By Finbarr Flynn and Takako Taniguchi June 18 (Bloomberg) — Japan’s consumer finance companies face multibillion-dollar losses and an industry shakeout as stricter loan rules that take effect today force them to slow lending, analysts said. Aiful Corp. , Promise Co., Takefuji Corp. and Acom Co., the country’s top four consumer lenders, face losses of 503 billion yen ($5.5 billion) over the next two years, according to estimates from Nomura Holdings Inc. The law caps interest rates at 20 percent and prohibits lending to borrowers with consumer debt equal to a third or more of their annual income. More than 60 percent of Japan’s 3,900 registered lenders are yet to comply with a rule requiring them to sign up with credit information firms , meaning they can’t make new loans. The caps, meant to protect borrowers, mark the final phase of a four-year crackdown on the industry that’s contributed to the closure of thousands of consumer lenders, choking off credit in Asia’s largest economy. “The number of consumer lenders could easily halve,” said Shiro Yoshioka , a Tokyo-based analyst at Japaninvest KK, an independent research firm. “Borrowers with nowhere else to go will end up filing for bankruptcy.” About 1,530 lenders had registered with credit data collectors Japan Credit Information Reference Center Corp. and Credit Information Center Corp. as of June 1, according to the two companies. Ratings Cuts Japan’s parliament passed the consumer credit law in December 2006 following a Supreme Court ruling that lenders had charged excessive interest rates, and gave the companies until today to adapt to the stricter rules. Almost three-quarters of consumer loans carried interest of more than 20 percent in the year ended March 2006, according to Japan’s Financial Services Agency. The crackdown led to a surge in customer claims for interest refunds, triggering billions of dollars in industry losses and a slump in consumer lenders’ shares. Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s have cut credit ratings of Takefuji and Aiful to below investment grade, or junk. Aiful , Japan’s fourth-biggest consumer lender by market capitalization, has tumbled 96 percent in Tokyo trading since Dec. 31, 2006, and the company reported 675 billion yen of losses over the past four fiscal years. The Kyoto-based company skirted bankruptcy in December after 65 creditors agreed to delay repayments on 279.1 billion yen in debt. Model Not ‘Viable’ Shares in Tokyo-based Takefuji lost 94 percent during the period. Takefuji, which has the lowest credit rating from Moody’s among the four biggest consumer lenders, has approved less than 10 percent of loan applications since November and is selling assets to repay debt, according to the company. “Things will only continue to get worse because of the new regulations,” according to Ehsan Syed , a Tokyo-based analyst with Fitch Ratings Ltd. “The business model isn’t viable anymore.” Takefuji is taking “all possible measures to survive,” President Akira Kiyokawa said at a press conference in May. Promise President Ken Kubo last month said this fiscal year will be the company’s “severest,” adding a loss of “several tens of billions of yen” is likely unavoidable. Acom President Shigeyoshi Kinoshita , while forecasting a 26.2 billion yen profit this fiscal year, said May 13, “It’s difficult to predict what effect the loan cap will have on borrowers’ behavior.” Loan Declines The companies’ customers typically take out loans to cover living expenses, with refinancing existing debt cited as the second-most common reason, according to a survey conducted by the Japan Financial Services Association in December. Fifty-three percent of individuals who borrow from the lenders have annual incomes of 3 million yen or less, the survey showed. Half of those borrowers may be unable to get additional loans from consumer finance companies because of the cap that limits debt to a third of annual income, the lobbying group said. Aiful president Yoshitaka Fukuda said May 12 he expects demand for funding from individuals and business operators to continue, though the company may be unable to lend to about half of its existing borrowers. Lawsuits claiming overcharged interest have saddled the industry with more than 4.4 trillion yen in refund charges, according to the association, forcing lenders to close branches and eliminate workers to survive. Costs related to interest refunds will likely total 1.6 trillion yen for Aiful, Takefuji, Acom and Promise over the next five years, Nomura analyst Wataru Ohtsuka said in a May 19 report. Lenders backed by large banking groups such as Promise — 21 percent owned by Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. — and Acom, a unit of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. , have better prospects of weathering new regulations as they benefit from funding and loan guarantees, said Syed. “Without the backing of a large bank, it’s going to be difficult to stay competitive and profitable,” he said. To contact the reporters on this story: Finbarr Flynn in Tokyo at fflynn3@bloomberg.net ; Takako Taniguchi in Tokyo at ttaniguchi4@bloomberg.net