, Wednesday’s blow-out IPO performance proves Tesla is tailor-made for this kind of overcast environment on Wall Street. This electric vehicle company is a cleantech innovator — a stock I call a “game changer” that has what it takes to succeed despite a particularly volatile environment on Wall Street right now. See: Two other Cleantech Game Chaning Stocks to Buy I’ll admit the enthusiasm may have pushed TSLA up a bit too far too quickly, so I would buy on a dip below $23.50. But for investors who enter below that mark, I expect hefty returns in the months ahead no matter what antics we see from the broader market. Let me be clear, I normally don’t weigh in on small cap IPOs. But I do pride myself on singling out explosive small cap and mid cap innovators that are redefining their industry with a game-changing technology. That’s Tesla to a T. See: 7 Ways to Find Great Cheap Stocks Yes, I’ve read the research. I know Tesla has only sold a little over 1,000 cars thus far (GM sells more cars before lunch on a slow day!), and hasn’t made a penny of profit yet. But that is one of my favorite things about the company. These guys are hell-bent on growth — and this IPO was part of that plan by raising a boatload of cash. If they had simply stopped their research and development after creating their Roadster model, they’d be a successful little niche automaker and they’d probably be profitable custom making these $100,000 machines for an elite group of motorists. But the reason they are bleeding cash (as so many naysayers like to point out) is that they are instead racing forward on their first “mass-production” model, a $50,000 Model S due out late next year. This gives Tesla the potential to revolutionize the automobile marketplace — becoming a competitor of Ford (F) and Toyota (TM) instead of fighting with niche luxury brands like Lotus or Ferrari. The cynics will point to Tesla’s small scale and lack of automotive manufacturing expertise. After all, billionaire braniac Elon Musk had runaway success with PayPal but an internet startup is far less capital intensive than tooling up an automaker. But that lack of a production chain could also be seen as a plus by those who watched GM and Chrysler crippled by deep connections to the UAW or a deep sense of “automotive tradition.” See: The Worst IPOs of the Last Year And even if you doubt Tesla Chairman Elon Musk, there’s Sergey Brin and Larry Page (Google founders), and former EBay President Jeff Skoll steering this stock. If these guys are believers, then so am I! My hunch is that some time in mid-2011, as production on the Model S ramps up, and consumer frenzy reaches a fever pitch, these guys get bought out one of the larger legacy auto-companies who are trying to reinvent themselves. Perhaps it’ll even be Daimler or Toyota doing the buying (or even one of the aggressive new Chinese auto companies), but for certain, the purchase price would be at $75 a share or higher…representing a quick 450% profit in a classic American success story. See: Five Reasons Chrysler is still Doomed But even if I’m wrong about a take over, and these guys succeed in going it alone (and if anyone can do that, it’s Musk & Company), and all the buzz around this stock shows that it’s got a real shot at $40, and a quick 75% profit before year-end. That is why I am recommending all investors take a small stake in Tesla at $23.50 a share or less.

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Hilary Kramer: Is Tesla a Buy?

July 2, 2010

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), the first U.S. auto company IPO in 54 years, opened trading Wednesday at over-subscribed and at $17 a share. That would be enough of a victory, considering it was facing a $14-$16 consensus target. When you consider shares gapped up about +40% in their debut, it makes the Tesla IPO even more impressive. Add in the fact that the Dow lost over 250 points to hit a 2010 low, and you can really see that this stock is something special. Prior to the IPO, a lot of investors were talking about it being a bad time for Tesla to go public. I suppose you could still say that now, arguing that the TSLA public offering could have topped $25+ on a more hospitable day. But I’ve never been one to worry about timing when it comes to the stock market. It’s like complaining about the weather. There’s simply no point, because, complain as you may, you aren’t going to change the weather. You just dress accordingly and go on with your life. And in my opinion, Wednesday’s blow-out IPO performance proves Tesla is tailor-made for this kind of overcast environment on Wall Street. This electric vehicle company is a cleantech innovator — a stock I call a “game changer” that has what it takes to succeed despite a particularly volatile environment on Wall Street right now. See: Two other Cleantech Game Chaning Stocks to Buy I’ll admit the enthusiasm may have pushed TSLA up a bit too far too quickly, so I would buy on a dip below $23.50. But for investors who enter below that mark, I expect hefty returns in the months ahead no matter what antics we see from the broader market. Let me be clear, I normally don’t weigh in on small cap IPOs. But I do pride myself on singling out explosive small cap and mid cap innovators that are redefining their industry with a game-changing technology. That’s Tesla to a T. See: 7 Ways to Find Great Cheap Stocks Yes, I’ve read the research. I know Tesla has only sold a little over 1,000 cars thus far (GM sells more cars before lunch on a slow day!), and hasn’t made a penny of profit yet. But that is one of my favorite things about the company. These guys are hell-bent on growth — and this IPO was part of that plan by raising a boatload of cash. If they had simply stopped their research and development after creating their Roadster model, they’d be a successful little niche automaker and they’d probably be profitable custom making these $100,000 machines for an elite group of motorists. But the reason they are bleeding cash (as so many naysayers like to point out) is that they are instead racing forward on their first “mass-production” model, a $50,000 Model S due out late next year. This gives Tesla the potential to revolutionize the automobile marketplace — becoming a competitor of Ford (F) and Toyota (TM) instead of fighting with niche luxury brands like Lotus or Ferrari. The cynics will point to Tesla’s small scale and lack of automotive manufacturing expertise. After all, billionaire braniac Elon Musk had runaway success with PayPal but an internet startup is far less capital intensive than tooling up an automaker. But that lack of a production chain could also be seen as a plus by those who watched GM and Chrysler crippled by deep connections to the UAW or a deep sense of “automotive tradition.” See: The Worst IPOs of the Last Year And even if you doubt Tesla Chairman Elon Musk, there’s Sergey Brin and Larry Page (Google founders), and former EBay President Jeff Skoll steering this stock. If these guys are believers, then so am I! My hunch is that some time in mid-2011, as production on the Model S ramps up, and consumer frenzy reaches a fever pitch, these guys get bought out one of the larger legacy auto-companies who are trying to reinvent themselves. Perhaps it’ll even be Daimler or Toyota doing the buying (or even one of the aggressive new Chinese auto companies), but for certain, the purchase price would be at $75 a share or higher…representing a quick 450% profit in a classic American success story. See: Five Reasons Chrysler is still Doomed But even if I’m wrong about a take over, and these guys succeed in going it alone (and if anyone can do that, it’s Musk & Company), and all the buzz around this stock shows that it’s got a real shot at $40, and a quick 75% profit before year-end. That is why I am recommending all investors take a small stake in Tesla at $23.50 a share or less.

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US Dollar, Japanese Yen Rise as Stocks Drop on China Growth Fears

June 29, 2010

US Dollar, Japanese Yen Rise as Stocks Drop on China Growth Fears

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Bank Stocks RISE On Financial Reform News – But Rest Of Market Slides

June 25, 2010

NEW YORK — (TIM PARADIS, AP) The stock market fell Friday after a disappointing gross domestic product reading added to investors’ discomfort about the strength of the economic recovery. Financial shares rose on relief that a banking overhaul bill is in hand. The said GDP, the broadest measure of the economy’s health, at a 2.7 percent annual pace in the first quarter, rather than the 3 percent it previously estimated. The report follows a string of weaker-than-expected economic numbers in the past week and raised investors concerns about the recovery. Check out a chart of the S&P 500 (orange) and the KBW Bank Index (blue): Uneasiness about the GDP report tempered investors’ upbeat reaction to the financial regulation bill that lawmakers agreed on early Friday. The bill would regulate banks’ ability to trade in derivatives, but the rules are less strict than investors had feared. Derivatives are complex securities that companies and investors often use to hedge against losses. But some derivatives are purely speculative investments, and some of this type of derivatives have been blamed for contributing heavily to the collapse of the housing market and the 2008 financial crisis. One investor concern was alleviated: A plan that would have had banks paying for the costs of unwinding mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, was not included in the bill that will now go to the House and Senate for final approval. “The bill could have been a lot worse,” said Alan Valdes, vice president at Hilliard Lyons in New York. “It’s a bill we can live with.” That pushed bank stocks higher: U.S. Bancorp rose 2.1 percent, while Bank of America added 1.3 percent. Some of the big Wall Street banks that will see the most changes from the bill also edged higher in part on relief of knowing what is in the legislation and in part because not all parts of the overhaul were as onerous as feared. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. rose 1 percent, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. gained 1.4 percent. In late morning trading, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 42.55, or 0.4 percent, to 10,110.25. The broader Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell 2.49, or 0.2 percent, to 1,071.20, and the Nasdaq composite index fell 4.78, or 0.2 percent, to 2,212.64. Trading was expected to be heavy and volatile because Friday is the day that stocks within the Russell indexes are being added and deleted. That forces investors to buy and sell certain stocks if they have portfolios that follow the indexes. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 3.06, or 0.5 percent, to 636.23. Treasury prices rose, driving down interest rates. The 10-year Treasury note’s yield fell to 3.10 percent from 3.14 percent late Thursday. The euro, which investors have been treating as a measure of confidence in Europe’s ability to resolve its economic problems, was down at $1.2288. Crude oil rose 86 cents to $77.37 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Investors are cautious after the latest economic reports have cast doubt on the strength of the recovery. On Thursday, a disappointing durable goods orders report from the government and downbeat forecasts from analysts raised questions about manufacturing and consumer spending. Investors are waiting to see what news comes out of the G20 meeting being held this weekend in Toronto. The world economy, including Europe’s debt problems, will dominate the talks. President Barack Obama will be among the leaders attending the meeting. U.S. Bancorp rose 47 cents, or 2.1 percent, to $23.08, while Bank of America climbed 19 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $15.21. Goldman Sachs rose $1.38, or 1 percent, to $136.36 and JPMorgan advanced 52 cetns, or 1.4 percent, to $38.55. Four stocks rose for every three that fell on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 260 million shares, compared with 267 million traded at the same point Thursday. The FTSE-100 index in London fell 0.9 percent, while Paris’ CAC-40 index fell 1 percent and Frankfurt’s DAX index lost 0.6 percent. Earlier, the Nikkei 225 index in Tokyo closed down nearly 2 percent.

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Dollar, Yen Decline as Australian PM Resignation Lifts Stocks in Asian Trade

June 24, 2010

Dollar, Yen Decline as Australian PM Resignation Lifts Stocks in Asian Trade

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Global Stocks Rise as S&ampP 500 Fluctuates Gold Climbs to Record

June 18, 2010

By Stephen Kirkland June 18 (Bloomberg) — The MSCI World Index of stocks rose for the ninth day, the longest rally in 11 months, and Spanish bonds rallied on speculation efforts to contain Europe’s debt crisis will succeed. The yen strengthened against the dollar and gold climbed to a record. The world index increased 0.1 percent at 9:57 a.m. in New York. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 0.2 percent to its highest level in five weeks. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fluctuated as the expiration of U.S. futures and options triggered greater price swings. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index climbed 0.4 percent. The yen strengthened 0.3 percent versus the dollar, and gold rose as high as $1,258.25 an ounce. Oil fell a second day. Spain’s 10-year bond yield lost 17 basis points. Spanish banks rallied as European leaders pledged to publish stress tests to boost transparency in the financial industry. Emerging-market equity and bond funds received net inflows in the week to June 16 as concerns over European deficits eased, boosting appetite for higher-yielding assets, EPFR Global data showed. “Sentiment has changed to the positive after investors saw that the European debt crisis hasn’t spiralled out of control,” said Daphne Roth , Singapore-based head of Asian equity research at ABN Amro Private Banking. European Shares About three stocks rose for every two that fell on Europe’s benchmark Stoxx 600 . Banco Santander SA , Spain’s largest lender, rallied 2.5 percent in Madrid while smaller rival Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA climbed 4.4 percent. Spain’s IBEX 35 Index increased 1.2 percent, the most among 18 western European benchmark gauges. The cost of protecting against a debt default by Banco Santander dropped, with credit-default swaps tumbling 16 basis points to 170, according to CMA DataVision. Spain’s 10-year bond yield dropped 17 basis points to 4.6 percent and the premium investors demand to own the debt instead of benchmark German bunds tumbled by 23 basis points to 188 basis points. European Union leaders agreed yesterday to disclose how banks perform on stress tests, seeking to show investors that the financial system can withstand shocks. The decision came after Spanish officials unexpectedly pledged to publish results on individual banks, the first European government to do so. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said broader regional stress tests will be published in the second half of July “at the latest.” Asian Stocks The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.3 percent. Softbank Corp., the exclusive seller of the iPhone in Japan, climbed 2.7 percent in Tokyo as orders for a new model outstripped supply. Newcrest Mining Ltd., Australia’s biggest gold producer gained 1.7 percent in Sydney. Developing-nation stocks rose for a ninth day, the longest stretch of gains in two months. Hungary’s BUX Index climbed for the first time in four days, rising 0.2 percent, after Templeton Asset Management Ltd.’s Mark Mobius said in his blog that the nation’s stocks are attractive. Emerging-equity funds took in $2.5 billion in the past week, the second-largest inflow this year, while emerging-bond funds received $659 million, EPFR said in a statement. The yen gained for a fifth day to 90.77 per dollar, and appreciated 0.5 percent versus euro after the nation’s leaders pledged to reduce public debt. Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan said he would consider an opposition party proposal to raise the consumption tax. The dollar strengthened 0.2 percent to $1.2365 per euro. Default Swaps Credit-default swaps on the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 50 mostly junk-rated European companies dropped 6.3 basis points to a one-month low of 537.3, according to Markit Group Ltd. Copper fell 1.1 percent to $6,375 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, the third consecutive decline. Crude oil slid for a second day, dropping 0.7 percent to $76.29 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. —-With assistance from Paul Armstrong , Matthew Brown , Claudia Carpenter , David Merritt and Michael Patterson in London. Editors: Stephen Kirkland , Michael P. Regan To contact the reporter on this story: Stephen Kirkland in London at skirkland@bloomberg.net ;

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Stocks Climb Worldwide as Spanish Banks Rally Gold Strengthens to Record

June 18, 2010

By Stephen Kirkland June 18 (Bloomberg) — The MSCI World Index of stocks rose for the ninth day, the longest rally in 11 months, and Spanish bonds rallied on speculation efforts to contain Europe’s debt crisis will succeed. The yen strengthened against the dollar and gold climbed to a record. The world index increased 0.1 percent at 9:57 a.m. in New York. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 0.2 percent to its highest level in five weeks. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fluctuated as the expiration of U.S. futures and options triggered greater price swings. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index climbed 0.4 percent. The yen strengthened 0.3 percent versus the dollar, and gold rose as high as $1,258.25 an ounce. Oil fell a second day. Spain’s 10-year bond yield lost 17 basis points. Spanish banks rallied as European leaders pledged to publish stress tests to boost transparency in the financial industry. Emerging-market equity and bond funds received net inflows in the week to June 16 as concerns over European deficits eased, boosting appetite for higher-yielding assets, EPFR Global data showed. “Sentiment has changed to the positive after investors saw that the European debt crisis hasn’t spiralled out of control,” said Daphne Roth , Singapore-based head of Asian equity research at ABN Amro Private Banking. European Shares About three stocks rose for every two that fell on Europe’s benchmark Stoxx 600 . Banco Santander SA , Spain’s largest lender, rallied 2.5 percent in Madrid while smaller rival Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA climbed 4.4 percent. Spain’s IBEX 35 Index increased 1.2 percent, the most among 18 western European benchmark gauges. The cost of protecting against a debt default by Banco Santander dropped, with credit-default swaps tumbling 16 basis points to 170, according to CMA DataVision. Spain’s 10-year bond yield dropped 17 basis points to 4.6 percent and the premium investors demand to own the debt instead of benchmark German bunds tumbled by 23 basis points to 188 basis points. European Union leaders agreed yesterday to disclose how banks perform on stress tests, seeking to show investors that the financial system can withstand shocks. The decision came after Spanish officials unexpectedly pledged to publish results on individual banks, the first European government to do so. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said broader regional stress tests will be published in the second half of July “at the latest.” Asian Stocks The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.3 percent. Softbank Corp., the exclusive seller of the iPhone in Japan, climbed 2.7 percent in Tokyo as orders for a new model outstripped supply. Newcrest Mining Ltd., Australia’s biggest gold producer gained 1.7 percent in Sydney. Developing-nation stocks rose for a ninth day, the longest stretch of gains in two months. Hungary’s BUX Index climbed for the first time in four days, rising 0.2 percent, after Templeton Asset Management Ltd.’s Mark Mobius said in his blog that the nation’s stocks are attractive. Emerging-equity funds took in $2.5 billion in the past week, the second-largest inflow this year, while emerging-bond funds received $659 million, EPFR said in a statement. The yen gained for a fifth day to 90.77 per dollar, and appreciated 0.5 percent versus euro after the nation’s leaders pledged to reduce public debt. Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan said he would consider an opposition party proposal to raise the consumption tax. The dollar strengthened 0.2 percent to $1.2365 per euro. Default Swaps Credit-default swaps on the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 50 mostly junk-rated European companies dropped 6.3 basis points to a one-month low of 537.3, according to Markit Group Ltd. Copper fell 1.1 percent to $6,375 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, the third consecutive decline. Crude oil slid for a second day, dropping 0.7 percent to $76.29 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. —-With assistance from Paul Armstrong , Matthew Brown , Claudia Carpenter , David Merritt and Michael Patterson in London. Editors: Stephen Kirkland , Michael P. Regan To contact the reporter on this story: Stephen Kirkland in London at skirkland@bloomberg.net ;

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Global Stocks Extend 8-Day Gain Euro, Gold, Spanish Bonds Rise

June 17, 2010

By Michael P. Regan and Kelly Bit June 17 (Bloomberg) — Stocks rose, with the MSCI World Index extending its longest advance in 11 months, as a late-day rally in technology shares helped the U.S. market reverse an early drop. The euro gained as a Spanish bond sale eased concern the region’s debt crisis will worsen. Gold rallied. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 0.1 percent to 1,116.04 at 4 p.m. in New York, reclaiming its advance for the year along with the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The MSCI World, a gauge of equities in 24 developed markets, increased 0.2 percent for an eighth straight gain. The euro strengthened 0.6 percent to almost $1.24, while gold futures rose 1.5 percent to $1,248.70 an ounce, approaching a record. Treasuries surged. Apple Inc. climbed to a record and paced the advance in technology shares that helped the S&P 500 recover from a 0.8 percent drop spurred by a lower-than-estimated reading in the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s factory index and an unexpected jump in jobless claims. Spanish bonds rallied as the nation sold $4.3 billion in debt, the maximum set for the auction, bolstering optimism Europe’s crisis is contained. “Although the initial reaction to the claims numbers and the Philadelphia Fed number was a kneejerk negative, a little bit more thoughtful reflection on the numbers led to a more positive conclusion,” said Hugh Johnson, who oversees $1.85 billion as chairman of Albany, New York-based Johnson Illington. “When investors had a chance to digest and assess the news, they should have reached the conclusion that the economy continues to expand, albeit at a slow pace.” Apple Hits Record Apple rallied 1.7 percent to a record price of $271.87. The customer base for the iPhone may top 100 million users next year, with demand for the soon-to-be-released iPhone 4 helping to persuade more buyers to embrace the smartphone, Morgan Stanley said. First Solar Inc. jumped 3.9 percent to lead industrial shares higher after Credit Suisse Group AG advised buying the stock. The S&P 500 tumbled 14 percent from a 19-month high in April through June 7 amid concern Europe’s debt crisis and the worst oil spill in U.S. history will stifle the economic recovery. The index has risen 6.2 percent since and may extend its rebound to 12 percent, said Ralph Acampora, whose career as a technical analyst began in 1966. “The damage in price and the damage in psychology has set us up on a very short-term basis for a good recovery,” Acampora said. Technical analysts view pessimism as a sign that stocks may rise, because it indicates investors have capacity to buy shares after avoiding the market. 200-Day Moving Average The S&P 500 today remained above its 200-day average for a third day after sinking below it for about a month. Tomorrow’s expiration of stock options, coupled with the S&P’s quarterly index rebalancing on the same day, resulted “in massive technical noise today,” said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. in New York. The late-day rally in stocks came after U.S. bond markets largely closed. Treasuries rose, pushing two-year yields to as low as 0.69 percent, after the increase in jobless claims and a drop in consumer prices spurred bets the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates low. The yield on the 10-year note fell 7 basis points, or 0.07 percentage point, to 3.19 percent. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index slid to a 10-month low of 8, less than half the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Initial U.S. jobless claims rose to 472,000 last week, indicating firings remain elevated even as the economy recovers. The index of leading indicators, a gauge of the outlook for growth, climbed 0.4 percent in May, according to the Conference Board. Consumer prices decreased 0.2 percent in May, the government said. ‘Somewhat Concerning’ “The economic numbers are still somewhat concerning,” said Brett Hryb , part of a group that manages $2.6 billion at MFC Global Investment Management in Toronto. “We have a very long-tailed recovery as opposed to a V-shaped bounce back. The gain in Treasuries and gold fall into the flight to safety. Gold is the net beneficiary every time the market is unsure.” General Electric Co., through its finance arm, sold $850 million of bonds backed by credit-card payments, GE’s biggest such sale in nine months, according to a person familiar with the offering. The top-rated securities, maturing in about three years, yield 75 basis points more than the benchmark swap rate, said the person, who declined to be identified because the terms aren’t public. European Stocks The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.2 percent, paring a 0.7 percent rally. Spain sold 3.5 billion euros ($4.3 billion) of 10-year and 30-year bonds at yields lower than the prevailing market rates, attracting bids worth as much as 2.45 times the securities on offer, assuaging concern that it would face difficulty meeting bond repayments. Spain’s gauge of 35 stocks increased 0.7 percent. Spanish bonds rose, with the yield on the 10-year note falling from the highest level in almost two years. The yield dropped 11 basis points to 4.77 percent. The difference in yield, or spread, between German and Spanish 10-year government bonds narrowed 10 basis points to 211 basis points. Spain is trying to convince investors it can cut the euro- region’s third-largest deficit, while propping up the country’s savings banks and lifting the economy out of a two-year slump. Spain, which faces 24.7 billion euros of maturing debt in July, had seen the risk premium on its 10-year bonds rise to a decade high on concern it may need to tap a European rescue fund. Hayward Testifies BP Plc, battling to contain the worst oil spill in U.S. history, rallied 6.7 percent in London then lost 0.4 percent in New York. The shares have tumbled more than 45 percent on both exchanges since the April 20 explosion that triggered the spill. The company’s Chief Executive Officer Tony Hayward was denounced by U.S. lawmakers today for stonewalling as he failed to answer questions about the causes of the spill. BP scrapped dividends and pledged asset sales to meet President Barack Obama ’s demand for a $20 billion fund to help victims. The U.S. Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board will look for the causes of the explosion, Chairman John Bresland said. The euro rose 0.6 percent to $1.2389 and earlier topped $1.24 for the first time in almost three weeks as Spain’s bond sale bolstered confidence in the currency. The dollar weakened against 13 of 16 major currencies, led by a 1.7 percent drop versus the Swiss franc. The Swiss franc approached an all-time high against the euro after the central bank softened its stance on fighting franc gains as deflation risks ease. The Swiss National Bank, which has been buying foreign currencies since March 2009 to counter the threat of deflation, said today that those risks have “largely disappeared.” Emerging Markets, Commodities The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 0.4 percent, climbing for an eighth day in the longest stretch of gains in two months. Benchmark indexes in Turkey, Indonesia, Egypt and Romania climbed at least 0.9 percent. Crude oil fell for the first time this week, slipping 1.1 percent to $76.79 a barrel. Copper futures for September delivery slid 8.95 cents, or 3 percent, to $2.924 a pound on the Comex in New York. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of commodities retreated for the first time in nine days, losing 0.3 percent and snapping its longest streak of gains in three years. To contact the reporters on this story: Michael P. Regan in New York at mregan12@bloomberg.net ; Kelly Bit in New York at kbit@bloomberg.net

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Stocks Worldwide Extend Eight-Day Gain Euro, Gold, Spanish Bonds Advance

June 17, 2010

By Michael P. Regan and Kelly Bit June 17 (Bloomberg) — Stocks rose, with the MSCI World Index extending its longest advance in 11 months, as a late-day rally in technology shares helped the U.S. market reverse an early drop. The euro gained as a Spanish bond sale eased concern the region’s debt crisis will worsen. Gold rallied. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 0.1 percent to 1,116.04 at 4 p.m. in New York, reclaiming its advance for the year along with the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The MSCI World, a gauge of equities in 24 developed markets, increased 0.2 percent for an eighth straight gain. The euro strengthened 0.6 percent to almost $1.24, while gold futures rose 1.5 percent to $1,248.70 an ounce, approaching a record. Treasuries surged. Apple Inc. climbed to a record and paced the advance in technology shares that helped the S&P 500 recover from a 0.8 percent drop spurred by a lower-than-estimated reading in the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s factory index and an unexpected jump in jobless claims. Spanish bonds rallied as the nation sold $4.3 billion in debt, the maximum set for the auction, bolstering optimism Europe’s crisis is contained. “Although the initial reaction to the claims numbers and the Philadelphia Fed number was a kneejerk negative, a little bit more thoughtful reflection on the numbers led to a more positive conclusion,” said Hugh Johnson, who oversees $1.85 billion as chairman of Albany, New York-based Johnson Illington. “When investors had a chance to digest and assess the news, they should have reached the conclusion that the economy continues to expand, albeit at a slow pace.” Apple Hits Record Apple rallied 1.7 percent to a record price of $271.87. The customer base for the iPhone may top 100 million users next year, with demand for the soon-to-be-released iPhone 4 helping to persuade more buyers to embrace the smartphone, Morgan Stanley said. First Solar Inc. jumped 3.9 percent to lead industrial shares higher after Credit Suisse Group AG advised buying the stock. The S&P 500 tumbled 14 percent from a 19-month high in April through June 7 amid concern Europe’s debt crisis and the worst oil spill in U.S. history will stifle the economic recovery. The index has risen 6.2 percent since and may extend its rebound to 12 percent, said Ralph Acampora, whose career as a technical analyst began in 1966. “The damage in price and the damage in psychology has set us up on a very short-term basis for a good recovery,” Acampora said. Technical analysts view pessimism as a sign that stocks may rise, because it indicates investors have capacity to buy shares after avoiding the market. 200-Day Moving Average The S&P 500 today remained above its 200-day average for a third day after sinking below it for about a month. Tomorrow’s expiration of stock options, coupled with the S&P’s quarterly index rebalancing on the same day, resulted “in massive technical noise today,” said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. in New York. The late-day rally in stocks came after U.S. bond markets largely closed. Treasuries rose, pushing two-year yields to as low as 0.69 percent, after the increase in jobless claims and a drop in consumer prices spurred bets the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates low. The yield on the 10-year note fell 7 basis points, or 0.07 percentage point, to 3.19 percent. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index slid to a 10-month low of 8, less than half the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Initial U.S. jobless claims rose to 472,000 last week, indicating firings remain elevated even as the economy recovers. The index of leading indicators, a gauge of the outlook for growth, climbed 0.4 percent in May, according to the Conference Board. Consumer prices decreased 0.2 percent in May, the government said. ‘Somewhat Concerning’ “The economic numbers are still somewhat concerning,” said Brett Hryb , part of a group that manages $2.6 billion at MFC Global Investment Management in Toronto. “We have a very long-tailed recovery as opposed to a V-shaped bounce back. The gain in Treasuries and gold fall into the flight to safety. Gold is the net beneficiary every time the market is unsure.” General Electric Co., through its finance arm, sold $850 million of bonds backed by credit-card payments, GE’s biggest such sale in nine months, according to a person familiar with the offering. The top-rated securities, maturing in about three years, yield 75 basis points more than the benchmark swap rate, said the person, who declined to be identified because the terms aren’t public. European Stocks The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.2 percent, paring a 0.7 percent rally. Spain sold 3.5 billion euros ($4.3 billion) of 10-year and 30-year bonds at yields lower than the prevailing market rates, attracting bids worth as much as 2.45 times the securities on offer, assuaging concern that it would face difficulty meeting bond repayments. Spain’s gauge of 35 stocks increased 0.7 percent. Spanish bonds rose, with the yield on the 10-year note falling from the highest level in almost two years. The yield dropped 11 basis points to 4.77 percent. The difference in yield, or spread, between German and Spanish 10-year government bonds narrowed 10 basis points to 211 basis points. Spain is trying to convince investors it can cut the euro- region’s third-largest deficit, while propping up the country’s savings banks and lifting the economy out of a two-year slump. Spain, which faces 24.7 billion euros of maturing debt in July, had seen the risk premium on its 10-year bonds rise to a decade high on concern it may need to tap a European rescue fund. Hayward Testifies BP Plc, battling to contain the worst oil spill in U.S. history, rallied 6.7 percent in London then lost 0.4 percent in New York. The shares have tumbled more than 45 percent on both exchanges since the April 20 explosion that triggered the spill. The company’s Chief Executive Officer Tony Hayward was denounced by U.S. lawmakers today for stonewalling as he failed to answer questions about the causes of the spill. BP scrapped dividends and pledged asset sales to meet President Barack Obama ’s demand for a $20 billion fund to help victims. The U.S. Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board will look for the causes of the explosion, Chairman John Bresland said. The euro rose 0.6 percent to $1.2389 and earlier topped $1.24 for the first time in almost three weeks as Spain’s bond sale bolstered confidence in the currency. The dollar weakened against 13 of 16 major currencies, led by a 1.7 percent drop versus the Swiss franc. The Swiss franc approached an all-time high against the euro after the central bank softened its stance on fighting franc gains as deflation risks ease. The Swiss National Bank, which has been buying foreign currencies since March 2009 to counter the threat of deflation, said today that those risks have “largely disappeared.” Emerging Markets, Commodities The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 0.4 percent, climbing for an eighth day in the longest stretch of gains in two months. Benchmark indexes in Turkey, Indonesia, Egypt and Romania climbed at least 0.9 percent. Crude oil fell for the first time this week, slipping 1.1 percent to $76.79 a barrel. Copper futures for September delivery slid 8.95 cents, or 3 percent, to $2.924 a pound on the Comex in New York. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of commodities retreated for the first time in nine days, losing 0.3 percent and snapping its longest streak of gains in three years. To contact the reporters on this story: Michael P. Regan in New York at mregan12@bloomberg.net ; Kelly Bit in New York at kbit@bloomberg.net

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Most U.S. Stocks Fall on FedEx Profit Forecast, Decline in Housing Starts

June 16, 2010

By Nikolaj Gammeltoft June 16 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks fluctuated as BP Plc ’s agreement to pay about $20 billion for claims from the Gulf of Mexico oil spill assuaged concern about the company’s future, helping the market recover most of an earlier drop. BP’s U.S. shares pared a loss of as much as 5.8 percent and energy shares in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index turned higher as a person familiar with the talks said BP tentatively agreed to set up a fund to pay damages from the worst oil spill in U.S. history. FedEx Corp. , the largest U.S. air-cargo carrier, slid 2.6 percent as its full-year earnings forecast trailed analyst estimates on higher costs for health care and pensions. The S&P 500 was nearly even at 1,115.20 at 1:24 p.m. in New York. The index advanced as much as 0.2 percent on the news of an agreement between BP and the U.S. government. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 7.56 points, or 0.1 percent, to 10,397.21 after gaining as much as 8.84 points earlier. About four stocks fell for every three that rose on U.S. exchanges. “If anything, it puts hard numbers around quantity,” said Evan Smith , who helps manage $2 billion at U.S. Global Investors Inc., including shares of Anadarko Petroleum Corp., the company that owns a 25 percent stake in BP’s well. “High estimates I’ve seen have been $30 billion or $40 billion and this is less than that. I’d imagine that’s incrementally positive. It’s putting a number around the liability.” U.S. equities slumped earlier after FedEx’s forecast and a drop in housing starts cast doubt on the economic recovery. The S&P 500 rallied 2.4 percent yesterday to 1,115.23, the highest close since May 18. The advance sent the index about 6.5 points above its average level in the past 200 days, a move considered significant by investors who base trading decisions on chart patterns. Recovery After Tumble The index tumbled 14 percent from a 19-month high on April 23 through June 7 as concern grew that Europe’s debt crisis will derail the economic recovery and BP’s leaking well triggered the worst oil spill in U.S. history. The S&P 500 has since rebounded 6.2 percent as concern over European budget deficits eased and investors speculated growth in China and the U.S. will bolster the global recovery. BP dropped 1.1 percent to $31.06, after falling as much as 5.8 percent earlier. The company tentatively agreed to put about $20 billion into a fund to pay damages over a period of time resulting from the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, with claims administered by Kenneth Feinberg , the lawyer who oversaw executive compensation for the government’s financial bailout, people familiar with the talks said. ‘Incrementally Positive’ FedEx fell 2.6 percent to $80.84. The company expects a fiscal 2011 profit of $4.40 to $5 a share. The average estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was a profit of $5.07 a share. “The market is driven by sentiment and what we see now is all a continuum of the problems that exist inside the credit system in particular,” said Liam Dalton , who oversees $1.4 billion as president of Axiom Capital Management in New York. “Expectations for corporate earnings are probably set too high given that we see the economic data is beginning to slow.” Analysts have lifted their average 2010 earnings growth forecasts for the S&P 500 to about 32 percent from 26 percent at the end of March. Home Depot lost 0.7 percent to $32.04. Housing starts fell 10 percent to a 593,000 annual rate last month, the lowest level this year, from a revised 659,000 pace in April that was less than previously estimated, Commerce Department figures showed today. Fannie, Freddie Sink Fannie Mae’s shares tumbled 38 percent to 57 cents and Freddie Mac’s plummeted 42 percent to 70 cents after their regulator told the mortgage-finance companies to delist their shares from the New York Stock Exchange. Fannie’s and Freddie’s common and preferred stock will be quoted on the over-the- Counter Bulletin Board once they’re de-listed from the NYSE, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said in an e-mailed statement. The S&P 500’s Consumer Discretionary Sector Index dropped 0.7 percent for the biggest decline among 10 industry groups in the benchmark index for U.S. equities. General Electric Co. rose 1.1 percent to $15.95 for the biggest gain in the Dow as government data showed industrial production in the U.S. gained 1.2 percent in May, the most since August and beating the median estimate of 0.9 percent based on a survey 82 economists. Priceline.com Inc. advanced the most in the S&P 500, rising 6.3 percent to $197.38 after the second-biggest online travel agency was raised to “buy” from “neutral” at Goldman Sachs. To contact the reporter on this story: Nikolaj Gammeltoft in New York at ngammeltoft@bloomberg.net .

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