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Huffington Post…

In my 25 years of working with leaders in many walks of life, including business, sports, education, technology, law and medicine, I’ve seen leaders who were absolutely awful, decidedly mediocre, above average, and just a few who were truly exceptional, whom I call Prime Leaders. In a recent blog post, ” 10 Qualities of a Prime Leader ,” I described qualities that I found, without exception, in those outstanding leaders. In this post I’m going to describe some more specific attributes that make great leaders great. Prime Leaders see and act on the world in ways that set them apart from others in the business world. Prime Leaders: See opportunity where others see obstacles; See solutions where others see problems; Have confidence when others have doubts; Have resolve when others waver; Are disciplined when others are lax; Stay calm when others panic; Have hope when others lose faith; And, ultimately, see possibility where others see none. Prime Leaders also behave in a way that clearly demonstrates their leadership capabilities. First, they affirm their leadership by making clear who was in charge, what messages will be communicated, and their commitment to those messages. At the same time, they are open to others’ ideas and are willing to adapt when presented with a compelling reason to do so. Second, Prime Leaders set the psychology of their organization, ensuring that it is positive, proactive and focused. Third, they actively create a culture of integrity, openness and determination that permeates throughout their company. Prime Leaders inspire others to aim high by convincing them that they can take control of their careers and achieve their professional goals. They convince their teams that what seems inconceivable or insurmountable can become a reality; in other words, if Prime Leaders can move mountains, so can others. The messages of possibility and personal empowerment from Prime Leaders motivate employees to take their performances and productivity to new levels and propel their companies to new heights. Prime Leaders demonstrate that a group of individuals with a shared vision can coalesce into a formidable force. Their lives and their words can inspire people to achieve seemingly impossible goals. But, despite what many people think, inspiration is not the greatest gift of Prime Leaders. Their real strengths are not only to inspire, but also to inform and transform. Prime Leaders give people the information and tools they need to focus and direct their inspiration. And then they transform that inspiration and information into action that produces tangible results. A Prime Leader’s confident, calm and commanding presence in these difficult times can inspire trust that they have the company’s — and its employees’ — best interests at heart. This style of corporate leadership that is authoritative yet empathic and trustworthy can reduce the flames of conflict and encourage those with different ideas to be open to others’ viewpoints and be willing to find compromise for the good of the individual and the company. Prime Leaders’ noted respect for diverse viewpoints and willingness to listen to others can also encourage “buy-in” from those less inclined to do so. Perhaps the greatest challenge for any business leader is to forge a sense of unity, where perhaps others have tried and failed, in a corporate culture that can have many divergent views and factions. Can they inspire, inform, and transform those who have fundamental disagreements with them? To do so, they must to marshal all of their leadership skills. In this time of crisis, their oratory gifts can inspire employees to set aside small concerns and work together to overcome the current marketplace challenges. This ability involves framing divisive issues in terms that transcend specific ideologies and focus on larger universal themes. The ability to inspire employees, rally them around a shared cause, demonstrate respect for all perspectives and find common ground is an essential skill for providing leadership to a successful company. In the current business climate in which we are seeing even the best-run companies struggle under the weight of the still-fresh global economic crisis, there are profound lessons to be learned from studying Prime Leader capabilities. By applying these skills and strategies to your work, you can create your own Prime Leadership experience that can help you and your company to achieve its goals. Sign up for Dr. Jim Taylor’s “Prime Business Alert!” e-newsletter here .

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Dr. Jim Taylor: How You Can Be A Transformative Leader

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Huffington Post…

What passes for top-notch financial journalism these days is an in depth report in the New York Times about why Goldman Sachs, the most successful of all Wall Street firms, is so modest. Amid billions of dollars in profits, a rising share price, the big Wall Street firm doesn’t like to take full credit for its success. The Times seems to think the Goldman brass, led by CEO Lloyd Blankfein, is being too modest mainly because the firm is afraid to flaunt its brilliance at making money during a time of economic hardship. The writer implores Blankfein & Co. to remember that making money is good for shareholders and taxpayers, and thus they should “take a bow. Don’t hide behind the curtain” and starting telling the world how great they really are. Far be it for me to give my “friends” at Goldman advice (we’re so friendly that Blankfein once described me as a “thug”). but the last thing Goldman should be doing right now is taking a bow and telling the world it’s a great firm, because when it comes down to it, Goldman isn’t really a great firm. What is it then? Well, in the words of a drinking buddy who is a frequent consumer of financial news, “Goldman is like the tallest midget in the room.” For the record, I’m not and never have been in the Goldman is the root-of-all-evil-camp, though I’ve gone my rounds with some of the senior people there, including its top flack, Lucas van Praag, who recently tried to deny my story on the Fox Business Network several weeks ago that the last two years of regulatory and media scrutiny into how the firm has made money, often by screwing its clients, has left Blankfein so tired and exhausted that friends say he now appears ready to leave at the end of the year. It baffles me as to how van Praag can deny someone’s impression from a private conversation (his denial in the Times follow-up story was less forceful, it should be noted). But Goldman has done dumber things, including telling the world that the firm didn’t need a bailout during the dark days of the financial crisis in late 2008, all of which gets me back to the reason the firm should remain as modest as possible: Its status as a midget, albeit the largest one on Wall Street. As much as the nation’s big banks want you to think that they’re the heart of our free market system, they’re not. In fact they never have been. For decades they’ve been feasting off of subsidies and mini-bailouts granted to them by the Fed and the Treasury, often from government bureaucrats who have worked on Wall Street and return there once their “public service” is complete. The hundreds of billions in cash and guarantees handed the banks in 2008 was just the latest, albeit the largest of the bailouts and subsidies the big banks have received over the years. In other words the banks may be big in size and “too big to fail” as far as the government is concerned, but in terms of innovators and creators of wealth, they’re actually quite small, because unlike the guy who does your laundry or owns your favorite restaurant, they couldn’t and didn’t survive on their own. Standing the tallest among these little men is Goldman, the firm most adept at exploiting the corrupt system that puts the government in bed with the big banks. Just today, Goldman announced that it earned $1.64 billion in the first quarter of 2011 even after repaying Warren Buffett the $5 billion he lent them in 2008 when the firm was teetering with the rest of Wall Street. Seems like a pretty amazing feat until you consider how Goldman earned all that cash. Low interest rates from the Fed over the past two-plus years means Goldman can basically borrow at next to nothing to place its market bets. Those bets, it turns out, really aren’t bets at all. Firms like Goldman began buying depressed mortgage bonds in 2009 because they knew prices would rise. How did they know something like that? The Fed instituted a program to buy these bonds in the open market as a way to support the housing market. Like most things tried by the Obama administration to jump-start the economy, the plan didn’t work for Main Street. But not long after the buy-back program commenced, Wall Street — and Goldman in particular — began announcing record profits and bonuses to its bankers and traders. All of which transpired as Blankfein and his team tried to convince the world that Goldman really didn’t need all that bailout money in late 2008 and that they accepted the $10 billion in cash from then Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson because they were forced to do so by a government more worried about the health of entire financial system than the financial condition of Goldman Sachs. Sounds like a very modest gesture until you calculate how the taxpayer bailout of the giant insurer AIG was in actuality a back-door bailout of Goldman Sachs . Just before Paulson signed over the $10 billion bailout check, AIG handed Goldman a check for $13 billion a direct result of the Fed’s bailout of the insurance company. The money was for “collateral payments” AIG owed Goldman, that once the bailouts commenced, became collateral payments owed to Goldman by the US taxpayer. In other words, the day the Fed decided to make good on all of AIG commitments — 100 cents on the dollar for contracts banks like Goldman held to insure their portfolio of risky debt — it also bailed out Goldman. Without the taxpayer bailout of AIG, those Goldman’s shareholders that the Times cares so much about, would have been without a $13 billion cushion during the darkest days of the 2008 financial crisis. More than that, they would have been forced to take losses on the firm’s portfolio of toxic debt. So much for Goldman’s modesty in the face of such greatness. As all this came to light back in late 2009, I wrote a column here on HuffPost saying Blankfein should just resign and save the world the trouble of holding him accountable for explaining why Goldman is such a large midget. Now that would have been the modest thing to do.

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Charles Gasparino: Goldman Sachs, the Tallest Midget in the Room

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Miles Mogulescu: Wisconsin Is Ground Zero in America’s New Uprising Against the Corporate Oligarchy

February 18, 2011

About 30 years ago, shortly after finishing college, I produced and co-directed an Academy Award-nominated documentary called Union Maids about three courageous women who helped organize labor unions in 1930′s-’40s Chicago. It showed how unions were the product of struggle, organization, mass protests, and sometimes jail and beatings. I believed then, and I still believe now, that organized labor is the middle class’s best defense against an organized corporate oligarchy that has waged a one-sided 30-year long class war against the American middle class. That’s why I’m not surprised that the first stirrings of American resistance to the corporate oligarchy since Wall Street greed and malfeasance brought the American and world economy to its knees in 2008 are coming from the organized labor, centered today in the capital of Wisconsin, a state with one of the longest progressive traditions in America. And it’s why I’m not surprised that some of the first acts of newly minted right-wing Republican Governors are to try to destroy organized labor. When foreign dictators take power some of their first actions usually include either breaking unions or turning them into puppets of the state. And unions, like Solidarity in Poland, are often the first line of resistance that help bring down dictatorships. In Egypt, it was internet-savvy young professionals who helped initiate and organize the mass street protests against the Mubarak dictatorship. But the Egyptian army finally forced Mubarak out when labor unions also began to strike — particularly unions in the Suez Canal that control access to Egypt’s most valuable asset — thus threatening the economic interests of top army officers who own key sectors of the Egyptian economy. Remember that one of Ronald Reagan’s first acts as President was to break the air traffic controllers union. It was one of the first shots across the bow in a 30-year long war by America’s corporate oligarchy to transfer wealth from the working and middle classes to the rich and to deregulate the economy in order to increase the wealth and power power of the corporate and financial elite. As Jacob Hacker and Paul Pierson point out in their brilliant and essential new book, “Winner Take All Politics” , the share of income earned by the top 1% increased from 9% to 23.5% between 1974-2007 (the last year of available data). The share of the top 0.1% (the richest one in a thousand households) who collectively rake in more than $1 trillion a year, grew from 2.7% to 12.3%, a fourfold increase. From 1979-2007, the top 1%–the richest 1 in 100 households, received 36% of gains in household income and from 2001-2006, the heart of the Bush years, it was a startling 53%. “Even more striking, the top 0.1% — one out of every thousand households — received over 20 percent of all after-tax income gains between 1979 and 2005, compared with 13.5 percent enjoyed by the bottom 60 percent of households. If the total income growth of those years were a pie, in other words, the slice enjoyed by the roughly 300,000 people in the top tenth of 1 percent would be half again as large as the slice enjoyed by the roughly 180 million in the bottom 60 percent. Little wonder that the share of Americans who see the United States as divided between the ‘haves” and the ‘have nots’ has risen sharply over the past two decades — although…the economic winners are more accurately portrayed as the ‘have it alls,’ so concentrated have the gains been at the very, very top.” Equally important, Hacker and Pierson show how this staggering growth in the income of a tiny elite accompanied by a stagnation in the income of the majority of the middle class is not the inevitable result of economic markets. It’s result of a series of political decisions by corporate funded politicians to deregulate the economy while bankrupting government through tax cuts and ever less progressive taxation. This one-sided class war by the corporate oligarchy against the middle and working class has, until now, been met by remarkably little resistance from the latter. The progressive movement, such as there is one, has been primarily directed at electing Democrats who too often disappoint it by deregulating financial markets and passing “free” trade bills that reduce American jobs (Clinton) or appointing the same Wall Street friendly economic advisors who helped create the Great Recession and cutting deals with corporate special interests to pass inadequate health care and financial reforms (Obama). There’s been little of the mass progressive movements of the past which FDR said were necessary to “make him” (and other politicians) pass reforms like those of the New Deal. But perhaps enough is finally enough. By their extremism, right-wing Republicans may have woken a sleeping giant in organized labor that is just beginning to show its power in the streets of Wisconsin. It may be the beginning of a new mass movement of the middle and working class — both unionized and non-unionized — to take power back from organized corporate oligarchs and to restore a measure of social and economic equality to the nation. Just as what started Tunisia and Egypt is now spreading to Bahrain, Yemen and Libya, what started in Wisconsin may spread to Ohio, Illinois, New Jersey, California, and across the country. That’s why everyone who still believes in the American dream that your children can have a better life than you do should do everything they can to support the workers in Wisconsin. And that’s why it’s so vital that the union members in Wisconsin win their fight to keep their democratic rights to collectively bargain with their employers. Last week we were all Egyptians. This week we are all Wisconsin Badgers. On Wisconsin! On America!

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Michael Pento: Geithner’s Failed Makeover

February 18, 2011

To counter the increasing demands that government reduce its micromanagement of the economy, last week the Obama Administration offered a fig leaf in the form of a white paper entitled “Reforming America’s Housing Finance Market.” In addition to marking the official end of the Bush era “ownership society,” where increasing the level of home ownership was a national priority, the document contains a recommended regulatory overhaul of the Federal Housing Authority (FHA) as well as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (together known as Government Sponsored Enterprises “GSE’s”), that intends to bring the share of government owned home loans from the current 95% to 40% over the next 5-7 years. In the report, the Obama Administration makes the important admission that government interference in housing had dangerously distorted the market. And, while the goal of reducing the government’s footprint in the housing market is certainly laudable, the reform plan is not only too little too late, but fails miserably to address the nucleus of the problem. Even if all the recommendations are adopted, the government would actually extend its explicit guarantees to bail out failing lenders. Most importantly, the proposal completely overlooks the most significant government distortion of the housing market: the Federal Reserve’s manipulation of interest rates. Thus, this plan will insure that government’s role in the mortgage market will likely expand in the years ahead. Banks are in the business of borrowing on the short end of the yield curve and lending on the long end. Since interest rates are generally lower for shorter time durations, banks make profits by capturing the spread. But if the gap between long term and short term rates narrow, or sometimes vanish completely, banks have a much harder time operating. Rapid and dramatic changes in interest rates also expose banks to money losing risks. In a free market, whenever the supply of savings contracts the cost of money tends to increase. Those rising interest rates curb the demand for borrowing and increase the propensity to save. Conversely, increased savings rates lower the price of money, thereby encouraging more borrowing. Consequently, in a free economy market forces tend to stabilize interest rate volatility. However in the United States interest rates are anything but free. When interest rates are set by a few people behind closed doors, as they are by the Federal Reserve, massive distortions can occur in the supply demand metric. For example, the S&L crisis of the late 80′s and early 90′s was brought about by the loose monetary policy of the 70′s. Rising interest rates, which were a direct response to rising inflation, soon found S&L’s paying out more on their short-term borrowed funds than they were collecting on their long term assets. The consequences for those imbalances caused by our central bank rendered nearly one thousand banks insolvent. To mitigate this problem, early in the last decade banks began turning more and more to securitization as a way to unload the mortgages on their books by packaging and selling loans to outside investors. Not only does securitization bring in fees and reduce banks’ risk exposure but it also sucks in more capital to the real estate market, while increasing financial sector profits. It’s no wonder that the securitization market grew to over $10 trillion in the U.S. before the credit crisis of 2008. On paper this was a good solution to the problem, but additional government involvement in the securitization market threw in a monkey wrench. Given the size and diversity of the investment market in the U.S. and around the world, there was adequate private demand for securitized mortgages. With relatively low risk and more generous yields than government debt, pension funds and other institutional investors bought heavily. However, as the Federal Reserve continued to lower rates and as the government engineered housing boom finally went bust, this private label demand dried up almost completely. The GSEs now provide financing for 9 out of 10 mortgages. Therefore, the real estate market today is virtually 100% distorted and manipulated by government forces. Treasury Secretary Geithner–the President’s main pitch man for the program–touted the proposed solution of a hybrid federal reinsurance plan that would include a standing federal catastrophic reinsurer for private guarantors of mortgage-backed securities. The government has already clearly shown that its erstwhile implicit guarantee is now in fact explicit for GSE debt. That condition would remain intact. However, now government involvement would also morph into an explicit guarantee to reinsure private label mortgages. Therefore, in typical government fashion, the proposed reforms are merely a repackaging of the previous sham. Even if the plan were to be successfully carried out, the GSEs would still account for nearly half of all mortgage financing. Only now the government would also back private insurance for private label MBS with yet another explicit guarantee in case of emergency. Who can doubt that such conditions will inevitably arise? As to how this can ever satisfy the need to remove moral hazard or getting the government out of the housing market is beyond me. In other words, there is no meaningful governmental withdrawal from the market. Most importantly, the plan does nothing to address the Fed’s role in making interest rates much lower and more volatile than they would otherwise be. Unfortunately the housing market will remain in government control for years to come and another real estate crisis will inevitably occur. Michael Pento is the Senior Economist for Euro Pacific Capital

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Richard (RJ) Eskow: Hank Paulson: Ex-Goldman Sachs CEO, Ex-Bush Treasury Secretary, and Ex-actly Right

February 17, 2011

Somebody said that regulators need real power in order to be tough and effective. He said a strong, independent consumer protection agency is needed to help prevent the next financial crisis. And that we should help the millions of “responsible” homeowners hurt by the crash, instead of demonizing them. This guy described Fannie and Freddie’s assets as “bullsh*t capital” — $5.4 trillion of it, with taxpayers on the hook and potential debtors that included China and France. He also said this about the whole notion of privatizing a government activity: “To me, if there’s a guarantee, they should be a (government) utility (rather than a private company) — why should people get wealthy off of a government guarantee?” So who is this socialist — Noam Chomsky? He’s Hank Paulson, former Goldman Sachs CEO and Bush’s Treasury Secretary during the 2008 meltdown. Paulson’s interview with the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission may leave you wishing he was still in Washington. The clarity of his comments highlight the absurdity of those politicians who claim that the FCIC reached a “partisan” conclusion. Here’s a Wall Street powerhouse and GOP stalwart who’s saying the same things — and more. Paulson didn’t just express opinions to the FCIC. He also provided anecdotes that illustrate the real problem with Fannie, Freddie, and the entire “privatize government” movement: When you give government backing to people with private-sector incentives, very bad things happen. So as the media distracts itself (and us) with the power struggle between Democrats and Republicans, a conflict it insists on describes as the “left” versus the “right,” Paulson described problems and their solutions in ways that neither party’s leaders are willing to discuss. Paulson spoke to FCIC staff last April, and an internal memo summarized that conversation: Not enough regulation + no consumer protection = catastrophe Here’s how the memo summarized Paulson’s thoughts, under the heading “Sec. Paulson’s Evaluation of Root Causes of Crisis” (all emphases in these excerpts are mine): Sec. Paulson stated that the root causes of the crisis were housing policy in addition to the lack of regulation . He explained that many mortgages had big regulatory gaps and many mortgages issued in many number of states did not have an adequate regulator. Sec. Paulson recommended including in a regulatory blue print a consumer agency that focuses on consumer protection and a mortgage origination commission that evaluates the training and regulation that goes on a state level and will be able to evaluate the different programs so investors would be informed . [ pdf ] Look at what Paulson’s saying: We need more regulation (“regulatory gaps”) and more regulators. We need a “consumer agency that focuses on consumer protection” (we now have the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau — it was downgraded from an agency to a bureau by the Senate). We need better training and regulation at the state level (banks are now trying to overrule state regulations to escape the consequences of foreclosure fraud). Investors need to be better informed about where there investments are going (Mr. Paulson’s former company is, of course, a major offender in this area). How many of these ideas are being promoted today by either party? And about that “housing policy”: This may sound like the old right-wing theme that it’s over-reaching when government tries to help poor people, but that’s not what he’s saying. As I hear it, he’s saying that many people were encouraged to buy homes who would’ve been better off renting. The problem wasn’t that government was too activist, but that the “ownership society” idea (and other government policies, including taxation) used government to encourage over-borrowing by some homeowners, enriching financial speculators while creating needless risk for borrowers. A lot of innocent homeowners got hurt — and they weren’t getting enough help. Paulson held town hall-style meetings in hard-hit real estate markets like Burbank, Stockton, Orlando, Chicago, and Kansas City. “I was literally sickened in terms of what I saw in terms of what had happened to some people, the terms of the mortgages,” he told the FCIC staff. He added that “lending essentially shut down on the private side, so now we were in a situation where very responsible people who wanted to buy or refinance to prevent losing their homes under very reasonable terms were having difficulty doing so.” Paulson described his own efforts to get loans out to these homeowners, which met with strong resistance from Fannie and Freddie’s badly-incentivized executives. Since Paulson left office, the current Administration’s HAMP program has only helped a few hundred thousand people although an estimated eleven million homes are considered at risk for foreclosure, and HAMP has harmed many others through the “extend and pretend” phenomenon. Meanwhile the House is planning to eviscerate funding for all housing programs in the next budget. Ideological battles diverted Congress from the task at hand. It’s ironic how many politicians who get campaign money from Wall Street banks — banks which continue to collect billions in indirect government assistance — resist anything that might help homeowners, because American families who obtained mortgages from those banks are supposedly “undeserving.” From the FCIC memo: According to Sec. Paulson, the “march to reform” in 2008 was diverted because of “really what were inconsequential battles” in the House over the Hope for Homeowners legislation, which he called a “a flash point” in the debate about on one hand, bailing out irresponsible individuals, and on the other hand inflating the number of individuals it would actually help … the battle over the program delayed GSE regulatory reform from being accomplished. In other words, Representatives were trying so hard to score points by knocking homeowners that they delayed action on the big-picture reforms that were so desperately needed. Significantly, ten Republican on the House Financial Services Committee crossed party lines to join with Democrats in forwarding Hope For Homeowners to the floor of the House, proving once again that common-sense reform needn’t be and shouldn’t be a partisan issue. By privatizing Fannie and Freddie, we created a monster. Intentionally or not, Paulson paints the picture of a monster: A company run by private-sector sharks, backed by government guarantees but unwilling to help the government carry out its policy — and aggressively lobbying to undermine the very principles that led to its creation. From the FCIC memo: “I had been trying to work regulatory reform through Congress, the House was not a problem, the Senate was a big problem” … Sec. Paulson said that he felt it was necessary to get the GSEs on board with reform … “I wanted them [the GSEs] to reiterate in front of the Senators the commitment to raise capital,” Sec. Paulson said. “And also, we had figured out that we were not going to get regulatory reform done if they opposed it. They had a lot of contacts on both sides of aisle, and were enormously effective , and they had different views …” Here’s what Paulson doesn’t say: Like Sallie Mae , the institution created to issue government-backed student loans, Fannie and Freddie were privatized and then went on a lobbying rampage designed to undermine their very own mission in order to further enrich the executives in charge. Paulson ran into roadblocks when he tried to get these “government sponsored enterprises” to collaborate with the government during an emergency. “Regulators were downplaying [the capital situation],” said Paulson. “There was a little bit of regulatory capture going on, I think.” That’s an understatement: He’s referring to $5.4 trillion in loose securities that had the implicit guarantee of the Federal government. $1.7 trillion was held by foreign countries, and Paulson explains how messy it became when he tried to explain this illogical and risky public/private marriage to leaders from countries like China and France. From the memo: Sec. Paulson said that the enterprises had “flimsy capital” and he said that some people referred to it as “bullshit capital,” (the deferred tax asset, for example), and that the regulator had no discretion to use its judgment with respect to the level of capital. Added to that, the country promoted a policy where the companies were chartered by Congress, “try to go around the world and explain to one leader after another what this implicit-not-explicit government guarantee was about. To me, if there’s a guarantee, they should be a utility — why should people get wealthy off of a government guarantee? Regarding those regulators, Paulson’s putting it mildly. Fannie and Freddie’s overseers ” didn’t have the power of a normal safety and soundness regulator,” as he put it, adding: “I don’t want to leave Washington without there being some major attempt to make it better and get a regulator who was more power.” Overall, Paulson paints the picture of runaway enterprises that were designed to fulfill a government mission but structured to do what private corporations do – with the corrupting influence of government guarantees creating a recipe for disaster. The end result was almost inevitable: Overly aggressive and reckless officers, backed by a Board of Directors Paulson described as “cheeky” and uncooperative. Despite this experiences, what’s the most popular recommendation in Washington these days for reforming Fannie and Freddie? Making them even more “privatized.” Somebody really ought to listen to Hank Paulson. In fact, why not put him in charge of the SEC? I know, I know: He’s ex-Goldman. But hey, Joe Kennedy did a damned good job at the SEC under Roosevelt. This guy’s learned a thing or two, and we could use him now. Besides, nobody ever called Hank Paulson a socialist. Richard (RJ) Eskow, a consultant and writer (and former insurance/finance executive), is a Senior Fellow with the Campaign for America’s Future. This post was produced as part of the Curbing Wall Street project. Richard also blogs at A Night Light . He can be reached at “rjeskow@ourfuture.org.” Website: Eskow and Associates

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Ron Ashkenas: Why Integrity Is Never Easy

February 10, 2011

Browse through the mission, vision, or value statements that corporations post on their websites, and you’ll notice that almost every company includes a statement about integrity . And if you Google the following examples, you’ll find that many companies use these stock phrases: “We combine integrity with excellence…” “We act with integrity in all we do.” “We hold honesty and integrity as our guiding principles.” “We are proud of the integrity, sincerity and transparency our employees demonstrate every day.” Morally upright statements, right? But have you ever wondered why they are needed in the first place? After all, integrity should be the basic building block for doing business: Nobody wants to get involved with a company that lies, cheats, and tricks its customers ; nor do people want to work for a company (or a manager) that is dishonest and disingenuous with employees. In other words, integrity should be a given , without the need to trumpet its existence. As one senior executive said to me, “Integrity is a threshold characteristic for our people — if they don’t have it, they aren’t here.” Yet it’s not that simple, for two reasons: First, is the innate human ability to rationalize behavior. For example, if you ask high school students whether or not it is right to cheat, most will say that cheating is wrong. Yet research suggests that as many as 95% of such students admit to having engaged in some form of cheating. Most of the time, this involves a specific incident where the students had to make a choice. In hindsight, the students justify the choice as “not really cheating,” “no big deal,” or something that “everyone else does.” In other words, they rationalize their situational behavior, and this way they can still consider themselves to be honest. The reality is that all of us (and not just students) face integrity-based choices on a regular basis. Do we tell customers about all of the warts on our products? Do we reveal everything to a prospective buyer during due diligence? Is it acceptable to hide certain aspects of our background in a résumé? What’s considered a legitimate expense on a business trip? How much of billable time is really devoted to a client? How honest should I be when giving feedback to my boss or subordinate? None of these situations have clear answers — and no corporate policy can cover every contingency. As a result, no matter what choice we make, we can convince ourselves that it was made with integrity. And that leads to the second reason why integrity is so difficult: Everyone defines integrity differently. Falsifying information to one person might be considered an acceptable business practice to another. This is further exacerbated by differences in culture — for example in some business cultures people are expected to openly do favors for each other, while in other cultures those favors would be considered bribes. The power of rationalization and the difficulties of definition reveal integrity as a subject that is neither easy nor simple. That’s why solely relying on compliance functions, policies, rules, and audits — the integrity police — is usually inadequate. These mechanisms guard against gross and clearly illegal violations of integrity standards, but they do not deal with the integrity choices that we face every day. These choices require personal judgment. In some ways the value statements about integrity are meant to remind us that integrity is not just a corporate responsibility, but a personal one as well. If you are a manager, you can apply these values by setting aside time with your team to share integrity dilemmas and choices and discuss the thinking behind individuals’ decisions. Make sure these meetings take place in a “safe” environment, where people can openly share their thoughts. If you hold these discussions regularly, you’ll gradually get beyond the rationalizations and develop more common definitions of what is acceptable and what is not — which is the essence of an integrity culture. What’s your experience with making integrity more than just a word in your company’s mission statement? Cross-posted from Harvard Business Review

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Ron Ashkenas: Why Integrity Is Never Easy

February 10, 2011

Browse through the mission, vision, or value statements that corporations post on their websites, and you’ll notice that almost every company includes a statement about integrity . And if you Google the following examples, you’ll find that many companies use these stock phrases: “We combine integrity with excellence…” “We act with integrity in all we do.” “We hold honesty and integrity as our guiding principles.” “We are proud of the integrity, sincerity and transparency our employees demonstrate every day.” Morally upright statements, right? But have you ever wondered why they are needed in the first place? After all, integrity should be the basic building block for doing business: Nobody wants to get involved with a company that lies, cheats, and tricks its customers ; nor do people want to work for a company (or a manager) that is dishonest and disingenuous with employees. In other words, integrity should be a given , without the need to trumpet its existence. As one senior executive said to me, “Integrity is a threshold characteristic for our people — if they don’t have it, they aren’t here.” Yet it’s not that simple, for two reasons: First, is the innate human ability to rationalize behavior. For example, if you ask high school students whether or not it is right to cheat, most will say that cheating is wrong. Yet research suggests that as many as 95% of such students admit to having engaged in some form of cheating. Most of the time, this involves a specific incident where the students had to make a choice. In hindsight, the students justify the choice as “not really cheating,” “no big deal,” or something that “everyone else does.” In other words, they rationalize their situational behavior, and this way they can still consider themselves to be honest. The reality is that all of us (and not just students) face integrity-based choices on a regular basis. Do we tell customers about all of the warts on our products? Do we reveal everything to a prospective buyer during due diligence? Is it acceptable to hide certain aspects of our background in a résumé? What’s considered a legitimate expense on a business trip? How much of billable time is really devoted to a client? How honest should I be when giving feedback to my boss or subordinate? None of these situations have clear answers — and no corporate policy can cover every contingency. As a result, no matter what choice we make, we can convince ourselves that it was made with integrity. And that leads to the second reason why integrity is so difficult: Everyone defines integrity differently. Falsifying information to one person might be considered an acceptable business practice to another. This is further exacerbated by differences in culture — for example in some business cultures people are expected to openly do favors for each other, while in other cultures those favors would be considered bribes. The power of rationalization and the difficulties of definition reveal integrity as a subject that is neither easy nor simple. That’s why solely relying on compliance functions, policies, rules, and audits — the integrity police — is usually inadequate. These mechanisms guard against gross and clearly illegal violations of integrity standards, but they do not deal with the integrity choices that we face every day. These choices require personal judgment. In some ways the value statements about integrity are meant to remind us that integrity is not just a corporate responsibility, but a personal one as well. If you are a manager, you can apply these values by setting aside time with your team to share integrity dilemmas and choices and discuss the thinking behind individuals’ decisions. Make sure these meetings take place in a “safe” environment, where people can openly share their thoughts. If you hold these discussions regularly, you’ll gradually get beyond the rationalizations and develop more common definitions of what is acceptable and what is not — which is the essence of an integrity culture. What’s your experience with making integrity more than just a word in your company’s mission statement? Cross-posted from Harvard Business Review

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Dominique Strauss-Kahn: A Stronger Financial Architecture for Tomorrow’s World

February 10, 2011

The international monetary system (IMS) is a topic that encompasses a wide range of issues — reserve currencies, exchange rates, capital flows, and the global financial safety net, to name a few. It is one of the key issues on the G-20′s work agenda for 2011, and a topic that is eliciting lively discussion — for instance the recent, insightful report of the group chaired by Michel Camdessus, called the “Palais-Royal Initiative”. Some are of the view that the current system works well enough. While not perfect, they point to its resilience during the crisis, citing the role of the U.S. dollar served as a safe haven asset. And now that the global recovery is underway, they see little reason to worry about the IMS. In other words, “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”. I take a less sanguine view. Certainly the world did not end in 2008, but mostly because extraordinary international policy cooperation helped avert a far worse outcome. Moreover, the recovery underway today is not the recovery we wanted. It’s certainly a recovery, but it is uneven . It’s a recovery where unemployment is not really going down and there are widening inequalities within countries. And global imbalances are back, with issues that worried us before the crisis — large and volatile capital flows, exchange rate pressures, rapidly growing excess reserves — on the front burner once again. Left unresolved, these problems could even sow the seeds of the next crisis. So, there is good reason to think that reforms to the IMS that help us get to the root of these imbalances could both bolster the recovery and strengthen the system’s ability to prevent future crises. Let me set out three key questions that are guiding the IMF’s work in this area . First, how can we strengthen policy cooperation and reduce volatility? The crisis marked a watershed moment for international policy cooperation — leaders took the actions necessary to overcome domestic and global economic challenges. Now that the worst of the crisis has passed, how can we sustain this cooperation — so that countries adopt policies consistent with less volatile global growth? The G-20′s Mutual Assessment Process has been an important first step towards creating a more permanent framework for global policy cooperation. IMF surveillance is a critical complement to the MAP — and also lies at the core of our mandate. Through this activity, the IMF seeks to identify the country-level policies that can deliver more stable global growth. We have also strengthened Fund surveillance — for example, the early warning and vulnerability exercises . We are now increasing our focus on the impact of countries’ policies across their borders, particularly for the five most systemic economies–for which we have new dedicated “spillover reports” in preparation. At the same time, we are delving deeper into macro-financial linkages. For the world’s 25 most systemic financial systems, Financial Sector Assessment Programs (FSAPs) are becoming mandatory. This tool will facilitate our efforts to catch dangerous build-ups of systemic risk in the financial sector — which is precisely what preceded the recent crisis. Beyond this, we should explore whether even more ambitious changes to our surveillance are needed — and we are conducting a major review to that effect. My second question is: how best to cope with capital flow and exchange rate volatility? Over the past decade, we have witnessed a dramatic increase in the size and volatility of capital flows. Broadly speaking, such flows are beneficial to the receiving economies. But they can also complicate macroeconomic management and threaten financial stability. So, what are the tools? They are many, including macroeconomic adjustment, reserve accumulation, prudential measures and — when all this is put in place and still a country experiences some disruptive inflows — capital controls. Naturally, countries’ responses are driven primarily by domestic considerations. But their actions can have consequences for the rest of the world. Given these spillovers, should we have globally agreed “rules of the road” for managing capital flows? Our members have asked us to look into this question, and we expect to present some concrete ideas in the near future. A related issue is the volatility of exchange rates. The major currencies have fluctuated widely vis-à-vis each other and have not moved consistently in a direction promoting an orderly adjustment of imbalances. Large and persistent deviations of exchange rates from fundamentals can result in significant systemic distortions, which can be particularly problematic for small open economies. Addressing this issue requires setting economic and financial policies that promote global balance and reduce the volatility of capital flows, as I have just discussed. My third and final question: how can we enhance liquidity provision in times of extreme volatility? Since the crisis, we have come a long way in strengthening the global financial safety net. The Fund’s resource base has been increased significantly, and our financing toolkit has been made more flexible, in particular by adding the Flexible Credit Line and the Precautionary Credit Line . But many countries remain to be convinced that the global financial safety net is strong enough to deal with the next crisis — and so the costly accumulation of reserves continues well in excess of precautionary needs. What else can be done? One important avenue is to strengthen partnerships with regional financing arrangements. Another is how to improve the predictability of systemic liquidity provision more generally — as opposed to leaving this task to national central banks. A complementary question is how best to gauge the adequacy of precautionary reserves, and which benchmarks to use. Over time, there may also be a role for the SDR to contribute to a more stable IMS. A paper the IMF is releasing today presents a range of ideas on this topic. But, increasing the role of the SDR would clearly require a major leap in international policy coordination. For this reason, the global reserve asset system will evolve only gradually, along with changes in the global economy, and at a pace that is not disruptive. Let me wrap up. Reform of the IMS is wide-ranging and complex. Global debate is only just starting. But we must all recognize that this is not something academic or abstract. We need concrete ideas. This is linked to achieving the kind of well-balanced and sustainable recovery that the world needs–and it is linked to preventing the next crisis. From iMFdirect blog

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David Isenberg: The Weaknesses of PMSC Self-Regulation

February 8, 2011

Those of you who have followed my writings on this subject know that I am critical of largely industry advocated, self-regulation efforts, such as Codes of Conduct. It is not that such codes are bad, per se. Indeed, they may even, as other observers have pointed out in the past be useful, insofar as they help set global norms that all PMSC actors feel obliged to respect. Rather, the problem I have with self regulation is that in order to make it really work some other things need to go along with it. The paper, ” Regulating War: A Taxonomy in Global Administrative Law ” by Daphné Richemond-Barak of the Interdisciplinary Center, Herzliya, Israel, published last September explains the deficiencies. She examines the regulation of private warfare through the framework of Global Administrative Law (“GAL”). Note that GAL is actually sympathetic to industry efforts. “GAL’s underlying idea is that while global governance operates along the same line as administration in general, the meaning of administration is different in the realm of global governance – it is not necessarily exclusively public; it is not exclusively national, and it tends not to be obligatory.” Indeed, Ms. Richemond-Barak writes, “the potential of self-regulatory mechanisms is apparent from this study and must be noted at the outset.” But she also looks at various regulatory efforts. In regard to the question of whether industry associations in the realm of private security and military outsourcing can appropriately be regarded as exercising regulatory functions, she writes it is too early to classify industry associations as private bodies with regulatory functions. Consider, for example, what she writes about the Code of Conduct of IPOA (renamed ISOA); one of the larger PMSC trade association. Through IPOA’s complaint mechanism, companies as well as individuals may submit a complaint to the association for alleged violations of the association’s code of conduct. This complaint, which may remain anonymous if appropriately specified, must be filed in a set form to the Chief Liaison Officer of the Standards Committee, “who is an employee of IPOA and is not affiliated with any company.” Of course IPOA may not consider complaints against companies that are not members of the association. When responding to a complaint, IPOA Standards Committee follows a Standards Compliance and Oversight Procedure. The Standards Compliance and Oversight Procedure provides that the monitoring/sanctioning will take place in four steps: (1) an administrative panel will look at the complaint and decide whether it is worthy of review; (2) a review panel will hear the complaint which will determine whether a violation of IPOA’s code of conduct has occurred; (3) a compliance panel will suggest and impose remedies and monitor the compliance of the company subject of the complaint; and (4) a disciplinary panel which will provide a final ruling on expulsion. As “IPOA is not a law enforcement or judicial organization,” it “will not attempt to prove the guilt or innocence of a member company in a criminal or civil legal case.” Although a unique three-level enforcement mechanism is contemplated, the only sanction envisaged by the association itself is the expulsion of noncompliant members. Expulsion alone sidesteps true accountability. While the model of industry-led accountability is attractive at the procedural level – it avoids the need for new monitoring/enforcement bodies; cost is borne by individual companies which ought to punish ‘bad actors’; and there are no guarantees of non-repetition – it fails on the substantive level. It would be preferable for IPOA to play a role in reporting violations of international humanitarian and human rights law to relevant authorities, rather than leaving it to the companies. In any event, the expulsion of non-compliant members remains too limited a sanction. As noted above Ms. Richemond-Barak is not unsympathetic to the idea of self-regulation. But while she applauds its achievements in standard-setting she is not blind to its weaknesses. In addition to being disorderly and thus difficult to track, self-regulation often lacks the teeth necessary to attain its full potential. What is lacking, in other words, are the monitoring and – even more so – the sanctioning mechanisms needed to ensure compliance with the standards elaborated voluntarily by and within the industry. … The private military industry currently finds itself between the first and the second stage of this evolution toward self-regulation: it has succeeded in elaborating standards that can be applied industry-wide, but has yet to create robust monitoring mechanisms capable of enforcing these standards. Sanctioning is still at an embryonic stage. Under the vast majority of voluntary regulatory schemes, noncompliant contractors face only the termination of their employment contracts. Non-compliant companies may, theoretically, face expulsion from important industry associations; but such instances have not been documented. Only in rare cases does the self-regulation contemplate any type of real and effective sanctions – let alone the involvement of police or other law-enforcement authorities.

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Richard (RJ) Eskow: Afghanistan’s "Too Big to Fail" Bank Is Failing — Guess Our System Doesn’t Work There, Either

February 2, 2011

The collapse of Afghanistan’s largest bank will seem familiar to Americans, and so will the upcoming reports of its bailout. We’ve heard the story before: Unheeded warnings. Lax (or nonexistent) law enforcement. An American auditor who said nothing as the books imploded. Sloppy, reckless, and greedy lending. Politicians in bed with banks. And a corporate crime wave led by bankers who can break the law with impunity, knowing they won’t be punished even if they’re caught. The Kabul Bank story is a sad inversion of nation-building. It might have provided some moments of black humor for the recession-ravaged middle class, if only Americans and Afghans weren’t paying for it with their lives. We promised to teach the Afghans everything we know about running a modern economy. Apparently we did. Exporting hypocrisy The financial collapse of 2008 discredited an economic philosophy which had dominated both political parties for decades. That philosophy created a toxic cocktail of deregulation, ineffective oversight, concentrated wealth, and incentives to cheat. The end result cost the economy trillions in lost wealth, ongoing hardship for tens of millions of people, and a bailout whose true cost is still being hidden from the public. And what did we learn from all of that? Not very much, judging by the evidence. The list of institutions advising the Afghans includes the US Treasury Department and the Department of Justice — both of whom have, shall we say, underperformed when it comes to regulating banks and prosecuting financial crimes. And the consulting group that was awarded nearly $100 million to help the Afghans develop sound financial practices went bankrupt in the middle of its assignment. That’s right — bankrupt. But the source of our failure in Afghanistan isn’t in the government’s choice of advisors or its failure to manage its developmental efforts properly, as harmful as those things have been. The real problems in Afghanistan are philosophical, not managerial, and they’re the same ones that have plagued us at home: a continued belief in failed economic theories; indifference or hostility toward regulation and regulatory agencies; a too-cozy relationship between banks and politicians; and, worst of all, the willingness to tolerate (and therefore condone) a list of bank crimes that includes fraud, forgery, and laundering drug money. “Thin Tightrope” Cables released by WikiLeaks reveal that U.S. Ambassador Karl Eikenberry considered it necessary to walk a ” thin tightrope ” when working with corrupt officials. The cable indicated that Eikenberry collaborated with an “allegedly corrupt official because he could serve as a “stabilizing… force” (militarily, in this case.) This official’s “illicit (drug) trafficking” was not to be tolerated in the interests of security. That philosophy extended to banking, where the now-failing Kabul Bank and other banks were widely understood to be helping Afghans get illicit drug money out of the country. Kabul Bank is no different from Wells Fargo, either in its willingness to handle drug money or its apparent impunity from the law. As Bloomberg News originally reported, Wells Fargo’s internal screening unit repeatedly turned a blind eye to money laundering on behalf of mass-murdering Mexican drug cartels. Regarding these drug laundering charges, Bloomberg reported that “no big U.S. bank — Wells Fargo included — has ever been indicted. Instead, the Justice Department settles criminal charges by using deferred-prosecution agreements, in which a bank pays a fine and promises not to break the law again.” As Bloomberg explains, “Large banks are protected from indictments by a variant of the too-big-to-fail theory.” In other words, once a bank is big enough to pose a threat to the economy it receives effective immunity for past and future criminal behavior — a license to commit crime. Yet “too big to fail” provisions were removed from last year’s US financial reform law by lawmakers on Capitol Hill whose own favorite investments included Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase. And Afghanistan’s largest bank, a corrupt collaboration between its president and the bank’s principal owners, grew large enough to become a “systemic risk” to the nation’s economy… as our own government stood and watched. Meanwhile, here at home, corporate lawbreakers like Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase are apparently still considered a “stabilizing force.” Too big to fail As the New York Times reported this week: Fraud and mismanagement at Afghanistan’s largest bank have resulted in potential losses of as much as $900 million — three times previous estimates — heightening concerns that the bank could collapse and trigger a broad financial panic in Afghanistan, according to American, European and Afghan officials. The extent of these losses make it clear that keeping the bank afloat — something the government has said it is determined to do — would require large infusions of cash from an already strained budget. The crisis was a long time coming. As the Times reported last September , Afghan President Hamid Kharzai has family ties and a personal financial interest in the bank, and agreed to bring the brother of one of the bank’s principals into the government as his Vice Presidential running mate. (But then, American Administrations from both parties (including the current one) have hired a string of senior bank officials and watched others leave government to join big banks — not as egregious, perhaps, but a clear conflict of interest.) If an institution is allowed to become “too big to fail,” it’s rarely an accident. The corruption has already taken place somewhere along the line. Austerity and Deregulation We’re told that Deloitte, the auditor in place at Kabul Bank, was not specifically tasked with reviewing its accounts. Deloitte apparently acquired the contract when it purchased BearingPoint, the consulting firm that went bankrupt. But unless there are more contracts being awarded than have been widely reported, the original BearingPoint contract (worth a reported $98 million) was designed to help banks “improve economic governance.” There were reports as far back as 2005 that some of the consultants on the project were “subpar” and that US contractors were receiving widespread criticism locally. BearingPoint has promoted a privatization-oriented approach during its richly (and, let’s not forget, publicly ) funded tenure in Afghanistan, as it has in other countries. The firm and its successor unit within Deloitte have done some good work, but remain part of a well-paid consultant nexus that emphasizes the same set of shared values that undermined the US economy. In other words, BearingPoint and like-minded vendors have been faithful in the execution of an austerity-minded philosophy — a philosophy that can sometimes become anti-government in many ways, and whose philosophy of “austerity” rarely extends to its own practitioners. The Afghan Research and Evaluation unit, a group set up by the international aid community in Afghanistan, assessed Afghan aid as follows: “Consistent with the current consensus on development held by the donor community and international financial institutions (IFIs), the privatisation process has gained increased momentum in Afghanistan … Fifty four fully state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have been slated for privatisation as going concerns or through liquidation by the end of 2009.” In BearingPoint’s case, their sympathy for this downsizing-government approach isn’t surprising. Alice Rivlin, the economist best-known for relentlessly advocated Social Security cuts, was a member of the Board and the company’s leading economic figure — before it went bankrupt. They say they weren’t doing the bank’s books. But if they were there to “improve the economic governance” of Kabul Bank, an institution whose misdeeds were well-known and whose implosion could topple the economy, then it’s certainly fair to say that their work has been “subpar.” Toxic Assets A report commissioned by the International Monetary Fund got the problems right. “As of March 2008,” the report noted, “the two largest domestic private banks accounted for almost 50 percent of total banking system assets. The combined loans of these two banks were 70 percent of total commercial bank lending.” The mayor of Kabul was indicted by the Afghan government on corruption charges, but U.S. officials wound his explanation credible: He was arrested by corrupt officials after he exposed their own misdeeds. Specifically, he told officials that he found files for more than 30,000 applicants who paid for “nonexistent plots of land in Kabul.” These toxic assets were part of a larger get-rich-quick schemes for officials who apparently found his investigations inconvenient. The IMF report also included this observation: “Most banks did not attach particular importance to analysis of borrowers’ balance sheets, cash flow, or business plans.” That kind of lax underwriting will be familiar to observers of American lending practices. The report also noted, somewhat laconically, that “banks that lend extensively domestically engage in extra-judicial, non-traditional contract enforcement. ” Extra-judicial? As in illegal? It sounds like we’ve exported foreclosure fraud, too. Do as we say, not as we do The procurement process for USAID projects in Afghanistan seems to be a mess. Sen. McCaskill was surprised to learn that major contractors there were not being asked to file the usual tracking reports . The Obama Administration was criticized for awarding a major contract to a Democratic party donor , and for using the “no-bid” process it has criticized in the election campaign to do it. After Kabul Bank’s impending failure was reported, the US government insisted that the Times update its story to include a quote from a Treasury Department spokesperson saying that “no American taxpayer funds will be used to prop up Kabul Bank.” But that doesn’t have any more credibility than Treasury Department claims that bank bailouts in this country have been fully repaid — a claim that doesn’t count aid funneled through the Federal Reserve, the cash value of low- and zero-interest bank loans, and other taxpayer-funded measures. Ninety percent of Afghanistan’s national budget was financed by foreign countries last year, with the US assuming a significant chunk of the cost. When the Afghans conduct their first bank bailout, under United States supervision, the funds will undoubtedly come from the Afghan treasury. And then funds from ours will help make up the shortfall elsewhere. Yes, corruption among politicians and other officials is a much greater problem there. They’re a drug-based economy whose principal export is poppies. Their country is divided, impoverished, and largely illiterate. But economic behavior is universal. Their bankers are subject to the same “moral hazard” as bankers everywhere: When “too big to fail” banks can gamble with absolute certainty that they’ll be rescued, that’s exactly what they’ll do. When bankers know they can commit crimes go unpunished, they’ll commit crimes. And they won’t stop until people start going to jail — in both countries. “You complete me …” A jargon-laden report from the Congressional Research Service addressed what it called “ROL,” an acronym that stands for the “rule of law,” and concluded: “Helping Afghanistan build its justice sector … suffers from the same difficulties that have complicated all efforts to expand and reform governance in that country: lack of trained human capital; traditional affiliation patterns that undermine the professionalism, neutrality, and impartiality of official institutions; and complications from the broader lack of security and stability in Afghanistan.” In other words, they’re saying that Afghans are too tribal and primitive to do things the American way. But that’s not true. Yes, education and training is needed. But their lack of law enforcement, especially in the financial sector, directly reflects the level of emphasis we’ve placed on it ourselves — in their country and here at home. We’ve lavishly funded privatization efforts and the unrestrained growth of private and morally corrupt banks, while at the same time devaluing the role of regulation and law enforcement. The problem with the Afghans isn’t that they’re not like us. The problem is that we’re too much alike. People everywhere are, pretty much, especially where money’s concerned. So until we change the way we govern, the results are likely to be the same wherever we go. Crimes will still be committed, banks will still fail, and we’ll all keep paying the price for a moral, legal, and economic blindness that keeps leading us off the same cliff over and over again. Richard (RJ) Eskow, a consultant and writer (and former insurance/finance executive), is a Senior Fellow with the Campaign for America’s Future. This post was produced as part of the Curbing Wall Street project. Richard also blogs at A Night Light . He can be reached at “rjeskow@ourfuture.org.” Website: Eskow and Associates

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Dan Dorfman: Lurking Oil Shock Could Wreak Havoc

January 29, 2011

After reading in a local paper that he had died, a very live Mark Twain emphatically denied it, uttering that now famous quote: “The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.” It may be the same thing can be said about our most recent recession, which, given the onset of a peppier economy, is widely believed to have gone the way of the black-and-white TV set. Maybe so, but then again, maybe no because some economic watchers point to a developing trend that suggests another recession is lurking in the wings. Sure, we all know the obvious recessionary dangers, such as the renewed downturn in housing, which will precipitate an accelerated rate of foreclosures, the prospects of a wave of new layoffs by financially-strapped state and local governments and the ongoing, high 9.4 percent jobless rate, which, at best, is expected to show only a minimal improvement this year. None of these, however, fit the bill for the new recession reason being referred to here. This one centers on an emerging risk — the ballooning price of oil — which is rearing its ugly head as a potential new and dangerous economic threat. The facts speak for themselves. According to knowledgeable energy industry trackers, 10 of the past 11 recessions since World War II can be directly linked to oil shocks or sharply higher oil prices. The very same can be said about six of the last seven recessions since 1973. On top of this, I recently read in a Florida newsletter, Strategic Investment, that one energy expert, Steven Kopits, the managing director of Douglas-Westwood LLC, a leading provider of business research and analysis on global energy services sectors, has shown that the U.S. economy reliably sinks into a recession when spending on oil and gasoline exceeds 4 percent of GDP, as it will do with oil at $90 a barrel. Every driver will tell you they’re getting beaten up at the gas pump in the wake of a sharply rising price per barrel of oil (now at around $89), which has more than doubled from its March-April 2009 trading range of about $40. As Oppenheimer & Co.’s well-regarded energy analyst Fadel Gheit explains it to me, every $1/a barrel rise in the price of oil is equivalent to about a $0.2 to $0.3-a gallon hike at the pump. That may not seem like a lot, but it is if you look at it on a broader scale, what with every penny boost at the pump draining an estimated $1.5 billion out of household cash flow. So where are oil prices headed this year following a 2010 close of $91.48? Gheit figures a realistic 2011 range is between $75 and $100 a barrel, but he doesn’t rule out a higher level, say between $90 and $100, due to a weaker dollar, inflation fears, the threat of global disruptions and brisk fund trading in oil, among them hedge and pension funds. He’s quick to note, though, that such price ranges are not supported by supply-demand factors, what with an abundance of available supply, most noteworthy 5 million barrels a day of spare capacity in Saudi Arabia. Moreover, he points out, every one, thanks to research breakthroughs and research and development, is becoming more energy efficient. About 10-15 years ago, he points out, we got 10 to 15 miles a gallon, now we’re getting 25 miles a gallon, and in 5-10 years it’ll probably be double that. In other words, he says, we’re all going to get a bigger bang for the buck. Getting back to the risk of an oil-related recession, a number of economists see it as a real potential danger that could precipitate recessionary pressures. One of them is Madeline Schnapp, the economist at West Coast-based TrimTabs Research, who recently griped to me that it cost $75 to fill up her SUV. In her neck of the woods, she says, the average price of gas has risen from $2.90 to $3.40 a gallon, which she calculates is a $60 million tax on consumption nationally. “We’re talking about an economic hardship,” says. “The more you spend on energy, the less discretionary income.” Although we’re right around that recession-producing $90 a barrel, Kopits, for one, doubts we’ll see a recession at current oil prices, given the current phase of recovery. But he does see the high price as an economic drag by slowing the rehiring of millions unemployed here and reducing consumption. As of now, Kopits thinks the U.S. can tolerate current prices, but he does see a “substantial risk” of a recession should oil rise to the $100-$120 range. Whether such a range could be in the cards is anybody’s guess, but one could certainly view higher prices as probable, given Kopits’ observations that consumption estimates for 2011 are too low by about a half, conspicuously so because of the increased demand he expects from China, an increase in this year’s demand by about two million barrels a day, mostly from emerging nations, and flat overall supply. Against this background, our Energy Information Association expects world demand to climb 1,47 million barrels per day this year to 86.65 million barrels per day, another catalyst for higher prices. An unanswered question is the impact of the riots in Egypt on the price of oil, which has already risen somewhat on that chaotic situation. The longer it lasts the higher the price of oil will go, observes one commodities trader. Kopits sketches a worrisome 2012, noting if the 2012 supply situation looks like 2011′s, then we’ll run out of capacity next year. Historically, he adds, when demand outstrips all supply, that leads to an oil shock, which, in 2012, could be similar, he believes, to the one we experienced in 2008. In July of that year, crude rose to an-all-time high of $147.27 a barrel. If he’s right — and that’s a big if — such an oil shock could be pretty devastating. Among other things, it could well set the stage for a double-dip recession, establish a widespread price of $4 a gallon at the pump, possibly lead to some airline bankruptcies and open the door to a price of triple-digit a-barrel crude, which could be chaotic for corporate earnings, especially those of transportation companies. What do you think? E-mail me at Dandordan@aol.com.

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Girl Scouts Trim Cookie Lineup

January 28, 2011

The new pilot Super Six program, reports the Journal, keeps Thin Mints (yay!), Do-Si-Dos, Trefoils shortbread cookies, Samoas and Tagalongs, Lemon Chalet Cremes. But U-Berry-Munch, All Abouts (shortbread + fudge) and sugar-free chocolate chip cookies? They may go the way of the AMC Gremlin. In other words, good-bye, and will we remember you were ever here?

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Carolyn Ziel: Are You Over-Doing All the Right Things?

January 24, 2011

Why are some entrepreneurs more successful than others? This is a burning question for many over busy, over tired and over struggling entrepreneurs whose energy, drive and motivation have evaporated as they do ‘all the right things’ and yet they aren’t moving forward. Just because you think you’re doing ‘all the right things’ if they aren’t tied to your core mission and passion, they might not be right for you. While certain structures do need to be in place, in this ever-changing business environment you don’t have to follow a cookie cutter model if it’s not for you. At first, it may sound too ‘new age’ to incorporate your own ‘happiness’ into your strategic plan. Yet, according to Daniel Pink, author of DRIVE , “The secret to high performance and satisfaction–at work, at school, and at home–is the deeply human need to direct our own lives, to learn and create new things, and to do better by ourselves and our world.” This is not only a formula for happiness; it’s a formula for success. Unfortunately for so many of us, somewhere along our entrepreneurial journey we become inundated with what we think we should be doing. The goals we set aren’t tied to our passion, but many times to extrinsic motivators like money and we lose motivation, clients and sales. We also lose our happy selves. So what do you do? Re-discover what motivates you. Re-think the original reason you started your business. Re-visit what your strategic plan and include words like happiness, satisfaction and fulfillment in your definition of success. Without intrinsic motivators, chances are against you achieving your goals because you’re likely to burn out along the way! According to Daniel Pink, “Rewards…can transform an interesting task into a drudge. They can turn play into work…by diminishing intrinsic motivation, they can send performance, creativity and even upstanding behavior toppling like dominoes”. Researchers have found that when creative people create for the sheer joy of creation, they are more productive and happier. In addition, their work is of a higher caliber. Another thing you can do is join me on January 28th and 29th in Ontario, CA where I will be attending Lisa Marie Platske’s LEADERSHIP SUCCESS SUMMIT 2011 . Lisa Marie is the award winning CEO of Upside Thinking , an international leadership development company committed to transforming the personal and professional lives of leaders. This year’s summit theme is, “Moving Forward: Prosperity in Changing Times”. Lisa Marie believes that “a lot of people aren’t moving forward, even with money and sales skills…sometimes the only things they need are small steps to attract clients and profitability and …an action plan.” Doing what we love needs to be balanced with structure and finding our own path. How do you balance what you love with what you have to do to run the day to day of your business? Lisa Marie’s answer is to “invest in what you do best and network the rest… otherwise your battery dies”. Lisa Marie ensures that entrepreneurs will leave her conference with tools to move forward. Included in these tools will be the power to reconnect with intrinsic motivators as well as learning how to “network the rest”. “This year’s Leadership Success Summit is all about a path to success that’s a better, simpler, and a more authentic way to create prosperity at every level of your business – and your life. … It all starts with where you are right now…” That doesn’t mean undermining the solid work you’ve done and your current accomplishments. It just means that, in this market, there is a lot of room for creativity. Entrepreneurs need to turn these strategies into real-life actions to move forward. This begins with connection. It might mean reconnecting to what your personal motivators are and then connecting with other entrepreneurs to create strategic partnerships and long term business friendships. Connection, in all aspects, is one of our most valuable assets in today’s marketplace. “The power of motivation and increasing your sphere of influence” is one of Lisa Marie’s sure fire ways of moving forward. She believes, “You have to look at motivation like a car battery and what keeps it moving is that internal piece and there is a big difference between movement and motivation.” Lisa believes that her clarity of vision drives her activities and they are based on what is meaningful for her. In other words, her actions are in alignment with her core mission. We can’t ignore what we love any longer. Science is supporting us now! Drawing on four decades of scientific research on human motivation, Daniel Pink exposes the mismatch between what science knows and what business does–and how that affects every aspect of life. If we spend the majority of our days doing what we love, we will be more successful. We will easily stay motivated as we move forward.

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Ian Fletcher: Stop the Korea Free Trade Agreement!

January 23, 2011

You would think America had learned its lesson from NAFTA, which the Labor Department has estimated cost us 525,000 jobs. But no. President Obama and the Republican leadership are united in pressing for ratification of the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (KORUS-FTA). This is an agreement which the Economic Policy Institute estimates will cost us 159,000 more jobs over the next five years. Yes, you read that correctly. At a time when even the president admits that his number one economic priority is job creation, and has created an entire new commission for that purpose, they’re going ahead with it anyway. It gives the phrase “contradictions of capitalism” a whole new meaning. Make no mistake: we’re in big trouble. The US economy has entirely lost the ability to create jobs in tradable sectors, and the recent downward blip in unemployment was merely the result of more people giving up looking, which causes them to drop out of the statistics. Even the official U.S. International Trade Commission has admitted that KORUS-FTA will cause significant job losses. And not just in low-end industries. The ITC foresees the electronic equipment manufacturing industry, with average wages of $30.38 in 2008, as a major victim. The supposed logic of America swapping junk jobs for high-end jobs simply isn’t the way the economics really works out. Pace free-market mythology, there are actually well-understood reasons for this, if you dig a little into what economists already know. Was this the Obama America voted for in 2008? No. That Obama is at an undisclosed location somewhere. He campaigned against KORUS-FTA during the 2008 campaign. (It was originally negotiated, but not ratified by Congress, by Bush in 2007.) Among other things, that Obama said: I strongly support the inclusion of meaningful, enforceable labor and environmental standards in all trade agreements. As president, I will work to ensure that the U.S. again leads the world in ensuring that consumer products produced across the world are done in a manner that supports workers, not undermines them. Nice words, but none of them are reflected in KORUS-FTA, which contains no serious new provisions on these issues. This agreement is essentially a NAFTA clone. It is, in fact, the biggest trade agreement since NAFTA, and the first since Canada with an industrialized country. This agreement, like NAFTA and the dozen or so other free trade agreements America has signed since NAFTA, is fundamentally an offshoring agreement. It is about making it easier for U.S. companies to move work overseas. The provisions to protect workers and consumers are unenforceable window dressing. Don’t be fooled by the fact that some unions, like the United Auto Workers (UAW), have endorsed the agreement. This is part of a cynical ploy by the White House to split the trade union movement in order to keep the AFL-CIO neutral. The UAW’s out-of-touch leadership is so punch-drunk from the 2008 collapse of the U.S. auto industry that it has lost touch not only with what is good for the American economy as a whole, but with what is good for rank-and-file auto workers. Don’t take my word for it: in the words of Al Benchich, retired president of UAW Local 909: The UAW Administration Caucus is the one-party state that controls the UAW at the International level. Every International officer is a member of the Caucus, and they surround themselves with appointed international reps that unquestioningly do their bidding. No wonder other, more democratic and more intelligent, unions, like Leo Gerard’s United Steelworkers, are criticizing the UAW for its decision to support KORUS-FTA. Interestingly, the UAW’s past record of criticizing KORUS-FTA is more honest than anything they’re doing in a desperate bid to help keep Obama in the White House. For example, here’s what they originally said about this agreement: KORUS-FTA has inadequate protections and enforcement mechanisms to enforce either the spirit or the letter of the law. Precisely . And changes made since then are, as noted, minimal. As an example of how one-sided the treaty is, consider that it now allows — to great rejoicing — America to export 75,000 cars a year to Korea. This translates to a measly 800 jobs. Korea’s exports of cars to the U.S. in 2009, on the other hand? Try 476,833. Furthermore, even if the U.S. does get to sell more cars in Korea, American companies will mostly not be making the steel, tires, and other components that go into them, because the agreement allows cars with 65 percent foreign content to count as “American.” This is just one example of how KORUS-FTA isn’t even as good as the deal the EU just signed with Korea. (The EU got a 55 percent standard on this item.) And remember that the EU and most of its member states, of course, don’t really practice free trade anyway: they practice a covertly managed trade that has kept the EU’s trade balance within pocket change of zero over the last two decades, while America has been running deficits around the $500 billion mark. “Free trade agreement,” in American English, means “free trade agreement.” In other languages, it means “politely codified agreement for managed trade at a low tariff.” The Europeans invented this game — called mercantilism — back when international trade was conducted with sailing ships. South Korea learned it from the Japanese. Uncle Sam (and maybe John Bull and a few others) are the only naïfs who still don’t get it. Despite what the White House and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce are saying, this agreement makes no sense as a strategy to reduce our horrendous trade deficit. America’s trade deficits have a long record of going up , not down, when we sign trade agreements with other nations. Paradoxically, trade agreements even seem to sabotage our own trade with foreign nations: according to an analysis by the group Public Citizen, in recent years our exports to nations we have free-trade agreements with have actually grown at less than half the pace of our exports to nations we don’t have these agreements with. So these agreements don’t hold water as trade-expanding measures. Even leaving aside trade-balance issues, this agreement is a disaster, thanks to something called “investor-state arbitration.” Like NAFTA, it compromises American sovereignty and subjects American democracy to having its own laws overruled by foreign judges as interfering with trade. Under NAFTA to date, over $326 million in damages has been paid out by governments as a result of challenges to natural resource policies, environmental protection, and health and safety measures. There about 80 Korean corporations, with about 270 facilities around the U.S., that would acquire the right to challenge our laws under KORUS-FTA. What kind of problems could this cause? The U.S. was forced in 1996 to weaken Clean Air Act rules on gasoline contaminants in response to a challenge by Venezuela and Brazil. In 1998, we were forced to weaken Endangered Species Act protections for sea turtles thanks to a challenge by India, Malaysia, Pakistan and Thailand concerning the shrimp industry. The EU today endures trade sanctions by the U.S. for not relaxing its ban on hormone-treated beef. In 1996, the WTO ruled against the EU’s Lome Convention, a preferential trading scheme for 71 former European colonies in the Third World. In 2003, the Bush administration sued the EU over its moratorium on genetically modified foods. It gets worse. KORUS-FTA also signs away our right (and Korea’s, too, not that this makes it any better) to a wide range of financial regulations of the kind that might have helped avoid the crisis of 2008. For example, it forfeits our right to limit the size of financial institutions. It forfeits our right to place firewalls between different kinds of financial activities in order to prevent volatility in one market from collapsing another. It prevents us from limiting what financial services financial institutions may offer — Enron Savings & Mortgage, here we come… It bans regulation of derivatives. It ban limits on capital flows designed to tame volatile “hot money.” Why is the U.S. flirting with making such an appalling mistake yet again? Because a) multinational corporations have bought our political system and b) because our government would rather play power politics than keep its own (declining) economic house in order. It is remarkable how stuck we are in the 1950′s, with an invincible economy at home and a Cold War abroad. As a report by the Senate Finance Committee once put it: Throughout most of the postwar era, U.S. trade policy has been the orphan of U.S. foreign policy. Too often the Executive has granted trade concessions to accomplish political objectives. Rather than conducting U.S. international economic relations on sound economic and commercial principles, the executive has set trade and monetary policy in a foreign aid context. An example has been the Executive’s unwillingness to enforce U.S. trade statutes in response to foreign unfair trade practices. Ironically, it may eventually be our own decline that solves our trade problems, by rescuing us from our own arrogance and stupidity. When we finally realize we can’t take our economy for granted, we may finally stop giving away the store in international trade. P.S. There have been huge demonstrations against KORUS-FTA in Seoul, South Korea. If you live in the Bay Area, there’ll be a protest outside Nancy Pelosi’s San Francisco mansion on January 29. Click here for more details.

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William Meers: Is Swiss Banking Still the Way to Go for Private Banking?

January 23, 2011

The complex financial world of Swiss Banking is far too extensive to examine in a brief article such as this one, however it is possible to introduce a few ideas, and render a few misconceptions regarding this misunderstood world redundant. The mere mention of the words ‘Swiss Banking’ often conjures images of James Bond, and Bond Villains, luxurious lifestyles and mafia bosses stepping off private yachts with suitcases full of pristine condition 100 bills ready to be left in an anonymous account with a lengthy number. If this is what springs to mind your vision of Swiss Banking is far removed and detached entirely from reality as, contrary to what Hollywood may tell you, Swiss Banking and the entire world of offshore banking is not a haven for the rich and it is not a place to take your criminal activity. To fully explain what the world of Swiss Banking entails it is necessary to understand certain concepts such as ‘offshore banking’, ‘offshore bank account’, ‘tax haven’ and more relevant terms such as OFC and IFC. I will begin this brief overview by explaining these concepts in the simplest possible way before offering a brief, but balanced, view as to what Swiss Banking actually is, and how it works. Concepts such as offshore bank accounts are often, unreasonably, associated with criminal activity and tax evasion — and tax havens as being the location where this activity takes place and is facilitated. This is an oversimplified gross misrepresentation of the truth in which the offshore banking world actually takes its place as fully integrated in the global economy. An offshore bank account is simply a bank account which is based in a different jurisdiction to where you, as an individual or entity, legally reside. No more — no less. A tax haven is simply a location which has lower tax rates for foreign investors than would be available in their domestic jurisdiction — and entices investment overseas. These definitions are oversimplified for the purpose of facilitating understanding, but to illustrate how complex the issue is, the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) has not been able to produce a definition as to what a tax haven actually is. The idea behind them is that by offering zero or low tax to foreign investors, they can encourage investment from a foreign jurisdiction, which obviously has implications for another country. It may surprise you to learn that every country does this — the USA for example offers several capital gains and investment tax relief benefits that, by traditional definitions, makes it the world’s largest tax haven. The entire concept of a tax haven is, however, over-simplistic and implies that tax evasion or avoidance is the only reason to move investment money to an alternative jurisdiction. Again this is a gross misrepresentation of the reality where there are a number of benefits and investment specialists who work to make an individual or corporation’s investment work for them. The terms OFC (Offshore Financial Center) and IFC (International Financial Center) are becoming more popular and are, perhaps, a more appropriate label for a complex and diverse series of financial services. Why then, would one open an account with a Swiss Bank? The answer depends on one’s individual or corporate circumstances. Swiss Banking offers a wide range of services, but as a rule those who benefit will be on the wealthier side of society, but this is not limited to individuals. Nearly all multinational companies have offices, and are often focused in areas generally considered ‘tax havens’. There is no minimum limit, but as services are often fee and commission based and structures such as trusts require set up and maintenance fees, an individual being required to be worth over U$1 million is common. Businesses are usually only worth moving offshore if profits of U$100,000 are being made annually, while opening an offshore bank account is usually not worthwhile for less than U$100,000. However, for these, not inconsiderable, sums of money there are certain benefits such as tax benefits due to PTRs (Preferential Tax Regimes) in certain cases and in the case of Switzerland if you become a legalized resident. However Ta x Benefits are not the only benefit, and entering the world of Swiss Banking opens you to a world of specialist advisors in the world of asset protection and investment advice. Such advisors dedicate themselves to protecting and helping you to take full advantage of your money — and is generally a fee or commission based service. Swiss financial institutions are famous for their professionalism and loyalty and uphold one of the most unique financial characteristics of Swiss Banking — ‘Banking Secrecy’. The concept of Banking Secrecy originally developed from the 1934 Swiss Bank act and offers a legal support for your financial data and offers you a certain degree of discretion and peace of mind. This leads us to the first paragraph of this article — the image of Swiss Banking. If there is intent of criminal activity, this anonymity is NOT designed to protect those interests. Swiss institutions follow a strict KYC (Know Your Customer) protocol which is used to determine legitimate sources of all funds being invested. If one’s interests are motivated by illegal tax evasion, Swiss banking is not the place for you — you are far more likely to be reported by the Swiss institution involved than be found by your own jurisdiction.

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Anna Lappe: Taking Walmart’s PR Blitz With A Grain Of Salt

January 21, 2011

Walmart made big news yesterday with a press conference alongside the First Lady to announce new company commitments. Most of the mainstream media coverage of the Walmart announcement seemed to buy the company PR that it was taking valiant steps to improve the affordability and health qualities of the food it sells. Among these commitments, Walmart said it will be working with food suppliers to reduce sodium, sugars, and trans fat in certain products by 2015; developing its own seal to help consumers identify healthier products; and addressing hunger by opening Walmart stores in the nation’s “food deserts.” Do these Walmart promises really hold big upsides for health and food insecurity?The Times seemed to think so, running with this headline: “Wal-Mart Shifts Strategy to Promote Healthy Foods.” (Am I crazy or does that read remarkably like the Walmart press release: “Walmart Launches Major Initiative to Make Food Healthier and Healthier Food More Affordable”?) Had The Times been aiming for accuracy it might better have titled the article: “Walmart Launches PR Campaign Promoting Promises to Win the Hearts and Minds of Urban Consumers.” With little critical coverage in the mainstream media, we are left to ponder the impact of these Walmart commitments ourselves. Thankfully, we have the wisdom of experts like Marion Nestle, author of Food Politics and What to Eat, to shed light on these claims. (Check out her take here ). One of Nestle’s most important points is that Walmart’s promise to develop its own front-of-package seal is a clever preemption of work underway at the Institutes of Medicine and FDA to “establish research-based criteria” for such packaging and create regulations for the entire industry, with real oversight. Let’s dig deeper and look carefully at what the company is saying it is committing to doing. Specifically, Wal-Mart is pledging to “reduce sodium by 25 percent, eliminate industrially added trans fats, and reduce added sugars by 10 percent by 2015″ in some of the processed foods that it carries. Impressive? Not so fast. First, consider that it’s not unusual for a can of soup to contain as much as 2,291 mg, or more, of sodium. (For perspective, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommend we consume just 1,500 mg a day). We need to reduce that sodium figure significantly more than 25 percent on many of Walmart products before we dare call them “healthy.” As for trans fats, public health advocates have long been advocating for all food producers to eliminate trans fats across the entire food supply. Finally, a 12 oz. can of Coke, for instance, bought at Walmart–and which the company notoriously pushes at steep discounts –will already contain 39 grams of sugars, the upper limit of what is often suggested as the total daily consumption for non-diabetics. In other words, Walmart’s nutritional commitments are really about making the unhealthy processed food it sells marginally better, at best; at worse, it’s offering the veneer of healthfulness to foods that should be considered bad for us. These nutritional promises are not only weak in their aspirational goals; they’re also non-binding, which means we’ve got to take the company on its word. These nutritional promises are not only weak in their aspirational goals; they’re also non-binding, which means we’ve got to take the company on its word. (The White House’s Sam Kass has stressed that all these proposals can be verified in an “open, transparent” manner. But with Walmart’s history of backroom deals–like its lobbying with other retailers against strict meth laws –I’m dubious). Corporate driven, non-binding promises like these are also the oldest trick in the food industry PR playbook. Just ask Michele Simon author of Appetite for Profit, who details how Pepsi, Kraft, and numerous other food companies have made similar promises and gotten big payback with good press even though they’ve done very little to actually improve the health qualities of their products. These commitments also receive great press at first–note the windfall for Walmart–but there is little accountability over time when the changes are supposed to be made. Now, let’s turn to the Walmart claim that the company wants to move into urban markets, and reduce the costs of some of its food items, to help low-income people access more affordable food. The New York Times writes that “that low-income people, especially those who receive food stamps, face special dietary challenges because eating healthy costs more and healthier food is harder to get in their neighborhoods.” Yet, the Times fails to mention the studies that have found that because of Walmart’s low wages and benefits, its employees rely on food stamps and other social services far more than the typical retail employee. While Walmart is spending a lot of time and money saying they plan to address food insecurity, the company is actually exacerbating its underlying root causes. The Times also mentions that Walmart will help address food deserts, defined as “a dearth of grocery stores selling fresh produce in rural and underserved urban areas,” by building more stores, the paper didn’t quote any community-based activists addressing these so-called food deserts on the ground. Do these community advocates think Walmart is the solution? Are they happy Walmart has set its eyes on Washington DC, New York City, Chicago, and other urban markets? Of those I’ve talked to, all are skeptical of the company’s promises and highly critical of the Walmart model: the anti-worker rights , low-wage, low-benefit way of doing business. We also have plenty of evidence now that when Walmart moves into town, the company puts small businesses out of business and sucks capital out of the community. For every dollar spent at a Walmart, only a small fraction stays to benefit the local economy. We’ve seen enough evidence, too, that the company has a long, dark track record of sex discrimination and workers rights abuses. Let’s be clear, expanding into so-called food deserts is an expansion strategy for Walmart. It’s not a charitable move. Making a big PR splash about improving the health qualities of its food is a smart tactic to deflect attention from the real impact of Walmart on the quality of life for Americans. (Is it a coincidence that this press conference occurred the same week a new study was gaining attention that tracked health and population data and found links between Walmart expansion from 1996 to 2005 and increased rates of obesity?) As far as I’m concerned, as long as the company depresses wages, exploits workers, violates workers rights, and pushes highly processed foods and sodas, Walmart is not only failing to address the problem of food deserts and food insecurity, the company is exacerbating their root causes. Originally published on CivilEats.org Anna Lappé is the author most recently of Diet for a Hot Planet (Bloomsbury USA 2010) and is a fellow of the Glynwood Institute for Sustainable Food and Farming and a former Food and Society Fellow, a program of the Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy.

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Chinese Lender To Buy Stake In U.S. Bank

January 21, 2011

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1398.HK) agreed to acquire a majority stake in the Bank of East Asia’s (0023.HK) U.S. unit, making it the first Chinese lender to buy into a U.S. retail bank, The Wall Street Journal reported on its website on Friday. ICBC and Bank of East Asia were mentioned in a preliminary list of companies that were expected to participate in a contract signing ceremony at the U.S.-China Trade and Economic Cooperation Forum. The U.S. head of Bank of East Asia was not immediately available to comment. The bid by China’s largest lender is likely to be closely scrutinized by U.S. regulators and could draw some political backlash, given the spotty relationship between the two countries and the history of attempts by Chinese companies to enter the U.S. market. But if approved it could pave the way for other Chinese banks to buy into the U.S. market and bring fresh capital to the banking industry which recovering from the financial crisis. “I don’t think this announcement would have been made unless they had been talking to the Fed in advance,” said Chip MacDonald, a banking lawyer at Jones Day, referring to the U.S. Federal Reserve. To approve a deal, the Fed will need to determine that ICBC is subject to comprehensive supervision or regulation on a consolidated basis in its home country. In other words, the Fed would have to recognize the adequacy of the supervision by Chinese banking regulators — something they have not been able to do as late as 2008. “They said (Chinese regulators) were moving in that direction but hadn’t gotten there yet,” MacDonald said. “That will open up the opportunities for other banks in China.” Bank of East Asia’s U.S. subsidiary reported net income of $1.9 million in the quarter ending Sept. 30, according to regulatory data. It had total assets of $717 million and deposits of $425.2 million. Hong Kong-based-Bank of East Asia formed its U.S. subsidiary in August 2001 through the acquisition of Alhambra, California-based Grand National Bank. The U.S. subsidiary has 13 branches in New York and California, according to its website. (Reporting by Paritosh Bansal; Editing by Derek Caney and Matthew Lewis) Copyright 2010 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Robert Reich: The Real Economic Lesson China Could Teach Us

January 19, 2011

Highlighting today’s summit between Chinese President Hu Jintao and President Obama is China’s agreement to buy $45 billion of American exports. The president says this will create more American jobs. That’s not exactly right. It will create more profits for American companies but relatively few new jobs. Nearly half of the deal is for two hundred Boeing aircraft whose parts come from all over the world. The rest involves agricultural commodities that don’t require much U.S. labor because American agribusiness is highly automated, and chemical and high-tech goods that are even less labor-intensive. General Electric and other companies are signing up for deals with China involving energy and aviation manufacturing. But much of this will be done in China. GE’s joint venture with Aviation Industries of China, to develop new integrated avionics systems (which presumably will find their way into Boeing planes) will be based in Shanghai. Here’s the real story. China has a national economic strategy designed to make it, and its people, the economic powerhouse of the future. They’re intent on learning as much as they can from us and then going beyond us (as they already are in solar and electric-battery technologies). They’re pouring money into basic research and education at all levels. In the last 12 years they’ve built twenty universities, each designed to be the equivalent of MIT. Their goal is to make China Number one in power and prestige, and in high-wage jobs. The United States doesn’t have a national economic strategy. Instead, we have global corporations that happen to be headquartered here. Their goal is to maximize profits, wherever they can make the most money. They’ll make things in America for export to China when that’s most profitable; they’ll make it in China and give the Chinese their know-how when that’s the best way to boost the bottom line. They’ll utilize research and development wherever around the world it will deliver the biggest bang for the dollar. Meanwhile, Republicans and deficit hawks are cutting publicly-supported R&D. And cash-starved states are cutting K-12 education, and slashing the budgets of their great public research universities, such as the one I teach at. No contest. And no hyped-up trade deals are going to change this fundamental imbalance. Some say all we need to do is put our currencies in better balance. But even if the Chinese upped the value of the yuan and the US (courtesy of the Fed) reduced the value of the dollar — so everything they bought from us was cheaper and everything we bought from them, far more expensive — they’d still win. We’d have more jobs than now because our exports would be more attractive in world markets, but those jobs would summon fewer goods from around the world. In other words, we’d be poorer. Let’s get real. We’re losing ground. The U.S. labor force is now smaller than it was before the Great Recession began and most American families are worse off. December’s unemployment rate dropped to 9.4 percent from 9.8 percent but almost half the improvement was due to 260,000 people dropping out of the labor force. Average hourly wages grew by three cents in December; weekly wages, by $1.02. And almost all the gains in income occurred at the top. The major assets of rich Americans are financial – whose values have increased as corporate profits have grown. The major assets of the middle-class asset are their homes, whose values continue to drop. The President now says the answer is to help American business. “We can’t succeed unless American businesses succeed,” he said recently. “And I’m going to do everything I can to promote their ability to grow and prosper.” But the prosperity of America’s big businesses has become disconnected from the prosperity of most Americans. Republicans say the answer is to reduce the size and scope of government. But without a government that’s focused on more and better jobs, we’re left with global corporations that don’t give a damn. China is eating our lunch. Why? It has a national economic strategy designed to create more and better jobs. We have global corporations designed to make money for shareholders. Robert Reich is the author of Aftershock: The Next Economy and America’s Future , now in bookstores. This post originally appeared at RobertReich.org .

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Lucy P. Marcus: A Perfect Storm: Global Shifts in Venture Capital and Science Funding

January 18, 2011

A potentially unprecedented change in venture capital and in the funding of the science sector is on the cards as a consequence of today’s economic climate and the austerity measures that are being introduced by many governments around the world, including the G7. Partly a consequence of the global financial crisis, this period of simultaneous change has additional consequences in the manner in which funding in the science sector and venture capital interact with, and affect, one another. These changes have created a perfect storm. The science sector The whole spectrum of sciences, including vitally important areas such as cleantech, life sciences and biotech, and engineering, is facing extreme upheaval, particularly related to the funding of scientific research. In an overall difficult economic situation, cuts by governments in the area of blue-skies research and less funding available from corporates have created an environment in which the funding of science that is not immediately of commercial value is seen as unnecessary, imprudent, and wasteful. At the same time, scientific advancement has been very rapid, and tremendous progress has been made in all areas of science. But this has come at a price, quite literally: scientific research is expensive, it takes place at a very high level of complexity, and some of it is speculative with often long and rarely direct routes from idea to commercialization. The venture capital funding environment Venture capitalists in turn are also facing a difficult economic situation, albeit in a different way than scientists. Their responses have been externally constrained, but are also self-constraining. They are constrained by the limited partners who invest in venture capital funds and have an ever-decreasing appetite for risk. Yet, the funds themselves are also less likely to invest in early-stage scientific ventures, partly because of limited partner’s reluctance to do so, but partly also because venture capitalists may not be fully ready and able to rise to the challenges of untangling the intricacy that investing in scientific ventures in their notional, blue-skies stage of development. The complexity of ideas that underlies current scientific exploration has grown exponentially over the last few years. Informed and prudent investment decisions thus require a new level of sophisticated scientific expertise, and most venture funds are not well equipped to do this. As a consequence, they seek the comfort and greater certainty of later-stage investment that comes with a proven idea and income stream on its side. The consequences of a troubled relationship The pressure, from government, limited partners and venture funds, in the current economic climate to seek safe returns on any investment of public or private funds combined with the complexity of scientific developments and the expertise needed to judge their future commercial value has led to an ever-increasing gap in the market for the funding of complex blue-skies innovative thinking that solves problems for people and planet. Yet, it is this early stage blue-skies work that the rest of the chain for economic growth in the scientific sector is predicated upon. This raises three questions in relation to research that could have enormous positive impact: who funds it, who decides what gets funded, and what happens to things that are not funded? To start with the last of these questions, the problem for many developed countries that were previously among the undisputed leaders in scientific research is this: there is an increasing amount of money available to fund blue-skies research among the so-called ‘rising powers’, especially in China and India. As it proves ever more difficult to raise funds, the possible consequences are an ideas and brain drain . At the moment this flight of early-stage ideas is offset by their return to countries such as the US and the UK at the point of testing because of the better protection of intellectual property rights here. But eventually and inevitably, China and India will address their shortcomings in this respect and then they will also retain the commercial benefits of the blue-skies research they are investing in. Moreover, and as seen in the case of Evergreen Solar moving its operations from the US to China, “the draw of Chinese state-owned banks and municipal governments… offering unbeatable assistance” is an indicator of an increasingly competitive market place where countries other than the G7 offer better conditions for funding long-term development and commercialization of new technology. If retaining their positions as world leaders in scientific exploration and its commercialization is vital to the G7 economies, what needs to be done and are we willing to do it? The gap that needs to be covered is between the origin of an idea and that stage in its development where its successful commercialization is more likely than not. Early-stage investment funds can play a vital role in bridging this gap: they pick up where notional research leaves off but well before the commercial value of a discovery has been completely verified. Early-stage investment funds thus provide the answer to the question of who decides what gets funded because they bring together scientific experts with venture capitalists — those who understand the complex science behind the idea right at the point of due diligence and those who have the business acumen to vet business plans, fund them, and guide their implementation. Early-stage investment funds, however, do not in themselves answer the question of who invests in blue-skies research, but they can make it a more promising and less daunting venture by helping to contribute to a faster and more reliable idea-to-market process. In other words, they can contribute to creating an environment in which traditional investors in notional ideas, such as large corporates, governments and charitable trusts in partnership with universities and dedicated research centers, can be assured that proven ideas will be picked up by next-stage investors who invest in testing an idea and developing it for commercial exploitation. This is the role taken on by early-stage investors who, by taking a lasting and active interest in the success of the entrepreneurs they fund, also provide them with the credibility needed for later-stage investments by larger venture funds, thus performing the vital function of a feeder fund and contributing to the long-term success of their own initial investments and a justification for the investment of private and public funds at the first stage of blue-skies research. Still, governments must not abdicate their responsibility and will need to decide if they are willing and able to step up and commit to creating an environment where blue-skies thinking is supported — with direct investment and concrete incentives for the private sector to invest in notional work before its commercial value is fully tested. In other words, governments need to decide whether to make a strategic investment in blue-skies research and in their own futures as countries where science that is about people and planet can flourish. Note: An edited version of this was published by The Times and on the Marcus Ventures website

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‘The Most Amazing Press Release Ever Written’

January 12, 2011

The folks at PitchPoint Public Relations have really taken the press release genre to a whole new level. PR Newswire has posted a press release that is, in the words of its author Mitch Delaplane of PitchPoint, “the most amazing press release that has ever been written.” In an innovative approach to what can be deadly dull, Delaplane has written a press release that exists exclusively to call attention to its own greatness. “I’ve been in the business for over ten years and have to say, I’m speechless,” claims Delaplane.  ”The title alone grabs you and demands that it be read.  Then there’s this quote that completely takes things to an entirely new level.  I’m proud of this press release.  In fact, I think it is [really] amazing.” Read the full release below to soak in the totality of its awesomeness (h/t techcrunch ). The Most Amazing Press Release Ever Written PR Professional Distributes Groundbreaking Press Release CHICAGO, Jan. 11, 2011 /PRNewswire/ - Mitch Delaplane of PitchPoint Public Relations has issued the most amazing press release ever written.  While hundreds of press releases are distributed daily, Delaplane feels this particular release will go down in history as the most amazing press release that has ever been written. “I’ve been in the business for over ten years and have to say, I’m speechless,” claims Delaplane.  ”The title alone grabs you and demands that it be read.  Then there’s this quote that completely takes things to an entirely new level.  I’m proud of this press release.  In fact, I think it is [really] amazing.” Typically reserved for company news announcements and other public relations communications, the press release has long been the favored default for informing media about exciting, groundbreaking news.  Then this news release comes along and changes everything people thought they knew about press releases. “I’m quoting myself again because the first quote didn’t do it justice,” says Delaplane.  ”If you’re still reading this news release, then you know what I’m talking about when I say it’s something special.  In fact, it’s 483 words of pure awesomeness.  When it crosses the wires, I believe history will have been made.” The science behind this Earth-shattering news release lies in its simplicity – no science, just pure old press release craftsmanship.  It started with an incredible brainstorming session that asked a very simple question: “what makes a press release amazing?”  Elaborate notes from that brainstorm were then formulated into mesmerizing sentences, paragraphs and pages…all expertly designed to make you pause and reflect at the brilliance of this press release. Every single word of this news release was track changed, stetted, then track changed again to its original draft.  Upon final approval, it was spell checked, fact checked and printed for posterity.  The result is a two-page, 1.5-spaced news release that is like no other news release in existence. According to PitchPoint Public Relations you have just read the most amazing press release ever written.  If you agree, tell Mitch at mitch@pitchpointpr.com or follow him on Twitter at Lifeisamitch. If you disagree, issue your own press release and prepare for war.

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Don Tapscott: Macrowikinomics: Privacy in the Age of Facebook

January 10, 2011

This article is part of a series written by Don Tapscott and Anthony D. Williams, authors of the newly released book Macrowikinomics: Rebooting Business and the World . Mark Parker, the CEO of Nike calls it “A masterpiece. An iconic and defining book for our times.” The Economist says it’s a “Schumpeterian story of creative destruction.” The book argues that many of the institutions of the industrial age have finally come to the end of their lifecycle, and are now being reinvented around a new set of principles and a networked model. Today’s blog looks at the threat posed by social media to our concept of privacy. **** Every business needs to design privacy principles and practices into their operations. An excellent candidate for such a process would be Facebook, because there’s no doubt its Achilles heel is privacy. In the past we only worried about Big Brother governments assembling detailed dossiers about us. Then came what privacy advocates called Little Brother — corporations that collect data from their customers. Companies such as Amazon want to know more and more about what makes each of us tick — our motivations, behavior, attitudes, and buying habits. The good news is that they can use this intimate knowledge to give us highly customized services. The bad news is that once these digital mirror images are compiled they are rarely, if ever, deleted. They can be used inappropriately and even end up being sold to third parties. Now there is a new unexpected threat — ourselves. Call it Baby Brother. With the meteoric rise of social media, we are increasingly willing accomplices in undermining our own privacy rights. Before Facebook arrived, who would have predicted that hundreds of millions of people would voluntarily log on to the Internet and record detailed minute-by-minute data about themselves, their activities, their likes and dislikes, and so on? To make things worse, some social networking leaders confuse the right to privacy with transparency, arguing that transparency is good for individual relationships. In the book The Facebook Effect , David Kirkpatrick explains that some Facebook executives think transparency is not just an opportunity for companies and other institutions to disclose pertinent information about themselves. (This is the definition of transparency.) They believe it’s an opportunity for individuals to do so as well. The Facebook founders believe that “more visibility makes us better people. Some claim, for example, that because of Facebook, young people today have a harder time cheating on their boyfriends or girlfriends. They also say that more transparency should make for a more tolerant society in which people eventually accept that everybody sometimes does bad or embarrassing things.” Some at Facebook refer to this as Radical Transparency — a term initially used to talk about institutions, and now being adapted to individuals. “Our mission since Day 1 has been to make society more open” says Dave Morin, one of Facebook-founder Mark Zuckerberg’s inner circle. In other words, everyone should have just one identity, whether at their workplace or in their personal life. This is misguided. Transparency applies to organizations, not people. Organizations are increasingly obliged to communicate pertinent information to their customers, shareholders, business partners and so on. This is not the case for individuals. Indeed, individuals have an obligation to themselves to safeguard their personal information. And institutions should be transparent about what they do with our personal information. This situation poses an unprecedented challenge for government and regulators because it has turned traditional privacy laws and regulations upside down. Privacy and data protection laws ensure that organizations collect, use, retain and disclose our personal information in a confidential manner. But today the biggest threat is not other organizations, it’s us. There are probably thousands of recent university graduates who didn’t get that dream job because the employer did a “reference check” online and found them doing something inappropriate. At the same time, new risks and threats such as identity fraud and theft are growing in a networked world, along with new forms of discrimination and social engineering made possible by the surfeit of data. Personal information, be it biographical, biological, genealogical, historical, transactional, locational, relational, computational, vocational or reputational, is the stuff that makes up our modern identity. It must be managed responsibly. Ultimately, in order to properly protect privacy, all of us will need to be vigilant about our own online behavior. Macrowikinomics available at: Macrowikinomics.com Follow Anthony Williams on Twitter: www.twitter.com/adw_tweets

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Dan Dorfman: The Jobs lost in the Great Recession May Return… By 2018

January 9, 2011

The charade in the bloodied jobs market just won’t quit. That’s the growing contention–strongly promoted by the White House and Wall Street–that the employment picture is on the verge of taking a decided turn for the better and that it’s only a matter of time, thanks to a peppier economy and government stimulus, before the roughly 8.5 million jobs lost during the recent recession will be restored. Friday’s bum employment news–the creation of only 103,000 new jobs in December, nearly 50% lower than the generally expected 150,000–was an unmistakable sign to the contrary, namely that the folks holding such exuberant job expectations are not doing it with a full deck. The key reason: The economy, though on the way back and gnawing away at unemployment, is by no means ready to transition into robust growth. Nor is Corporate America, though sitting with oodles of cash on their balance sheets (about $2 trillion) in a gradually improving economy, ready to commit to more aggressive hiring on a national level. Nor, for that matter, are banks, whose death rate continues at brisk pace (157 failures in 2010, the highest number since 1992), and saddled with a lofty level of overly stated assets, especially in real estate, ready to offer an abundance of cash to would-be buyers to speed up the recovery, in turn leading to more job creations. So it all raises some obvious questions: How long should it realistically take to recover the jobs lost during the recession and get us back to a normal unemployment rate? And what will it cost Uncle Sam to achieve such a goal? For some thoughts, I rang up Madeline Schnapp, the economic skipper of West Coast liquidity tracker TrimTabs Research, partially owned by Goldman Sachs. Sharp, incisive, perceptive and thought-provoking, she is no stranger to my HuffPost contributions, having made a number of timely and on-the-money economic calls. Sorry to say, her words won’t be pleasing to the 14.5 million jobless Americans or the nearly 26 million job seekers, including those who’ve quit the work force and would like full-time employment. For starters, Schnapp figures it will take four to seven years to recuperate all the jobs lost during the recession, which means the timetable could be as far out as 2018. She believes four is probably too optimistic, given such ongoing economic-stifling problems as high unemployment, a dead housing market, a deleveraging consumer, the financial plight of state and local governments saddled with gigantic budget gaps, meaning more layoffs and higher taxes, and a 14% jump in prices at the gas pump over the past three months, equivalent to a $60 billion tax on consumption on an annual basis. Actually, Schnapp thinks there’s a possibility that 20% to 25% of the lost jobs may never come back because of the damaging effects from the eventual collapse of the hyper-charged housing market between 2003 and 2007. Over the past two years, the federal government has spent about $3.5 trillion in bailouts, stimulus and quantitative easing. In 2010, after almost two consecutive years of job losses, the economy generated about 1.1 million jobs. That means each job that year cost taxpayers $3.2 million. Going forward, Schnapp estimates the economy will produce a total of 2.8 million jobs in 2010 and 2011. If that’s right, each job will cost taxpayers $2 million. She further notes that if the Fed keeps printing dollars ad nauseum and the government keeps running trillion dollar-plus deficits, the total price tag to replace the 8.5 million jobs could run $13-$15 trillion. Given her economic concerns, our worry-wart looks for a muddling-along 2011 economy, with anemic growth, say in the 2%-2.5% range. Goldman Sachs, more positive than Schnapp, recently predicted the S&P would wsind up would wind up this year at 1,500. She disagrees, looking for an uninspiring year for investors, with the index trading in a narrow range of 1,050-1,100 on the low side and 1,300 on the high side. Another 2011 thought from Schnapp: She expects another round of quantitative easing or QE3. No, not to further fuel the economy, but to provide bailout money for insolvent states, such as California, Illinois and New Jersey. “They say it can’t happen, but we’ve heard that before,” she says. “I guess deficits work, until you run out of other people’s money.” What do you think? E-mail me at Dandordan@aol.com

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David Isenberg: Put Your Empirically Proven Data Where Your Mouth Is

January 9, 2011

As a military veteran, and someone who is more interested in actual facts than rhetoric, I have long been bugged by two claims made by private military and security contracting advocates, i.e., first, that most security contractors are, by way of past military experience, somehow more “professional” than the average soldier or marine on their first or second hitch, and, second, that most private military contractors are more cost-effective than using their public sector counterparts. Of course, one expects PMC trade associations to say this kind of thing; it is what they get paid for. Their membership would hardly be paying their dues if they said, for example, gee, I don’t know the answer to that question but we should form a group to study it. Still, given how often they make those sorts of claims, one might think they would at least provide some evidence. I mean how difficult is it to create a page on their websites and cite a few, empirically sound, methodologically rigorous, peer reviewed studies to back up their claims? If a military veteran takes work as a private security contractor after their first tour of active duty, not all of which will have been spent in a war or conflict zone, are they really going to be that much more experienced than someone on active duty who, nowadays, likely has had repeated tours of duty in Iraq or Afghanistan? To provide some perspective let’s look at a recently published paper It is Outsourcing, Managing, Supervising, and Regulating Private Military Companies in Contingency Operations and was a 129-page thesis written by Ali Kemal Dogru, a student at the Naval Postgraduate School. He is a First Lieutenant in the Turkish Army and has earned an M.A. in Security Studies (Stabilization and Reconstruction) from the NPS. It’s important to remember that Lt. Dogru is not against the use of PMC. But it is clear he feels that they can be better controlled and regulated. Here are two excerpts relevant to the above points. The first, for those who have actually been in the military, is not new or original, but given how little it is actually mentioned in public bears noting. Both militaries, which are public agencies, and PMCs, which are private corporations, are security providers; however, there are striking differences between them. The first difference is that unlike militaries, private military is not considered to be a profession. Samuel Huntington defines professionalism by means of three primary characteristics: expertise, social responsibility, and corporateness. He conceptualizes the military as a profession, only if its officer corps has internalized all of these characteristics. According to Huntington, what separates an officer from a mercenary is that while for an officer, social responsibility outweighs monetary motivation; for a mercenary, private gain is the primary motivation. When the criteria that Huntington uses to measure professionalism are applied to PMCs, it becomes clear that private security is not a profession for two prominent reasons: first; money, most of the time even if not always, outweighs social responsibility in the private military sector. Second; unlike militaries, PMCs lack of corporateness. PMCs are private entities that have distinct organizational cultures and norms. Expertise, on the other hand, is perhaps the most important reason that principals prefer PMCs, as they provide some services that require considerable proficiency. Nevertheless, though necessary, expertise is not sufficient alone to make private military a profession. The second difference is that militaries are responsible to both the state and the society, whereas PMCs are only responsible to their principals in terms of their contracts. As Martha Minow states, “Military training, unit discipline, the Uniform Code of Military Justice, and international legal standards governing war and armed conflicts ensure accountability for the military but not for private corporations and their employees engaged in military work.” According to Peter Warren Singer: Private employees have distinctly different motivations, responsibilities, and loyalties than those in the public military. No matter their background, while in a private company, employees are directly responsible to the corporation and its executives; they are hired, fired, promoted, demoted, rewarded, and disciplined by the management of their private company, not by government officials or the public. There are many regulations and laws that keep militaries accountable at both national and international levels. However, there is neither overarching international regulatory framework nor effective regulatory mechanisms at the national level that keep PMCs accountable, including the Geneva Conventions. Moreover, even though some countries have written laws and regulations that seek to exert control over PMCs, enforcement still remains a challenge. Despite the patches to existing gaps in regulations, some PMC personnel still fall outside of the national and international regulatory framework. In other words, PMCs in a sense operate in the grey area. Last but not least; while for militaries there is only one legitimate principal (state), for PMCs, there are many options, including: states, international organizations, such as the UN, regional organizations, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), private corporations, and weak governments. Picking and choosing between multiple principles brings about many potential hazards on the part of the governments that employ them, while providing PMCs with considerable flexibilities. Unlike militaries, PMCs have the opportunity to select between these alternatives, and to switch sides, depending on who pays the most. Integrity and probity, which are important components of the military profession, do not make sense in the private military sector. Then there is the cost-effectiveness issue. As Bill Clinton might have said, it all depends on what you mean by cost. It also depends on what your time frame is. I find this passage particularly relevant, and not a little ironic, given that the studies mentioned below has been cited by PMC supporters as proving their claims. In contingency operations, governmental agencies have basically two alternatives: using a military unit, or contracting with a PMC. In this context, in order to properly decide to contract out a particular function, governmental agencies need to know whether it is less expensive to use a PMC rather than a military unit or not. However, there are extraordinary difficulties in making a comparison between a PMC and a military unit. First, pay is just one factor that determines the total costs. If governmental agencies just rely on direct or production costs in their make-or-buy decisions, they may fail to make the right decision, either by overestimating the possible benefits of outsourcing PMCs or by underestimating the actual costs of outsourcing PMCs. Governmental agencies may waste taxpayer’s dollars unless transaction costs are thoroughly analyzed. How, for example, can costs associated with training, healthcare, retirement salaries, and compensations of military personnel be incorporated into calculations and compared? How should training costs for contractors, monitoring, information and contract management costs be taken into account while making comparisons between military units and PMC alternatives? Traditional cost analysis generally ignores these transaction costs. The second complication is that gathering detailed data with respect to PMCs and military personnel is painstaking. For instance, a March 2010 GAO report demonstrates that the Pentagon could not provide the GAO with critical data to make a comparison, since it does not have enough information regarding “the number of military personnel that would be needed to meet the contract requirements or the cost of training personnel to carry out security functions.” The third complication is that even though there are aggregated data with regard to money spent on PMC, it is often difficult to break down this general data into individual contracts. For example, A 2008 CBO report states: “From 2003 through 2007, U.S. agencies awarded $85 billion in contracts for work to be principally performed in the Iraq theater, accounting for almost 20 percent of funding for operations in Iraq.” The Department of Defense’s share in this total is almost 90 percent ($76 billion). According to the CBO figures, total expenditure for private security services was between $6 billion and $10 billion during the 2003-2007 period. The CBO also notes that “between $3 billion and $4 billion of that spending was for obligations made directly by the U.S. government for private security services in Iraq.” Though providing a general picture, these figures are not comparable, since they do not give any idea of how much the agency would spend if it performed the same tasks internally. At this point, it is useful to look at comparable figures to better understand whether PMCs are costeffective. … What then is the cost of contractor personnel in comparison to military soldiers? Is outsourcing really cost-effective? The CBO released a cost comparison analysis of a PMC versus its military alternative in 2008. According to the report, “the costs of a private security contract are comparable with those of a U.S. military unit performing similar functions.” Nevertheless, “during peacetime, the private military contract would not have to be renewed, whereas the military unit would remain in the force structure.” To put it another way, there is no savings during wartime. In this analysis, CBO took three types of costs into consideration while estimating the military unit’s cost: military personnel costs, operating costs, and equipment costs. In the analysis, the military pay rates include “basic pay, subsistence and housing allowances, plus a federal tax advantage because those allowances are not taxed,” however exclude “free health care for military families back home, and deferred benefits, such as pay and health care for those who receive military retirement benefits.” While estimating the costs associated with Blackwater employees, CBO took personnel, monitoring, contract management, equipment, and insurance costs into consideration. Summations on both sides were then compared. Nonetheless, training costs on both sides are not incorporated into these calculations. This is partly because while staff of organizations are usually considered “assets,” money spend on their training is not recognized as “asset specific.” In other words, it is assumed that the investment in training of military personnel has no value to the organization, if these personnel leave the job. However, since human capital of PMC relies on former military personnel, who were already trained by the military in the past; calculations that exclude training costs may misrepresent the actual situation. The chart above shows that there is not much difference between Blackwater and an Army infantry unit in terms of operational costs. However, this comparison does not reflect the real picture, since costs may change depending on the type of function that is outsourced, the length of contract, and the conditions under which the function is performed. Moreover, it is difficult to generalize these findings, as different PMCs would have different performances. On the other hand, there are considerable reasons that make us believe that militaries are less efficient in the long-term than PMCs. Most significantly is that, unlike PMCs, militaries are idle in peacetime. From the government’s perspective, the money, which is spent on weapon, equipment, and manpower in peacetime, is a lost economic output, since most of this capital is idle when not being used. Therefore, rather than maintaining huge forces that must be paid and trained periodically, sometimes outsourcing some tasks to PMCs only when necessary may be cost-effective. For example, in 2005, CBO estimated that over a 20-year period including both peacetime and wartime, outsourcing logistical functions to PMCs would cost around $41 billion, whereas obtaining the same logistical functions from the United States military would cost approximately $78 billion. This estimation clearly shows that it is profitable for the Department of Defense to outsource some logistical functions to PMCs. PMCs also perform other functions, such as security, military training and military advice. In order to figure out which functions PMCs execute more efficiently, performances of PMCs and militaries must be measured and compared on a case-by-case basis. Although it is relatively easier to measure costs associated with logistics, it is more difficult to measure costs related to functions like security, military training and advice. Alternatively, it may sometimes be costly to utilize PMCs, particularly when there is no effective oversight mechanism to keep their activities under control. Paying for duplicate services, fraud, and sustainability problems of the reconstruction projects may yield unintended consequences if PMCs are not properly managed and supervised. In fact, effective monitoring and good contract management are themselves costly, even if there is no fraud.

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Inder Sidhu: Reality Check: Is Your Business Strategy Ready for 2011?

January 7, 2011

Here’s a sobering thought for the new year: most business strategies are woefully incomplete. So reveals a new survey from McKinsey Quarterly. The publication polled 2,135 executives about their business strategies to determine how many could pass a stress test of 10 questions . The survey asked about granularity, uncertainty and flexibility, among other things. In the end, the majority of executives polled said their strategies could not pass four of the survey’s simple tests. This means many leaders are basically winging it in several important areas. But you don’t have to. With the new year just beginning, it’s not too late to put your own business strategy to the test. The one featured in the McKinsey Quarterly is excellent. If you’re pressed for time, here are five questions from me worth considering: 1. How differentiated is your strategy? When you drive to work or browse the Internet, do you come across companies doing pretty much the same thing as your organization? If so, does your strategy include specific ideas for out-maneuvering them? You’d be surprised how many business strategies do not. One reason is because many business leaders have difficulty accepting that their ideas are not unique. They tend to downplay imitators or ignore potential disrupters. It’s a common mistake. The truth is originality is like gold — extremely valuable and very rare. If your business plan is based on some sense of exceptionalism , then it must be truly different to prevail. If other organizations offer goods or services at similar price points, you must rethink you value proposition. 2. Does your strategy depend on macro-economic growth? Though we are a mere few days into 2011, economic indicators look better than a year ago. Already, stocks are trending up and manufacturing is showing signs of life . This positive information comes on the heels of sales for the holiday shopping season, which increased 5.5 percent over 2009. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. The new 112th Congress was just sworn in on Wednesday. It is likely to make steep cuts in many areas. It must also resolve a huge dispute about the national debt ceiling. Considering how much of the nation’s GDP is tied to government spending, the outcome will likely have far-reaching effects. In other words, it’s anybody’s guess how strong the 2011 economy will be. Most experts forecast GDP growth in the United States to be between 3 percent to 3.5 percent. But what if it turns out to be half that due to unforeseen circumstances? Will your strategy still work? The fact is most business leaders don’t have a Plan B. Their strategies for staffing, acquisitions, business development and more are almost always based on strong economic growth. When results don’t meet expectations, however, companies get lost. Take Hillcrest Bank of Kansas City. It bet big on real estate lending and failed last fall. Had it devised a business strategy that could work in all kinds of weather, it might not be out in the cold today. 3. Will your strategy work if you or any of your company’s other leaders leave? Most businesses have recalibrated parts of their strategies since the recession save, perhaps, for one important area: talent retention. In the past few years, voluntary turnover has been rare. With fewer jobs available, even top performers stayed put during the downturn. But with key sectors of the economy springing to life, employees are weighing their options. More are likely to change jobs if not careers in 2011. Is your organization prepared? By that I mean will your strategy work if any of your top leaders depart? Or is it dependent on their unique skills and capabilities? Also worth considering: can your business survive a sudden jolt in the form of demands for higher wages and better benefits? If hiring does improve as some experts forecast, then these questions will have to be factored into your business strategy this year. 4. Does your business strategy take into account things that are beyond your control? The past decade has been nothing short of a revolution in terms of technological advance. Just 10 years ago, the most popular navigation tool for drivers was a paper map and the most popular social meeting place was Starbucks. Now everyone uses MapQuest and Facebook instead. It’s a different world today, of course, though you might not know by looking at some companies’ business strategies. Blockbuster is in bankruptcy because it underestimated the impact new technology would have on its business. Similarly, other companies are struggling to cope with new regulations put in place after the collapse of the housing market and the tumult that followed in the financial sector. Congressman Darrell Issa , the incoming leader of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, is trying to roll back rules that have hurt businesses. But it could be years before his efforts help your company — if ever. Take time, thus, to thoroughly assess the impact that innovation and regulation could have on your organization this year. 5. Can your business strategy stretch as far as your opportunities? When you think of Amazon.com, you think of books, electronics and clothing for consumers. But advanced computing services for businesses? You might be surprised to learn that the online retailer is fast becoming a major player in cloud-based computing. (My company, Cisco, has certainly taken notice.) What Amazon is doing, however, is not uncommon. A lot of successful organizations started off in one industry and then expanded to another when the time was right. Phone giant Nokia? It stared off in the wood pulp business. Fashion purveyor Gucci? It was originally a saddle maker. The point is these organizations had flexible business strategies that allowed them to take advantage of opportunities and market transitions. What about your organization: Could it embrace a new business model without upending its existing one? It can’t if your existing strategy is too restrictive and the minds of your leaders are too closed. Hopefully the above will open the floor to some new discussion where you work. Meantime, Happy New Year. As John Lennon sang, let’s hope it’s a good one. Inder Sidhu is the Senior Vice President of Strategy & Planning for Worldwide Operations at Cisco , and the author of Doing Both: How Cisco Captures Today’s Profits and Drives Tomorrow’s Growth . Author proceeds from sales of Doing Both go to charity. Follow Inder on Twitter at @indersidhu .

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Budget Woes Threaten Vital Services In New York City

January 7, 2011

NEW YORK — The children at Strong Place day care in Brooklyn can recognize a Van Gogh. They can discuss the effects of acid rain. Some of these preschool-aged kids can even read. But in July, if New York City sticks to its current plan, this learning will end. Strong Place is one of 16 city-funded day care centers slated for closure under mayor Michael Bloomberg’s plan to plug a budget hole of more than $3 billion. That Strong Place provides a crucial service for low-income residents of the community, with a four-decade-long record of educating young children, doesn’t matter. It, and others like it, must go. “When parents hear about this, they start to cry,” said Age Pjetergjoka, the bookkeeper at Strong Place. “We take care of kids that really need help.” In the wake of the worst financial crisis since the Depression, cities across the nation are struggling to compensate for wounded tax revenue, which in many cases isn’t enough to fund even the most basic of services. New York City’s budget is in relatively strong shape, thanks in part to rounds of cuts Bloomberg has been implementing since before the crisis struck. But even here, as deficits remain, the city must continue the bitter process of trimming services wherever it can, squeezing savings from groups that shelter the homeless, investigate domestic abuse and provide families with day care. In November, Bloomberg proposed his latest round of cuts, which included carving more than $61 million from children’s services over the next two years. This week, the city council reached an agreement with the mayor to restore a portion of these cuts. But the 16 day care centers, which were targeted under an earlier plan, remain on the chopping block. “If this closes, that’s it,” said R. Ramos, 27, a mother whose child is enrolled at Strong Place, and who declined to give her full first name because she works for the city. “I can’t take another childcare leave of absence.” To the energetic teachers and loyal parents of Strong Place, the cuts seem haphazard, and supremely unfair. The Administration for Children’s Services, one of the city agencies that determine where the mayor’s cuts will fall, targets programs, not providers. This means the cuts land across the board, shuttering a range of providers, seemingly regardless of their proven success. As part of a guiding principle that risks sounding contradictory, ACS says its priority is to ensure the well-being of the city’s most vulnerable residents, not the well-being of the groups that serve them. “Our top priority is always to minimize disruption to children,” said ACS spokesperson Elysia Murphy, in a statement. “We have been working with families since the summer to identify alternative child care programs to transfer the children.” But parents at Strong Place say other options won’t exist. Their situation is unusually dire, partially because what they currently have is unusually valuable. Of the 16 day care centers slated for closure in the city, 11 are in Brooklyn, and five are in or around Strong Place’s community board district. The reason for this seeming unevenness isn’t clear. The staff at Strong Place say ACS sees their location, around the corner from the upscale streets of the Cobble Hill neighborhood, as gentrified, and able to sustain cutbacks. For some residents, that may be. But others depend on public day care in order to stay afloat. The 12.6-acre housing project across the street from Strong Place, and the storefronts that line Hoyt Street, belie any notion that upper middle-class comfort is uniform. In a budget proposal last year, the city estimated that 1,150 children were enrolled in the 16 day care centers that are set to be closed. The savings, principally from cutting rent payments, would reach about $16 million each year. “I don’t know how all these children are going to be absorbed,” said Norma Martin, assistant executive director of Brooklyn Community Services, a non-sectarian agency. “Parents might quit their jobs or drop out of school.” Despite the city’s promise to help parents find other day care providers, parents say that simply isn’t possible. At Strong Place, parents of the 54 children currently enrolled often pay just $20 a month. In many neighborhoods, where few public day care centers exist, finding alternatives means enduring a long commute. Private day care, another option, is prohibitively expensive: The cost, which can reach more than $20,000 a year, could equal a family’s income. “My wife would stay at home,” said Julius Alfonzo, 38, a Strong Place parent who works as a bus operator. Otherwise, he added, “it wouldn’t make sense. One of the incomes would be paying for childcare.” Not all parents are as lucky as Alfonzo. Many are single. Some live in shelters. A spokesperson for mayor Bloomberg, Marc LaVorgna, acknowledged the sometimes devastating consequences of city budget cuts. “You can’t quantify in dollar value the value of some of the services to people,” he said. “They are very difficult decisions to make, but the city is best served when its financial house remains in order.” Even though it’s considered a day care center, Strong Place operates more like a rigorous preschool. On Thursday, Lorraine Pennisi, the center’s effusive director, who has been a “proud auntie” to Strong Place children for 22 years, beamed as a group of toddlers sang “Keep Christmas With You,” accompanying the words with sign language. On the wall behind her hung drawings from an “art exchange,” between the Strong Place children and students in Port Elizabeth, South Africa. Pennisi is worried, but she tries not to show it. “It’s a very heavy burden on me,” she said, “to keep people hopeful.”

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Marc Middleton: Growing Bolder: What Was Under Your Tree?

January 3, 2011

What was on your holiday wish list?” If you’re over 50, advertising and marketing executives think it’s the same things that have been on the list of 50-plus consumers for the past five decades — not much and not very exciting. Amazingly, most “experts” still subscribe to the outdated and outright ridiculous belief that all 50-plus consumers are poor, overly frugal, highly technophobic and averse to switching brands. As a result, they spend all of their efforts trying to attract 18-year-olds with little money and attention spans roughly equivalent to the squirrels in my back yard. The notion that 50-plus consumers are extremely brand-loyal and therefore not worth targeting with marketing dollars defies common sense. The truth is, we are less brand-loyal than ever because we’re smarter than ever. We know how to research. We’ve learned that the shiniest object isn’t necessarily the best object. We don’t purchase to impress. We purchase to get high value and utility and because we have many new interests, we have many new needs. Most of the brands I buy didn’t even exist 10 years ago. My Christmas wish list this year included: a Garmin Forerunner 410 GPS watch, an Amazon Kindle, an Apple iPad, a Roland electronic drum set, a Flip camera, a Finis Swimp3 waterproof MP3 player and Joby Gorillamobile for iPhone. I’m pretty sure I wasn’t marketed to by any of these companies. Sandy Scott, 70, on his $3000 bike How dismissive are television advertisers and marketers when it comes to the 50-plus demographic? Enough that Nielsen ratings come to a screeching and premature halt at age 54. And because Neilsen doesn’t track ratings over age 54, your local television station doesn’t care what you think. Literally. When the station does market research, the first question they ask is, “How old are you?” If the answer is over 54, they discontinue the interview. That made sense two decades ago. Today, it’s so laughable that it could be an SNL skit. NBC Universal recently called a press conference to report that its new research reveals that the 55-to-64 demographic is as vibrant as younger demographics in ad spending. They even went so far as to say “54-65 is the new 18-34.” Kudos to NBCU, but it’s not like they just discovered the new world. There is nothing in their aha! moment, their marketing epiphany, that hasn’t been said a hundred times, very clearly, by the likes of Ken Dychtwald , Mary Furlong , Chuck Nyren, Matt Thornhill , Dick Stroud, Brent Green and a dozen others. In some cases, major corporations and media networks hired and paid the above to tell them exactly that. And then they pretty much ignored what they learned. Of course, I’m not implying that everyone over 50 has money or leads a vibrant, active lifestyle. Fifty-plus is not only the largest demographic; it’s also the most diverse — in every imaginable way. It contains poverty and wealth; obesity, morbidity and extreme vitality. But here’s the simple, obvious and undeniable equation. From the whole, subtract the group with poor health and finances. What’s left is a very large and growing number of men and women who will continue to be the greatest consumers of all time for another 30 or 40 years. Mark my words — in 30 years, it will be commonplace for 90-year-olds to spend large sums of money traveling, skiing, dining out and buying the latest and greatest gadgets. The money spent by 90-year-olds will determine the success of many businesses. Change is coming in a way that will be too big to ignore. The proof is on the holiday wish lists of today’s 50-plus consumers. Smart companies are not waiting to react. They have already positioned themselves by beginning to actively court the 50-plus consumer in a thoughtful and respectful way. The others will learn that disliking a brand lasts longer than liking one. Banana George Blair barefoot waterskiing at 92

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David Isenberg: PMSC vs. Pirates

December 24, 2010

In the past few years, in response to the increased attacks on maritime shipping by Somali pirates there has been increased call for and use of what might call PMSC (Private Maritime Security Contractors). In particular, some have been advocating utilizing the lessons of the past by issuing letters of marquee. Such letters have an honorable pedigree. In past centuries a Letter of Marque and Reprisal was a government license authorizing a private vessel to attack and capture enemy vessels, and bring them before admiralty courts for condemnation and sale. Nor was this just something done by other nations. Most people don’t remember that Article 1 of the United States Constitution lists issuing letters of marque and reprisal in Section 8 as one of the enumerated powers of Congress, alongside the power to “declare War”, and because the United States has not renounced privateering by treaty, in theory it could still issue letters of marque. In fact, Representative Ron Paul (R-TX) called on Congress to “issue letters of marque and reprisal, deputizing private organizations to act within the law to disable and capture those engaged in piracy. Thus, the main question is whether, from an economic, national security, or public policy perspective, governments should take advantage of these private sector capabilities. In that regard one should read a law journal article published earlier this year. It is

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Dave Johnson: Corporations Don’t Do Bad Things, People Do!

December 23, 2010

Are there “good” companies and “bad” companies? No, there are just companies, and companies don’t have moral characteristics any more than a chair does. Here is something to understand about the things companies “do.” If we LET a company “do” something, all companies HAVE TO do it. The misunderstanding of deregulation is that anything that CAN be done WILL be done. Anything. E. J. Dionne Jr., in Even progressives need CEOs writes that it is, … important to recognize that there is no single business class or corporate model. Obama doesn’t need to coddle CEOs so they will say warm things about him at parties in the Hamptons. He should figure out which parts of the private sector share an interest in reducing the dreadful inequalities that have metastasized over nearly four decades and in creating an economy that produces well-paying jobs. [. . .] Government policies, no matter how often we use the words “free enterprise,” through design or inadvertence, inevitably affect the private economy. Why not choose policies that specifically encourage sectors that create good jobs for Americans? The piece is well-worth reading because it points out that there are plenty of great business leaders who want to help the country address our problems and do better for our people. Mostly we hear today about the worst kind of self-interested, greed-driven business leaders because those seem to be the ones calling the shots for our economy and our political system. This is because we let the them get away with being the worst, so they rise to the top. We need strong regulations and tough laws so the good CEOs can do the right thing, and still remain competitive. Corporations Are A Good Idea Last year in Why I Am Pro-Corporate , I wrote about why corporations are a good thing The things that the corporate legal structure enables people to do are good for society. This is why We, the People decided to enact the laws that created corporations. If we want to be able to accomplish things on a large scale, like build a railroad or airports and airplanes or skyscrapers – or solar power plants to replace coal power plants – we want to enable people to more easily raise the necessary capital and amass the resources needed to get the job done. The legal structure of the corporate form of a business accomplishes this. Corporations are just an idea. They are just a bundle of contracts. They don’t do things, people do. Do Companies “Do”? Do They “Want”? It is the business leaders, not the companies, who make decisions and want things and do things. Companies are just things that don’t “want” any more than they “do.” They don’t “think.” They don’t “decide.” They don’t “respond.” Sentient entities want and do. It is the people who make decisions want and do things. Companies are not sentient entities any more than chairs are. And how we think about this affects the conclusions we reach. One reason we apply these characteristics to companies is because they want us to. (“They want.” There I go do it, too.) When the people who do marketing for companies (is that better?) try to make us think about companies this way, it is called “branding.” They try to make us believe that a company is somehow a sentient entity because then we can think they “are good or bad” and therefore form emotional attachments that cause us to be influenced into buying their products. This is really just a manipulation and a distraction but it affects our brains. It is so important to realize that we are dealing with individual people who run companies because then we can think clearly about how to deal with the problems that they cause. We have to understand the system, and what we are dealing with. We are dealing with people who run companies, not with companies. You can’t be “pro-business” or “anti-business” because business just is . But you can require that people do the right thing. We Need Very Strong Regulations And Tough Laws When we complain about Wal-Mart “doing” something we are misunderstanding the system. The people who run Wal-Mart will do what we don’t stop them from doing. They have to . They don’t necessarily want to. (Though some do.) That is what the system is. We set down rules, and they follow the rules. If something is not against a rule, then they don’t just do whatever it is, they have to . And if they do something that is against the rules but we let them get away with it, then they will continue and others will start doing that, too. Here is why: If Wal-Mart doesn’t then (the executives who run) Target or KMart or another company will, and then Target or KMart will have a competitive advantage, and after a while we’ll all be complaining about Target or KMart instead because Wal-Mart won’t be in the picture. They have to do everything we let them do. That is how the system works, and that is why we have to have strong regulations and tough law. Instead of complaining about the things the business leaders do, we have to make strong regulations and tough laws to stop them and we have to enforce them . Period. We, the People have to use government “interference” and use force and that is our job and our responsibility to each other and to all of the business leaders who want to do the right thing . It Is Not Fair To The Good, Responsible Leaders Not To Let’s say you are running Wal-Mart and you want to pay people more and want to provide good benefits. But the law does not require you to. If you do these things anyway, and your competitor doesn’t, you are putting your company at a disadvantage, and you are risking the livelihood of everyone in the company . Think about the conflict and pressure that creates in good people who want to do good things. They can’t do good things unless we make all the businesses do good things. Companies are forced by competitive pressure to do the things other companies do, whether they “want” to or not. There isn’t really a middle ground. Our system of competition forces companies to do everything they can get away with, and they will do that, and the only thing that will stop them is We, the People actually stopping them. So don’t complain about things companies are doing, and certainly don’t blame the companies. What do you have to do is change the rules. It just isn’t fair to good people who want to do good things to do anything else. We have been letting good people down by listening to and doing the bidding of the likes of the Chamber of Commerce and the others who are fronts for the worst among the business community, who are working to corrupt our business environment and our politics. Most Business Leaders Are Good People Almost all corporate leaders are good, responsible and well-intentioned. For this reason they want and need clear rules that let them operate their companies responsibly. This is why listening to the greedheads who are always complaining about government and regulations is such a mistake. Most business leaders want to do the right thing and good, strong regulations and laws that are enforced let them do that. The deregulation and lack of enforcement that we see all around us today forces them to do wrong things in the name of staying competitive. When you initially deregulate, good corporate leaders will try to be responsible and they will have every intent of doing so. They will live up to their promises. But along will come other corporate leaders who just want to make money for their companies,and more to the point, for themselves. They will do whatever we let them do to accomplish that. They will push up to and a bit beyond the exact wording of what they think they can get away with. The “good” CEOs will be at a disadvantage and will be forced to do the same. Clear And Strong Regulations When I ran a company I had a rule for agreements – get everything on paper and signed because the people talking about things today on both sides might get in a car wreck, or move to another company or forget or whatever and all that is left is the agreement and not the intent of the agreement. Similarly, we need to clearly lay out every little part of what can and cannot be done because that is what people will do in the end. Business leaders want and need a clear playing field with rules that are strong enough to enable them to do the right thing and remain competitive. Let’s help them out. This post originally appeared at Campaign for America’s Future (CAF) at their Blog for OurFuture . I am a Fellow with CAF. Sign up here for the CAF daily summary .

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Kevin Connor: Celebrating Ten Years of Derivatives Deregulation

December 21, 2010

Today marks the tenth anniversary of President Clinton’s signing of the Commodity Futures Modernization Act (CFMA). At passage, the bill was said to establish “legal certainty” for derivatives. In other words, the bill assured bankers that they wouldn’t face any legal consequences in the United States when they manipulated, defrauded, and colluded their way to billions in profits using financial derivatives that no one understood. The CFMA led to serious consequences for the rest of us, including the exacerbation of the housing bubble and the subsequent bank bailouts and foreclosure crisis; the California electricity crisis; periodic food and energy price spikes that have hit consumer pocketbooks hard; and, of course, the continued reign of an unaccountable shadow banking sector over the economy. The legislation was a bipartisan effort, but Clinton Treasury Secretary Larry Summers — who will soon be leaving the Obama White House — deserves the bulk of the credit for its passage. Summers, along with Robert Rubin and Alan Greenspan, had prevailed over CFTC chair Brooksley Born two years earlier when she attempted to subject derivatives to regulatory oversight. Born was essentially forced out by Summers & co, who then went to work putting together the deregulatory gift basket that later became known as the CFMA. Summers worked Congress in the year preceding the bill’s passage, and testified in June 2000 that it was his “very great hope” that the bill should pass. Democrats have blamed Republican Senator Phil Gramm for one of the more controversial measures in the bill, the so-called “Enron loophole,” which has enabled destructive energy speculation of the sort that caused California’s electricity crisis and the fuel price spikes of 2008. The story goes that Gramm used an extraordinary legislative maneuver to slip the loophole into the bill at the last minute, unbeknownst to other Senators or the Clinton Treasury. During the 2008 presidential race, the Obama campaign suggested that Gramm, a McCain adviser, was the creator of the loophole. Journalists ran with that story. This version of events is extremely far-fetched. Summers and his lieutenants deserve just as much of the credit, if not more, for the inclusion of Enron’s language in the final bill. As early as August 2000 — four months before the passage of the CFMA — Summers lieutenant Lee Sachs , who handled energy negotiations for Summers, indicated to Enron lobbyists that Treasury would support the Enron language, which appeared in the House bill (but not the Senate bill). Here is Enron lobbyist Chris Long describing the meeting to higher-ups in an email from the Enron archive: I told Lee that we shared his desire to move the legislation as long as it contains a full exclusion for all non-agriculture commodities (including metals). He said that we would have a difficult time defending the metals provision politically. But, Lee said “we would not find Treasury opposition to the House Commerce Committee language” (which includes favourable language on energy and metals). This is a positive development, because it isolates the CFTC from its key defenders and I hope ensures no veto threat on our issues. However, I do not expect Treasury to be vocal in support of our position. Enron spent much of the next several months strategizing to get Gramm — whose wife sat on Enron’s board — to recognize how important the legislation was to Enron, support it, and ensure its passage. Gramm was opposed to the bill on the grounds that it didn’t go far enough to deregulate banking products unrelated to Enron’s business. The Clinton administration’s support was never in question. The plan, all along, was to go with Enron’s language despite some opposition in the Senate. It helped that the Clinton Treasury was very cozy with Enron. Just four days before Congress passed the CFMA, Summers awarded Enron lobbyist Linda Robertson — formerly an assistant secretary in the Summers Treasury — Treasury’s highest honor, the Alexander Hamilton award. Summers had recommended Robertson, who now works at the Federal Reserve, for the lobbyist job at Enron. Enron CEO Ken Lay later offered Summers a seat on the board of Enron, as he had done with the previous Treasury Secretary, Robert Rubin, at the close of the Clinton administration; Summers turned it down in light of his appointment as president of Harvard. Summers had also famously assured Lay that “I’ll keep my eye on power deregulation and energy market infrastructure issues” shortly after becoming Treasury Secretary, in hand-written scrawl at the bottom of a letter. Enron lobbyist Robertson later recommended Lee Sachs — who served in the Geithner Treasury from 2009 to 2010 — for a spot on Enron’s advisory committee in an email to Lay assistant Steve Kean and lobbyist Richard Shapiro. The email is worth printing in full (she also mentions the Summers board appointment at the beginning): As you know, Ken has talked to Larry Summers about serving on Enron’s Board of Directors. Larry told Ken that in light of his selection to head Harvard, he wants to hold off going on any corporate boards for now. My understanding is that Larry will most likely accept Ken’s offer at the end of the year. In the meantime, let me suggest a candidate for Enron’s Advisory Committee. Lee Sachs was Assistant Secretary of Treasury for Financial Markets under Bob Rubin and Larry. Lee coordinated the energy negotiations for Larry at the end of the Clinton Administration. You probably met Lee at those meetings. Lee is brilliant. He was a Managing Director at Bear Sterns before joining the Treasury team. He is a huge fan of Enron and is constantly telling me how extremely well positioned Enron is for the future. He has done considerable research on our business model and is constantly talking to his buddies on Wall Street about us. Lee will undoubtedly be a significant player in any future Democratic Administration. I know he would be an invaluable addition to this Committee. He has not decided what he is going to do next, but has several extremely good offers on the table from large investment firms and hedge funds. None of these would conflict with this type of activity. I thought I would plant this suggestion with you not knowing exactly how these things are done. [emphasis mine] Sachs went on to work for Perseus LLC , a private equity firm run by top Democratic insiders Jim Johnson, Richard Holbrooke, and Frank Pearl. He later joined the hedge fund Mariner Investment Group , where he sold toxic CDOs to investors . In 2009 he became Geithner’s right-hand man at Treasury, but left in March 2010 in the wake of controversy surrounding those CDOs, and landed on his feet at Brookings. When he leaves the Obama administration, Summers will inevitably slip out the revolving door and land some lucrative consulting contracts with investment firms that he helped bail out. The deep corporate consensus in this age of deep corporate capture will be the same as it was when Summers last exited a presidential administration — that he did a heckuva job, in Obama’s words. The markets are modernized! the bailouts are booking profits! — and other such nonsense. It’s enough to make one hope for another data dump in the style of the Enron email archive, one that would contain insider communications between bank executives and government officials, thereby further illuminating the wholly captured and compromised state of our political system, where individuals like Larry Summers and Lee Sachs are ascendant, and corporations are able to secure legislation like the CFMA on the strength of powerful friends and bottomless pockets. One can hope… *** I’d like to share one last email from the archive, in case you were still on the fence about whether the Summers Treasury was completely captured by Enron. The following email, from Enron lobbyist Linda Robertson to her higher-ups in the summer of 2001, recounts a conversation between Lee Sachs and NYT reporter Jeff Gerth in which Sachs defends Enron’s favored regulatory exemptions and answers questions related to Enron’s influence of the bill: Lee Sachs was contacted for a second interview by Girth [sic]. Lee concluded from this interview that Girth is going down the “Enron influence” path. Girth did not probe the question of whether derivatives drive the physical commodity market, which as noted below was a big part of the first interview. Girth asked Lee extensive questions about Enron’s involvement in the legislation and who talked to whom and when. Girth said that he had talked to the CFTC who said they got steamrolled on the energy exemption by the Hill. Lee reminded Girth how the CFTC got themselves into this bind when they first issued the “Concept Release” paper, which the President’s working group immediately denounced. Lee said that the Working Group constantly told the CFTC that they should work out the issue with the Hill and to do so quickly because the CFTC had made a massive mistake with the Concept Release document. Lee reminded Girth that while the Working group did not get into the specifics of the energy exemption, that in fact energy was already exempted prior to reauthorization and that it continued to meet the criteria laid out in the President’s report. I can go into that part of the discussion more thoroughly, but just suffice it to say Lee meticulously walked Girth through the safe harbor test and the background of the issue. Girth asked Lee if I had talked to Lee about the issue after leaving Treasury, to which Lee said we talked but not about this subject and that he instead talked to Chris Long. Girth asked if Ken Lay had talked to either Summers or Phil Gramm. Lee said he did not think Ken talked to Summers about the CFTC reauthorization (but mentioned Ken’s very constructive engagement on the Calif energy talks) and that as far as Ken talking to Gramm, Lee had no idea but assumed two Republican Texans would have lots of reasons to talk to each other. Girth told Lee he would soon go on vacation and that they story would come after Labor Day.

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Imad Mouline: M-Commerce Has Arrived — Which Retailers Will Win?

December 20, 2010

We will look back at 2010 as the year M-commerce arrived. This holiday season, more than half of consumers say they will do some form of shopping on their smartphone or mobile device. But our holiday Retail User Experience Index showed many shoppers are only “tolerating” website performance (load time, availability) on mobile devices. This confirms our consumer survey findings that 58 percent of shoppers expect mobile websites to load as fast or faster than their desktop counterparts. These are the same consumers who also desire a rich web experience with video, graphics and compelling applications. M-Commerce: Context is Key Many are quick to blame the carriers for poor mobile performance, but our data shows that’s too simple an excuse: the differences between the best mobile website performers and the laggards are pretty wide, even on the same wireless network. So how does an online retailer address the challenges of mobile devices? The answer is context — specifically how and under what circumstances does your mobile audience interact with your website? Are they bag-totting business travelers who require one-thumb transactions while catching a flight? Is it a shopper at the mall, using her phone for price comparisons or barcode scans? Or a subway rider dealing with spotty connections? And what time of day do they shop and from which geographies? This context was not as important when online retailing was done only on a laptop or desktop computer. Evolution of Mobile Commerce To explore this challenge, let’s look at the evolution of retailing on mobile devices. It starts with a desktop-optimized website and the hope that this core destination, in its full glory, will also perform well on a mobile device. Yes, there are still a few of those left. Step Two is the realization that the smaller screen size requires a distinct layout, so retailers build a mobile-optimized site, which is typically a stripped-down version of their main site, one that recognizes the device and hopefully shifts you to the m-dot version. This is progress, but it still views the device as a limited channel. Because we now live in a world of apps, at some point a retailer moves on to Step Three of the evolution: a simple app. These are usually just a thin native wrapper which reuses existing browser functions. Nothing fancy, but at least it’s an app. Step Four is where many retailers are today, as they capitalize on the full capabilities of the mobile device and build apps with native functions and APIs that use the camera, location services (GPS) and other talents of the hardware itself. The goal is to provide a customized device-specific interface. Then there’s Step Five, where a company decides it must have it all. It revisits Step Three, adding mobile-specific functionality to the website. So it’s no longer about the limitations of mobile or making the site just “fit” the format. Here retailers make certain the browser fully embraces the capabilities of the device, while at the same time offering several dedicated apps, customized for each mobile OS currently available. So how much does any one retailer need? That’s usually based on what the category leaders and top performers are doing. But more often, the competition is the creator of the app or website providing the most useful, interesting and flawless web experience. Even if they’re not in the retail category, these are the companies driving today’s user expectations. Ultimately this brings us back to context: how and under what conditions does your audience use their device and which devices are the most important to them? That will drive a retailer’s buildout priorities. But as we’ve seen, this is a complex issue. Best-in-Breed Mindset Five years ago retailers did not need to consider mobile devices. Today they have to deal with multiple mobile platforms, a variety of mobile browsers, dedicated apps for each OS, and also address the moving target of mobile carrier performance. If a retailer sees these challenges as limitations, it will risk falling behind. Viewing the mobile sea change as a series of opportunities is the predominant mindset we’ve seen in best-in-breed retailers. These leaders also adopt best practices which include benchmarking the competition’s transaction times, so you have a reference point, and also creating an effortless transaction flow. In other words, does it take two steps to complete a transaction or six? Measuring response times from the end-user perspective is also vital, as much can go wrong between your data center and your customer’s iPhone. So take a “first mile to last mile” monitoring approach for the best results. This is particularly important with mobile, where the best sites and apps are architected to seem impervious to the shortcomings of mobile carriers. The game is on for mobile device shopping. And unlike the desktop web, the winners have yet to be crowned. The customers are ready to play, and the days of tolerating poor performance “because it’s mobile” are fading fast. Those who embrace the mobile opportunity, offer the most usable features, and provide the fastest, most consistent performance will emerge as the leaders in their category.

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Joe Nocera: GOP Members ‘Explaining The Crisis With Dogma’

December 18, 2010

But more recently, it has had to do with the growing tug of war between the commissioners over which financial crisis narrative would win out. The Republican minority, fearing their view would get short shrift, pre-emptively put forward a CliffsNotes version of their theory of the case. In other words, they responded to a report that hasn’t even yet been written, much less read and voted on by the members. Is there such a word as “presponse?” Perhaps we should coin it to describe what took place this week at the F.C.I.C.

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Richard Barrington: 8 Best Banking Trends of 2010

December 15, 2010

It seems like the words “good news” and “banking” haven’t gone in the same sentence since the start of the financial crisis in 2008. Although there’s no doubt that bank customers got a raw deal in the recession, there were many positive developments in banking during 2010. Here were the eight best trends in banking for consumers this year: Mortgage rates were cheaper than ever. Historically, 30-year mortgage rates have averaged around 8.91 percent. For the first 11 months of 2010, they averaged 4.69 percent. This cuts the interest expense of buying a house almost in half. Perhaps even better, the drop in mortgage rates sparked a surge in mortgage refinancing, giving a boost to the budgets of many a cash-strapped household. The great thing about these historically low mortgage rates is that while they may not last long, homeowners who were able to lock in 30-year mortgages this year will benefit from this dip in rates for many years to come. Financial reform. The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act — commonly known as financial reform — was a mixed bag for consumers. Chief among the negatives: higher compliance costs may cause higher fees on checking accounts and/or lower interest rates on CDs, savings accounts and money market accounts in the years to come. In the big picture, though, the new law’s consumer protections and restoration of elements of the old Glass-Steagall legislation should make the banking system more stable and secure . Looking ahead, it remains to be seen how long these reforms survive the efforts of the banking lobby to chip away at them. Millions of Americans stopped paying protection. It’s not extortion, but it is exorbitant — overdraft fees had become a huge profit center for banks in recent years. New rules gave customers the latitude to say no to overdraft protection programs and, according to Moebs Services, over 30 million customers did just that. Unfortunately, a great many more chose to continue overdraft protection. Even these customers got a small break, though. The average overdraft fee dropped by 50 cents in the latter half of 2010, according to Moebs. Free checking survived. Some predicted that the compliance costs of Dodd-Frank, the loss of some overdraft fee revenue and previously implemented limitations on credit card practices would drive banks to drop services like free checking. Indeed, a Moebs survey found that the availability of free checking dropped 11 percentage points. However, that still left nearly three-quarters of banks and credit unions offering free checking. With thousands of FDIC-insured institutions out there, customers still had plenty to choose from. A poll in late 2010 by MoneyRates.com and GetRichSlowly.org found that 95 percent of respondents were able to avoid monthly checking account fees one way or another. The hike in FDIC insurance was made permanent. For years, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) insurance was $100,000 per depositor at any given institution. This was temporarily hiked to $250,000 during the banking crisis, and in 2010 this higher insurance limit was made permanent. This was a triple win for consumers. First, this emphatic government backing demonstrated that the federal government is prepared to stand behind deposits in the U.S. banking system. Second, the increase in the insurance ceiling reflected the fact that the previous $100,000 limit had been significantly devalued by inflation since it was established in 1980. Third, raising the insurance limit to $250,000 increases the ability of customers to consolidate funds and take advantage of “jumbo” rates on deposits (offered on balances of $100,000 or higher) and other benefits available to large depositors. The dollar limit for FDIC insurance was increased. In a less publicized move, FDIC insurance on non-interest-bearing transaction accounts, which includes checking accounts that don’t pay interest, was temporarily expanded without limit. These accounts also will not count against the $250,000 limit for other deposits, making it easier for customers to have checking accounts at the same bank as their savings accounts or money market accounts without exceeding the insurance limit. Two caveats: This unlimited insurance is available only from December 31, 2010, to December 31, 2012, and it only applies to accounts that don’t pay interest. Of course, with interest rates as low as they are now, customers would not have to forgo much interest for the benefit of obtaining unlimited insurance on their accounts through 2012. Consumers fought back against credit card debt. A streak of 40 straight years in which revolving credit balances, which chiefly includes credit card debt, increased was broken in 2009. Federal Reserve figures through October 2010 showed that revolving credit debt was on track to decrease again in 2010. This sudden reversal in a decades-long debt binge doesn’t mean that revolving credit balances are now low, but at least they are finally headed in the right direction — back to the neighborhood of 2004 levels. It is also possible that consumers are taking advantage of low interest credit card rates to reduce their total debt spend. Americans began to build savings. Paying down debt is just half the battle for American households. After years of lax savings habits and disappointing investment returns, Americans were far behind in their retirement savings. In 2010 there were some steps in the right direction. According to the Federal Reserve, savings deposit accounts increased during each of the first 10 months of the year. This added a cumulative total of more than $400 billion to savings deposit balances — despite the fact that these balances were getting little help from low interest rates on savings accounts. As with the trend in revolving credit balances, this increase in savings so far represents only a short-term reversal of some long-standing bad habits. Still, the road to rebuilding savings accounts has to begin somewhere, and the figures indicate that in 2010 Americans have at least made a start. Which banking customers didn’t benefit in 2010? Most notably, those who were victimized by slapdash foreclosure procedures by some banks and mortgage processing companies, and the customers in deposit accounts who lost billions of dollars to inflation in an environment of unnaturally low CD rates, savings account rates and money market rates. Maybe 2011 will be the year when these customers get a better deal. The original article can be found at MoneyRates.com: 8 best banking trends of 2010

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Georges Ugeux: The Euro will Neither Collapse nor Disappear

December 13, 2010

The abyss of knowledge of the European situation is as impressive as the pontification of gurus about the end of the Euro. In two previous blogs I suggested not to shorten the Euro (you would have lost 20%) and that the problem is the one Americans refuse to see: the deplorable state of their currency, further weakened by the recent QE2 initiative of one of the worst President that the Federal Reserve had recently. But let’s look at the arguments. The first is that Germany might “drop” the Euro and go back to the Deutsche Mark. This idea ignores two factors. The first one is that there is no way the members of the Eurozone can “drop” the Euro under the prevailing treaties. There is no exit mechanism and any such mechanism would have to be agreed unanimously by the 16 Members of the Eurozone: that is totally unlikely, if not impossible. But there is a reality that few observers understand: before the Euro, most weak European countries -who, by the way, are the same as today- were resorting to competitive devaluation. In other words the disparities of discipline and performance were resolves by devaluing the currencies of the weak countries, and the Italian Lira, the Spanish Peseta and the French Franc were always part of it. That was making German companies less competitive. Now, there are no more competitive devaluations, and Germany is the best performing European country and the most solid financially. The fact that the Eurozone participants agree in difficulty was totally predictable. So predictable that the Stability Pact attached to the Maastricht Treaty provides for sanctions against those who derail. Instead, Europe derailed and did not impose those sanctions as a result of its weak political governance and the fact that the problem was entirely in the hands of politicians and no institution or mechanism was provided to prepare those decisions. It is that negligence that led to the current crisis. However, it also has a secondary advantage: those economies that diverged economically and socially are forced to act now and correct the mechanism. A common currency means that investors will differentiate the countries through interest rates, and they do so. That forces eventually the countries with high interest rates to take drastic and decisive measure not to go bankrupt. In a sense, the current crisis should strengthen further the Euro, and since the dollar is on a sliding slope, its value should improve seriously in the coming months. The key to that is the ability of the weak countries to take the drastic measures they need. It creates social turmoil. It will be politically difficult. Provided that the financial support of the European Stability Fund is assorted with strict conditions, there is a chance that the Euro comes out reinforced and stronger. It requires political decisiveness: the need for convergence is urgent. Without it, further crisis will continue to make investors doubt. Those doubts, however, should not include any scenario of break up or disappearance of the Eurozone.

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Michael Pento: Bernanke: 60 Minutes, 2 Big Lies

December 7, 2010

This past Sunday on the CBS program “60 Minutes”, Americans received a massive dose of mendacity from our Fed Chairman. Mr. Bernanke’s shaky delivery, and even shakier logic may cause faith in America’s economic leadership to evaporate faster than the value of our dollar. In particular, Bernanke delivered two massive distortions: Lie #1 – The Fed isn’t printing money. Bernanke stated: “The amount of currency in circulation is not changing…the money supply is not changing in any significant way. What we’re doing is lowering interest rates by buying Treasury securities.” Given that it is the Treasury Department’s Bureau of Engraving and Printing, not the Fed, that actually prints paper money, his statement is technically correct while substantively false. However, Bernanke is buying bank assets with Fed credit. With such an arrangement, printing becomes unnecessary. According to gentle Ben, credit created to buy something should not be considered money and has no affect on asset prices? But if that’s true, why is he concentrating his buying in the middle of the Treasury yield curve. His stated purpose is to boost bond prices and lower yields in order to stimulate borrowing and aggregate demand. So pushing up bond prices is an act of inflation. Bernanke similarly contradicts himself by saying that he isn’t creating inflation, while at the same time claiming that his easing campaign is designed to boost asset prices to combat the phantom of deflation. And by the way, the Fed is causing money supply to increase significantly. The compounded annual growth rate of M2 is over 7% in the last quarter. Apparently in the eyes of the Chairman, a 7% annualized increase in the broad money supply isn’t considered significant. Lie #2- Bernanke is “100 % confident” that, when necessary, the Fed can control inflation and reverse its accommodative monetary policy. He stated, “We’ve been very, very clear that we will not allow inflation to rise above 2 percent. We could raise interest rates in 15 minutes if we have to. So, there really is no problem with raising rates, tightening monetary policy, slowing the economy, reducing inflation, at the appropriate time.” He failed to mention that the Fed doesn’t have the will to drain money from the system, without which all tools are useless. The Fed has consistently demonstrated its unwillingness to take the appropriate actions when necessary. In claiming he is 100% confident in his ability to control inflation, Mr. Bernanke ignores the record that during his tenure he has misdiagnosed the economy. In June of 2006, Bernanke culminated his inflation fighting efforts by raising the Fed Funds target rate to 5.25%, after CPI inflation reached 4.2%. But that interest rate was enough to help burst the housing bubble and to spark an international credit crisis. Bernanke was completely unaware that the Fed actions had created an economy that had become completely addicted to artificially-produced low interest rates and inflation. Shortly after the collapse of the real estate market and the ensuing truncated deflationary-depression, Bernanke took interest rates to near zero percent. But if the Fed was ever really serious about unwinding excessive leverage, the time had clearly arrived. Instead, the U.S. economy has become more addicted to free money than at any other time in our history. Commodity prices are soaring once again and the real estate market, banking sector, and the overall economy cling precariously on the arm of government induced bailouts and low interest rates. Even worse, our government has massively increased its level of debt, which now stands at just below $14 trillion. Once the rate of inflation eclipses the Fed’s 2% target rate, which appears likely, how then will the Fed raise rates to contain it? Could the economy then withstand an increase in the cost of home ownership? Most importantly, when will Mr. Bernanke find it politically tenable to dramatically increase debt service payments for the Federal government? In truth, there is never a convenient time to have a severe recession or a depression. Unfortunately, reality can be extremely inconvenient. Bernanke was accurate in saying that the economy is not expanding at a sustainable pace. Of course, his prescription was the same as it always is; print more money in the misguided belief that inflation will lead to growth. As such, he indicated that it’s possible that the Fed may actually expand bond purchases beyond the $600 billion announced last month. (Remember that the $600 billion comes after the $1.7 trillion that has already been printed, which failed to produce anything much beyond a weaker dollar). Therefore, the country can look forward to yet more inflation, continued anemic GDP growth, a poorer citizenry, and a vastly lower standard of living. On the bright side, the next segment on 60 Minutes outlined some of the new social networking capabilities being created by Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook. In other words, although our economic misery will likely increase, it should become much easier to share the bad news with friends. Michael Pento is the Senior Economist for Euro Pacific Capital

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Dan Dorfman: Jobs Shocker: Fact or Fiction?

December 5, 2010

It was big news over the weekend, front-page coverage everywhere — the unemployment shocker. That was Friday’s dismal November jobs report of a spurt in the month’s unemployment rate to 9.8% from 9.6%, an obvious sign of more economic distress. But how real were those numbers that came from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which reported the creation of just 39,000 jobs, versus a widely expected addition to the employment rolls in some quarters of about 150,000 workers? Could the BLS report, like the illusion of a pool of water in the steaming desert, have been a mirage? The answer is an emphatic YES from TrimTabs Research, a West Coast liquidity tracker partially owned by Goldman Sachs whose TrimTabs clients include many of the country’s top hedge funds. The way TrimTabs figures it, the economy actually produced 117,000 new jobs in November, 78,000 more than what the BLS reported. Why such a disparity? As, Madeline Schnapp, TrimTabs economics skipper explains it, it’s a reflection of the radically different methodologies used by the two to determine the actual employment numbers. For example, the BLS derives its numbers through a survey of just 60,000 households, whereas TrimTabs’ figures are based on the taxes paid by all employees whose wages and salaries are subject to with-holding. Noting that the BLS is afflicted with the dilemma of having to make seasonal adjustments when it comes to issuing jobs numbers — which is especially difficult at this time of the year because of the heavy temporary retail hiring — she views its November report as a seasonally-adjusted fluke. “It’s like trying to hit a needle with a sledge hammer,” she says. “It ain’t easy.” Schnapp further believes the BLS numbers may also be fouled up because the agency failed to recognize that retailers hired their year-end workforce earlier this year than last year it did last year because of this year’s earlier launching of holiday sales. “We suspect,” she says, that October employment growth (a higher than expected 151,000 jobs) borrowed from November.” The BLS, which tells me it’s sticking by its November figures, is notorious for revising its monthly jobs numbers both up and down in ensuing months. And that’s precisely what Schnapp predicts will occur again with regard to the November report. In this case, she sees a sharp upward revision closer to the Trimtabs numbers. Interestingly, last Thursday Automatic Data Processing reported its closely watched monthly employment figures, which for November were closer to TrimTabs numbers than those of the BLS. ADP reported 93,000 new jobs, driven by growth in small business hiring. Schnapp rates the November employment showing (her estimated 117,000 job creations) as “okay, but not great,” noting a considerably higher number of new jobs (150,000 to 200,000 a month) are needed to keep pace with new entries into the work force. In recent weeks, a fair number of economists, given perkier retail numbers, including lively auto sales, and somewhat more positive consumer sentiment, have upgraded their GDP growth forecasts for 2011 to between 3% and 4%. The thought of a double-dip recession seems to have largely gone the way of the rotary telephone. Schnapp doesn’t share this ebullience. Her outlook: GDP growth next year will muddle along at about 2.5%, largely due to the drag from housing, the financial woes of local and state governments and a consumer population that is deleveraging. “We’re not on the road to a robust recovery, no way and not on your life, but stuck in a low growth mode for at least another year,” she says. “And don’t ignore the potential shockers, such as a spike in the price of oil, Iran going nuclear or North Korea attacking South Korea. As for the stock market, Schnapp sees a ho-hum 2011, with the S&P 500 (currently around 1,225) trading sideways in a narrow range of say 1,050 on the downside and 1,225 on the upside. In other words, a go-nowhere stock market; so don’t be hot to trot. What do you think? E-mail me at Dandordan@aol.com

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David Isenberg: Armed Humanitarians: Part 2

December 2, 2010

It is time for the second excerpt from the forthcoming book Armed Humanitarians by Nathan Hodge. Click here for the first excerpt . In the first part Hodge detailed how private security contractors while, admittedly, doing necessary, even vital work, could also be pain in the butt, for both Iraqi civilians and U.S. military and that accountability was a “fiction.” In this excerpt Hodge details some of the problems with laws that have been passed to supposedly provide oversight and jurisdiction over PSC if they commit a crime. He also makes a point I have been noting for years; that the State Department has been both complicit in past PSC wrongdoings and hypocritical in their response. Perhaps a future Wikileaks cable will provide detail on this under covered but very important point. Prince did acknowledge one of the main arguments made against armed contractors: That they operated without any oversight or any jurisdiction. “As of 31 December [2004] that ended,” he said. “The president signed a law, the Military Extraterritorial Jurisdiction Act, which previously applied to anyone on a defense contract, now it’s any U.S. dollars that fund a contract overseas, that contractor can be brought to justice by the U.S. Justice Department.” Prince was, in theory, correct. The Fiscal Year 2005 Department of Defense Authorization Act Congress amended MEJA to extend its jurisdictional coverage. The revisions had tightened a loophole to extend jurisdiction to all contractors – not just those employed directly by the U.S. Defense Department. The legislation creating MEJA acknowledged that there had been a longstanding “jurisdictional gap” that had allowed crimes by battlefield contractors to go unpunished. But there was still the problem of enforcement. The report language accompanying the original bill was prescient. “Often, the only remedy available to the United States Government with respect to military dependents and civilian employees and contractors who commit crimes in foreign countries is to limit their use of facilities on the installation where they live, or bar their entry onto the installation altogether, which often causes them to return to the United States,” the report stated. “In any event, however, the fact that the person who committed the act may return to the United States does not give rise to any jurisdiction in the United States to try the crime he or she committed abroad.” That, in effect, is what would happen when a Blackwater contractor shot and killed the local bodyguard of Iraqi Vice President Adel Abdul Mahdi in Baghdad’s Green Zone on Christmas Eve, 2006. The contractor – later identified in the press as Andrew Moonen – was off duty and had been drinking heavily when he wandered near the Iraqi prime minister’s compound, got into an altercation with the bodyguard and shot him three times. The contractor fled the scene, and was later apprehended by the International Zone police, who determined that he was too drunk for questioning. The following day, Blackwater fired him for cause – possession of a firearm while intoxicated – and on December 26, they whisked him out of the country on a flight to Jordan. The contractor then returned to the United States, a free man. Stunningly, the State Department was informed of the incident – and of Blackwater’s arrangements to spirit Moonen out of the country. According to a Diplomatic Security Service incident report, the contractor was returned to the United States “under the authority of a DOS Regional Security Officer.” In internal correspondence that followed, embassy officials discussed ways to paper over the incident. In an e-mail the day after the incident, the Charge d’Affaires (the acting ambassador) urged the Regional Security Officer to follow up and make sure the company did “all possible to assure that a sizeable compensation is forthcoming.” A prompt apology and compensation, the Charge d’Affaires reasoned, would be the “best way” to ensure that the Iraqis did not take measures to sanction Blackwater – or bar them from operating in Iraq. The Charge d’Affaires proposed a payment of $250,000, then $100,000, prompting a diplomatic security officer to complain that such “crazy sums” would tempt Iraqis “to try to get killed so as to set up their families financially.” The State Department and Blackwater agreed on a payment of $15,000 to the slain bodyguard’s family. Summarizing the concerns of the diplomatic security office, an official wrote: “This was an unfortunate event but we feel that it doesn’t reflect on the overall Blackwater performance. They do an exceptional job under very challenging circumstances. We would like to help them resolve this so we can continue with our protective mission.” In other words, the State Department’s Regional Security Office in Baghdad was so preoccupied with protecting diplomats that it was willing to let Moonen walk free. Blackwater was performing its narrow mission magnificently, shielding U.S. diplomats from harm. Company officials often pointed out with pride that no diplomat in their care had ever been killed. But the risk-averse mentality of the Bureau of Diplomatic Security had reached a logical extreme in Iraq. The incident was hushed up, although a slightly inaccurate report did air on the Al-Arabiya satellite television network identifying the shooter as a U.S. soldier. Blackwater would continue operating in Iraq. To Iraqis, that sent a message, that one of our diplomats is worth a hundred of you.

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Bailouts Are For Banks: Unemployed People Get Zilch

December 1, 2010

In Washington, the agenda has long since moved on from bailing out megabanks to figuring out how to stop paying for things that regular people need — luxuries like health care, retirement benefits and unemployment insurance. In the suburbs of Denver, Anthony Roebuck and his family find themselves confronting an action list that seems cruelly divorced from the proceedings in the nation’s capital: They have to figure out how to keep the heat on through the Colorado winter now that his unemployment check has run out. The latest extension of emergency unemployment benefits expired on Tuesday, as a dysfunctional Congress let the deadline go without striking a deal to keep the money flowing. That put Roebuck — who drew his last check on Monday — among the two million or so unemployed Americans facing the imminent loss of their benefits between now and the end of the year. A sheet metal worker by trade, Roebuck, 44, is accustomed to earning his own way through the force of his hands. Since May, he and his family have subsisted on his wife’s paycheck from her job as a university administrator, plus a nearly $500 weekly unemployment check. They slashed away at their grocery bill, cutting out non-essentials such as the fried snacks favored by his 15-year-old son. They traded in their late-model Jeep Cherokee for an elderly Dodge sedan. They quit going to church on Sunday to save the gas money required to get there. Now, the math is set to get uglier still, as they contemplate how to run the household minus his unemployment check — a situation that seems not only impossible but also unfair. How could there have been so many billions for Wall Street, so much room to lower taxes for people with golf memberships and country houses, yet a $500-a-week check to help him pay the rent while he looks for another job suddenly threatens to bankrupt the nation? “It’s like a gut shot,” he says. “I get really upset when I think about it. I have to watch my words or I’m liable to get profane.” Perhaps even more disturbing than the callousness governing the political process is how so many powerful people in Washington are now competing to take credit for depriving the economy of meaningful relief. In the political calculus of the moment, exacerbating the troubles of the most vulnerable has become a pragmatic way to curry favor. Republicans in Congress have held up the extension of unemployment benefits and are also demanding an extension of the tax cuts President George W. Bush handed out to the wealthiest Americans. They are selling this as a stand against fiscally reckless spending and oversized government — a form of pandering that poses dire consequences to the economy. Unlike wealthy people handed tax cuts, laid-off workers receiving unemployment checks tend to inject nearly all of that money directly into the economy, leaving their dollars at the local supermarket, the hardware store, and the auto repair shop, supporting jobs for people who work at those places. Cutting off those checks deprives the economy of cash just as the market is showing tentative signs of improvement. Meanwhile, the Obama administration has become so captive to the budget-cutting-as-progress mantra ruling Washington that it is taking a victory lap for diminishing the costs of the federal bailouts — even as the savings come at the direct expense of the only piece of its rescue package that was designed to aid regular people: its anti-foreclosure program. Earlier this week, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office released an analysis showing that the administration would spend only about $12 billion of the $50 billion that had been dedicated under the primary bailout funds for its signature anti-foreclosure program. This, even as the foreclosure crisis shows no sign of abating. When President Obama announced the program amid great fanfare early last year, he declared that help was on the way for somewhere between three to four million American homeowners who would now be given a chance to lower their monthly payments. But through October, fewer than 500,000 distressed homeowners were making lower payments under the program. The reasons for this abysmal record are many: From its inception, the program has been a fiasco. The giant banks that send out monthly mortgage bills and collect the money for the investors who generally own the notes have repeatedly lost documents sent in by applicants seeking relief. They have forced troubled homeowners to endure interminable stints on hold, waiting to be handed the latest conflicting instruction from another bank representative. They have been told that the good people at Bank of America or J.P. Morgan Chase — to pick on two giants — would love to give them a break, but the greedy investors who own their mortgages will not go along, even though the opposite is often true: The clueless investors, who would be better served by loan alterations that cut their losses, are kept in the dark while the big banks drag out the foreclosure process, capturing fees by funneling orders for fresh appraisals and title searches that they funnel through their own subsidiaries. And even the supposed success stories– the homeowners who have navigated through the rat’s nest of ineptitude and deceit to come out with loan modifications — do not represent a fix to the fundamental problem. Lower payments have come through lowering interest rates and extending the life of the loans, not by writing down the size of the outstanding balances. With millions of people now owing more to the bank than their homes are worth, many have given up and stopped mailing checks to their lender. Many housing experts have argued that the only effective way to curb foreclosures would be to force the mortgage companies to write down loan balances. But the Obama administration, led by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, has consistently shot down the idea of forcing the banks to swallow write-downs, because someone would have to pay the costs. Perhaps the banks, perhaps the taxpayer, and probably both. “This is a conscious choice we made, not to start with principal reduction,” Geithner said late last year, while testifying before a panel convened by Congress to keep tabs on the federal bailouts. “We thought it would be dramatically more expensive for the American taxpayer.” This, from the same man who played a leading role in putting hundreds of billions of dollars in taxpayer money on the line to rescue Wall Street. In an interview Wednesday, Treasury’s assistant secretary for financial stability, Tim Massad, said the department still planned to expend the full share of bailout funds on its anti-foreclosure effort, disputing the Congressional Budget Office’s projection. But he acknowledged that, from inception, the administration’s program was limited by a reluctance to spend taxpayer funds too aggressively. He said Treasury was also confined by Congress in not being able to force mortgage companies to give homeowners relief. The result: a voluntary program that depends upon taxpayer-financed cash incentives for banks, one that has moved too slowly. “We’re not getting as many mods as we hoped,” Massad said, referring to loan modifications. “But we still have two years.” These days, this seems like the only policy imperative with currency in Washington: keeping the lid on costs, and never mind the needs of a nation still grappling with the terrible effects of the recession. Abdication of responsibility has somehow become a political virtue, a sign of fiscal toughness and even moral rectitude. This is the spirit at work in the deficit-cutting plan released Wednesday by the president’s bipartisan commission, which takes aim at Social Security and Medicare spending yet still lowers tax rates. Contrast the new austerity for retirees, laid-off workers, and homeowners facing foreclosure with the unbridled generosity lavished upon corporate American during the worst days of the financial crisis. As the Federal Reserve on Wednesday reluctantly opened the books on how it distributed some $3.3 trillion in aid during the crisis, it became clear that the central bank was basically taking over lousy investments from all comers. Even foreign banks were able to avail themselves of the Fed’s cash, selling toxic assets to the central bank at prices the market never would have paid. Such was the necessary price of staving off the financial apocalypse that might have resulted had the wrath of the market been allowed to carry on — this, we are told repeatedly by the people in charge. The money had to be handed out swiftly and indiscriminately. Fair enough, maybe so, but we have also been told that, eventually, the repairing of the financial system would lead to the healing of the broader economy, and then those facing foreclosure because they are out work would no longer have to worry. Then the millions of jobless people would see their lives restored. And not only has that not happened, but each time the unfortunate human leftovers of the recession have found themselves in need of help just to keep the lights on, we are told (by the same people who spared no expense for the banks) that there is nothing left to give them. Now is the time to get serious about putting our fiscal house in order. The bailout window is closed. Anthony Roebuck does not want a bailout. He wants a job. He spent the summer in a state-financed training program, learning how to construct solar and wind power farms. He is willing to work in renewable energy, though those jobs pay as little as $8 an hour compared to the $23 an hour he brought home from his last position, installing heating and air conditioning systems. And still, no one wants him, knowing that he will up and leave once the higher-paying jobs come back. He has been hitting construction sites, two and three a day, in search of work. And still he is unemployed. He was offered a possible job in Utah, but moving there would entail giving up his wife’s paycheck and pulling his son out of high school. So he is instead becoming expert in a new facet of the American experience, shuffling bills he cannot pay and hoping better days come soon. “Until I can get to work we’re going to be juggling between the light bill and the heat bill,” he says. “What can be late? What can’t be late? What can we skip?”

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Carolyn Ziel: Taking Failure Off the Table — Really!

November 27, 2010

My father helped me get a summer job on a movie my first year in college. I was excited to be working on a major motion picture and a little nervous. I wanted to be a success, not a failure! My Dad gave me some great advice. He said, “No matter what anyone asks you to do, just say yes, even if you don’t know how to do something, say yes. Then go and learn what you need to learn to finish the job”. I took this advice to heart. On that movie set I learned what it meant to be solution-driven. I learned how to be creative and resourceful by focusing on solutions. On movie sets, there is only yes for an answer, it is all about finding a solution. Failure isn’t even an option! Now, if I find myself presented with a challenging situation, I don’t get discouraged or feel defeated. As long as I’m working toward my dream, I’m OK. Most successful people know on some level that they’re going to achieve their dreams. No matter how out of reach their dreams might seem, they take steps each day to move forward. If things don’t go exactly as planned they still keep moving forward. Adapting this mindset will allow you to succeed in big ways. Failure is never the option; the only option is finding a workable solution. That is what Allison Maslan, CEO of Blastoff Life and Business Coaching , did when she had an idea for coaching software: Blastation Interactive Goal Setting and Life Coaching Software . Allison wanted to create an online software experience for her clients. Rather than buy someone else’s software, she developed her own. Although she didn’t know the first thing about software development, she didn’t let that stop her. Allison takes failure off the table. It is never one of her options, period. Allison developed Blastation when she was unable to find adequate goal setting software to use with her coaching clients. “It’s a lively software that helps keep you organized, optimistic and inspired so you can stay on track to make your dream life a reality”. This unique web-based software can be accessed anywhere there is an internet connection. ” Blastation will help you to clarify and attain your large and small life dreams and visions in an exciting and stimulating way”. The software enables users to break their goals down into easy-to-follow incremental steps, called ‘Mini Feats’, that allow bigger projects to be more easily achieved. These steps are then posted on your personalized online Blastation Calendar to keep your personal and professional life organized. Allison thought of everything: Blastation can even send e-mails and host your online address book. “If you are creating something new and you have a fear of failure, you can take a different approach. Whatever happens, whatever wall I hit, I just have to figure out a solution and then I can never fail, I just find a solution”. Allison’s right, when you shift your focus to finding a solution, you rewire your brain. According to David Rock in his book Your Brain at Work , “unmet expectations often create a threat response” and the “brain is built to avoid threat, people tend to work hard to reinterpret events to meet their expectations”. In other words, if we tell our brain something, it listens. Look for solutions and adjust your expectations. David Rock recommends the following: “stay in a positive state of mind, find ways to keep coming out ahead of your expectations over and again, even in small ways”. And maybe most importantly, “when a positive expectation is not being met, practice reappraising the situation”. Direct your brain’s energy into finding solutions. Focus on learning new tools to support your goals. Explore new ideas and new ways of doing things. Allison’s solution was simple: she reached out to an expert software designer. Allison had an idea. She didn’t know how to develop software, but she knew what she wanted and focused on that. She found a solution and her dream materialized in a big way: her software is used internationally! First say “yes” to yourself and your dreams, then take the necessary steps to achieve them. Allison’s motto is, “keep your head pointing towards your dream, walk towards it daily and don’t let anyone tell you it can’t be done”! With this kind of solution-driven attitude anything is possible.

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Edward Muzio: Your Reorganization: Better Left Undone?

November 19, 2010

Reorganization is the drug of choice in many workplaces, and it isn’t hard to see why. Take an organization of people, put someone in a leadership position, and introduce a confusing, far-reaching, ill-defined problem. The leader, feeling the need to live up to his or her title, quickly realizes that the problem is bigger than any one person. If the problem arose in the current state of things, a new future state is needed to solve it. After all, it was Albert Einstein who said that “we cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.” How can you argue with Einstein? And so, the pressure to involve the group, to improve the system, and just to do something leader-like combine, naturally drawing the well-meaning leader to take action on the system. Let’s look to the organizational chart! We will see how things look, and where we can make improvements. To make the lure of the drug even stronger, a line of impressively-credentialed internal and external consultants is standing by to help. Any of them is happy to offer expert insight into possible changes. Whether or not their help is used, their existence lends credibility to the strategy. Credible it is! It’s logical, it feels natural, and it’s much more comfortable than sitting around doing nothing. But there is a terrible, fatal flaw with “the reorg” hiding in plain sight: The org chart has nothing to do with reality. Making changes to a human system based upon an org chart is like planning a drive through Los Angeles by consulting a map of Paris, drawn on a cocktail napkin, by a fifth grader. Consider its history. The org chart is a leftover from long before today’s information age. The first one is believed to have been drawn in the mid 1850s by a railroad superintendent named Daniel McCallum to optimize track construction over long distances. Back then, the organization was top-down and hierarchical. Each worker was a point in the process, and higher-level individuals had broader views of the systems than their subordinates within them. Today’s information age workplace is completely different; Therein lies the problem. Consider the following picture: an org chart on the left, today’s reality on the right. Both images display an overall manager with three supervisors, managing three subordinates each. But the “org chart” completely misses all of the other communication links within the organization and outside of it, which together comprise the majority of information movement. There’s a parallel here. Those of sufficient age may recall the popularity of the “telephone tree,” a prior generation’s tool for information transfer to parents of schoolchildren. Each parent was assigned a position in the tree. When a piece of information — such as a snow-day cancellation — needed to be quickly disseminated to everyone, you would receive a call from your “superior” in the tree, and then you would call your “subordinates” with the update. Each person would make only a few calls, and the information would cascade quickly down the hierarchy. If this doesn’t sound familiar to you, it’s because some years ago e-mail killed the telephone tree. With e-mail, any group member can disseminate information instantly, to some or all of the others, with the click of a button. One parent schedules a pizza party for everyone; another asks half the group for help with fundraising; Four individuals living in the same neighborhood collaborate to arrange a carpool. This new method of communication was adopted rapidly, because it was easier. It rendered the phone-tree obsolete. Perhaps a few schools keep the phone-tree around today. But if you were to attempt to understand a group of parents by studying the phone tree, you would be missing most of the story. That is precisely what an org-chart-based reorganization does. Reorganizers study an obsolete, inaccurate, non-representative, infrequently-used map of a system, and then implement a set of changes to that system based upon the conclusions drawn from the faulty map. In other words, they review the left half of the figure above, and use it to make changes to the right half. Then, in what is perhaps the most insidious step of all, they redraw the inaccurate map — the new org chart — based upon the expected results of the changes, rather than upon the reality of the new situation. To really understand this, consider a situation in which two individuals are removed from the organization. As you can see below, the org chart fails completely in its purpose of adequately representing the real impact to the crystalline network of this change. And yet, the “new org chart” in this scenario will be drawn exactly as it is shown on the left, with the removal of two “boxes.” It will be used going forward as the basis for understanding the system, regardless of what happens in real life. What happens in real life is decidedly different! Person two and person four, for example, are both members of Person one’s staff. Previously, they had little direct contact, and no direct link. But somehow, Person 10 had become a de facto interface between the heads of two departments. When Person 10 departs, this link will be one of more than fifteen broken links in the figure. The looming chaos is completely hidden by the false sense of order implied by the org chart. Most of us have who have been a part of an organizational change have experienced this phenomenon. A seemingly insignificant person retires, for example, and the resultant confusion takes months to sort itself out. Conversely, a manager with an important title changes jobs, and nobody seems to notice. The lesson is clear: No matter how long and hard the org chart is studied, changes to it produce shock waves and impacts that differ wildly from predictions. This is not at all surprising when you realize that the predictions were based upon a faulty map. And yet, for some reason, we keep repeating the same behavior. Sure, an org chart may be useful for defining reporting relationships, assigning responsibility for the completion of annual performance reviews, and for articulating the path of flow for top-down informational bulletins that require live delivery from management. But the next time you’re planning on making wholesale, system wide changes based upon your org chart, I strongly suggest that you stop, think again, and find a different solution to your problem. LA is a big city, and that fifth grader’s map of Paris isn’t going to keep you from getting lost.

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Margaret Heffernan: Science Acknowledges: Women Make Teams Smarter

November 17, 2010

Most companies do little for gender diversity. That’s the news from McKinsey this week. A pathetic 18 percent of the companies they surveyed say that their executive teams visibly monitor programs for gender diversity — even though they know that those programs make a difference. It’s yet another example (if we needed one) of just how blind corporations can be to their own interests. Because in the same month we’ve seen one of the most intriguing and provocative pieces of research to come along for a long time. It started when a team from MIT, Carnegie Melon and Union College set out to look at collective intelligence. Was it even possible to measure it? And, if you could, wouldn’t that mean that you could also measure what did — or did not — make the same team more, or less, intelligent? Great questions. With wonderful results. Turns out, yes you can measure collective intelligence — which the team (very smart but perhaps not wildly imaginative) called ‘c’. ‘C’ outperforms the average intelligence of the group — which is good because otherwise there would be no reason to do teamwork at all. But what’s really interesting was what did not make the teams smarter: motivation, group cohesion or satisfaction. In other words, it didn’t seem to make a big difference how happy the group felt about itself. What did make a difference were these three things: 1. Social sensitivity of group measures . Yes, it matters whether or not people are aware of each others’ feelings. 2. Equality in distribution of conversational turn-taking . Yes it mattered whether everyone got a fair hearing. 3. The proportion of women in the group. Yes women do make a difference, a positive difference. Even if companies aren’t smart enough to pay attention. Two important things to note: first, this did not appear in HR Monthly , or Wish Fulfillment Weekly . It was published in Science which means it was analyzed, dissected and peer-reviewed. You can infer it’s probably not flaky. (It also might be read by scientists who, as a group, still have a long way to go to recognize the value women offer.) Second, it was sent to me by Thomas Seeley whose wonderful book on bees I wrote about earlier. He said this data reminded him of bees. I was just thrilled that it reminded me of real life.

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Patricia Handschiegel: The New Power Girls: Resliency Is The New Black

November 17, 2010

“When life hands you lemons, make lemonade.” As I sat back in bed to write this installment of the New Power Girls tonight, I wondered who might have first said that common saying above. Growing up, every time I heard it, it sounded like one of those cheer leading things people say to make you feel better when things are going bad. But more and more in your adulthood you find that it’s kind of true. You’ve got to navigate and try to make a good outcome when things go the wrong direction in any area of life. In other words, make lemonade. I got to thinking about this tonight as I thought about my current startup, 9 . 9′s two years old and if all goes well, will cash out why it was created in the first place within the next few months. I had launched 9 somewhat unexpectedly — it was in the plan to launch something new. I’m a serial entrepreneur and that’s my job. But I thought it’d come later in the year than it had. In a way, life handed me lemons. 9 in a sense was the juice I squeezed out of it. More and more I keep meeting and hearing about people who have lost work or have been displaced by their market dying. Time and time again, they say they don’t know what to do, and the first thing that comes to mind are all the ways that they can make lemonade. A lot of Americans are probably in this very same spot. Time and time again, I have met so many entrepreneurs who became entrepreneurs out of what actually was some type of inconvenience — a job/career that didn’t allow time for children, divorces, lay offs, you name it. Americans might be thrown a lot of curve balls, but somehow we as a nation and people keep swinging the bat regardless. The world has changed and is continuing to change, but it isn’t necessarily bleak. The media just likes to make things as dramatic or sensational as possible because it’s like the snake oil salesman shaking the rattle. Technology might be replacing and displacing people, but just the same it is creating new opportunities that anybody can learn. In fact, because so much of it is so early, those who can jump in may very likely find themselves cashing out in a bigger way down the road. It’s more than possible to teach an ‘old dog new tricks’ — ie, people can learn new skills and jobs at any age if only they’re willing to lift the preconceived (and often false) idea that they can not. McDonald’s founder was fairly old when he created the first restaurant. The author of Harry Potter wasn’t a 25 year old. I’m constantly amazed and surprised at the resiliency of people everywhere, especially in our country. It’s something that I see a lot among the new modern women in business that I’ve met and know. After all, America was a boot strapped start up in many ways itself when it was born. I realize as I write this, the sooner that we can all get a grip and move on from whatever is causing trouble, be it the economy or whatever issues might go on in our lives, the better off we are. Most of all, it is absolutely possible and in fact, may be just what you needed to get ahead and live better than you ever had before. Power Girls don’t stare at the lemons in life — we look for the juice instead.

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Donna Flagg: When a Bad Boss Becomes a Creature Feature

November 16, 2010

I’ve long been befuddled by Jekyll and Hyde routines of people, especially at work. But my all-time worst experience was with a boss I had early in my career who made the Tasmanian devil look like a tame soul. She was pretty in a scary way, kind of like Elvira. She was also cunning, witty and mean. I, in the meantime, was confused. The fact that she didn’t realize how she siphoned the life from the people who worked for her utterly escaped me. Initially I was her favorite, a position that brought with it special attention and favors like taking time to teach me the same things that she fired my coworkers for not knowing. Her behavior was blatantly contradictory, yet she considered herself fair. I should have seen through her bias and anticipated her about-face much like Dorothy heeded the warning from the Wicked Witch of the West who screeched, ” Just you wait my pretty. ” Yup, you guessed it. She loved me one day and hated me the next. My coworkers and I were mystified that no one seemed to notice or care that a crazy woman worked for the same company we did. So when the CEO shipped us off to some high-end commune in the Catskills for a sales meeting, we thought wishfully that someone had caught on. It was late one Sunday evening when we boarded the kind of dark chartered bus that childhood field trips are made of. The next morning two consultants stood before us on either side of a flip chart; an upbeat school teacher with a strawberry blond bun secured at the nape of her neck, and an overly tanned, hairy-chested psychiatrist sporting a loud button-down shirt that, by the way, should have buttoned up. In my professional opinion it was one or two shy of necessarily concealing his nipples. We spent two days doing team building and problem solving exercises. We had ropes and mazes and bricks. Everyone seemed equally as effected and responded with the same enthusiasm I did. Even my barbarian boss seemed transformed. So naturally, we headed home expecting some sane and civilized behavior from our superiors once we were back in the trenches. But instead of going from good to better, things went from bad to worse. It took only about a week for my boss to turn inside out again in a fit of rage. What happened? What could have gone so wrong? What had been the point to take us from our jobs and spend all that money? Was it not to make us a better team, more productive and profitable as a company? Apparently not. Later, when my boss asked me to write up a report while my father was in intensive care AND I was on vacation, stressing that neither of those would be acceptable reasons to say, “No can do,” I quit. Remarkably, she insisted that she was not administering a multiple choice test and that quitting was not an option either. I quickly realized that her tyranny was slightly more complicated than a mere matter of her being bonkers. But having that experience left me with the distinct conviction that a paycheck is neither synonymous with a license to bully people, nor should a title permit someone to exhibit a total lack of alignment between his or her words and actions. That was many years ago. I often think about what I could have done differently as my mother’s words ring true in my ears. “You can’t rationalize with a crazy person.” Now, I know I did all I could — which was nothing. Find Donna on Facebook

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Raymond J. Learsy: Food — The American Midwest at the Cusp of an Economic Renaissance

November 7, 2010

“The Midwest has lost a manufacturing empire but has not yet found another role.” Words that were written by the New York Times ‘ incisive Op-ed page contributor David Brooks in Friday’s Op-ed “Midwest at Dusk.” He cites the vast American expanse from central New York and Pennsylvania out through Ohio, Indiana spreading to include Wisconsin and Arkansas. Here, Brooks proffers, is the place where the trajectory of American politics is being determined. “If America can figure out how to build a decent future for the working-class people in this region, then the U.S. will remain a predominant power. If it can’t, it won’t.” And yet, here, as hardly elsewhere in this nation, something is stirring that has the potential of becoming a game changer, a uniquely American game changer. This summer past an event took place that has begun to alter the equilibrium of economic trends and influence. In July the Russian government, responding to a disastrous drought, embargoed the export of wheat — unilaterally breaking sales commitments to national buyers throughout the world. The price of wheat and other grains such as corn, soybeans etc. exploded as reserve stocks of grain were being drawn down worldwide. Yet, the underlying thrust of what took place has been barely touched upon. The world, with its steeply growing population and rapidly changing dietary habits (especially in the emerging economies) is on the precipice of food shortage. If not immediately, it will be very soon. It is generally understood that with expanding populations world calorie production will have to double by 2050, but no one quite knows how to achieve this given that the major impact of the “green revolution” (intense application of fertilizers, herbicides and improved seeds) has already reached dangerously diminishing returns. In this coming crisis, America — and the American Midwest — will play a crucial and salutary role. It will become the most crucial provider of food grains to the world, building on an already leading, but barely heralded position of leadership. The United States is now the largest grower and exporter of corn, vital as feed to the food chain, the largest exporter of wheat, and after Brazil the second largest exporter of soybeans. And as supplies of foodstuffs get tighter this position of preeminence will become more and more significant. Now is the moment for a government with vision to lay the groundwork and prepare the breadbasket of America to renew itself and prepare for the destiny that will be thrust upon it. Instead of more overbuilt highways, now is the moment to improve the infrastructure servicing this sector such as refurbishing and extending our inland waterways system over which most of our grain is transported, improving port facilities and refurbishing and adding to our grain storage capabilities both inland and at ports of export loading. Further, that we now initiate a policy of extending to farmers and the agribusiness the kind of government financial support we stood ready to give to Wall Street, the finance industry, and the automobile industry, so that the ground work can be prepared to meet the demand that is verging on the horizon. The Midwest is blessed with vast expanse of fertile land and great human talent as nowhere else in the world, coupled with an extensive inland waterway system permitting crop production to reach world markets. With proper policies in place going well beyond the current US Department of Agriculture assistance programs, now is the moment to extend to our agricultural sector the means to ready itself for the responsibilities and opportunities to come. The Midwest has the potential of becoming in importance, the Saudi Arabia of food — a commodity that will clearly surpass oil in economic, social and political significance. If proper policies are initiated now our Midwest will become the most important real estate in the world. And it will be an economic sector that cannot be outsourced!

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Robert Teitelman: Bernanke, QE2 and a matter of politics

November 4, 2010

The commentary on the Federal Reserve’s second round of quantitative easing — QE2 to the headline writers, which always makes me think it’s time for a cruise — has been heavy, pro, lukewarm and con, though the stock market likes it. Bernanke himself has entered the fray with a column in Thursday’s Washington Post defending the purchase of $600 billion in Treasuries, which critics, like James Grant, blast as simply “printing money.” The argument — deflation versus inflation — is endlessly educational, but I have little (amend that: nothing) to add. What is interesting, however, is the question that began to emerge around the time the Fed stepped in to try to save Bear Stearns Cos.: the central bank and politicization. Indeed, it’s a topic worth pondering two days after a bitterly fought, often bizarre political battle. What do we even mean by the term “politicization,” particularly when it’s applied to a linchpin institution of the economy like the Fed? It’s a big, hairy subject. To some, the Fed has been “politicized” since the day it opened its doors in 1914. The very existence of a central bank was an intrusion into the free market, which explains in part why we kept forming central banks then shutting them down in the 19th century. A second level of politicization occurs when you consider the Fed’s mission. In the days before the Great Depression, when a more decentralized Fed’s center of power was still Benjamin Strong, the head of the New York Fed, the bank had a limited mission that involved providing liquidity in times of panic and — its mission of all missions, like today’s Bundesbank — retaining a strong currency and thus low inflation. It was the era of the gold standard, a mechanism designed to do just that. This, of course, represented a political choice, argued many from the Silverite West, the working classes, the indebted and Progressives. Hard money restricted liquidity and favored the rich and Wall Street, which in turn defended it as both prudential and the natural order of things. When the Great Depression hit, there was unanimity of opinion at Hoover’s Treasury (under Andrew Mellon) and the Fed (Strong died in 1928, leaving no single uber-chairman like Bernanke; the system in the Hoover years of the Depression was led by a banker, Roy Young) that the economic woes resulted from excess — and the Fed tightened the screws. The result: bank failures, massive unemployment and deflation. By the time Franklin Roosevelt was elected, the Fed had lost all credibility and, by the standards that had existed, was politicized by the New Deal to expand its core mission to restart the economy. FDR even ended use of the gold standard. That “mission creep,” in the words of Grant, was made explicit after World War II with the inclusion of full employment into its brief. The fact is, by bureaucratic standards, economic failure nearly always exposes central banks to political interference. This is the third level of politicization: loss of autonomy to its political masters. The Fed only began to regain its autonomy from the White House with the ’50s post-war boom. The Fed officially broke with Truman in 1951 by announcing it would no longer support pegged interest rates, over two decades after the Crash of ’29. And as Grant pointed out the other day, the Fed accepted 12 months of deflation in the mid-’50s without panicking. As a general rule, as the Fed saw its mission expand, the dangers of politicization — that is, a loss of autonomy — increased. The Fed could through monetary manipulation help or hurt the party in power, particularly around election time. Many insist the Fed’s Arthur Burns came under pressure from Richard Nixon to reduce interest rates in 1972 to help his re-election campaign. Nixon, in turn, believed William McChesney Martin’s Fed insured his defeat to John Kennedy in 1960 by raising rates. And Paul Volcker famously undermined Jimmy Carter’s chances for re-election against Ronald Reagan by jacking up rates to kill inflation. (Was that politics or sensible, even heroic, policy? Well, it was policy that had a big political effect.) Today, the conspiracy minded believe that Alan Greenspan left rates low after the dot-com bust so long, thus helping to inflate the mortgage bubble, to help out George W. Bush. Whether that’s true or not will probably never be known; that’s certainly not what Greenspan, who rejects the connection between monetary easing and the real estate bubble, will ever admit. Greenspan had clearly picked up the political clout during his long tenure to insure enormous autonomy (although he also seemed to worry about losing it). And Greenspan wasn’t about to fight the need to create jobs. Indeed, since Volcker managed to quell the inflationary beast, job creation has assumed top billing. Jobs, of course, as we’ve just discovered in the midterms, are an intensely political subject; and “job creation” is a necessary mantra for both parties. In that sense, Bernanke’s Fed is irremediably politicized, though not overtly partisan. But again there’s “politicized” and there’s “politicized.” The severity of the financial crisis, much of which was blamed on Fed action and inaction, plus the intimate coordination of Fed and Treasury during the crisis, opened the door to calls to rein in the central bank and stirred up libertarians in the Tea Party like Rand Paul that would like to see the Fed disappear. The Fed’s enhanced role in systemic regulation, undercut only by the Financial Stability Oversight Board and the consumer agency, paradoxically offers another threat to its autonomy: A higher profile creates a bigger target. Bernanke did battle against a number of attempts to audit its operations (an initiative of Rand pere Ron Paul) and to reduce its powers, particularly in terms of regulation. To do so he engaged in what normally would be viewed as politics: engaging in town halls to explain what the Fed does, and, as he did today, writing newspaper columns. It’s an odd sight: To battle politicization, he must act like a retail politician. Bernanke is clearly acutely sensitive to his political problem. And that very sensitivity may explain his willingness to engage in QE2, particularly since the administration does not appear to have access to fiscal tools — tax cuts, spending — to stimulate effectively. QE is such a technical ploy that it’s unlikely to become a matter of back-fence conversations. And Bernanke did wait until the day after the election to announce the program. All this is very tricky, however. To avoid further raids on his autonomy, Bernanke has to attempt a scheme that plays with the fire of inflation and that he long avoided. And to eschew overt politics he must engage in politics. There’s no escape. The only nonpolitical Fed is the dead one. Robert Teitelman is editor in chief of The Deal.

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Brian Whetten: The Death of the Dilbert: Why Your Children Will Need to Love Their Jobs

November 4, 2010

Given that she’s only 19 days old, perhaps it’s too soon for me to be thinking about my daughter’s career. Yet two recent articles got me thinking about the deep changes our economy is going through, and what these tectonic shifts are going to mean for her generation. In Time Magazine, Fareed Zakaria pointed out that there are basically three types of jobs in America. Unskilled service jobs (such as waiter or security guard) Skilled, routine jobs (such as sales, office management and factory workers) Managerial, technical and professional jobs (such as executives, entrepreneurs and doctors) In other words, you can flip burgers, shuffle papers or innovate. And over the last 100 years, our country has been built on the backs of “middle America”; the hard working men and women who worked 9-5 jobs, and did the work they were told to, so they could bring their paychecks home to their families. The majority of today’s middle class jobs involve skilled but routine work; it can be boring and unfulfilling, but at least is safe and predictable. Perhaps this is why Dilbert is one of our funniest, most popular cartoons. I mean, who can’t relate to the idiocies and inefficiencies in his world? But here’s the thing. Dilbert is dying. While the number of unskilled jobs and professional jobs have both been increasing, even in the face of this recession, the number of skilled, routine jobs — the bread and butter work of the middle class — is falling through the floor. Here’s why. One of the fundamental requirements of business is the incessant drive to “automate or delegate.” Successful entrepreneurs and executives are constantly looking for ways to offload the 90% (the urgent but routine tasks that so quickly fill up each day) so they can focus on the 10% (the important, innovative work that makes all the difference in the longer term.) Up until 10 years ago, the most efficient way to do this was to build a factory or office building, fill it with employees, and create handbooks that spelled out every aspect of their jobs. However, the twin forces of technology and globalization have changed that. Today, the first choice is to get a computer to do something. The second choice is to hire someone in China or India to do it. Then it’s only if those two options fail that it actually makes sense to hire someone in America and pay them a decent, living wage. This shift isn’t something that’s going to go away. And it’s not something that can be solved by passing new laws, by getting mad at people, or by creating yet another investment bubble. As Thomas Friedman points out, Just doing your job in an average way — in this integrated and automated global economy — will lead to below-average wages. Sadly, average is over. We’re in the age of “extra,” and everyone has to figure out what extra they can add to their work to justify being paid more than a computer, a Chinese worker or a day laborer. “People will always need haircuts and health care,” says Katz, “and you can do that with low-wage labor or with people who acquire a lot of skills and pride and bring their imagination to do creative and customized things.” Their work will be more meaningful and their customers more satisfied. Innovation, creativity, lifelong learning, passion, entrepreneurship, personal mastery — these are the qualifications our children are going to need in order to do well in the 21st century. They’re the qualifications we’re all going to need. And at the end of the day, these traits come down to one, seemingly un-business-like thing: love. True, lasting success is increasingly going to be measured by our ability to love our work, to love learning, and to love the people we serve. Do you really care about your work? And will your children? Because if they don’t care, they’re going to do an average job. And average just won’t do. At one level, our society already gets this, as witnessed by the ever-increasing pressure being placed on kids to do whatever it takes to succeed. (Get better grades! Better scores! Better hobbies! Now!) But even more important than what we achieve is why we achieve it. When we do things because we “should,” because we want others’ approval, or just because we want the money, sooner or later things fall apart. (Exhibit A: The financial crisis. Exhibit B: Britney Spears.) So how can we help our children find and follow their callings, instead of just training for a career? How can we tap in to our own passions, and find ways to do what we love that also pay the bills? How can we evolve our educational systems so they better honor the whole person? And how can we learn how to do business in a new, different, more loving way? I’d love to hear your thoughts on these important questions.

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Vivian Norris de Montaigu: An Increasingly Important Debate: Microfinance as a Non-Profit or Possible IPO?

November 4, 2010

Please watch the recent debate between the founder of the Not for Profit Grameen Foundation, Alex Counts, and the founder of the once Not for Profit organization, Indian SKS Microfinance, Vikram Akula. SKS became a For Profit company in 2005 and went public in 2010 with an IPO raising $358 Million. Both focused on Microfinance, loaning to the world’s “poor”. The Grameen Foundation’s fund manages $25 million for MFIs around the world and includes a technology focus as well. Both Alex Counts and Vikram Akula worked with Muhammad Yunus and the original Grameen Bank lending model. The for profit architecture raises a disturbing question at this turning point in Microfinance. There are over three billion people living on less than $1 a day and need access to financial services. But as they pay back (and the Grameen model loaning to women has proven to be especially successful as they pay back at around 98%) they are virtually paying back themselves as the women of Grameen are also the owners of the bank. In the case of a for profit Microfinance lending situation which does indeed tend to find a more capital more quickly, “investors” loan money to the poor, and then those investors pocket high returns on loans with high interest rates and a return on their money which they are not now finding at “home” in traditional investments and in the West in general. Though interest rates are still high on traditional Grameen style loans the interest is paid back to the bank the women own, thus to themselves, to help finance more loans, a personalized person to person weekly service, savings and insurance, as well as studies which measure the social impact on those same borrowers/owners of the MFI. This split between the increasing presence of for profit MFIs and the traditional not for profit world of microlending has created a real divide in the world of Microfinance. As I listened to the debate and to the arguments put forth by Vikram Akula I intellectually understood that the one way to raise the billions needed from the capital markets to allow for loans to literally every poor person who wanted a loan and to do so quickly was to make it into a commercial venture, and yet alarm bells were going off in my head. It took Grameen Bank decades to loan to as many people as are now loaned to by the for profit SKS. But I kept thinking about something Dr Muhammad Yunus, the founder of the Grameen Bank and winner of the 2006 Nobel Peace Prize, had repeatedly said about the different forms of Microfinance…that if the lending became a for profit business, we would end up with the same situation Microfinance was created to stop, that of loan sharking. In other words, we would eventually have to re-create true Microfiancne all over again because there would be a huge risk that for profit Microfinance could end up playing the role of the loan shark. And that could bring down all the good works of Microfinance. Donor capital in a for profit situation does allow for a more rapid achievement of large scale lending, but it also creates a moral dilemma, the most dramatic one being, the fact that it reinforces a kind of economic colonization of the rich versus the poor. Think about it, as Yunus says, we all have parts of ourselves which are both selfless and selfish. The selfish part can go and make profits in so many sectors, building businesses, supporting entrepreneurs…that is all wonderful and at the heart of healthy capitalism. But the selfless part, Dr Yunus asserts, that is the part that can interact with Microfinance in a way which demonstrates a huge social impact. This is also at the base of his idea of Social Businesses, in which the profits of a company formed as a social business, are measured by its social impact, not just the money which comes in (which should indeed cover the investment and allow it to function in a no loss no dividends way with any profits allowing for replication and expansion of the effects of the social impact). We have seen with the Danone Grameen social business yogurt factory in Bangladesh that private companies have a huge amount to gain by all that they learn from social businesses which they can then apply to their for profit side of their business. There is something people tend to overlook when talking about for profit and even social business type approaches, that the ones who are doing the “helping” or “investing” are not only in some cases making back financial profits (in the case of an IPO or commercial for profit MFI) but are also learning how these new “developing world” markets and micro-distribution systems (and how often women are at the heart of them) work which can allow them to have a foot in the door in their future for profit investment activities and other business growth. We in the West, are looking for new places where we can come up with higher returns for our money…and in the cases of for profit MFIs some of these investors are already billionaires or become ones through their for profit MFIs (Compartamos in Mexico for example). Is there not something simply immoral in already being incredibly wealthy and then making even more profits off the backs of the poorest in the world? And then not even acknowledging that we are indeed learning from what they already know how to do much better than we do? Grameen style Microlending is based on trust. For profit lending is not. This is also a huge difference. I would have to agree with Muhammad Yunus and say that this kind of for profit lending is indeed a repeat of the villager loan shark model. We see it in the West now more than ever during the Recession/Depression with the increase in check cashing, payday loans and even foreign remittance ripoffs. It hurts the poor in the end and it ends up creating an even bigger gap between the wealthy and increasing pool of poor people. It sets the standards for a new kind of economic colonization especially when the investors in the for profit MFIs are wealthy foreigners. (I just realized that MFI could also be in some ways the IMF). Commercial approaches are not all bad nor are all IPOs to mobilize capital, as Alex Counts asserts, but he clearly states his disagreements. He defines three types of MFIs: 1) Unethical 2) Ethical and profit maximizing 3) Ethical and social purpose driven. He asserts that for profit MFIs should focus on benchmarks to measure themselves with the Poverty Index created by various well respected organizations such as the Ford Foundation and Grameen. They should ask themselves questions such as: Are these MFIs really focusing on the poorest of the poor? And with all the profits of the commercial models, how much of it goes back to pay for social impact studies to measure their “success”? Private benefit, foreign investors, and caps of profits which can bring down interest rates are areas which need to be focused on as people “cash in” on commercial MFI successes. Grameen Bank is owned 95% by its clients and without foreign ownership but once the IPO happened the SKS clients/borrowers owned smaller part of the overall bank whereas the (some foreign) directors owned and profited much more. Grameen’s directors do not profit at all which keeps them focused on social impact. Also Grameen helped its fellow microcredit organizations to help grow Microcredit. So its “competitors” are also its allies. This is sadly not the case in the world of for profit MFIs. Real sustainability and true growth must include elements of deep solidarity and commitment to focusing on helping the poor, and the realization that, “I am Another Yourself”.

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Wall Street’s Latest Gold Rush? The Booming China Market

October 27, 2010

BEIJING/HONG KONG (Reuters, By Steve Eder and Denny Thomas ) – Morgan Stanley (MS.N) chief executive James Gorman wasn’t going to miss his chance. It didn’t matter that he was on holiday. Gorman dropped everything and flew to Beijing last April. He wanted to show up in person to make sure his firm got a piece of what was shaping up to be the biggest initial public offering in history. In Beijing, Gorman spent hours rehearsing with his team for a half-hour pitch to executives of Agricultural Bank of China (601288.SS)(1288.HK), whose IPO would eventually raise $22 billion. “For a half-hour bake-off, he came all that way,” Wei Christianson, Morgan Stanley’s China CEO, said in an interview last month from her office near Financial Street in Beijing. As he practiced, the Australian-born CEO debated with colleagues about whether the Chinese bankers would want to hear his stories about farming in the outback. Gorman was not the only top Wall Street executive looking to get in on the AgBank deal. JPMorgan (JPM.N) CEO Jamie Dimon and Deutsche Bank CEO (DBKGn.DE) Josef Ackermann also went to China to make their pitch, and in the end all three banks secured an underwriting assignment for the bank’s Hong Kong offering. For a while at least, with their eyes dead set on the AgBank pot of gold, global bankers could set aside concerns about the challenges they face in China, a market they are desperately trying to crack but where they are finding more setbacks than successes. Why they want in is no mystery. Economists at Goldman Sachs believe that mainland China’s market capitalization will rise to $41 trillion by 2030 from $5 trillion now. That would make China’s stock market the biggest in the world. U.S. market cap is expected to grow to $34 trillion from $14 trillion over that time. But with China, American financial powerhouses may have met their match. Here, government connections and family ties can trump decades of banking experience and western swagger. So for all their efforts — and kowtowing — this is likely to remain one tough market Wall Street firms. GOLD RUSH In Beijing, where the towering gray headquarters of the world’s largest banks — Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398.SS)(1398.HK), China Construction Bank (601939.SS) (0939.HK) and Bank of China (601988.SS) (3988.HK) — cast a long shadow, Wall Street banks are still on the outside looking in. The towers in and around Financial Street wouldn’t look out of place on Wall Street. But looks can be deceiving. “You can’t just come in here and act like this is New York and try to operate the same way you would in New York,” said Philip Partnow, who heads China M&A for UBS (UBS.N) (UBSN.VX). Global banks trying to jumpstart their China operations are tangled in a web of strict regulation, culture clashes and politics. They worry too that even the sweat equity they are putting into training their partners in the ways of western banking will be lost. Some wonder whether China’s long-term plan includes their foreign guests from Wall Street. “At some point, the Chinese want to get to the point where they don’t need the foreign investment banks,” said Michael Werner, a Hong Kong-based China banking analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein. China’s domestic “A Share” IPO market is especially tightly controlled. Even though global banks are actively underwriting listings for Chinese firms on the Hong Kong exchange, they are being shut out of the mainland IPO market. The China IPO market has reached $56 billion so far in 2010, more than five times what it was a decade ago. Despite such torrid growth, major U.S. banks have moved down the underwriting rankings, while domestic banks have solidified their spots at the top. Global banking powers like Goldman Sachs (GS.N), Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan have an investment banking presence in China, which connect Chinese companies, often state-owned entities, with foreign capital. The Chinese banks have not built up their international distribution networks yet, leaving the door open foreign banks to get a piece of the market. But what happens when China’s banks and its growing ranks of regional securities firms are able to shoulder the load? Some foreign bankers fear they will be sidelined, with years of investment lost, and invaluable know-how left in the hands of their Chinese partners. “Basically, it is a big technology transfer that is going on here — and then the Chinese shut the door,” said Gordon Chang, author of the book ‘The Coming Collapse of China’. “They’ve done this so many times.” CULTURE CLASH One day a decade ago, during China’s mid-autumn festival, CICC CEO Levin Zhu was the last one to leave the office. He was working late into the night in a smoke-filled room on the China Petroleum & Chemical Corp (Sinopec) (0386.HK) (600028.SS) IPO. By that time, Morgan Stanley’s influence on CICC had shrunk in part because Zhu had wrested control of the bank from the Wall Street firm, reducing it to a passive investor. It was a far cry from the more engaged role that Morgan Stanley had envisioned when helped to launch the joint venture. When Morgan Stanley began the JV, its majority partner, China Construction Bank, was purely a commercial bank and had virtually no investment banking experience. That’s what Morgan Stanley brought to the table. Morgan Stanley brought seasoned bankers, its brand, and an invaluable amount of know-how to the joint venture. The information would be critical to CICC getting off the ground. With CICC, Morgan Stanley found itself on the inside of a successful investment bank, but one that was fraught with culture clashes and internal warring between western bankers and their Chinese counterparts, according to people who worked in the joint venture. THE RIDDLE Levin Zhu, who was a riddle to some of his Morgan Stanley counterparts, personified the cultural differences that make or break joint ventures. Zhu is what is known in China as a “princeling,” the offspring of a powerful politician. The son of former Chinese premier Zhu Rongji, he studied meteorology before going into finance and eventually landing atop CICC. Some former Morgan Stanley executives remain perplexed by Zhu, who they say understood finance and investment banking, but worked odd late hours and appeared to rely too much on his father’s political ties. Zhu, with his political clout, succeeded in reducing Morgan Stanley to a passive investor for much of the past decade, removing the Wall Street bank from management decisions and giving complete control of the operation to the Chinese. Morgan Stanley’s interest in exiting CICC came to light as early as 2007, but the bank is still waiting for approval from regulators to sell its stake. Media reports have indicated that approval could come soon. The slow-moving process has delayed Morgan Stanley’s plans to apply for a license with a new partner because rules forbid the banks from having two joint ventures simultaneously. And China does not seem to be in a hurry to create another competitor. Despite the history, Morgan Stanley refuses to speak ill of its CICC endeavor. MANY RISKS In September, Reuters met with a number of executives and investment bankers from global banks, all of which are jockeying for position in the Chinese market. The executives offered a positive outlook for China and spoke with hope and ambition about building operations there. With China expected to emerge as the largest market in the world — it’s economy is growing more than 10 percent annually — bankers are careful not to say anything that could catch the attention of regulators and potentially hurt their access. “A lot of what these people say publicly, that China is going to be great, just cannot be true; there are too many risks,” said Victor Shih, who teaches political science at Northwestern University. Foreign banks are under pressure to appear bullish China because they are trying to sell Chinese investments to clients, he adds. But if China’s growth goes as expected, there is no doubt it will be a boon to financial intermediaries who stand to see billions of dollars in yearly revenues over the next two decades — making it all the more critical for Wall Street banks to become true players in the market. LONG-TERM PROSPECTS Executives from Goldman and UBS, two banks that are among the best-positioned in China, were upbeat about the long-term prospects. “I think people thoroughly understand that long-term is long-term,” said Mark Machin, co-head of Asia investment banking for Goldman Sachs, who has been in Asia for 16 years. “These businesses and relationships don’t come in a month or week, they take years. We are building for a very long time. Everybody understands that,” he said. UBS talks about how it has found success “swimming with the current” in China. “What are the government’s priorities in China and how can I align my activities with their goals?” UBS’s Partnow said, explaining how his firm has found success in moving with regulators. Even though some bankers privately share frustrations about the strict hand of Chinese regulators and the pace at which they move, publicly the executives measure their words when talking about the government. Robert Morrice, Barclays’ Asia-Pacific CEO, says he understands where the Chinese regulators are coming from. “I try to put myself in their position,” he said. “If I were them I would want to control international entrance to my marketplace because you have to have the right participants.” THE DANCE As banks salivate over the possibilities, there are some doubters, however. One of them is James Chanos, the hedge fund manager known for correctly predicting the demise of Enron. Since the start of 2010 he has been making the case that China is built on a real estate bubble that is likely to burst. “I don’t see this ending well,” Chanos said from his New York office. “The bulls think the Chinese authorities will slowly let air out of the bubble. History is not on their side.” The slowdown might be starting already. Property investment is set to grow 26.8 percent for all of 2010, slowing from a rise of 37.2 percent in the first seven months of the year, according to a report from a top China economic planner. Chanos does not speak Mandarin and he has never been to Beijing. But he knows numbers, and his predictions do not look good for Wall Street banks hoping to find gold in China over the long term. “China is not going to be a driver of their profitability,” he said. When Gordon Chang, the author, considers how banks are tripping over one another to get an edge in China, it conjures up memories of former Citigroup CEO Charles Prince’s infamous comment before the U.S. housing crisis: “As long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance.” “When your competitors do something, you’ve got to do it as well,” said Chang. “But I think they’re all missing something.” Chang, a lawyer who worked in China and Hong Kong for two decades, also points to the overheated real estate market. He said he believes that foreign banks are already getting hints that China could be on a course for trouble. Goldman recently pared its stake in the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China by $2.3 billion. Earlier, Bank of America pared down its interest in the China Construction Bank to raise $7.3 billion. “That’s not what you would do if you were truly bullish about it,” Chang said. (Writing by Steve Eder; Additional reporting by Michael Flaherty in Hong Kong and Kang Xize in Beijing; Editing by Jim Impoco and Ted Kerr) Copyright 2010 Thomson Reuters. Click for Restrictions .

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Tom Fox: Rethinking the Workplace in the 21st Century

October 27, 2010

As the director of the Partnership for Public Service’s Center for Government Leadership, I spend a lot of time interacting with federal leaders about a wide range of management issues. In my discussion with these leaders, there is one topic that consistently comes up: teleworking. Yet with all the talk from federal managers and their employees about the desirability of teleworking in government, it has led to insufficient progress and action. In fact, the federal government who, once a leader in teleworking and other work flexibilities, has lost its momentum with less than six percent of the 1.9 million federal workforce — about 102,900 employees — teleworking at least one day a month. One of the major barriers to implementing telework in federal agencies is the assumption by managers that the physical presence of employees equals strong performance. They believe better performance measures are often not available to them. However, it’s important that federal managers remember that performance is measured by productivity and results, not by face time. When strategically deployed, teleworking and other flexible work arrangements can help improve employee performance, job satisfaction, and work-life balance, and decrease the costs of commuting by getting employees off the road on scheduled days of the week or by allowing for nontraditional hours that can result in shorter commutes. Furthermore, with thousands of federal employees eligible to retire and our government in critical need of specialized professional skills, this is a critical time for federal agencies to change the way flexible work arrangements are viewed. To attract and retain the best talent, federal agencies need to use flexible programs as a strategic tool. The key for federal managers is to design a teleworking policy that makes the most of your employees’ time and efforts. With October marking National Work & Family Month, here are four tips for effective implementation in your office: Forget about the old ways. Before entering the fray of telecommuting, you’ll need to banish thoughts of your employees sitting around in their pajamas watching game shows all day. Quite the contrary. Research shows that telecommuting employees work longer hours because they’ve avoided wasting time sitting in traffic. Establish the rules. The expectations for telecommuting employees and for managers should be crystal clear. At the outset, define employee accessibility during work hours, office coverage, unexpected mission-critical work demands and procedures to deal with abuse. As with leadership in any situation, articulating expectations is critical. Focus on outcomes, not face time. Work output and positive outcomes are the measure of value, not face time. You’ll need to engage in the hard work of ) determining which jobs are appropriate for teleworking and identifying concrete performance measures to ensure that they’re achieving your team’s goals while out of the office. In other words, trust but verify. Show them the money. Reducing the amount of people in the office means reducing the amount of office space and equipment you need, which in turn reduces spending. I don’t know of a boss who wouldn’t be impressed with your ability to cut costs especially when that’s paired with better results. Make sure you build in the cost-benefits into your budget, including the costs of any technology needs. One example of a successful government telework program is the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (PTO), where 82 percent of eligible employees telework. Or check out the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), where one employee moved to Kenya when her husband was transferred there. She has been working remotely from Africa since the move and meeting or exceeding all of her obligations, according to James McDermott, the NRC’s director of human resources.

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Gibson Vance: U.S. Chamber: Civil Justice Hypocrites

October 27, 2010

In a speech delivered earlier this month, U.S. Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Tom Donohue called litigation “one of our most powerful tools for making sure that federal agencies follow the law and are held accountable.” But replace the words “federal agencies” with “negligent corporations,” and the sentence would be unlikely to ever come out of Donohue’s mouth. Especially considering that today is the Chamber’s annual Legal Reform Summit – an event underwritten by its multinational corporate members that promotes undermining the civil justice system to weaken the basic legal protections of American workers and consumers. The Chamber’s hypocrisy – blocking justice for everyday Americans while using the courts liberally for its own pro-corporate agenda – is the subject of a new report released today by the American Association for Justice (AAJ). The report exposes the Chamber as one of the most aggressive litigators in Washington, entering lawsuits at a rate of twice weekly. Rare is the case involving any kind of business issue that does not prompt a filing from the Chamber’s litigation arm – be it litigating to force workers, instead of employers, to pay for their own safety equipment; opposing any move to combat climate change; or fighting on behalf of lead paint manufacturers, big tobacco and asbestos. In the wake of the economic meltdown, consider the Chamber’s role in opposing financial reforms. Since 1998 – beyond spending at least $380 million lobbying on behalf of Wall Street – the Chamber has entered litigation over and over in its effort to roll back financial reforms and defend the likes of corporate fraud poster children AIG and Enron. It filed a brief defending former Enron CEO Jeffrey Skilling before the Supreme Court in U.S. v. Skilling , arguing that enforcing the fraud laws under which Skilling had been convicted would deter legitimate business dealings. It also filed briefs seeking lower sentences for Merrill Lynch executives convicted in the Enron scandal. And then there’s AIG, the bailed-out insurance giant that gave nearly $25 million to the Chamber to start the Institute for Legal Reform (ILR), the very mission of which being to prevent the American public from holding negligent corporations accountable in court via “tort reform.” In return for its hefty financial support, AIG received a lobbying and PR campaign pushing Wall Street’s case – at the same time that AIG and its CEO Hank Greenberg were being investigated by numerous agencies on a variety of fraud charges. AIG’s current CEO sits among those of other insurance, oil and drug companies on ILR’s 46-person board. These are the corporations that have the most to gain by blocking the legal system to the American public. The Chamber also litigates against the regulators themselves. In 2005, it filed suit against the SEC to block a reform measure designed to protect the interests of consumers investing in mutual funds. Of course, after the financial meltdown, that push for deregulation was replaced, incredibly, by a demand that the government instead bailout corporations. And even in this bailout, the Chamber lobbied to include provisions that gave complete immunity to those who committed fraud, protected executive golden parachutes, and deprived families from protecting their mortgages through bankruptcy. It then fought tirelessly against financial regulatory reform legislation, promising it would “continue to work vigorously through all available avenues – regulatory, legislation and legal” to block the legislation. The Chamber’s “one rule for corporations, another rule for everybody else” motto has come at the expense of our entire financial system, ill-treated workers and injured consumers. Of course, the Chamber has every right to seek what it believes to be justice in a court of law, even if representing the most deplorable corporate interests. But it must be called out when it then spends millions of dollars to prevent Americans from holding wrongdoers accountable in the same courtrooms it uses aggressively to advance the agenda of its multinational corporate membership. All should have access to the civil justice system. But this right to justice belongs to all Americans – not just to the Chamber and big business. To see AAJ’s report, “The Chamber Litigation Machine: How the Chamber Uses Lawsuits to Keep Americans Out of Court,” visit www.justice.org/USChamber.

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John Feffer: What’s So Funny About Outsourcing?

October 26, 2010

What were NBC executives thinking? The unemployment rate remains near double digits, and many Americans have simply stopped looking for work. And what does the network premiere this fall but a sitcom called Outsourced about an American manager sent to run a call center in India. The jokes revolve around funny names, unappetizing food, Sikh turbans, arranged marriages. “It’s hard to know what a normal smell is here and what isn’t,” says Todd Dempsy, the culturally insensitive manager played by Ben Rappaport, in last week’s “Touched by an Anglo” episode . And there’s indeed something fishy about a show that capitalizes on U.S. jobs going overseas during an economic downturn. On the other hand, Outsourced introduces American viewers to bhangra music and lots of Indian faces. It makes fun of the inanities of American culture (bachelorette parties, pimping cars, fake vomit). The acting is pretty good, including the very funny Sacha Dhawan and Anisha Nagarajan. An inter-cultural romance beckons on the horizon. There’s even the occasionally pointed comment, such as the assistant manager Rajiv’s aside to his American boss that “this country is just a cash register to you.” And it’s hard to remember when a prime time show took place somewhere other than the United States. If you get all of your information about the world from network television, you might not even be able to locate Canada on a map (oh, yeah, that place just to the right of Northern Exposure ). The premise of Outsourced is that Todd, the American manager, is saddled with a B team of call center employees — quirky but loveable underdogs who are just struggling to get by. In other words, American audiences are being asked to sympathize with a group of Indian workers lucky to have the jobs that Americans have recently lost. That the show succeeds in finding an audience — an average of 6.3 million viewers a week, making the show the #1 new network show so far this season — is quite an achievement. Or it’s another sign of the gulf between cosmopolitans who benefit from globalization and blue-collar workers whose wages have gone steadily downhill because of competition from abroad. Some people appreciate the 24-hour customer service line, regardless of the accent of the person on the other end. Others are strictly “Buy American.” Of course, sometimes the same person lost her job last week at the factory and this week shops at WalMart to save money by getting cheap shirts from Sri Lanka, cheap produce from Mexico, and cheap Halloween decorations from China. President Barack Obama has been on both sides of the debate. During the presidential election, as Foreign Policy In Focus contributor Roger Bybee explains in Obama’s About-Face on Trade , “both Obama and rival candidate Hillary Clinton continued to focus on free trade and the flight of jobs offshore. They felt compelled to do so to woo Democratic voters infuriated by corporations abandoning U.S. workers and communities. These perceptions are validated by data from Public Citizen estimating that the United States has lost about 4.9 million jobs and 43,000 factories because of free trade deals like the North American Free Trade Agreement and normalization of trade relations with China.” As president, meanwhile, “Obama has been waging a long-running battle against offshoring in general, and to India in particular,” writes FPIF contributor Saif Shahin in Obama: Blowing It on India . “Last year, he urged U.S. companies to ‘say no to Bangalore, yes to Buffalo.’ Two months ago, he signed into law a steep hike in the fees of some visa categories preferred by professionals working for Indian companies where information technology (IT) jobs are outsourced. The extra money will go into building a better border fence with Mexico.” But the president has also supported free-trade agreements with South Korea, Panama, and Colombia. And he pushed through bailouts for U.S. companies without conditions that would have restricted their outsourcing of jobs. He surrounded himself with a free-trade clique from Wall Street, so what did you expect? Progressives face a somewhat different dilemma on this issue. On the one hand, we have always stood with labor unions to support the creation (and retention) of good manufacturing jobs. On the other hand, we push for the radical reduction in global poverty. The rise of new service and manufacturing centers in China and India alone has pulled hundreds of millions out of poverty. “It’s possible to make the case that China’s success in bringing masses of peasants out of poverty–as many as 400 million and counting–is the single most important event in the world in the past quarter-century,” writes Robert Dreyfuss in The Nation . “To be sure, much of China’s growth since the late ’70s has come at the expense of the environment and of workers laboring under atrocious conditions.” In theory, the two positions can be reconciled. We must back trade and other policies that raise wages and provide good benefits in countries that use low-wage labor as their comparative advantage. In the case of chocolate, for instance, it’s not just low-wage labor but child labor and slavery that goes into the making of so much of the candy we hand out on Halloween, as Andrew Korfhage explains in this OtherWords op-ed. Tax policies that reduce the enormous disparity between CEO pay and the rest of the workforce would also help to level the playing field. In this way the national interest would converge with the global interest. Even if passed, however, such reforms would take some before equalizing wages and reducing the flow of jobs from the United States to India. In the meantime, the opportunity to hire a workforce that can give you “follow-the-sun” service at low wages and in English is an irresistible combination. Moreover, it’s become more difficult in an age of sustainability to make the rising-tide- lifts-all-boats argument. Environmentalists acknowledge that U.S. consumers are simply going to have to cut back on our disproportionate use of world resources if we are to have an equitable solution to the climate change problem. It’s nice to argue that the wages and benefits of workers around the world should be raised to American standards (and preferably those of the 1960s before real wages started to decline). But like a world that owns as many cars as Americans, is such a global wage regime environmentally feasible? Or will the gradual rise of wages in places like China and India necessarily involve a gradual decline in wages in places like the United States and Europe? Don’t expect Outsourced to wrestle with these difficult questions. It’s a sitcom, after all. But it remains a remarkable change in the zeitgeist that millions of Americans are willing, week after week, to watch and root for so many non-Americans (who are not kicking a soccer ball). If nothing else, Outsourced humanizes the people so often demonized for taking American jobs. Even the Buy America crowd can take some measure of solace when watching the show. Except for a few framing shots, the show is filmed in Los Angeles with American actors. However, director Ken Kwapis says that if the show is successful , he’ll do more work on location. Is Outsourced itself going to be outsourced? Subscribe to FPIF’s World Beat here . Sign up with FPIF on Facebook . Follow FPIF on Twitter. Follow John Feffer on Twitter.

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